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Nick Lane, mobileSQUARED, UK mobile update

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  • 1. the mobile landscapeNick Lane, chief strategy analyst, All data/forecasts contained in this presentation copyright of mobileSQUARED unless stated otherwise. Data from Mobile Consumer Trends database
  • 2. About mobileSQUAREDSpecialists in mobile consumer engagementWe do it using Mobile Consumer Trends, the only forward-looking mobileconsumer forecasts, based on extensive ongoing qual/quan mobile marketand consumer research.How we do itWe create the Then segment • Advertising Then • Device type Then wemobile market the data by • Apps by • Age forecastforecasts • Internet • Gender • Messaging • Location • Commerce • Socio-economics
  • 3. Our view of the UK mobile marketNumber of subscriptions will increase from 82.9 million end-2011to 86.02 million by the end of 2016 Total UK mobile subscriptions88,000,00086,000,00084,000,00082,000,00080,000,00078,000,00076,000,00074,000,000 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16
  • 4. Featurephones still dominate but ... 45.8 million90,000,00080,000,00070,000,000 Featurephones/other60,000,000 Other smartphones Microsoft50,000,000 Symbian40,000,000 BlackBerry30,000,000 Android20,000,000 iPhone10,000,000 - 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11
  • 5. ...NOT FOR LONG4 out of 5 phones shipped during 2011 are smartphones
  • 6. Arise Sir SmartphoneSmartphones experiencingunprecedented growth in the UK90,000,000 Smartphones to80,000,000 overtake featurephones70,000,000 Featurephones/other in 4Q201260,000,000 Other smartphones Microsoft50,000,000 Symbian40,000,000 BlackBerry30,000,000 Android20,000,000 iPhone10,000,000 - 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11
  • 7. UK smartphone growth Smartphone penetration: 14% in 2009 24% in 2010 39% end 2011 UK mobile market 4Q2009 Smartphone UK mobile market 4Q2010 UK mobile market 4Q2011
  • 8. Android overtakes iPhone in 2011 as the biggest Platform size by volume up to 2016: 1. Android 2. iOs 3. Blackberry90,000,00080,000,00070,000,000 Legacy Android CAGR 86%60,000,000 Featurephones Other50,000,000 Microsoft40,000,000 Symbian BlackBerry30,000,000 Android20,000,000 iPhone10,000,000 iPhone growth stabilising - 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16
  • 9. 2011According to Mobile Consumer Trends
  • 10. Key usage numbers (4Q2011)Mobile internet users 26.14 million 39%App users 22.02 million 33%Mobile Ad reach 13.62 million 20%M-commerce 16.37 million 24%Opt-in marketing 14 million 21% Nb all MCT data based on 18-64 year olds
  • 11. BIGGER
  • 12. Key usage numbers (4Q2011)Mobile internet users 26.14 million 39%App users 22.02 million 33%Mobile Ad reach 13.62 million 20%M-commerce 16.37 million 24%Opt-in marketing 14 million 21% Nb all MCT data based on 18-64 year olds
  • 13. UK mobile usage landscape 2Q... Mob Int: 7% M-comm: 5% Apps: 1% M-comm: 1% Mob Int: 11% Mobad conversion: M-comm: 12% 65,250 Mob Int: 5% Apps: 5% M-comm: 5% Mob Int: 2% Apps: 2% Mobad conversion: Mob Int: 10% 300,142 Mobad conversion: 514,862 Mob Int: 5% M-comm: 5% Apps: 6% M-comm: 6%Mob Int.: 1.3 mil. Apps: 7% M-comm: 7% Total mobad Apps: 14% reach: 2.5 mil. Total mobad Mob Int: 12% Apps: 18% reach: 16% M-comm: 9% M-comm: 22%
  • 14. ... And 4Q Mob Int: 1.88 mil. M-comm: 929,828 Apps: 1.3% M-comm: 207,927 Mobad conversion: 1.3%Mob Int: 562,055 Apps: 473,363Mobad conversion: Mob Int: 2.7 mil. 408,652 Mobad conversion: 12% Apps: 1.43 mil.M-comm: 1.2 mil. Mob Int.: 6.5% Apps: 1.6 mil. M-comm: 1.3 mil. Total mobad Apps: 3.11 mil. reach: 26% Total mobad Apps: 4.1 mil. reach: 2.12 mil. M-comm: 4.1 mil.
  • 15. Out with the old
  • 16. Smartphone market, 4Q1112,000,00010,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 - iPhone Android BlackBerry Symbian Microsoft Others
  • 17. United Kingdom of Android 858,9167.5 millionNumber of Android mobile internet users in 4Q2011 338,611 1.39 mil. 1.06 mil.
  • 18. 490,526Android app users 781,2256.8 million Number of Android app users in 4Q2011 308,116 496,675 1.26 mil. 965,339
  • 19. App users 2Q11 FEMALE MALE •Number of females using apps has now overtaken male usage •The gender gap will now start to widen, but...
  • 20. Frequent downloader, Heavy downloader, Frequent user Frequent user App user trends 4Q11
  • 21. How appealing are apps? App users by region, 3Q2011 iPhone app users by region, 4Q2011 513,290 322,4157.15 milTotal iPhone users 4Q11 1.32 mil. 463,248 840,709
  • 22. Mobile Responsive browser, mobile purchaser advertisingMobile ad conversion twice as likely in males vs. females Responsive browser, PC purchaser Total mobile advertising reach reach by smartphone Mobile advertising
  • 23. Where is this all heading?
  • 24. There’s money in this M-commerce users by device20,000,00018,000,000 72% of m-commerce users16,000,000 on smartphones in 3Q201214,000,00012,000,000 Non-smartphone10,000,000 Other smartphones Android 8,000,000 iPhone 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 16.3 million Users of m-commerce in 4Q2011 - 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 10.2 million Users of m-commerce in 3Q2012
  • 25. Male vs. female adoption FEMALECONSUMER ADOPTION MALE MOBILE INTERNET Service adoption delay MOBILE COMMERCE 4Q2011 TIME
  • 26. Central, 4Q11 Mobile internet – 3.69 mil.12000001000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 iPhone Android Other App users – 3.11 mil. M-commerce – 2.5 mil. 1200000 700000 1000000 600000 500000 800000 400000 600000 300000 400000 200000 200000 100000 0 0 iPhone Android Other iPhone Android Other
  • 27. Central, 4Q11Mobile internet – 3.69 mil.50.1% female / 49.9% male 18-24 – 282,016 35-44 - 416,573 55-64 – 346,530 App users – 3.11 mil. M-commerce – 2.5 mil. 51% female / 49% male Male – 1,323,051 25-34 – 659,529 total Female – 1,063,647 25-34 – 330,424 female 25-34 – 329,105 male 18-24 – 500,493
  • 28. ConclusionInternet and apps comparable in mobile usageMales more receptive to mobile advertisingAndroid on a march, butGreater interaction/engagement on iPhoneSmartphones to overtake featurephones in 2012Growth will only accelerateNick LaneChief strategy analystmobileSQUAREDnick@mobilesquared.co.uk+44 118 977 6902 Source: Mobile Consumer Trends, in association with