Long-term Household Growth Projections<br />Richard GabayHousing Needs Policy and Research GroupPolicy and Research Divisi...
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />2<br />Presentation Overview<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />3<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />4<br />Household Projections at CMHC<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />5<br />Household Projections at CMHC<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />6<br />
PHD Modelling Framework<br />CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />7<br />Base population<br />Survival rates<br />...
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />8<br />Headship Rate Approach<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />9<br />Household Formation vs Housing Demand<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />10<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />11<br />Projection Scenarios<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />12<br />Population Growth Assumptions<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />13<br />International Migration Scenarios<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />14<br />Household Growth Assumptions<br />
Family and Non-family Headship Rates<br />CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />15<br />1971<br />2006<br />Non-fam...
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />16<br />Population Growth Projections<br /><ul><li>Population rises by 9.3 mi...
Immigration slows the impact of population ageing</li></li></ul><li>CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />17<br />P...
Births rise initially but decline after 2020</li></li></ul><li>Household Growth Projections<br />CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSI...
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />19<br />Household Growth Projected to Decline<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />20<br />Non-family Households Expected to Make Gains<br /><ul><li>Continued b...
Biggest contribution to household growth occurred with the transition from age 15-19 to age 20-24 (1971 to 1976)
Later transitions make progressively smaller contributions to growth
Future growth rests on relative size and pace of growth of young adult population.</li></li></ul><li>CANADA MORTGAGE AND H...
Singles growth rises until 2011 in all scenarios,  then declines
Apartment growth flat in High scenario until 2016, then falls gradually
Growth in Other declines throughout projection in all scenarios</li></li></ul><li>CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<...
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />24<br />Aggregate Ownership Rate<br />Ownership rate projected to range from ...
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />25<br />Owner Household Growth Likely Peaked<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />26<br />Renter Household Growth Projected to Rise<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />27<br />Projection Considerations<br />
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />28<br />Major Implications<br />
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Long‐term Household Projections

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How will slower population growth and a rising average age affect household growth and the overall rate of home ownership over the long‐term? To help answer these questions, CMHC has developed long‐term, demographics‐driven projections of household and ownership growth for Canada.

Richard Gabay,
Senior Researcher,
CMHC

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Transcript of "Long‐term Household Projections"

  1. 1. Long-term Household Growth Projections<br />Richard GabayHousing Needs Policy and Research GroupPolicy and Research Division<br />Presentation to NHRC Working Group on Housing Data<br />2 November 2009<br />
  2. 2. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />2<br />Presentation Overview<br />
  3. 3. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />3<br />
  4. 4. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />4<br />Household Projections at CMHC<br />
  5. 5. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />5<br />Household Projections at CMHC<br />
  6. 6. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />6<br />
  7. 7. PHD Modelling Framework<br />CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />7<br />Base population<br />Survival rates<br />Fertility rates<br />Migration<br />Projected headship rates<br />(family & non-family, by age)<br />Projected population <br />(age & sex)<br />Projected households<br />(family & non-family, <br />by age)<br />Projected ownership rates<br />(family & non-family, by age)<br />Projected dwelling type rates<br />(family & non-family, by tenure, age)<br />Projected households<br />(family & non-family, by tenure, dwelling type & age)<br />
  8. 8. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />8<br />Headship Rate Approach<br />
  9. 9. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />9<br />Household Formation vs Housing Demand<br />
  10. 10. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />10<br />
  11. 11. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />11<br />Projection Scenarios<br />
  12. 12. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />12<br />Population Growth Assumptions<br />
  13. 13. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />13<br />International Migration Scenarios<br />
  14. 14. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />14<br />Household Growth Assumptions<br />
  15. 15. Family and Non-family Headship Rates<br />CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />15<br />1971<br />2006<br />Non-family<br />Family<br />Non-family<br />Family<br />
  16. 16. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />16<br />Population Growth Projections<br /><ul><li>Population rises by 9.3 million in the Strong scenario; by nearly 8 million in the Moderate scenario
  17. 17. Immigration slows the impact of population ageing</li></li></ul><li>CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />17<br />Population Aging Means Declining Growth<br />Compounded Annual Growth, Adult Population<br /><ul><li>Population growth decelerates due ageing and continued low fertility
  18. 18. Births rise initially but decline after 2020</li></li></ul><li>Household Growth Projections<br />CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />18<br />2006<br />2036<br />
  19. 19. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />19<br />Household Growth Projected to Decline<br />
  20. 20. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />20<br />Non-family Households Expected to Make Gains<br /><ul><li>Continued but slower rise in the share of non-family households expected</li></li></ul><li>CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />21<br />Why the Decline in Household Growth? <br /><ul><li>People born from 1952-1956 reached ages 15-19 in 1971 and 50-54 in 2006
  21. 21. Biggest contribution to household growth occurred with the transition from age 15-19 to age 20-24 (1971 to 1976)
  22. 22. Later transitions make progressively smaller contributions to growth
  23. 23. Future growth rests on relative size and pace of growth of young adult population.</li></li></ul><li>CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />22<br />Household Growth by Dwelling Type<br /><ul><li>Age-specific dwelling type rates held constant at 2006 values
  24. 24. Singles growth rises until 2011 in all scenarios, then declines
  25. 25. Apartment growth flat in High scenario until 2016, then falls gradually
  26. 26. Growth in Other declines throughout projection in all scenarios</li></li></ul><li>CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />23<br />Ownership Rate Scenarios<br />
  27. 27. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />24<br />Aggregate Ownership Rate<br />Ownership rate projected to range from 66.8% to 73.5% in 2036<br />
  28. 28. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />25<br />Owner Household Growth Likely Peaked<br />
  29. 29. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />26<br />Renter Household Growth Projected to Rise<br />
  30. 30. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />27<br />Projection Considerations<br />
  31. 31. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />28<br />Major Implications<br />
  32. 32. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />29<br />
  33. 33. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />30<br />Comparison With Other Projections<br />
  34. 34. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION<br />31<br />Household Growth Projections<br />*Average yearly household formation is computed over the years 2005-2010, 2010-2015 and 2015-2020.<br />†The annual average in the last period of the projection is computed over the years 2026-2030.<br />

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