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How will slower population growth and a rising average age affect household growth and the overall rate of home ownership over the long‐term? To help answer these questions, CMHC has developed …

How will slower population growth and a rising average age affect household growth and the overall rate of home ownership over the long‐term? To help answer these questions, CMHC has developed long‐term, demographics‐driven projections of household and ownership growth for Canada.

Richard Gabay,
Senior Researcher,
CMHC

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  • 1. Long-term Household Growth Projections
    Richard GabayHousing Needs Policy and Research GroupPolicy and Research Division
    Presentation to NHRC Working Group on Housing Data
    2 November 2009
  • 2. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    2
    Presentation Overview
  • 3. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    3
  • 4. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    4
    Household Projections at CMHC
  • 5. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    5
    Household Projections at CMHC
  • 6. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    6
  • 7. PHD Modelling Framework
    CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    7
    Base population
    Survival rates
    Fertility rates
    Migration
    Projected headship rates
    (family & non-family, by age)
    Projected population
    (age & sex)
    Projected households
    (family & non-family,
    by age)
    Projected ownership rates
    (family & non-family, by age)
    Projected dwelling type rates
    (family & non-family, by tenure, age)
    Projected households
    (family & non-family, by tenure, dwelling type & age)
  • 8. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    8
    Headship Rate Approach
  • 9. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    9
    Household Formation vs Housing Demand
  • 10. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    10
  • 11. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    11
    Projection Scenarios
  • 12. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    12
    Population Growth Assumptions
  • 13. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    13
    International Migration Scenarios
  • 14. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    14
    Household Growth Assumptions
  • 15. Family and Non-family Headship Rates
    CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    15
    1971
    2006
    Non-family
    Family
    Non-family
    Family
  • 16. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    16
    Population Growth Projections
    • Population rises by 9.3 million in the Strong scenario; by nearly 8 million in the Moderate scenario
    • 17. Immigration slows the impact of population ageing
  • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    17
    Population Aging Means Declining Growth
    Compounded Annual Growth, Adult Population
    • Population growth decelerates due ageing and continued low fertility
    • 18. Births rise initially but decline after 2020
  • Household Growth Projections
    CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    18
    2006
    2036
  • 19. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    19
    Household Growth Projected to Decline
  • 20. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    20
    Non-family Households Expected to Make Gains
    • Continued but slower rise in the share of non-family households expected
  • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    21
    Why the Decline in Household Growth?
    • People born from 1952-1956 reached ages 15-19 in 1971 and 50-54 in 2006
    • 21. Biggest contribution to household growth occurred with the transition from age 15-19 to age 20-24 (1971 to 1976)
    • 22. Later transitions make progressively smaller contributions to growth
    • 23. Future growth rests on relative size and pace of growth of young adult population.
  • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    22
    Household Growth by Dwelling Type
    • Age-specific dwelling type rates held constant at 2006 values
    • 24. Singles growth rises until 2011 in all scenarios, then declines
    • 25. Apartment growth flat in High scenario until 2016, then falls gradually
    • 26. Growth in Other declines throughout projection in all scenarios
  • CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    23
    Ownership Rate Scenarios
  • 27. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    24
    Aggregate Ownership Rate
    Ownership rate projected to range from 66.8% to 73.5% in 2036
  • 28. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    25
    Owner Household Growth Likely Peaked
  • 29. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    26
    Renter Household Growth Projected to Rise
  • 30. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    27
    Projection Considerations
  • 31. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    28
    Major Implications
  • 32. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    29
  • 33. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    30
    Comparison With Other Projections
  • 34. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
    31
    Household Growth Projections
    *Average yearly household formation is computed over the years 2005-2010, 2010-2015 and 2015-2020.
    †The annual average in the last period of the projection is computed over the years 2026-2030.