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Long‐term Household Projections
 
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How will slower population growth and a rising average age affect household growth and the overall rate of home ownership over the long‐term? To help answer these questions, CMHC has developed ...

How will slower population growth and a rising average age affect household growth and the overall rate of home ownership over the long‐term? To help answer these questions, CMHC has developed long‐term, demographics‐driven projections of household and ownership growth for Canada.

Richard Gabay,
Senior Researcher,
CMHC

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    Long‐term Household Projections Long‐term Household Projections Presentation Transcript

    • Long-term Household Growth Projections
      Richard GabayHousing Needs Policy and Research GroupPolicy and Research Division
      Presentation to NHRC Working Group on Housing Data
      2 November 2009
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      2
      Presentation Overview
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      3
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      4
      Household Projections at CMHC
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      5
      Household Projections at CMHC
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      6
    • PHD Modelling Framework
      CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      7
      Base population
      Survival rates
      Fertility rates
      Migration
      Projected headship rates
      (family & non-family, by age)
      Projected population
      (age & sex)
      Projected households
      (family & non-family,
      by age)
      Projected ownership rates
      (family & non-family, by age)
      Projected dwelling type rates
      (family & non-family, by tenure, age)
      Projected households
      (family & non-family, by tenure, dwelling type & age)
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      8
      Headship Rate Approach
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      9
      Household Formation vs Housing Demand
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      10
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      11
      Projection Scenarios
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      12
      Population Growth Assumptions
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      13
      International Migration Scenarios
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      14
      Household Growth Assumptions
    • Family and Non-family Headship Rates
      CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      15
      1971
      2006
      Non-family
      Family
      Non-family
      Family
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      16
      Population Growth Projections
      • Population rises by 9.3 million in the Strong scenario; by nearly 8 million in the Moderate scenario
      • Immigration slows the impact of population ageing
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      17
      Population Aging Means Declining Growth
      Compounded Annual Growth, Adult Population
      • Population growth decelerates due ageing and continued low fertility
      • Births rise initially but decline after 2020
    • Household Growth Projections
      CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      18
      2006
      2036
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      19
      Household Growth Projected to Decline
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      20
      Non-family Households Expected to Make Gains
      • Continued but slower rise in the share of non-family households expected
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      21
      Why the Decline in Household Growth?
      • People born from 1952-1956 reached ages 15-19 in 1971 and 50-54 in 2006
      • Biggest contribution to household growth occurred with the transition from age 15-19 to age 20-24 (1971 to 1976)
      • Later transitions make progressively smaller contributions to growth
      • Future growth rests on relative size and pace of growth of young adult population.
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      22
      Household Growth by Dwelling Type
      • Age-specific dwelling type rates held constant at 2006 values
      • Singles growth rises until 2011 in all scenarios, then declines
      • Apartment growth flat in High scenario until 2016, then falls gradually
      • Growth in Other declines throughout projection in all scenarios
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      23
      Ownership Rate Scenarios
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      24
      Aggregate Ownership Rate
      Ownership rate projected to range from 66.8% to 73.5% in 2036
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      25
      Owner Household Growth Likely Peaked
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      26
      Renter Household Growth Projected to Rise
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      27
      Projection Considerations
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      28
      Major Implications
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      29
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      30
      Comparison With Other Projections
    • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
      31
      Household Growth Projections
      *Average yearly household formation is computed over the years 2005-2010, 2010-2015 and 2015-2020.
      †The annual average in the last period of the projection is computed over the years 2026-2030.