TRACKING TOMORROW’S TELEVISION TODAY Presentation by Nick DeMartino ATAS Faculty Seminar Fellows. November 10, 2011Thursday, November 10, 2011I hate the future because it’s always wrong.And yet, perhaps foolishly, I’m going to talk aboutthe future of television.Some of the trends we’ll explore are here already, at least for somepeople, but how they evolve for the mass audience is a question. Others are perhaps tenyears out, which means, maybe never.
WHAT I DO: Strategy for the Digital EraThursday, November 10, 201118 months ago I launched a consulting business to help companies navigate the digital era.Most of my work is in content and distribution. For 20 years I was Senior Vice President of theAFI in charge of media and technology. I launched programs like the Digital Content Lab thatbrought together Hwd. & SV.
TEN QUESTIONS • What is a channel? • How do you share? • What is a remote? • Where do you watch? • What is a screen? • How do you create? • What is an ad? • How do you participate? • How do you watch? • What is reality?Thursday, November 10, 2011I’ve formulated ten questions about the future of TV that can help us examine trends. Mythinking has been aided by a survey of industry leaders shared with me by William Gerhardtand his colleagues at Cisco. I will be on a panel with him next week at Georgia Tech. http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/sp/sptl.html
WHAT IS A CHANNEL? • Internet: always on • Video on-demand: downloads & streams • OTT: websites are networks • Time- and place- shiftedThursday, November 10, 2011The days are numbered for the channel as a fundamental organizing principle for content.This concept, and the business rules behind it, was a necessity in order to use theelectromagnetic spectrum efficiently, and it was carried over into cable TV.
WHAT IS A REMOTE? • Keyboard • Second Screen (touch) • Gestural interfaces • Voice command • Facial recognitionThursday, November 10, 2011The remote control was a revolutionary device because it allowed users much greater controlof content consumption. But it’s a primitive and often very annoying interface that is beingreplaced.
WHAT IS A SCREEN? • TV is an application, not a device • Screens are everywhere • Screens get huge • Screens in our pocketThursday, November 10, 2011The invention of the cathode ray tube paralleled the growth of the content and advertisingnetworks that ﬁlled those early screens. Over time, of course, we’ve used screens to displayall sorts of content, to the point where television content is simply another application.
WHAT IS AN AD? • Personalized, targeted • The Virtual Self • Interactive • T-commerce, M-commerce • Content as brand, brand as contentThursday, November 10, 2011Corporate advertising and sponsorship has been ﬁnanced much of television, up until the riseof subscription television. With the rise of the Internet, and its ability to target individualsbased upon data, the form of ads will change again.
HOW DO YOU WATCH? • Watch with friends (real & virtual) • Motion capture, telepresence & holograms • Interact w/content & characters • Viewing becomes persistent & immersive (transmedia)Thursday, November 10, 2011TV viewing is sometimes lonely, sometimes social, often simply ambient -- based uponcircumstances within each household. In the future, other factors outside our physical realitywill help change the viewing envirnoment.
HOW DO YOU SHARE? • Social graph integrated at every level • Content discovery is social • Sharing reﬂected in content formatsThursday, November 10, 2011The social web is the web for most people, and with IP connected TVs, second screens, etc.,the conventions of the social web will naturally extend to the TV experience. It’s happeningalready.
WHERE DO YOU WATCH? • Screens are pervasive • Vivid portable screens • Content (TV) follows you • Cloud storage • Stop & start all dayThursday, November 10, 2011Content consumption left the living room a long time ago. We will view anytime, anywhere.
HOW DO YOU CREATE? • UGC as an emergent form • Faster, better, cheaper tools • Crowd-sourced production • Proliferation of outlets • The rise of the fan/producerThursday, November 10, 2011A great story well told, that’s what we want from our media providers, along withinformation, education, escape. It was a miracle in the 50s, and it remains so, to my mind.But the advent of powerful inexpensive production tools and ubiquitous distribution viaYouTube has created an amazing revolution of content production that is competing foreyeballs and redeﬁning what we think of as Television.
HOW DO YOU PARTICIPATE? • Merger of story forms (linear, games, distributed) • Rise of collaborative narratives • Integration of big data • Fan voting for more than just starsThursday, November 10, 2011The audience is becoming used to being in the picture -- certainly as surrogates, in thetriumph of reality and competition formats -- but also directly in terms of interactive forms.Games are a big factor here. We will see story forms merge, new formats created, greaterinvolvement and immersion.
WHAT IS REALITY? • Multi-sensory experience • Perfected 3D • Holographic video • Olfactory and tactile • Multiple POVs and camera anglesThursday, November 10, 2011McLuhan used the word synesthetic in describing television’s exploitation of multiple senses.We will see additions to the sensory, particularly spatial elements, that bring increasinglyrealistic experiences to life inside the home.
TELEVISION TODAY • IP-enabled TVs/screens • Pervasive social graph • Content in the cloud • TV shows expand • Over-the-top networks • Browsers & search across delivery systems • Apps (TVs, mobile) • The virtual self: Content • Powerful mobile devices follows people • Voice command • 2010 IMPGThursday, November 10, 2011Some of the companies that are relevant: Roku, Apple TV, Google TV, Samsung, LG, Sony,Panasonic, Miso, Get Glue, IntoNow, Zeebox, Sidebar, Siri, iPhone, Android, Facebook,MediaSynch, Shazam, cookies, Locker Project.
YOUR STUDENTS?Thursday, November 10, 2011What kind of jobs should your incoming freshman look for in 4 years, or 7 if they go to gradschool? That’s a lifetime. Content creation and storytelling. Transmedia. Software. Datamining. Interface design. Marketing. Entrepreneurship. Theory. For institutions, the need forrapid prototyping of curriculum and learning experiences butts heads with traditions(including tenure) which can slow down change.
NICK DEMARTINO • TWITTER: • WEBSITE: @nickdemartino www.nickdemartino.net • SLIDESHARE: • BLOG(and newsletter): www.slideshare.net/ www.nickdemartino.net/ nickdemartino blog • EMAIL: • DELICIOUS: email@example.com www.delicious.com/ aﬁnickd/ottThursday, November 10, 2011
Thank You Very MuchThursday, November 10, 2011