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5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]

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This report analyses the five most striking trends which I believe we’ll have to face this year, such as Internet of things, wearable computer, big data and privacy issues, humanisation of machines......

This report analyses the five most striking trends which I believe we’ll have to face this year, such as Internet of things, wearable computer, big data and privacy issues, humanisation of machines and hybrid world.
Trends are commented on by many well-known experts from all over the world, including Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow, Director, Interaction and Experience Research, Intel, Lidia Geringer de Oedenberg, Treasurer in the European Parliament; Zuzanna Skalska, Head of Trends at VanBerlo; Chris Cobb and John McHale, Creative Directors at Sapient Nitro, New York-based artist Adam Harvey; Jan Rezab, CEO at Socialbakers; Miles Lewis, Vice-President at Shazam and Borys Musielak, creator of Filmaster.TV.

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  • 1. Trendbook 20131Trendbook2013 Strategic Partner Edition PartnerInternetof ThingsKiedy firmy wiedzą o nas więcej niż mysami, czyli big data i prywatnośćW przypadku tzw. big data nie chodzitylko o ogrom informacji, które gene-rujemy. Bardziej istotne są dwie innekwestie. Pierwsza – że marketerzymają do dyspozycji tzw. nieustruktury-zowane dane. Druga – że konsumencimają świadomość postępującej utratyprywatności.Big data& privacyHumanisationof machinesHybridworldQuo vadis,homodigitalus?Wearablecomputers
  • 2. Trendbook 20132I am deeply thankful to Intel Polska - the Strategic Partner of TrendBook 2013 – for their fantastic, incredibly substantive, andfruitful cooperation. It is thanks to this cooperation that I had the opportunity to attend the 2013 International CES in January,which, by the way, is where the final shape of this year’s TrendBook formed in my head. Intel supported me with their knowledge,reports, and data in all the areas I am writing about this year. There is no denying that when it comes to such phenomena as theInternet of things, smart world, or the humanisation of machines, you will not find a more competent and reliable partner thanIntel - the technological leader in such solutions.I would also like to thank the Polish branch of Universal McCann - the Partner of this Edition - for the help and content-relatedsupport in all the fields in which I try to translate new technologies into marketing solutions.A final bow of gratitude goes out to all the experts commenting on the trends in this year’s issue of TrendBook for their time andwillingness to share their experience and expertise.
  • 3. Trendbook 20133IntroductionI have been wondering lately how it is that I devote so muchspace to new technologies. After all, my main area of interestis still non-traditional advertising, broadly defined marketingcommunications, and new trends. I was quite astonishedto learn that in March Piotr Stasiak, who works for RingierAxel Springer Polska and is responsible for the developmentof Newsweek.pl and Forbes.pl, mentioned my blog at Pressamong the ones where he reads about new technologies(alongside such blogs as Antyweb or Spidersweb). In January,thanks to my collaboration with Intel Polska (the StrategicPartner of TrendBook 2013), I went to this year’s InternationalCES – the world’s largest trade show on new technologies. Fortwo years, I had been following what had been going on atthis event and had repeatedly referred to the CES news in myspeeches and blog posts. However, I still doubted whether thisevent was the right place for me. Luckily, my doubts proved tobe groundless, and as it turned out, I was not the only represen-tative of the media and advertising industry there. The eventcaused the biggest advertising agencies, media houses, and themedia itself to come to Vegas for the show. And it is in Vegaswhere the TrendBook 2013’s first shape formed in my head.Take the above and add to that the Gartner forecast sayingthat by 2017, a marketing executive is expected to spend moremoney on IT solutions than an IT executive himself, and eve-rything makes perfect sense. Modern marketing has undoub-tedly changed. Its future is inextricably intertwined with thecutting-edge technological developments and – more thanwe would wish - with data analysis, unstructured data in par-ticular. Advertising agencies, including the ones in Poland, arelooking for people with skills in new technology developmentand implementation. It is more and more common that ina team responsible for a campaign, an IT specialist is just asessential as a creative director and copywriter. Therefore, itis no wonder that, writing about non-traditional campaigns,I also refer to recent technolo-gies, and that they are the topicto which TrendBook 2013 is en-tirely devoted.Traditionally, this year’s Trend-Book again focuses on fivetrends; however, for the firsttime they all revolve aroundone key theme – the Internet.Nevertheless, this is not the Internet as we came to know it,whether wire-provided or on our mobile device. It is about theInternet which is ubiquitous. I deeply believe that, while dealingwith the third wave of the Internet – the so-called Internet ofthings – we are gradually approaching the post-mobile era. Forthis reason, the watchword of TrendBook 2013 is the sentenceI heard during one of the panels at this year’s CES, “Stop talkingabout smartphones and start talking about the connected world.”I wish you a good read and a lot of inspiration.Natalia HatalskaGdańsk, May 2013According to theGartner forecastby 2017 a marketingexecutive is expectedto spend more moneyon IT solutions than anIT executive himself.
  • 4. Trendbook 20134Whichpredictionsfor 2012 havecome true?
  • 5. Trendbook 20135Social media clutterThere is no denying that 2012 was the year when people,both in Poland and worldwide, stopped associating socialmedia with Facebook only. As reflected in the June com-score report, Pinterest was the fastest-growing social-ne-tworking website last year (the YoY growth of +4000% - seeFigure 1). Tere was also an upward trend for Instagram,snapped up by Facebook in the first half of the year forroughly $1 billion. Another hot topic was Google+, which,according to the December data from Global Web Index,is now the second most popular global social platform (seeFigure 2). Western experts are starting to voice the opi-nion that young Internet users are becoming bored withFigure 1Pinterest users (000) in the period March 2011 to May 2012. Pinterest was the fastest-growing social network site as oflast year.Source: Comscore, June 2012Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 6. Trendbook 20136Thinking about the Internet, which of the following have you everdone?Figure 2There has been a marked rise in using Twitter in Poland.Source: Wave 6: Biznes w społecznościach, Universal McCann, November 2012start my own blogupload photos to a photo sharing site (e.g. flickr.com)upload a video to a platform like YouTubewatch video clips on video platformsuse instant messengersuse a microblogging servicevisit a forumcreate a profile in a new social networking sitemanage a profile in an existing social networking siteFigure 3Total Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram users in Poland in the period January 2010 to January 2013Source: Megapanel PBI/Gemiusinstagram.com pinterest.com twitter.comWhich predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 7. Trendbook 20137Figure 4The scope of Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram among Polish users in the period January 2010 to January 2013Source: Megapanel PBI/Gemiusinstagram.com pinterest.com twitter.comFacebook, which has been muscled out by Instagramand Snapchat. At this year’s CES Consumer Panel, not onepanellist (aged 18-24) mentioned Facebook among theirfavourite social networks (the top two being Tumblr andTwitter). The Wave 6: Biznes w społecznościach report (thePolish edition of Wave 6: The Business of Social), publishedby UM in November 2012, says that Polish users are gradu-ally taking to Twitter – next to blogs and YouTube, Twitteris one of the three social media whose usership in Polandrocketed last year (see Figure 3). In the second half of 2012,Twitter was also the one to lead the way in terms of customsocial media campaigns (see Top 10 applications of Twitterin custom advertising). According to the PBI (Polish InternetResearch) data, the scope of Twitter, Pinterest, and Insta-gram among Polish Internet users in 2012 was 9.51%, 2.29%,and 2.5% respectively (see Figure 4 and 5).Jan Rezab,CEO, SocialbakersOver the last year we have seenan increasing number of brandsusing social media as a marketingand communications channel.When used properly, social me-dia provides a great platform forcustomer service and reaching new customers. However asbrand presence has increased, it has become increasinglynoisy and difficult for them to stand out. That s why it s im-portant to analyze impact and reach (amongst other things)to maximize the effect of your campaigns.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 8. Trendbook 20138Marcin NiewęgłowskiOwner of OMG! PR, Socjomania.plThe goings-on of Facebook arestarting to echo the NK case froma few years ago (transl. note – nk.plis the Polish social networking site).Back then, there was a big com-motion that one Wroclaw-basedportal was able to attract at leastevery other Polish Internet user tospend their on-line time roamingits pages. Sadly, it was all about thequantity, not quality, and it was too one-sided, not socially--oriented enough. Certain solutions were designed andimplemented, but they later proved fruitless. Users wereinundated with ads and irrelevant messages, which drovethem away in search of an alternative. As it turned out, thisalternative was Facebook. It offered genuine (as far as it’spossible on-line) relations with friends. It was and still is thetop reason for using Zuckerberg’s site.However, I get the impression that over the years Facebook’ssocial spirit has been slowly dying down. It has transformedfrom a social media into a money-obsessed media platform.I’m neither a financial analyst nor a stock exchange expert;therefore, it is not my place to say whether Facebook’sNASDAQ debut was a smart business move or not. WhatI know, however, is that it is eating Facebook from the in-side. Whenever there is news about its new developmentsor improvements, they mainly are to do with advertising.As of now, Facebook already provides several dozen mar-keting solutions, related not only to the display sphere (tra-ditional banner ads), but to e-mailing (paid messages fromthe profile level), RTB, or search engine use. And that’s notall - other ‘improvements’ are coming soon. Facebook wantsto launch its affiliate network - an external ad platformthat would use such elements as measuring buttons nextto articles on websites. Another item in the basket of plan-ned novelties is an absurd option of promoting other users’posts (no, not brands or fan pages) and their friends’ shares.Another addition is supposed to be rich media pop-up adsappearing in newsfeed (video materials). That means theseeds of pop-up solutions visible on other Internet portalswill be planted in Facebook’s walled garden. And what’slooming on the horizon is the prospect of spreading theseseeds to the mobile sphere.The worst thing is that Zuckerberg’s platform is slowly killingthat which laid foundations of its creation – its social spirit. Itis enough to look at the recent February Socialbakers reportfor Poland. Which posts engage users the most? Those ofthe “noughts and crosses" type. According to the last year’ssurvey conducted by Sterne Agee, users themselves havenoticed the increase in the number of ads over the last se-veral months. Moreover, 60% of respondents stated thatthe significance, quality, and relevance of the content haddeteriorated. In this context,there is one thing that strikesme. Considering the fact thatFacebook itself has failed toattract a sufficient number ofits members to vote on thechanges to the site’s privacyand governance policies, theeffectiveness of its marketingservices remains a  big que-stion mark.Paradoxically, neither in Poland nor anywhere else in theworld can we notice the trend of mass exodus from Fa-cebook. Two events would have to occur in order for thatto happen. Firstly, Zuckerberg would have to, colloquiallyspeaking, push his luck completely to make users aban-don him. That could be done by, for example, turning 50%of the newsfeed posts users get into ads. Secondly, a rivalplatform would have to give them something more usefuland socially-oriented than what Facebook has to offer. Itwould have to be a fresh face of social networking evolution,catering for the current on-line media consumption needs.Though I’ve already warmed to Twitter, I do not expect itto thrive in Poland. Despite almost 2-million visitors permonth, this microblogging platform seems a slightly morecomplicated form of social networking - not the averageFacebook user’s cup of tea. However, for a long time now,I have been following the developmental path of other mic-roblogging platform in Poland - Tumblr. Today, it is visitedby more than one million users in our country. In addition,it’s available in the Polish language version. While Twitterrevolves around 140-character text-based messages, Tumblrruns in a similar vein but through photos and videos. It is saidthat the Polish membership base of LinkedIn is estimated at4-5 million. What about YouTube and Google+? YouTubealone is unable to steal away Facebook users because it’sa platform of a slightly different type. In tandem with Go-ogle+, however, that could be possible. But for now, thesocial platform Google+ itself is not...social enough.To me, one thing is certain. After the Facebook era, whichI believe will last until the end of 2014, we will witness thesame sort of verticalisation that happened to Internet me-dia. Specialised, vertical networking sites addressed to a spe-cific market will come out on top.Over the yearsFacebook’s socialspirit has been slowlydying down. It hastransformed froma social media intoa money-obsessedmedia platform.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 9. Trendbook 20139Social TVWhile I get a star for the accurate forecast when it comesto the first trend, in the case of social TV, however, the si-tuation is rather unclear. On the one hand, we had twoShazam-based campaigns in Poland (both in the motorcycleindustry – Shazam was used by Mercedes and Nissan), andVoodooDance developed a 2nd screen platform for TVP1(allowing interaction with the programmes/TV commercialsin real time via a mobile phone/web site/FB application). But,on the other hand, social TV has not yet reached its tippingpoint here as it has in the West. The main reason seems tobe the fact that, in Poland, we are still quite “attached tothe wire” data, and that the most popular second screenapplication now is Twitter (still in the nascent stage in ourcountry).Suffice it to look at the data on this years Super Bowl - morethan half of the spots aired in the ad breaks mentionedTwitter, and the event alone generated more than 24 milliontweets. The strong position of Twitter in the category ofsocial TV is also confirmed by the fact that in December 2012Twitter signed an agreement with Nielsen to develop globalstandards for researching the phenomena of social TV. Mo-reover, in February 2013 Twitter acquired Bluefin Labs, a so-cial TV analytics company. With the increasing use of mobiledevices (smartphones and tablets), we can expect that thesocial TV phenomenon will continue to spread (as stated inNielsen reports, 70% of tablet users and 68% of smartphoneowners have declared that they use these devices whilewatching TV). Another issue is that in 2013, according to LGreports (cited during the Second Screen Experiences panelat the CES 2013), 6 out of 10 TV buyers will choose a smartTV. Another obstacle is the nomenclature - social TV, 2ndscreen, etc. – the respondents, including those in Poland,may not even be aware that they are, in fact, engaging inthis type of activity (see Figure 5, 6, 7).Figure 5Places where the content was uploaded during the EURO 2012 game between Poland and GreeceSource: Brand24Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 10. Trendbook 201310Figure 6Devices used to upload the content during the EURO 2012 game between Poland and GreeceAlthough the phenomenon of on-line commenting on what we see on TV is commonplace, we still remain very much“attached to the wire.” We comment mostly via our computers. With smartphones and tablets becoming more andmore ubiquitous though, we can expect a gradual departure from using a computer.Source: Brand24Figure 7TV and social media viewer ratings for the EURO 2012 game between Poland and RussiaWhat is striking is the fact that the social media activity doesn’t die down until about an hour after the game. It meansthat we turn the TV off, but are still commenting the event on social networking sites.Source: TV viewer ratings: AGB Nielsen Media Research for the 4+ group, based on the analysis provided by the Initiative me-dia house. The social media data: Brand24. The data is not comparable.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 11. Trendbook 201311Borys MusielakCEO of Filmaster.TVSocial TV in Poland is virtuallynon-existent. We could use suchplatforms as the UK’s Zeebox orsome integrated social elements inset-top boxes or applications of toptelevision and cable networks. Themanaging of a Facebook profileof a TV show, which is what mostcontent creators’ job boils down to,cannot be called “social TV.” Dueto its limitations, Facebook is not an ideal platform for thistype of activity anyway. For a genuinely social TV, we needthree ingredients:• a foolproof mechanism for content discovery (personali-sed recommendations),• a straightforward way of content sharing (social element),• integration with the first screen (i.e. TV).An ideal social TV application should therefore be able tofind us an interesting TV programme, make it possible forus to watch it, and then allow us to share the find with ourfriends (it is here where Facebook or Twitter comes intoplay as a distribution method). Such a platform, providedit is skillfully used by TV stations or cable television, can bea great new revenue generator thanks to such features ashighly personalised content and highly personalised adver-tising messages. Let’s imagine an iPad application which"collects" the ads viewed by the user and archives thosewhich are the most suited to his taste, creating a unique,custom-designed store with the most interesting sugge-stions. Shopping at this store would bring money to all linksin the chain: an advertiser, television (as a distributor), andapplication provider. This could be a win-win-win-win situ-ation, with a client as the fourth winner as we’ve just madehis life easier. And thats just one of the many methods ofhow to monetise the second screen applications.Cezary OtowskiCTO, VoodooDanceOur 2nd screen application, whichwe have prepared with TVP, worksin a very simple way. During a fo-otball match, a  player guesseswhat is going to happen in thenext 30 seconds, using a mobilephone application (Java, Android,iOS) or a computer (any website orFacebook). If he manages to pre-dict one of four possible options(goal, throw-in, foul, intercept), he is awarded points thatcount towards the ranking. Initially, the app was to be thekey element of the competition organized by TVP during theEuro 2012 Championship. Ultimately, however, the televisiondecided to go with the traditional SMS competition. Ourapplication was still used to test the functionality and way ofengaging the audience. The result was very positive - 27.6%of the players returned to play again during the followingEuro 2012 match; 19.7% played at least three games in a row;the average playing time (including the guessing time onlyand excluding the time of starting the app) was 51 minutes;the maximum playing time throughout the championshipwas 19.5 hours.What we prepared was not only a very impressive and en-gaging application, but the entire system with which youcan develop other configurable 2ndScreen apps. Along withTVP, we wanted to build on top of that and created anotherapplication: rules of the game were similar, but this timerelated to tennis and volleyball in the 2012 London Olym-pics. Unfortunately, we included the matches with Poles asparticipants, so the whole fun ended before it even began.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 12. Trendbook 201312„The future of social TV?It’s crystal ball gazing.”About potential of 2nd screen I talk with Miles Lewis, Vice President Advertising, ShazamNatalia Hatalska: What does social TV mean for you? Is itmore about commenting in social media what’s happeningon TV screen or is it more about using some special dedica-ted platform like Zeebox while watching TV?Miles Lewis: I think it really depends on the consumer, butalso on the content of the programme, and you can’t al-ways pigeonhole into one area. What we do know is thatconsumers are wanting to get involved, they are wantingto have more of a relationship both with the programmethey’re watching and the brands that they’re seeing. Theylike to comment, they like to get involved, and also they arevery willing to have an extended relationship. So if they’vebeen watching a 20-minute programme, they are desperatefor maybe a glimpse of what’s gonna happen next week -many producers understand this and use the second screenWhich predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 13. Trendbook 201313tokeep interest alive. And keeping the interest alive will keepthe viewing figures up. You know, from a brand point ofview, TV advertising is still very, very successful and key toreaching millions of consumers, but a 15- to 30-second TVspot is still unable to get the 100% cut-through that theyare wishing, so, extending that conversation onto, let’s say,a mobile device is a very, very cost-effective way of exten-ding that messaging as well to extend engagement. So, itdepends. It depends on what country, it depends on whatusers, and it depends on what is actually happening at thatmoment, with what content.NH: But during CES2013, this year in Vegas, on the panel Se-cond Screen Experiences some experts said that the mainproblem with the second screen now is that people aredoing something that is not related to the content theyare watching on TV. Do you perceive it in the same way, sothey are chatting on Facebook and Twitter and they are notengaging with the content?Miles: I suppose, ultimately, it varies, again, on who’s sayingwhat. We see an awful lot of our users who are engagingfurther with the content on the screen. Those who Shazamprogramming in the United States want more informationabout that programme that’s on the screen now. They wantto find out about the actors, they want to find out aboutthe products. They want to have more of an engagement.So it depends. We see many, many different usages, andsometimes that’s an ability where someone will tag a pro-gramme or an ad and then involve themselves 24 hourslater. It happens because they don’t want to stop watchingthe programme, and they do want further engagement, sothey’ll tag, and they’ll use it later on. So, yes and no. Again,I don’t think there is a right or wrong answer here, I think itdepends on the consumer and their state of mind.NH: Well, you’ve mentioned something very interesting,tagging TV shows. Is it popular in the United States or inthe United Kingdom?Miles: Our product has been launched in the United Statesand we have run one pilot programme here in the UK, butit’s popular. Yes, right now , millions of people are doing this.There is desire for more information and for engaging in thatadditional information in a time that is convenient for them,because consumers run mission control. It’s “I want moreinformation about (US TV Show) Being Human, but I wantto access that information on my commute in the morning.”NH: I remember that Shazam was founded in the UnitedStates but then they had to settle down in London becausemobile phones usage was not so popular in the United Sta-tes at that time, and my question is: how is it now? Whereare your revenues mainly from: Europe or the United States?Miles: Well, obviously, in terms of being a private company,I can’t quite divulge where revenues come from specifically,but actually we have 300 million users, we drive a 300 mil-lion dollars’ worth of music sales a year globally, becauseour core usage is still disco-vering and finding music.There’s also an in-app ad-vertising module, so glo-bally we put advertisingmarketing messages insidethe app, and we sell thoseon a  country-by-countrybasis. But Shazam for TVis a very large and rapidlygrowing revenue stream aswell. So there’s 3 pillars thatare obvious ones.Rica: If I could just add tothat really quickly, we wereactually founded here inLondon because the mo-bile market was more mature than it was in the UnitedStates with how people used mobile, how they had alre-ady integrated it into their daily lives was a little bit moreadvanced.NH: You said Shazam for TV is a very large revenue stream,and on CES I heard that you were already running more than200 advertising campaigns on the second screen. Could youtell me more about them?Miles: That figure is 200 plus campaigns we’ve run for ma-jor brands on the Shazam for TV platform. I think the mostcritical part here is that it’s not a separate app. The app thatconsumers use to engage with branded TV advertising thathas the Shazam call-to-action on is exactly the same app youuse for discovering music. And that’s the beauty of it. There’sno need to download a new app. So we work with hundredsof the world’s great forward-thinking brands, whether it’sfrom a financial service industry, through motor companies,to FMCGs, film and entertainment, and we work with a lot ofTV advertising is stillvery successful and keyto reaching millionsof consumers, buta 30-second TV spotis still unable to get the100% cut-through thatthey are wishing,so extending thatconversation ontoa mobile device is a verycost-effective wayof extending thatmessaging as wellto extend engagement.Which prediction for 2012 have come true?
  • 14. Trendbook 201314companies around the world. But from an American pointof view, in North America, that has really been in existencefor two years, to here which it’s been running for a year,to Australia, where it’s been running for three months. Wehave a lot of experience working in the second screen world.NH: So do you think that Shazam or other second-screenapps have the real potential to expand TV advertising?Miles: Absolutely. Let me give you an example. Here in theUnited Kingdom, 4.7 billion ads are seen every single day onTV. That’s 4.7 billion. So if you’re an advertiser, how on earthdo you get cut-through? How on earth do you make surethat your ad is remembered? And in this day and age, whenin the ad breaks it’s well known that Tweets and Facebookposts go out because they’re there, and everyone can seethem, actually adding a Shazam enablement to TV adver-tising on a call out, saying “Shazam now for the full movietrailer” or “Shazam now for a test drive” or “Shazam nowfor a free product”, is a way to get that instant gratificationof a consumer. And this is also a fantastic way of extendinga 15-, 30-, 45-, or 60-second TV ad to over a three-and-a-halfminutes of engagement which is on average what we get.Rica: One of the of the things that we did last year was an adcampaign with Sony Entertainment for Men in Black, andfor a number of their movies, so that people in the UnitedStates when they used Shazam to tag the ad, they couldfind out what local theatres were showing Men in Black.They could use the app, tag the ad, and then it would comeup with “Okay this movie is showing in these four theatresclose to you, you can buy the tickets for it”, and so it’s allvery, very simple, so all you had to do is just show up, youdidn’t even have to stand in line, you could go and pick upyour tickets and just walk on through. So it makes this typeof transactions very, very simple and the fact that you havethings like geolocation, you know, you don’t have to say“okay, I live in London, I live south of London, I live westof London,” you don’t have to dig in further and further,entering your post code, because it knows where you are.NH: Well, that’s really great example. Can you give me somemore?Miles: Of course, we’ve obviously mentioned films becausethat’s the big category for us, but we’ve had drinks, we’vehad Diageo running with Smirnoff. We’ve had Lynx witha great campaign running here in the UK, that allowed you toShazam ad for a chance to win a trip to space. We’ve workedwith every single category and the most important part ofit is “why would I, as a consumer, want to Shazam this TVad?” And that’s how we work with the creative agencies aswell as media to come up with a very compelling idea, andthe earlier we get involved, the better. Because if a brand isgonna spend X millions of euros on shooting and producinga great TV ad, there has to be a payback from that, and theyhave to understand what they want consumers do after it.We can really add to that and amplify it.NH: So are advertisers happy with the results of the campa-igns? You know that it gave them some outcome. Or maybethey just testing it as a new form of advertising?Miles: I  think the biggestbarometer for success iswhether a client comes backand renews, and it’s very,very simple to look at oneadvertiser and say “yeah,we’ve run that, we’re nottoo sure”. But our renewalrate is strong, we’re runningone campaign in Germanywhere we’re already on our third campaign, we have twoclients in Australia now on their second campaign, so this isnow becoming a behaviour, and that is really critical.NH: You said that the beauty of Shazam is that you can tagads with the same app you tag music. And my questionis as following. The producers believed that dedicated se-cond screen services like, Get Glue for example, will be themost popular. But it turned out that people prefer to use themedia they know. So now they use Twitter mainly as thirsecond screen social service. Do you think this is the case?That while using second screen, you want to use apps thatyou know, and that you used before?Miles: Yes and no. There’s always an element of there beingusers who will want to get involved with Get Glue becauseit’s got a product feature they like or Zeebox because it’s gota product feature they like. But the fundamentals are thatit’s about scale and we’re still human beings and we stillhave a certain amount of space in our heads to rememberto use certain apps. So if you look at all of the apps avai-lable for programming, for separate stations, whether thatstation is iTV here in the UK or NBC, whatever it is, and thenprogrammes related to programming, suddenly you canhave over 1,500 apps on your iPhone to engage with thiscontent. That becomes itself a problem. So, actually, whereShazam’s brilliance lies is that it’s already used ten millionWhat is a “known known”is that this is the very startof this real shift. Whereit’ll change and where it’llshift – just no one knows.But what we do knowis that consumers wantsimplicity.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 15. Trendbook 201315times a day and actually to make someone have saved time“Oh I can now interact with programming and advertising,fantastic, I haven’t got to download another app.” But, youknow, that’s the easy part. There will be people who wantto use another apps, but the fundamentals are that we getthat huge cut-through and it makes it very, very simple forconsumers, and consumers know and like simplicity.NH: So you mean that the main drivers of social TV are notonly technological but also psychological? And the secondquestion is – has it already reached a tipping point? In yourcountry for example?Miles: Again, I think it’s a combination of so many differentfactors, but we know that music in the programming candrive Shazam usage. For example the Closing Ceremonyof the London Olympics had a track by Kate Bush in it,and Kate Bush has been around for a long time, but there’sa whole generation of people who didn’t know what thetrack was, and we saw the most amazing amount of tags,people finding out via Shazam what that music was. So youcould say that’s social TV, because something is runningon the TV, I’m gonna find out what that music is and shareit with my friends. And ultimately that’s a big, big driverof usage. At the same time people are tweeting, putting iton Facebook to talk about what they’re watching. So yes,there’s definitely a tipping point arriving. The question morethan anything else is a whole sway of the population whoaren’t necessarily wanting to get involved in all program-ming. Some programmes lean back, some programmeslean forward. Ultimately, there’s a lot of area where Shazamcan cut through all this to tell you what the music is, to tellyou more information about the brand, to tell you moreinformation about the products. That all comes down towhat the hook is and why someone would get involved inthe first place.NH: So what’s the future of social TV? How do you think itwill look in near future?Miles: It’s crystal ball gazing. What is a “known known”is that this is the very, very start of this real shift. Whereit’ll change and where it’ll shift – just no one knows, butwhat we do know and what is a fact is that consumerswant simplicity, they don’t need complex, because theyhave so much going on in their lives. Google has comeout recently and said we pick up our phones one hun-dred fifty times a day. That’s a huge amount of checkingour phone, so if you have some content on there, youcan fill a two-minute gap in your day while you’re wai-ting for your train, that is a great scenario for us becausethose two minutes could be filled with some content.NH: And what about the privacy? For example, we can easilyimagine situation that we exactly know what the consumeris watching in the third second of the show.Miles: Yes, I think from Shazam’s perspective, we are incre-dibly aware of privacy and we are very, very protective ofour users’ identity, so all of the information we have is basedon pure tag data and that is “someone, somewhere, today,in London has tagged a song”. We don’t know who it is, oranything about them, and neither will we ever, ever, everwant to find out. Because that’s privacy, you know, and theultimate part of this is we have a very generalized data aboutour demographic brake down. No personal information ispassed anywhere, so I think it’s incredibly important, andespecially with the rise of more and more information aboutconsumers that is out there, we have to be very, very carefuland thus we are absolutely adamant that our consumersremain very anonymous.NH: Thank you.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 16. Trendbook 201316App overloadDefinitely one of the major trends – visible in Poland inso-far as allowed by smartphone penetration (according toTNS, it’s around 25%). Still, the numbers are awe-inspiring.As estimated by Antyweb, Polish users downloaded a to-tal of more than 40 million apps last October alone (iOS,Android, Windows). It should be added that users of thesethree particular systems differ from one another. As statedin the Isobar Mobile Polska report (there were two waves ofthe study: in 2010 and 2012; the data refer to Poland), Appleowners are the most active app downloaders (76% surf theInternet and 36% have downloaded an app), followed byAndroid users (63% - the Internet, 22% - applications) andthe users of mobile Windows versions (69% - the Internet,16% - applications). Poles are most eager to use those appsthat allow them to extend a mobile phone’s communica-tion functions. That includes instant messengers (44%) andsocial networking sites (41%), but also utility applicationswhich facilitate everyday activities (41%). In the context ofthis trend, it is worth quoting a catchphrase popular in theWest, "for mobile devices think apps, not ads."An interesting example demonstrating this trend is DonationBox - a project developed last year by students at MiamiAd School. The concept is based on the premise that a user“drops” the apps he no longer uses into a special applica-tion - Donation Box. Next, the developer of these apps (e.g.Apple) donates their value to charity (see video).The industry crossword puzzle – an interesting initiative using QR codes, developed by JWT PolandThe Fiat Street Evo campaign using the visual search technology.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 17. Trendbook 201317Point&Know, Point&BuyA few days after I published TrendBook 2012, featuring suchtechnologies as Vuzix Smart Glasses and briefly mentioningGoogle Glass, Google set its project in motion. They werethe ones to largely dominate the 2012 Point&Know trend,at least media-wise. On the other hand, practice shows thatQR codes are still quite popular. Last year, we had a virtuallyinfinite number of such campaigns both in the West andin Poland. One of the most interesting projects was ProjektIngeborg in the Austrian city of Klagenfurt. As part of it, QRcodes were scattered throughout Klagenfurt in 120 loca-tions, and you could use them to download books or music.Worthwhile Polish QR projects include the campaign of Piotri Paweł (transl. note: Polish food store chain), developed inco-operation with AMS, during which the inhabitants ofPoznań could shop directly from bus stops (more on thecampaign in Błażej Patryna’s commentary – see p. 18). Whenit comes to visual search, however, it is definitely a techno-logy that has not yet reached a milestone. It has appearedin two campaigns which particularly drew my attention.One was made ​​by Adidas in Germany, where you couldbuy clothes directly from the store’s window by dragging--and-dropping items to your phone (without scanning thecode – see the movie) and the second one was the FiatStreet Evo campaign, where various pieces of informationon the Evo model were "hidden" in road signs.Project Ingeborg in the city of Klagenfurt in Austria. The QR codes located in 120 places all over the city contained books and music files.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 18. Trendbook 201318Monika MikowskaManaging Partner atmobee dick, author of theblog jestem.mobiThe phenomenon of app over-load did not end with the adventof 2013 – it is still with us. There isboth supply and demand for mo-bile apps. In fact, this demand wasat an all-time high last year. In ad-dition to the numbers mentionedby Natalia, it is worth recallingApples official press release from two months ago con-firming that there are 775,000 applications available in theApp Store, which have been downloaded 40 billion times,with 20 billion in 2012 alone. It is predicted that in 2013 thisrecord will be beaten. In Poland, smartphone penetration isgetting bigger and bigger month by month, and Polish users’awareness of what these devices can do is growing too,although much slower. Well-chosen mobile apps are a greatway to expand this awareness. They are the tools which areeliminating an increasing number of everyday objects fromour environment (from such obvious examples as an alarmclock, notepad, music player, torch, to more unusual - carkeys, TV or computer remote control, cartoons for children,payment card, scanner, heart rate monitor, etc.). That is whyboth developers and marketers feel motivated to produceeven more of them. 2013 will bring many new technologieswhose production got underway last year. Nevertheless,I would like to emphasise two things. Firstly, brands cannottreat mobile applications as a new advertising format. Whilewe are eager to download applications of practical value,we are rather reluctant to do the same with advertising orsponsored apps. Secondly, we should remember that the"mobile web" provides a wider range than "mobile apps."Analysing the experiences of Polish companies which offerboth a mobile-optimised website and a mobile app, weknow that the monthly number of unique users accessinga mobile website is higher than the total number of peo-ple who have downloaded the application. Just as the year2012 was marked by a boom in mobile apps, so should 2013be marked by a burgeoning fashion for making websitesmobile-app-friendly.Błażej PatrynInternet Sales Executive,Piotr i PawełIn late 2012, we made the first cam-paign in Poland which allowedusers to do their shopping directlyfrom the street. It was labelledUwolnij Czas. Przygotuj Telefon naRewolucję (Free Your Time. Prepareyour Phone for a Revolution). It wasa joint research project of the Insti-tute of Logistics and Warehousing (ILiM), the Piotr i Pawełchain store, the KIP SA Transferuj.pl payment integrator,and the firm AMS SA. By the end of November, the citizensof Poznań and its surroundings could use smartphones, QRcodes, and the mobile application RockPay to buy productsin the "here and now" mode. Our data shows that people’sawareness of on-line grocery shopping is still at a relativelylow level, although it is on a visible upward trend. Onlya small group of people knows about the possibility of do-ing their grocery shopping with the use of a mobile phone.The goal we wanted to achieve was, most of all, buildingawareness of mobile shopping and presenting the oppor-tunities offered by mobile technologies. Another objectiveof the mKonsument project was to demonstrate that thissort of shopping is incredibly easy, fast, convenient, and,most importantly, safe. A key role in the project belongs toRockPay app. It allows a user to compile his shopping listand go through the entire payment process on his smartp-hone. The conclusions which we were able to draw afterthe campaign show that the visibility and role of QR codesin marketing communications is on the rise. This is alsoconfirmed by the relative results on the number of scansas compared to the number of available locations with co-des. Smartphone users still treat these devices primarily asa tool for communication and experimentation. In order forthe mobile ways of shopping and making payments in the"here and now" to become a well-established habit of Polishconsumers, we still have a lot of awareness-building to do.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 19. Trendbook 201319Our body as the controllerIn Trendbook 2012, I focused on the voice, gesture, and touchcontrol, but the reality turned out to be faster than predic-ted. Already last year, we could observe the increasing useof the technology that allows us to interact with a deviceusing the mind as the only controlling tool. The examplescan be seen today not only in the medical industry (mo-ving an artificial arm/leg lub a completely paralysed personcommunicating with a computer), but also in films, videogames, childrens toys, etc. Nowadays, it would be hard tograsp that a screen of any device is not a touch screen. Thestrength of this trend is additionally emphasised by the lastyears premiere of the touchscreen-adapted Windows 8system. By the way, I recommend the report published in2012 by the IAB Polska: Przyszłość Internetu jest dotykowa(Touch is the Internet’s future).Reliability of the trends predicted for 2012Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 20. Trendbook 201320„There are some things that we careabout that havent changed over themillennia.”Talking with Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow, Director, Interaction and Experience Research, Intel who is named one 100 MostCreative People in Business, inducted into the Women In Technology International (WITI) Hall of Fame and honored bythe Anita Borg Institute as the 2013 Woman of Vision for Leadership.Natalia Hatalska: Last month, I had a presentation abouthow women use technology, and during this presenta-tion I was citing your research that there are some areaswhere women adapt technology faster than men and I wascalled sexist because of that. Why is there such a strongstereotype that only men use technology and women areonly interested in cooking, fashion and children?Genevieve Bell: The thing about all sorts of technology isthat its adoption is dependent on what the technology is,Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 21. Trendbook 201321where it appeared, what it did, and who the population ofadopters is. We know in some places technology is adoptedby young people and in other places by people who canafford it. For example, looking at the introduction of cars,the first people that owned cars were people in their fortiesand fifties because they were the ones who had money.The first time mobile phones hit ubiquity in Japan, theywere being adopted both by men in the workforce as wellas teenagers. Different technologies have different appealand have different barriers too, so sometimes they requirea lot of time to set them up, they may require the kind ofnetwork connection that isnt available to everyone, theymay require money, and lots of different things. We knowthat the arc of technology adoption had looked differentlyover time, but there are some things that are constant. Mosttechnology that comes into the home, for instance, womenare the ones who “tame” it. They make it domestic andsafe. Although women didnt invent electricity, they werecertainly the ones who worked out how to cook on it, howto clean with it, how to make clothes presentable. If youlook at my colleagues in places like British Telecom, whenthey were studying the introduction of the telephone, itwas women who answered the phone, it was women whomade the vocal phone calls to check up on relatives andfamily, and do all of that kind of thing. Weve seen in morerecent years that different technologies have had differentadoption too. Most e-readers, for instance, are owned bywomen, not men. Now, does that mean men are illiterate?No, but women use books as a way of relaxing, it also fitsinto a lifestyle that is in some ways overcommitted andtime-poor.NH: You said that the adoption of technology is dependenton different factors, such as the cost of this technology, forexample. Are there any specific psychological factors thatare driving the technology adoption?Genevieve: Some technologies get adopted because theyaddress pain points so they make our life easier, and so-metimes its because were told they make our life easier.Washing machines, refrigeration, those were technologiesthat we were told would make less washing and better food.Some people adopted them very quickly because they hadmoney or because they were in some way seduced by thosepromises. Other people took longer. I dont think theresa consistent personality type that says youll always be anearlier adopter of technology, and Im not sure theres a con-sistent kind of population of people who are lagging. Thereare certainly some technologies that I think, over time, pe-ople worry about more, but worries change too. My greatgrandmothers generationin Australia are the oneswho were young whenelectricity was introduced,and they were very frighte-ned of it since it was a scarything – it made noises, itthreatened to electrocutethem. It wasn’t stable andcontrollable in the ways the previous technology had been,but by the time my great grandmother died when she wasin her nineties, electricity was just part of her life, so I thinkit also changes over a course of a lifetime. Technology youwere frightened of when you were a kid - you may not eventhink twice about it as a grown-up.NH: ’ll come back to those fears and worries of technologylater on, and now I’d like to talk about ourselves as an aginggeneration. Certainly, the elderly use technology totally dif-ferently than young people. So how should we design thistechnology for our future selves? What it should look like?Genevieve: Its a good question. There are a couple of thingsto remember. My parents generation, people that were bornduring World War II or right before/ after it, people in theirsixties, seventies and eighties – you have to remember thatthis generation saw the adoption of mass-produced cars,television, VCRs, microwave ovens, mobile phones. Many ofthem were in their peak years in their jobs and their careers,and some of those technologies really took off. So someof them were actually grown ups when the technologiesthat were quite spectacularly life-changing appeared. So, insome ways, that cohort that we think of now as being oldwere actually incredibly kind of experimental in terms oftheir relationship to and with technology. It changed theirworkplaces, it was often part of their lives, it was certainlythings they gave to their kids. In some ways, thats not surpri-sing when you look at what that cohort is doing, particularlyin the days of the Internet. In the U.S. or Western Europe,people in their sixties and seventies are the fastest-growinggroup on Facebook and social networking sites. In the U.S,people in their fifties and sixties are the fastest-growinggroup on on-line dating sites. Because they’ve got emptynests, they’ve changed their relationships, theyve left theirpartners, theyve broken out of marriages, theyre out datingagain. I was just reading some data the other day that pe-ople in their forties and fifties are more likely to be sendingsex-texts, so sexting, than people in their twenties. I thinkwe sometimes sort of imagine “Oh, that cohort, theyreold ...theyre not doing very much,” but the reality is mostThe thing about all sortsof technology is that itsadoption is dependenton what the technologyis, where it appeared,what it did, and who thepopulation of adopters is.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 22. Trendbook 201322cohorts that have gotten older are quite exposed to a lot ofnew technologies and have carried some of that desire to beinvolved in technology with them as they moved forward.We need to be very careful about not assuming that justbecause youre not a twenty-something means you dontuse technology. And I want to push against that stereotypeall the time.NH: Let’s talk about twenty-somethings then. In one of yourprevious interviews, you said that young people use techno-logy differently when their parents pay for it, and its totallydifferent when they have to pay by themselves. Can youcomment more on that?Genevieve: Sure, I don’t know what its like in Poland, butwe had been doing work at that point which was in the U.S.,Australia, and a couple of other places. When kids werestill living at home, their parents were paying their mobilephone bills, providing the Internet to the house and so on.What we found was that when people started to have to paytheir own bills, to pay for their mobile phones, data plans,Internet, they changed their usage behaviors. And thats notsurprising. We know that what you do when youre newlymarried is different than what you do when youre single.And what is fascinating for me is that we sometimes sortof suggest that there are these generations and then wetalk about Baby Boomers, Gen Y, Gen X, Millennials. I thinkthose are powerful ideas, but its also very clear to me thatit is where you are in the stage of your life that seems toimpact the decisions you make. A new parent whos 25 hasa lot in common with a new parent whos forty. So, thatkind of notion we have that the youth of today is usingeverything all the time was a bit like saying when someonegoes to a restaurant with a buffet, they eat everything, andthen when they have to pay for plates, they eat less. In someway, it was pretty obvious, but it was fascinating when wesaw it happening.NH: I remember you also said that there is not one Internet,that there are lots of different Internets which adapt toplatforms they use.Genevieve: Absolutely.NH: But its not a very popular notion of the Internet. Werather tend to think about it as of something similar to elec-tricity. Something that is the same, that surrounds us.Genevieve: But even electricity is different in different co-untries. Different voltage, different plugs, different paymentsystems, different ideas about who should provide it andwho should look after it and regulate it. The Internet is notdissimilar. How the Internet is provisioned in the UnitedStates is very different than in Australia or the UK. Everythingfrom who are the service providers, is there a standard forthe network traffic or speed, is there a standard for dow-nload speed versus upload speed, is there a requirementfor parity, can you moveanything on the Internetor there are some sitesavailable and unavailableto you. We know that theInternet is not a seamlesswhole, where no matterwhere you are on the planet you would feel the same thingsin exactly the same way. And we know that what the Inter-net looks like and feels like on a mobile phone is probablyvery different than on a laptop. Partly because of architec-ture of information, partly because of the bandwidth, partlybecause of network availability, partly because we knowpeople do different things on each one of those platforms.My argument historically has been that different platformsare animated by the Internet. When the Internet arrived onmobile phones, a couple of things became clear very quickly:number one was that having the entire of the Internet ona mobile phone wasnt how people used it. Apps were whatthey wanted, they wanted a particular thing – “tell me whatrestaurant is near me,” or “tell me how to get to the tubestation.” It was very specific to where they were.NH: And what about the Internet of things? How will itchange our experience?Genevieve: I think were going to find out. Part of it is goingto be that were going to regard things differently whentheyre connected. If youre used to a street, a traffic lightjust being a traffic light, and now its connected to a networkof other traffic lights and it knows how the traffic patternis working and goes green faster or stays red longer, wellexperience the road and driving in a very different way.NH: Some people even believe that we wont need trafficlights anymore because all the machines will be commu-nicating with each other.Genevieve: I think well always need traffic lights, not allcars will ever gonna be connected. Although when we thinkabout smart cars in future, we can imagine that cars will talkto each other, not drivers, and that the cars will actually begossiping about us, "shes a terrible driver, keep away fromWe need to be very carefulabout not assuming thatjust because youre nota twenty-something meansyou dont use technology.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 23. Trendbook 201323her.” But I think rather than this, it’s the case that wevenever had world with a single Internet, it has always beenlots of Internets.NH: Let’s dwell on the notion of cars chatting with them-selves for a little longer. Ray Kurzweil predicted that before2030 computers’ reasoning will be the same as humans’.We can imagine that we will have widespread robots thatwill be doing all the work for us, and that well have timefor resting, reading, or just for being bored. We should behappy about it. However, instead of being happy, we areextremely frightened. Why is it so?Genevieve: I think one of our anxieties about new techno-logy is precisely that we know – from the history of tech-nology – that it changes things. For many people, change isa scary thing. It means that what was once stable and knownmay become unstable. For lots of people, that moment offlux is hard to handle. When technology threatens to changea couple of things, I think we get very frightened. When itthreatens our ideas about time and space, so electricitymakes nights into days, trains that let us go hundreds ofmiles in a very short amount of time, it changes the waywe think about the world and I think those technologiesprovoke anxiety because those are hard, conceptual chan-ges to make. Ultimately, I think what its really about thoughis that a lot of new technologies make us have to think aboutwhat makes us distinctive. So, you mentioned singularity,I think one of the things people find very provoking andconfrontational about Ray Kurzweil is that they listen to himand they hear him saying, “computers will replace peoplebecause will be able to replace the human brain.” I think fora lot of people, that notion is really scary.NH: Isn’t it a very similar situation to the one we had at theend of the 18th century when the Luddites were really afraidof the technology and machines they had in their factories?Genevieve: Yes, it is. I was giving the talk just this morningabout where our fear comes from. One of the things I wasarguing was that that period - the Luddites in England 200years ago - and the notion of machines replacing us, alongwith the fear which that generated, has never gone away. Ithas these echoes that run through to the present day. Whiletwo hundred years ago what machinery threatened to dowas replace our labour, and that was hugely important, nowit threatens to replace our thinking, which is also really scary.What makes us different than everything else on the planet?It is our ability to reason, its our cognitive power, and if youcan outsource that to a machine, the question ultimatelybecomes - what are we worth? I think that sort of threat ofvalue is partly where the fear comes from.NH: Is this threat justified?Genevieve: All fears are ultimately both rational and irra-tional. In the same way, you could say - is it reasonableto say "technology is allgood," "technology willmake us better people,more efficient, itll be fa-bulous?" Thats the storywe inevitably tell abouttechnology. The other storywe tell about is that it willchange everything and thatit might be bad. I think allnew technology is accom-panied by both of thosestories, by a kind of "eve-rything will be better" and"everything will be worse."And both of those storiesare true and both of thosestories are false. All at thesame time. Because thereare certainly ways techno-logy hasnt been good forus. We dont have enoughtime to be bored, we have a sense of being overwhelmed, wehave a sense of having many demands on our time and ourbrains, and there are ways its been really good because wecan now do things we couldn’t have possibly done twentyyears ago. I think we have to allow that modern technologycomes with both of those things, with both fear and won-der. The story is not really complete without both of thosepieces, and they are both partially true and partially false.NH: What we can observe now is the so-called counter trend– that people consciously stop using technology for a periodof time. Do you think it will change from a micro trend intoa bigger trend in the future?Genevieve: I think the adoption of new technologies gothrough a cycle. Theres a period very early, when its allutopian and wonderful, “Oh my God, everyone should haveit, YAY!!! We can all be fabulous,” that is immediately fol-lowed by a period when we go "oh-oh, this is really bad,”and its kind of a horror story. Then, we emerge out of thatperiod and it becomes clear where the technology stabilisedThe adoption of newtechnologies go througha cycle. Theres a periodvery early, when its allutopian and wonderfulthat is immediatelyfollowed by a periodwhen we go "oh-oh, thisis really bad". Then, weemerge out of that periodand it becomes clear wherethe technology stabilisedand was used forwardthrough both a kind ofoverblown hype and theoverblown negativity, andwe land up on somethingstable.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 24. Trendbook 201324and was used forward through both a kind of overblownhype and the overblown negativity, and we land up on so-mething stable. But that takes a while for technologies tosettle out through countries and cultures and householdsand communities and decide what the right level is. I thinkone of the challenges at the moment is that we feel likeweve had this technology for twenty years. The reality isin most places it’s less than ten, and the reality is that formost of the average human beings its not even that. Andif you look historically, it takes easily a decade, or even twoor three before we stabilise in our reactions to the use ofnew technology. The introduction of television took a reallylong time and were arguing about it now, its like fifty yearson - is television good or bad for us, how much television,how far and where should I sit in front of it, should I putmy kids in front of it and leave them there. And It doesntsurprise me that we’re now going through this period ofquestioning the value of some of these new technologies,because it came with such utopic and enthusiastic stories;were in the natural period of asking questions about whatwas overblown promises. We know that historically, wellemerge from this kind of backlash against some of thesetechnologies at a different point. Whats much more intere-sting to me is the appearance of apps that start to questionthe notion of permanence in the digital realm, for things likeSnapchat. All of those are about creating appearances ofdigital technology that are totally transitory, that will comeand go rather than exist forever. I think what will becomevery interesting as when we move through this period iswhere do we end up when were done.NH: So what will our future look like? We can see our futurein science fiction movies, and none of them is optimistic.Genevieve: Happy science fiction doesnt sell. People dontwant to see a happy future, that doesnt make good movies.So, I think what is much more likely that science fiction tellsus is that its a safe place in some way for us to play at ourfears. It is rarely a place where we play at our hopes.NH: Do you think theres a happy future then?Genevieve: I believe in a realistic future. The future will al-ways be a complicated mix of good things and bad things.History tells us that. Some of the technology will be splendidand some will have unintended, not-so-happy consequen-ces. So, to me, Im not sure I believe in a utopic or a dystopicfuture. I think you have to have both stories. One of thechallenges, mostly about the language of the future taughtto us by science fiction, is fear.NH: You are an anthropologist, and theres also Amber Case,who calls herself a cyborg anthropologist. She believes thatwe are compounded with our smartphones, our tablets,and all the technology, and so we have already becomecyborgs. Do you also believe that we are some kind of transhumans now?Genevieve: I believe in lessthan she does. I know whyshe makes that case, butI  think what it means tobe human is more compli-cated than that. We havealways been, as human be-ings, a complicated mix ofthe physical and the virtual. We have had physical bodies,we have had physical objects in our hands. But we believedin things we couldnt see. And we told ourselves stories toexplain the world around us that were about the virtual.We had gods, we had worlds that were animated by spirits,we imagined relationships with nature, with gods, and witheach other that werent about what we could physically see.I think humans have always had a strong relationship to the“virtual,” today the virtual means something different thanit did two hundred years ago, and I think we have alwaysaugmented ourselves with things. I grew up in Australiawith aboriginal people who had a spear in their hands andwho augmented their bodies and their physical selves withobjects. Three hundred years ago, the men who were theknights of the realm had swords and horses, which were theextensions of themselves. Now that augmentation happensin the digital world. We are augmented by our Facebookprofiles and were also augmented in the physical world byour mobile phones. Do I think the balance of that makes usmore cyborg than human? No, and Im not sure it ever will.NH: So what you mean is that we are the same humans likehundreds years ago, but the times have changed?Genevieve: Yes, I think what human beings care about chan-ges incredibly slowly. There are some things that we careabout as people that havent changed over the millennia.And no amount of new technology will change that. It pro-bably makes me very old-fashioned to say that.NH: I don’t think so. I feel the same way and I wanted tohear that.Genevieve: I think its really easy, to tell you in the field weall live in, to be seduced by the speed of technology and toThere are some things thatwe care about as peoplethat havent changed overthe millennia. And noamount of new technologywill change that.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 25. Trendbook 201325feel like everything is changing all the time. I think its reallyimportant to remember that there are things that humanbeings do and have done for a really long time. They havebeen part of families and communities; they have wanted tobe surrounded by people who share their values; they havewanted to believe in things that were bigger than themsel-ves; they have used stuff and objects to talk about who theywere to other people and themselves. Those things - theydont change. Those things are incredibly deeply rooted inour cultures and our societies. Arguably, theres a reasonwhy some technologies have failed. I think its not that theywere unnecessarily poorly engineered, but its that theydidn’t do things we care about.NH: Maybe this fear is, as you said, driven culturally. Forexample, in Japan or Korea theyve adopted technologyreally fast. I think they are not as afraid of it as we are herein Europe.Genevieve: I think thats absolutely true. The history of Ja-pan is full of the introduction of very similar technologiesthat we used to introduce in Europe, with a very differentreaction. I think thats partly about different notions andabout what makes people people, about what is the na-ture of humanity, and what is the kind of human condition.I think its very much about what happened in WesternEurope after the reformation. Starting in the 1500s onwards,theres a very strong idea in the West that I think thereforeI am, cognition equals humanity, the ability to think andreason is what makes us people. In Japan and Korea, thereare very different ideas about what makes human beingshuman. And so the technology is part and parcel and theextension of humanity, not a challenge to it. The idea thatyou have robots taking care of you doesnt mean anythingthan robots taking care of you. So theres a very differentkind of arc of adoption. I even think inside Europe thereare different anxieties. I think theres a very particular rea-ction to privacy and big data in places like Germany, whichhas such a particular history with that. But they look verydifferently than they do in France. Different cultures pro-duce different fears. And theyre partly based on our history,which makes sense.NH: Thank you.Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 26. Trendbook 201326Internetof Things- on the Internet, nobody knows you’rea.. washing machineThere used to be an image circulating the web once that some speakers still use intheir presentations at IT conferences. It shows a dog sitting in front of a computerand a caption "On the Internet, nobody knows youre a dog". Today, this symbolicdog should be replaced by an equally symbolic washing machine.
  • 27. Trendbook 201327About the trendEvery year for three years now, we’ve been hearing thatthis year is the year of the mobile. Every year, however, thisforecast fails to come true. And to be honest – it is unlikelyto ever come true because, since 2010, we’ve been dealingwith the so-called third wave of the Internet – the Internet ofThings (IoT, Internet of things, Internet of objects)1.The result isthat what we have nowadays is the era of the post-mobile.There is not one definition of the Internet of Things, but itmost often goes like this – it is a network of physical objects(things) which, thanks to their embedded sensors and Inter-net access, can communicate both with a human being andamong themselves. In practice, it means nothing else thanthe fact that virtually anything today can be connected tothe Internet, making it really intelligent (it has access to in-formation and databases, which it can analyse in real time).What is also important in the case of the Internet of Thingsis that Internet access makes it possible for devices to com-municate with themselves independently, without humanintervention (see the video The Social Web of Things).We can imagine a situation in which electronic productcodes (EPCs) will make the products that shouldn’t be keptclose to each other (e.g. flammables) automatically start analarm when this rule gets broken.The scale of the trend is huge. It is estimated that by 2020,the world will have produ-ced 50 billion connected de-vices, which means aroundseven such devices for oneperson. By that time, thevalue of the connected de-vices market is predicted toamount to $14 trillion (Ciscodata, March 2013). As stated in the Forrester research Buil-ding Value from Visibility (October 2012), more than half ofenterprises plan to implement IoT solutions over the courseof the next two years (see Figure 8).Diagram 1The evolution of things with Internet access. From a computer to a thing.Key wordsinternet of objects,internet of things,IOT (internet of things),M2M (machine-to-machine network)1. The term Internet of Things was first used in 1999. Since 2010, the phenomenon of IoT has been growing in significance, although it has been moreof a micro trend for the past three years. 2013 is predicted to be a landmark year for IoT.desktop computer mobile devicee.g. a smartphoneor a tabletdedicated devicee.g. Nike Fuelbandconnected objecti.e. any physical object connectedto the Internet, e.g. a light bulb, socks,travel bag, packet of pills, etc.Internet of Things
  • 28. Trendbook 201328Accompanying trends:nomophobia (no mobile phone phobia) – the fear of beingout of mobile phone range or of having your mobile runningout of battery;access over ownership – an increased need to have an accessto something rather than to own itReasons behind the trendFirst of all – technological factors, including an incrediblyfast development of software solutions and the solutionswhich make it possible to analyse data in real time; the de-velopment and miniaturisation of hardware technology(GPS, RFID chips, other devices which register status); andthe ability to store/convert data in the cloud.Second of all – psychological factors. A modern consumerexpects constant access to the Internet and information nomatter the place and time. Due to his permanent lack oftime, he wants solutions which are intelligent and practical.Examples of the trendThe examples are virtually countless and can be found inall industries. My personal favourites are: BlackSocks – thesocks with an embedded RFID chip which makes the pairing--up process easier (say ‘no more’ to losing your socks in thewashing machine :-)), hop! suitcase – you don’t have to dragit yourself as it stays in constant contact with your phoneand follows you by itself, and finally botanicalls – a specialsensor placed in flowers which sends us a text message ortweets us whenever the plant needs watering.One of the categories which is adapting the IoT trend particularly fast is the so-called smart home. It’s not only about connected refrigerators,washing machines, or dishwashers, but other objects too, e.g. bathroom scales (see the picture above: the Withings scales which monitors ourweight loss) or light bulbs.Figure 8More than half of companies plan to implement IoT solutions during the next 2 years.Source: Building Value from Visibility, 2012 Enterprise Internet of Things Adoption Outlook, Forrester Research, October 2012we plan to implement IoT solutions in the next 12 monthswe plan to implement IoT solutions in the next 2 yearswe have already implemented IoT solutionswe plan to implement IoT solutions in the next 2-5 yearswe don’t knowwe don’t plan to implement IoT solutions in the longer termInternet of Things
  • 29. Trendbook 201329I’ve decided to mention the above curiosities in order todemonstrate that the Internet of Things can be applied vir-tually anywhere. However, the three main categories to bementioned in this context are the pharmaceutical industry(the so-called digital health), home appliances (the so-calledsmart home), and the automotive industry. The IoT solu-tions used in these cases completely change the consumerexperience. When it comes to pharmacy – the Americancompany Proteus Digital Health manufactures special chipswhich are placed on the pills patients are about to take. Afterswallowing such a pill, stomach acid activates the chip andenables it to communicate with the receiving station stuckto our arm, for example, from where the signal goes to ourmobile phone – in this way, it sends reports to our doctor.JWhen it comes to smart home, this year’s CES includedthe presentations of such firms as Panasonic, Toshiba, andSamsung, in which they showcased their connected homeappliances. We could see connected fridges, washing ma-chines, dishwashers, ovens, etc.A lot has been already said about the possibility of havingfridges with Internet access; today, however, they are be-coming a reality and they are truly intelligent. Not only dothey know we’re running out of OJ, but we can use them tobuy a new carton. Moreover, the device makes suggestionsabout what we can cook using the products we currentlyhave in the fridge or allows us to use our friends’ recipes.During this year’s CES, a lot of time was devoted to con-nected cars. This category should be looked at from twoperspectives. Firstly, we should consider a connected car asa place where we can just hang out and soon won’t evenhave to focus on driving (auto-driving cars); therefore, thecontent is becoming increasingly important (hence the col-laboration of Hyundai with Google, or Chrysler’s solutiondriveuconnect.com). Secondly, due to geolocation, a con-nected car can be treated like a mobile shopping bag. Wecould easily imagine that while driving past a petrol station,we will get notified that it has a discount on petrol todayand you can buy it £1 cheaper (this sort of solutions arealready offered by Roximity, which cooperates with Ford,Kraft, and Walmart).Figure 9The benefits achieved from implementing Internet of Things solutions (data for Europe).Source: Building Value from Visibility, 2012 Enterprise Internet of Things Adoption Outlook, Forrester Research, October 2012Internet of Things
  • 30. Trendbook 201330At this point, it’s worth mentioning that theInternet of Things generates all sorts of prob-lems. One of them – the privacy issue – iscommented on by Lidia Geringer de Oeden-berg, Treasurer of the European Parliament.As well as the issue of privacy, however, theCES 2013 focused on yet another thing – shortbattery life-span – and the fact that there isstill no technology that could address thisissue.Applying the trend in marke-ting solutionsThe above Forrester report (Building Valuefrom Visibility) clearly shows that marke-ters see a multitude of ways in which thistrend can be applied in their campaigns(see Figure 9). The areas which I considerthe most attractive are all those related tothe product itself:• the possibility of improving/changing theproduct or service quality; adjusting theInternet access in a car has led to a shift in how we perceive this category of products. What we are observing is, most of all, the demandfor content.OneoftheseveralproblemsconnectedtoIoTwhichmanufacturersareawareofisshortbatterylife-span.TheInternationalCES2013featureda presentationshowcasingtheSpareOne. mobilephone. It is powered by a single AA battery which can hold its charge for up to 15 years ifunused, or for up to 10 hours of talk time when in use.Internet of Things
  • 31. Trendbook 201331The Internet of Things also enables objects to communicate among themselves with no human participation. We can imagine that when thealarm clock in our mobile phone goes off, a signal sent to our kettle puts it on for a morning coffee (see AllJoyn by Qualcomm)product to the needs of a particular user – e.g. last year, theBritish insurance company The Co-Operative Insuranceintroduced a car insurance package for young drivers, inwhich premiums are calculated based not on their age,but on their actual skills. The participants of the pay as youdrive programme received a special device which, for oneand a half months, evaluated their driving in four areas:braking and acceleration, cornering, average speed, andthe time of day in which they usually drove a car. Thedata was sent to the insurer, who used the information tocalculate the premium. Moreover, the participants couldlog in to their individual panels to check their scores andtake advice on how to drive better;• introducing new products or services otherwise im-possible to implement without IoT – e.g. FedEx’sSenseAware service, that enables the real-time monitoringof such elements as ambient temperature, light intensity,humidity, pressure, etc. (particularly important in the caseof transporting medical products, e.g. in transplantation,livestock, food, etc.);• personalising the message, product as a medium – al-ready today, QR codes or the visual search technologymake it possible to encode information in the product.The problem is that this piece of information is the samefor all consumers. On Father’s Day last year, Diageo, inco-operation with the firm Evrythng, allowed consumersto personalise their message on 100,000 bottles of theiralcohol (you could record your private video and attach itto a particular bottle – read the case study); go to page 36to read about Chris Cobb’s commentary on how we canuse the RFID readers placed in Levi’s clothes for logisticpurposes and beyond.• providing the consumer with new experiences and newopportunities – something that Nike has been doing fora long time now, first in Nike+, now in Nike FuelBand; wecan also see it in miCoach by Adidas.Internet of Things
  • 32. Trendbook 201332Internet of Things – legal regulationsLidia Geringer de OedenbergTreasurer in the Bureau of the European Parliament, Member of the Committee on Legal Affairs, Budgets, and PetitionsThe term Internet of Things appeared for the first time in1999. Since then, a lot has changed in this domain, and evenmore novelties are expected in the coming years. Althoughthe topic is becoming increasingly popular, and more andmore smart devices become fixtures in our homes - this newtrend has not brought a corresponding set of regulations.In the UK, where NEUL - the worlds first wireless networkable to send data to the so-called white spaces (unusedchannels in TV spectrum) and to cover an entire city (onlyCambridge so far) – is being developed, market regulationsin this matter are in the consultation phase. The result willbe a report which will make a starting point for future le-gislation in this new domain. In the legal systems of otherEU Member States, there is no legislation prepared for theadvent of these new technologies either. The EuropeanCommission (EC) is observing the development of similartechnologies with great interest, but we will have to waita little longer for some joint laws in this sector. So far, the Eu-ropean Commission has only issued one Communication toInternet of Things
  • 33. Trendbook 201333the European Parliament and the Council in 2009, entitled:Internet of Things - an action plan for Europe COM(2009)0278 final.From the legislator’s perspective, the following issues inclu-ded in the Communication seem to be problematic:• bject naming and identifying,• authorities responsible for assigning appropriate identifiersin intelligent machines,• ways to search for information about particular things,• ensuring personal information security and controllingthe ethical mechanisms related to using our personal in-formation on the Internet.Under the Seventh Framework Programme (CIP), the Com-mission also plans to launch a research project on the chal-lenges in the field of social problems associated with thisnew technology. In June, the public consultation initiatedby the European Commission in early April 2012 was ended.It was attended by over 600 people (more on the resultsof the consultation at http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/en/news/conclusions-internet-things-public-consultation).The consultation is to be used by the EC to issue a recom-mendation on the Internet of Things, to be published thissummer. Unfortunately, the exact time-frame for the le-gislative work on the document has not been specified; weonly know that the Commission’s legislative proposal willnot be presented until at least mid-2014. The matter will betaken up by the next tenure deputies.The main risks stemming from such advanced technolo-gies are related to the violations of our privacy and, morespecifically, to the question of what kind of data will becollected, stored, or transmitted by such devices. Today, weare already dealing with a crisis of privacy protection. I havebeen recently working on the amendments to the reporton the Regulation on the protection of personal data. Thedocument presented by the Commission was very insightful,but required certain improvements. However, before westarted working on it, the project had already gained a lotof media attention, triggering a great deal of controversy.The document’s aim was to show how to reasonably re-concile the protection of our personal data, which is ourinalienable right guaranteed by Art. 8 of the Charter of Fun-damental Rights of the European Union, with the use andfree flow of this data, which is associated with our dailyactivities and business approach. The report received 3,133amendments, which confirms the significance of these re-gulations.The issue raised in the draft regulation which is both parti-cularly sensitive and innovative is the right to be forgotten.I have submitted as many as four amendments concerningthis issue alone. The right to be forgotten, as proposed bythe Commission is not feasible in practice. It is not possibleto have all the information put by us or about us on theInternet removed with a single request to delete them sentto our administrator. In the attempt to clarify this regulationand make it practical, I have offered a few legal constraintsthat help the administrator to actually get rid of the contenthe manages or for the transmission of which he is respon-sible. Naturally, such a request to delete the content mustrelate only to those data for the processing of which thereis no other legal basis, except for the subject’s consent (forinstance, the data in the registry of debtors or the data onthe legally valid conviction of a person).The report will be put to a vote in the Committee on CivilLiberties (LIBE) on 24-25 April, and the final adoption of thetext by the EU Parliament is expected to take place in thesecond half of the year.The draft agenda, the report, and the amendments are ava-ilable at:http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/or-ganes/libe/libe_20130320_0900.htmAdditional information is available on the Commission’swebpage at:http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-12-360_pl.htmInternet of Things
  • 34. Trendbook 201334„Today, people are living their livesvia screens”John McHale and Chris Cobb, Creative Directors at Sapient Nitro, will tell us about where new technologies are headedand whether our future will resemble the worlds of such films as Wall-e or Minority Report.Natalia Hatalska: wondered why therere so many peo-ple from the advertising and media industry are presenton the show that was previously known as the consumerelectronics show.John McHale: If we look at the way technology is changing,all these new things coming out every year, I think for peo-ple like advertisers or brands, they need to know and needto keep a finger on the pulse of things like that becausethats the way technology is going, because thats the worldconsumers live in. I think to not be here and not see whatscoming next would be foolish. You wouldnt know whatsnext and you would be trailing and bleeding.Chris Cobb: Exactly, and we actually see that a lot of tradi-tional agencies kind of play catch-up. So there are a lot ofInternet of Things
  • 35. Trendbook 201335agencies out there that stay in touch with this stuff, espe-cially because clients expenditures go from traditional to di-gital. So its a matter of paying more attention to digital andtechnologies because these are new important channels.And these are also spaces where one can create a contentin, so you have to understand what is technology, and howis this technology enabling these new types and new formsof content people are engaging in.John McHale: I believe that it used to be such a one-wayconversation with marketing and advertising when thecompany came up with a message and then they threw itout. They were talking to you, not talking with you at all.And now it changed. Brands started communicating backand forth with consumers when social channels openedup. And it was about releasing the brand out to the wilda little bit. Now its even getting to the place where brandsare facilitating conversation between consumers, they arebecoming the vehicle by which brands and consumers cancommunicate and I think that is the reason why peopleare here and see all those new technologies that make itbetter or easier.NH: But now its still more about being first since we cannottalk about the scale because not so many people are usingall these devices. Some even say that when it comes to newtechnologies, we have to be first and we will justify why weused it later. Do you agree with this statement or do youthink its more about the benefits of the new technologiesand about the experience?John: Well, while you were talking, I just thought aboutbeing a rep for music, for a label, who tries to find the band.And its a risky job because you cant be sure if the band isgoing to be the next hit. There is a huge risk involved in that.So I think its more about what Malcolm Gladwell said, "Youdont want to be first, you want to be third," because peoplewho are first tend to make mistakes, the second personimproves on it, and when you are third, then you can comeup with something amazing. So I think that maybe we arehere to watch whats going on, what is great and loud, whosgoing to do that first, and then anticipate that maybe weregoing to do that third.Chris: There are some great examples, especially in socialnetworks - we had Friendster, My Space, and then Facebook.There are all these examples of “let people carve out thepath for you and do all the work for you and once its doneyou can say this is the channel I see the opportunity in toimprove upon."John: So back to your qu-estion – you want to knowwhats first but you dontwant to make mistakes asfirst. Its better when some-body else is doing that andpaying for that.NH: OK, so lets take au-gmented reality as an example. Do you believe in thistechnology? Because 3-5 years ago, there was a big boomabout AR, and now it is used but in a totally different way.Chris: When augmented reality first came out, it was a lit-tle clumsy – you had to have glyphs and readers for thoseglyphs. The initial static that came out was overwhelmingand I think thats always like that with technology adoption.But as we are seeing it now, its more about practical usage,for a very specific use – for a one-off, and what I mean byone-off is creating the experience and via this experienceyoure going to communicate something. The greatestexample Ive seen of this was National Geographic. Theybuild this augmented reality experience where, for example,a lion would come up and walk around you, or astronautswould bounce in front of you.NH: But Im not sure if this is still an experience. Everythingis on the screen. A very similar example - the so-called au-gmented reality mirrors or virtual changing rooms. Im notbuying it, because it doesnt give me anything special.Chris: Ill give you an example. We were testing a Coca-Colafreestyle machine. Its a touch screen soda fountain fromwhich you can choose over 120 flavors. Its also an augmen-ted reality. Another example - in American football, theresa first down line and then this line of scrimmage. When youare watching television, these two lines are showing youhow far the ball needs to go. Thats augmented reality, andpeople tend to forget that because they are mainly focusedon how to use their mobile phones. I think all augmentedreality is more of the passive form. And this passive con-sumption is extremely valuable.NH: But I mean more active consumption. For example,digital storefronts. Adidas has introduced it lately in Ger-many - you can buy clothes simply by swiping them intoyour mobile phone. You dont have to scan the QR code.Chris: I know what youre talking about. This is brilliantbecause technology is extending the life of this physicalPeople who are first tendto make mistakes, thesecond person improveson it, and when youare third, then you cancome up with somethingamazing.Internet of Things
  • 36. Trendbook 201336store. It might be closed but at the same time it is ticking24h thanks to the web possibilities.NH: So there’s a benefit for the consumer.Chris: The interesting thing about retail and putting digi-tal things like that is that the retail is going to tackle somechallenges. Technology is really enabling this new way forpeople to shop. And it might even be the way that peopleare expecting it right now.John: And its all about the extra content when standing inan aisle, holding up this shirt, you look at it and learn moreabout it: how to take care of it, the material, other sizes, andso on. Its about adding premium content around thingsthat I am exploring. For me, its about delivering the brandawareness, understanding the brand, and educating aboutthe brand.Chris: We were working on Levi’s. And theyre going to starttagging their clothes with RFID. Theyre doing it operationallybecause they are doing stock loss and inventory tracking,that type of thing. But it might be as well things like additio-nal information, users reviews or videos, whatever.John: I really appreciate when a brand is educating me soI feel more inclined to go back to them because I feel vastinterest in that brand, because theyve made me smarter,made me look better…NH: Dont you think that all of these smart things andtechnologies make us think that we are smarter but, infact, they make us much more stupid?Chris: Well, it depends. When you use maps, you are relyingon a piece of technology that tells you how to get there.But when it comes to things like information and buildingon top of something, like we were talking about the retail,for example, technology is helping me understand details.I would agree in a sense that technology does enable lazi-ness sometimes. But, on the other hand, I think it is doinga lot to educate. There have been plenty of studies andinsights how technology is actually lifting people out ofsituations that they are currently in. They may not haveaccess to information in school but they have it throughother digital means.NH: We also expect that technology will make our lifeeasier. Look how we interact with the devices. We donthave to learn how to interact with them anymore, wejust wave our hands, we talk to them. In the near future,we will just think and they will respond.Chris: Raymond Kurzweil has written the theory on singu-larity. He describes an event where we actually have to fusewith technology becauseartificial intelligence beco-mes robust and starts thin-king on its own and startsto become smarter thanus. In order for us to keepup with this technology, wehave to fuse with it. And itsfunny when we are talkingabout the technology weknow right now. We arethinking digital because weare living in a digital rena-issance of technology, buttechnology has always been a part of human history: thecar, the factories. Its not just digital.NH: I think the main difference in using technology nowand in the past is that nowadays technology has a humanface, dont you think? For example, there is some researchthat says 25% of us would like to have a one-to-one con-versation with vending machines. We would like vendingmachines to respond.John: Have you seen the movie “Wall-e”?NH: Yes, I have.John: Thats what will happen with us? We will be just sit-ting around and becoming obese? [laughter] I dont wantto start things against technology, but I hate e-mail rightnow. If you want to tell me something, come and talk tome. I would rather talk to people because we e-mail andtext, and its all around for so long so you cant actually readpeoples emotions. Im going to the point in my life whenI need to see people respond and feel the emotions thatcome out of them.Chris: Well, I feel like what we are doing right now, especiallythe social, e-mail, and all types of communication channelswe are using, it’s just reached the peak. And we might begoing even higher, but Im wondering if this whole idea ofpublishing everything about yourself and constantly beingon-line will, at some point, go down and then the privacywill become cool again and the interaction will becomeInternet of ThingsIts funny when weare talking about thetechnology we knowright now.We are thinking digitalbecause we are livingin a digital renaissanceof technology, buttechnology has alwaysbeen a part of humanhistory.
  • 37. Trendbook 201337cool again... You know, I havent posted anything personalon Facebook in three years. I have a Twitter account andhave never tweeted.NH: Why?Chris: Well, because it’s noise, more and more noise.NH: Or you are trying to protect your privacy...Chris: Yes, I protect my privacy, but also I just have enoughnoise as it is in my life. So for me, its like Im just addingmore and more…John: Its also brand you need to keep up with, right? Whenyou are social like that… When you are on Instagram orFacebook or Twitter, you are brand. Before, there were justpeople, that was John and that was Chris, and now we arethe brand of John, the brand of Chris, how do you want tobrand yourself? You have to have the right photo as yourprofile photo, you have to say the right things. Wheneveryoure typing things, you need to keep it in mind what ismy voices tone. Is this in line with what I said 2 months agobecause people will backtrack that and check that - "well,its not what you said then, you were a little different then."NH: Do you think that this de-teching trend is gettingstronger then, and we are going to stop using technology?Are we afraid of our privacy loss, about who we are, andthat we have to pretend all the time?John: In social world, it is no longer about making oursel-ves happy but taking careof what other people thinkabout us. Do they thinkIm funny? Are they goingto follow me? So, the morethings we say or write theywant to read, the morefollowers we get. Theresa bunch of schizophrenicsand frustrated people outthere.Chris: I struggle when I get off Facebook because I am like“I’ll miss something or people will forget about me.” But mylife wasnt necessarily enriched by all of them. The truth isthat I found more enrichment off-line then I did on-line.John: The problem is that what people are doing now isexperiencing their life through the screen. Its like we arenot taking time to experience things but we tweet aboutthem. I think that phones are taking us away from what weIs the future that awaits us more like the one we know from the film about the robot Wall-e?Internet of ThingsThe problem is thatpeople are experiencingtheir life through thescreen. Its like we are nottaking time to experiencethings but we tweetabout them.
  • 38. Trendbook 201338are doing right now. Its like “OMG, Im in Vegas” and thencamera click, click, click… and Im not really experiencing it.We’re just missing out on our lives! You know it could begreat because in 30 years we will be able to go back, lookon these photos and actually experience our lives, but atthe moment we are missing it. I think technology makesthat happen.NH: Ok, so lets talk a little bit about the ads that are followingus and know who we are, where we are, and what we havejust bought. Do you think this is our future? Will it be like inthe Minority report movie?Chris: I think yes, all of this stuff is coming. And I think thatthis is already happening since we are having this conver-sation about Facebook privacy settings. However, whatsgoing to have to happen is the conversation about optingin and out of these things. For example, when I walk intoa store and there is a billboard with some kind of digitaldisplay saying: "Hey Chris! Looks like you were here 2 weeksago and you bought this shirt. We just got this pants thatlllook great with that shirt. Go to the section X" Its doing itautomatically and the biggest conversation is going to beif I will be able to turn that off in such a way that I reallyknow for sure that it’s not going to be broadcast, that all thethings connected with privacy will be fulfilled.John: Its funny because I think when George Orwell wrote1984, we were like "Oh no! Cameras everywhere?! Oh, thatscrazy!" And look at us today. Weve got cameras everywhereand we are used to that. We are not so freaked out like weused to. And this is the same with the new technology – itmay be strange for us at the beginning, but it will becomenormal for us some day. I think we are getting to the pointwhen we will be upset when it doesn’t happen, when wewalk into a store and it doesnt recognize us. Because, atthat point, it will be like having a concierge who knows whowe are and what we want and every store will be like that.Chris: I think all of this stuff is coming if it is supported bypeople. So if people support and trust what is going to bedone, that it will be done with the best intention, things willkeep moving forward. However, I dont think we know thelong-term effects mentally. Its like, logically speaking, we’reremoving ourselves more and more from the natural world.We are moving into the digital, automated kind of worldwhere you have informa-tion at your fingertips orthings cured automaticallyfor you. This ‘detaching’ ismore and more from thenatural world and there arestudies showing that whenyou are getting more and more out of the natural world, it iscreating new types of disorders, new problems with people,new stresses that people never had. So its breaking point.Those are just realms that are leading us into different paths.I dont know if we know what these paths are yet.NH: So the future doesnt seem right?John: Thats why I brought up Orwells book. We were allsaying “thats crazy,” but everybody is filming us and nowwere used to it. Actually, now we like it because now weknow where and why the car accident has happened, wecan fill in an insurance claim. When we are walking in thestreet, we know that there are cameras and we feel safer.So its really hard to say that it isnt right. Maybe its notright for us right now, but it will be perfectly great when itcomes to our safety.Chris: You brought up the whole car insurance and look atthe telematics. This little modal thing that you can put intoyour car and it reads a diagnosis of your car. The selling pointof this technology is that it is rewarding your good drivingbehavior. And thats great! Thats the optimistic way to lookat it! So we need to sell technology optimistically - that itmakes everything look better. But it should also be abouteducation so that the consumer can see both sides of thecoin of technology. If you are more informed, you havea better portrait of how to use it.re more informed you havea better portrait how to use it.NH: Thank you.The new technologymay be strange for usat the beginning, butit will become normalfor us some day.Internet of Things
  • 39. Trendbook 201339Wearablecomputers- the era of humanity+It is predicted that in 2080 part of the humanity will be more "computerised" thanbiological. It is quite possible, considering how many people today have artificialhips, artificial heart valves, prosthetic limbs, or surgically corrected vision. Analysingour almost complete fusion with a mobile phone, some anthropologists claim thatwe are already modern cyborgs.
  • 40. Trendbook 201340About the trendThe gadgets serving as our sixth sense, so far only seen inThe Terminator, the movies based on Marvel’s comics, orin early Bonds (in Skyfall, the only gadget Bond gets is ...a radio), have become our reality. Wearable computers arenothing more than connected devices always in the ‘on’mode, easy to put on and wear, which make the appropriate(different) measurements in real time. They also have thecapacity of two-way, human-machine communication.These may be watches, sunglasses, clothes (including smartfabrics), contact lenses, rings, bracelets, smart tattoos, head-bands, etc. At the CES, however, it was clear that the biggestbattle manufacturers were fighting in this category wasfor the wrist (a large part of the solutions in the wearabletech category is worn on the wrist), but there were alsosuch devices as headphones for monitoring our heart andlistening to music during jogging (PerformTek by Valencell).According to the IMS report - World Market for WearableTechnology: A Quantitative Market Assessment, 2012 – as manyas 14 million of such devices were sold in 2011 alone. It isestimated that by 2016 revenues from this category willamount to at least $6 billion. Among the big players workingon wearable devices are Google (Google Glass), Nike (NikeFuelband), and Nokia (it has filed a patent application forthe so-called vibrating tattoo that notifies the user whensomeone is calling him or has sent him a text message),which only proves the significance of this trend. However,the fastest-growing areas in this category are mainly thehealthcare and medical segments (which is certainly relatedto the aging population). This category is also to rule theroost in the forthcoming years (see Figure 10).According to the data cited during the panel Where TechMeets Fashion, the number of wearable tech devices to besold in 2013 is to reach 40 million, and over the next threeyears – the number will soar to 200 million.It should be emphasised that the Polish term of this trend -textronics – in fact concerns only one of its parts. Textronicsis about smart clothing and textiles (e.g. Aegis Parka – a ja-cket for asthma sufferers which measures air pollution andautomatically launches a built-in respirator if the pollutionlevel is too high). This me-ans that all textronic solu-tions are at the same timewearable tech solutions, butwearable tech solutions arenot necessarily textronics(see e.g. Google Glass, theproducts offered by Larklife,Fitbit etc.).Accompanying trendsquantified self/ myself, algorithmed lifeAnother category closely related to wearable tech is thetrend referred to as quantified self/ algorithmed life. As men-tioned above, the computers that we wear make differenttypes of measurements and analyse data in real time. Asa result, we can keep track of just about anything: howmany calories we’ve burned, how many steps we’ve walked,for how many hours we slept, how we slept, how high wecan jump, how strong we are, what is our blood pressure,respiratory rate, etc. Since all these devices are connected,we can share all the information with our friends on socialnetworking sites (during the CES 2013 panel Our Bodies, OurData, Steven LeBoeuf, the CEO at Valencell, described it asthe "public masturbation of your private data"). The amountof generated information is so vast that, in the context ofthis trend, experts are talking about a shift from big datato my data.Wearable computersKey wordswearable computers,wearable tech,extronics,smart clothing,we are our owncomputers
  • 41. Trendbook 201341Reasons behind the trendJust by looking at Figure 10 alone and considering the factthat the most booming category of wearable tech is he-althcare and medicine, we can easily conclude that one ofthe main reasons for this trend to occur is the demand formonitoring our own health due to the aging populationand increased incidence of chronic modern-age diseases(such as diabetes, allergies, etc.). From the user perspec-tive, another big-league trend prevalent today is being fit,as well as controlling and improving the quality of life. Inlate March 2013, the site quantifiedself.com published thesurvey results which demonstrate that the main reason forusing wearable computers is the desire to better under-stand ourselves (see Figure 11). Other key characteristicsof contemporary consumers which fuel this trend includetheir narcissistic approach to the world, exhibitionism, andoversharing their personal information.Examples of the trendGoogle (e.g. Google Glass) and Apple (Apple smartwatchis to enter the market by the end of 2013) are among thosetycoons which have become very much engrossed in thewearable computers trend. The Forrester report WearableComputing: The Next Devices And Platforms That Matter ToYour Product Strategy (April 17, 2012) also points out thatThe device iBitz, tracking our physical activity, is to be worn on a shoe. It’savailable in both child and adult versions (the photo shows the child ver-sion). It’s clearly visible that, in this category, the design is the key element.Ultimately, all these devices are to be worn on our body.Figure 10World market for wearable technology - revenues by application; mid-range forecast.The size of the bubble indicates relative market size.Source: IMS - World Market for Wearable Technology: A Quantitative Market Assessment, 2012Wearable computers
  • 42. Trendbook 201342the biggest war in the wearables category will be wagednot between equipment manufacturers, but between the“big five” platforms: Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, and Facebook (hardware without software is merelya technological curiosity of no significance). Last year, wehad a chance to see an interesting campaign by Ballantines,which teamed up with CuteCircuit (authors of the famousTwitter dress for Nicole Scherzinger – see video) to createthe worlds first tShirtOS – a digital T-shirt displaying contentfrom social media. As regards trend quantified myself, I getthe impression that the market is filled with almost infinitenumber of companies. Here’s to mention just a few:• BodyMedia – a device – an armband, to be precise – whichcaptures 5,000 data points about us in just one minute,analysing our sleep, weight, calories, and daily activities;• Larklife – a wristband which is like a personal fitness coach– it analyses many factors simultaneously, so when youpull an all-nighter, it will tell you what kind of breakfastwill get you back on your feet and help you stay energisedthroughout the entire day;• Fitbug – helps us fulfil our own personal goals;• iBitz – available in two versions – for kids and adults; itmostly measures the number of steps we’ve taken duringthe day, but also our weight, general physical activity, andBMI. Activities can be tracked individually or for a group ofpeople (family or a group of friends). What is interesting isthe fact that the kid’s version is equipped with an additio-nal feature – a virtual pet called GeoBotz - which the childmust keep alive with the right amount of his own physicalactivity during the day, healthy eating, and drinking water(an attempt to deal with childhood obesity).This trend, however, is churning out a whole bunch ofuseless contraptions, such as the device HapiTrack – wecarry it around with us all day and whenever somethingnice happens to us, we press it (just to capture your happymoment...).The main battle in the category of wearable tech is being fought for thewrist, but there is also a lot of devices intended to be worn on our arm,head, face, or even ear.Figure 11Main reasons behind using wearable technology devicesSource: quantifiedself.com, March 26, 2013What prompted you to start using a self-tracking device and to become interested in the quantified self trend?Wearable computers
  • 43. Trendbook 201343Applying the trend in marketing solutionsWhen it comes to this trend, the idea is to improve the qua-lity of our lives. Consumers are unlikely to reach for fancygadgets, but for the solutions that genuinely allow them topursue their goals and improve their life quality. Moreover,wearable technology allows to:• understand a consumer better due to the fact that hewears the device permanently;• position the product better (e.g. NikeFuelband – life isa sport and Fitbit – life is an experiment).The industries which should be particularly interested in thiscategory include: sports (possibility to improve one’s ownresults), insurance (adjusting premiums to the user’s health),medicine/pharmacy (health monitoring, fighting with obe-sity), entertainment (including games - the opportunity tocompete with others; personalgaming - the game tailored toa specific user and his abilities, mood, location, etc.).The design of wearables is the key element - users are unli-kely to carry something which is heavy or will make themlook like they are starring in the 1980s science fiction movie(which is why Google Glass is very eager to team up withfashion designers or musicians – so that someone wearinga "face computer" doesn’t look ridiculous). There are, howe-ver, certain problems associated with this trend, e.g. privacyprotection, or something more down-to-earth - how towash clothes with a built-in computer?Wearable computersOne of the market segments particularly active in this category is the sports industry. The picture shows a device monitoring the quality of ourhigh jumps. It could potentially be used by basketball players.Diagram 2Computer on our face. Evolution.computer onour desktop:PCcomputer on our knees:laptop, tablet, smartfoncomputer on our body:Nike Fuelband, Jawbone Up,Fitbit, Apple smartwatchcomputer on our face:Google Glass
  • 44. Trendbook 201344Above anything else, clothing is alwayssomething that fulfils a particularfunctionWojciech BednarzDesigner at VistulaI believe that fashion has reached a point where it visuallyrevolves around the things which were already de rigueursomewhere in the past. Season by season, we can see thatone minute we go back to the 1950s or 1960s, then again weget inspired by the 1980, and that goes on and on. Naturally,I’m generalising a bit, but the truth is that the only dyna-mic change occurs in the realm of technologies related tothe production of textiles or ready-made products. In thefield that I’m working in, it is especially visible in the wayswoollen fabrics are trimmed, in various coatings, and inthe yarn itself, later used to produce a fabric. As of today,no one is surprised by the materials which were conside-red cutting-edge just a few years back. What I mean hereis different types of membranes, coatings, breathable fa-brics, etc. Perhaps the next trend that gradually becomesthe mainstream will be the fabrics that use electronic andWearable computers
  • 45. Trendbook 201345IT solutions. Granted, clothing has many aesthetic values.Above anything else, however, it is always something thatfulfils a particular function. Once, it only used to protectagainst cold or heat; now, nobody focuses on such mundaneproperties anymore; people are looking for something else.Maybe the next step will be, for example, suits that havea mini personal computer embedded inside and whosetouch screen has the same structure as the fabric? In myview, there is only one question - is it still fashion or maybeyet another wrapping for an electronic gadget? Or maybe,its the next generation of clothes (which are no longer justclothes) which is to take us one step closer, literally andfiguratively, to having a constant access to all the informa-tion that we need on a regular basis, and to stay in constanttouch with our loved ones.Fashion, music, architecture – these are the areas that havealways been the quickest to respond to changes in societyand mentality. I will even hazard a guess that these doma-ins have been the means of conveying these changes andhave always broken down various barriers. In recent years,fashion has become a giant money-making machine andhas partly lost its idealistic function. It is this fact that raisesanother question: is the fashion that uses technology simplya fast reaction to what people actually need, or is it ratherthat the manufacturers of new technologies are cunninglytrying to win new markets and new customers under theguise of such a strong tool as fashion?In my understanding, in the design process, function is justas important as the visual side and quality of the product.Anyway, I like the things that people wear only becausethey like them. Sometimes they do it out of vanity, for theirown sheer pleasure of wearing them, paying no heed totheir practical aspect. Myjob is to make the thingsI design practical, but I al-ways want to do it in sucha way that the customer’schoice is not based onpragmatism, but his desireto have something he likes,something that will makehim happy. If the futurebrings me the opportunityto use technology that,besides making clothespractical, will create a newvisual or aesthetic quality,I’ll be happy to do it. Puttingmy personal opinion aside - I still think the majority of Poleswill treat such clothing in terms of a fashion-related curio-sity, at least for some time. Naturally, I mean the symbolicmajority. While they willingly use high-tech sportswear andappreciate Teflon coatings or Nano fabrics, clothing packedwith electronics might seem a little odd to them.Wearable computersClothing has manyaesthetic values.Above anything else,however, it is alwayssomething that fulfilsa particular function.Once, it was only usedto protect against coldor heat; now, nobodyfocuses on suchmundane propertiesanymore.
  • 46. Trendbook 201346When dreams end...Zuzanna SkalskaHead of Trends, VanBerlo, the NetherlandsThe modern world of technology has reached the prover-bial wall. Its entire development was possible only due tothe miniaturisation of silicon, which is the fundamentalelement of todays computer processors. However, thatprocess has also reached its limits. There’s nothing left tominiaturise and therefore it’s impossible to create anythingtruly revolutionary. That is why new materials are created,which brings new technological opportunities.The new "crown prince" of Silicon Valley is graphene, whichwon Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov the 2010 NobelPrize in Physics for their experiments with this material.Graphene is the only substance which has a chance to re-place silicon since, as stated in Wikipedia, its transparencyand excellent electrical conductivity make it suitable forthe production of transparent touchscreens that can berolled up or energy-saving sources of light. Furthermore,Wearable computers
  • 47. Trendbook 201347graphene can be used to generate renewable energy fromsolar panels and to store it in high-performance batteries.Sensors contained in graphene can detect the presence ofa single molecule of a harmful substance. Due to this pro-perty, graphene is used in environmental monitoring andprotection. When added to plastics, graphene can convertthem into electrical conductors; combined with aluminium,it can be used to build smart electrical grids. The electrons ingraphene move at speeds up to 1/300 of the speed of light,which makes it possible to carry out many experiments thatpreviously required the use of an accelerator.How does it all translate into practice? It means that we’llbe able to fit the power of todays computers or smartp-hones into minute surfaces. I will even be as bold as to usethe word nano-surfaces, as this is exactly the direction thistechnology is heading towards.These days, technology is the added value, determiningthe product’s level of advancement. In the not so distantfuture, however, everything will have a hidden, cutting-edge,nano-scale technology. Consequently, what will make theproduct stand out is not technology, but the material andthe way it was made. Technology will no longer be a barrier.Already today we can observe that several products whichonce belonged to entirely different areas merge into one.The examples include cameras, phones, books, maps, phonebooks, CD players, TVs, video recorders, notebooks, diaries,bank cheques, etc. All these “things,” alongside with thou-sands of more, have transformed into apps in our phones.Over the last decade, mobile phones have undergone a ve-ritable multi-transformation. They have become techno-logical mutants, an attempt to make all our dreams cometrue, and a testing groundfor any industry.This ground serves asa completely unidentifiedgarden of opportunities.Maybe one day, thanksto nanotechnology, a sin-gle finger move will beenough to change the co-lour of the wall coveredwith an AMOLED 5.0-basedpaint. Maybe all road signswill disappear because thefuture means of transportwill communicate withone another anyway.It seems that the possibilities of the technologies to comewill be bigger than our dreams. And without dreams, we canquickly become miserable. This is why we shouldn’t focus ontechnology, but on the beauty of the materials with whichwe can work. After all, it is the materials that shall reign inthe future. Here comes the real renaissance 2.0.Wearable computersMaybe one day, thanksto nanotechnology,a single finger movewill be enough tochange the colour ofthe wall covered withan AMOLED 5.0-basedpaint. Maybe all roadsigns will disappearbecause the futuremeans of transport willcommunicate with oneanother anyway.
  • 48. Trendbook 201348Let’s leave technological clothesfor the far-away futureMarcin Paprocki and Mariusz Brzozowski, designers at Paprocki&Brzozowski tell us about the adapting of the wearabletech trend among Poles.Natalia Hatalska: Do you think the trend known as textro-nics is also visible in Poland?Marcin Paprocki: We don’t see it in Poland on a daily basis.For now, these are rather curiosities more fun to watchthan wear, associated with the Bond-movie gadgets ratherthan with practical solutions to be used in one’s clothingstyle or in real fashion. Many of these cutting-edge ideasare simply far-fetched mixtures of technology and clothes.Let’s take trousers with mobile phone pockets. OK – maybeit’s creative, but at the same time very corny.Mariusz Brzozowski: There are other, more sensible, andmuch straightforward ways in which fashion often usesmodern technology - live Internet broadcasts, holograp-hic fashion shows, mappings, applications, Diane vonPhoto courtesy of Aldona Kaczmarczyk/Van Dorsen TalentsWearable computers
  • 49. Trendbook 201349Furstenberg’s last show transmitted via Google Glass, or3D shows. A few years ago, our brand Paprocki&Brzozowskialso participated in this type of a project, running a fashionshow in 3D technology. We say a definite ‘yes’ to this sortof technology – to using such solutions to create an inte-resting setting for a fashion show and to convey fashion.However, technology as an embedded element of clothingis just a whim, which makes it harder to use a particulargarment in everyday life.NH: Does it mean that Polish people are simply not readyfor this trend yet?Mariusz Brzozowski: Fashion has to constantly surpriseus – that’s its inherent role. Trends must be modern andforward-looking; no wonder then that they allude to newtechnologies, which are mushrooming at the speed of light.We think, however, that people don’t need it yet. A dresswhich is also a phone? For now, a fancy mobile phone caseor a small pocket in a purse will do. Anything of a moremundane style, for that matter.Marcin Paprocki: Granted, consumers are getting increa-singly hungry for new technologies equipment-wise, but atthe same time they need simpler and more practical clothes.Breathable, wrinkle- and stain-resistant fabrics are the rightdirection, as opposed to embedded chips or other solutionsof this sort. Maybe it will work in Japan, where the gadgetcraze in fashion is reaching its peak. In Poland, however,such trends have a long way to come before they enter themainstream.NH: Do you share my opinion that when it comes to textro-nics, the main problem today is that certain people mightfear that wearing such gadgets will make them look likecharacters from B-rated sci-fi films? What are the key ele-ments when designing such clothes?Marcin Paprocki: Above all, as we’ve mentioned earlier, fun-ctionality is of the utmost importance. Genuine practicality– not a symbiosis betweentechnology and fashion,whatever the cost. Let’sleave the curiosities formuseums. Fashion has tobe real. The designs by Hus-sein Chalayan which usedto combine trends in fa-shion and science (clothes--furniture, clothes-lamps,etc.) may be featured in thealbums on the 21st-centuryfashion, but you certainlywon’t find them hanging from store racks. There are co-untless examples. Let’s leave technological clothes for thefar-away future.NH: Thank you very much.Wearable computersFashion has toconstantly surpriseus. Trends must bemodern andforward-looking; nowonder then thatthey allude to newtechnologies, whichare mushrooming atthe speed of light.
  • 50. Trendbook 201350Kiedy firmy wiedzą o nas więcej niż mysami, czyli big data i prywatnośćW przypadku tzw. big data nie chodzitylko o ogrom informacji, które gene-rujemy. Bardziej istotne są dwie innekwestie. Pierwsza – że marketerzy majądo dyspozycji tzw. nieustrukturyzowanedane. Druga – że konsumenci mają świa-domość postępującej utraty prywatności.Big data& privacy– when companies know more about usthan we do ourselvesIn the case of the so-called big data, it is not just about the enormity of informationthat we generate. There are two other issues which are more important. First ofall, marketers have the so-called unstructured data at their disposal. Second of all,consumers are becoming increasingly aware that they are gradually losing theirprivacy.
  • 51. Trendbook 201351About the trendThe fact that every day we generate a huge amount of in-formation has been known for a long time. Intel revealsthat we send 639,800 GB of data on-line every minute. Ciscopredicts that 2015 will bring the age of zettabyte (this termis used only in terms of the amount of information createdby people in the world). For me, this number (1 zettabyteis 1 trilliard1 bytes) is just as difficult to comprehend as thevastness of the universe. Cisco provides us with an example.1 zettabyte is 1,000 exabytes, and one (sic!) exabyte translatesinto 36,000 years of uninterrupted watching time of videofilms in HD quality. According to the February Nasuni report(The State of Cloud Storage 2013 Industry Report) the currentamount of data in the cloud has just exceeded one exabyte.This trend is also hugely influenced by two earlier trends –Internet of Things and wearable computers - or, more pre-cisely, the possibility of installing chips in virtually anythingand of connecting virtually anything to the Internet. Howe-ver, the most important thing related to the big data is nothow much information we generate, but what it is about.Modern data analysis is much more difficult, because theseare often unstructured data. So its not only about analysingour age, gender, or average income. Today, on the basis ofanalysing our ‘likes’ alone (so it’s not only the informationthat we wrote about ourselves that is analysed, but whatkind of books we read, what music we listen to, what kindof friends we have, etc.), the system is able to tell, with highdegree of accuracy, our sexual orientation, political beliefs,IQ, or even if we are the children of divorced parents2.No wonder then that this trend is inextricably linked to thephenomenon of progressive loss of privacy. On the onehand, upon hearing about such solutions as RIOT3, consu-mers may be terrified and take some action to protect them-selves against potential surveillance (the so-called cloaking).The New York-based artistAdam Harvey (interviewedon page 55) runs a num-ber of projects designed toprotect our privacy, inclu-ding CV Dazzle - a systemof hairstyles and make-upspreventing face recognition(e.g. by social networks,CCTV cameras, systems in-stalled in the ads), Camo-flash – a patent-pending clutch bag which automaticallytriggers the flash when someone is trying to take a pictureof us, and finally, the Stealth Wear clothing collection - made​​from a special metallised fabric that blocks the emission ofbodily heat, rendering us invisible to the surrounding drones.On the other hand, however, it appears that such advancedforms of tracking by commercial companies do not reallybother the consumers provided that they get a tailor-madeproduct or a lower price (see Figure 12).At this years CES, the privacy issue was actually featuredin all panels - from the consumer panel to the ones on we-arable computers and social TV.Key wordsfacial recognition,social screening,online tracking,predictivepersonalization,predictivecomputing,cloaking1. Trilliard = 1 000 000 000 000 000 000 0002. For more information, see M. Kosinski et al., Private traits and attributes are predictable from digital records of human behavior, PNAS, Feb 12, 2013.3. Rapid Information Overlay Technology System – developed by the firm Raytheon (one of the world’s biggest military and industrial corporations); on thebasis of data mined from social networking sites and the information embedded in photographs, etc., it allows the user to create a profile of a particularperson, or even to predict where this person’s going to be at particular times of the day. See more: How Raytheon Software Tracks You Online, The Guardian,10 February 2013.Big data & privacy
  • 52. Trendbook 201352Accompanying trendsInternet of Things, quantified selfFOMO – fear-of-missing-out – the fear of being excluded;users perpetually inform their social networking friends thatthey have changed their job, where they spent their holidays,what they are doing right now, where they go shopping, andso on, and so forth. Moreover, they are constantly checkingwhats new with their friends. They are driven by the fearthat the things others are doing are much more interesting.JOMO – joy-of-missing-out – the joy we feel because we’remissing out on something, where that "something" is clearlydefined – it’s the conscious choice not to use technology andsocial media (at least temporarily); it’s also about selectinginformation and focusing on the off-line, not the on-line life.Reasons behind the trendThe increased desire to make the information about our-selves public; the burgeoning penetration of smartphonesand other connected mobile devices; the development oftechnologies which allow user recognition based on suchparameters as face, location, interests, behaviours, productusage, etc.; technologies for tracking and analysing userbehaviour on social networking sites; analysing data in realtime.Examples of the trendThe big data trend is obviously most often used by govern-ments and marketers. I have definitely more in commonwith the latter, so I will provide examples from this categoryonly.I’ve already mentioned that new technologies make it po-ssible to identify the user based on his various features andto provide him with the product tailored to his interests. Forexample, Facedeals is the project that allows us to check inat specific locations using our face - the camera (e.g. CCTV)identifies who we are (for instance, by matching us to oursocial network picture and profile), where we are (e.g. inStarbucks), and then offers us a specific product. At the endof last year, hyperCrew and Brand24 teamed up to organisea campaign for Pizza DaGrasso. Brand24 followed Facebookstatuses related to the fact that someone was hungry or wasin the mood for pizza; then, a pizza was delivered to suchFigure 12Consumer attitudes toward the so-called predictive personalisationSource: JWT 10 Trends for 2013, December 14, 2012Consumers have nothing against tracking as long as there’s something in it for them.Big data & privacy
  • 53. Trendbook 201353Diagram 3Perspectives on the use of data – past and present.Source: World Economic Forum and The Boston Consulting Group, in: Unlocking the Value of Personal Data: From Collectionto Usage, World Economic Forum, The Boston Consulting Group, February 2013a person in the off-line world. The service Lenddo analyseswho our friends are and how we behave on Facebook. Onthis basis, they decide whether to grant us a loan or not(the phenomenon called online reputation). For the timebeing, banks are the only institutions that openly admitthat their large-scale use of unstructured data is becomingincreasingly common (e.g. people who listen to hip-hophave a lower credit rating).Supermarket chains are also very happy to use big data.I’m not going to dwell on the over-discussed case of Target,which, ​​by analysing the purchases made by female clients,is able to tell whether a woman is pregnant (as early as inthe second trimester). A very interesting solution is the appcalled AvoidTheShoppingCrowds, which analyses data fromsocial networking sites (check-ins, photos with geolocation,tweets, etc.) and from the CCTV footage, showing the realtime crowd volume in a given store (for now, the app isused by four Norwegian chains: Centrum, 9 Straatjes, Zuid,and ArenA). DunkinDonuts presents its current menu ontouchscreens - the availability of all products is updated ona regular basis. Staples.com differentiates the prices of itsproducts in its online store depending on the user’s currentlocation. The closer the user is to their competition’s sto-res - Office Max or Office Depot – in the off-line world, thelower the prices of the products offered by Staples. LocationThe main objective of using our data should be usability. The photoshows the Norwegian app Avoid the Shopping Crowds, which uses thecontent on social networking sites and the CCTV footage to evaluate thereal time crowd volume in a given shopping centre.Data actively collectedwith user awareness.Traditional approach New perspectiveDefinition of personal datais predetermined and binaryData collected for specified useUser is the data subjectIndividual provides legal consentbut is not truly engagedPolicy framework focuses onminimazing risks to the individualMost data from machine to machine transaction and passive collection -difficult to notify individualsDefinition of personal data is contextual and dependent on social normsEconomic value and innovation come from combining data setsand subsequent usesUser can be the data subject, the data controller, and/or data processorIndividuals engage and understand how data is used and how value is createdPolicy fousses on balancing protection with innovation and economic growthBig data & privacy
  • 54. Trendbook 201354The New York-based artist – Adam Harvey – is working on the projects which thwart consumer surveillance. In January 2013, he launched theclothing line referred to as anti-drone garments.is actually one of the most important factors now (the so--called shift from social to spatial).Using big data doesn’t always have to be commercial. Basedon the analysis of tweets (including photos, geolocation, andvideos), the Norwegian Twitcident solution enables rescueteams to react to emergencies quickly and effectively.There are also examples of using the counter-trend relatedto the protection of privacy. In March this year, in order toprovide its customers with the protection against possiblesurveillance, the Seattle-based restaurant 5PointCafe ban-ned people from entering with Google Glass (as we canguess, it was rather intended to generate a buzz consideringthe fact that Google Glass is not yet widely available).Applying the trend in marketing solutionsBig data is one of those 2013 trends that spark the most con-troversy precisely due to the privacy-related issues. Howe-ver, it is worth quoting the words of Ira Helf, Chief AnalyticsOfficer at JWT North America. In one of the interviews, hesaid: We’re not trying to invade your privacy. We’re trying togive you something that’s more relevant to what you’re doing.Aside from the fact that, despite the enormity of data,large amounts still remain unused (e.g. due to lack of kno-wledge, skills, resources, etc.), what big data really allowfor is the so-called predictive computing, and, as a result,predictive personalization. The idea is that marketers areable to meet the consumer’s expectations before they areeven voiced. Theres no denying that such solutions area win-win situation - the consumer is far more eager to buysomething that is tailored to his needs (which means moremoney for the marketer), and at the same time he doesn’thave to find his way through a maze of annoying and irre-levant messages. We can say, therefore, that as marketerswe’ve come full circle today. Modern technology gives usback what industrialisation took from us last century. Therelationship between the seller and the buyer is becomingvery personal again.One of the few campaigns using big data in Poland. DaGrasso delivered freepizza to those who wrote on their Facebook wall that they were hungry.Big data & privacy
  • 55. Trendbook 201355Trapped in a world of preciselyengineered experiencesAdam Harvey, the New York-based artist, talks about the world of total surveillance and how to protect ourselves against it.Natalia Hatalska: Are your privacy projects (CV dazzle, Ca-moflash, Stealth Wear) just an expression of art or do youthink they will actually be widely used some day?Adam Harvey: I hope that my work with countersurveil-lance will serve as a reference point and as inspiration fornavigating our complex future of total surveillance, wherewe are all spies. How will we behave in this environment?My projects are highly conceptual, but I also imagine themas being practical enough to use in certain situations. Theexample I often give when discussing these wearable coun-tersurveillance technologies is that all clothes are designedfor certain occasions, and some clothes are only worn oncea year. If you decide to style yourself with CV Dazzle or Stea-lth Wear for just one night a year, then its not that differentthan wearing a gown or a tuxedo.Big data & privacy
  • 56. Trendbook 201356NH: Your motto is "in privacy we trust" – but dont you thinkthat marketers use our data because we ourselves publishthis information online. So its more ours problem that wedo not protect our privacy.Adam: Advertisers and marketers must be competitive andhaving access to more insight through customer data gi-ves them this edge. The problem with posting private dataonline is not that advertisers reuse it in manipulative ways,thats expected. The problem is that the people who areposting their data and expressing themselves online cantsee who is in the room listening to them when they speak.It turns out that there are a lot of people in this room andonce you post your data and thoughts, it often becomesfreely accessible and permanently stored. This is a horribleway for us to express ourselves and communicate with eachother. I think youre right that this is a problem which peopleneed to be more aware of. Then we can act accordingly.NH: How do you work on your projects? Whats your inspi-ration and whats your goal?Adam: The goal of my countersurveillance work is to pro-mote privacy through art. I think there is a lot of discussionthat needs to happen in this area and by making privacyvisible through projects like CV Dazzle and Stealth WearI hope more people enter the discussion. I think thats theonly way we can figure out how to adapt to living in totalsurveillance, by involving as many people as possible andseeing how everyone rea-cts to the current state, orlack, of privacy. If everyoneis worried about this, andI think they are, then wehave a  big problem, andwe do. Surveillance is outof control and needs to beput in check. I hope that mywork helps restructure the imbalance of power betweenthose who surveil and those who are subjected to it.NH: In your opinion, where are we heading concerningprivacy issues? I think weve already passed the stage ofMinority Report movie.Adam: I think were now heading towards a scenario like Mi-chael Douglas experiences in the movie The Game, wherehe becomes trapped in a world of precisely engineeredexperiences. Right now this is taking shape online whentopics from email discussion and search queries infect youradvertisements and suggest videos for you to watch. Youronline experience becomes curated by yourself but it alsotraps you. Soon this will spill over into the physical world.If we dont stand up for privacy rights now and fight forwhats been lost during the last decade, then we only havea bigger battle to fight next year.NH: Thank you.The problem is thatthe people who areposting their data andexpressing themselvesonline cant see who isin the room listening tothem when they speak.Big data & privacy
  • 57. Trendbook 201357Users want to have a choice.Just ask them!Katarzyna Szymielewiczlawyer; co-founder and CEO of Panoptykon Foundation, which deals with the human rights protection in surveillance societyFor something thats supposed to be in decline, it triggersquite a lot of controversy. The debate on whether we stillhave the right to privacy in the digital world, and if so - howit should be guaranteed - has not died down, but is enteringa decisive phase instead. The fact that we have increasinglyless online privacy is more than obvious. However, neitherthe lawmakers nor the users are sure whether this trendshould continue any more.Bruce Schneier, a guru in the field of cryptography andon-line security, has recently, written that the Internet isBig data & privacy
  • 58. Trendbook 201358a surveillance state. Traceability of our behaviour, combi-ning data from the offline and online, worlds, generatingdetailed predictive profiles, meticulous processing of our"digital dandruff" into significant and valuable data – allthis is already unprecedented and still growing. There is noturning back from technological progress. Whats more,the deposits of private information are also accessed bygovernments, including authoritarian regimes. And theycertainly do not intend to give up their privileges.What do the users themselves think about it? They votewith their feet and choose the communication servicesoffered by major providers; they migrate to the servers ofa few leading firms, enabling them to control the vast ma-jority of on-line traffic. People go to places where they canfully participate in social life - this is our nature. This doesnot mean that we are comfortable while under coercion ofthe "pay us with your privacy, or go somewhere else" kind.The studies conducted for over several years now show thatpeople want to control the second life of their data and feeluncomfortable when left with no choice. According to theEurobarometer, as much as 72% of Internet users fear thatthey reveal too much personal information and feel thatthey can’t fully control this data. Another study, conductedby Ovum in the U.S., showed that 68% of Internet users wo-uld choose the "do-not-track" option to limit the use of theirpersonal data if such a tool was readily available. However,only 14% of respondents believe that on-line companiesare fair to them when it comes to the processing of theirpersonal data.It is not surprising since the vast majority of ISPs now usethe standards aimed at swindling users out of the maximumamount of information, not necessarily in an explicit way.Being up-to-date with the constantly changing settings andprivacy policies is a challenge even for a lawyer who specia-lises in this field. The so-called "average user" usually givesup after the first try. This problem has been noticed by theEuropean Commission, and more specifically, the Commis-sioner Viviane Reding, who last year submitted a proposal tomodernise the regulationson the protection of per-sonal data. The regulationis to be applicable throug-hout the European Union,and also to cover all thosewho offer their services tothe Europeans or monitortheir online activity, inclu-ding the U.S. companies.Reding argues that thisstep is not only caused bythe need to adapt the law to the rapidly changing Inter-net service market and to a greater privacy protection. TheEuropean Commission is convinced that, due to uniformregulations, companies will gain fair competition, certaintyas to the law, and - most importantly - bigger trust of theirusers, who will finally feel safe in this market.The fact that the Commission may be right this time is con-firmed by the moves of some of the companies that chooseto "escape forward" and make their business approach pri-vacy-friendly. ​​Such move was made by Microsoft, which haschanged the default settings in Internet Explorer (version10) to “Do Not Track.” Moreover, the “do not track” appro-ach is not alien to Mozilla, which has been offering Firefoxadd-ons to enhance privacy protection (Cookie Controller,BetterPrivacy, RequestPolicy, etc.) or to make users aware ofthe scale of tracking (excellent Collussion).Maybe that will make marketers understand that, in thisway, they have a chance to win a growing number of custo-mers who are fed up with playing the "privacy settings"game and are searching for services based on the respectfor their information autonomy. In a nutshell, they want tohave an actual choice and are ready to pay for this luxury).People go to placeswhere they can fullyparticipate in sociallife - this is our nature.This does not mean thatwe are comfortablewhile under coercionof the "pay us withyour privacy, or gosomewhere else" kind.Big data & privacy
  • 59. Trendbook 201359Humanisationof machines– when machines think for usToday’s technology is a lot different than it used to be. Devices are gaining a new,human dimension – they are intuitive, intelligent, and finally – no longer silent.These are exactly the features we would like to see in them. Intel reveals that 25%of users would like to be able to talk with a vending machine.
  • 60. Trendbook 201360About the trendAlready in the early 1990s, Mark Weiser predicted that theera of personal computers will be followed by the era ofthe so-called calm technology - one that blends into thebackground of our lives, becomes unnoticeable, doesn’trequire our attention or increased awareness to use it. Whatwe are seeing today is almost an exponential growth (in allareas and aspects of our lives) in the number of truly smartdevices, which absolve us of the responsibility to think. Fromthe (marketing) perspective of this report, the humanisa-tion of machines seems to be of particular interest espe-cially in the area of trade. It is clearly visible that, as a resultof technological progress (including software for remotedevice management, intelligent character recognition, orcontactless payments) and consumer expectations, tradeis undergoing a transformation.According to the Smart Vending Survey, commissioned byIntel and conducted in October 2012 in eleven countries(including Poland) by Redshift Research, one quarter (25%)of the respondents would like to operate a vending ma-chine using speech, while 17% would like to have a two--way dialogue with the machine. In addition to interactivity,consumers expect vending machines to have more socialfeatures. Almost two thirds of the respondents would liketo get discounts for loyalty (62%), 38% would like to seethe reviews and recommendations of other users, and 30%would like to set personal preferences in the machines theyuse regularly. Finally, consumers expect that future machi-nes will offer not only products but services too. More thanhalf (55%) would be happy with the possibility of chargingtheir phones. Another desirable feature would be free Wi-Fi(54%), and the ability to print from memory cards (50%).Furthermore, more than one third (38%) would like to paywirelessly with their smartphones.What we can expect in the nearest future is that vendingmachines will definitely mushroom. Not only will theydispense just about anything (including pizza, seafood, un-derwear, or even personalised welcome banners for ourloved ones who’ve just come home from their holidays),but they will also engage the consumer in a physical contact(today, there are vending machines which you have to hugor smile at to get the product).Accompanying trends:Internet of Things, the nanosecond culture, Lazy GenerationReasons behind the trendFirst of all, as human beings, it is only natural that we tendto humanise inanimate objects, i.e. to ascribe emotions,personality, and character to different machines ad devi-ces, particularly to those which we use every day. Hence,it is no wonder that we treat personal computers, vendingmachines, and other devices important to us as if they wereliving creatures.Second of all, technological progress,excessive amounts of informationand data, and living in the so-callednanosecond culture (i.e. in a per-petual rush, always running out oftime) all mean that what we expectfrom new technologies is functiona-lity and time-saving features. As a result, provided that it’spossible, we give up independent thinking/decision-making/contemplating/analysing and outsource these time-consu-ming mental activities to devices. Ray Kurzweil predicts thatin terms of reasoning powers, machines will have equalledhumans by 2029.Key wordsvending 3.0,digital retail,ubicomputing,the age of calmtechnologyHumanisation of machines
  • 61. Trendbook 201361Examples of the trendDevices which do ‘the thinking’ for us are applied in virtuallyevery industry. For example, the pharmaceutical companySanofi Aventis has recently introduced to the U.S. marketa special drug packaging for people at risk of anaphylaxis.It has a built-in panic button. Whenever it’s necessary totake the drug, pressing the panic button makes the pa-ckaging tell us exactly how the drug should be applied.As part of the pilot programme in 2012 in Chorzów, theVälkky smart device was installed near pedestrian crossingsin order to improve pedestrian safety. The way it works issimple. When a pedestrian is approaching the crossing,a sensor detects his presence and automatically activatesthe LEDs embedded in the device located on both sides ofthe street. The LEDs begin to flash with intense white andblue light. These lights are seen by drivers from a distanceof 50 m (in poor visibility) to over 200 m. This way, driverscan notice the pedestrians which are in the crossing zoneearly enough. The research shows that Välkky reduces thedriving speed by an average of 4-5%, which in turn coulddecrease the number of pedestrian crossing accidents upto 20%. What is more, at this years CES I had the chance toadmire hapiFORK, an electronic fork that analyses how weeat and vibrates in our hand whenever we’re eating too fast(this is to prevent the problems associated with weight gainand poor digestion). Another wonder device is SimSensei,which, using the Kinect technology and analysing our facialexpression, is able to say with 90% accuracy whether weare suffering from depression.However, as regards the category of smart vending machi-nes, the list is almost endless. In June last year, Lays intro-duced a special machine in Argentina with potatoes as thecurrency. After inserting a potato into the machine, the usercould watch a video showing the entire process from rawToday’s vending machines are not only smart, but they offer virtually anything, from pizza to chilled underwear. In the photo: Bikefixtation- a machine with bike parts.Source: german.fansshare.comHumanisation of machines
  • 62. Trendbook 201362potato to a Lay’s chip. Just before the endof the video, the machine warmed a bagof chips that it popped into the consumer’shands so that he was under the impressionthat the whole process took place insidethe machine. Within 3 months, more than80,000 people interacted with the Lay’svending machine. The brand Fantastic De-lites installed a machine in Australia thatgives away free snacks if someone pressesthe red button 100, 500, 1000, and x times.Another way to get a snack is by standingon one leg in front of the machine, by dan-cing, or kneeling and paying it a tribute.The Polish Humanitarian Action (PAH) iscurrently running a fundraiser event for thepurposes related to its activities, using theso-called Can Machine. A person throws anempty soda can into the machine, and thenchooses one area of PAH’s activity that themoney from recycling his can should go to(there are 3 areas to choose from). In ad-dition, everyone can increase the value oftheir donation by watching an ad about theaction’s sponsor. In September 2012, Coca--Cola unveiled its latest vending machinethat offers NFC technology for contactlesspayments, an interactive touchscreen, a QRcodes scanner for customers with coupons,and an option of photographing yourselfwith a bottle of Coca-Cola and publishingthe photo on the selected social platform.It should be noted that smart vending ma-chines are an inherent element of the veryvigorous, parallel trend known as digitalretail - as part of it, shops are increasinglyfeaturing interactive shop windows, virtualfitting rooms, touchscreens, user-recogni-tion technologies, etc. It is even predictedthat traditional cash registers will be su-pplanted by tablets (it has already happe-ned in the New York-based chain Barneys,and Wal-Mart is testing the Scan&Go appwhich allows you to scan products whileshopping). As a result, the digital signagecategory is shifting into intelligent signage.In Poland, the solutions in this category areAn example of Polish solutions. The cha-rity vending machine – the user throwsan empty can into the machine, and thenchooses one area of PAH’s activity thatthe money from recycling his can shouldgo to (there are 3 areas to choose from).Agency: Saatchi&SaatchiModern devices are really smart, i.e. they think for us. The photo shows a fork which starts to vibrate when we’re eating too fast.Humanisation of machines
  • 63. Trendbook 201363Each device has/may have a built-in electronic brain - a microprocessor, invisible to us. It is thanks to these miniature brains that the world we live intoday is really smart.Source: Intelbeing tested by the Żabka chain of grocery shops (usingIntel technology).Applying the trend in marketing solutionsFirst of all, providing the user with solutions that make hislife easier and save his time. It is possible mainly owing tothe fact that a smart device is learning our behaviour whilewe’re using it (e.g. a bracelet developed by Frog - which isalso our tube card - is synchronised with the timetable.Not only does it know if our train is late, but it offers usinformation on the next arriving trains and an estimatedtime of changing trains if we choose our most frequentedlines.) The usability of such solutions doesn’t only concernthe products themselves, but also marketing activities. Therestaurant Red Tomato Pizza in Dubai offers its customersa fridge magnet in the shape of a pizza box - pressing itautomatically sends our pizza order to the restaurant. Ad-ditionally, thanks to geolocation, the content of the orderis allocated to a specific address.Second of all, having and using the product in any placeconvenient for the user – it’s especially visible in the caseof vending machines. Not only do they offer a variety ofproducts and services (as opposed to the past, when it wasonly drinks and snacks), but there’s also a growing tendencyto put them in a multitude of places – for instance, the minivending machines (called taxi treats) have been installed inNew York’s cabs.Humanisation of machines
  • 64. Trendbook 201364Humanisation of machines
  • 65. Trendbook 201365A construction furnished withan electronic brain - the new faceof vending machinesArkadiusz HruszowiecBusiness Development Manager at IntelFor a long time now, we’ve been watching the burgeoningmarket trend of combining the functionality of traditio-nal vending machines with interactive kiosks. Today, thisnew category of devices is equipped with a range of othertechnologies which allow operators to offer a wide array ofservices to both consumers and companies whose productsthese devices dispense.This state-of-the-art group of vending machines equippedwith digital signage (interactive screen) is able to suc-cessfully draw customers and then engage them in intera-ction via touch, gestures, or voice (the so-called perceptualcomputing). This form of human-machine interaction isbecoming increasingly convenient, easy, and, above all,more engaging to the user, which translates into higher salesfigures. A contemporary "smart" vending machine is ableto understand the context in which it is located (location,Humanisation of machines
  • 66. Trendbook 201366the demographics of a person standing in front of it, we-ather, etc.), thanks to which it is able to adapt the form ofinteraction and the way of communicating the content toa specific customer and to his needs in real time.Engaging a vending machine user is one thing. Another plusrelates to the rewards that the operators of such machinesare reaping of applying such cutting-edge technologies.New solutions allow them to gather demographic dataabout customers (gender, age, buying habits, or for howlong and where they focus their eyes when they’re looking atthe screen), manage this data effectively, and ensure safety.In the world where the number of computer viruses andhackings into computer networks is on the rise, the issueof on-line safety is especially important, both in terms ofpayment and the content displayed on the screen.In fact, we’re dealing with computing devices with highcomputing powers, which is necessary to simultaneouslyhandle the visually appealing content displayed to the user,to record the demographic user analysis in real-time, and tosupport security functions and monitor their effectiveness– which is a crucial factor for the operators of intelligentmachines.One perfect example of the new-generation vending machi-nes is the coffee machine developed by Costa (owner of thecoffeeheaven chain in Po-land) in cooperation withIntel. It stimulates five hu-man senses. Its huge intera-ctive touchscreen displayscompelling content thatcan attract the consumer,and then, using its intuitiveinterface, the machine pre-pares his favourite coffee ina convenient and harmonious way. The very process ofchoosing your coffee is a pleasant form of entertainmentitself. While “brewing” your coffee, the machine is playingcafé noises in the background and giving off a fragrant smellof coffee blends composed and prepared by major perfumecompanies. The device itself is enclosed in an aesthetic casedesigned by the creators of Ferrari. This example perfectlyillustrates the path the industry is following. From a gizmohidden in a dark corner of a shopping centre, to an eye--catching machine that interacts with the customer, usingits electronic brain and the advanced algorithms of artificialintelligence to that end.New form of human-machine interaction isbecoming increasinglyconvenient, easy,and, above all, moreengaging to the user,which translates intohigher sales figures.Humanisation of machines
  • 67. Trendbook 201367Hybrid world– the world with no bordersIn 2011, so not that long ago, I said that there are two worlds, on-line and off-line,between which the user is constantly switching over. Today, these two worlds aregone. They’ve merged into one – the hybrid world.
  • 68. Trendbook 201368Hybrid worldThe trendThe world we’re living in now is different from the one wehad last year. It has been labelled as the hybrid world, be-cause its actually hard to discern where the border betweenthe on-line and off-line worlds exactly lies. In the hybridworld, our location does not matter - we can control the on--line world, being off-line (e.g. Googles Ingress, game, whichis played on a smartphone, but to accumulate the energyrequired to accomplish a mission, you need to go to thecity – the missions take place around historic monuments,memorials, and other public places). And vice versa – wecan control the off-line via the on-line (it underlies the entiretrend of the Internet of Things - using our smartphone, wecan remotely control all our home devices, turn on/off thelight, vacuum, set the washing machine, etc.). In the longterm, this leads to a situation where the space around usis a kind of interface, and we ourselves become... sensors(see Copenhagen Wheel – where a special sensor attachedto a bicycle we ride every day collects information on airpollution, traffic congestion, etc., and sends it to the widelyavailable database).Reasons behind the trendDissemination of new technologies among users, includingRFID, NFC, GPS, augmented reality, or visual search. People’sdependence on new technologies, information, and Internetaccess. The increasing smartphone penetration and mobileInternet usage. An overwhelming need to control the worldaround us.Accompanying trends:Internet of Things, wearable computersExamples of the trendIn addition to the above Google’s game Ingress and Co-penhagen Wheel, lately we could see a lot of references tothe hybrid world in marketing moves. Last years CannesLions Festival awarded the Ariel Fashion Shoot campaign –through their computers, users could control a robot placedat Stockholm Central station. The idea was to use the robotto shoot and stain moving white clothes in order to winthem. Stained clothes were then washed in Ariel powderand sent to the person who had managed to hit them. Otherbrands, including Allianz (Allianz Live Frog – the task was tohelp a virtual frog cross the real street – see the video) andMitsubishi (the opportunity ofa test drive in a real car and realspace, the only difference beingthat the car was controlled viathe Internet, by a person sittingat home in front of a computer screen), also engage in si-milar campaigns.One of the most interesting actions was the campaign byBMW in New York in January this year. The brand decidedto display electric BMW cars in a shop window, called BMWiWindow. Each car was modelled on a car passing by. Theconversion took place in real time thanks to a motion de-tector and digital projection.Moreover, the hybrid world trend includes the increasinglypopular phenomenon of spotted (an anonymous announ-cement posted on Facebook by someone who saw a girl/boy they liked on a bus, for example, but couldn’t musterup enough courage to approach them in the real world).Applying the trend in marketing solutionsFrom the above examples, we could gather that the hybridKey wordsphygital,on-off
  • 69. Trendbook 201369world in marketing merely serves to provide consumers withnew and exciting experiences. Naturally, fun is important,but these solutions in fact offer many practical applications,including:• payments – Kelloggs has launched the so-called TweetShop – it exists off-line, but you pay with on-line currencyin the form of tweets. This February, American Express tea-med up with Twitter to launch the system called "pay bytweet" - if an AmEx user syncs his credit card with Twitter,he can pay for his shopping by tweeting purchase hash-tags;• making purchase decisions easier – The C&A brand postedits collection of clothes on its Facebook profile; of courseusers could like them. Then, the brand put the number oflikes for each item on hangers in a brick-and-mortar shopso that the customers entering the shop knew how manypeople liked a particular garment;• building a community – Like It Box which is sold on thePolish market, uses RFID technology to enable users to likea Facebook page of a brand during an event in the off-lineworld.The hybrid world also includes the phenomenon of theso-called multitude of screens – due to the presence ofconnected home appliances, everyday we’re dealing notwith 3 or 5, but at least a dozen or so screens. On each ofthese screens, a coherent commercial can be displayed –we can see a juice ad on the fridge screen, on the washingmachine screen (we find out that it leaves no stains), on ourphone (it’s adjusted to our current location), and on the TVscreen (smartTV can learn our behaviour and thus suggestcontent and recommend products we might be interestedin). Something similar is already offered by such brands asSamsung, though it’s seen only in highly advanced marketsat the moment.Copenhagen Wheel is a device that transforms an urban bike into a real broadcasting station. In real time, it sends information on the city’scurrent air pollution level or traffic jams.Designed by MIT Senseable City LabPhoto credit: Max TomasinelliHybrid world
  • 70. Trendbook 201370Do hybrid systems have a marketingpotential?Witold KempaCEO at Netizens digital innovation houseWhen my deliberations on the hybrid world were still ata nascent stage, it occurred to me: why not share my im-pressions from the CeBIT 2013 right away? Provided we allagree that CeBIT is one of Europe’s leading trade fairs ontechnology and innovation, the hunters and connoisseursof everything that “bricks and clicks” must have been overthe moon with this years edition as it was a real feast in-deed. The expo showcased countless applications of de-vices and systems that exchanged their information withonline databases in real time. What particularly drew myattention was a prototype solution developed by one ofGerman universities (it obtained financial aid from Adidas).The idea was based on using six kinect-type installationsarranged in three columns. A user who was standing beforethe device was scanned and his picture was converted intoa 3D avatar. In a flash, the system scanned and generated anavatar which then appeared in a skilfully-designed virtualfitting-room equipped with the wall-display system. A spe-cial algorithm left the avatar undressed... OK, not to worry,I didn’t mean stark naked. This allowed the user to swiftlyHybrid world
  • 71. Trendbook 201371try on “himself” entire collections of clothes available inthe on-line database. Trying on so many clothes in a moretraditional way would probably take a few hours in a fittingroom at the least.Why did I choose this particular example? Its easy. Like noother solution, it answers the question of where this trendcame from and what’s its latent potential is. The main thingunderlying the development of hybrid world is the availabletechnology. Gesture-controlled installations or the systemsof image tracking and analysis have put a very dangerousweapon in the hands of retailers and marketers – a weaponthey once could only dream of. An avatar once put on an SDcard can be used both in on-line and off-line shops with vir-tual fitting rooms. You’re asking what for? Well, to be able topick three items out of fifty we’ve tried on and have enoughtime to talk our choices through with a shopping assistant.I’ll venture even further – now that we’ve got virtual fittingrooms, maybe it’s also a good place for target advertising?The ad content might be, in this case, adjusted to the timewhen a customer visited a shop, to avatar features (age,sex), etc. It’s a win-win – one place embraces benefits forboth e-commerce and advertising.The marketing trend called operations in a hybrid worldwouldn’t have emerged if it weren’t for the ubiquitous mi-niaturisation and universal Internet access. I don’t think I’llsurprise anyone mentioning at this point a regular mobilephone turning into a smartphone. A TV with a camera andaccess to on-line apps is already a cliché too. But...a lightbulb? With Wi-Fi? Smartphone-controlled? Have you heardof it? Anybody who has ever forgotten to turn off the lightsin the house and who knows that doing it remotely usinga smartphone would be ‘kind of awesome,’ knows whatI’m talking about.Do hybrid systems have marketing potential? You bet theydo! Let’s take the above light bulbs with Wi-Fi. Equippedwith the right kind of software, such light bulbs could becontrolled even by a Facebook app – the video streamingwill show the desired effect. To me, it’s a marketing goldmine – acting locally in the off-line world, you could geta huge range in the virtual world. As of now, such instal-lations are no longer a pipe-dream. We had a chance tocheck it for ourselves during the netizen Christmas event“Wielka walka na śnieżki” (The Big Snowball Fight). Anyonewith the Internet connection, from any corner of the globe,could control a little snowball cannon placed in our officeand fire Styrofoam snow(styro)balls.The question arises – which advertising agency will provideus with such hybrid solutions and such an innovative line ofthought? The answer seems difficult, but everything startswith the collaboration between creative directors and en-gineers. That’s why – oyez! you, marketers! – look for theagencies with Research&Development departments, whosejob is adopting new technologies and implementing theminto the world of marketingcommunications. The goodnews is that Poland is notso far behind. The presen-tation of Touch&Take atCeBIT in Hannover deve-loped in the firm I’m wor-king for immediately metwith the interest of manypeople, including a Chinesephotographer.The hybrid world is alsothe real world having a vivid dialogue with virtual reality.Here’s another university-based project – simple glasseswith Augmented Reality which track the man’s work (theimplementation of a training sequence with the productionmachine) and informs about the correct sequence ofactions. A solution straight from Minority Report? It’s al-ready our reality.Thanks to technology and R&D departments, the abovesolutions are already viable and being implemented in thereal world. Image, content, and message are becoming fullybi-directional and interactive. They are being developedhere and now, influenced by a consumer and his decisions.Technology has given customers powerful tools for autopresentation, and furnished marketers with possibilities ofanalysing data and influencing the message where onlysky is the limit. The dynamic development of creative en-gineering will bring us interactive media of two-way mar-keting communications which will automatically respondto an identified user. It will be constantly collecting andcreating analytic data, which will be immediately used bymarketing departments to adjust their message and contentto the user. In the near future, marketing budgets will haveto be optimised and that will happen for the first time inthe history of advertising.Look for theagencies withResearch&Developmentdepartments, whosejob is adopting newtechnologies andimplementing theminto the world ofmarketingcommunications.Hybrid world
  • 72. Trendbook 201372Phygital – how to mix bricks withclicks?Wojciech DrewczyńskiProject Manager at Agency Jamel Interactive, author of the blog about hi-tech innovations wicu.plEvery day, brands are looking for unique solutions designedto attract new customers to use their products and services.Nowadays, one of the most effective weapons in the fightfor a customer is combining the digital with the physical.After all, there is nothing better for building user engage-ment than using new technologies, the effects of which arevisible in the real world.Having made a decision to enter the "phygital," first wehave to analyse the goal we want to achieve and what valuea potential consumer will find in it. This will have a hugeimpact on our strategy choice. Whether we’re going to builda single device that processes all the signals sent by users orto equip a larger number of our customers with such deviceswill influence the budget for our project.Another important step on our way is considering the qu-estion of where the user will perform an action that willtrigger a reaction in the second world. Choosing online oroffline to be the place where the interaction starts will forceus to choose the direction for the communication betweena man, technology, and the real world. It will always bepossible to achieve the goal in two ways.Hybrid world
  • 73. Trendbook 201373Once we know what we want, and what will be the flow ofinformation will be, we can select the type of detector thatwill start the entire process. It will determine the input datathat our system receives. At the moment, the most populardetectors include:• Camera –perfect for reading images and two-dimensionalcodes, or for using face and object recognition technology.The latter solution has been successfully used in the service"Facedeals," which identifies users entering a particularplace and gives them discount coupons. The camera canalso be used to present the output data such as photos,videos, or augmented reality. The Polish game ShootARperfectly illustrates how the potential of this device canbe used;• Near field communication (NFC) – a form of radio com-munication commonly used in the latest generation ofsmartphones. It enables data exchange between devices ata distance up to 20 cm. With these solutions, it is possibleto open doors without using keys or perform contactlesstransactions using a phone;• RFID – just like NFC, it enables distance, non-contact com-munication, but here it’s possible even up to a few me-ters. This technology was used in the KarmaTech shoes,for instance. In locations where the antenna was put, theshoes made it possible to post tweets or engage in socialnetworking with other users. In Poland, RFID is used by Likeit box, which provides special bands to promote a varietyof events;• GPS – it allows to detect the users or object’s location.Examples of using GPS sensors can be observed in mobilegames such as Ingress or Place Challenge. Geolocation willalso help you to conduct your business in a more efficientway, which is perfectly illustrated by Google Maps Coordi-nate;• Internet application – it is used to check whether the userhas engage in used a particular function that you haveprogrammed. It can be integrated with different kinds ofAPI. Like-o-matic, the feeder developed in Jamel Intera-ctive used the "Like" button to scatter the next handfulof bird food. C&A put the number of Facebook “likes” onshop hangers to present the information on how popularparticular clothes are;• Microphone – t can be used not only to record sound, butalso to determine to which sounds the sensor should react.Zazum uses this solution to detect audio codes embeddedin video broadcasts and to make purchases of productsvisible on the screen;• Motion detector – detects the user’s physical activity wit-hout using a camera;• Touch – a great way to control physical sensors and touch-screens. One of the most interesting ways of using touchto promote products was implemented by Coca Cola.The company has created a vending machine which gavea free can of soda to anyone who hugged it;• Devices that use the user’s natural interface – he com-bination of a camera, microphone, motion detector anddistance detector - most widely used in Kinect devices.Virtually any device from which we are able to capture a sig-nal can make a good sensor. Asthmapolis uses for this pur-pose an inhaler equipped with Bluetooth, Adidas miCoachuses a sensor located on a training outfit, Elektrobibliotekaemploys a paper book connected to a computer via USB,while Mojio has a device that can be plugged into the OBDport located in our car. Most solutions use a combinationof two or more sensors.After receiving the signal sent by the user, a sensor interpretsit and sends the data to the application that, in turn, willtrigger a reaction. In the case when the achievement of thatresult is mediated by an electronic device, e.g. an engine,an LCD display, a motion detector, etc., it’s worth using suchhardware as Arduino, which is designed to support mic-rocontrollers. This solution is relatively cost-effective andenables us to create a code in several different programminglanguages​​. In this way, our application will be able to controlvarious devices.Rewarding the user for completing his task is the last stageof our work. The form of the reward depends only on us.Creativity of certain companies when it comes to “phygital”is truly astonishing. A LED bulb glowing in the rhythm of themusic that’s playing on your phone? Why not. This is how"LIFX" works. A bottle with which you can send a messageto your fellow merrymakers? Sounds great. All the fans ofMedea Spirits know it. A dice that will show the number ofpips on a tablet? These things happen in "Dice +." Examplesmight be multiplied indefinitely.With a good idea, you can prepare a great brick and clicksolution for virtually every industry and every product.Technology is only a means to an end. The bottom line isto create a real value for the consumer that will make himact. As for the rest – he has to see for himself.Hybrid world
  • 74. Trendbook 201374Quo vadis,homodigitalus?
  • 75. Trendbook 201375Quo vadis, homo digitalus?Tadeusz ŻórawskiCEO at Universal McCannMany thanks to Dorota Reykowska for the inspiration and invaluable comments.Each year in Poland is hailed the year of the mobile, and,traditionally at the end of each year, the title is called off onlyto state that the year of the mobile still hasn’t come. Butdespite all this, more than half of Poles have access to theInternet; a lot of them are buying smartphones, computers,digital TVs, and PlayStation. The digital world has gatheredwide popular usership. What has become of us – people – asa result of all this? Well, what is happening with the humanrace is both good and bad. Below are several points in whichI’ll try to synthesise these phenomena.Quo vadis, homo digitalus?
  • 76. Trendbook 201376ADHD and ADD are taking their toll.According to the World Health Organization, more than 35million people suffered from ADHD in 2011 alone. Doctors arealso increasingly starting to diagnose ADD – Attention DeficitDisorder, which derives from the inability to focus attention.At business conferences, I often witness the following scene:while a conference host is starting with the greetings andthe agenda, people are...looking for wi-fi. Such ubiquitousmultitasking often stems from the fact that we don’t want- or maybe we are no longer able to? - concentrate on onesingle activity. During presentations, most people cannotfocus for longer than 3.5 minutes. Does it really stem fromour short attention span, or maybe we are just becomingbored with the activities which we have done so far withoutinterrupting them with multi-tasking? Actually, it’s both. Ho-wever, it is true that our attention escapes to areas which wefind more engaging than what we’re doing at the moment.Human brain contains the organ called – nucleus accumbens.Its significance was emphasised by Martin Lindstrom in hiswork Buyology, and earlier by American scientists publishingin such magazines as Scientific American Mind. Nucleus ac-cumbens is our pleasure centre. In simple terms, it is con-nected to three spheres – emotional, rational, and motor. Itguides us through our actions so as we can derive as muchpleasure as possible from what we’re doing – here and now.Naturally, if we visualise, here and now, the future benefitsof something that we’re temporarily engaged in and thatis not pleasant for us, but we know we will benefit from itin the long run, we decide to do it, but only with the visionof reaping the rewards in the future. If, for instance, we goto a university, what drives us is the things we can achievethanks to our prospective university degree. If we study atthe management-related faculty, we show up to classesevery day and visualise ourselves sitting in the CEO’s chair,earning a decent salary, doing a rewarding job, and havingan interesting, high-society circle of friends. Our nucleusaccumbens keeps us from skipping classes or dropping outof college. We even start to feel better, coming to lecturesevery day, interacting with a group of university peers, andalready feeling that we are one of the chosen few. Hence,the nucleus does not object. If, however, one lecture turnsout to be particularly challenging and optional, which me-ans it doesn’t end with an exam, the pleasure centre of moststudents will lead them to a uni canteen or some other placewhere they can have a much better time. Those who decideto stay and listen to the lecture must genuinely want to stay,often due to individual reasons. Maybe someone finds thisknowledge useful or is truly interested in the subject.In marketing communications too, understanding the sig-nificance of nucleus prevents people from wasting money.For example, if you are the producer of medical prepara-tions which help people quit smoking, you should knowthat, in most cases, using persuasive, rational slogans ofthe “Smoking kills” type will not necessarily guarantee anysuccess. You should also know why that is. Such slogansare placed on all cigarette packs, which are successfullysold by the tobacco industry. When do people have a realchance of kicking the habit? If they find a replacement ple-asure stronger than smo-king a cigarette – here andnow. Only then will theyquit smoking. What isalso important is the factthat nucleus is connectedto the emotional, motor,and rational sphere. This isexactly the order in whichthey should be taken intoconsideration. First, smokers must find a replacement for anemotional pleasure. Moreover, many of them are aware thatthey have to keep their hands busy when they cannot reachfor a ciggie anymore. Some time ago, there was a fad forspecial gadgets which did the trick. Only when the nucleusis satisfied motor-wise is it possible for rational argumentsto have their say – we start to think that smoking is trulyharmful. This way and with emotional pride, a reformedsmoker talks about how giving up smoking has improvedhis health, sense of smell and taste, his bodily fitness, andso on, and so forth. If his nucleus hadn’t been activated, hewould still be a smoker, despite his awareness that it’s badfor him. This is how habits work.Why am I writing about all this here? To warn all those whohave problems with focusing their attention for a long timeand with doing without digital devices. Electronics mightbecome your habit. Many people (the stats keep changing,but remain high) use their phones to check their e-mails ormessages on social networks before they even crawl out oftheir beds in the morning. Restaurant tables are adornedwith all sorts of mobile phones, and many of us, more or lesssurreptitiously, check our phones while in a meeting withother, “real” people. Wireless Internet has become a fixturein restaurants. It means that we believe more interestingstimuli will reach us from our phone than from anotherhuman being. But it doesn’t have to be so.It often turns out that making an effort, activating our natu-ral curiosity, and the willingness to listen and talk is enoughto notice that a conversation with another person mightbring much more unique information than checking ourmobile phone status. But whose decision is it? Our nucleusaccumbens has to make that decision. People who know thatQuo vadis, homo digitalus?Nucleus accumbensis our pleasure centre.It guides us throughour actions so as wecan derive as muchpleasure as possiblefrom what we’re doing– here and now.
  • 77. Trendbook 201377Quo vadis, homo digitalus?talking to others and putting their phone away will bringthem more pleasure simply do it. However, those who arenot aware of this find it difficult to part with their mobileseven just for a while – they maintain a conversation, buteach time they receive too few stimuli, they reach back fortheir “leash.” Maybe this text will make someone realisethat he does exactly the same thing – and maybe it willmake them understand why. It may also turn out that weare diehard fans of the benefits brought by smartphones,tablets, and the increasingly omnipresent access to the on--line world. This is also true. Such benefits do exist. Maybeour interlocutor during a restaurant dinner is such a borethat no matter how hard we tried, we wouldn’t derive anypleasure from such interaction, certainly no bigger thanfrom interacting with a smartphone. It might also be thecase, and I’ll address it later. What is important for us isbeing cognizant of what happens to us and other people,and why. Certainly, one positive thing is that...The digital world is conducive to intellectual self-realisa-tionUndoubtedly, the modern world provides us with endlessopportunities to fulfil the power of our intellect. A novelistno longer has to spend arduous hours writing with a quillas it was the case in the past. His fingers no longer have toendure the pain of pressing the keys of a traditional, statio-nary typewriter – a giant, cumbersome contraption whosetype bars used to get jammed all the time. Now, thanks toour fantastic keyboards, which are becoming increasinglyergonomic, to the point of being touch-controlled, the mancan convey his thoughts with less effort and from almostany location. A musician may immediately record his newcomposition, using a suitable app and singing to his smartp-hone. Not to mention scientists, chess players, architects, oreven managers, whose life might become much easier – itall depends on whether they use technology to their ownbenefit or act like sheep and become its slaves. There isresearch which proves that playing computer, PlayStation,or smartphone games boosts your creativity and intellect.The results vary for different game types – it depends onwhether a game really stimulates our development or is onlya way to kill time. It depends on whether we actually usethe abilities gained in the course of playing a game in otherdomains of the real world, or fall into the habit of playing forplaying’s sake. Analysing the top games, it is clear that theirclue is not wisdom – and the players themselves admit it.However, it is sure that even if the game is not particularlysmart, it gives us pleasure and stimulates endorphins, dopa-mine, and serotonin, which in turn energises us to engage inother tasks and makes us succeed in intellectual challenges.Sadly, it is often the case that technology is driven by pe-ople whose main job is not to develop our intellect, but todevour our time. Winning the consumer’s time is crucialas thanks to this he can be persuaded by an advertisementand pulled away from other activities, including other com-munication channels that could show him a competitor’sad. Hence, there is money here. If the battle is fought forthe consumer’s time which he devotes to a specific chan-nel, technology developers take advantage of this in orderto give the consumer asmuch fun as possible, andoften to evoke his feeling ofdiscontent once he aban-dons these channels. If weare not active on social ne-tworking sites for a coupleof days, they send us an e--mail with a caring messagesaying that it’s been a fewdays since we last logged in, and our friends X, Y, and Z haveposted something (meaning: it is certainly something in-teresting and you will miss out if you don’t check it outnow). Some time ago, social psychologists published ruleson how to influence people. In the world of new technolo-gies, knowing these rules is particularly important. As statedby the leading portals 15 years ago - competition is just oneclick away. This is why familiarity with the above rules andthe experience of those who can give us advice on how touse them is of much greater significance now because itchanges the blind fight with fence boards into a masterful,precise swordplay. And that brings us to the fact that...‘Big data’ exists – but the question which often remains ishow to make the most of it?The term and the realm of big data bring one major problem.The field is reluctant to talk about it out loud, but it comesup in more private conversations. The digital world allowsyou to get a lot of information about its users. Some of themget terrified or even paranoid, deleting their information orfearing that they will be used against them. Indeed, yourcredit card number unwisely entered into an unsecuredlocation may be the cause of theft. However, the leadingbanks are equally aware of such threats, and even if wehave been careless, they will call us to suggest blocking thecard if its details leaked and got into the wrong hands. Thisprevents both banks and customers from losing importantdata or money. Credit card transactions provide customerswith the security to the extent that if, for example, we buya trip paying with our card and a travel agency goes bellyup, we can claim a refund from the card issuer.Sadly, it is often thecase that technologyis driven by peoplewhose main job isnot to develop ourintellect, but todevour our time.
  • 78. Trendbook 201378Quo vadis, homo digitalus?It is most often the case, however, that such data as e-mailaddresses, demographics, or personal interests are collec-ted from us...and not always fully utilised. Indeed, socialnetworking platforms know about us a lot – but advertisersmay still define their target group as those aged 20-49, withaverage and higher incomes, living in cities, interested intravelling. Such criteria may be satisfied by both MartynaWojciechowska (transl. note – a well-known Polish journa-list and traveller) and a mother of two who’s seeking the bestdeal for idle, all-inclusive holidays in Egypt. The psychograp-hies of these two women can vary considerably, and whatreally motivates their purchase is sometimes beyond thescope of marketers’ analyses. That is why the effectivenessof the lion’s share of e-mail marketing does not exceed a fewper cent, even though it’s theoretically the most personalform of contact with the client. The same goes for the clickthrough rate of ads. Of course, we know that an adverti-sement, even if it hasn’t been clicked, leaves some kind oftrace in the form of brand awareness, but sometimes thisawareness can be a lifetime thing, but we still won’t buyanything from this brand. This calls for analysing the awa-reness of brand features, preferably at a level beyond meredeclarations, and their convergence with the features whichare the most important to a particular user.A unique opportunity is provided by a cause-and-effect ana-lysis – what prompted the consumer to make a purchase,what had happened to him right before and much earlier.Unfortunately, without knowing the rudiments of psycho-logy, analysts and marketers often have no idea where tolook and what to combine. The data are there, but thereare too many to know which results from what. This is notalways a direct action of the “I saw the ad, I bought theproduct” kind. Quite the contrary, it may be the case thatI saw the ad, I didn’t buy the product, and I’m fed up withthe ad. Increasingly, app manufacturers scare the user withads in free lite apps, thus encouraging them to buy an add--free pro version for a small price.Big data not always goes hand in hand with deep thinking.Experts in both of these areas often function quite separa-tely - data analysts know what they have access to, but donot display any interest in the humanities, while humanitiesspecialists are not enough interested in data analysis and thedigital world to investigate what could be obtained from thisinformation. Digital companies often don’t even considerhiring the latter; nor do they treat them seriously in therecruitment process. This, in turn, is a sign of somethingthat the field researchers refer to as...A crisis of deep thinkingAn interesting article has been recently published, titled HowBusy People Find Time to Think Deeply (by Ben Casnocha).The author encourages busy people to keep a cool head andfind time for doing nothing in particular, which might proveto be an excellent opportunity to do some thinking. Just as inthe first point, it often happens here that the business worldis especially inclined to fall into the trap of Catch-22 - tech-nologies allow us to do various things faster, but it does notmean we are able to find more time to think; it only meansthat we have time to do more things. I once heard a jokeabout the workers whowere carrying a wheelbar-row back and forth. An out-side observer pointed outone important detail: thewheelbarrow was empty.Astonished, he asked whythe workers were pushingthe empty wheelbarrow toand fro. They said, “see, weare too busy to reload.” Ina sense, this is the paradoxof the need to be constan-tly available. Natalia hasmentioned the no-mobile--phobia phenomenon, thefear that one day we mightforget to take our mobilephone with us and leave itat home. Would anythingbad happen if we did? Theanswer is exactly what cer-tain people are starting tobe afraid of. It has happe-ned to me a few times - I left my phone at home. Guilty ascharged. Indeed, it was a pain, and yes, of course I had toapologise to a few callers for my lack of availability on thatday. But, generally, sometimes we have to fly on board theplane for a few or several hours, during which we cannotconnect with the world. This situation, however, doesn’tseem to make us feel as uncomfortable.Checking an e-mail is generally a  prevalent activity intoday’s companies, and a lot of time is spent on it. Is thesame amount of time devoted to thinking? This is whatBen Casnocha is driving at in his article. I once overhearda recruiter talking about a candidate he’s just interviewed,“She’s great. She said she’s addicted to her Blackberry. That’sgreat – we’ll be able to reach her any time.” The problemwas that the position the woman was applying for was veryimportant, somewhat conceptual, and her creativity andproblem-solving skills should have been more vital than herBig data not alwaysgoes hand in hand withdeep thinking. Expertsin both of these areasoften function quiteseparately - dataanalysts know whatthey have access to,but do not displayany interest in thehumanities, whilehumanities specialistsare not enoughinterested in dataanalysis and the digitalworld to investigatewhat could beobtained from thisinformation.
  • 79. Trendbook 201379Quo vadis, homo digitalus?readiness to check e-mails regularly. Paradoxically, severalyears ago – in the age of faxes and letters - this routineactivity was one of the secretarial duties, and required secre-taries to use a sieve and decide which mail goes to the bossand which doesn’t. Meanwhile, modern companies demandmore availability rather than deep thinking. Hence, firmswhich implement genuinely ground-breaking innovationsin their fields are few and far between. The exceptions arefar better off than the majority.So, why is it that employees are becoming increasingly focu-sed on checking their inboxes rather than on allocating theirtime to think? There are three answers. Firstly, the feeling ofanxiety that something important might come along, likea business opportunity, and they might miss it; secondly, thefear that a failure to check their e-mail might be deemed asnegligence – it’s easy to assess an employee on that, whileit’s difficult to assess him on his deep thinking skills; thirdly,plain convenience - it’s much easier to check and respond toe-mails than to get down to a new task and to deep thinking,which we are not even sure will bring any results.The first reason I mentioned is associated with the pheno-menon intensified by the advancement of digital world andnew technologies, not only in business. It’s our growing...Impatience – decreased tolerance of timeEvery now and then, I meet people with impressive businessexperience. One of my friends, the long-standing director ofa foreign advertising agency, who started his professionalcareer in 1970, told me that around the time he had startedworking, a normal pace was to shoot new commercialsduring the course of four to six months. Out of the questiontoday. He said, “when my friends tell me what is happeningnow, I can see that the problems are the same, it’s the de-adlines that have changed.”Despite technological development, our brain doesn’tchange that rapidly. It has been more or less the same forcenturies – accustomed to governing the body in a way sothat we wake up in the morning, stay active throughoutthe day, and rest at night. Naturally, our brain has alwaysbeen and will always be impatient. The nucleus accumbens,taking care of our pleasures here and now, hates waiting fordeferred gratification. While shopping on-line, it’s importantto us to get the things delivered within a couple of days.Having bought something on the Internet, a client wantsto receive an order confirmation and the information onwhat’s happening to the product and when it’s going tobe delivered (it has been confirmed by many e-commerceworkers).As a result, our patience is at an all-time low. Not so long ago,it was normal that in order to transfer money, you had to goto the bank. Now, most of us can do it immediately with ourphones or computers. Customer service lines are also 24/7.We are used to thinking that this gives us control over thesituation. We don’t want to wait. If there was a commercialadvertising a bank whose lines are available 22/7, we wouldconsider it ridiculous. In the meantime, most of us hardlyever call the bank between 3 and 5 a.m., and it’s probablynot necessary for banks to have their lines open at thesehours. But what would ourimpatient customers say!?Impatience fuels the urgeto satisfy needs imme-diately. We are gettingincreasingly incapable ofdeferring gratification.Meanwhile, as shown bypsychological experiments,it’s frequently not the im-patient ones that succeedin life. Some time ago, therewere experiments conduc-ted on children which pre-sented them with a toughchoice: either they get onepiece of candy (a marsh-mallow) which they can eat immediately, or they can savethe marshmallow for later, be in the same room with it,and wait patiently for another one. Some children ate theirmarshmallow right away; some managed to overcome theirimpatience and got the well-earned reward. The kids wereobserved for a number of years. As it turned out, those whowaited for the second marshmallow turned out to be moresuccessful in life than the impatient ones.Naturally, shorter waiting time means progress and deve-lopment. It allows us to get what we want faster. Nevert-heless, we must notice the point at which we’re becomingslaves to our own impatience. Responding immediately toother people’s messages and expecting others to do thesame means a much shorter communication cycle. The qu-estion remains if we find time to think our answers through,find time to contemplate, and to “reload the wheelbarrow.”There is no doubt that marketers deliberately take advan-tage of the impatience of consumers and users of the digitalworld. Some time ago, peer-to-peer platforms which allo-wed us to download certain materials (abused by bootleg-gers, but that’s another story) worked in two modes: a freemode, in which you had to wait until the downloadingstarted, and a fee-based mode, in which you could startdownloading instantaneously.The same undying popularity is enjoyed by all the systemsDespite technologicaldevelopment, ourbrain doesn’t changethat rapidly. It hasbeen more or less thesame for centuries– accustomed togoverning the bodyin a way so thatwe wake up in themorning, stay activethroughout the day,and rest at night.
  • 80. Trendbook 201380Quo vadis, homo digitalus?of the instant messenger type, both in smartphones andin computers. We want to have a fast, continuous contactwith many people. Is this contact a meaningful one? Thedigitalisation of the world surely leads to...A shift in the nature of the relations between peopleIn the past, whenever we wanted to know how our friendswere, we had to meet up with them face-to-face or callthem. In many cases today, however, it’s enough to just login to a social networking site and read their most recentposts – we will know everything without even asking. Weassume that silence means nothing interesting is going onin a particular person’s life right now. We no longer have tomeet the whole bunch of friends we have – social networkscreate an illusion of keeping in touch with all of them.Our messages are getting more and more succinct. Bloggingused to be in fashion once; now it has been replaced withmicroblogging. A Twitter post must not exceed 140 charac-ters. It’s even less than the standard length of the first shorttext messages. If a Facebook or LinkedIn post is longer thanthe specified number of signs, only the first few lines willbe visible, and those interested in the rest will have to click“see more.” Simplicity is what we’re aiming at, but moreand more often simplicity is tantamount to superficiality.For instance, in one of the recent episodes of the Voice ofPoland talent show, there appeared a new element – parti-cipants are to tweet while the previously shot episode is onair. Looking at these posts, it’s clearly visible that all of themare...similar. It is often the case with other social networkingsites and their users.On the other hand, however, social networking platformsmight help in overcoming shyness and interacting withothers. They sometimes replace small talk, so problematic tomany people. Some time ago, Facebook games were perfectexamples of how we could approach someone without ha-ving to resort to a difficult, or perhaps trivial, habit of strikingup a conversation. Digital world helps people become moreopen to others. For centuries, people have found it easierto convey something very personal or difficult in writingrather than in speech, face to face. Smartphones, tablets,or computers allow for a much more frequent exchange ofa written word – this way is much easier.Unfortunately, such opportunities of virtual contacts oftendebilitate our real-life activities. I remember one funny storytold by a blogger writing under the name of WawrzyniecPrusky. It was about a real-life meeting of a group of peoplewho had first met via an on-line messenger. Despite theirearlier lively message exchange in the virtual world, themeeting face-to-face was a big flop. Silence prevailed. Theybrought the meeting to a halt and couldn’t wait to get backto their virtual chats.Internet, computers,smartphones, tablets – theyall gather a lot of informa-tion, both widely availableand those concerning ourprivate data. Therefore,what we’re witnessing isthe increasing...Limitation of human me-mory, whose significanceis grossly underestimated20 years ago, I used to remember all my friends’ phonenumbers. That was the easiest way. Thanks to storing themin my memory, I wasn’t dependent on carrying my addressbook with me all the time. Back then, telephones didn’t storeinformation. In the case of public phones, in particular, youhad to fend for yourself. Phone books didn’t provide fullinformation.Meanwhile, now I am able to recall five or so telephonenumbers. Why remember more? After all, I’ve got them allin my phone and Outlook.In the past, schools used to make students learn many factsby heart. It is still the case in our country – the educationalsystem in Poland seems to have missed the information andIT revolution. Students’ attitude to the memorising of dates,events, facts, or book quotes is of genuine astonishment –why memorise it if it’s all googleable?It turns out, unfortunately, that with that attitude, we’rejust scoring our own goal. Initially, we were delighted withthe fact that virtually anything could be found on-line andstored on a computer, smartphone, or tablet. However, it alldebilitates our memorising capacities. Memory works bestwhen assisted by an emotional charge – we’ll remembersomething provided it’s truly important to us emotionally.It has been confirmed by experts dealing with memory pro-cesses and by such phenomena as the so-called flashbulbmemory effect – we might not remember what we weredoing on September 2, 2001, but the majority of us has nodifficulty recalling what we were doing and where we weredoing it nine days later, on September 11, when we heardthe news about the planes hijacked by terrorists crashinginto buildings in the USA.Human memory is astonishingly capacious. Once our emo-tions are truly active and aid the memorising process, weare capable of remembering a virtually unlimited numberof events for many years. If, however, we are not motivatedenough, nothing will come out of our efforts at memorisingthings – as in “why learn different languages if we are able toHuman memoryis astonishinglycapacious. Once ouremotions are trulyactive and aid thememorising process,we are capableof rememberinga virtually unlimitednumber of events formany years.
  • 81. Trendbook 201381Quo vadis, homo digitalus?communicate in English everywhere,” “why learn geographyand the names of capital cities if we can search-engineanything anytime,” “why overload our memory if we canchoose not to burden our brain with redundant details.”Memory can and should be trained. Not so long ago, thereappeared an article entitled Why Your Memory Matters MoreThan Your Experience by Colin Shaw. The answer to the que-stion posed in the title is simple – because if our memory iswell-trained, we can learn new things quickly and efficiently.People whose memorizing skills are poor and who have onlyexperiences will remain mentally stuck in the past.Memory is a vital element of success in both professionaland private life. Computers have something called workingmemory. In our life, this type of memory is particularly im-portant. Let’s imagine that we’re participating in businessnegotiations – if we can’t remember anything, then what?We’ll be forced to look at our notes and previous documentsall the time. Even if that’s possible, there’s no denying thatthe more information we have in our head, the better, sincewe can efficiently refer to them during our negotiations, andassociate the piece of information we memorised earlierwith the new one.When it comes to one’s personal life, I don’t think I have toexplain what happens if we fail to remember about thingswhich are important to our loved ones. They feel ignoredand irrelevant. And not everything is smartphone-storable.The more we remember and can refer to while talking withothers without any assistance, the better our relations withother people will be.
  • 82. Trendbook 201382Natalia HatalskaExpert in non-traditional communication methods, trendwatcher, blogger.A graduate of the University of Gdansk and Poznan University of Economics. As a scholar of the prestigious Joseph ConradScholarship program also studied at the London Business School, UK. In 2005-2009 head of communication department inWirtualna Polska (second biggest portal in Poland, part of Orange Group). Previously, PR Manager at NIVEA Poland and YoungDigital Planet. Currently working with the media house Universal McCann as Chief Inspiration Officer. Originator ofaward-winning campaigns based on non-traditional communication methods. Member of the jury in the advertising andpromotional contests such as Polish Advertising Competition KTR, Media Trendy Competition, YC Eurobest,Blog of the Year,Superbrands, CMO of the Year. Member of Creative Communication Cluster. Member of the Board of Experts ThinkTank Polska.Columnist at Sukces magazine.Author of http://hatalska.com blog about non-traditional advertising recognized as one of 10 the most influential blogs in Poland.About the author
  • 83. Trendbook 201383Strategic Partner Edition PartnerTrendBook 2013 translated by:TurboTranslations.com - fast, professional online translations 24/7.Graphic DesignMarianna Wybieralskawww.4panny.plSyd Breslauerwww.sydbreslauer.com© Natalia Hatalska, May 2013The report is available on the Creative Commons licence:Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Generic (CC BY-NC-ND 2.5)