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Nielsen Economic Current: August 2009
 

Nielsen Economic Current: August 2009

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Rising Sales In Emerging Economies Reflect Growing Optimism About Recovery ...

Rising Sales In Emerging Economies Reflect Growing Optimism About Recovery
Nielsen Wire - August 18, 2009

The notion that the global economy may be on the verge of recovery has not yet translated into improved consumer spending or confidence, although consumers in the emerging countries – Brazil, India and China – seem to be more optimistic than others and are loosening their purse strings ever so slightly, according to the new edition of the Nielsen Economic Current. Of the 12 countries Nielsen now tracks, all but Taiwan (which declined) showed no significant change in measures of spending. Canadian, Western European and American spending was, at best, restrained.

Read the full article at http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/rising-sales-in-emerging-economies-reflect-growing-optimism-about-recovery/

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    Nielsen Economic Current: August 2009 Nielsen Economic Current: August 2009 Presentation Transcript

    • August 2009 Todd Hale James Russo Jonathan Banks Jean-Jacques Vandenheede
    • Nielsen Global Scorecard: Trips Slowing, Sales Moderate KPI Summary Global Topline: Summary of All Countries Chg vs. May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Previous 09 09 ‘08 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 Month Nielsen Market Index Brazil Volume* Canada Nielsen Market Index Value** China Are consumers moving to France Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to Germany value channels? Hong Kong Are retailers selling more on promotion? India Are consumers shopping Italy more frequently? Spain Are consumers spending Taiwan more per trip? United Nielsen Global Kingdom Consumer Confidence^ United States Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Very Negative: <= -4% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Negative: between -1% and -4%
    • June Top-Line: Optimism in emerging markets US CA FR DE UK IT ES BR TW HK IN CN Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Neutral: between -1 and +1% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
    • Global Confidence & Recession/Recovery Buzz
    • June 2009: Global Recession Plateaus 0% to 25% 25% to 50% 50% to 75% 75% to 100% April 2009 77% of global consumers believed their country was in a recession. For June 2009 number stands at 71% Source: NGCCI
    • June 2009: Optimism Emerging 0% to 15% 15% to 30% 30% to 45% 45% to 60% April 2009, 23% of global consumers believed they will be out of a recession in a year. June 2009 number increased to 26% Source: NGCCI
    • While Recession Buzz Trending Lower, Global Concerns still elevated Weekly Blog Buzz Trend* across U.S., UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, New Zealand (Data covers 01/01/2009 – 08/01/2009) 45000 40000 Global recession buzz has dropped ~27% since 3/14/09 35000 30000 Message Count 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Recession ‐ Global Recovery‐Global
    • Spike in Recessionary Buzz Driven by Western Europe. 3000 Italy 600 Germany 1400 United Kingdom 1200 2500 500 1000 400 2000 800 1500 300 600 1000 200 400 500 100 200 0 0 0 Message Count 40000 United States 1200 Australia/NZ 160 Spain 35000 140 1000 30000 120 800 25000 100 20000 600 80 15000 60 400 10000 40 200 5000 20 0 0 0 Recession Recovery * Blog data only, 12/28/08-08/01/09
    • Country Highlights & Insights
    • USA Summary Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Neutral: between -1 and +1% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Shopper Frequency Continues to Slow & Spending Per Trip Turns Negative as More Retailers Reduce Prices to be More Competitive and Coupon Usage Accelerates
    • Canada Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Store Brands Struggling to Gain Share as National Brands Very Negative: <= -4% continue to fuel increased promotional activity
    • France Summary Value Channels continue growth, lift in promotional sales Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
    • Germany Summary Shift to higher growth in unit sales, dollar sales remain moderate Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
    • UK Summary Volume sales improving Budget store brands’ growth slows, premium store brands return to growth Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Peaked in April 2006 at **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% 101, then declined to 65 ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Neutral: between -1 and +1% (April ‘09). Bounced to Negative: between -1% and -4% 72 in June. Very Negative: <= -4%
    • Italy Summary Store Brands and Value Channels realizing growth, however frequency down Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
    • Spain Summary Gain in optimism not reflected in spending as of yet Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
    • Taiwan Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Optimism low, declines in Are shoppers shifting to value channels? sales evident in most recent period Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 6/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 82
    • Hong Kong Summary Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to Continued rise in household and hygienic value channels? categories (e.g. Antiseptic liquid and Are retailers selling bleach), in view of the outbreak of H1N1. more on promotion? increasing in-home dinning / occasions, Are consumers shopping home-consumed FMCG categories (e.g. more frequently? beverages, packaged food, dishwashing detergent) benefiting. Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
    • Brazil Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to 8 pt jump in optimism and Store Brands? consumers shopping more Are shoppers shifting to frequently driving sales value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
    • India Summary Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? ~ Are shoppers shifting to value channels? ~ Consistent volume and Are retailers selling more on promotion? value sales gains of +5%, rebound in optimism Are consumers shopping more frequently? ~ Are consumers spending more per trip? ~ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO Growth: between +1 and plus 4% ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81 Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
    • China Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling FMCG manufacturers are still more on promotion? reporting slower growth in their Are consumers shopping shipment numbers but the more frequently? direction is now positive Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
    • Contact List • United States: – James Russo, james.russo@nielsen.com – Todd Hale, todd.hale@nielsen.com • Global: – Lisa Lee, Lisa.Lee@nielsen.com • Western Europe: – Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, jean-jacques.vandenheede@nielsen.com – Jonathan Banks, jonathan.banks@nielsen.com • Canada: – Carman Allison, carman.allison@nielsen.com • Russia: – Natalia Ignatyeva, Natalia.ignatyeva@nielsen.com • India: – Jayashree Janardhanan, Jayashree.Janardhanan@nielsen.com • Brazil: – Margarita Zanella, Margarita.zanella@nielsen.com • China: – Phoebe Lam, phoebe.lam@nielsen.com • Taiwan: – Cheryl Wen, Cheryl.wen@nielsen.com • Hong Kong – Acky Chan, acky.chan@nielsen.com • Nielsen Global Buzz: – Chelsea Peters, Chelsea.Peters@nielsen.com – Shobhana Srinivasan, Shobhana.Srinivasan@nielsen.com