Changing Rockford Demographics 2011: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
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  • 1. Presented by Health Systems Research 1601 Parkview Avenue Rockford, Illinois 61107 815.395.5639 May 20, 2011 Presented to Northern Illinois American Advertising Federation
  • 2.  
  • 3. 2000 Population 278,418 2010 Population 295,266
      • Change
    + 16,848 Natural Increase +15,536
      • Births
    + 40,556
      • Deaths
    - 25,020 Net Migration + 1,312
      • International
    + 2,275
      • Domestic
    -963 Source: Census Bureau 2010 Census, 2009 estimates, 2010 components estimated by HSR
  • 4. In-Migrants $38,903 Out-Migrants $41,765 Source: Internal Revenue Service
  • 5.
      • Home prices are attractive for families in the Chicago area, even if they must commute.
      • Rockford area families find selling a home, then purchasing elsewhere to be difficult financially.
    Low price may indicate low demand. Winnebago $111,216 Boone $136,770 Kane $189,563 McHenry $196,981 Cook $256,649 DuPage $279,994
  • 6. County In-Migration From Out-Migration To Net Migration Number Percent Number Percent 2007-2008 Cook 1,314 12.9% 528 9.8% +786 Boone 1,231 12.1% 463 8.6% +768 Rock, WI 575 5.6% 285 5.3% +290 McHenry 353 3.5% 111 2.1% +242 Ogle 635 6.2% 295 5.5% +340 Kane 414 4.1% 142 2.6% +272 Stephenson 291 2.9% 159 3.0% +132 DuPage 254 2.5% 126 2.3% +128 DeKalb 252 2.5% 113 2.1% +139 Other 4,897 47.8% 3,175 58.9% +1,704 Total 10,198 100.0% 5,387 100.0% +4,811 Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income for 2007-2008
  • 7.
      • 2000-2010 housing units +10.1%
      • 2000-2010 population +6.1%
    Year Winnebago County City of Rockford Vacant Percent Vacant Percent 2010 10,464 8.3% 6,727 10.1% 2000 6,424 5.6% 4,412 6.9% 1990 4,939 4.9% 3,307 5.7% 1980 3,683 4.0% 2,448 4.5%
  • 8.  
  • 9.
    • New jobs being created are primarily in the services sector, but service jobs with lower wages and often without benefits are replacing manufacturing jobs.
    • Rockford industries have increasingly lost local control. Few corporate headquarters; no large firms have headquarters here. Lack “daily business air travel” to major cities.
  • 10.
    • Unemployment passed 20% in January 2010, has now “improved” to Winnebago County – 12.9%, Rockford – 14.2%. (March 2011)
    • The MSA has lost about 15,000 manufacturing jobs in the past decade and remains prone to severe cyclical swings. Manufacturing now at 26,500, was at 28,800 in March 2009. Still falling.
    • Second highest manufacturing proportion (25%) among larger counties in the nation (2004 ACS).
  • 11.
    • “ Largest employer” list is dominated by service industries such as education, health and government. These are sectors where we “tax ourselves.” They do not, in general, bring in dollars to build the economy.
  • 12. Rank Employer Employees Type 1. Rockford Public Schools 3,730 Service 2. Rockford Health System 3,003 Service 3. SwedishAmerican Health System 2,988 Service 4. Wal-Mart 2,750 Service 5. OSF St. Anthony Medical Center 2,303 Service 6. Hamilton Sundstrand 2,200 Basic 7. Rockford Park District 1,739 Service 8. Winnebago County 1,731 Service 9. Chrysler 1,700 Basic 10. United Parcel Service 1,600 Basic Source: Rockford Area Economic Development Council
  • 13.  
  • 14. Area 2000 Census (data for 1999) American Community Survey 2005-2009 Change 1999-2005/07 Winnebago County $43,886 $46,882 +6.8% City of Rockford $37,667 $38,486 +0.2% United States $41,994 $51,425 +22.5%
  • 15. WINNEBAGO COUNTY MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 1999 AND 2005/09 BY HOUSEHOLDER AGE Age Group 2000 Census ACS Change 1999 2005/09 15-24 $25,519 $20,374 -$5,145 25-44 $48,289 $50,581 +$2,292 45-64 $55,764 $60,087 +$4,323 65+ $27,089 $30,817 +$3,728
  • 16. WINNEBAGO COUNTY MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 1999 AND 2005/09 BY HOUSEHOLDER RACE/ETHNIC Age Group 2000 Census ACS Change 1999 2005/09 White $45,915 $50,495 +$4,580 Black $28,228 $24,412 -$3,816 Asian $57,500 $63,548 +$6,048 Hispanic $38,823 $34,797 -$4,026
  • 17.
    • Rockford metropolitan area per capita personal income (PCPI) as a percent of the U.S. PCPI has been on a continuous downward slide.
    • PCPI includes all wealth, not just earnings - but also dividends, interest, government programs.
    Year Percent of U.S. PCPI Metro Rank 2009 78% 266 2000 90% 143 1990 98% 97 1980 103% 79 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
  • 18.
    • Only two Illinois metropolitan areas had a lower per capita personal income than Rockford for 2009. (BEA)
    Metropolitan Area Per Capita Personal Income Chicago $43,727 Springfield $40,109 Peoria $39,568 Decatur $38,991 Bloomington-Normal $38,818 Quad Cities $38,065 Rockford $31,915 Kankakee $31,359 Danville $31,311
  • 19.  
  • 20.
    • Lower income shoppers are the fastest growing income group in the Rockford area and nation.
      • In total, growth is outpacing higher income households.
    • Compared with other groups, budget-constrained shoppers:
      • Shop more frequently, but spend less per trip
      • Switch retailers and brands more often
      • Key groups – younger adults, single parents, elderly, minority
  • 21.  
  • 22. PERSONAL INCOME SOURCES: 1998-2009 Source 2009 1998 Earnings 62% 69% Dividends, interest, rent 16% 19% Transfer (gov) receipts 21% 12% Total 100.0% 100.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 23.
    • Nearly one in four persons (23.0%) are enrolled in Medicaid and related programs, 68,916 in 2009.
    • Of Winnebago County households 22,643 receive food stamps. (Nov. 2009)
    • Half (50.3%) of Winnebago County 2008 were to unmarried mothers, a predictor of poverty and “welfare”, Rockford – 57.6%.
  • 24.  
  • 25. Occupation Winnebago County United States 2005/ 2009 2000 Change 2005/ 2009 2000 Change Management, professional 28.6% 29.7% -1.1% 34.8% 33.6% +1.2% Service 16.7% 12.9% +3.8% 16.9% 14.9% +2.0% Sales and office 27.0% 26.7% +0.3% 25.6% 26.7% -1.1% Farming 0.1% 0.2% -0.1% 0.7% 0.7% --- Construction 7.5% 8.6% -1.1% 9.5% 9.4% +0.1% Production, transportation 20.1% 22.0% -1.9% 12.5% 14.6% -2.1%
  • 26.  
  • 27.
    • The diversity increase from 1950-2010 has been significant for several groups.
    1950–2010 GROWTH Race/Ethnic Numerical Change Black +34,147 Hispanic +29,008 Asian +6,617
  • 28.
    • From 2000-2010, Winnebago County grew by 16,848 from 278,418 to 295,266.
    • Net growth was primarily composed of additional minority persons.
    • Numeric Pct. of Race/Ethnic Group Change Growth
    • White, non Hispanic -6,621 -39.3%
    • Hispanic +12,971 77.0%
    • Black +6,791 40.3%
    • Asian +2,030 12.0%
    • From 2000-2010, growth was virtually all minority.
  • 29. Race/Ethnic 2010 2000 2000-2010 Change No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. White 214,196 72.5% 220,817 79.3% -6,621 -3.0% Black 35,358 12.0% 29,038 10.4% 6,320 +21.8% Hispanic 32,177 10.9% 19,206 6.9% 12,971 +67.5% American Indian 563 0.2% 584 0.2% -21 -3.6% Asian/Pacific Isl. 6,722 2.3% 4,795 1.7% 1,927 +40.2% Multiple Races/Other 6,250 2.1% 3,978 1.4% -2,272 +57.1% Total 295,266 100.0% 278,418 100.0% 16,848 +6.1% Except for Hispanic, all races are non-Hispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  • 30.
    • At the current growth rate, the county will have about 45,000 Hispanics by 2020 or one-seventh of the projected county population.
    Source: 1990-2010 Census Bureau 2020 Health Systems Research
    • Hispanics population will be larger than the Black population.
    Year Hispanic Population 1990 7,771 2000 19,206 2010 32,177 2020 (est.) 45,148
  • 31. Year (Sept. 30) Total Enroll-ment White Black Hispanic Asian Amer. Indian Multi- Racial 1 2010 27,097 9,568 35.3% 8,083 29.8% 6,626 24.5% 1,008 3.7% 50 0.2% 1,758 6.5% 2000 26,047 13,340 51.2% 8,184 31.4% 3,678 14.1% 800 3.1% 45 0.2% Not Available 1990 26,554 18,534 69.8% 5,975 22.5% 1,275 4.8% 743 2.8% 27 0.1% 1980 32,407 24,613 75.9% 6,384 19.7% 866 2.7% 367 1.1% 177 0.5% 1 Multiracial added as a category beginning 2004. Source: Rockford School District Fall Housing Report
  • 32.
    • Minority populations will continue to grow and constitute a larger proportion of the population.
    • “ Hispanic Wave” continuing, though immigration may be slowing. Hispanic community established
    • Minority birth rates are much higher than white, non-Hispanic.
    • Young minority populations, median ages – white (39.7), Asian (34.5), Black (27.5), Hispanic (24.8). (2005/09 American Community Survey)
  • 33.  
  • 34. Family Type Winnebago County Rockford City In family households 74,844 40,262 Married couple 62.9% 51.5% Male single parent 6.2% 6.9% Female single parent 30.1% 40.8% Non-family household 0.1% 0.1% Source: American Community Survey: 2005-2009
  • 35. Race/ Ethnic Married Couple Single Female Grand- Parent White 73.2% 14.0% 4.0% Black 26.5% 49.5% 12.2% Hispanic 60.7% 16.8% 5.8% Asian 80.7% 6.8% 4.3% 1 Updated information not available
  • 36. DEFINITION: Pupils age 3 to 17, inclusive, from families receiving Public Aid, living in institutions for neglected or delinquent children, being supported in foster homes with public funds, or eligible to receive free or reduced-price lunches. Free lunch is available if household income is below 130% of poverty, reduced price lunch under 185%. Group Percent Low Income District 205 75.3% State 45.4% High Schools (est.) 65.3% Elementary (est.) 76.6% Source: ISBE Report Card 2010
  • 37. Source: Census Bureau American Community Survey: 2008-2009 Voices for Illinois Children, 2011 Community Child Poverty Rockford 38.9% Peoria 33.0% Chicago 30.8% Waukegan 24.5% Springfield 23.4% Cicero 22.6% Elgin 19.1% Aurora 17.3% Joliet 16.9% Naperville 4.2%
  • 38.  
  • 39.
    • 80% currently graduate from Rockford high schools. (77% black, 77% Hispanic, 82% white) – according to the 2010 Report Card.
    • However, the Report Cards do not provide an accurate picture of the graduation rates .
  • 40. Race/Ethnic Gender Entered 9 th Fall 2003 Graduated June 2007 Percent Graduated White, non-Hispanic Male 628 353 56.2% Female 570 374 65.6% Black, non-Hispanic Male 497 157 31.6% Female 508 246 48.4% Asian/ Pacific Islander Male 44 27 61.4% Female 34 25 73.5% Hispanic Male 214 94 43.9% Female 220 106 48.2% Total 2,718 1,386 51.0%
    • Source: Fall Housing Report 2003
        • ISBE Graduates 2007
  • 41. PERCENT MEETING OR EXCEEDING STANDARDS High School 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Auburn 41.5% 42.3% 38.9% 38.1% 50.9% 51.4% East 30.8% 31.8% 23.7% 23.9% 30.5% 22.7% Guilford 39.0% 36.8% 38.3% 46.1% 46.6% 52.1% Jefferson 27.8% 30.7% 28.2% 29.6% 34.9% 41.3% District 35.2% 35.2% 33.6% 36.4% 41.8% 42.9% State 53.0% 53.0% 52.5% 52.6% 54.3% 54.9% Source: ISBE, Prairie State Achievement Examination
  • 42.  
  • 43.
    • The Rockford Area continues to trail the state and nation in residents with a Bachelor’s Degree.
    Year City of Rockford Winn. County Illinois U.S. 2005 - 2009 (ACS) 19.9% 20.5% 29.8% 27.5% 2000 (Census) 19.8% 19.4% 26.1% 24.4%
  • 44.
    • Few GENXers. Ages 25-39 with college degree comprise 1.2% of our population compared to 2.2% for the nation.
    Educational Attainment United States Winnebago Differ-ence Less than 9 th grade 6.4% 5.6% -0.8% 9 th to 12 th grade, no diploma 9.1% 10.7% +1.6% HS Grad (includes GED) 29.3% 34.2% +4.9% Some college, no degree 20.3% 21.5% +1.2% Associate’s degree 7.4% 7.6% +0.2% Bachelor’s degree 17.4% 13.6% -3.8% Grad or professional degree 10.1% 6.8% -3.3% Percent HS graduate or higher 84.6% 83.8% -0.8% Percent bach. degree or higher 27.5% 20.5% -7.0% Source: American Community Survey
  • 45.
    • For the first time, information is available on college enrollment for Rockford Public School 205 graduates in the first year after graduation.
    • Source: Rockford District 205
      • National Student Clearinghouse
    DISTRICT 205 GRADUATES ATTENDING COLLEGE: 2010 Area 2-Year 4-Year Total District 30.0% 19.0% 49.0% U.S. 28.0% 42.0% 70.0%
  • 46.  
  • 47.
    • Some elected officials and community leaders have contended that expansion of our social problems is being driven by “people from Chicago” coming to Rockford because the social services system is so good. Is this true?
      • Little evidence, mostly anecdotes about “people from Chicago.”
      • Of course people are coming from Chicago! Cook County has 5.3 million people, so certainly many come this way and Rockfordians move to Chicago. In other times, we would be proud that individuals are moving here.
  • 48.
      • Movers tend to be low income, unemployed renters, those in poverty move more often.
      • Virtually all Illinois communities blame “Chicago” for social ills, supposedly because of their excellent social services. However, services are similar in all larger communities.
      • Why would low income persons choose the community with the highest unemployment?
  • 49.
      • These problems are our own – low educational attainment, crime and a declining economy.
      • Believing that social problems are generated by “Chicagoans” is counterproductive, keeping us from improving locally and seeking solutions.
      • Blaming social services comes at a time of increasing needs and reduced support. A strong set of services is essential.
  • 50.  
  • 51.