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Nielsen Economic Current: October 2009
 

Nielsen Economic Current: October 2009

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Signs of Economic Recovery Evident, but Global Consumers Still Not Ready to Loosen Purse Strings...

Signs of Economic Recovery Evident, but Global Consumers Still Not Ready to Loosen Purse Strings
Nielsen Wire - September 17, 2009

With an increasing amount of global buzz proclaiming the emergence of an economic recovery, the latest edition of the Nielsen Economic Current shows definite signs of renewed consumer confidence and sales growth in some countries. However, with 10 of the 12 countries tracked by Nielsen holding steady in measures of spending from the previous month, there is still no indication of widespread optimism.

Read the full article at http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/signs-of-economic-recovery-evident-but-global-consumers-still-not-ready-to-loosen-purse-strings/

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    Nielsen Economic Current: October 2009 Nielsen Economic Current: October 2009 Presentation Transcript

    • September 2009 Todd Hale James Russo Jonathan Banks Jean-Jacques Vandenheede
    • Nielsen Global Scorecard: Trips Slowing, Store Brand Sales Moderating KPI Summary Global Topline: Summary of All Countries Chg vs. Jun Jul Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Previous 09 09 ‘08 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 Month Nielsen Market Index Brazil Volume* Canada Nielsen Market Index Value** China Are consumers moving to France Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to Germany value channels? Hong Kong Are retailers selling more on promotion? India Are consumers shopping Italy more frequently? Spain Are consumers spending Taiwan more per trip? United Nielsen Global Kingdom Consumer Confidence^ United States Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Very Negative: <= -4% Growth: between +1 and + 4% Negative: between -1 and -4%
    • July Topline: Canada outpacing US, Western Europe Lagging Emerging economies US CA FR DE UK IT ES BR TW HK IN CN Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Neutral: between -1 and +1% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
    • Global Economic Top-Line Global Return to Growth Forecasted for 2010, With Asia leading and Western Europe lagging the recovery 7% 2008 2009 E 5% 2010 E 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% North America Western Europe LatAm Asia Eastern Europe • The UBS Global Economics team now expects 2009 world GDP to decline -0.9%, returning to growth in 2010 of 3.3% Source: UBS
    • Global Confidence & Recession/Recovery Buzz
    • Online Global Recession Discussions are Slowing Weekly Blog Buzz Trend* across U.S., UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, New Zealand (Data covers 01/01/2009 – 08/30/2009) 45000 40000 Global recession buzz has dropped ~31% since 3/14/09 35000 30000 Message Count 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Recession ‐ Global Recovery‐Global
    • Concerns in the short term over economic recovery United Kingdom Italy 3000 93% less 1400 73% less Recovery mentions 1200 Recovery mentions 2500 1000 2000 800 1500 600 1000 400 500 200 Message Count 0 0 United States Germany 600 40000 67% less 86% less Recovery mentions 500 Recovery mentions 35000 30000 400 25000 300 20000 15000 200 10000 100 5000 0 0 Recession Recovery * Blog data only, 12/28/08-08/30/09
    • Country Highlights & Insights
    • USA Summary Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Shopper Frequency and Transaction Size Continue to Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Slow Amidst Aggressive Price Reductions Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
    • Canada Summary Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 t 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Dollar growth continues to outpace physical units fueled Growth: between +1 and plus 4% by rising prices. Consumers respond by continuing to seek lower prices in value channels, and with promotions Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
    • France Summary Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Value Channels Are shoppers shifting to value channels? continue growth, lift in promotional sales Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
    • Germany Summary Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Unit sales and dollar Are shoppers shifting sales remain to value channels? moderate. Increase in promotional activity Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
    • UK Summary Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Volume sales improving Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Budget store brands’ growth slows, premium store Are retailers selling more on promotion? brands return to growth Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
    • Italy Summary Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Store Brands and Are shoppers shifting Value Channels to value channels? realizing growth, Are retailers selling however frequency more on promotion? down Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
    • Spain Summary Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 08 t 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84 Very Negative: <= -4%
    • Taiwan Summary Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Taiwan retail market is Are retailers selling more on promotion? beginning to stabilize Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 6/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 82
    • Hong Kong Summary Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Previous growth in HH categories due to Swine Flu has Are shoppers shifting to been slowing down, with Baby Products continuing to value channels? be the most lucrative category demonstrating fastest growth Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
    • Brazil Summary Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Lower Interest rate and unemployment rate falling. Expansion of Industrial activity. Recovery of food Are shoppers shifting to value channels? product categories and non- basic product categories Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
    • India Summary Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? ~ Are shoppers shifting to value channels? ~ Consistent volume and Are retailers selling more on promotion? value sales gains of +5%, rebound in optimism Are consumers shopping more frequently? ~ Are consumers spending more per trip? ~ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
    • China Summary Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 t 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling FMCG manufacturers are still more on promotion? reporting slower growth in their Are consumers shipment numbers but the shopping more frequently? direction is now positive Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
    • Contact List • United States: – James Russo, james.russo@nielsen.com – Todd Hale, todd.hale@nielsen.com • Global: – Lisa Lee, Lisa.Lee@nielsen.com • Western Europe: – Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, jean-jacques.vandenheede@nielsen.com – Jonathan Banks, jonathan.banks@nielsen.com • Canada: – Carman Allison, carman.allison@nielsen.com • Russia: – Natalia Ignatyeva, Natalia.ignatyeva@nielsen.com • India: – Jayashree Janardhanan, Jayashree.Janardhanan@nielsen.com • Brazil: – Margarita Zanella, Margarita.zanella@nielsen.com – Tatiana Villarinho, Tatiana.Villarinho@nielsen.com • China: – Phoebe Lam, phoebe.lam@nielsen.com • Taiwan: – Cheryl Wen, Cheryl.wen@nielsen.com • Hong Kong – Acky Chan, acky.chan@nielsen.com • Nielsen Global Buzz: – Chelsea Peters, Chelsea.Peters@nielsen.com – Shobhana Srinivasan, Shobhana.Srinivasan@nielsen.com