5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]


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This report analyses the five most striking trends which I believe we’ll have to face this year, such as Internet of things, wearable computer, big data and privacy issues, humanisation of machines and hybrid world.
Trends are commented on by many well-known experts from all over the world, including Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow, Director, Interaction and Experience Research, Intel, Lidia Geringer de Oedenberg, Treasurer in the European Parliament; Zuzanna Skalska, Head of Trends at VanBerlo; Chris Cobb and John McHale, Creative Directors at Sapient Nitro, New York-based artist Adam Harvey; Jan Rezab, CEO at Socialbakers; Miles Lewis, Vice-President at Shazam and Borys Musielak, creator of Filmaster.TV.

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5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]

  1. 1. Trendbook 20131 Trend book 2013 Strategic Partner Edition Partner Internet of Things Kiedy firmy wiedzą o nas więcej niż my sami, czyli big data i prywatność W przypadku tzw. big data nie chodzi tylko o ogrom informacji, które gene- rujemy. Bardziej istotne są dwie inne kwestie. Pierwsza – że marketerzy mają do dyspozycji tzw. nieustruktury- zowane dane. Druga – że konsumenci mają świadomość postępującej utraty prywatności. Big data & privacy Humanisation of machines Hybrid world Quo vadis, homo digitalus? Wearable computers
  2. 2. Trendbook 20132 I am deeply thankful to Intel Polska - the Strategic Partner of TrendBook 2013 – for their fantastic, incredibly substantive, and fruitful cooperation. It is thanks to this cooperation that I had the opportunity to attend the 2013 International CES in January, which, by the way, is where the final shape of this year’s TrendBook formed in my head. Intel supported me with their knowledge, reports, and data in all the areas I am writing about this year. There is no denying that when it comes to such phenomena as the Internet of things, smart world, or the humanisation of machines, you will not find a more competent and reliable partner than Intel - the technological leader in such solutions. I would also like to thank the Polish branch of Universal McCann - the Partner of this Edition - for the help and content-related support in all the fields in which I try to translate new technologies into marketing solutions. A final bow of gratitude goes out to all the experts commenting on the trends in this year’s issue of TrendBook for their time and willingness to share their experience and expertise.
  3. 3. Trendbook 20133 Introduction I have been wondering lately how it is that I devote so much space to new technologies. After all, my main area of interest is still non-traditional advertising, broadly defined marketing communications, and new trends. I was quite astonished to learn that in March Piotr Stasiak, who works for Ringier Axel Springer Polska and is responsible for the development of Newsweek.pl and Forbes.pl, mentioned my blog at Press among the ones where he reads about new technologies (alongside such blogs as Antyweb or Spidersweb). In January, thanks to my collaboration with Intel Polska (the Strategic Partner of TrendBook 2013), I went to this year’s International CES – the world’s largest trade show on new technologies. For two years, I had been following what had been going on at this event and had repeatedly referred to the CES news in my speeches and blog posts. However, I still doubted whether this event was the right place for me. Luckily, my doubts proved to be groundless, and as it turned out, I was not the only represen- tative of the media and advertising industry there. The event caused the biggest advertising agencies, media houses, and the media itself to come to Vegas for the show. And it is in Vegas where the TrendBook 2013’s first shape formed in my head. Take the above and add to that the Gartner forecast saying that by 2017, a marketing executive is expected to spend more money on IT solutions than an IT executive himself, and eve- rything makes perfect sense. Modern marketing has undoub- tedly changed. Its future is inextricably intertwined with the cutting-edge technological developments and – more than we would wish - with data analysis, unstructured data in par- ticular. Advertising agencies, including the ones in Poland, are looking for people with skills in new technology development and implementation. It is more and more common that in a team responsible for a campaign, an IT specialist is just as essential as a creative director and copywriter. Therefore, it is no wonder that, writing about non-traditional campaigns, I also refer to recent technolo- gies, and that they are the topic to which TrendBook 2013 is en- tirely devoted. Traditionally, this year’s Trend- Book again focuses on five trends; however, for the first time they all revolve around one key theme – the Internet. Nevertheless, this is not the Internet as we came to know it, whether wire-provided or on our mobile device. It is about the Internet which is ubiquitous. I deeply believe that, while dealing with the third wave of the Internet – the so-called Internet of things – we are gradually approaching the post-mobile era. For this reason, the watchword of TrendBook 2013 is the sentence I heard during one of the panels at this year’s CES, “Stop talking about smartphones and start talking about the connected world.” I wish you a good read and a lot of inspiration. Natalia Hatalska Gdańsk, May 2013 According to the Gartner forecast by 2017 a marketing executive is expected to spend more money on IT solutions than an IT executive himself.
  4. 4. Trendbook 20134 Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  5. 5. Trendbook 20135 Social media clutter There is no denying that 2012 was the year when people, both in Poland and worldwide, stopped associating social media with Facebook only. As reflected in the June com- score report, Pinterest was the fastest-growing social-ne- tworking website last year (the YoY growth of +4000% - see Figure 1). Tere was also an upward trend for Instagram, snapped up by Facebook in the first half of the year for roughly $1 billion. Another hot topic was Google+, which, according to the December data from Global Web Index, is now the second most popular global social platform (see Figure 2). Western experts are starting to voice the opi- nion that young Internet users are becoming bored with Figure 1 Pinterest users (000) in the period March 2011 to May 2012. Pinterest was the fastest-growing social network site as of last year. Source: Comscore, June 2012 Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  6. 6. Trendbook 20136 Thinking about the Internet, which of the following have you ever done? Figure 2 There has been a marked rise in using Twitter in Poland. Source: Wave 6: Biznes w społecznościach, Universal McCann, November 2012 start my own blog upload photos to a photo sharing site (e.g. flickr.com) upload a video to a platform like YouTube watch video clips on video platforms use instant messengers use a microblogging service visit a forum create a profile in a new social networking site manage a profile in an existing social networking site Figure 3 Total Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram users in Poland in the period January 2010 to January 2013 Source: Megapanel PBI/Gemius instagram.com pinterest.com twitter.com Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  7. 7. Trendbook 20137 Figure 4 The scope of Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram among Polish users in the period January 2010 to January 2013 Source: Megapanel PBI/Gemius instagram.com pinterest.com twitter.com Facebook, which has been muscled out by Instagram and Snapchat. At this year’s CES Consumer Panel, not one panellist (aged 18-24) mentioned Facebook among their favourite social networks (the top two being Tumblr and Twitter). The Wave 6: Biznes w społecznościach report (the Polish edition of Wave 6: The Business of Social), published by UM in November 2012, says that Polish users are gradu- ally taking to Twitter – next to blogs and YouTube, Twitter is one of the three social media whose usership in Poland rocketed last year (see Figure 3). In the second half of 2012, Twitter was also the one to lead the way in terms of custom social media campaigns (see Top 10 applications of Twitter in custom advertising). According to the PBI (Polish Internet Research) data, the scope of Twitter, Pinterest, and Insta- gram among Polish Internet users in 2012 was 9.51%, 2.29%, and 2.5% respectively (see Figure 4 and 5). Jan Rezab, CEO, Socialbakers Over the last year we have seen an increasing number of brands using social media as a marketing and communications channel. When used properly, social me- dia provides a great platform for customer service and reaching new customers. However as brand presence has increased, it has become increasingly noisy and difficult for them to stand out. That s why it s im- portant to analyze impact and reach (amongst other things) to maximize the effect of your campaigns. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  8. 8. Trendbook 20138 Marcin Niewęgłowski Owner of OMG! PR, Socjomania.pl The goings-on of Facebook are starting to echo the NK case from a few years ago (transl. note – nk.pl is the Polish social networking site). Back then, there was a big com- motion that one Wroclaw-based portal was able to attract at least every other Polish Internet user to spend their on-line time roaming its pages. Sadly, it was all about the quantity, not quality, and it was too one-sided, not socially- -oriented enough. Certain solutions were designed and implemented, but they later proved fruitless. Users were inundated with ads and irrelevant messages, which drove them away in search of an alternative. As it turned out, this alternative was Facebook. It offered genuine (as far as it’s possible on-line) relations with friends. It was and still is the top reason for using Zuckerberg’s site. However, I get the impression that over the years Facebook’s social spirit has been slowly dying down. It has transformed from a social media into a money-obsessed media platform. I’m neither a financial analyst nor a stock exchange expert; therefore, it is not my place to say whether Facebook’s NASDAQ debut was a smart business move or not. What I know, however, is that it is eating Facebook from the in- side. Whenever there is news about its new developments or improvements, they mainly are to do with advertising. As of now, Facebook already provides several dozen mar- keting solutions, related not only to the display sphere (tra- ditional banner ads), but to e-mailing (paid messages from the profile level), RTB, or search engine use. And that’s not all - other ‘improvements’ are coming soon. Facebook wants to launch its affiliate network - an external ad platform that would use such elements as measuring buttons next to articles on websites. Another item in the basket of plan- ned novelties is an absurd option of promoting other users’ posts (no, not brands or fan pages) and their friends’ shares. Another addition is supposed to be rich media pop-up ads appearing in newsfeed (video materials). That means the seeds of pop-up solutions visible on other Internet portals will be planted in Facebook’s walled garden. And what’s looming on the horizon is the prospect of spreading these seeds to the mobile sphere. The worst thing is that Zuckerberg’s platform is slowly killing that which laid foundations of its creation – its social spirit. It is enough to look at the recent February Socialbakers report for Poland. Which posts engage users the most? Those of the “noughts and crosses" type. According to the last year’s survey conducted by Sterne Agee, users themselves have noticed the increase in the number of ads over the last se- veral months. Moreover, 60% of respondents stated that the significance, quality, and relevance of the content had deteriorated. In this context, there is one thing that strikes me. Considering the fact that Facebook itself has failed to attract a sufficient number of its members to vote on the changes to the site’s privacy and governance policies, the effectiveness of its marketing services remains a  big que- stion mark. Paradoxically, neither in Poland nor anywhere else in the world can we notice the trend of mass exodus from Fa- cebook. Two events would have to occur in order for that to happen. Firstly, Zuckerberg would have to, colloquially speaking, push his luck completely to make users aban- don him. That could be done by, for example, turning 50% of the newsfeed posts users get into ads. Secondly, a rival platform would have to give them something more useful and socially-oriented than what Facebook has to offer. It would have to be a fresh face of social networking evolution, catering for the current on-line media consumption needs. Though I’ve already warmed to Twitter, I do not expect it to thrive in Poland. Despite almost 2-million visitors per month, this microblogging platform seems a slightly more complicated form of social networking - not the average Facebook user’s cup of tea. However, for a long time now, I have been following the developmental path of other mic- roblogging platform in Poland - Tumblr. Today, it is visited by more than one million users in our country. In addition, it’s available in the Polish language version. While Twitter revolves around 140-character text-based messages, Tumblr runs in a similar vein but through photos and videos. It is said that the Polish membership base of LinkedIn is estimated at 4-5 million. What about YouTube and Google+? YouTube alone is unable to steal away Facebook users because it’s a platform of a slightly different type. In tandem with Go- ogle+, however, that could be possible. But for now, the social platform Google+ itself is not...social enough. To me, one thing is certain. After the Facebook era, which I believe will last until the end of 2014, we will witness the same sort of verticalisation that happened to Internet me- dia. Specialised, vertical networking sites addressed to a spe- cific market will come out on top. Over the years Facebook’s social spirit has been slowly dying down. It has transformed from a social media into a money-obsessed media platform. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  9. 9. Trendbook 20139 Social TV While I get a star for the accurate forecast when it comes to the first trend, in the case of social TV, however, the si- tuation is rather unclear. On the one hand, we had two Shazam-based campaigns in Poland (both in the motorcycle industry – Shazam was used by Mercedes and Nissan), and VoodooDance developed a 2nd screen platform for TVP1 (allowing interaction with the programmes/TV commercials in real time via a mobile phone/web site/FB application). But, on the other hand, social TV has not yet reached its tipping point here as it has in the West. The main reason seems to be the fact that, in Poland, we are still quite “attached to the wire” data, and that the most popular second screen application now is Twitter (still in the nascent stage in our country). Suffice it to look at the data on this year's Super Bowl - more than half of the spots aired in the ad breaks mentioned Twitter, and the event alone generated more than 24 million tweets. The strong position of Twitter in the category of social TV is also confirmed by the fact that in December 2012 Twitter signed an agreement with Nielsen to develop global standards for researching the phenomena of social TV. Mo- reover, in February 2013 Twitter acquired Bluefin Labs, a so- cial TV analytics company. With the increasing use of mobile devices (smartphones and tablets), we can expect that the social TV phenomenon will continue to spread (as stated in Nielsen reports, 70% of tablet users and 68% of smartphone owners have declared that they use these devices while watching TV). Another issue is that in 2013, according to LG reports (cited during the Second Screen Experiences panel at the CES 2013), 6 out of 10 TV buyers will choose a smart TV. Another obstacle is the nomenclature - social TV, 2nd screen, etc. – the respondents, including those in Poland, may not even be aware that they are, in fact, engaging in this type of activity (see Figure 5, 6, 7). Figure 5 Places where the content was uploaded during the EURO 2012 game between Poland and Greece Source: Brand24 Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  10. 10. Trendbook 201310 Figure 6 Devices used to upload the content during the EURO 2012 game between Poland and Greece Although the phenomenon of on-line commenting on what we see on TV is commonplace, we still remain very much “attached to the wire.” We comment mostly via our computers. With smartphones and tablets becoming more and more ubiquitous though, we can expect a gradual departure from using a computer. Source: Brand24 Figure 7 TV and social media viewer ratings for the EURO 2012 game between Poland and Russia What is striking is the fact that the social media activity doesn’t die down until about an hour after the game. It means that we turn the TV off, but are still commenting the event on social networking sites. Source: TV viewer ratings: AGB Nielsen Media Research for the 4+ group, based on the analysis provided by the Initiative me- dia house. The social media data: Brand24. The data is not comparable. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  11. 11. Trendbook 201311 Borys Musielak CEO of Filmaster.TV Social TV in Poland is virtually non-existent. We could use such platforms as the UK’s Zeebox or some integrated social elements in set-top boxes or applications of top television and cable networks. The managing of a Facebook profile of a TV show, which is what most content creators’ job boils down to, cannot be called “social TV.” Due to its limitations, Facebook is not an ideal platform for this type of activity anyway. For a genuinely social TV, we need three ingredients: • a foolproof mechanism for content discovery (personali- sed recommendations), • a straightforward way of content sharing (social element), • integration with the first screen (i.e. TV). An ideal social TV application should therefore be able to find us an interesting TV programme, make it possible for us to watch it, and then allow us to share the find with our friends (it is here where Facebook or Twitter comes into play as a distribution method). Such a platform, provided it is skillfully used by TV stations or cable television, can be a great new revenue generator thanks to such features as highly personalised content and highly personalised adver- tising messages. Let’s imagine an iPad application which "collects" the ads viewed by the user and archives those which are the most suited to his taste, creating a unique, custom-designed store with the most interesting sugge- stions. Shopping at this store would bring money to all links in the chain: an advertiser, television (as a distributor), and application provider. This could be a win-win-win-win situ- ation, with a client as the fourth winner as we’ve just made his life easier. And that's just one of the many methods of how to monetise the second screen applications. Cezary Otowski CTO, VoodooDance Our 2nd screen application, which we have prepared with TVP, works in a very simple way. During a fo- otball match, a  player guesses what is going to happen in the next 30 seconds, using a mobile phone application (Java, Android, iOS) or a computer (any website or Facebook). If he manages to pre- dict one of four possible options (goal, throw-in, foul, intercept), he is awarded points that count towards the ranking. Initially, the app was to be the key element of the competition organized by TVP during the Euro 2012 Championship. Ultimately, however, the television decided to go with the traditional SMS competition. Our application was still used to test the functionality and way of engaging the audience. The result was very positive - 27.6% of the players returned to play again during the following Euro 2012 match; 19.7% played at least three games in a row; the average playing time (including the guessing time only and excluding the time of starting the app) was 51 minutes; the maximum playing time throughout the championship was 19.5 hours. What we prepared was not only a very impressive and en- gaging application, but the entire system with which you can develop other configurable 2ndScreen apps. Along with TVP, we wanted to build on top of that and created another application: rules of the game were similar, but this time related to tennis and volleyball in the 2012 London Olym- pics. Unfortunately, we included the matches with Poles as participants, so the whole fun ended before it even began. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  12. 12. Trendbook 201312 „The future of social TV? It’s crystal ball gazing.” About potential of 2nd screen I talk with Miles Lewis, Vice President Advertising, Shazam Natalia Hatalska: What does social TV mean for you? Is it more about commenting in social media what’s happening on TV screen or is it more about using some special dedica- ted platform like Zeebox while watching TV? Miles Lewis: I think it really depends on the consumer, but also on the content of the programme, and you can’t al- ways pigeonhole into one area. What we do know is that consumers are wanting to get involved, they are wanting to have more of a relationship both with the programme they’re watching and the brands that they’re seeing. They like to comment, they like to get involved, and also they are very willing to have an extended relationship. So if they’ve been watching a 20-minute programme, they are desperate for maybe a glimpse of what’s gonna happen next week - many producers understand this and use the second screen Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  13. 13. Trendbook 201313 tokeep interest alive. And keeping the interest alive will keep the viewing figures up. You know, from a brand point of view, TV advertising is still very, very successful and key to reaching millions of consumers, but a 15- to 30-second TV spot is still unable to get the 100% cut-through that they are wishing, so, extending that conversation onto, let’s say, a mobile device is a very, very cost-effective way of exten- ding that messaging as well to extend engagement. So, it depends. It depends on what country, it depends on what users, and it depends on what is actually happening at that moment, with what content. NH: But during CES2013, this year in Vegas, on the panel Se- cond Screen Experiences some experts said that the main problem with the second screen now is that people are doing something that is not related to the content they are watching on TV. Do you perceive it in the same way, so they are chatting on Facebook and Twitter and they are not engaging with the content? Miles: I suppose, ultimately, it varies, again, on who’s saying what. We see an awful lot of our users who are engaging further with the content on the screen. Those who Shazam programming in the United States want more information about that programme that’s on the screen now. They want to find out about the actors, they want to find out about the products. They want to have more of an engagement. So it depends. We see many, many different usages, and sometimes that’s an ability where someone will tag a pro- gramme or an ad and then involve themselves 24 hours later. It happens because they don’t want to stop watching the programme, and they do want further engagement, so they’ll tag, and they’ll use it later on. So, yes and no. Again, I don’t think there is a right or wrong answer here, I think it depends on the consumer and their state of mind. NH: Well, you’ve mentioned something very interesting, tagging TV shows. Is it popular in the United States or in the United Kingdom? Miles: Our product has been launched in the United States and we have run one pilot programme here in the UK, but it’s popular. Yes, right now , millions of people are doing this. There is desire for more information and for engaging in that additional information in a time that is convenient for them, because consumers run mission control. It’s “I want more information about (US TV Show) Being Human, but I want to access that information on my commute in the morning.” NH: I remember that Shazam was founded in the United States but then they had to settle down in London because mobile phones usage was not so popular in the United Sta- tes at that time, and my question is: how is it now? Where are your revenues mainly from: Europe or the United States? Miles: Well, obviously, in terms of being a private company, I can’t quite divulge where revenues come from specifically, but actually we have 300 million users, we drive a 300 mil- lion dollars’ worth of music sales a year globally, because our core usage is still disco- vering and finding music. There’s also an in-app ad- vertising module, so glo- bally we put advertising marketing messages inside the app, and we sell those on a  country-by-country basis. But Shazam for TV is a very large and rapidly growing revenue stream as well. So there’s 3 pillars that are obvious ones. Rica: If I could just add to that really quickly, we were actually founded here in London because the mo- bile market was more mature than it was in the United States with how people used mobile, how they had alre- ady integrated it into their daily lives was a little bit more advanced. NH: You said Shazam for TV is a very large revenue stream, and on CES I heard that you were already running more than 200 advertising campaigns on the second screen. Could you tell me more about them? Miles: That figure is 200 plus campaigns we’ve run for ma- jor brands on the Shazam for TV platform. I think the most critical part here is that it’s not a separate app. The app that consumers use to engage with branded TV advertising that has the Shazam call-to-action on is exactly the same app you use for discovering music. And that’s the beauty of it. There’s no need to download a new app. So we work with hundreds of the world’s great forward-thinking brands, whether it’s from a financial service industry, through motor companies, to FMCGs, film and entertainment, and we work with a lot of TV advertising is still very successful and key to reaching millions of consumers, but a 30-second TV spot is still unable to get the 100% cut-through that they are wishing, so extending that conversation onto a mobile device is a very cost-effective way of extending that messaging as well to extend engagement. Which prediction for 2012 have come true?
  14. 14. Trendbook 201314 companies around the world. But from an American point of view, in North America, that has really been in existence for two years, to here which it’s been running for a year, to Australia, where it’s been running for three months. We have a lot of experience working in the second screen world. NH: So do you think that Shazam or other second-screen apps have the real potential to expand TV advertising? Miles: Absolutely. Let me give you an example. Here in the United Kingdom, 4.7 billion ads are seen every single day on TV. That’s 4.7 billion. So if you’re an advertiser, how on earth do you get cut-through? How on earth do you make sure that your ad is remembered? And in this day and age, when in the ad breaks it’s well known that Tweets and Facebook posts go out because they’re there, and everyone can see them, actually adding a Shazam enablement to TV adver- tising on a call out, saying “Shazam now for the full movie trailer” or “Shazam now for a test drive” or “Shazam now for a free product”, is a way to get that instant gratification of a consumer. And this is also a fantastic way of extending a 15-, 30-, 45-, or 60-second TV ad to over a three-and-a-half minutes of engagement which is on average what we get. Rica: One of the of the things that we did last year was an ad campaign with Sony Entertainment for Men in Black, and for a number of their movies, so that people in the United States when they used Shazam to tag the ad, they could find out what local theatres were showing Men in Black. They could use the app, tag the ad, and then it would come up with “Okay this movie is showing in these four theatres close to you, you can buy the tickets for it”, and so it’s all very, very simple, so all you had to do is just show up, you didn’t even have to stand in line, you could go and pick up your tickets and just walk on through. So it makes this type of transactions very, very simple and the fact that you have things like geolocation, you know, you don’t have to say “okay, I live in London, I live south of London, I live west of London,” you don’t have to dig in further and further, entering your post code, because it knows where you are. NH: Well, that’s really great example. Can you give me some more? Miles: Of course, we’ve obviously mentioned films because that’s the big category for us, but we’ve had drinks, we’ve had Diageo running with Smirnoff. We’ve had Lynx with a great campaign running here in the UK, that allowed you to Shazam ad for a chance to win a trip to space. We’ve worked with every single category and the most important part of it is “why would I, as a consumer, want to Shazam this TV ad?” And that’s how we work with the creative agencies as well as media to come up with a very compelling idea, and the earlier we get involved, the better. Because if a brand is gonna spend X millions of euros on shooting and producing a great TV ad, there has to be a payback from that, and they have to understand what they want consumers do after it. We can really add to that and amplify it. NH: So are advertisers happy with the results of the campa- igns? You know that it gave them some outcome. Or maybe they just testing it as a new form of advertising? Miles: I  think the biggest barometer for success is whether a client comes back and renews, and it’s very, very simple to look at one advertiser and say “yeah, we’ve run that, we’re not too sure”. But our renewal rate is strong, we’re running one campaign in Germany where we’re already on our third campaign, we have two clients in Australia now on their second campaign, so this is now becoming a behaviour, and that is really critical. NH: You said that the beauty of Shazam is that you can tag ads with the same app you tag music. And my question is as following. The producers believed that dedicated se- cond screen services like, Get Glue for example, will be the most popular. But it turned out that people prefer to use the media they know. So now they use Twitter mainly as thir second screen social service. Do you think this is the case? That while using second screen, you want to use apps that you know, and that you used before? Miles: Yes and no. There’s always an element of there being users who will want to get involved with Get Glue because it’s got a product feature they like or Zeebox because it’s got a product feature they like. But the fundamentals are that it’s about scale and we’re still human beings and we still have a certain amount of space in our heads to remember to use certain apps. So if you look at all of the apps avai- lable for programming, for separate stations, whether that station is iTV here in the UK or NBC, whatever it is, and then programmes related to programming, suddenly you can have over 1,500 apps on your iPhone to engage with this content. That becomes itself a problem. So, actually, where Shazam’s brilliance lies is that it’s already used ten million What is a “known known” is that this is the very start of this real shift. Where it’ll change and where it’ll shift – just no one knows. But what we do know is that consumers want simplicity. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  15. 15. Trendbook 201315 times a day and actually to make someone have saved time “Oh I can now interact with programming and advertising, fantastic, I haven’t got to download another app.” But, you know, that’s the easy part. There will be people who want to use another apps, but the fundamentals are that we get that huge cut-through and it makes it very, very simple for consumers, and consumers know and like simplicity. NH: So you mean that the main drivers of social TV are not only technological but also psychological? And the second question is – has it already reached a tipping point? In your country for example? Miles: Again, I think it’s a combination of so many different factors, but we know that music in the programming can drive Shazam usage. For example the Closing Ceremony of the London Olympics had a track by Kate Bush in it, and Kate Bush has been around for a long time, but there’s a whole generation of people who didn’t know what the track was, and we saw the most amazing amount of tags, people finding out via Shazam what that music was. So you could say that’s social TV, because something is running on the TV, I’m gonna find out what that music is and share it with my friends. And ultimately that’s a big, big driver of usage. At the same time people are tweeting, putting it on Facebook to talk about what they’re watching. So yes, there’s definitely a tipping point arriving. The question more than anything else is a whole sway of the population who aren’t necessarily wanting to get involved in all program- ming. Some programmes lean back, some programmes lean forward. Ultimately, there’s a lot of area where Shazam can cut through all this to tell you what the music is, to tell you more information about the brand, to tell you more information about the products. That all comes down to what the hook is and why someone would get involved in the first place. NH: So what’s the future of social TV? How do you think it will look in near future? Miles: It’s crystal ball gazing. What is a “known known” is that this is the very, very start of this real shift. Where it’ll change and where it’ll shift – just no one knows, but what we do know and what is a fact is that consumers want simplicity, they don’t need complex, because they have so much going on in their lives. Google has come out recently and said we pick up our phones one hun- dred fifty times a day. That’s a huge amount of checking our phone, so if you have some content on there, you can fill a two-minute gap in your day while you’re wai- ting for your train, that is a great scenario for us because those two minutes could be filled with some content. NH: And what about the privacy? For example, we can easily imagine situation that we exactly know what the consumer is watching in the third second of the show. Miles: Yes, I think from Shazam’s perspective, we are incre- dibly aware of privacy and we are very, very protective of our users’ identity, so all of the information we have is based on pure tag data and that is “someone, somewhere, today, in London has tagged a song”. We don’t know who it is, or anything about them, and neither will we ever, ever, ever want to find out. Because that’s privacy, you know, and the ultimate part of this is we have a very generalized data about our demographic brake down. No personal information is passed anywhere, so I think it’s incredibly important, and especially with the rise of more and more information about consumers that is out there, we have to be very, very careful and thus we are absolutely adamant that our consumers remain very anonymous. NH: Thank you. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  16. 16. Trendbook 201316 App overload Definitely one of the major trends – visible in Poland inso- far as allowed by smartphone penetration (according to TNS, it’s around 25%). Still, the numbers are awe-inspiring. As estimated by Antyweb, Polish users downloaded a to- tal of more than 40 million apps last October alone (iOS, Android, Windows). It should be added that users of these three particular systems differ from one another. As stated in the Isobar Mobile Polska report (there were two waves of the study: in 2010 and 2012; the data refer to Poland), Apple owners are the most active app downloaders (76% surf the Internet and 36% have downloaded an app), followed by Android users (63% - the Internet, 22% - applications) and the users of mobile Windows versions (69% - the Internet, 16% - applications). Poles are most eager to use those apps that allow them to extend a mobile phone’s communica- tion functions. That includes instant messengers (44%) and social networking sites (41%), but also utility applications which facilitate everyday activities (41%). In the context of this trend, it is worth quoting a catchphrase popular in the West, "for mobile devices think apps, not ads." An interesting example demonstrating this trend is Donation Box - a project developed last year by students at Miami Ad School. The concept is based on the premise that a user “drops” the apps he no longer uses into a special applica- tion - Donation Box. Next, the developer of these apps (e.g. Apple) donates their value to charity (see video). The industry crossword puzzle – an interesting initiative using QR codes, developed by JWT Poland The Fiat Street Evo campaign using the visual search technology. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  17. 17. Trendbook 201317 Point&Know, Point&Buy A few days after I published TrendBook 2012, featuring such technologies as Vuzix Smart Glasses and briefly mentioning Google Glass, Google set its project in motion. They were the ones to largely dominate the 2012 Point&Know trend, at least media-wise. On the other hand, practice shows that QR codes are still quite popular. Last year, we had a virtually infinite number of such campaigns both in the West and in Poland. One of the most interesting projects was Projekt Ingeborg in the Austrian city of Klagenfurt. As part of it, QR codes were scattered throughout Klagenfurt in 120 loca- tions, and you could use them to download books or music. Worthwhile Polish QR projects include the campaign of Piotr i Paweł (transl. note: Polish food store chain), developed in co-operation with AMS, during which the inhabitants of Poznań could shop directly from bus stops (more on the campaign in Błażej Patryna’s commentary – see p. 18). When it comes to visual search, however, it is definitely a techno- logy that has not yet reached a milestone. It has appeared in two campaigns which particularly drew my attention. One was made ​​by Adidas in Germany, where you could buy clothes directly from the store’s window by dragging- -and-dropping items to your phone (without scanning the code – see the movie) and the second one was the Fiat Street Evo campaign, where various pieces of information on the Evo model were "hidden" in road signs. Project Ingeborg in the city of Klagenfurt in Austria. The QR codes located in 120 places all over the city contained books and music files. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  18. 18. Trendbook 201318 Monika Mikowska Managing Partner at mobee dick, author of the blog jestem.mobi The phenomenon of app over- load did not end with the advent of 2013 – it is still with us. There is both supply and demand for mo- bile apps. In fact, this demand was at an all-time high last year. In ad- dition to the numbers mentioned by Natalia, it is worth recalling Apple's official press release from two months ago con- firming that there are 775,000 applications available in the App Store, which have been downloaded 40 billion times, with 20 billion in 2012 alone. It is predicted that in 2013 this record will be beaten. In Poland, smartphone penetration is getting bigger and bigger month by month, and Polish users’ awareness of what these devices can do is growing too, although much slower. Well-chosen mobile apps are a great way to expand this awareness. They are the tools which are eliminating an increasing number of everyday objects from our environment (from such obvious examples as an alarm clock, notepad, music player, torch, to more unusual - car keys, TV or computer remote control, cartoons for children, payment card, scanner, heart rate monitor, etc.). That is why both developers and marketers feel motivated to produce even more of them. 2013 will bring many new technologies whose production got underway last year. Nevertheless, I would like to emphasise two things. Firstly, brands cannot treat mobile applications as a new advertising format. While we are eager to download applications of practical value, we are rather reluctant to do the same with advertising or sponsored apps. Secondly, we should remember that the "mobile web" provides a wider range than "mobile apps." Analysing the experiences of Polish companies which offer both a mobile-optimised website and a mobile app, we know that the monthly number of unique users accessing a mobile website is higher than the total number of peo- ple who have downloaded the application. Just as the year 2012 was marked by a boom in mobile apps, so should 2013 be marked by a burgeoning fashion for making websites mobile-app-friendly. Błażej Patryn Internet Sales Executive, Piotr i Paweł In late 2012, we made the first cam- paign in Poland which allowed users to do their shopping directly from the street. It was labelled Uwolnij Czas. Przygotuj Telefon na Rewolucję (Free Your Time. Prepare your Phone for a Revolution). It was a joint research project of the Insti- tute of Logistics and Warehousing (ILiM), the Piotr i Paweł chain store, the KIP SA Transferuj.pl payment integrator, and the firm AMS SA. By the end of November, the citizens of Poznań and its surroundings could use smartphones, QR codes, and the mobile application RockPay to buy products in the "here and now" mode. Our data shows that people’s awareness of on-line grocery shopping is still at a relatively low level, although it is on a visible upward trend. Only a small group of people knows about the possibility of do- ing their grocery shopping with the use of a mobile phone. The goal we wanted to achieve was, most of all, building awareness of mobile shopping and presenting the oppor- tunities offered by mobile technologies. Another objective of the mKonsument project was to demonstrate that this sort of shopping is incredibly easy, fast, convenient, and, most importantly, safe. A key role in the project belongs to RockPay app. It allows a user to compile his shopping list and go through the entire payment process on his smartp- hone. The conclusions which we were able to draw after the campaign show that the visibility and role of QR codes in marketing communications is on the rise. This is also confirmed by the relative results on the number of scans as compared to the number of available locations with co- des. Smartphone users still treat these devices primarily as a tool for communication and experimentation. In order for the mobile ways of shopping and making payments in the "here and now" to become a well-established habit of Polish consumers, we still have a lot of awareness-building to do. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  19. 19. Trendbook 201319 Our body as the controller In Trendbook 2012, I focused on the voice, gesture, and touch control, but the reality turned out to be faster than predic- ted. Already last year, we could observe the increasing use of the technology that allows us to interact with a device using the mind as the only controlling tool. The examples can be seen today not only in the medical industry (mo- ving an artificial arm/leg lub a completely paralysed person communicating with a computer), but also in films, video games, children's toys, etc. Nowadays, it would be hard to grasp that a screen of any device is not a touch screen. The strength of this trend is additionally emphasised by the last year's premiere of the touchscreen-adapted Windows 8 system. By the way, I recommend the report published in 2012 by the IAB Polska: Przyszłość Internetu jest dotykowa (Touch is the Internet’s future). Reliability of the trends predicted for 2012 Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  20. 20. Trendbook 201320 „There are some things that we care about that haven't changed over the millennia.” Talking with Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow, Director, Interaction and Experience Research, Intel who is named one 100 Most Creative People in Business, inducted into the Women In Technology International (WITI) Hall of Fame and honored by the Anita Borg Institute as the 2013 Woman of Vision for Leadership. Natalia Hatalska: Last month, I had a presentation about how women use technology, and during this presenta- tion I was citing your research that there are some areas where women adapt technology faster than men and I was called 'sexist' because of that. Why is there such a strong stereotype that only men use technology and women are only interested in cooking, fashion and children? Genevieve Bell: The thing about all sorts of technology is that its adoption is dependent on what the technology is, Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  21. 21. Trendbook 201321 where it appeared, what it did, and who the population of adopters is. We know in some places technology is adopted by young people and in other places by people who can afford it. For example, looking at the introduction of cars, the first people that owned cars were people in their forties and fifties because they were the ones who had money. The first time mobile phones hit ubiquity in Japan, they were being adopted both by men in the workforce as well as teenagers. Different technologies have different appeal and have different barriers too, so sometimes they require a lot of time to set them up, they may require the kind of network connection that isn't available to everyone, they may require money, and lots of different things. We know that the arc of technology adoption had looked differently over time, but there are some things that are constant. Most technology that comes into the home, for instance, women are the ones who “tame” it. They make it domestic and safe. Although women didn't invent electricity, they were certainly the ones who worked out how to cook on it, how to clean with it, how to make clothes presentable. If you look at my colleagues in places like British Telecom, when they were studying the introduction of the telephone, it was women who answered the phone, it was women who made the vocal phone calls to check up on relatives and family, and do all of that kind of thing. We've seen in more recent years that different technologies have had different adoption too. Most e-readers, for instance, are owned by women, not men. Now, does that mean men are illiterate? No, but women use books as a way of relaxing, it also fits into a lifestyle that is in some ways overcommitted and time-poor. NH: You said that the adoption of technology is dependent on different factors, such as the cost of this technology, for example. Are there any specific psychological factors that are driving the technology adoption? Genevieve: Some technologies get adopted because they address pain points so they make our life easier, and so- metimes it's because we're told they make our life easier. Washing machines, refrigeration, those were technologies that we were told would make less washing and better food. Some people adopted them very quickly because they had money or because they were in some way seduced by those promises. Other people took longer. I don't think there's a consistent personality type that says you'll always be an earlier adopter of technology, and I'm not sure there's a con- sistent kind of population of people who are lagging. There are certainly some technologies that I think, over time, pe- ople worry about more, but worries change too. My great grandmother's generation in Australia are the ones who were young when electricity was introduced, and they were very frighte- ned of it since it was a scary thing – it made noises, it threatened to electrocute them. It wasn’t stable and controllable in the ways the previous technology had been, but by the time my great grandmother died when she was in her nineties, electricity was just part of her life, so I think it also changes over a course of a lifetime. Technology you were frightened of when you were a kid - you may not even think twice about it as a grown-up. NH: ’ll come back to those fears and worries of technology later on, and now I’d like to talk about ourselves as an aging generation. Certainly, the elderly use technology totally dif- ferently than young people. So how should we design this technology for our future selves? What it should look like? Genevieve: It's a good question. There are a couple of things to remember. My parents' generation, people that were born during World War II or right before/ after it, people in their sixties, seventies and eighties – you have to remember that this generation saw the adoption of mass-produced cars, television, VCRs, microwave ovens, mobile phones. Many of them were in their peak years in their jobs and their careers, and some of those technologies really took off. So some of them were actually grown ups when the technologies that were quite spectacularly life-changing appeared. So, in some ways, that cohort that we think of now as being old were actually incredibly kind of experimental in terms of their relationship to and with technology. It changed their workplaces, it was often part of their lives, it was certainly things they gave to their kids. In some ways, that's not surpri- sing when you look at what that cohort is doing, particularly in the days of the Internet. In the U.S. or Western Europe, people in their sixties and seventies are the fastest-growing group on Facebook and social networking sites. In the U.S, people in their fifties and sixties are the fastest-growing group on on-line dating sites. Because they’ve got empty nests, they’ve changed their relationships, they've left their partners, they've broken out of marriages, they're out dating again. I was just reading some data the other day that pe- ople in their forties and fifties are more likely to be sending sex-texts, so sexting, than people in their twenties. I think we sometimes sort of imagine “Oh, that cohort, they're old ...they're not doing very much,” but the reality is most The thing about all sorts of technology is that its adoption is dependent on what the technology is, where it appeared, what it did, and who the population of adopters is. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  22. 22. Trendbook 201322 cohorts that have gotten older are quite exposed to a lot of new technologies and have carried some of that desire to be involved in technology with them as they moved forward. We need to be very careful about not assuming that just because you're not a twenty-something means you don't use technology. And I want to push against that stereotype all the time. NH: Let’s talk about twenty-somethings then. In one of your previous interviews, you said that young people use techno- logy differently when their parents pay for it, and it's totally different when they have to pay by themselves. Can you comment more on that? Genevieve: Sure, I don’t know what it's like in Poland, but we had been doing work at that point which was in the U.S., Australia, and a couple of other places. When kids were still living at home, their parents were paying their mobile phone bills, providing the Internet to the house and so on. What we found was that when people started to have to pay their own bills, to pay for their mobile phones, data plans, Internet, they changed their usage behaviors. And that's not surprising. We know that what you do when you're newly married is different than what you do when you're single. And what is fascinating for me is that we sometimes sort of suggest that there are these generations and then we talk about Baby Boomers, Gen Y, Gen X, Millennials. I think those are powerful ideas, but it's also very clear to me that it is where you are in the stage of your life that seems to impact the decisions you make. A new parent who's 25 has a lot in common with a new parent who's forty. So, that kind of notion we have that the youth of today is using everything all the time was a bit like saying when someone goes to a restaurant with a buffet, they eat everything, and then when they have to pay for plates, they eat less. In some way, it was pretty obvious, but it was fascinating when we saw it happening. NH: I remember you also said that there is not one Internet, that there are lots of different Internets which adapt to platforms they use. Genevieve: Absolutely. NH: But it's not a very popular notion of the Internet. We rather tend to think about it as of something similar to elec- tricity. Something that is the same, that surrounds us. Genevieve: But even electricity is different in different co- untries. Different voltage, different plugs, different payment systems, different ideas about who should provide it and who should look after it and regulate it. The Internet is not dissimilar. How the Internet is provisioned in the United States is very different than in Australia or the UK. Everything from who are the service providers, is there a standard for the network traffic or speed, is there a standard for dow- nload speed versus upload speed, is there a requirement for parity, can you move anything on the Internet or there are some sites available and unavailable to you. We know that the Internet is not a seamless whole, where no matter where you are on the planet you would feel the same things in exactly the same way. And we know that what the Inter- net looks like and feels like on a mobile phone is probably very different than on a laptop. Partly because of architec- ture of information, partly because of the bandwidth, partly because of network availability, partly because we know people do different things on each one of those platforms. My argument historically has been that different platforms are animated by the Internet. When the Internet arrived on mobile phones, a couple of things became clear very quickly: number one was that having the entire of the Internet on a mobile phone wasn't how people used it. Apps were what they wanted, they wanted a particular thing – “tell me what restaurant is near me,” or “tell me how to get to the tube station.” It was very specific to where they were. NH: And what about the Internet of things? How will it change our experience? Genevieve: I think we're going to find out. Part of it is going to be that we're going to regard things differently when they're connected. If you're used to a street, a traffic light just being a traffic light, and now it's connected to a network of other traffic lights and it knows how the traffic pattern is working and goes green faster or stays red longer, we'll experience the road and driving in a very different way. NH: Some people even believe that we won't need traffic lights anymore because all the machines will be commu- nicating with each other. Genevieve: I think we'll always need traffic lights, not all cars will ever gonna be connected. Although when we think about smart cars in future, we can imagine that cars will talk to each other, not drivers, and that the cars will actually be gossiping about us, "she's a terrible driver, keep away from We need to be very careful about not assuming that just because you're not a twenty-something means you don't use technology. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  23. 23. Trendbook 201323 her.” But I think rather than this, it’s the case that we've never had world with a single Internet, it has always been lots of Internets. NH: Let’s dwell on the notion of cars chatting with them- selves for a little longer. Ray Kurzweil predicted that before 2030 computers’ reasoning will be the same as humans’. We can imagine that we will have widespread robots that will be doing all the work for us, and that we'll have time for resting, reading, or just for being bored. We should be happy about it. However, instead of being happy, we are extremely frightened. Why is it so? Genevieve: I think one of our anxieties about new techno- logy is precisely that we know – from the history of tech- nology – that it changes things. For many people, change is a scary thing. It means that what was once stable and known may become unstable. For lots of people, that moment of flux is hard to handle. When technology threatens to change a couple of things, I think we get very frightened. When it threatens our ideas about time and space, so electricity makes nights into days, trains that let us go hundreds of miles in a very short amount of time, it changes the way we think about the world and I think those technologies provoke anxiety because those are hard, conceptual chan- ges to make. Ultimately, I think what it's really about though is that a lot of new technologies make us have to think about what makes us distinctive. So, you mentioned singularity, I think one of the things people find very provoking and confrontational about Ray Kurzweil is that they listen to him and they hear him saying, “computers will replace people because will be able to replace the human brain.” I think for a lot of people, that notion is really scary. NH: Isn’t it a very similar situation to the one we had at the end of the 18th century when the Luddites were really afraid of the technology and machines they had in their factories? Genevieve: Yes, it is. I was giving the talk just this morning about where our fear comes from. One of the things I was arguing was that that period - the Luddites in England 200 years ago - and the notion of machines replacing us, along with the fear which that generated, has never gone away. It has these echoes that run through to the present day. While two hundred years ago what machinery threatened to do was replace our labour, and that was hugely important, now it threatens to replace our thinking, which is also really scary. What makes us different than everything else on the planet? It is our ability to reason, it's our cognitive power, and if you can outsource that to a machine, the question ultimately becomes - what are we worth? I think that sort of threat of value is partly where the fear comes from. NH: Is this threat justified? Genevieve: All fears are ultimately both rational and irra- tional. In the same way, you could say - is it reasonable to say "technology is all good," "technology will make us better people, more efficient, it'll be fa- bulous?" That's the story we inevitably tell about technology. The other story we tell about is that it will change everything and that it might be bad. I think all new technology is accom- panied by both of those stories, by a kind of "eve- rything will be better" and "everything will be worse." And both of those stories are true and both of those stories are false. All at the same time. Because there are certainly ways techno- logy hasn't been good for us. We don't have enough time to be bored, we have a sense of being overwhelmed, we have a sense of having many demands on our time and our brains, and there are ways it's been really good because we can now do things we couldn’t have possibly done twenty years ago. I think we have to allow that modern technology comes with both of those things, with both fear and won- der. The story is not really complete without both of those pieces, and they are both partially true and partially false. NH: What we can observe now is the so-called counter trend – that people consciously stop using technology for a period of time. Do you think it will change from a micro trend into a bigger trend in the future? Genevieve: I think the adoption of new technologies go through a cycle. There's a period very early, when it's all utopian and wonderful, “Oh my God, everyone should have it, YAY!!! We can all be fabulous,” that is immediately fol- lowed by a period when we go "oh-oh, this is really bad,” and it's kind of a horror story. Then, we emerge out of that period and it becomes clear where the technology stabilised The adoption of new technologies go through a cycle. There's a period very early, when it's all utopian and wonderful that is immediately followed by a period when we go "oh-oh, this is really bad". Then, we emerge out of that period and it becomes clear where the technology stabilised and was used forward through both a kind of overblown hype and the overblown negativity, and we land up on something stable. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  24. 24. Trendbook 201324 and was used forward through both a kind of overblown hype and the overblown negativity, and we land up on so- mething stable. But that takes a while for technologies to settle out through countries and cultures and households and communities and decide what the right level is. I think one of the challenges at the moment is that we feel like we've had this technology for twenty years. The reality is in most places it’s less than ten, and the reality is that for most of the average human beings it's not even that. And if you look historically, it takes easily a decade, or even two or three before we stabilise in our reactions to the use of new technology. The introduction of television took a really long time and we're arguing about it now, it's like fifty years on - is television good or bad for us, how much television, how far and where should I sit in front of it, should I put my kids in front of it and leave them there. And It doesn't surprise me that we’re now going through this period of questioning the value of some of these new technologies, because it came with such utopic and enthusiastic stories; we're in the natural period of asking questions about what was overblown promises. We know that historically, we'll emerge from this kind of backlash against some of these technologies at a different point. What's much more intere- sting to me is the appearance of apps that start to question the notion of permanence in the digital realm, for things like Snapchat. All of those are about creating appearances of digital technology that are totally transitory, that will come and go rather than exist forever. I think what will become very interesting as when we move through this period is where do we end up when we're done. NH: So what will our future look like? We can see our future in science fiction movies, and none of them is optimistic. Genevieve: Happy science fiction doesn't sell. People don't want to see a happy future, that doesn't make good movies. So, I think what is much more likely that science fiction tells us is that it's a safe place in some way for us to play at our fears. It is rarely a place where we play at our hopes. NH: Do you think there's a happy future then? Genevieve: I believe in a realistic future. The future will al- ways be a complicated mix of good things and bad things. History tells us that. Some of the technology will be splendid and some will have unintended, not-so-happy consequen- ces. So, to me, I'm not sure I believe in a utopic or a dystopic future. I think you have to have both stories. One of the challenges, mostly about the language of the future taught to us by science fiction, is fear. NH: You are an anthropologist, and there's also Amber Case, who calls herself a cyborg anthropologist. She believes that we are compounded with our smartphones, our tablets, and all the technology, and so we have already become cyborgs. Do you also believe that we are some kind of trans humans now? Genevieve: I believe in less than she does. I know why she makes that case, but I  think what it means to be human is more compli- cated than that. We have always been, as human be- ings, a complicated mix of the physical and the virtual. We have had physical bodies, we have had physical objects in our hands. But we believed in things we couldn't see. And we told ourselves stories to explain the world around us that were about the virtual. We had gods, we had worlds that were animated by spirits, we imagined relationships with nature, with gods, and with each other that weren't about what we could physically see. I think humans have always had a strong relationship to the “virtual,” today the virtual means something different than it did two hundred years ago, and I think we have always augmented ourselves with things. I grew up in Australia with aboriginal people who had a spear in their hands and who augmented their bodies and their physical selves with objects. Three hundred years ago, the men who were the knights of the realm had swords and horses, which were the extensions of themselves. Now that augmentation happens in the digital world. We are augmented by our Facebook profiles and we're also augmented in the physical world by our mobile phones. Do I think the balance of that makes us more cyborg than human? No, and I'm not sure it ever will. NH: So what you mean is that we are the same humans like hundreds years ago, but the times have changed? Genevieve: Yes, I think what human beings care about chan- ges incredibly slowly. There are some things that we care about as people that haven't changed over the millennia. And no amount of new technology will change that. It pro- bably makes me very old-fashioned to say that. NH: I don’t think so. I feel the same way and I wanted to hear that. Genevieve: I think it's really easy, to tell you in the field we all live in, to be seduced by the speed of technology and to There are some things that we care about as people that haven't changed over the millennia. And no amount of new technology will change that. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  25. 25. Trendbook 201325 feel like everything is changing all the time. I think it's really important to remember that there are things that human beings do and have done for a really long time. They have been part of families and communities; they have wanted to be surrounded by people who share their values; they have wanted to believe in things that were bigger than themsel- ves; they have used stuff and objects to talk about who they were to other people and themselves. Those things - they don't change. Those things are incredibly deeply rooted in our cultures and our societies. Arguably, there's a reason why some technologies have failed. I think it's not that they were unnecessarily poorly engineered, but it's that they didn’t do things we care about. NH: Maybe this fear is, as you said, driven culturally. For example, in Japan or Korea they've adopted technology really fast. I think they are not as afraid of it as we are here in Europe. Genevieve: I think that's absolutely true. The history of Ja- pan is full of the introduction of very similar technologies that we used to introduce in Europe, with a very different reaction. I think that's partly about different notions and about what makes people people, about what is the na- ture of humanity, and what is the kind of human condition. I think it's very much about what happened in Western Europe after the reformation. Starting in the 1500s onwards, there's a very strong idea in the West that I think therefore I am, cognition equals humanity, the ability to think and reason is what makes us people. In Japan and Korea, there are very different ideas about what makes human beings human. And so the technology is part and parcel and the extension of humanity, not a challenge to it. The idea that you have robots taking care of you doesn't mean anything than robots taking care of you. So there's a very different kind of arc of adoption. I even think inside Europe there are different anxieties. I think there's a very particular rea- ction to privacy and big data in places like Germany, which has such a particular history with that. But they look very differently than they do in France. Different cultures pro- duce different fears. And they're partly based on our history, which makes sense. NH: Thank you. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  26. 26. Trendbook 201326 Internet of Things - on the Internet, nobody knows you’re a.. washing machine There used to be an image circulating the web once that some speakers still use in their presentations at IT conferences. It shows a dog sitting in front of a computer and a caption "On the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog". Today, this symbolic dog should be replaced by an equally symbolic washing machine.
  27. 27. Trendbook 201327 About the trend Every year for three years now, we’ve been hearing that this year is the year of the mobile. Every year, however, this forecast fails to come true. And to be honest – it is unlikely to ever come true because, since 2010, we’ve been dealing with the so-called third wave of the Internet – the Internet of Things (IoT, Internet of things, Internet of objects)1.The result is that what we have nowadays is the era of the post-mobile. There is not one definition of the Internet of Things, but it most often goes like this – it is a network of physical objects (things) which, thanks to their embedded sensors and Inter- net access, can communicate both with a human being and among themselves. In practice, it means nothing else than the fact that virtually anything today can be connected to the Internet, making it really intelligent (it has access to in- formation and databases, which it can analyse in real time). What is also important in the case of the Internet of Things is that Internet access makes it possible for devices to com- municate with themselves independently, without human intervention (see the video The Social Web of Things). We can imagine a situation in which electronic product codes (EPCs) will make the products that shouldn’t be kept close to each other (e.g. flammables) automatically start an alarm when this rule gets broken. The scale of the trend is huge. It is estimated that by 2020, the world will have produ- ced 50 billion connected de- vices, which means around seven such devices for one person. By that time, the value of the connected de- vices market is predicted to amount to $14 trillion (Cisco data, March 2013). As stated in the Forrester research Buil- ding Value from Visibility (October 2012), more than half of enterprises plan to implement IoT solutions over the course of the next two years (see Figure 8). Diagram 1 The evolution of things with Internet access. From a computer to a thing. Key words internet of objects, internet of things, IOT (internet of things), M2M (machine-to- machine network) 1. The term Internet of Things was first used in 1999. Since 2010, the phenomenon of IoT has been growing in significance, although it has been more of a micro trend for the past three years. 2013 is predicted to be a landmark year for IoT. desktop computer mobile device e.g. a smartphone or a tablet dedicated device e.g. Nike Fuelband connected object i.e. any physical object connected to the Internet, e.g. a light bulb, socks, travel bag, packet of pills, etc. Internet of Things
  28. 28. Trendbook 201328 Accompanying trends: nomophobia (no mobile phone phobia) – the fear of being out of mobile phone range or of having your mobile running out of battery; access over ownership – an increased need to have an access to something rather than to own it Reasons behind the trend First of all – technological factors, including an incredibly fast development of software solutions and the solutions which make it possible to analyse data in real time; the de- velopment and miniaturisation of hardware technology (GPS, RFID chips, other devices which register status); and the ability to store/convert data in the cloud. Second of all – psychological factors. A modern consumer expects constant access to the Internet and information no matter the place and time. Due to his permanent lack of time, he wants solutions which are intelligent and practical. Examples of the trend The examples are virtually countless and can be found in all industries. My personal favourites are: BlackSocks – the socks with an embedded RFID chip which makes the pairing- -up process easier (say ‘no more’ to losing your socks in the washing machine :-)), hop! suitcase – you don’t have to drag it yourself as it stays in constant contact with your phone and follows you by itself, and finally botanicalls – a special sensor placed in flowers which sends us a text message or tweets us whenever the plant needs watering. One of the categories which is adapting the IoT trend particularly fast is the so-called smart home. It’s not only about connected refrigerators, washing machines, or dishwashers, but other objects too, e.g. bathroom scales (see the picture above: the Withings scales which monitors our weight loss) or light bulbs. Figure 8 More than half of companies plan to implement IoT solutions during the next 2 years. Source: Building Value from Visibility, 2012 Enterprise Internet of Things Adoption Outlook, Forrester Research, October 2012 we plan to implement IoT solutions in the next 12 months we plan to implement IoT solutions in the next 2 years we have already implemented IoT solutions we plan to implement IoT solutions in the next 2-5 years we don’t know we don’t plan to implement IoT solutions in the longer term Internet of Things
  29. 29. Trendbook 201329 I’ve decided to mention the above curiosities in order to demonstrate that the Internet of Things can be applied vir- tually anywhere. However, the three main categories to be mentioned in this context are the pharmaceutical industry (the so-called digital health), home appliances (the so-called smart home), and the automotive industry. The IoT solu- tions used in these cases completely change the consumer experience. When it comes to pharmacy – the American company Proteus Digital Health manufactures special chips which are placed on the pills patients are about to take. After swallowing such a pill, stomach acid activates the chip and enables it to communicate with the receiving station stuck to our arm, for example, from where the signal goes to our mobile phone – in this way, it sends reports to our doctor. JWhen it comes to smart home, this year’s CES included the presentations of such firms as Panasonic, Toshiba, and Samsung, in which they showcased their connected home appliances. We could see connected fridges, washing ma- chines, dishwashers, ovens, etc. A lot has been already said about the possibility of having fridges with Internet access; today, however, they are be- coming a reality and they are truly intelligent. Not only do they know we’re running out of OJ, but we can use them to buy a new carton. Moreover, the device makes suggestions about what we can cook using the products we currently have in the fridge or allows us to use our friends’ recipes. During this year’s CES, a lot of time was devoted to con- nected cars. This category should be looked at from two perspectives. Firstly, we should consider a connected car as a place where we can just hang out and soon won’t even have to focus on driving (auto-driving cars); therefore, the content is becoming increasingly important (hence the col- laboration of Hyundai with Google, or Chrysler’s solution driveuconnect.com). Secondly, due to geolocation, a con- nected car can be treated like a mobile shopping bag. We could easily imagine that while driving past a petrol station, we will get notified that it has a discount on petrol today and you can buy it £1 cheaper (this sort of solutions are already offered by Roximity, which cooperates with Ford, Kraft, and Walmart). Figure 9 The benefits achieved from implementing Internet of Things solutions (data for Europe). Source: Building Value from Visibility, 2012 Enterprise Internet of Things Adoption Outlook, Forrester Research, October 2012 Internet of Things
  30. 30. Trendbook 201330 At this point, it’s worth mentioning that the Internet of Things generates all sorts of prob- lems. One of them – the privacy issue – is commented on by Lidia Geringer de Oeden- berg, Treasurer of the European Parliament. As well as the issue of privacy, however, the CES 2013 focused on yet another thing – short battery life-span – and the fact that there is still no technology that could address this issue. Applying the trend in marke- ting solutions The above Forrester report (Building Value from Visibility) clearly shows that marke- ters see a multitude of ways in which this trend can be applied in their campaigns (see Figure 9). The areas which I consider the most attractive are all those related to the product itself: • the possibility of improving/changing the product or service quality; adjusting the Internet access in a car has led to a shift in how we perceive this category of products. What we are observing is, most of all, the demand for content. OneoftheseveralproblemsconnectedtoIoTwhichmanufacturersareawareofisshortbattery life-span.TheInternationalCES2013featureda presentationshowcasingtheSpareOne. mobile phone. It is powered by a single AA battery which can hold its charge for up to 15 years if unused, or for up to 10 hours of talk time when in use. Internet of Things
  31. 31. Trendbook 201331 The Internet of Things also enables objects to communicate among themselves with no human participation. We can imagine that when the alarm clock in our mobile phone goes off, a signal sent to our kettle puts it on for a morning coffee (see AllJoyn by Qualcomm) product to the needs of a particular user – e.g. last year, the British insurance company The Co-Operative Insurance introduced a car insurance package for young drivers, in which premiums are calculated based not on their age, but on their actual skills. The participants of the pay as you drive programme received a special device which, for one and a half months, evaluated their driving in four areas: braking and acceleration, cornering, average speed, and the time of day in which they usually drove a car. The data was sent to the insurer, who used the information to calculate the premium. Moreover, the participants could log in to their individual panels to check their scores and take advice on how to drive better; • introducing new products or services otherwise im- possible to implement without IoT – e.g. FedEx’s SenseAware service, that enables the real-time monitoring of such elements as ambient temperature, light intensity, humidity, pressure, etc. (particularly important in the case of transporting medical products, e.g. in transplantation, livestock, food, etc.); • personalising the message, product as a medium – al- ready today, QR codes or the visual search technology make it possible to encode information in the product. The problem is that this piece of information is the same for all consumers. On Father’s Day last year, Diageo, in co-operation with the firm Evrythng, allowed consumers to personalise their message on 100,000 bottles of their alcohol (you could record your private video and attach it to a particular bottle – read the case study); go to page 36 to read about Chris Cobb’s commentary on how we can use the RFID readers placed in Levi’s clothes for logistic purposes and beyond. • providing the consumer with new experiences and new opportunities – something that Nike has been doing for a long time now, first in Nike+, now in Nike FuelBand; we can also see it in miCoach by Adidas. Internet of Things
  32. 32. Trendbook 201332 Internet of Things – legal regulations Lidia Geringer de Oedenberg Treasurer in the Bureau of the European Parliament, Member of the Committee on Legal Affairs, Budgets, and Petitions The term Internet of Things appeared for the first time in 1999. Since then, a lot has changed in this domain, and even more novelties are expected in the coming years. Although the topic is becoming increasingly popular, and more and more smart devices become fixtures in our homes - this new trend has not brought a corresponding set of regulations. In the UK, where NEUL - the world's first wireless network able to send data to the so-called white spaces (unused channels in TV spectrum) and to cover an entire city (only Cambridge so far) – is being developed, market regulations in this matter are in the consultation phase. The result will be a report which will make a starting point for future le- gislation in this new domain. In the legal systems of other EU Member States, there is no legislation prepared for the advent of these new technologies either. The European Commission (EC) is observing the development of similar technologies with great interest, but we will have to wait a little longer for some joint laws in this sector. So far, the Eu- ropean Commission has only issued one Communication to Internet of Things
  33. 33. Trendbook 201333 the European Parliament and the Council in 2009, entitled: Internet of Things - an action plan for Europe COM(2009) 0278 final. From the legislator’s perspective, the following issues inclu- ded in the Communication seem to be problematic: • bject naming and identifying, • authorities responsible for assigning appropriate identifiers in intelligent machines, • ways to search for information about particular things, • ensuring personal information security and controlling the ethical mechanisms related to using our personal in- formation on the Internet. Under the Seventh Framework Programme (CIP), the Com- mission also plans to launch a research project on the chal- lenges in the field of social problems associated with this new technology. In June, the public consultation initiated by the European Commission in early April 2012 was ended. It was attended by over 600 people (more on the results of the consultation at http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/ en/news/conclusions-internet-things-public-consultation). The consultation is to be used by the EC to issue a recom- mendation on the Internet of Things, to be published this summer. Unfortunately, the exact time-frame for the le- gislative work on the document has not been specified; we only know that the Commission’s legislative proposal will not be presented until at least mid-2014. The matter will be taken up by the next tenure deputies. The main risks stemming from such advanced technolo- gies are related to the violations of our privacy and, more specifically, to the question of what kind of data will be collected, stored, or transmitted by such devices. Today, we are already dealing with a crisis of privacy protection. I have been recently working on the amendments to the report on the Regulation on the protection of personal data. The document presented by the Commission was very insightful, but required certain improvements. However, before we started working on it, the project had already gained a lot of media attention, triggering a great deal of controversy. The document’s aim was to show how to reasonably re- concile the protection of our personal data, which is our inalienable right guaranteed by Art. 8 of the Charter of Fun- damental Rights of the European Union, with the use and free flow of this data, which is associated with our daily activities and business approach. The report received 3,133 amendments, which confirms the significance of these re- gulations. The issue raised in the draft regulation which is both parti- cularly sensitive and innovative is the right to be forgotten. I have submitted as many as four amendments concerning this issue alone. The right to be forgotten, as proposed by the Commission is not feasible in practice. It is not possible to have all the information put by us or about us on the Internet removed with a single request to delete them sent to our administrator. In the attempt to clarify this regulation and make it practical, I have offered a few legal constraints that help the administrator to actually get rid of the content he manages or for the transmission of which he is respon- sible. Naturally, such a request to delete the content must relate only to those data for the processing of which there is no other legal basis, except for the subject’s consent (for instance, the data in the registry of debtors or the data on the legally valid conviction of a person). The report will be put to a vote in the Committee on Civil Liberties (LIBE) on 24-25 April, and the final adoption of the text by the EU Parliament is expected to take place in the second half of the year. The draft agenda, the report, and the amendments are ava- ilable at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/or- ganes/libe/libe_20130320_0900.htm Additional information is available on the Commission’s webpage at: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-12-360_pl.htm Internet of Things
  34. 34. Trendbook 201334 „Today, people are living their lives via screens” John McHale and Chris Cobb, Creative Directors at Sapient Nitro, will tell us about where new technologies are headed and whether our future will resemble the worlds of such films as Wall-e or Minority Report. Natalia Hatalska: wondered why there're so many peo- ple from the advertising and media industry are present on the show that was previously known as the consumer electronics show. John McHale: If we look at the way technology is changing, all these new things coming out every year, I think for peo- ple like advertisers or brands, they need to know and need to keep a finger on the pulse of things like that because that's the way technology is going, because that's the world consumers live in. I think to not be here and not see what's coming next would be foolish. You wouldn't know what's next and you would be trailing and bleeding. Chris Cobb: Exactly, and we actually see that a lot of tradi- tional agencies kind of play 'catch-up.' So there are a lot of Internet of Things
  35. 35. Trendbook 201335 agencies out there that stay in touch with this stuff, espe- cially because clients' expenditures go from traditional to di- gital. So it's a matter of paying more attention to digital and technologies because these are new important channels. And these are also spaces where one can create a content in, so you have to understand what is technology, and how is this technology enabling these new types and new forms of content people are engaging in. John McHale: I believe that it used to be such a one-way conversation with marketing and advertising when the company came up with a message and then they threw it out. They were talking to you, not talking with you at all. And now it changed. Brands started communicating back and forth with consumers when social channels opened up. And it was about releasing the brand out to the wild a little bit. Now it's even getting to the place where brands are facilitating conversation between consumers, they are becoming the vehicle by which brands and consumers can communicate and I think that is the reason why people are here and see all those new technologies that make it better or easier. NH: But now it's still more about being first since we cannot talk about the scale because not so many people are using all these devices. Some even say that when it comes to new technologies, we have to be first and we will justify why we used it later. Do you agree with this statement or do you think it's more about the benefits of the new technologies and about the experience? John: Well, while you were talking, I just thought about being a rep for music, for a label, who tries to find the band. And it's a risky job because you can't be sure if the band is going to be the next hit. There is a huge risk involved in that. So I think it's more about what Malcolm Gladwell said, You don't want to be first, you want to be third, because people who are first tend to make mistakes, the second person improves on it, and when you are third, then you can come up with something amazing. So I think that maybe we are here to watch what's going on, what is great and loud, who's going to do that first, and then anticipate that maybe we're going to do that third. Chris: There are some great examples, especially in social networks - we had Friendster, My Space, and then Facebook. There are all these examples of “let people carve out the path for you and do all the work for you and once it's done you can say this is the channel I see the opportunity in to improve upon. John: So back to your qu- estion – you want to know what's first but you don't want to make mistakes as first. It's better when some- body else is doing that and paying for that. NH: OK, so let's take au- gmented reality as an example. Do you believe in this technology? Because 3-5 years ago, there was a big boom about AR, and now it is used but in a totally different way. Chris: When augmented reality first came out, it was a lit- tle clumsy – you had to have glyphs and readers for those glyphs. The initial static that came out was overwhelming and I think that's always like that with technology adoption. But as we are seeing it now, it's more about practical usage, for a very specific use – for a one-off, and what I mean by 'one-off' is creating the experience and via this experience you're going to communicate something. The greatest example I've seen of this was National Geographic. They build this augmented reality experience where, for example, a lion would come up and walk around you, or astronauts would bounce in front of you. NH: But I'm not sure if this is still an experience. Everything is on the screen. A very similar example - the so-called au- gmented reality mirrors or virtual changing rooms. I'm not buying it, because it doesn't give me anything special. Chris: I'll give you an example. We were testing a Coca-Cola freestyle machine. It's a touch screen soda fountain from which you can choose over 120 flavors. It's also an augmen- ted reality. Another example - in American football, there's a first down line and then this line of scrimmage. When you are watching television, these two lines are showing you how far the ball needs to go. That's augmented reality, and people tend to forget that because they are mainly focused on how to use their mobile phones. I think all augmented reality is more of the passive form. And this passive con- sumption is extremely valuable. NH: But I mean more active consumption. For example, digital storefronts. Adidas has introduced it lately in Ger- many - you can buy clothes simply by swiping them into your mobile phone. You don't have to scan the QR code. Chris: I know what you're talking about. This is brilliant because technology is extending the life of this physical People who are first tend to make mistakes, the second person improves on it, and when you are third, then you can come up with something amazing. Internet of Things
  36. 36. Trendbook 201336 store. It might be closed but at the same time it is ticking 24h thanks to the web possibilities. NH: So there’s a benefit for the consumer. Chris: The interesting thing about retail and putting digi- tal things like that is that the retail is going to tackle some challenges. Technology is really enabling this new way for people to shop. And it might even be the way that people are expecting it right now. John: And it's all about the extra content when standing in an aisle, holding up this shirt, you look at it and learn more about it: how to take care of it, the material, other sizes, and so on. It's about adding premium content around things that I am exploring. For me, it's about delivering the brand awareness, understanding the brand, and educating about the brand. Chris: We were working on Levi’s. And they're going to start tagging their clothes with RFID. They're doing it operationally because they are doing stock loss and inventory tracking, that type of thing. But it might be as well things like additio- nal information, users' reviews or videos, whatever. John: I really appreciate when a brand is educating me so I feel more inclined to go back to them because I feel vast interest in that brand, because they've made me smarter, made me look better… NH: Don't you think that all of these smart things and technologies make us think that we are smarter but, in fact, they make us much more stupid? Chris: Well, it depends. When you use maps, you are relying on a piece of technology that tells you how to get there. But when it comes to things like information and building on top of something, like we were talking about the retail, for example, technology is helping me understand details. I would agree in a sense that technology does enable lazi- ness sometimes. But, on the other hand, I think it is doing a lot to educate. There have been plenty of studies and insights how technology is actually lifting people out of situations that they are currently in. They may not have access to information in school but they have it through other digital means. NH: We also expect that technology will make our life easier. Look how we interact with the devices. We don't have to learn how to interact with them anymore, we just wave our hands, we talk to them. In the near future, we will just think and they will respond. Chris: Raymond Kurzweil has written the theory on singu- larity. He describes an event where we actually have to fuse with technology because artificial intelligence beco- mes robust and starts thin- king on its own and starts to become smarter than us. In order for us to keep up with this technology, we have to fuse with it. And it's funny when we are talking about the technology we know right now. We are thinking digital because we are living in a digital rena- issance of technology, but technology has always been a part of human history: the car, the factories. It's not just digital. NH: I think the main difference in using technology now and in the past is that nowadays technology has a human face, don't you think? For example, there is some research that says 25% of us would like to have a one-to-one con- versation with vending machines. We would like vending machines to respond. John: Have you seen the movie “Wall-e”? NH: Yes, I have. John: That's what will happen with us? We will be just sit- ting around and becoming obese? [laughter] I don't want to start things against technology, but I hate e-mail right now. If you want to tell me something, come and talk to me. I would rather talk to people because we e-mail and text, and it's all around for so long so you can't actually read people's emotions. I'm going to the point in my life when I need to see people respond and feel the emotions that come out of them. Chris: Well, I feel like what we are doing right now, especially the social, e-mail, and all types of communication channels we are using, it’s just reached the peak. And we might be going even higher, but I'm wondering if this whole idea of publishing everything about yourself and constantly being on-line will, at some point, go down and then the privacy will become cool again and the interaction will become Internet of Things It's funny when we are talking about the technology we know right now. We are thinking digital because we are living in a digital renaissance of technology, but technology has always been a part of human history.
  37. 37. Trendbook 201337 cool again... You know, I haven't posted anything personal on Facebook in three years. I have a Twitter account and have never tweeted. NH: Why? Chris: Well, because it’s noise, more and more noise. NH: Or you are trying to protect your privacy... Chris: Yes, I protect my privacy, but also I just have enough noise as it is in my life. So for me, it's like I'm just adding more and more… John: It's also brand you need to keep up with, right? When you are social like that… When you are on Instagram or Facebook or Twitter, you are brand. Before, there were just people, that was John and that was Chris, and now we are the brand of John, the brand of Chris, how do you want to brand yourself? You have to have the right photo as your profile photo, you have to say the right things. Whenever you're typing things, you need to keep it in mind what is my voice's tone. Is this in line with what I said 2 months ago because people will backtrack that and check that - well, it's not what you said then, you were a little different then. NH: Do you think that this de-teching trend is getting stronger then, and we are going to stop using technology? Are we afraid of our privacy loss, about who we are, and that we have to pretend all the time? John: In social world, it is no longer about making oursel- ves happy but taking care of what other people think about us. Do they think I'm funny? Are they going to follow me? So, the more things we say or write they want to read, the more followers we get. There's a bunch of schizophrenics and frustrated people out there. Chris: I struggle when I get off Facebook because I am like “I’ll miss something or people will forget about me.” But my life wasn't necessarily enriched by all of them. The truth is that I found more enrichment off-line then I did on-line. John: The problem is that what people are doing now is experiencing their life through the screen. It's like we are not taking time to experience things but we tweet about them. I think that phones are taking us away from what we Is the future that awaits us more like the one we know from the film about the robot Wall-e? Internet of Things The problem is that people are experiencing their life through the screen. It's like we are not taking time to experience things but we tweet about them.