In a survey fielded among nearly 27,000 Nielsen Homescan consumer panel homes in March of 2008, we find about 19% of households claiming to have a gourmet cook in their home. At a time when consumers are dealing with high gas prices and inflation across store shelves, households with a gourmet cook have distinct shopping and buying behaviors making them an attractive target for food and non-food retailers who are looking to maximize their sales in a soft economy.
30 years of experience in the area of consumer panel analysis
24 years at Nielsen in various marketing & sales management positions
Involved in the development of innovative consumer panel applications for both manufacturers & retailers
Prepares topical presentations using consumer shopping/buying behavior & attitudes to provide insight to facilitate brand, category, & retail sales growth
Numerous speaking engagements each year @ client & industry events
MBA & BA in Business from Wright State University
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Economic Outlook
U.S. Retail Trends
Gourmet Meal Habits
Gourmet Cooks: Shopping & Buying Behaviors
Gas Price Impact
Summary & Closing Thoughts
Page Agenda
U.S. Economic Outlook: How Rocky Is The Road? Page Page
The Answer Is…..….Pretty Rocky
- Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 24-25, 2008
Page “… economic activity has remained soft in recent months. Manufacturing activity had deteriorated , business investment in equipment appeared to have moved down , and residential construction had continued its steep descent . Labor market conditions had weakened further, and consumer sentiment was at historical lows , but despite these developments, consumer spending appeared resilient . Core consumer price inflation had been stable over recent months, but headline inflation had remained elevated ...”
Forces at Work: Consumer Wallet Pressures Page
Personal debt servicing
Home energy
Transportation
Food
Healthcare
Education
Home & stock portfolios losing value
Tighter credit
Flat income in existing jobs
Unemployment rate increasing
Weak dollar
Average U.S. Consumers Getting Squeezed Lower Spending Power Falling Wealth, Income & Credit Rising Costs Rising Living, Household Expenses
Overall Cost of Living Rising Sharply Consumers Can Not Keep Up With Necessities Page Source: U.S. Department of Labor Statistics (Consumer Price Index; U.S. City Average); USDA, NAR, BLS Fuel Oil Gallon Gasoline Gallon Bread pound Ground Beef pound Chicken pound Eggs dozen Milk half gallon 3% Wages Housing - 8% 12 Month Percentage Increase, Selected Items (March 2007 vs. March 2008) 48% 35% 27% 16% 10% 13% 7%
Energy Needs Becoming the #1 Household Spending Item Page Annual household spend fueling up; assumes 12,000 per year, average 20 miles per gallon Dept of Energy—2 car households—approx 60% Consumer Expenditure Survey
Household Spending:
Food $6,111
At Home $3,417
Away From Home $2,694
Gas – only $4,921
Health Care $2,766
Entertainment $2,376
Apparel & Services $1,874
Global Demand Pushes Gas to $4/Gallon; Can $5/Gallon Be Far Off? Page Dept of Energy
Declining Consumer Confidence (Index 100 = 1985 Confidence Level) Page March 2008 January 2008 January 2007 January 2006 February 2008 107 92 110 94 87 69 76 58 65 48 Source: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Expectations Index Worst since 1992 Apr 2008 May 2008 45 57 62 50
Forces at Work: CPG Margin Pressures Page
Commodities at all time highs
Barley (+47%) Corn (+59%) Wheat (+63%)
Fuel Prices at record levels
transportation of goods plus pressure on the consumers wallet
Pricing Decisions
Value Retail Expansion—competitors must hold/lower prices in their path
Growth of private label
Discount food retailers
Margin Pressures on both CPG Manufacturers & Retailers! Retail Prices Weaker U.S. Dollar Wal-Mart growth Discount player emergence Rising Commodity Prices Ingredient Cost Transportation Cost Packaging Cost
So, Tough Times for Growth & How Important Are Value, Variety & Convenience to You?
How are you equipped to compete against Value, Variety or Convenience?
Are you providing Value, Variety & Convenient solutions to category consumers & retail shoppers?
An integral part of these themes is innovation
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Page U.S. Retailing Trends
Value & Convenience Winning As Evidenced By Increased Store Count Page U.S. Store counts Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company
Some Big Players Going w/Smaller Grocery Format Page
Half the Size of a Neighborhood Market
Recent Trademarked Names for Possible Private Label
“ City Thyme” & “Field & Vine”
Wal-Mart & Target Leading Store Expansion versus Major Grocers Page *Includes Division 1, Supercenters, Neighborhood Markets & Sam’s Club U.S. Store counts Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company
Niche Grocery Store Count Growth From Natural/Gourmet & Deep Discounters Page U.S. Store counts Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company
Rapid Store Growth From Leading Drug Chains; Warehouse Stores Growing too Page U.S. Store counts Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company
Some Major Gourmet Food Retailers Page 22 locations in the Twin Cities area Source: Company Websites 15 California locations 16 stores conveniently located throughout Manhattan 10 locations in Connecticut, Manhattan, Scarsdale, Maryland, D.C., & Virginia 14 retail stores and cafes in New York, Washington, D.C., Napa Valley, Charlotte, and Kansas City 5 St. Louis retail stores 18 locations in Los Angeles Area
Nugget Markets Page “ a family-owned business …since 1926, …started in Woodland, California … now with seven Nugget Market locations in the greater Sacramento area and two more on the way” Source: Company Website
Nugget Markets – Homepage on Website Page “ Low Prices: With all of our focus on quality, it’s sometimes hard for our guests to believe that we also offer the lowest prices. But it’s true — we offer the area’s best prices from a full-service grocery store. Don’t believe us? … That’s why we invented the Price Challenge , so our guests can see for themselves that shopping at Nugget will save them money” Source: Company Website
Shopping Behavior Trends
Retailers can grow their sales by:
Increasing their shopper base
Driving shopping frequency
Building baskets
Leveraging categories & brands that impact one or more of these components
Driving “need state” trip opportunities
Health & wellness
Meal occasions
Large versus small trips
Time-starved consumers
Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company
Value Winning As Evidenced By Consumer Acceptance Page *Includes Kmart, Target & Wal-Mart Supercenters Benefits from new store openings % household penetration Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company
Value Channels Grabbing Trips Page Grocery & Mass trips continue to drop *Includes Kmart, Target & Wal-Mart Supercenters Trips per household Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company
Value Retailing Driving Price Compression Page *Includes Kmart, Target & Wal-Mart Supercenters Average $ basket ring —t otal expenditures Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company
Page Gourmet Meal Habits of U.S. Households
1/3 rd of U.S. Households Occasionally or Frequently Consume a Gourmet Meal Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – PanelViews Survey – March 2008
Most Gourmet Meals Eaten @ Restaurant, but Sizeable At-Home Market Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – PanelViews Survey – March 2008
Gourmet Meals Prepared in One of Five Households @ Least Monthly Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – PanelViews Survey – March 2008
Gourmet Meals for Family, Relatives & Friends Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – PanelViews Survey – March 2008
Households Using Multiple Sources for Meal Preparation & Meal Ideas Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – PanelViews Survey – March 2008
Food Network Viewing Audience has Grown Threefold Page Source: Nielsen National People Meter Panel, a service of The Nielsen Company – Average TV viewership in the U.S.
Top Chef Audience Growing too! Page Source: Nielsen National People Meter Panel, a service of The Nielsen Company – Average TV viewership in the U.S.
Smaller Market for Specialty Stores, Products & Magazines Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – PanelViews Survey – March 2008
Educational Opportunities – Are Current Methods Keeping More From Attending? Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – PanelViews Survey – March 2008
Page Other web site videos from: Lunds & Byerly’s, Harris Teeter, & Wegmans …
Nearly 22 Million Households Claim to Have A Gourmet Cook
While gourmet cooks can be found in many household types, they have unique & attractive demographics:
disproportionate percentage have incomes of $100,000 +
tendency to live in large cosmopolitan centers or in affluent suburban areas
household head occupation: professional or managerial
Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – PanelViews Survey – March 2008
Page Gourmet Cooks: Shopping & Buying Behaviors
Gourmet Cook Households are Frequent Shoppers Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – 52 w/e 5/31/2008
Gourmet Cooks are Big Spenders: Outspend Other Households in Most Traditional Retail Channels Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – 52 w/e 5/31/2008 – all products
Gourmet Cooks Outspend Other Households in Many Other Retail Channels Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – 52 w/e 5/31/2008 – all products
Gourmet Cooks Outspend Other Households in Most Major Departments Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – 52 w/e 5/31/2008 – UPC-coded products
Gourmet Cooks Significantly Outspend Other Households in # of Product Categories Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – 52 w/e 5/31/2008 – UPC-coded products
Other Categories With at Least a 20% Differential in Favor of Gourmet Cooks Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – 52 w/e 5/31/2008 – UPC-coded products
But Wait, There are More Categories Where Gourmet Cook Households Outspend Page Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company – 52 w/e 5/31/2008 – UPC-coded products
Page Pain at the Pump! Gas Price Monitor
Page Source: Homescan® Total ShopperView, a service of The Nielsen Company―Total US―52 weeks ending 06/28/2008; Average Weekly Gas Prices http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html Household-based Measures of Gas Buying As Prices Increase, Consumers Have Less to Spend & Must Make Trade-Offs Last week of November & December meal & holiday shopping
Changing Behaviors as Economy Weakens Page 2Q08 vs 2Q07 Percent Change Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company * Excludes gas only trips Trip Generators Trip Optimizers Trip Avoiders
Low Income Taking More Drastic Trip Cuts Page 2Q08 vs 2Q07 Percent Change Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company Shopping Trips By Hhld Income * Excludes gas only trips At Risk Affluent driving “value” trips Trip Generators Trip Optimizers Trip Avoiders
Retailers Performing Well In Tough Economy
Costco July sales rose 14%, same-store up 10%
BJ’s July same-store sales up 16.7%, excluding gasoline, same-store up 7%
Dollar Tree posted 12.5% increase in sales during fiscal 2nd qtr, comp-store up 6.5%
Kroger 1 st qtr sales up 11.5%, identical supermarket sales up 9.2% with fuel & 5.8% without
Family Dollar July sales rose 7.2%, same-store up 4.6%
Walgreen Co. July sales up 10.7%, same-store up 4.1%
Wal-Mart 2 nd qtr sales up 10.1%, same-store up 4.5%
Page Source: Industry e-newsletters & company web sites = Stock-up & Save Consumer Motivation
Retailers Performing Well In Tough Economy
Costco July sales rose 14%, same-store up 10%
BJ’s July same-store sales up 16.7%, excluding gasoline, same-store up 7%
Dollar Tree posted 12.5% increase in sales during fiscal 2nd qtr, comp-store up 6.5%
Kroger 1 st qtr sales up 11.5%, identical supermarket sales up 9.2% with fuel & 5.8% without
Family Dollar July sales rose 7.2%, same-store up 4.6%
Walgreen Co. July sales up 10.7%, same-store up 4.1%
Wal-Mart 2 nd qtr sales up 10.1%, same-store up 4.5%
Page Source: Industry e-newsletters & company web sites = Value Seeking Consumer Motivation
Retailers Performing Well In Tough Economy
Costco July sales rose 14%, same-store up 10%
BJ’s July same-store sales up 16.7%, excluding gasoline, same-store up 7%
Dollar Tree posted 12.5% increase in sales during fiscal 2nd qtr, comp-store up 6.5%
Kroger 1 st qtr sales up 11.5%, identical supermarket sales up 9.2% with fuel & 5.8% without
Family Dollar July sales rose 7.2%, same-store up 4.6%
Walgreen Co. July sales up 10.7%, same-store up 4.1%
Wal-Mart 2 nd qtr sales up 10.1%, same-store up 4.5%
Page Source: Industry e-newsletters & company web sites = Value & Convenience Consumer Motivation
Retailers Performing Well In Tough Economy
Costco July sales rose 14%, same-store up 10%
BJ’s July same-store sales up 16.7%, excluding gasoline, same-store up 7%
Dollar Tree posted 12.5% increase in sales during fiscal 2nd qtr, comp-store up 6.5%
Kroger 1 st qtr sales up 11.5%, identical supermarket sales up 9.2% with fuel & 5.8% without
Family Dollar July sales rose 7.2%, same-store up 4.6%
Walgreen Co. July sales up 10.7%, same-store up 4.1%
Wal-Mart 2 nd qtr sales up 10.1%, same-store up 4.5%
Page Source: Industry e-newsletters & company web sites = Value & 1-Stop Shop Consumer Motivation
Other Retailers Struggling
Gelson’s Markets …”rising costs for food & fuel “may have caused some customers to make some or all of their purchases from our competitors,” 2 nd qtr same-store sales declined 2.7%”
Target Corp. July sales up 4.7%, same-store off 1.2%
Safeway’s 2 nd qtr identical-store, excluding fuel, off 0.3%
“ Whole Foods Market weak 3 rd qtr sales … worst comp-store sales gains in 28-year history — up 2.6% — predicted comp-sales for the 4 th qtr would rise 1.5%”
Page * Source: Supermarket News Source: Industry e-newsletters & company web sites High or higher end retailers not immune
Circuit City 1 st qtr sales off 7.4%, comp- store down 11.3%
Williams-Sonoma 1 st qtr total comp-sales off 9%
Home Depot sales for their 1 st qtr were off 3.4%, comp- store off 6.5%
Barnes & Noble 1 st qtr sales up 1.1%, comp-store off 1.5%
Macy’s 1 st qtr sales off 2.9%, same-store off 2.6%
Softness in Alternative & Specialty Channels Page Source: Industry e-newsletters & company web sites Anyone care to forecast the holiday season for these retailers?
Consumers Combining Trips, Eating Out Less, Staying Home, Cutting Spending @ Alarming Levels! Page 78% combining shopping trips & errands (+ 10 pts from YAGO), 52% eating out less (+ 14 pts), 51% staying home more often (+ 12 pts) & 63% of U.S. consumers are reducing spending (+ 18 pts)! Nielsen Homescan Gas Impact Study
Consumers Combining Trips, Eating Out Less, Staying Home, Cutting Spending @ Alarming Levels! Page 78% combining shopping trips & errands (+ 10 pts from YAGO), 52% eating out less (+ 14 pts), 51% staying home more often (+ 12 pts) & 63% of U.S. consumers are reducing spending (+ 18 pts)! Nielsen Homescan Gas Impact Study Similar Responses Among Gourmet Cook Households
Consumers Combining Trips, Eating Out Less, Staying Home, Cutting Spending @ Alarming Levels! Page 78% combining shopping trips & errands (+ 10 pts from YAGO), 52% eating out less (+ 14 pts), 51% staying home more often (+ 12 pts) & 63% of U.S. consumers are reducing spending (+ 18 pts)! Nielsen Homescan Gas Impact Study Saving Money in What & How they Buy & Where They Shop Impact higher gas prices had on driving & spending habits? Check all Jun/Jul ‘05 Jun/Jul ‘06 Jun ‘ 07 Jun ‘ 08 Buy less expensive grocery brands 17% 22% 19% 35% Use more coupons 20% 24% 21% 32% Shop more @ Supercenters 22% 26% 23% 28% Buy Larger, Economy Size 10% 11% 10% 16%
Consumers Combining Trips, Eating Out Less, Staying Home, Cutting Spending @ Alarming Levels! Page 78% combining shopping trips & errands (+ 10 pts from YAGO), 52% eating out less (+ 14 pts), 51% staying home more often (+ 12 pts) & 63% of U.S. consumers are reducing spending (+ 18 pts)! Nielsen Homescan Gas Impact Study Saving Money in What & How they Buy & Where They Shop Gourmet Cook households 27% more likely to buy larger, economy size; 13% more likely to use coupons Impact higher gas prices had on driving & spending habits? Check all Jun/Jul ‘05 Jun/Jul ‘06 Jun ‘ 07 Jun ‘ 08 Buy less expensive grocery brands 17% 22% 19% 35% Use more coupons 20% 24% 21% 32% Shop more @ Supercenters 22% 26% 23% 28% Buy Larger, Economy Size 10% 11% 10% 16%
“ HEB’s Central Market Goes Low with Free Organic Milk, Other Discounts … upscale fresh format for foodies is dropping coupons with $10 off a $50 order”
> Value Importance for Upscale Grocers Page Source: Progressive Grocer
More U.S. Households Turning to Club Stores & Internet; Carpooling & Public Transportation Helping Few Page Nielsen Homescan Surveys Impact higher gas prices had on driving & spending habits? Check all Jun/Jul ‘05 Jun/Jul ‘06 Jun ‘ 07 Jun ‘ 08 Use lower grade gas 16% 18% 14% 14% Shop more @ Warehouse Clubs 9% 10% 10% 13% Shop more on Internet 5% 9% 9% 11% Carpool more often 5% 7% Use Public Transportation more 3% 4% 3% 4%
More U.S. Households Turning to Club Stores & Internet; Carpooling & Public Transportation Helping Few Page Nielsen Homescan Surveys Gourmet Cook households 31% more likely to shop club stores ; 26% more likely to shop internet; 49% more likely to use public transportation Impact higher gas prices had on driving & spending habits? Check all Jun/Jul ‘05 Jun/Jul ‘06 Jun ‘ 07 Jun ‘ 08 Use lower grade gas 16% 18% 14% 14% Shop more @ Warehouse Clubs 9% 10% 10% 13% Shop more on Internet 5% 9% 9% 11% Carpool more often 5% 7% Use Public Transportation more 3% 4% 3% 4%
Page Summary & Closing Thoughts
2008 & 2009 Will Be Challenging
Record high gas prices, food & beverage inflation, along with declining consumer confidence will cause consumers to do more of what they have been doing:
Combine shopping trips
Eat more meals at home & do more at-home entertaining
Seek the right mix of value, variety, & convenience
BUT AT ACCELERATED LEVELS
SO WHAT ARE YOU DOING DIFFERENTLY?
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22 Million Households w/Gourmet Cook
Attractive demographics & shopping behaviors
Big spenders in # of traditional & non-traditional retail channels
Big spenders in many departments & categories
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How to Attract & Stay Current w/Gourmet Cooks
Having the right assortment is paramount
Local sourcing on-trend with freshness & enables better value
Information hungry, but fragmented communication channels
Magazines, cook books, cooking shows & the internet are great vehicles
On-line communications very prevalent
Must be current
Leverage video capabilities & social networking
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How to Attract & Stay Current w/Gourmet Cooks
Gourmet Cook households not immune to high gas prices & more likely to:
Buy larger economy-sized products
Shop club stores & the internet
Use coupons
Value Messaging Matters More Than Ever!
Value Pricing
Value Meals
How about Leftover Meal Management Solutions?
While this Holiday season will likely be soft, consumers do show a willingness to spend even when gas prices are high!
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How to Attract & Stay Current w/Gourmet Cooks
Now more than ever, you need to be current on gourmet cook shopper trends to understand:
base needs & interests
shifting shopping & buying patterns
who they are & where they can be found
Nielsen has tools to link gourmet cook demographics with media habits, leisure time activities & stores shopped to enable targeted messages, assortment & promotions
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For daily news and the latest studies, reports, and whitepapers visit www.nielsenwire.com Thank you! [email_address]
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