0
Todd Hale
 James Russo
Carman Allison
Chg Aug 09        Jan     Feb      Mar         Apr   May     Jun      Jul      Aug    Sep   Oct
                 to Sept 0...
77%
      % of
     global
                                                                            71%
    HHs that
  ...
95%              94%
    % of U.S.
     HHs that                                                                          ...
91%
       % of
    Canadian                                                                    85%
     HHs that
      be...
While sentiment has been continually lower in the United States than Canada,
                both appeared to have hit a b...
Nov   Dec   Jan    Feb         Mar         Apr        May         Jun         Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct
                      ...
U.S. – Sept. & Oct. Losses, Less than Expected
 100,000
            41,000
                                               ...
U.S. - % Change in Retail Channel Shopping Trips
           10


              5
                                         ...
U.S. - % Change in Retail Channel Shopping Trips

            20

            10
                                         ...
U.S. - % Change in Unit Prices

            7.00%
            6.00%
            5.00%
            4.00%
            3.00%
...
11
                                                                           /0




                                     ...
U.S. - % Change in Basket Ring Per Trip vs. YAGO

         15

         10                                                ...
U.S. - % Change in Grocery Channel % Items on Deal
                                                                       ...
Nov   Dec   Jan    Feb        Mar         Apr        May         Jun         Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct
                       ...
Canada’s Economic Indicators – the 6 month trend

                                    0.10%
        Inflation
            ...
Canada - % Change in Total Tracked Sales

      14
      12
      10
         8
         6                                ...
08
                                                                                                    /0




            ...
Canada - % Change in Shopping Trips vs. YAGO

              6

              4

              2
                          ...
Canada - % Change in $ Basket Ring Per Trip vs. YAGO

        10

           8

           6                              ...
Canada - Store Brand Share of Sales

        24

        23

        22

        21
                                      ...
Canada - % Sold on Feature (Temporary Reduced Price)

          50


          45


          40
                         ...
United States:
  – James Russo, james.russo@nielsen.com
  – Todd Hale, todd.hale@nielsen.com

Canada:
  – Carman Allison, ...
North American Economic Current: December 2009
North American Economic Current: December 2009
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North American Economic Current: December 2009

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North American Consumer Sentiment Improves, but Spending Still Weak
Nielsen Wire - December 17, 2009

A North American snapshot of Nielsen’s Global Economic Current finds the U.S. and Canada with improving consumer confidence, but still hampered by timid spending.

Read the full article at http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/north-american-consumer-sentiment-improves-but-spending-still-weak/

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Transcript of "North American Economic Current: December 2009"

  1. 1. Todd Hale James Russo Carman Allison
  2. 2. Chg Aug 09 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct to Sept 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Canada United States Bottom Leveling United States Update: Canada Update: • Consumer sentiment improving, spending • Canadians are feeling more optimistic than still weak our neighbours – however it has leveled off • Value retailing continues strong • Dollars continue to outpace units due to performance, but grocery growing trips as rising prices food matters most • Private Label increased share for the • 3rd Consecutive period of falling prices month fueled by Grocery & HABC • Store brand growth slowing, but branded • Promotional sales continue to increase still on decline • Consumers continue to seek value by • Consumers increasingly looking for deals shopping at Discount Retailers Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Neutral: between -1 & +1% Very Negative: <= -4% Growth: between +1 & + 4% Negative: between -1 & -4%
  3. 3. 77% % of global 71% HHs that believe 63% 66% they are in a recession % of global 26% 26% HHs that believe 23% they will be out of a recession in the next 19% 12 mos Oct 2008 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct 2009 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
  4. 4. 95% 94% % of U.S. HHs that 91% believe they are in a 86% recession % of U.S. HHs that believe 26% 24% they will be out of a recession in the next 12 mos 19% 18% Oct 2008 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct 2009 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
  5. 5. 91% % of Canadian 85% HHs that believe 82% they are in a recession 37% % of Canadian 33% HHs that 32% believe they will be out of a 22% recession 19% in the next 12 mos Oct 2008 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct 2009 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
  6. 6. While sentiment has been continually lower in the United States than Canada, both appeared to have hit a bottom in the 1H09 120 114 113 111 112 110 110 105 104 108 106 106 100 103 96 100 94 96 90 84 80 83 84 82 80 70 1H05 2H05 1H06 2H06 1H07 2H07 1H08 2H08 1H09 2H09 US Canada Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey
  7. 7. Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Consumers Taking Advantage Growth: between +1 & plus 4% of Lower Prices & Increased Promotions Neutral: between -1 & +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% & -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 & is Very Negative: <= -4% benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
  8. 8. U.S. – Sept. & Oct. Losses, Less than Expected 100,000 41,000 - 139K - 111K 0 -11K -100,000 -72K -122K -128K -144K -137K -160K -161K -154K -200,000 -175K -190K -219K -300,000 -304K -321K -345K -400,000 10% -380K -500,000 Unemployment -443K & Increasing -504K -600,000 Average Hourly -597K Work Week -652K -700,000 -681K -681K -741K -800,000 Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Source: Seasonally Adjusted U.S. Total Non Farm Employment, U.S. Government Page 10
  9. 9. U.S. - % Change in Retail Channel Shopping Trips 10 5 Club Supercenter Dollar 0 Grocery Drug -5 Mass Merch Conv/Gas -10 -15 08 /08 09 /08 10 /08 11 /08 11 /08 12 /08 01 /08 02 /09 03 /09 04 /09 05 /09 06 /09 07 /09 08 /09 09 /09 10 /09 10 /09 09 1/ 2 9 6 4 1 9 7 4 1 1 8 6 3 1 8 5 3 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /3 07 4-week period ending Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only or Rx only trips
  10. 10. U.S. - % Change in Retail Channel Shopping Trips 20 10 Apparel 0 Office Supply HHI -10 Liquor Stores Department -20 Electronics Toy -30 -40 08 /08 09 /08 10 /08 11 /08 11 /08 12 /08 01 /08 02 /09 03 /09 04 /09 05 /09 06 /09 07 /09 08 /09 09 /09 10 /09 10 /09 09 1/ 2 9 6 4 1 9 7 4 1 1 8 6 3 1 8 5 3 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /3 07 4-week period ending Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only or Rx only trips; versus year ago
  11. 11. U.S. - % Change in Unit Prices 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% 01 /08 02 09 03 09 04 09 05 09 06 /09 07 09 08 09 09 09 10 09 8 8 8 8 8 10 09 09 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 4/ 1/ 1/ 8/ 3/ 1/ 8/ 5/ 3/ 1/ 9 6 4 1 9 7 6 /0 /0 /0 /0 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /3 08 09 10 11 11 12 4-week period ending Source: Scantrack®, a service of The Nielsen Company; (FDM w/ Walmart)
  12. 12. 11 /0 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 12 4 /0 /0 6 12 2/0 /3 6 01 0 /0 /2 6 02 7/0 /2 7 03 4/0 /2 7 04 4/0 /2 7 05 1 /0 /1 7 06 9/0 /1 7 07 6/0 /1 7 08 4 /0 /1 7 09 1/0 /0 7 10 8/0 /0 7 11 6/0 /0 7 12 3/0 /0 7 12 1/0 /2 7 01 9/0 /2 7 02 6/0 /2 8 03 3/0 /2 8 Source: Scantrack®, a service of The Nielsen Company; (FDM w/ Walmart) 04 2/0 /1 8 05 9/0 /1 8 06 7/0 /1 8 07 4 /0 /1 8 08 2/0 /0 8 09 9/0 /0 8 10 6/08 /0 11 4/0 /0 8 11 1 /0 /2 8 12 9/0 U.S. - Store Brand Unit Share /2 8 Brands 01 7/0 /2 8 02 4/0 /2 9 03 1/0 /2 9 04 1/0 /1 9 05 8/09 /1 06 6/0 /1 9 07 3/0 /1 9 08 1/09 /0 09 8/0 /0 9 10 5/0 /0 9 10 3 /0 /3 9 1/ 09 Real Shifting Still Posting Gains From Share Gains
  13. 13. U.S. - % Change in Basket Ring Per Trip vs. YAGO 15 10 Grocery Dollar 5 Mass Merch Conv/Gas 0 Drug Supercenter -5 Club -10 -15 08 /08 09 /08 10 /08 11 /08 11 /08 12 /08 01 /08 02 /09 03 /09 04 /09 05 /09 06 /09 07 /09 08 /09 09 /09 10 /09 10 /09 09 1/ 2 9 6 4 1 9 7 4 1 1 8 6 3 1 8 5 3 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /3 07 4-week period ending Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only or Rx only trips
  14. 14. U.S. - % Change in Grocery Channel % Items on Deal % Items on Deal* 12 10 32% 8 32% 6 4 29% 2 $70K + 0 $30 to $69.9K -2 < $29K -4 -6 08 /08 09 /08 10 /08 11 /08 11 /08 12 /08 01 /08 02 /09 03 /09 04 /09 05 /09 06 /09 07 /09 08 /09 09 /09 10 /09 10 /09 09 1/ 2 9 6 4 1 9 7 4 1 1 8 6 3 1 8 5 3 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /3 07 4-week period ending * Latest Period Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only or Rx only trips
  15. 15. Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Canadian Thanksgiving reported a softness in Unit consumption Growth: between +1 & plus 4% while dollars continued to grow (+4%) due to rising prices. Neutral: between -1 & +1% Consumers continue to respond to value alternatives *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% & -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 & Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 101
  16. 16. Canada’s Economic Indicators – the 6 month trend 0.10% Inflation -0.30% -0.10% -0.90% -0.80% -0.90% May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.7% 8.4% 8.6% Unemployment Rate May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% Prime Interest Rate* May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Source: Statistics Canada.
  17. 17. Canada - % Change in Total Tracked Sales 14 12 10 8 6 Dollars % Chg 4 Units % Chg 2 0 -2 -4 -6 8 8 10 /08 11 08 12 08 01 08 02 /09 03 09 04 09 05 /09 06 09 07 09 08 09 08 /09 09 09 10 09 09 /0 /0 5/ 2/ 0/ 4/ 4/ 9/ 6/ 4/ 9/ 6/ 4/ 2 0 7 7 1 1 /0 /3 /2 /2 /2 /2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /2 /2 /2 08 08 09 4-week period ending Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, Canada All Channels (GB+DR+MM+WC+GM+TRU)
  18. 18. 08 /0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2 /0 08 8 /3 0 /0 09 8 /2 7 /0 10 8 /2 5 /0 11 8 /2 2 /0 12 8 /2 0 /0 01 8 /1 7 /0 02 9 /1 4 /0 03 9 /1 4 /0 04 9 Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, Canada All Channels (GB+DR+MM+WC+GM+TRU) /1 1 /0 05 9 /0 9 /0 06 9 /0 6 /0 4-week period ending 07 9 /0 4 /0 08 9 /0 Canada - % Change in Unit Prices 1 /0 08 9 /2 9 /0 09 9 /2 6 /0 10 9 /2 4 /0 9
  19. 19. Canada - % Change in Shopping Trips vs. YAGO 6 4 2 Total 0 Discount Conventional -2 -4 -6 -8 8 8 8 11 /08 12 08 01 08 02 09 03 09 04 /09 05 09 06 09 07 09 08 /09 08 09 09 09 10 09 09 /0 /0 /0 2/ 0/ 7/ 4/ 1/ 9/ 6/ 1/ 9/ 6/ 4/ 2 0 7 5 4 4 /0 /3 /2 /2 /2 /2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /2 /2 /2 08 08 09 10 Rolling 12 weekly periods ending Source: Nielsen Homescan, Rolling 12 week periods, reported 4 weekly
  20. 20. Canada - % Change in $ Basket Ring Per Trip vs. YAGO 10 8 6 Total Grocery 4 Drug Mass Merch 2 Warehouse 0 -2 -4 8 8 8 11 /08 12 08 01 08 02 09 03 09 04 /09 05 09 06 09 07 09 08 /09 08 09 09 09 10 09 09 /0 /0 /0 2/ 0/ 7/ 4/ 1/ 9/ 6/ 1/ 9/ 6/ 4/ 2 0 7 5 4 4 /0 /3 /2 /2 /2 /2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /2 /2 /2 08 08 09 10 Rolling 12 weekly periods ending Source: Nielsen Homescan, Rolling 12 week periods, reported 4 weekly
  21. 21. Canada - Store Brand Share of Sales 24 23 22 21 Dollar Share 20 Unit Share 19 18 17 16 15 8 8 10 /08 11 08 12 08 01 08 02 /09 03 09 04 09 05 /09 06 09 07 09 08 09 08 /09 09 09 10 09 09 /0 /0 5/ 2/ 0/ 4/ 4/ 9/ 6/ 4/ 9/ 6/ 4/ 2 0 7 7 1 1 /0 /3 /2 /2 /2 /2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /2 /2 /2 08 08 09 4 weekly periods ending Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, Canada All Channels (GB+DR+MM+WC+GM+TRU)
  22. 22. Canada - % Sold on Feature (Temporary Reduced Price) 50 45 40 % Dollars 35 % Units 30 25 20 8 8 8 8 8 01 /08 02 09 03 09 04 09 05 09 06 /09 07 09 08 09 08 09 09 09 10 09 09 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 7/ 4/ 4/ 1/ 6/ 4/ 1/ 9/ 6/ 4/ 2 0 7 5 2 0 9 /0 /3 /2 /2 /2 /2 /1 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /2 /2 /2 08 08 09 10 11 12 4 weekly periods ending Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, Canada Grocery + Drug + Mass Merch
  23. 23. United States: – James Russo, james.russo@nielsen.com – Todd Hale, todd.hale@nielsen.com Canada: – Carman Allison, carman.allison@nielsen.com Nielsen Global Buzz: – Chelsea Peters, Chelsea.Peters@nielsen.com – Shobhana Srinivasan, Shobhana.Srinivasan@nielsen.com
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