Hill Energy Services – Energy Intelligence Update April 29, 2009
www.Hill-Energy.com
• Crude oil, gasoline and diesel prices have been flat for the past
2008-09 Wholesale Crude Oil & Diesel Prices six weeks. News analysts recently opined that fear of swine flu,
$80 $2.50 and a decrease in travel, was keeping oil prices down. A year
ago, those same analysts probably would have found a reason
$70
why fear of a flu pandemic was contributing to higher oil prices.
$2.00
• Natural gas prices continue to sink. The chart on the left shows
$60
the wholesale (futures) price of gas since 1995. We’re now
approaching a seven-year low, with no compelling signs pointing
$50
$-Barrel Crude
$1.50
to higher prices in the near future. One of the current topics of
$-Gallon
conversation is “What’s a ‘reasonable’ price for gas when prices
$40
rebound?” None of us have crystal balls, but the consensus
` $1.00
$30 seems to be that long-term gas prices will stabilize in the range of
$5 -$7/per mmBtu (dekatherm).
$20
• The Maryland legislature failed to overturn its deregulated retail
$0.50
electricity market. Backers of the effort, including the Governor,
$10
have pledged to try again next year. With energy prices less of a
political issue, it will be interesting to see if they get any traction.
$- $0.00
•
v r r
c n b Data from the US Department of Energy’s 2003 Commercial
No Ma Ap
De Ja Fe
Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBES) shows that lighting
Crude Diesel Gasoline
is still the largest single use of electricity in commercial buildings
and the second largest user of all energy (after space heating).
It’s interesting to note that lighting’s share is down from 44% in
Natural Gas Futures Pricing 1995-2009
1992. However, overall building electricity usage is up by 10% in
the same period. This shows that the push towards high
$16
efficiency lighting is paying off, but also that there is continual
room for improvement in building efficiency. Some engineers
$14
have been known to sneer “it’s only lighting”, but it is still the
baseload of commercial building’s energy consumption.
$12
$ per mmBtu
$10
Average Energy Costs – April 29, 2009
$8
This Week Last Month Last Year
$6 Retail Diesel $2.26 /gal. $2.26/gal $4.24 /gal
Retail Gasoline $2.05/gal. $2.05/gal. $3.60/gal
$4
Crude Oil $ 49.87/bbl $48.49/bbl $119.64/ bbl
$2
Natural Gas $0.332/thm $0.381/thm $1.084 /thm
Sources: US Dept. of Energy, EIA; AAA/OPIS
$0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Disclaimer: This information is provided for the convenience of our customers and potential customers. Hill Energy Services LLC assumes no responsibility or liability for the information in this document. Historical data was obtained from sources believed to be
reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended to provide advice or recommendation. This document may not be reproduced without the specific written permission of Hill Energy Services LLC.

Hill Energy Services – Energy Intelligence Update April 29, 2009
www.Hill-Energy.com
The US Congress is deliberating a Climate Change bill that would seek to reduce
overall US greenhouse gas emissions. The ultimate result would be to place a price on Electricity Consumption (kWh) for All US Commercial Buildings
carbon emissions and drive energy policy towards greater efficiency and cleaner fuel
Heating &
sources. Depending on whose numbers you use, the bill will either be a boon to the Hot Water
Other
“clean tech” sector or a deathblow to American industrial competitiveness. 7%
12%
One of the factors driving this is that the Environmental Protection Agency now has the
Cooling
authority (and willingness) to regulate Carbon Dioxide in the same way that other
14%
pollutants are regulated. Industry leaders like Jim Rogers, CEO of Duke Energy, feel
Refrigeration
that they are better off by shaping the rules of the game rather than fighting the
11%
inevitable. Some of the key issues at play are:
• Should legislation be limited to stationary sources of carbon emissions such as
electric power plants and industrial facilities, or transportation and agriculture Computers &
Ventilation
be included as well? Office
12%
6%
• The Obama administration favors a cap-and-trade system, where by carbon
emissions are capped at a fixed level and companies pay for the right to those
emissions. Part of the debate is focused on whether certain industries, like
steel or coal-fired power plants, should be grandfathered in and given
emissions allocations, or if everything should be on a free-market basis. This
approach obviously is more easily applied to large wholesale purchasers of
energy than to individuals. Lighting
38%
• Other economists favor a carbon tax, which is applied across the board to all
fuel purchases. Under this scenario, one million Btu’s of coal would be taxed
Predicting legislation is like predicting energy prices – it’s a
higher than one million Btu’s of natural gas, due to the higher carbon
hazardous occupation. It is certain that eventually the question of a
emissions of coal. Proponents argue that a constant tax is more predictable
company’s carbon footprint and emissions will go from being a
than the potentially volatile prices under a market-based cap-and-trade
Corporate Sustainability issue to a financial bottom line issue.
system.
• The economic impacts of carbon regulation are unclear. Different sectors of Continuous energy management offers the potential for long-term
the country and the economy will be affected differently. The extremes are and strategic advantages. If you know where your energy and
unlikely to occur: We will probably not see a loss of 2 million jobs, nor will we environmental liabilities lie, you can grow, change and become
necessarily see a windmill on every corner. Past air pollution control efforts leaner. You will be better positioned for future environmental
were a factor in the closing of some industrial facilities, but they also created legislation and energy price increases.
jobs in construction, engineering and environmental science. The American
Council for an Energy Efficiency Economy estimates that the legislation will
increase the country’s energy efficiency by 10 percent.
• Electricity rates will rise as a result of any carbon legislation. Nationally, prices
About Hill Energy Services
have risen 37 percent in the past ten years. It’s an open question whether or
We provide commercial and industrial customers with a full range of tools to help them
not the next decade will see a similar increase and if it would be attributable to
manage both their energy usage and costs. These services include strategic energy
climate change legislation. planning and procurement as well as making buildings systems and processes more
efficient.
Disclaimer: This information is provided for the convenience of our customers and potential customers. Hill Energy Services LLC assumes no responsibility or liability for the information in this document. Historical data was obtained from sources believed to be
reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended to provide advice or recommendation. This document may not be reproduced without the specific written permission of Hill Energy Services LLC.