Source:MattNovak’sPaleo-Futureblog
From Gov2.0 in 2010
… to Gov3.0 in 2020
What’s
Next?
EDB © 2010, Antonio Lo Cascio
Page 2
EDB 2010
The trouble with our times
is that the future is not
what it used to be PaulValery
Source: Matt Novak’s Paleo-Future blog
Source: Matt Novak’s Paleo-Future blog
Page 5
EDB 2010
Page 6
EDB 2010
Page 7
EDB 2010
From change as the
exception
to …
…
change
as the norm
Underlying
megatrends that
are shaping
tomorrow
Towards 2020
Once again, industrialisation
is changing our society…
.. but now with an abundant
access to raw materials:
CPU capacity continues to
double every 18 months
(”Moore’s Law”)
130x...
Storage capacity continues to
double every 12 months
(”Kryder’s Law”)
2,000x
(in 10 years)
… and then, with startling
speed; Network bandwidth
triples every 18 months
(”Gilder’s Law”)
ICT
∑Possibilities
∞→
ICT
∑Price → 0
Two remarkable rules seem to apply
for the primary means of production
in the informa...
Page 14
EDB 2010
$600M
x36
STILL…
«Cheap, utility-
supplied computing
will ultimately
change society as
profoundly as cheap
electricity did»
Nicholas Carr
The widespread democratisation of
means of production and distribution is
impacting and transforming our society
more than...
Et voilà; Une
explosion de
l'information!
It is estimated that one week of
newspaper content …
.. equals more information than
one person received during a
lifetime in the 18th century
It is calculated that the global content
production this year will amount to
1,000 exabyte
Source: “The Expanding Digital ...
…or more content than
was produced during the
previous 5,000 years
(combined)
> 4B pictures uploaded to Flickr (as of October 2009)
> 2B new pictures uploaded to Facebook – each month
13 hours
-uploaded video to YouTube
-every minute
247 billion
- number of e-mails per day in 2009
(81 percent was spam…)
Up Next:
“The Internet of Things”
«In 2011, 2B people will be connected to the
internet – as well as 1,000B things» Bob Sutor, IBM
Page 29
EDB 2010
From
Desktop to
Mobile to
1.1
1.4
5.0
.. combined
Now there are twice as
many mobile phones
in our world as
TV sets and
PCs …
But we are just in the early stages of
the 5th IT wave, The Mobile Internet
Page 31
EDB 2010
Kilde: comScore Global 1/10
Page 32
Source: John Batelle, Wired
EDB 2010
Mobile internet will open
new opportunities
YouTube–AugmentedRealityoniPhone
“Everyware” adding to
a vast sea of information
..every second ..of every hour ..of every day
ST.OLAV HOSPITAL
One of the ...
NUI – Natural User
Interfaces – the
new standard
Page 37
EDB 2010
Page 38
EDB 2010
Page 39
EDB 2010
Page 42
EDB 2010
..and movement2 loudspeakers
HD Video
Front camera
5MP camera
UMTS / 3G
Bluetooth, WiFi
2 microphones
HD Screen
Multi Touc...
“Once social change
begins, it cannot be
reversed”
Towards 2020
Cesar Chavez
A Rapidly Aging
Population…
Source: Finance Dep, Norway
1967: 3.9 workers
per retired person
2003: 2.6 workers
per retired person
2050: 1.6 workers
pe...
Oslo University Hospital is one
of Northern Europe’s largest …
Norway will have to build 6 hospitals
like it to meet the n...
¾ of all
graduates must
begin to work
within the health
care sector
Source: SINTEF,
oct 2009
Challenges are
formidable!
To a far greater
extent than today,
public sector
needs to exploit
opportunities
from self serv...
Page 51
EDB 2010
Most sectors are facing extensive
efficiency improvements needs –
and will have to learn from the
banks’ ...
Page 52
EDB 2010
There will be an
increased
competition for
the best minds,
with an IT focus
on Collaboration,
HR & Brand ...
Digital Natives
Set the Agenda
Keeping up with the Joneses:
The Hunt for Comfort
The Lack of Cash,
Products & Options
*Picture source: Google Image Search
The Hunt for
Meaning
The Lack of Trust,
Time & Attention
More informed
More educated
More mobile
Still a ”youngster”
at 30...
«Bathed in Bits since Birth»
"Growing Up Digital", Don Tapscott
…and networking since birth
Consumo
Ergo Sum
"People want to be part of
something larger than
themselves. They want to
be part of something they
are r...
“What we sell is the ability for
a 43-year-old accountant to
dress in black leather, ride
through small towns and
have peo...
Source: SINTEF / Norstat
2008 and Nielsen, june 2009
They are
the most active
in finding public
information in new
context...
Source: SINTEF / Norstat
2008 and Nielsen, june 2009
Never
considered
”cold”, ICT is
their primary
social glue
Scenarios
2020
Towards 2020
Rebooting Democracy –
A New Model Emerging
Industry
Society
Information
Society
Democracy Represented Participatory
Citize...
(1) Ensuring
openness &
transparency
(2) Lowering the cost
of government
(3) Cyber-Security
(4) Participatory
democracy
(5...
more global
more local
morecollective
moreindividual
From ”EDB Digital Public Sector Scenario Planning 2015
My Multimedia ...
Technology alone will not create change
Vision Competencies Incentives Resources Plan & Process CHANGE!
Competencies Incen...
«If your only tool is a hammer, every
problem looks like a nail»
Bernard Baruch
Page 68
THA
NKS
What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting Democracy
What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting Democracy
What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting Democracy
What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting Democracy
What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting Democracy
What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting Democracy
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What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting Democracy

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Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society & Rebooting Democracy;
- IT Industrialisation
- Information Explosion
- "Everyware" - The Mobile Internet
- Natural UI
- Aging Population
- Digital Natives
- New emerging democracy model
- Scenarios 2020

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What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting Democracy

  1. 1. Source:MattNovak’sPaleo-Futureblog From Gov2.0 in 2010 … to Gov3.0 in 2020 What’s Next? EDB © 2010, Antonio Lo Cascio
  2. 2. Page 2 EDB 2010 The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be PaulValery
  3. 3. Source: Matt Novak’s Paleo-Future blog
  4. 4. Source: Matt Novak’s Paleo-Future blog
  5. 5. Page 5 EDB 2010
  6. 6. Page 6 EDB 2010
  7. 7. Page 7 EDB 2010 From change as the exception to … … change as the norm
  8. 8. Underlying megatrends that are shaping tomorrow Towards 2020
  9. 9. Once again, industrialisation is changing our society…
  10. 10. .. but now with an abundant access to raw materials: CPU capacity continues to double every 18 months (”Moore’s Law”) 130x from 2010 to 2020
  11. 11. Storage capacity continues to double every 12 months (”Kryder’s Law”)
  12. 12. 2,000x (in 10 years) … and then, with startling speed; Network bandwidth triples every 18 months (”Gilder’s Law”)
  13. 13. ICT ∑Possibilities ∞→ ICT ∑Price → 0 Two remarkable rules seem to apply for the primary means of production in the information society:
  14. 14. Page 14 EDB 2010 $600M x36 STILL…
  15. 15. «Cheap, utility- supplied computing will ultimately change society as profoundly as cheap electricity did» Nicholas Carr
  16. 16. The widespread democratisation of means of production and distribution is impacting and transforming our society more than the industrial revolution
  17. 17. Et voilà; Une explosion de l'information!
  18. 18. It is estimated that one week of newspaper content …
  19. 19. .. equals more information than one person received during a lifetime in the 18th century
  20. 20. It is calculated that the global content production this year will amount to 1,000 exabyte Source: “The Expanding Digital Universe,” IDC; sponsored by EMC
  21. 21. …or more content than was produced during the previous 5,000 years (combined)
  22. 22. > 4B pictures uploaded to Flickr (as of October 2009) > 2B new pictures uploaded to Facebook – each month
  23. 23. 13 hours -uploaded video to YouTube -every minute
  24. 24. 247 billion - number of e-mails per day in 2009 (81 percent was spam…)
  25. 25. Up Next: “The Internet of Things”
  26. 26. «In 2011, 2B people will be connected to the internet – as well as 1,000B things» Bob Sutor, IBM
  27. 27. Page 29 EDB 2010 From Desktop to Mobile to
  28. 28. 1.1 1.4 5.0 .. combined Now there are twice as many mobile phones in our world as TV sets and PCs …
  29. 29. But we are just in the early stages of the 5th IT wave, The Mobile Internet Page 31 EDB 2010 Kilde: comScore Global 1/10
  30. 30. Page 32 Source: John Batelle, Wired EDB 2010 Mobile internet will open new opportunities
  31. 31. YouTube–AugmentedRealityoniPhone
  32. 32. “Everyware” adding to a vast sea of information ..every second ..of every hour ..of every day ST.OLAV HOSPITAL One of the most modern hospitals in Europe
  33. 33. NUI – Natural User Interfaces – the new standard
  34. 34. Page 37 EDB 2010
  35. 35. Page 38 EDB 2010
  36. 36. Page 39 EDB 2010
  37. 37. Page 42 EDB 2010
  38. 38. ..and movement2 loudspeakers HD Video Front camera 5MP camera UMTS / 3G Bluetooth, WiFi 2 microphones HD Screen Multi Touch A-GPS Compass Sensors for light ..and proximity ..and moisture Packed with sensors, the iPhone … … defines the best practice NUI-platform
  39. 39. “Once social change begins, it cannot be reversed” Towards 2020 Cesar Chavez
  40. 40. A Rapidly Aging Population…
  41. 41. Source: Finance Dep, Norway 1967: 3.9 workers per retired person 2003: 2.6 workers per retired person 2050: 1.6 workers per retired person
  42. 42. Oslo University Hospital is one of Northern Europe’s largest … Norway will have to build 6 hospitals like it to meet the needs from 2020 Source:SINTEF,oct2009
  43. 43. ¾ of all graduates must begin to work within the health care sector Source: SINTEF, oct 2009
  44. 44. Challenges are formidable! To a far greater extent than today, public sector needs to exploit opportunities from self service, automation and collaboration #opengov #gov20 #health20 MORE FROM IT.
  45. 45. Page 51 EDB 2010 Most sectors are facing extensive efficiency improvements needs – and will have to learn from the banks’ journey of the last decade, from manual processes to self- service and automation by default
  46. 46. Page 52 EDB 2010 There will be an increased competition for the best minds, with an IT focus on Collaboration, HR & Brand Mgmt
  47. 47. Digital Natives Set the Agenda
  48. 48. Keeping up with the Joneses: The Hunt for Comfort The Lack of Cash, Products & Options *Picture source: Google Image Search
  49. 49. The Hunt for Meaning The Lack of Trust, Time & Attention More informed More educated More mobile Still a ”youngster” at 30 years, she demands to be involved
  50. 50. «Bathed in Bits since Birth» "Growing Up Digital", Don Tapscott
  51. 51. …and networking since birth
  52. 52. Consumo Ergo Sum "People want to be part of something larger than themselves. They want to be part of something they are really proud of, that they’ll fight for, sacrifice for, trust." Howard Schultz, Starbucks
  53. 53. “What we sell is the ability for a 43-year-old accountant to dress in black leather, ride through small towns and have people be afraid of him” Harley-Davidson Rather than the product, they buy the story
  54. 54. Source: SINTEF / Norstat 2008 and Nielsen, june 2009 They are the most active in finding public information in new contexts and the least satisfied with access as it is today
  55. 55. Source: SINTEF / Norstat 2008 and Nielsen, june 2009 Never considered ”cold”, ICT is their primary social glue
  56. 56. Scenarios 2020 Towards 2020
  57. 57. Rebooting Democracy – A New Model Emerging Industry Society Information Society Democracy Represented Participatory Citizens Passive Receivers Active Partners Politics One-to-many, Polarised One-to-One Needs Oriented National State National, Mono-cultural ”Glocal”, Multi-cultural
  58. 58. (1) Ensuring openness & transparency (2) Lowering the cost of government (3) Cyber-Security (4) Participatory democracy (5) Innovation The agenda of Obama’s CIO, Vivek Kundra, points the way forward:
  59. 59. more global more local morecollective moreindividual From ”EDB Digital Public Sector Scenario Planning 2015 My Multimedia Experience Our Online Global Village My Personal Off-Line Zone Our Local Community
  60. 60. Technology alone will not create change Vision Competencies Incentives Resources Plan & Process CHANGE! Competencies Incentives Resources Plan & Process Vision Incentives Resources Plan & Process Vision Competencies Resources Plan & Process Vision Competencies Incentives Plan & Process Source: APQC CONFUSION.. CONCERN.. REFUSAL… FRUSTRATION.. Vision Competencies Incentives Resources DELAYS..
  61. 61. «If your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail» Bernard Baruch
  62. 62. Page 68 THA NKS
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