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5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]
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5 Crucial Internet Trends for the Next Year [report]

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This report analyses the five most striking trends which I believe we’ll have to face this year, such as Internet of things, wearable computer, big data and privacy issues, humanisation of machines …

This report analyses the five most striking trends which I believe we’ll have to face this year, such as Internet of things, wearable computer, big data and privacy issues, humanisation of machines and hybrid world.
Trends are commented on by many well-known experts from all over the world, including Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow, Director, Interaction and Experience Research, Intel, Lidia Geringer de Oedenberg, Treasurer in the European Parliament; Zuzanna Skalska, Head of Trends at VanBerlo; Chris Cobb and John McHale, Creative Directors at Sapient Nitro, New York-based artist Adam Harvey; Jan Rezab, CEO at Socialbakers; Miles Lewis, Vice-President at Shazam and Borys Musielak, creator of Filmaster.TV.

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  • 1. Trendbook 20131 Trend book 2013 Strategic Partner Edition Partner Internet of Things Kiedy firmy wiedzą o nas więcej niż my sami, czyli big data i prywatność W przypadku tzw. big data nie chodzi tylko o ogrom informacji, które gene- rujemy. Bardziej istotne są dwie inne kwestie. Pierwsza – że marketerzy mają do dyspozycji tzw. nieustruktury- zowane dane. Druga – że konsumenci mają świadomość postępującej utraty prywatności. Big data & privacy Humanisation of machines Hybrid world Quo vadis, homo digitalus? Wearable computers
  • 2. Trendbook 20132 I am deeply thankful to Intel Polska - the Strategic Partner of TrendBook 2013 – for their fantastic, incredibly substantive, and fruitful cooperation. It is thanks to this cooperation that I had the opportunity to attend the 2013 International CES in January, which, by the way, is where the final shape of this year’s TrendBook formed in my head. Intel supported me with their knowledge, reports, and data in all the areas I am writing about this year. There is no denying that when it comes to such phenomena as the Internet of things, smart world, or the humanisation of machines, you will not find a more competent and reliable partner than Intel - the technological leader in such solutions. I would also like to thank the Polish branch of Universal McCann - the Partner of this Edition - for the help and content-related support in all the fields in which I try to translate new technologies into marketing solutions. A final bow of gratitude goes out to all the experts commenting on the trends in this year’s issue of TrendBook for their time and willingness to share their experience and expertise.
  • 3. Trendbook 20133 Introduction I have been wondering lately how it is that I devote so much space to new technologies. After all, my main area of interest is still non-traditional advertising, broadly defined marketing communications, and new trends. I was quite astonished to learn that in March Piotr Stasiak, who works for Ringier Axel Springer Polska and is responsible for the development of Newsweek.pl and Forbes.pl, mentioned my blog at Press among the ones where he reads about new technologies (alongside such blogs as Antyweb or Spidersweb). In January, thanks to my collaboration with Intel Polska (the Strategic Partner of TrendBook 2013), I went to this year’s International CES – the world’s largest trade show on new technologies. For two years, I had been following what had been going on at this event and had repeatedly referred to the CES news in my speeches and blog posts. However, I still doubted whether this event was the right place for me. Luckily, my doubts proved to be groundless, and as it turned out, I was not the only represen- tative of the media and advertising industry there. The event caused the biggest advertising agencies, media houses, and the media itself to come to Vegas for the show. And it is in Vegas where the TrendBook 2013’s first shape formed in my head. Take the above and add to that the Gartner forecast saying that by 2017, a marketing executive is expected to spend more money on IT solutions than an IT executive himself, and eve- rything makes perfect sense. Modern marketing has undoub- tedly changed. Its future is inextricably intertwined with the cutting-edge technological developments and – more than we would wish - with data analysis, unstructured data in par- ticular. Advertising agencies, including the ones in Poland, are looking for people with skills in new technology development and implementation. It is more and more common that in a team responsible for a campaign, an IT specialist is just as essential as a creative director and copywriter. Therefore, it is no wonder that, writing about non-traditional campaigns, I also refer to recent technolo- gies, and that they are the topic to which TrendBook 2013 is en- tirely devoted. Traditionally, this year’s Trend- Book again focuses on five trends; however, for the first time they all revolve around one key theme – the Internet. Nevertheless, this is not the Internet as we came to know it, whether wire-provided or on our mobile device. It is about the Internet which is ubiquitous. I deeply believe that, while dealing with the third wave of the Internet – the so-called Internet of things – we are gradually approaching the post-mobile era. For this reason, the watchword of TrendBook 2013 is the sentence I heard during one of the panels at this year’s CES, “Stop talking about smartphones and start talking about the connected world.” I wish you a good read and a lot of inspiration. Natalia Hatalska Gdańsk, May 2013 According to the Gartner forecast by 2017 a marketing executive is expected to spend more money on IT solutions than an IT executive himself.
  • 4. Trendbook 20134 Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 5. Trendbook 20135 Social media clutter There is no denying that 2012 was the year when people, both in Poland and worldwide, stopped associating social media with Facebook only. As reflected in the June com- score report, Pinterest was the fastest-growing social-ne- tworking website last year (the YoY growth of +4000% - see Figure 1). Tere was also an upward trend for Instagram, snapped up by Facebook in the first half of the year for roughly $1 billion. Another hot topic was Google+, which, according to the December data from Global Web Index, is now the second most popular global social platform (see Figure 2). Western experts are starting to voice the opi- nion that young Internet users are becoming bored with Figure 1 Pinterest users (000) in the period March 2011 to May 2012. Pinterest was the fastest-growing social network site as of last year. Source: Comscore, June 2012 Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 6. Trendbook 20136 Thinking about the Internet, which of the following have you ever done? Figure 2 There has been a marked rise in using Twitter in Poland. Source: Wave 6: Biznes w społecznościach, Universal McCann, November 2012 start my own blog upload photos to a photo sharing site (e.g. flickr.com) upload a video to a platform like YouTube watch video clips on video platforms use instant messengers use a microblogging service visit a forum create a profile in a new social networking site manage a profile in an existing social networking site Figure 3 Total Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram users in Poland in the period January 2010 to January 2013 Source: Megapanel PBI/Gemius instagram.com pinterest.com twitter.com Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 7. Trendbook 20137 Figure 4 The scope of Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram among Polish users in the period January 2010 to January 2013 Source: Megapanel PBI/Gemius instagram.com pinterest.com twitter.com Facebook, which has been muscled out by Instagram and Snapchat. At this year’s CES Consumer Panel, not one panellist (aged 18-24) mentioned Facebook among their favourite social networks (the top two being Tumblr and Twitter). The Wave 6: Biznes w społecznościach report (the Polish edition of Wave 6: The Business of Social), published by UM in November 2012, says that Polish users are gradu- ally taking to Twitter – next to blogs and YouTube, Twitter is one of the three social media whose usership in Poland rocketed last year (see Figure 3). In the second half of 2012, Twitter was also the one to lead the way in terms of custom social media campaigns (see Top 10 applications of Twitter in custom advertising). According to the PBI (Polish Internet Research) data, the scope of Twitter, Pinterest, and Insta- gram among Polish Internet users in 2012 was 9.51%, 2.29%, and 2.5% respectively (see Figure 4 and 5). Jan Rezab, CEO, Socialbakers Over the last year we have seen an increasing number of brands using social media as a marketing and communications channel. When used properly, social me- dia provides a great platform for customer service and reaching new customers. However as brand presence has increased, it has become increasingly noisy and difficult for them to stand out. That s why it s im- portant to analyze impact and reach (amongst other things) to maximize the effect of your campaigns. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 8. Trendbook 20138 Marcin Niewęgłowski Owner of OMG! PR, Socjomania.pl The goings-on of Facebook are starting to echo the NK case from a few years ago (transl. note – nk.pl is the Polish social networking site). Back then, there was a big com- motion that one Wroclaw-based portal was able to attract at least every other Polish Internet user to spend their on-line time roaming its pages. Sadly, it was all about the quantity, not quality, and it was too one-sided, not socially- -oriented enough. Certain solutions were designed and implemented, but they later proved fruitless. Users were inundated with ads and irrelevant messages, which drove them away in search of an alternative. As it turned out, this alternative was Facebook. It offered genuine (as far as it’s possible on-line) relations with friends. It was and still is the top reason for using Zuckerberg’s site. However, I get the impression that over the years Facebook’s social spirit has been slowly dying down. It has transformed from a social media into a money-obsessed media platform. I’m neither a financial analyst nor a stock exchange expert; therefore, it is not my place to say whether Facebook’s NASDAQ debut was a smart business move or not. What I know, however, is that it is eating Facebook from the in- side. Whenever there is news about its new developments or improvements, they mainly are to do with advertising. As of now, Facebook already provides several dozen mar- keting solutions, related not only to the display sphere (tra- ditional banner ads), but to e-mailing (paid messages from the profile level), RTB, or search engine use. And that’s not all - other ‘improvements’ are coming soon. Facebook wants to launch its affiliate network - an external ad platform that would use such elements as measuring buttons next to articles on websites. Another item in the basket of plan- ned novelties is an absurd option of promoting other users’ posts (no, not brands or fan pages) and their friends’ shares. Another addition is supposed to be rich media pop-up ads appearing in newsfeed (video materials). That means the seeds of pop-up solutions visible on other Internet portals will be planted in Facebook’s walled garden. And what’s looming on the horizon is the prospect of spreading these seeds to the mobile sphere. The worst thing is that Zuckerberg’s platform is slowly killing that which laid foundations of its creation – its social spirit. It is enough to look at the recent February Socialbakers report for Poland. Which posts engage users the most? Those of the “noughts and crosses" type. According to the last year’s survey conducted by Sterne Agee, users themselves have noticed the increase in the number of ads over the last se- veral months. Moreover, 60% of respondents stated that the significance, quality, and relevance of the content had deteriorated. In this context, there is one thing that strikes me. Considering the fact that Facebook itself has failed to attract a sufficient number of its members to vote on the changes to the site’s privacy and governance policies, the effectiveness of its marketing services remains a  big que- stion mark. Paradoxically, neither in Poland nor anywhere else in the world can we notice the trend of mass exodus from Fa- cebook. Two events would have to occur in order for that to happen. Firstly, Zuckerberg would have to, colloquially speaking, push his luck completely to make users aban- don him. That could be done by, for example, turning 50% of the newsfeed posts users get into ads. Secondly, a rival platform would have to give them something more useful and socially-oriented than what Facebook has to offer. It would have to be a fresh face of social networking evolution, catering for the current on-line media consumption needs. Though I’ve already warmed to Twitter, I do not expect it to thrive in Poland. Despite almost 2-million visitors per month, this microblogging platform seems a slightly more complicated form of social networking - not the average Facebook user’s cup of tea. However, for a long time now, I have been following the developmental path of other mic- roblogging platform in Poland - Tumblr. Today, it is visited by more than one million users in our country. In addition, it’s available in the Polish language version. While Twitter revolves around 140-character text-based messages, Tumblr runs in a similar vein but through photos and videos. It is said that the Polish membership base of LinkedIn is estimated at 4-5 million. What about YouTube and Google+? YouTube alone is unable to steal away Facebook users because it’s a platform of a slightly different type. In tandem with Go- ogle+, however, that could be possible. But for now, the social platform Google+ itself is not...social enough. To me, one thing is certain. After the Facebook era, which I believe will last until the end of 2014, we will witness the same sort of verticalisation that happened to Internet me- dia. Specialised, vertical networking sites addressed to a spe- cific market will come out on top. Over the years Facebook’s social spirit has been slowly dying down. It has transformed from a social media into a money-obsessed media platform. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 9. Trendbook 20139 Social TV While I get a star for the accurate forecast when it comes to the first trend, in the case of social TV, however, the si- tuation is rather unclear. On the one hand, we had two Shazam-based campaigns in Poland (both in the motorcycle industry – Shazam was used by Mercedes and Nissan), and VoodooDance developed a 2nd screen platform for TVP1 (allowing interaction with the programmes/TV commercials in real time via a mobile phone/web site/FB application). But, on the other hand, social TV has not yet reached its tipping point here as it has in the West. The main reason seems to be the fact that, in Poland, we are still quite “attached to the wire” data, and that the most popular second screen application now is Twitter (still in the nascent stage in our country). Suffice it to look at the data on this year's Super Bowl - more than half of the spots aired in the ad breaks mentioned Twitter, and the event alone generated more than 24 million tweets. The strong position of Twitter in the category of social TV is also confirmed by the fact that in December 2012 Twitter signed an agreement with Nielsen to develop global standards for researching the phenomena of social TV. Mo- reover, in February 2013 Twitter acquired Bluefin Labs, a so- cial TV analytics company. With the increasing use of mobile devices (smartphones and tablets), we can expect that the social TV phenomenon will continue to spread (as stated in Nielsen reports, 70% of tablet users and 68% of smartphone owners have declared that they use these devices while watching TV). Another issue is that in 2013, according to LG reports (cited during the Second Screen Experiences panel at the CES 2013), 6 out of 10 TV buyers will choose a smart TV. Another obstacle is the nomenclature - social TV, 2nd screen, etc. – the respondents, including those in Poland, may not even be aware that they are, in fact, engaging in this type of activity (see Figure 5, 6, 7). Figure 5 Places where the content was uploaded during the EURO 2012 game between Poland and Greece Source: Brand24 Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 10. Trendbook 201310 Figure 6 Devices used to upload the content during the EURO 2012 game between Poland and Greece Although the phenomenon of on-line commenting on what we see on TV is commonplace, we still remain very much “attached to the wire.” We comment mostly via our computers. With smartphones and tablets becoming more and more ubiquitous though, we can expect a gradual departure from using a computer. Source: Brand24 Figure 7 TV and social media viewer ratings for the EURO 2012 game between Poland and Russia What is striking is the fact that the social media activity doesn’t die down until about an hour after the game. It means that we turn the TV off, but are still commenting the event on social networking sites. Source: TV viewer ratings: AGB Nielsen Media Research for the 4+ group, based on the analysis provided by the Initiative me- dia house. The social media data: Brand24. The data is not comparable. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 11. Trendbook 201311 Borys Musielak CEO of Filmaster.TV Social TV in Poland is virtually non-existent. We could use such platforms as the UK’s Zeebox or some integrated social elements in set-top boxes or applications of top television and cable networks. The managing of a Facebook profile of a TV show, which is what most content creators’ job boils down to, cannot be called “social TV.” Due to its limitations, Facebook is not an ideal platform for this type of activity anyway. For a genuinely social TV, we need three ingredients: • a foolproof mechanism for content discovery (personali- sed recommendations), • a straightforward way of content sharing (social element), • integration with the first screen (i.e. TV). An ideal social TV application should therefore be able to find us an interesting TV programme, make it possible for us to watch it, and then allow us to share the find with our friends (it is here where Facebook or Twitter comes into play as a distribution method). Such a platform, provided it is skillfully used by TV stations or cable television, can be a great new revenue generator thanks to such features as highly personalised content and highly personalised adver- tising messages. Let’s imagine an iPad application which "collects" the ads viewed by the user and archives those which are the most suited to his taste, creating a unique, custom-designed store with the most interesting sugge- stions. Shopping at this store would bring money to all links in the chain: an advertiser, television (as a distributor), and application provider. This could be a win-win-win-win situ- ation, with a client as the fourth winner as we’ve just made his life easier. And that's just one of the many methods of how to monetise the second screen applications. Cezary Otowski CTO, VoodooDance Our 2nd screen application, which we have prepared with TVP, works in a very simple way. During a fo- otball match, a  player guesses what is going to happen in the next 30 seconds, using a mobile phone application (Java, Android, iOS) or a computer (any website or Facebook). If he manages to pre- dict one of four possible options (goal, throw-in, foul, intercept), he is awarded points that count towards the ranking. Initially, the app was to be the key element of the competition organized by TVP during the Euro 2012 Championship. Ultimately, however, the television decided to go with the traditional SMS competition. Our application was still used to test the functionality and way of engaging the audience. The result was very positive - 27.6% of the players returned to play again during the following Euro 2012 match; 19.7% played at least three games in a row; the average playing time (including the guessing time only and excluding the time of starting the app) was 51 minutes; the maximum playing time throughout the championship was 19.5 hours. What we prepared was not only a very impressive and en- gaging application, but the entire system with which you can develop other configurable 2ndScreen apps. Along with TVP, we wanted to build on top of that and created another application: rules of the game were similar, but this time related to tennis and volleyball in the 2012 London Olym- pics. Unfortunately, we included the matches with Poles as participants, so the whole fun ended before it even began. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 12. Trendbook 201312 „The future of social TV? It’s crystal ball gazing.” About potential of 2nd screen I talk with Miles Lewis, Vice President Advertising, Shazam Natalia Hatalska: What does social TV mean for you? Is it more about commenting in social media what’s happening on TV screen or is it more about using some special dedica- ted platform like Zeebox while watching TV? Miles Lewis: I think it really depends on the consumer, but also on the content of the programme, and you can’t al- ways pigeonhole into one area. What we do know is that consumers are wanting to get involved, they are wanting to have more of a relationship both with the programme they’re watching and the brands that they’re seeing. They like to comment, they like to get involved, and also they are very willing to have an extended relationship. So if they’ve been watching a 20-minute programme, they are desperate for maybe a glimpse of what’s gonna happen next week - many producers understand this and use the second screen Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 13. Trendbook 201313 tokeep interest alive. And keeping the interest alive will keep the viewing figures up. You know, from a brand point of view, TV advertising is still very, very successful and key to reaching millions of consumers, but a 15- to 30-second TV spot is still unable to get the 100% cut-through that they are wishing, so, extending that conversation onto, let’s say, a mobile device is a very, very cost-effective way of exten- ding that messaging as well to extend engagement. So, it depends. It depends on what country, it depends on what users, and it depends on what is actually happening at that moment, with what content. NH: But during CES2013, this year in Vegas, on the panel Se- cond Screen Experiences some experts said that the main problem with the second screen now is that people are doing something that is not related to the content they are watching on TV. Do you perceive it in the same way, so they are chatting on Facebook and Twitter and they are not engaging with the content? Miles: I suppose, ultimately, it varies, again, on who’s saying what. We see an awful lot of our users who are engaging further with the content on the screen. Those who Shazam programming in the United States want more information about that programme that’s on the screen now. They want to find out about the actors, they want to find out about the products. They want to have more of an engagement. So it depends. We see many, many different usages, and sometimes that’s an ability where someone will tag a pro- gramme or an ad and then involve themselves 24 hours later. It happens because they don’t want to stop watching the programme, and they do want further engagement, so they’ll tag, and they’ll use it later on. So, yes and no. Again, I don’t think there is a right or wrong answer here, I think it depends on the consumer and their state of mind. NH: Well, you’ve mentioned something very interesting, tagging TV shows. Is it popular in the United States or in the United Kingdom? Miles: Our product has been launched in the United States and we have run one pilot programme here in the UK, but it’s popular. Yes, right now , millions of people are doing this. There is desire for more information and for engaging in that additional information in a time that is convenient for them, because consumers run mission control. It’s “I want more information about (US TV Show) Being Human, but I want to access that information on my commute in the morning.” NH: I remember that Shazam was founded in the United States but then they had to settle down in London because mobile phones usage was not so popular in the United Sta- tes at that time, and my question is: how is it now? Where are your revenues mainly from: Europe or the United States? Miles: Well, obviously, in terms of being a private company, I can’t quite divulge where revenues come from specifically, but actually we have 300 million users, we drive a 300 mil- lion dollars’ worth of music sales a year globally, because our core usage is still disco- vering and finding music. There’s also an in-app ad- vertising module, so glo- bally we put advertising marketing messages inside the app, and we sell those on a  country-by-country basis. But Shazam for TV is a very large and rapidly growing revenue stream as well. So there’s 3 pillars that are obvious ones. Rica: If I could just add to that really quickly, we were actually founded here in London because the mo- bile market was more mature than it was in the United States with how people used mobile, how they had alre- ady integrated it into their daily lives was a little bit more advanced. NH: You said Shazam for TV is a very large revenue stream, and on CES I heard that you were already running more than 200 advertising campaigns on the second screen. Could you tell me more about them? Miles: That figure is 200 plus campaigns we’ve run for ma- jor brands on the Shazam for TV platform. I think the most critical part here is that it’s not a separate app. The app that consumers use to engage with branded TV advertising that has the Shazam call-to-action on is exactly the same app you use for discovering music. And that’s the beauty of it. There’s no need to download a new app. So we work with hundreds of the world’s great forward-thinking brands, whether it’s from a financial service industry, through motor companies, to FMCGs, film and entertainment, and we work with a lot of TV advertising is still very successful and key to reaching millions of consumers, but a 30-second TV spot is still unable to get the 100% cut-through that they are wishing, so extending that conversation onto a mobile device is a very cost-effective way of extending that messaging as well to extend engagement. Which prediction for 2012 have come true?
  • 14. Trendbook 201314 companies around the world. But from an American point of view, in North America, that has really been in existence for two years, to here which it’s been running for a year, to Australia, where it’s been running for three months. We have a lot of experience working in the second screen world. NH: So do you think that Shazam or other second-screen apps have the real potential to expand TV advertising? Miles: Absolutely. Let me give you an example. Here in the United Kingdom, 4.7 billion ads are seen every single day on TV. That’s 4.7 billion. So if you’re an advertiser, how on earth do you get cut-through? How on earth do you make sure that your ad is remembered? And in this day and age, when in the ad breaks it’s well known that Tweets and Facebook posts go out because they’re there, and everyone can see them, actually adding a Shazam enablement to TV adver- tising on a call out, saying “Shazam now for the full movie trailer” or “Shazam now for a test drive” or “Shazam now for a free product”, is a way to get that instant gratification of a consumer. And this is also a fantastic way of extending a 15-, 30-, 45-, or 60-second TV ad to over a three-and-a-half minutes of engagement which is on average what we get. Rica: One of the of the things that we did last year was an ad campaign with Sony Entertainment for Men in Black, and for a number of their movies, so that people in the United States when they used Shazam to tag the ad, they could find out what local theatres were showing Men in Black. They could use the app, tag the ad, and then it would come up with “Okay this movie is showing in these four theatres close to you, you can buy the tickets for it”, and so it’s all very, very simple, so all you had to do is just show up, you didn’t even have to stand in line, you could go and pick up your tickets and just walk on through. So it makes this type of transactions very, very simple and the fact that you have things like geolocation, you know, you don’t have to say “okay, I live in London, I live south of London, I live west of London,” you don’t have to dig in further and further, entering your post code, because it knows where you are. NH: Well, that’s really great example. Can you give me some more? Miles: Of course, we’ve obviously mentioned films because that’s the big category for us, but we’ve had drinks, we’ve had Diageo running with Smirnoff. We’ve had Lynx with a great campaign running here in the UK, that allowed you to Shazam ad for a chance to win a trip to space. We’ve worked with every single category and the most important part of it is “why would I, as a consumer, want to Shazam this TV ad?” And that’s how we work with the creative agencies as well as media to come up with a very compelling idea, and the earlier we get involved, the better. Because if a brand is gonna spend X millions of euros on shooting and producing a great TV ad, there has to be a payback from that, and they have to understand what they want consumers do after it. We can really add to that and amplify it. NH: So are advertisers happy with the results of the campa- igns? You know that it gave them some outcome. Or maybe they just testing it as a new form of advertising? Miles: I  think the biggest barometer for success is whether a client comes back and renews, and it’s very, very simple to look at one advertiser and say “yeah, we’ve run that, we’re not too sure”. But our renewal rate is strong, we’re running one campaign in Germany where we’re already on our third campaign, we have two clients in Australia now on their second campaign, so this is now becoming a behaviour, and that is really critical. NH: You said that the beauty of Shazam is that you can tag ads with the same app you tag music. And my question is as following. The producers believed that dedicated se- cond screen services like, Get Glue for example, will be the most popular. But it turned out that people prefer to use the media they know. So now they use Twitter mainly as thir second screen social service. Do you think this is the case? That while using second screen, you want to use apps that you know, and that you used before? Miles: Yes and no. There’s always an element of there being users who will want to get involved with Get Glue because it’s got a product feature they like or Zeebox because it’s got a product feature they like. But the fundamentals are that it’s about scale and we’re still human beings and we still have a certain amount of space in our heads to remember to use certain apps. So if you look at all of the apps avai- lable for programming, for separate stations, whether that station is iTV here in the UK or NBC, whatever it is, and then programmes related to programming, suddenly you can have over 1,500 apps on your iPhone to engage with this content. That becomes itself a problem. So, actually, where Shazam’s brilliance lies is that it’s already used ten million What is a “known known” is that this is the very start of this real shift. Where it’ll change and where it’ll shift – just no one knows. But what we do know is that consumers want simplicity. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 15. Trendbook 201315 times a day and actually to make someone have saved time “Oh I can now interact with programming and advertising, fantastic, I haven’t got to download another app.” But, you know, that’s the easy part. There will be people who want to use another apps, but the fundamentals are that we get that huge cut-through and it makes it very, very simple for consumers, and consumers know and like simplicity. NH: So you mean that the main drivers of social TV are not only technological but also psychological? And the second question is – has it already reached a tipping point? In your country for example? Miles: Again, I think it’s a combination of so many different factors, but we know that music in the programming can drive Shazam usage. For example the Closing Ceremony of the London Olympics had a track by Kate Bush in it, and Kate Bush has been around for a long time, but there’s a whole generation of people who didn’t know what the track was, and we saw the most amazing amount of tags, people finding out via Shazam what that music was. So you could say that’s social TV, because something is running on the TV, I’m gonna find out what that music is and share it with my friends. And ultimately that’s a big, big driver of usage. At the same time people are tweeting, putting it on Facebook to talk about what they’re watching. So yes, there’s definitely a tipping point arriving. The question more than anything else is a whole sway of the population who aren’t necessarily wanting to get involved in all program- ming. Some programmes lean back, some programmes lean forward. Ultimately, there’s a lot of area where Shazam can cut through all this to tell you what the music is, to tell you more information about the brand, to tell you more information about the products. That all comes down to what the hook is and why someone would get involved in the first place. NH: So what’s the future of social TV? How do you think it will look in near future? Miles: It’s crystal ball gazing. What is a “known known” is that this is the very, very start of this real shift. Where it’ll change and where it’ll shift – just no one knows, but what we do know and what is a fact is that consumers want simplicity, they don’t need complex, because they have so much going on in their lives. Google has come out recently and said we pick up our phones one hun- dred fifty times a day. That’s a huge amount of checking our phone, so if you have some content on there, you can fill a two-minute gap in your day while you’re wai- ting for your train, that is a great scenario for us because those two minutes could be filled with some content. NH: And what about the privacy? For example, we can easily imagine situation that we exactly know what the consumer is watching in the third second of the show. Miles: Yes, I think from Shazam’s perspective, we are incre- dibly aware of privacy and we are very, very protective of our users’ identity, so all of the information we have is based on pure tag data and that is “someone, somewhere, today, in London has tagged a song”. We don’t know who it is, or anything about them, and neither will we ever, ever, ever want to find out. Because that’s privacy, you know, and the ultimate part of this is we have a very generalized data about our demographic brake down. No personal information is passed anywhere, so I think it’s incredibly important, and especially with the rise of more and more information about consumers that is out there, we have to be very, very careful and thus we are absolutely adamant that our consumers remain very anonymous. NH: Thank you. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 16. Trendbook 201316 App overload Definitely one of the major trends – visible in Poland inso- far as allowed by smartphone penetration (according to TNS, it’s around 25%). Still, the numbers are awe-inspiring. As estimated by Antyweb, Polish users downloaded a to- tal of more than 40 million apps last October alone (iOS, Android, Windows). It should be added that users of these three particular systems differ from one another. As stated in the Isobar Mobile Polska report (there were two waves of the study: in 2010 and 2012; the data refer to Poland), Apple owners are the most active app downloaders (76% surf the Internet and 36% have downloaded an app), followed by Android users (63% - the Internet, 22% - applications) and the users of mobile Windows versions (69% - the Internet, 16% - applications). Poles are most eager to use those apps that allow them to extend a mobile phone’s communica- tion functions. That includes instant messengers (44%) and social networking sites (41%), but also utility applications which facilitate everyday activities (41%). In the context of this trend, it is worth quoting a catchphrase popular in the West, "for mobile devices think apps, not ads." An interesting example demonstrating this trend is Donation Box - a project developed last year by students at Miami Ad School. The concept is based on the premise that a user “drops” the apps he no longer uses into a special applica- tion - Donation Box. Next, the developer of these apps (e.g. Apple) donates their value to charity (see video). The industry crossword puzzle – an interesting initiative using QR codes, developed by JWT Poland The Fiat Street Evo campaign using the visual search technology. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 17. Trendbook 201317 Point&Know, Point&Buy A few days after I published TrendBook 2012, featuring such technologies as Vuzix Smart Glasses and briefly mentioning Google Glass, Google set its project in motion. They were the ones to largely dominate the 2012 Point&Know trend, at least media-wise. On the other hand, practice shows that QR codes are still quite popular. Last year, we had a virtually infinite number of such campaigns both in the West and in Poland. One of the most interesting projects was Projekt Ingeborg in the Austrian city of Klagenfurt. As part of it, QR codes were scattered throughout Klagenfurt in 120 loca- tions, and you could use them to download books or music. Worthwhile Polish QR projects include the campaign of Piotr i Paweł (transl. note: Polish food store chain), developed in co-operation with AMS, during which the inhabitants of Poznań could shop directly from bus stops (more on the campaign in Błażej Patryna’s commentary – see p. 18). When it comes to visual search, however, it is definitely a techno- logy that has not yet reached a milestone. It has appeared in two campaigns which particularly drew my attention. One was made ​​by Adidas in Germany, where you could buy clothes directly from the store’s window by dragging- -and-dropping items to your phone (without scanning the code – see the movie) and the second one was the Fiat Street Evo campaign, where various pieces of information on the Evo model were "hidden" in road signs. Project Ingeborg in the city of Klagenfurt in Austria. The QR codes located in 120 places all over the city contained books and music files. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 18. Trendbook 201318 Monika Mikowska Managing Partner at mobee dick, author of the blog jestem.mobi The phenomenon of app over- load did not end with the advent of 2013 – it is still with us. There is both supply and demand for mo- bile apps. In fact, this demand was at an all-time high last year. In ad- dition to the numbers mentioned by Natalia, it is worth recalling Apple's official press release from two months ago con- firming that there are 775,000 applications available in the App Store, which have been downloaded 40 billion times, with 20 billion in 2012 alone. It is predicted that in 2013 this record will be beaten. In Poland, smartphone penetration is getting bigger and bigger month by month, and Polish users’ awareness of what these devices can do is growing too, although much slower. Well-chosen mobile apps are a great way to expand this awareness. They are the tools which are eliminating an increasing number of everyday objects from our environment (from such obvious examples as an alarm clock, notepad, music player, torch, to more unusual - car keys, TV or computer remote control, cartoons for children, payment card, scanner, heart rate monitor, etc.). That is why both developers and marketers feel motivated to produce even more of them. 2013 will bring many new technologies whose production got underway last year. Nevertheless, I would like to emphasise two things. Firstly, brands cannot treat mobile applications as a new advertising format. While we are eager to download applications of practical value, we are rather reluctant to do the same with advertising or sponsored apps. Secondly, we should remember that the "mobile web" provides a wider range than "mobile apps." Analysing the experiences of Polish companies which offer both a mobile-optimised website and a mobile app, we know that the monthly number of unique users accessing a mobile website is higher than the total number of peo- ple who have downloaded the application. Just as the year 2012 was marked by a boom in mobile apps, so should 2013 be marked by a burgeoning fashion for making websites mobile-app-friendly. Błażej Patryn Internet Sales Executive, Piotr i Paweł In late 2012, we made the first cam- paign in Poland which allowed users to do their shopping directly from the street. It was labelled Uwolnij Czas. Przygotuj Telefon na Rewolucję (Free Your Time. Prepare your Phone for a Revolution). It was a joint research project of the Insti- tute of Logistics and Warehousing (ILiM), the Piotr i Paweł chain store, the KIP SA Transferuj.pl payment integrator, and the firm AMS SA. By the end of November, the citizens of Poznań and its surroundings could use smartphones, QR codes, and the mobile application RockPay to buy products in the "here and now" mode. Our data shows that people’s awareness of on-line grocery shopping is still at a relatively low level, although it is on a visible upward trend. Only a small group of people knows about the possibility of do- ing their grocery shopping with the use of a mobile phone. The goal we wanted to achieve was, most of all, building awareness of mobile shopping and presenting the oppor- tunities offered by mobile technologies. Another objective of the mKonsument project was to demonstrate that this sort of shopping is incredibly easy, fast, convenient, and, most importantly, safe. A key role in the project belongs to RockPay app. It allows a user to compile his shopping list and go through the entire payment process on his smartp- hone. The conclusions which we were able to draw after the campaign show that the visibility and role of QR codes in marketing communications is on the rise. This is also confirmed by the relative results on the number of scans as compared to the number of available locations with co- des. Smartphone users still treat these devices primarily as a tool for communication and experimentation. In order for the mobile ways of shopping and making payments in the "here and now" to become a well-established habit of Polish consumers, we still have a lot of awareness-building to do. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 19. Trendbook 201319 Our body as the controller In Trendbook 2012, I focused on the voice, gesture, and touch control, but the reality turned out to be faster than predic- ted. Already last year, we could observe the increasing use of the technology that allows us to interact with a device using the mind as the only controlling tool. The examples can be seen today not only in the medical industry (mo- ving an artificial arm/leg lub a completely paralysed person communicating with a computer), but also in films, video games, children's toys, etc. Nowadays, it would be hard to grasp that a screen of any device is not a touch screen. The strength of this trend is additionally emphasised by the last year's premiere of the touchscreen-adapted Windows 8 system. By the way, I recommend the report published in 2012 by the IAB Polska: Przyszłość Internetu jest dotykowa (Touch is the Internet’s future). Reliability of the trends predicted for 2012 Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 20. Trendbook 201320 „There are some things that we care about that haven't changed over the millennia.” Talking with Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow, Director, Interaction and Experience Research, Intel who is named one 100 Most Creative People in Business, inducted into the Women In Technology International (WITI) Hall of Fame and honored by the Anita Borg Institute as the 2013 Woman of Vision for Leadership. Natalia Hatalska: Last month, I had a presentation about how women use technology, and during this presenta- tion I was citing your research that there are some areas where women adapt technology faster than men and I was called 'sexist' because of that. Why is there such a strong stereotype that only men use technology and women are only interested in cooking, fashion and children? Genevieve Bell: The thing about all sorts of technology is that its adoption is dependent on what the technology is, Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 21. Trendbook 201321 where it appeared, what it did, and who the population of adopters is. We know in some places technology is adopted by young people and in other places by people who can afford it. For example, looking at the introduction of cars, the first people that owned cars were people in their forties and fifties because they were the ones who had money. The first time mobile phones hit ubiquity in Japan, they were being adopted both by men in the workforce as well as teenagers. Different technologies have different appeal and have different barriers too, so sometimes they require a lot of time to set them up, they may require the kind of network connection that isn't available to everyone, they may require money, and lots of different things. We know that the arc of technology adoption had looked differently over time, but there are some things that are constant. Most technology that comes into the home, for instance, women are the ones who “tame” it. They make it domestic and safe. Although women didn't invent electricity, they were certainly the ones who worked out how to cook on it, how to clean with it, how to make clothes presentable. If you look at my colleagues in places like British Telecom, when they were studying the introduction of the telephone, it was women who answered the phone, it was women who made the vocal phone calls to check up on relatives and family, and do all of that kind of thing. We've seen in more recent years that different technologies have had different adoption too. Most e-readers, for instance, are owned by women, not men. Now, does that mean men are illiterate? No, but women use books as a way of relaxing, it also fits into a lifestyle that is in some ways overcommitted and time-poor. NH: You said that the adoption of technology is dependent on different factors, such as the cost of this technology, for example. Are there any specific psychological factors that are driving the technology adoption? Genevieve: Some technologies get adopted because they address pain points so they make our life easier, and so- metimes it's because we're told they make our life easier. Washing machines, refrigeration, those were technologies that we were told would make less washing and better food. Some people adopted them very quickly because they had money or because they were in some way seduced by those promises. Other people took longer. I don't think there's a consistent personality type that says you'll always be an earlier adopter of technology, and I'm not sure there's a con- sistent kind of population of people who are lagging. There are certainly some technologies that I think, over time, pe- ople worry about more, but worries change too. My great grandmother's generation in Australia are the ones who were young when electricity was introduced, and they were very frighte- ned of it since it was a scary thing – it made noises, it threatened to electrocute them. It wasn’t stable and controllable in the ways the previous technology had been, but by the time my great grandmother died when she was in her nineties, electricity was just part of her life, so I think it also changes over a course of a lifetime. Technology you were frightened of when you were a kid - you may not even think twice about it as a grown-up. NH: ’ll come back to those fears and worries of technology later on, and now I’d like to talk about ourselves as an aging generation. Certainly, the elderly use technology totally dif- ferently than young people. So how should we design this technology for our future selves? What it should look like? Genevieve: It's a good question. There are a couple of things to remember. My parents' generation, people that were born during World War II or right before/ after it, people in their sixties, seventies and eighties – you have to remember that this generation saw the adoption of mass-produced cars, television, VCRs, microwave ovens, mobile phones. Many of them were in their peak years in their jobs and their careers, and some of those technologies really took off. So some of them were actually grown ups when the technologies that were quite spectacularly life-changing appeared. So, in some ways, that cohort that we think of now as being old were actually incredibly kind of experimental in terms of their relationship to and with technology. It changed their workplaces, it was often part of their lives, it was certainly things they gave to their kids. In some ways, that's not surpri- sing when you look at what that cohort is doing, particularly in the days of the Internet. In the U.S. or Western Europe, people in their sixties and seventies are the fastest-growing group on Facebook and social networking sites. In the U.S, people in their fifties and sixties are the fastest-growing group on on-line dating sites. Because they’ve got empty nests, they’ve changed their relationships, they've left their partners, they've broken out of marriages, they're out dating again. I was just reading some data the other day that pe- ople in their forties and fifties are more likely to be sending sex-texts, so sexting, than people in their twenties. I think we sometimes sort of imagine “Oh, that cohort, they're old ...they're not doing very much,” but the reality is most The thing about all sorts of technology is that its adoption is dependent on what the technology is, where it appeared, what it did, and who the population of adopters is. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 22. Trendbook 201322 cohorts that have gotten older are quite exposed to a lot of new technologies and have carried some of that desire to be involved in technology with them as they moved forward. We need to be very careful about not assuming that just because you're not a twenty-something means you don't use technology. And I want to push against that stereotype all the time. NH: Let’s talk about twenty-somethings then. In one of your previous interviews, you said that young people use techno- logy differently when their parents pay for it, and it's totally different when they have to pay by themselves. Can you comment more on that? Genevieve: Sure, I don’t know what it's like in Poland, but we had been doing work at that point which was in the U.S., Australia, and a couple of other places. When kids were still living at home, their parents were paying their mobile phone bills, providing the Internet to the house and so on. What we found was that when people started to have to pay their own bills, to pay for their mobile phones, data plans, Internet, they changed their usage behaviors. And that's not surprising. We know that what you do when you're newly married is different than what you do when you're single. And what is fascinating for me is that we sometimes sort of suggest that there are these generations and then we talk about Baby Boomers, Gen Y, Gen X, Millennials. I think those are powerful ideas, but it's also very clear to me that it is where you are in the stage of your life that seems to impact the decisions you make. A new parent who's 25 has a lot in common with a new parent who's forty. So, that kind of notion we have that the youth of today is using everything all the time was a bit like saying when someone goes to a restaurant with a buffet, they eat everything, and then when they have to pay for plates, they eat less. In some way, it was pretty obvious, but it was fascinating when we saw it happening. NH: I remember you also said that there is not one Internet, that there are lots of different Internets which adapt to platforms they use. Genevieve: Absolutely. NH: But it's not a very popular notion of the Internet. We rather tend to think about it as of something similar to elec- tricity. Something that is the same, that surrounds us. Genevieve: But even electricity is different in different co- untries. Different voltage, different plugs, different payment systems, different ideas about who should provide it and who should look after it and regulate it. The Internet is not dissimilar. How the Internet is provisioned in the United States is very different than in Australia or the UK. Everything from who are the service providers, is there a standard for the network traffic or speed, is there a standard for dow- nload speed versus upload speed, is there a requirement for parity, can you move anything on the Internet or there are some sites available and unavailable to you. We know that the Internet is not a seamless whole, where no matter where you are on the planet you would feel the same things in exactly the same way. And we know that what the Inter- net looks like and feels like on a mobile phone is probably very different than on a laptop. Partly because of architec- ture of information, partly because of the bandwidth, partly because of network availability, partly because we know people do different things on each one of those platforms. My argument historically has been that different platforms are animated by the Internet. When the Internet arrived on mobile phones, a couple of things became clear very quickly: number one was that having the entire of the Internet on a mobile phone wasn't how people used it. Apps were what they wanted, they wanted a particular thing – “tell me what restaurant is near me,” or “tell me how to get to the tube station.” It was very specific to where they were. NH: And what about the Internet of things? How will it change our experience? Genevieve: I think we're going to find out. Part of it is going to be that we're going to regard things differently when they're connected. If you're used to a street, a traffic light just being a traffic light, and now it's connected to a network of other traffic lights and it knows how the traffic pattern is working and goes green faster or stays red longer, we'll experience the road and driving in a very different way. NH: Some people even believe that we won't need traffic lights anymore because all the machines will be commu- nicating with each other. Genevieve: I think we'll always need traffic lights, not all cars will ever gonna be connected. Although when we think about smart cars in future, we can imagine that cars will talk to each other, not drivers, and that the cars will actually be gossiping about us, "she's a terrible driver, keep away from We need to be very careful about not assuming that just because you're not a twenty-something means you don't use technology. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 23. Trendbook 201323 her.” But I think rather than this, it’s the case that we've never had world with a single Internet, it has always been lots of Internets. NH: Let’s dwell on the notion of cars chatting with them- selves for a little longer. Ray Kurzweil predicted that before 2030 computers’ reasoning will be the same as humans’. We can imagine that we will have widespread robots that will be doing all the work for us, and that we'll have time for resting, reading, or just for being bored. We should be happy about it. However, instead of being happy, we are extremely frightened. Why is it so? Genevieve: I think one of our anxieties about new techno- logy is precisely that we know – from the history of tech- nology – that it changes things. For many people, change is a scary thing. It means that what was once stable and known may become unstable. For lots of people, that moment of flux is hard to handle. When technology threatens to change a couple of things, I think we get very frightened. When it threatens our ideas about time and space, so electricity makes nights into days, trains that let us go hundreds of miles in a very short amount of time, it changes the way we think about the world and I think those technologies provoke anxiety because those are hard, conceptual chan- ges to make. Ultimately, I think what it's really about though is that a lot of new technologies make us have to think about what makes us distinctive. So, you mentioned singularity, I think one of the things people find very provoking and confrontational about Ray Kurzweil is that they listen to him and they hear him saying, “computers will replace people because will be able to replace the human brain.” I think for a lot of people, that notion is really scary. NH: Isn’t it a very similar situation to the one we had at the end of the 18th century when the Luddites were really afraid of the technology and machines they had in their factories? Genevieve: Yes, it is. I was giving the talk just this morning about where our fear comes from. One of the things I was arguing was that that period - the Luddites in England 200 years ago - and the notion of machines replacing us, along with the fear which that generated, has never gone away. It has these echoes that run through to the present day. While two hundred years ago what machinery threatened to do was replace our labour, and that was hugely important, now it threatens to replace our thinking, which is also really scary. What makes us different than everything else on the planet? It is our ability to reason, it's our cognitive power, and if you can outsource that to a machine, the question ultimately becomes - what are we worth? I think that sort of threat of value is partly where the fear comes from. NH: Is this threat justified? Genevieve: All fears are ultimately both rational and irra- tional. In the same way, you could say - is it reasonable to say "technology is all good," "technology will make us better people, more efficient, it'll be fa- bulous?" That's the story we inevitably tell about technology. The other story we tell about is that it will change everything and that it might be bad. I think all new technology is accom- panied by both of those stories, by a kind of "eve- rything will be better" and "everything will be worse." And both of those stories are true and both of those stories are false. All at the same time. Because there are certainly ways techno- logy hasn't been good for us. We don't have enough time to be bored, we have a sense of being overwhelmed, we have a sense of having many demands on our time and our brains, and there are ways it's been really good because we can now do things we couldn’t have possibly done twenty years ago. I think we have to allow that modern technology comes with both of those things, with both fear and won- der. The story is not really complete without both of those pieces, and they are both partially true and partially false. NH: What we can observe now is the so-called counter trend – that people consciously stop using technology for a period of time. Do you think it will change from a micro trend into a bigger trend in the future? Genevieve: I think the adoption of new technologies go through a cycle. There's a period very early, when it's all utopian and wonderful, “Oh my God, everyone should have it, YAY!!! We can all be fabulous,” that is immediately fol- lowed by a period when we go "oh-oh, this is really bad,” and it's kind of a horror story. Then, we emerge out of that period and it becomes clear where the technology stabilised The adoption of new technologies go through a cycle. There's a period very early, when it's all utopian and wonderful that is immediately followed by a period when we go "oh-oh, this is really bad". Then, we emerge out of that period and it becomes clear where the technology stabilised and was used forward through both a kind of overblown hype and the overblown negativity, and we land up on something stable. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 24. Trendbook 201324 and was used forward through both a kind of overblown hype and the overblown negativity, and we land up on so- mething stable. But that takes a while for technologies to settle out through countries and cultures and households and communities and decide what the right level is. I think one of the challenges at the moment is that we feel like we've had this technology for twenty years. The reality is in most places it’s less than ten, and the reality is that for most of the average human beings it's not even that. And if you look historically, it takes easily a decade, or even two or three before we stabilise in our reactions to the use of new technology. The introduction of television took a really long time and we're arguing about it now, it's like fifty years on - is television good or bad for us, how much television, how far and where should I sit in front of it, should I put my kids in front of it and leave them there. And It doesn't surprise me that we’re now going through this period of questioning the value of some of these new technologies, because it came with such utopic and enthusiastic stories; we're in the natural period of asking questions about what was overblown promises. We know that historically, we'll emerge from this kind of backlash against some of these technologies at a different point. What's much more intere- sting to me is the appearance of apps that start to question the notion of permanence in the digital realm, for things like Snapchat. All of those are about creating appearances of digital technology that are totally transitory, that will come and go rather than exist forever. I think what will become very interesting as when we move through this period is where do we end up when we're done. NH: So what will our future look like? We can see our future in science fiction movies, and none of them is optimistic. Genevieve: Happy science fiction doesn't sell. People don't want to see a happy future, that doesn't make good movies. So, I think what is much more likely that science fiction tells us is that it's a safe place in some way for us to play at our fears. It is rarely a place where we play at our hopes. NH: Do you think there's a happy future then? Genevieve: I believe in a realistic future. The future will al- ways be a complicated mix of good things and bad things. History tells us that. Some of the technology will be splendid and some will have unintended, not-so-happy consequen- ces. So, to me, I'm not sure I believe in a utopic or a dystopic future. I think you have to have both stories. One of the challenges, mostly about the language of the future taught to us by science fiction, is fear. NH: You are an anthropologist, and there's also Amber Case, who calls herself a cyborg anthropologist. She believes that we are compounded with our smartphones, our tablets, and all the technology, and so we have already become cyborgs. Do you also believe that we are some kind of trans humans now? Genevieve: I believe in less than she does. I know why she makes that case, but I  think what it means to be human is more compli- cated than that. We have always been, as human be- ings, a complicated mix of the physical and the virtual. We have had physical bodies, we have had physical objects in our hands. But we believed in things we couldn't see. And we told ourselves stories to explain the world around us that were about the virtual. We had gods, we had worlds that were animated by spirits, we imagined relationships with nature, with gods, and with each other that weren't about what we could physically see. I think humans have always had a strong relationship to the “virtual,” today the virtual means something different than it did two hundred years ago, and I think we have always augmented ourselves with things. I grew up in Australia with aboriginal people who had a spear in their hands and who augmented their bodies and their physical selves with objects. Three hundred years ago, the men who were the knights of the realm had swords and horses, which were the extensions of themselves. Now that augmentation happens in the digital world. We are augmented by our Facebook profiles and we're also augmented in the physical world by our mobile phones. Do I think the balance of that makes us more cyborg than human? No, and I'm not sure it ever will. NH: So what you mean is that we are the same humans like hundreds years ago, but the times have changed? Genevieve: Yes, I think what human beings care about chan- ges incredibly slowly. There are some things that we care about as people that haven't changed over the millennia. And no amount of new technology will change that. It pro- bably makes me very old-fashioned to say that. NH: I don’t think so. I feel the same way and I wanted to hear that. Genevieve: I think it's really easy, to tell you in the field we all live in, to be seduced by the speed of technology and to There are some things that we care about as people that haven't changed over the millennia. And no amount of new technology will change that. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 25. Trendbook 201325 feel like everything is changing all the time. I think it's really important to remember that there are things that human beings do and have done for a really long time. They have been part of families and communities; they have wanted to be surrounded by people who share their values; they have wanted to believe in things that were bigger than themsel- ves; they have used stuff and objects to talk about who they were to other people and themselves. Those things - they don't change. Those things are incredibly deeply rooted in our cultures and our societies. Arguably, there's a reason why some technologies have failed. I think it's not that they were unnecessarily poorly engineered, but it's that they didn’t do things we care about. NH: Maybe this fear is, as you said, driven culturally. For example, in Japan or Korea they've adopted technology really fast. I think they are not as afraid of it as we are here in Europe. Genevieve: I think that's absolutely true. The history of Ja- pan is full of the introduction of very similar technologies that we used to introduce in Europe, with a very different reaction. I think that's partly about different notions and about what makes people people, about what is the na- ture of humanity, and what is the kind of human condition. I think it's very much about what happened in Western Europe after the reformation. Starting in the 1500s onwards, there's a very strong idea in the West that I think therefore I am, cognition equals humanity, the ability to think and reason is what makes us people. In Japan and Korea, there are very different ideas about what makes human beings human. And so the technology is part and parcel and the extension of humanity, not a challenge to it. The idea that you have robots taking care of you doesn't mean anything than robots taking care of you. So there's a very different kind of arc of adoption. I even think inside Europe there are different anxieties. I think there's a very particular rea- ction to privacy and big data in places like Germany, which has such a particular history with that. But they look very differently than they do in France. Different cultures pro- duce different fears. And they're partly based on our history, which makes sense. NH: Thank you. Which predictions for 2012 have come true?
  • 26. Trendbook 201326 Internet of Things - on the Internet, nobody knows you’re a.. washing machine There used to be an image circulating the web once that some speakers still use in their presentations at IT conferences. It shows a dog sitting in front of a computer and a caption "On the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog". Today, this symbolic dog should be replaced by an equally symbolic washing machine.
  • 27. Trendbook 201327 About the trend Every year for three years now, we’ve been hearing that this year is the year of the mobile. Every year, however, this forecast fails to come true. And to be honest – it is unlikely to ever come true because, since 2010, we’ve been dealing with the so-called third wave of the Internet – the Internet of Things (IoT, Internet of things, Internet of objects)1.The result is that what we have nowadays is the era of the post-mobile. There is not one definition of the Internet of Things, but it most often goes like this – it is a network of physical objects (things) which, thanks to their embedded sensors and Inter- net access, can communicate both with a human being and among themselves. In practice, it means nothing else than the fact that virtually anything today can be connected to the Internet, making it really intelligent (it has access to in- formation and databases, which it can analyse in real time). What is also important in the case of the Internet of Things is that Internet access makes it possible for devices to com- municate with themselves independently, without human intervention (see the video The Social Web of Things). We can imagine a situation in which electronic product codes (EPCs) will make the products that shouldn’t be kept close to each other (e.g. flammables) automatically start an alarm when this rule gets broken. The scale of the trend is huge. It is estimated that by 2020, the world will have produ- ced 50 billion connected de- vices, which means around seven such devices for one person. By that time, the value of the connected de- vices market is predicted to amount to $14 trillion (Cisco data, March 2013). As stated in the Forrester research Buil- ding Value from Visibility (October 2012), more than half of enterprises plan to implement IoT solutions over the course of the next two years (see Figure 8). Diagram 1 The evolution of things with Internet access. From a computer to a thing. Key words internet of objects, internet of things, IOT (internet of things), M2M (machine-to- machine network) 1. The term Internet of Things was first used in 1999. Since 2010, the phenomenon of IoT has been growing in significance, although it has been more of a micro trend for the past three years. 2013 is predicted to be a landmark year for IoT. desktop computer mobile device e.g. a smartphone or a tablet dedicated device e.g. Nike Fuelband connected object i.e. any physical object connected to the Internet, e.g. a light bulb, socks, travel bag, packet of pills, etc. Internet of Things
  • 28. Trendbook 201328 Accompanying trends: nomophobia (no mobile phone phobia) – the fear of being out of mobile phone range or of having your mobile running out of battery; access over ownership – an increased need to have an access to something rather than to own it Reasons behind the trend First of all – technological factors, including an incredibly fast development of software solutions and the solutions which make it possible to analyse data in real time; the de- velopment and miniaturisation of hardware technology (GPS, RFID chips, other devices which register status); and the ability to store/convert data in the cloud. Second of all – psychological factors. A modern consumer expects constant access to the Internet and information no matter the place and time. Due to his permanent lack of time, he wants solutions which are intelligent and practical. Examples of the trend The examples are virtually countless and can be found in all industries. My personal favourites are: BlackSocks – the socks with an embedded RFID chip which makes the pairing- -up process easier (say ‘no more’ to losing your socks in the washing machine :-)), hop! suitcase – you don’t have to drag it yourself as it stays in constant contact with your phone and follows you by itself, and finally botanicalls – a special sensor placed in flowers which sends us a text message or tweets us whenever the plant needs watering. One of the categories which is adapting the IoT trend particularly fast is the so-called smart home. It’s not only about connected refrigerators, washing machines, or dishwashers, but other objects too, e.g. bathroom scales (see the picture above: the Withings scales which monitors our weight loss) or light bulbs. Figure 8 More than half of companies plan to implement IoT solutions during the next 2 years. Source: Building Value from Visibility, 2012 Enterprise Internet of Things Adoption Outlook, Forrester Research, October 2012 we plan to implement IoT solutions in the next 12 months we plan to implement IoT solutions in the next 2 years we have already implemented IoT solutions we plan to implement IoT solutions in the next 2-5 years we don’t know we don’t plan to implement IoT solutions in the longer term Internet of Things
  • 29. Trendbook 201329 I’ve decided to mention the above curiosities in order to demonstrate that the Internet of Things can be applied vir- tually anywhere. However, the three main categories to be mentioned in this context are the pharmaceutical industry (the so-called digital health), home appliances (the so-called smart home), and the automotive industry. The IoT solu- tions used in these cases completely change the consumer experience. When it comes to pharmacy – the American company Proteus Digital Health manufactures special chips which are placed on the pills patients are about to take. After swallowing such a pill, stomach acid activates the chip and enables it to communicate with the receiving station stuck to our arm, for example, from where the signal goes to our mobile phone – in this way, it sends reports to our doctor. JWhen it comes to smart home, this year’s CES included the presentations of such firms as Panasonic, Toshiba, and Samsung, in which they showcased their connected home appliances. We could see connected fridges, washing ma- chines, dishwashers, ovens, etc. A lot has been already said about the possibility of having fridges with Internet access; today, however, they are be- coming a reality and they are truly intelligent. Not only do they know we’re running out of OJ, but we can use them to buy a new carton. Moreover, the device makes suggestions about what we can cook using the products we currently have in the fridge or allows us to use our friends’ recipes. During this year’s CES, a lot of time was devoted to con- nected cars. This category should be looked at from two perspectives. Firstly, we should consider a connected car as a place where we can just hang out and soon won’t even have to focus on driving (auto-driving cars); therefore, the content is becoming increasingly important (hence the col- laboration of Hyundai with Google, or Chrysler’s solution driveuconnect.com). Secondly, due to geolocation, a con- nected car can be treated like a mobile shopping bag. We could easily imagine that while driving past a petrol station, we will get notified that it has a discount on petrol today and you can buy it £1 cheaper (this sort of solutions are already offered by Roximity, which cooperates with Ford, Kraft, and Walmart). Figure 9 The benefits achieved from implementing Internet of Things solutions (data for Europe). Source: Building Value from Visibility, 2012 Enterprise Internet of Things Adoption Outlook, Forrester Research, October 2012 Internet of Things
  • 30. Trendbook 201330 At this point, it’s worth mentioning that the Internet of Things generates all sorts of prob- lems. One of them – the privacy issue – is commented on by Lidia Geringer de Oeden- berg, Treasurer of the European Parliament. As well as the issue of privacy, however, the CES 2013 focused on yet another thing – short battery life-span – and the fact that there is still no technology that could address this issue. Applying the trend in marke- ting solutions The above Forrester report (Building Value from Visibility) clearly shows that marke- ters see a multitude of ways in which this trend can be applied in their campaigns (see Figure 9). The areas which I consider the most attractive are all those related to the product itself: • the possibility of improving/changing the product or service quality; adjusting the Internet access in a car has led to a shift in how we perceive this category of products. What we are observing is, most of all, the demand for content. OneoftheseveralproblemsconnectedtoIoTwhichmanufacturersareawareofisshortbattery life-span.TheInternationalCES2013featureda presentationshowcasingtheSpareOne. mobile phone. It is powered by a single AA battery which can hold its charge for up to 15 years if unused, or for up to 10 hours of talk time when in use. Internet of Things
  • 31. Trendbook 201331 The Internet of Things also enables objects to communicate among themselves with no human participation. We can imagine that when the alarm clock in our mobile phone goes off, a signal sent to our kettle puts it on for a morning coffee (see AllJoyn by Qualcomm) product to the needs of a particular user – e.g. last year, the British insurance company The Co-Operative Insurance introduced a car insurance package for young drivers, in which premiums are calculated based not on their age, but on their actual skills. The participants of the pay as you drive programme received a special device which, for one and a half months, evaluated their driving in four areas: braking and acceleration, cornering, average speed, and the time of day in which they usually drove a car. The data was sent to the insurer, who used the information to calculate the premium. Moreover, the participants could log in to their individual panels to check their scores and take advice on how to drive better; • introducing new products or services otherwise im- possible to implement without IoT – e.g. FedEx’s SenseAware service, that enables the real-time monitoring of such elements as ambient temperature, light intensity, humidity, pressure, etc. (particularly important in the case of transporting medical products, e.g. in transplantation, livestock, food, etc.); • personalising the message, product as a medium – al- ready today, QR codes or the visual search technology make it possible to encode information in the product. The problem is that this piece of information is the same for all consumers. On Father’s Day last year, Diageo, in co-operation with the firm Evrythng, allowed consumers to personalise their message on 100,000 bottles of their alcohol (you could record your private video and attach it to a particular bottle – read the case study); go to page 36 to read about Chris Cobb’s commentary on how we can use the RFID readers placed in Levi’s clothes for logistic purposes and beyond. • providing the consumer with new experiences and new opportunities – something that Nike has been doing for a long time now, first in Nike+, now in Nike FuelBand; we can also see it in miCoach by Adidas. Internet of Things
  • 32. Trendbook 201332 Internet of Things – legal regulations Lidia Geringer de Oedenberg Treasurer in the Bureau of the European Parliament, Member of the Committee on Legal Affairs, Budgets, and Petitions The term Internet of Things appeared for the first time in 1999. Since then, a lot has changed in this domain, and even more novelties are expected in the coming years. Although the topic is becoming increasingly popular, and more and more smart devices become fixtures in our homes - this new trend has not brought a corresponding set of regulations. In the UK, where NEUL - the world's first wireless network able to send data to the so-called white spaces (unused channels in TV spectrum) and to cover an entire city (only Cambridge so far) – is being developed, market regulations in this matter are in the consultation phase. The result will be a report which will make a starting point for future le- gislation in this new domain. In the legal systems of other EU Member States, there is no legislation prepared for the advent of these new technologies either. The European Commission (EC) is observing the development of similar technologies with great interest, but we will have to wait a little longer for some joint laws in this sector. So far, the Eu- ropean Commission has only issued one Communication to Internet of Things
  • 33. Trendbook 201333 the European Parliament and the Council in 2009, entitled: Internet of Things - an action plan for Europe COM(2009) 0278 final. From the legislator’s perspective, the following issues inclu- ded in the Communication seem to be problematic: • bject naming and identifying, • authorities responsible for assigning appropriate identifiers in intelligent machines, • ways to search for information about particular things, • ensuring personal information security and controlling the ethical mechanisms related to using our personal in- formation on the Internet. Under the Seventh Framework Programme (CIP), the Com- mission also plans to launch a research project on the chal- lenges in the field of social problems associated with this new technology. In June, the public consultation initiated by the European Commission in early April 2012 was ended. It was attended by over 600 people (more on the results of the consultation at http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/ en/news/conclusions-internet-things-public-consultation). The consultation is to be used by the EC to issue a recom- mendation on the Internet of Things, to be published this summer. Unfortunately, the exact time-frame for the le- gislative work on the document has not been specified; we only know that the Commission’s legislative proposal will not be presented until at least mid-2014. The matter will be taken up by the next tenure deputies. The main risks stemming from such advanced technolo- gies are related to the violations of our privacy and, more specifically, to the question of what kind of data will be collected, stored, or transmitted by such devices. Today, we are already dealing with a crisis of privacy protection. I have been recently working on the amendments to the report on the Regulation on the protection of personal data. The document presented by the Commission was very insightful, but required certain improvements. However, before we started working on it, the project had already gained a lot of media attention, triggering a great deal of controversy. The document’s aim was to show how to reasonably re- concile the protection of our personal data, which is our inalienable right guaranteed by Art. 8 of the Charter of Fun- damental Rights of the European Union, with the use and free flow of this data, which is associated with our daily activities and business approach. The report received 3,133 amendments, which confirms the significance of these re- gulations. The issue raised in the draft regulation which is both parti- cularly sensitive and innovative is the right to be forgotten. I have submitted as many as four amendments concerning this issue alone. The right to be forgotten, as proposed by the Commission is not feasible in practice. It is not possible to have all the information put by us or about us on the Internet removed with a single request to delete them sent to our administrator. In the attempt to clarify this regulation and make it practical, I have offered a few legal constraints that help the administrator to actually get rid of the content he manages or for the transmission of which he is respon- sible. Naturally, such a request to delete the content must relate only to those data for the processing of which there is no other legal basis, except for the subject’s consent (for instance, the data in the registry of debtors or the data on the legally valid conviction of a person). The report will be put to a vote in the Committee on Civil Liberties (LIBE) on 24-25 April, and the final adoption of the text by the EU Parliament is expected to take place in the second half of the year. The draft agenda, the report, and the amendments are ava- ilable at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/or- ganes/libe/libe_20130320_0900.htm Additional information is available on the Commission’s webpage at: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-12-360_pl.htm Internet of Things
  • 34. Trendbook 201334 „Today, people are living their lives via screens” John McHale and Chris Cobb, Creative Directors at Sapient Nitro, will tell us about where new technologies are headed and whether our future will resemble the worlds of such films as Wall-e or Minority Report. Natalia Hatalska: wondered why there're so many peo- ple from the advertising and media industry are present on the show that was previously known as the consumer electronics show. John McHale: If we look at the way technology is changing, all these new things coming out every year, I think for peo- ple like advertisers or brands, they need to know and need to keep a finger on the pulse of things like that because that's the way technology is going, because that's the world consumers live in. I think to not be here and not see what's coming next would be foolish. You wouldn't know what's next and you would be trailing and bleeding. Chris Cobb: Exactly, and we actually see that a lot of tradi- tional agencies kind of play 'catch-up.' So there are a lot of Internet of Things
  • 35. Trendbook 201335 agencies out there that stay in touch with this stuff, espe- cially because clients' expenditures go from traditional to di- gital. So it's a matter of paying more attention to digital and technologies because these are new important channels. And these are also spaces where one can create a content in, so you have to understand what is technology, and how is this technology enabling these new types and new forms of content people are engaging in. John McHale: I believe that it used to be such a one-way conversation with marketing and advertising when the company came up with a message and then they threw it out. They were talking to you, not talking with you at all. And now it changed. Brands started communicating back and forth with consumers when social channels opened up. And it was about releasing the brand out to the wild a little bit. Now it's even getting to the place where brands are facilitating conversation between consumers, they are becoming the vehicle by which brands and consumers can communicate and I think that is the reason why people are here and see all those new technologies that make it better or easier. NH: But now it's still more about being first since we cannot talk about the scale because not so many people are using all these devices. Some even say that when it comes to new technologies, we have to be first and we will justify why we used it later. Do you agree with this statement or do you think it's more about the benefits of the new technologies and about the experience? John: Well, while you were talking, I just thought about being a rep for music, for a label, who tries to find the band. And it's a risky job because you can't be sure if the band is going to be the next hit. There is a huge risk involved in that. So I think it's more about what Malcolm Gladwell said, You don't want to be first, you want to be third, because people who are first tend to make mistakes, the second person improves on it, and when you are third, then you can come up with something amazing. So I think that maybe we are here to watch what's going on, what is great and loud, who's going to do that first, and then anticipate that maybe we're going to do that third. Chris: There are some great examples, especially in social networks - we had Friendster, My Space, and then Facebook. There are all these examples of “let people carve out the path for you and do all the work for you and once it's done you can say this is the channel I see the opportunity in to improve upon. John: So back to your qu- estion – you want to know what's first but you don't want to make mistakes as first. It's better when some- body else is doing that and paying for that. NH: OK, so let's take au- gmented reality as an example. Do you believe in this technology? Because 3-5 years ago, there was a big boom about AR, and now it is used but in a totally different way. Chris: When augmented reality first came out, it was a lit- tle clumsy – you had to have glyphs and readers for those glyphs. The initial static that came out was overwhelming and I think that's always like that with technology adoption. But as we are seeing it now, it's more about practical usage, for a very specific use – for a one-off, and what I mean by 'one-off' is creating the experience and via this experience you're going to communicate something. The greatest example I've seen of this was National Geographic. They build this augmented reality experience where, for example, a lion would come up and walk around you, or astronauts would bounce in front of you. NH: But I'm not sure if this is still an experience. Everything is on the screen. A very similar example - the so-called au- gmented reality mirrors or virtual changing rooms. I'm not buying it, because it doesn't give me anything special. Chris: I'll give you an example. We were testing a Coca-Cola freestyle machine. It's a touch screen soda fountain from which you can choose over 120 flavors. It's also an augmen- ted reality. Another example - in American football, there's a first down line and then this line of scrimmage. When you are watching television, these two lines are showing you how far the ball needs to go. That's augmented reality, and people tend to forget that because they are mainly focused on how to use their mobile phones. I think all augmented reality is more of the passive form. And this passive con- sumption is extremely valuable. NH: But I mean more active consumption. For example, digital storefronts. Adidas has introduced it lately in Ger- many - you can buy clothes simply by swiping them into your mobile phone. You don't have to scan the QR code. Chris: I know what you're talking about. This is brilliant because technology is extending the life of this physical People who are first tend to make mistakes, the second person improves on it, and when you are third, then you can come up with something amazing. Internet of Things
  • 36. Trendbook 201336 store. It might be closed but at the same time it is ticking 24h thanks to the web possibilities. NH: So there’s a benefit for the consumer. Chris: The interesting thing about retail and putting digi- tal things like that is that the retail is going to tackle some challenges. Technology is really enabling this new way for people to shop. And it might even be the way that people are expecting it right now. John: And it's all about the extra content when standing in an aisle, holding up this shirt, you look at it and learn more about it: how to take care of it, the material, other sizes, and so on. It's about adding premium content around things that I am exploring. For me, it's about delivering the brand awareness, understanding the brand, and educating about the brand. Chris: We were working on Levi’s. And they're going to start tagging their clothes with RFID. They're doing it operationally because they are doing stock loss and inventory tracking, that type of thing. But it might be as well things like additio- nal information, users' reviews or videos, whatever. John: I really appreciate when a brand is educating me so I feel more inclined to go back to them because I feel vast interest in that brand, because they've made me smarter, made me look better… NH: Don't you think that all of these smart things and technologies make us think that we are smarter but, in fact, they make us much more stupid? Chris: Well, it depends. When you use maps, you are relying on a piece of technology that tells you how to get there. But when it comes to things like information and building on top of something, like we were talking about the retail, for example, technology is helping me understand details. I would agree in a sense that technology does enable lazi- ness sometimes. But, on the other hand, I think it is doing a lot to educate. There have been plenty of studies and insights how technology is actually lifting people out of situations that they are currently in. They may not have access to information in school but they have it through other digital means. NH: We also expect that technology will make our life easier. Look how we interact with the devices. We don't have to learn how to interact with them anymore, we just wave our hands, we talk to them. In the near future, we will just think and they will respond. Chris: Raymond Kurzweil has written the theory on singu- larity. He describes an event where we actually have to fuse with technology because artificial intelligence beco- mes robust and starts thin- king on its own and starts to become smarter than us. In order for us to keep up with this technology, we have to fuse with it. And it's funny when we are talking about the technology we know right now. We are thinking digital because we are living in a digital rena- issance of technology, but technology has always been a part of human history: the car, the factories. It's not just digital. NH: I think the main difference in using technology now and in the past is that nowadays technology has a human face, don't you think? For example, there is some research that says 25% of us would like to have a one-to-one con- versation with vending machines. We would like vending machines to respond. John: Have you seen the movie “Wall-e”? NH: Yes, I have. John: That's what will happen with us? We will be just sit- ting around and becoming obese? [laughter] I don't want to start things against technology, but I hate e-mail right now. If you want to tell me something, come and talk to me. I would rather talk to people because we e-mail and text, and it's all around for so long so you can't actually read people's emotions. I'm going to the point in my life when I need to see people respond and feel the emotions that come out of them. Chris: Well, I feel like what we are doing right now, especially the social, e-mail, and all types of communication channels we are using, it’s just reached the peak. And we might be going even higher, but I'm wondering if this whole idea of publishing everything about yourself and constantly being on-line will, at some point, go down and then the privacy will become cool again and the interaction will become Internet of Things It's funny when we are talking about the technology we know right now. We are thinking digital because we are living in a digital renaissance of technology, but technology has always been a part of human history.
  • 37. Trendbook 201337 cool again... You know, I haven't posted anything personal on Facebook in three years. I have a Twitter account and have never tweeted. NH: Why? Chris: Well, because it’s noise, more and more noise. NH: Or you are trying to protect your privacy... Chris: Yes, I protect my privacy, but also I just have enough noise as it is in my life. So for me, it's like I'm just adding more and more… John: It's also brand you need to keep up with, right? When you are social like that… When you are on Instagram or Facebook or Twitter, you are brand. Before, there were just people, that was John and that was Chris, and now we are the brand of John, the brand of Chris, how do you want to brand yourself? You have to have the right photo as your profile photo, you have to say the right things. Whenever you're typing things, you need to keep it in mind what is my voice's tone. Is this in line with what I said 2 months ago because people will backtrack that and check that - well, it's not what you said then, you were a little different then. NH: Do you think that this de-teching trend is getting stronger then, and we are going to stop using technology? Are we afraid of our privacy loss, about who we are, and that we have to pretend all the time? John: In social world, it is no longer about making oursel- ves happy but taking care of what other people think about us. Do they think I'm funny? Are they going to follow me? So, the more things we say or write they want to read, the more followers we get. There's a bunch of schizophrenics and frustrated people out there. Chris: I struggle when I get off Facebook because I am like “I’ll miss something or people will forget about me.” But my life wasn't necessarily enriched by all of them. The truth is that I found more enrichment off-line then I did on-line. John: The problem is that what people are doing now is experiencing their life through the screen. It's like we are not taking time to experience things but we tweet about them. I think that phones are taking us away from what we Is the future that awaits us more like the one we know from the film about the robot Wall-e? Internet of Things The problem is that people are experiencing their life through the screen. It's like we are not taking time to experience things but we tweet about them.
  • 38. Trendbook 201338 are doing right now. It's like “OMG, I'm in Vegas” and then camera click, click, click… and I'm not really experiencing it. We’re just missing out on our lives! You know it could be great because in 30 years we will be able to go back, look on these photos and actually experience our lives, but at the moment we are missing it. I think technology makes that happen. NH: Ok, so let's talk a little bit about the ads that are following us and know who we are, where we are, and what we have just bought. Do you think this is our future? Will it be like in the 'Minority report' movie? Chris: I think yes, all of this stuff is coming. And I think that this is already happening since we are having this conver- sation about Facebook privacy settings. However, what's going to have to happen is the conversation about opting in and out of these things. For example, when I walk into a store and there is a billboard with some kind of digital display saying: Hey Chris! Looks like you were here 2 weeks ago and you bought this shirt. We just got this pants that'll look great with that shirt. Go to the section X It's doing it automatically and the biggest conversation is going to be if I will be able to turn that off in such a way that I really know for sure that it’s not going to be broadcast, that all the things connected with privacy will be fulfilled. John: It's funny because I think when George Orwell wrote 1984, we were like Oh no! Cameras everywhere?! Oh, that's crazy! And look at us today. We've got cameras everywhere and we are used to that. We are not so freaked out like we used to. And this is the same with the new technology – it may be strange for us at the beginning, but it will become normal for us some day. I think we are getting to the point when we will be upset when it doesn’t happen, when we walk into a store and it doesn't recognize us. Because, at that point, it will be like having a concierge who knows who we are and what we want and every store will be like that. Chris: I think all of this stuff is coming if it is supported by people. So if people support and trust what is going to be done, that it will be done with the best intention, things will keep moving forward. However, I don't think we know the long-term effects mentally. It's like, logically speaking, we’re removing ourselves more and more from the natural world. We are moving into the digital, automated kind of world where you have informa- tion at your fingertips or things cured automatically for you. This ‘detaching’ is more and more from the natural world and there are studies showing that when you are getting more and more out of the natural world, it is creating new types of disorders, new problems with people, new stresses that people never had. So it's breaking point. Those are just realms that are leading us into different paths. I don't know if we know what these paths are yet. NH: So the future doesn't seem right? John: That's why I brought up Orwell's book. We were all saying “that's crazy,” but everybody is filming us and now we're used to it. Actually, now we like it because now we know where and why the car accident has happened, we can fill in an insurance claim. When we are walking in the street, we know that there are cameras and we feel safer. So it's really hard to say that it isn't right. Maybe it's not right for us right now, but it will be perfectly great when it comes to our safety. Chris: You brought up the whole car insurance and look at the telematics. This little modal thing that you can put into your car and it reads a diagnosis of your car. The selling point of this technology is that it is rewarding your good driving behavior. And that's great! That's the optimistic way to look at it! So we need to sell technology optimistically - that it makes everything look better. But it should also be about education so that the consumer can see both sides of the coin of technology. If you are more informed, you have a better portrait of how to use it.re more informed you have a better portrait how to use it. NH: Thank you. The new technology may be strange for us at the beginning, but it will become normal for us some day. Internet of Things
  • 39. Trendbook 201339 Wearable computers - the era of humanity+ It is predicted that in 2080 part of the humanity will be more computerised than biological. It is quite possible, considering how many people today have artificial hips, artificial heart valves, prosthetic limbs, or surgically corrected vision. Analysing our almost complete fusion with a mobile phone, some anthropologists claim that we are already modern cyborgs.
  • 40. Trendbook 201340 About the trend The gadgets serving as our sixth sense, so far only seen in The Terminator, the movies based on Marvel’s comics, or in early Bonds (in Skyfall, the only gadget Bond gets is ... a radio), have become our reality. Wearable computers are nothing more than connected devices always in the ‘on’ mode, easy to put on and wear, which make the appropriate (different) measurements in real time. They also have the capacity of two-way, human-machine communication. These may be watches, sunglasses, clothes (including smart fabrics), contact lenses, rings, bracelets, smart tattoos, head- bands, etc. At the CES, however, it was clear that the biggest battle manufacturers were fighting in this category was for the wrist (a large part of the solutions in the wearable tech category is worn on the wrist), but there were also such devices as headphones for monitoring our heart and listening to music during jogging (PerformTek by Valencell). According to the IMS report - World Market for Wearable Technology: A Quantitative Market Assessment, 2012 – as many as 14 million of such devices were sold in 2011 alone. It is estimated that by 2016 revenues from this category will amount to at least $6 billion. Among the big players working on wearable devices are Google (Google Glass), Nike (Nike Fuelband), and Nokia (it has filed a patent application for the so-called vibrating tattoo that notifies the user when someone is calling him or has sent him a text message), which only proves the significance of this trend. However, the fastest-growing areas in this category are mainly the healthcare and medical segments (which is certainly related to the aging population). This category is also to rule the roost in the forthcoming years (see Figure 10). According to the data cited during the panel Where Tech Meets Fashion, the number of wearable tech devices to be sold in 2013 is to reach 40 million, and over the next three years – the number will soar to 200 million. It should be emphasised that the Polish term of this trend - textronics – in fact concerns only one of its parts. Textronics is about smart clothing and textiles (e.g. Aegis Parka – a ja- cket for asthma sufferers which measures air pollution and automatically launches a built-in respirator if the pollution level is too high). This me- ans that all textronic solu- tions are at the same time wearable tech solutions, but wearable tech solutions are not necessarily textronics (see e.g. Google Glass, the products offered by Larklife, Fitbit etc.). Accompanying trends quantified self/ myself, algorithmed life Another category closely related to wearable tech is the trend referred to as quantified self/ algorithmed life. As men- tioned above, the computers that we wear make different types of measurements and analyse data in real time. As a result, we can keep track of just about anything: how many calories we’ve burned, how many steps we’ve walked, for how many hours we slept, how we slept, how high we can jump, how strong we are, what is our blood pressure, respiratory rate, etc. Since all these devices are connected, we can share all the information with our friends on social networking sites (during the CES 2013 panel Our Bodies, Our Data, Steven LeBoeuf, the CEO at Valencell, described it as the public masturbation of your private data). The amount of generated information is so vast that, in the context of this trend, experts are talking about a shift from big data to my data. Wearable computers Key words wearable computers, wearable tech, extronics, smart clothing, we are our own computers
  • 41. Trendbook 201341 Reasons behind the trend Just by looking at Figure 10 alone and considering the fact that the most booming category of wearable tech is he- althcare and medicine, we can easily conclude that one of the main reasons for this trend to occur is the demand for monitoring our own health due to the aging population and increased incidence of chronic modern-age diseases (such as diabetes, allergies, etc.). From the user perspec- tive, another big-league trend prevalent today is being fit, as well as controlling and improving the quality of life. In late March 2013, the site quantifiedself.com published the survey results which demonstrate that the main reason for using wearable computers is the desire to better under- stand ourselves (see Figure 11). Other key characteristics of contemporary consumers which fuel this trend include their narcissistic approach to the world, exhibitionism, and oversharing their personal information. Examples of the trend Google (e.g. Google Glass) and Apple (Apple smartwatch is to enter the market by the end of 2013) are among those tycoons which have become very much engrossed in the wearable computers trend. The Forrester report Wearable Computing: The Next Devices And Platforms That Matter To Your Product Strategy (April 17, 2012) also points out that The device iBitz, tracking our physical activity, is to be worn on a shoe. It’s available in both child and adult versions (the photo shows the child ver- sion). It’s clearly visible that, in this category, the design is the key element. Ultimately, all these devices are to be worn on our body. Figure 10 World market for wearable technology - revenues by application; mid-range forecast. The size of the bubble indicates relative market size. Source: IMS - World Market for Wearable Technology: A Quantitative Market Assessment, 2012 Wearable computers
  • 42. Trendbook 201342 the biggest war in the wearables category will be waged not between equipment manufacturers, but between the “big five” platforms: Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon. com, and Facebook (hardware without software is merely a technological curiosity of no significance). Last year, we had a chance to see an interesting campaign by Ballantine's, which teamed up with CuteCircuit (authors of the famous Twitter dress for Nicole Scherzinger – see video) to create the world's first tShirtOS – a digital T-shirt displaying content from social media. As regards trend quantified myself, I get the impression that the market is filled with almost infinite number of companies. Here’s to mention just a few: • BodyMedia – a device – an armband, to be precise – which captures 5,000 data points about us in just one minute, analysing our sleep, weight, calories, and daily activities; • Larklife – a wristband which is like a personal fitness coach – it analyses many factors simultaneously, so when you pull an all-nighter, it will tell you what kind of breakfast will get you back on your feet and help you stay energised throughout the entire day; • Fitbug – helps us fulfil our own personal goals; • iBitz – available in two versions – for kids and adults; it mostly measures the number of steps we’ve taken during the day, but also our weight, general physical activity, and BMI. Activities can be tracked individually or for a group of people (family or a group of friends). What is interesting is the fact that the kid’s version is equipped with an additio- nal feature – a virtual pet called GeoBotz - which the child must keep alive with the right amount of his own physical activity during the day, healthy eating, and drinking water (an attempt to deal with childhood obesity). This trend, however, is churning out a whole bunch of useless contraptions, such as the device HapiTrack – we carry it around with us all day and whenever something nice happens to us, we press it (just to capture your happy moment...). The main battle in the category of wearable tech is being fought for the wrist, but there is also a lot of devices intended to be worn on our arm, head, face, or even ear. Figure 11 Main reasons behind using wearable technology devices Source: quantifiedself.com, March 26, 2013 What prompted you to start using a self-tracking device and to become interested in the quantified self trend? Wearable computers
  • 43. Trendbook 201343 Applying the trend in marketing solutions When it comes to this trend, the idea is to improve the qua- lity of our lives. Consumers are unlikely to reach for fancy gadgets, but for the solutions that genuinely allow them to pursue their goals and improve their life quality. Moreover, wearable technology allows to: • understand a consumer better due to the fact that he wears the device permanently; • position the product better (e.g. NikeFuelband – life is a sport and Fitbit – life is an experiment). The industries which should be particularly interested in this category include: sports (possibility to improve one’s own results), insurance (adjusting premiums to the user’s health), medicine/pharmacy (health monitoring, fighting with obe- sity), entertainment (including games - the opportunity to compete with others; personalgaming - the game tailored to a specific user and his abilities, mood, location, etc.). The design of wearables is the key element - users are unli- kely to carry something which is heavy or will make them look like they are starring in the 1980s science fiction movie (which is why Google Glass is very eager to team up with fashion designers or musicians – so that someone wearing a face computer doesn’t look ridiculous). There are, howe- ver, certain problems associated with this trend, e.g. privacy protection, or something more down-to-earth - how to wash clothes with a built-in computer? Wearable computers One of the market segments particularly active in this category is the sports industry. The picture shows a device monitoring the quality of our high jumps. It could potentially be used by basketball players. Diagram 2 Computer on our face. Evolution. computer on our desktop: PC computer on our knees: laptop, tablet, smartfon computer on our body: Nike Fuelband, Jawbone Up, Fitbit, Apple smartwatch computer on our face: Google Glass
  • 44. Trendbook 201344 Above anything else, clothing is always something that fulfils a particular function Wojciech Bednarz Designer at Vistula I believe that fashion has reached a point where it visually revolves around the things which were already de rigueur somewhere in the past. Season by season, we can see that one minute we go back to the 1950s or 1960s, then again we get inspired by the 1980, and that goes on and on. Naturally, I’m generalising a bit, but the truth is that the only dyna- mic change occurs in the realm of technologies related to the production of textiles or ready-made products. In the field that I’m working in, it is especially visible in the ways woollen fabrics are trimmed, in various coatings, and in the yarn itself, later used to produce a fabric. As of today, no one is surprised by the materials which were conside- red cutting-edge just a few years back. What I mean here is different types of membranes, coatings, breathable fa- brics, etc. Perhaps the next trend that gradually becomes the mainstream will be the fabrics that use electronic and Wearable computers
  • 45. Trendbook 201345 IT solutions. Granted, clothing has many aesthetic values. Above anything else, however, it is always something that fulfils a particular function. Once, it only used to protect against cold or heat; now, nobody focuses on such mundane properties anymore; people are looking for something else. Maybe the next step will be, for example, suits that have a mini personal computer embedded inside and whose touch screen has the same structure as the fabric? In my view, there is only one question - is it still fashion or maybe yet another wrapping for an electronic gadget? Or maybe, it's the next generation of clothes (which are no longer just clothes) which is to take us one step closer, literally and figuratively, to having a constant access to all the informa- tion that we need on a regular basis, and to stay in constant touch with our loved ones. Fashion, music, architecture – these are the areas that have always been the quickest to respond to changes in society and mentality. I will even hazard a guess that these doma- ins have been the means of conveying these changes and have always broken down various barriers. In recent years, fashion has become a giant money-making machine and has partly lost its idealistic function. It is this fact that raises another question: is the fashion that uses technology simply a fast reaction to what people actually need, or is it rather that the manufacturers of new technologies are cunningly trying to win new markets and new customers under the guise of such a strong tool as fashion? In my understanding, in the design process, function is just as important as the visual side and quality of the product. Anyway, I like the things that people wear only because they like them. Sometimes they do it out of vanity, for their own sheer pleasure of wearing them, paying no heed to their practical aspect. My job is to make the things I design practical, but I al- ways want to do it in such a way that the customer’s choice is not based on pragmatism, but his desire to have something he likes, something that will make him happy. If the future brings me the opportunity to use technology that, besides making clothes practical, will create a new visual or aesthetic quality, I’ll be happy to do it. Putting my personal opinion aside - I still think the majority of Poles will treat such clothing in terms of a fashion-related curio- sity, at least for some time. Naturally, I mean the symbolic majority. While they willingly use high-tech sportswear and appreciate Teflon coatings or Nano fabrics, clothing packed with electronics might seem a little odd to them. Wearable computers Clothing has many aesthetic values. Above anything else, however, it is always something that fulfils a particular function. Once, it was only used to protect against cold or heat; now, nobody focuses on such mundane properties anymore.
  • 46. Trendbook 201346 When dreams end... Zuzanna Skalska Head of Trends, VanBerlo, the Netherlands The modern world of technology has reached the prover- bial wall. Its entire development was possible only due to the miniaturisation of silicon, which is the fundamental element of today's computer processors. However, that process has also reached its limits. There’s nothing left to miniaturise and therefore it’s impossible to create anything truly revolutionary. That is why new materials are created, which brings new technological opportunities. The new crown prince of Silicon Valley is graphene, which won Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov the 2010 Nobel Prize in Physics for their experiments with this material. Graphene is the only substance which has a chance to re- place silicon since, as stated in Wikipedia, its transparency and excellent electrical conductivity make it suitable for the production of transparent touchscreens that can be rolled up or energy-saving sources of light. Furthermore, Wearable computers
  • 47. Trendbook 201347 graphene can be used to generate renewable energy from solar panels and to store it in high-performance batteries. Sensors contained in graphene can detect the presence of a single molecule of a harmful substance. Due to this pro- perty, graphene is used in environmental monitoring and protection. When added to plastics, graphene can convert them into electrical conductors; combined with aluminium, it can be used to build smart electrical grids. The electrons in graphene move at speeds up to 1/300 of the speed of light, which makes it possible to carry out many experiments that previously required the use of an accelerator. How does it all translate into practice? It means that we’ll be able to fit the power of today's computers or smartp- hones into minute surfaces. I will even be as bold as to use the word nano-surfaces, as this is exactly the direction this technology is heading towards. These days, technology is the added value, determining the product’s level of advancement. In the not so distant future, however, everything will have a hidden, cutting-edge, nano-scale technology. Consequently, what will make the product stand out is not technology, but the material and the way it was made. Technology will no longer be a barrier. Already today we can observe that several products which once belonged to entirely different areas merge into one. The examples include cameras, phones, books, maps, phone books, CD players, TVs, video recorders, notebooks, diaries, bank cheques, etc. All these “things,” alongside with thou- sands of more, have transformed into apps in our phones. Over the last decade, mobile phones have undergone a ve- ritable multi-transformation. They have become techno- logical mutants, an attempt to make all our dreams come true, and a testing ground for any industry. This ground serves as a completely unidentified garden of opportunities. Maybe one day, thanks to nanotechnology, a sin- gle finger move will be enough to change the co- lour of the wall covered with an AMOLED 5.0-based paint. Maybe all road signs will disappear because the future means of transport will communicate with one another anyway. It seems that the possibilities of the technologies to come will be bigger than our dreams. And without dreams, we can quickly become miserable. This is why we shouldn’t focus on technology, but on the beauty of the materials with which we can work. After all, it is the materials that shall reign in the future. Here comes the real renaissance 2.0. Wearable computers Maybe one day, thanks to nanotechnology, a single finger move will be enough to change the colour of the wall covered with an AMOLED 5.0-based paint. Maybe all road signs will disappear because the future means of transport will communicate with one another anyway.
  • 48. Trendbook 201348 Let’s leave technological clothes for the far-away future Marcin Paprocki and Mariusz Brzozowski, designers at PaprockiBrzozowski tell us about the adapting of the wearable tech trend among Poles. Natalia Hatalska: Do you think the trend known as textro- nics is also visible in Poland? Marcin Paprocki: We don’t see it in Poland on a daily basis. For now, these are rather curiosities more fun to watch than wear, associated with the Bond-movie gadgets rather than with practical solutions to be used in one’s clothing style or in real fashion. Many of these cutting-edge ideas are simply far-fetched mixtures of technology and clothes. Let’s take trousers with mobile phone pockets. OK – maybe it’s creative, but at the same time very corny. Mariusz Brzozowski: There are other, more sensible, and much straightforward ways in which fashion often uses modern technology - live Internet broadcasts, holograp- hic fashion shows, mappings, applications, Diane von Photo courtesy of Aldona Kaczmarczyk/Van Dorsen Talents Wearable computers
  • 49. Trendbook 201349 Furstenberg’s last show transmitted via Google Glass, or 3D shows. A few years ago, our brand PaprockiBrzozowski also participated in this type of a project, running a fashion show in 3D technology. We say a definite ‘yes’ to this sort of technology – to using such solutions to create an inte- resting setting for a fashion show and to convey fashion. However, technology as an embedded element of clothing is just a whim, which makes it harder to use a particular garment in everyday life. NH: Does it mean that Polish people are simply not ready for this trend yet? Mariusz Brzozowski: Fashion has to constantly surprise us – that’s its inherent role. Trends must be modern and forward-looking; no wonder then that they allude to new technologies, which are mushrooming at the speed of light. We think, however, that people don’t need it yet. A dress which is also a phone? For now, a fancy mobile phone case or a small pocket in a purse will do. Anything of a more mundane style, for that matter. Marcin Paprocki: Granted, consumers are getting increa- singly hungry for new technologies equipment-wise, but at the same time they need simpler and more practical clothes. Breathable, wrinkle- and stain-resistant fabrics are the right direction, as opposed to embedded chips or other solutions of this sort. Maybe it will work in Japan, where the gadget craze in fashion is reaching its peak. In Poland, however, such trends have a long way to come before they enter the mainstream. NH: Do you share my opinion that when it comes to textro- nics, the main problem today is that certain people might fear that wearing such gadgets will make them look like characters from B-rated sci-fi films? What are the key ele- ments when designing such clothes? Marcin Paprocki: Above all, as we’ve mentioned earlier, fun- ctionality is of the utmost importance. Genuine practicality – not a symbiosis between technology and fashion, whatever the cost. Let’s leave the curiosities for museums. Fashion has to be real. The designs by Hus- sein Chalayan which used to combine trends in fa- shion and science (clothes- -furniture, clothes-lamps, etc.) may be featured in the albums on the 21st-century fashion, but you certainly won’t find them hanging from store racks. There are co- untless examples. Let’s leave technological clothes for the far-away future. NH: Thank you very much. Wearable computers Fashion has to constantly surprise us. Trends must be modern and forward-looking; no wonder then that they allude to new technologies, which are mushrooming at the speed of light.
  • 50. Trendbook 201350 Kiedy firmy wiedzą o nas więcej niż my sami, czyli big data i prywatność W przypadku tzw. big data nie chodzi tylko o ogrom informacji, które gene- rujemy. Bardziej istotne są dwie inne kwestie. Pierwsza – że marketerzy mają do dyspozycji tzw. nieustrukturyzowane dane. Druga – że konsumenci mają świa- domość postępującej utraty prywatności. Big data privacy – when companies know more about us than we do ourselves In the case of the so-called big data, it is not just about the enormity of information that we generate. There are two other issues which are more important. First of all, marketers have the so-called unstructured data at their disposal. Second of all, consumers are becoming increasingly aware that they are gradually losing their privacy.
  • 51. Trendbook 201351 About the trend The fact that every day we generate a huge amount of in- formation has been known for a long time. Intel reveals that we send 639,800 GB of data on-line every minute. Cisco predicts that 2015 will bring the age of zettabyte (this term is used only in terms of the amount of information created by people in the world). For me, this number (1 zettabyte is 1 trilliard1 bytes) is just as difficult to comprehend as the vastness of the universe. Cisco provides us with an example. 1 zettabyte is 1,000 exabytes, and one (sic!) exabyte translates into 36,000 years of uninterrupted watching time of video films in HD quality. According to the February Nasuni report (The State of Cloud Storage 2013 Industry Report) the current amount of data in the cloud has just exceeded one exabyte. This trend is also hugely influenced by two earlier trends – Internet of Things and wearable computers - or, more pre- cisely, the possibility of installing chips in virtually anything and of connecting virtually anything to the Internet. Howe- ver, the most important thing related to the big data is not how much information we generate, but what it is about. Modern data analysis is much more difficult, because these are often unstructured data. So it's not only about analysing our age, gender, or average income. Today, on the basis of analysing our ‘likes’ alone (so it’s not only the information that we wrote about ourselves that is analysed, but what kind of books we read, what music we listen to, what kind of friends we have, etc.), the system is able to tell, with high degree of accuracy, our sexual orientation, political beliefs, IQ, or even if we are the children of divorced parents2. No wonder then that this trend is inextricably linked to the phenomenon of progressive loss of privacy. On the one hand, upon hearing about such solutions as RIOT3, consu- mers may be terrified and take some action to protect them- selves against potential surveillance (the so-called cloaking). The New York-based artist Adam Harvey (interviewed on page 55) runs a num- ber of projects designed to protect our privacy, inclu- ding CV Dazzle - a system of hairstyles and make-ups preventing face recognition (e.g. by social networks, CCTV cameras, systems in- stalled in the ads), Camo- flash – a patent-pending clutch bag which automatically triggers the flash when someone is trying to take a picture of us, and finally, the Stealth Wear clothing collection - made​​ from a special metallised fabric that blocks the emission of bodily heat, rendering us invisible to the surrounding drones. On the other hand, however, it appears that such advanced forms of tracking by commercial companies do not really bother the consumers provided that they get a tailor-made product or a lower price (see Figure 12). At this year's CES, the privacy issue was actually featured in all panels - from the consumer panel to the ones on we- arable computers and social TV. Key words facial recognition, social screening, online tracking, predictive personalization, predictive computing, cloaking 1. Trilliard = 1 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 2. For more information, see M. Kosinski et al., Private traits and attributes are predictable from digital records of human behavior, PNAS, Feb 12, 2013. 3. Rapid Information Overlay Technology System – developed by the firm Raytheon (one of the world’s biggest military and industrial corporations); on the basis of data mined from social networking sites and the information embedded in photographs, etc., it allows the user to create a profile of a particular person, or even to predict where this person’s going to be at particular times of the day. See more: How Raytheon Software Tracks You Online, The Guardian, 10 February 2013. Big data privacy
  • 52. Trendbook 201352 Accompanying trends Internet of Things, quantified self FOMO – fear-of-missing-out – the fear of being excluded; users perpetually inform their social networking friends that they have changed their job, where they spent their holidays, what they are doing right now, where they go shopping, and so on, and so forth. Moreover, they are constantly checking what's new with their friends. They are driven by the fear that the things others are doing are much more interesting. JOMO – joy-of-missing-out – the joy we feel because we’re missing out on something, where that something is clearly defined – it’s the conscious choice not to use technology and social media (at least temporarily); it’s also about selecting information and focusing on the off-line, not the on-line life. Reasons behind the trend The increased desire to make the information about our- selves public; the burgeoning penetration of smartphones and other connected mobile devices; the development of technologies which allow user recognition based on such parameters as face, location, interests, behaviours, product usage, etc.; technologies for tracking and analysing user behaviour on social networking sites; analysing data in real time. Examples of the trend The big data trend is obviously most often used by govern- ments and marketers. I have definitely more in common with the latter, so I will provide examples from this category only. I’ve already mentioned that new technologies make it po- ssible to identify the user based on his various features and to provide him with the product tailored to his interests. For example, Facedeals is the project that allows us to check in at specific locations using our face - the camera (e.g. CCTV) identifies who we are (for instance, by matching us to our social network picture and profile), where we are (e.g. in Starbucks), and then offers us a specific product. At the end of last year, hyperCrew and Brand24 teamed up to organise a campaign for Pizza DaGrasso. Brand24 followed Facebook statuses related to the fact that someone was hungry or was in the mood for pizza; then, a pizza was delivered to such Figure 12 Consumer attitudes toward the so-called predictive personalisation Source: JWT 10 Trends for 2013, December 14, 2012 Consumers have nothing against tracking as long as there’s something in it for them. Big data privacy
  • 53. Trendbook 201353 Diagram 3 Perspectives on the use of data – past and present. Source: World Economic Forum and The Boston Consulting Group, in: Unlocking the Value of Personal Data: From Collection to Usage, World Economic Forum, The Boston Consulting Group, February 2013 a person in the off-line world. The service Lenddo analyses who our friends are and how we behave on Facebook. On this basis, they decide whether to grant us a loan or not (the phenomenon called online reputation). For the time being, banks are the only institutions that openly admit that their large-scale use of unstructured data is becoming increasingly common (e.g. people who listen to hip-hop have a lower credit rating). Supermarket chains are also very happy to use big data. I’m not going to dwell on the over-discussed case of Target, which, ​​by analysing the purchases made by female clients, is able to tell whether a woman is pregnant (as early as in the second trimester). A very interesting solution is the app called AvoidTheShoppingCrowds, which analyses data from social networking sites (check-ins, photos with geolocation, tweets, etc.) and from the CCTV footage, showing the real time crowd volume in a given store (for now, the app is used by four Norwegian chains: Centrum, 9 Straatjes, Zuid, and ArenA). Dunkin'Donuts presents its current menu on touchscreens - the availability of all products is updated on a regular basis. Staples.com differentiates the prices of its products in its online store depending on the user’s current location. The closer the user is to their competition’s sto- res - Office Max or Office Depot – in the off-line world, the lower the prices of the products offered by Staples. Location The main objective of using our data should be usability. The photo shows the Norwegian app Avoid the Shopping Crowds, which uses the content on social networking sites and the CCTV footage to evaluate the real time crowd volume in a given shopping centre. Data actively collected with user awareness. Traditional approach New perspective Definition of personal data is predetermined and binary Data collected for specified use User is the data subject Individual provides legal consent but is not truly engaged Policy framework focuses on minimazing risks to the individual Most data from machine to machine transaction and passive collection - difficult to notify individuals Definition of personal data is contextual and dependent on social norms Economic value and innovation come from combining data sets and subsequent uses User can be the data subject, the data controller, and/or data processor Individuals engage and understand how data is used and how value is created Policy fousses on balancing protection with innovation and economic growth Big data privacy
  • 54. Trendbook 201354 The New York-based artist – Adam Harvey – is working on the projects which thwart consumer surveillance. In January 2013, he launched the clothing line referred to as anti-drone garments. is actually one of the most important factors now (the so- -called shift from social to spatial). Using big data doesn’t always have to be commercial. Based on the analysis of tweets (including photos, geolocation, and videos), the Norwegian Twitcident solution enables rescue teams to react to emergencies quickly and effectively. There are also examples of using the counter-trend related to the protection of privacy. In March this year, in order to provide its customers with the protection against possible surveillance, the Seattle-based restaurant 5PointCafe ban- ned people from entering with Google Glass (as we can guess, it was rather intended to generate a buzz considering the fact that Google Glass is not yet widely available). Applying the trend in marketing solutions Big data is one of those 2013 trends that spark the most con- troversy precisely due to the privacy-related issues. Howe- ver, it is worth quoting the words of Ira Helf, Chief Analytics Officer at JWT North America. In one of the interviews, he said: We’re not trying to invade your privacy. We’re trying to give you something that’s more relevant to what you’re doing. Aside from the fact that, despite the enormity of data, large amounts still remain unused (e.g. due to lack of kno- wledge, skills, resources, etc.), what big data really allow for is the so-called predictive computing, and, as a result, predictive personalization. The idea is that marketers are able to meet the consumer’s expectations before they are even voiced. There's no denying that such solutions are a win-win situation - the consumer is far more eager to buy something that is tailored to his needs (which means more money for the marketer), and at the same time he doesn’t have to find his way through a maze of annoying and irre- levant messages. We can say, therefore, that as marketers we’ve come full circle today. Modern technology gives us back what industrialisation took from us last century. The relationship between the seller and the buyer is becoming very personal again. One of the few campaigns using big data in Poland. DaGrasso delivered free pizza to those who wrote on their Facebook wall that they were hungry. Big data privacy
  • 55. Trendbook 201355 Trapped in a world of precisely engineered experiences Adam Harvey, the New York-based artist, talks about the world of total surveillance and how to protect ourselves against it. Natalia Hatalska: Are your privacy projects (CV dazzle, Ca- moflash, Stealth Wear) just an expression of art or do you think they will actually be widely used some day? Adam Harvey: I hope that my work with countersurveil- lance will serve as a reference point and as inspiration for navigating our complex future of total surveillance, where we are all spies. How will we behave in this environment? My projects are highly conceptual, but I also imagine them as being practical enough to use in certain situations. The example I often give when discussing these wearable coun- tersurveillance technologies is that all clothes are designed for certain occasions, and some clothes are only worn once a year. If you decide to style yourself with CV Dazzle or Stea- lth Wear for just one night a year, then it's not that different than wearing a gown or a tuxedo. Big data privacy
  • 56. Trendbook 201356 NH: Your motto is in privacy we trust – but don't you think that marketers use our data because we ourselves publish this information online. So it's more ours problem that we do not protect our privacy. Adam: Advertisers and marketers must be competitive and having access to more insight through customer data gi- ves them this edge. The problem with posting private data online is not that advertisers reuse it in manipulative ways, that's expected. The problem is that the people who are posting their data and expressing themselves online can't see who is in the room listening to them when they speak. It turns out that there are a lot of people in this room and once you post your data and thoughts, it often becomes freely accessible and permanently stored. This is a horrible way for us to express ourselves and communicate with each other. I think you're right that this is a problem which people need to be more aware of. Then we can act accordingly. NH: How do you work on your projects? What's your inspi- ration and what's your goal? Adam: The goal of my countersurveillance work is to pro- mote privacy through art. I think there is a lot of discussion that needs to happen in this area and by making privacy visible through projects like CV Dazzle and Stealth Wear I hope more people enter the discussion. I think that's the only way we can figure out how to adapt to living in total surveillance, by involving as many people as possible and seeing how everyone rea- cts to the current state, or lack, of privacy. If everyone is worried about this, and I think they are, then we have a  big problem, and we do. Surveillance is out of control and needs to be put in check. I hope that my work helps restructure the imbalance of power between those who surveil and those who are subjected to it. NH: In your opinion, where are we heading concerning privacy issues? I think we've already passed the stage of Minority Report movie. Adam: I think we're now heading towards a scenario like Mi- chael Douglas' experiences in the movie The Game, where he becomes trapped in a world of precisely engineered experiences. Right now this is taking shape online when topics from email discussion and search queries infect your advertisements and suggest videos for you to watch. Your online experience becomes curated by yourself but it also traps you. Soon this will spill over into the physical world. If we don't stand up for privacy rights now and fight for what's been lost during the last decade, then we only have a bigger battle to fight next year. NH: Thank you. The problem is that the people who are posting their data and expressing themselves online can't see who is in the room listening to them when they speak. Big data privacy
  • 57. Trendbook 201357 Users want to have a choice. Just ask them! Katarzyna Szymielewicz lawyer; co-founder and CEO of Panoptykon Foundation, which deals with the human rights protection in surveillance society For something that's supposed to be in decline, it triggers quite a lot of controversy. The debate on whether we still have the right to privacy in the digital world, and if so - how it should be guaranteed - has not died down, but is entering a decisive phase instead. The fact that we have increasingly less online privacy is more than obvious. However, neither the lawmakers nor the users are sure whether this trend should continue any more. Bruce Schneier, a guru in the field of cryptography and on-line security, has recently, written that the Internet is Big data privacy
  • 58. Trendbook 201358 a surveillance state. Traceability of our behaviour, combi- ning data from the offline and online, worlds, generating detailed predictive profiles, meticulous processing of our digital dandruff into significant and valuable data – all this is already unprecedented and still growing. There is no turning back from technological progress. What's more, the deposits of private information are also accessed by governments, including authoritarian regimes. And they certainly do not intend to give up their privileges. What do the users themselves think about it? They vote with their feet and choose the communication services offered by major providers; they migrate to the servers of a few leading firms, enabling them to control the vast ma- jority of on-line traffic. People go to places where they can fully participate in social life - this is our nature. This does not mean that we are comfortable while under coercion of the pay us with your privacy, or go somewhere else kind. The studies conducted for over several years now show that people want to control the second life of their data and feel uncomfortable when left with no choice. According to the Eurobarometer, as much as 72% of Internet users fear that they reveal too much personal information and feel that they can’t fully control this data. Another study, conducted by Ovum in the U.S., showed that 68% of Internet users wo- uld choose the do-not-track option to limit the use of their personal data if such a tool was readily available. However, only 14% of respondents believe that on-line companies are fair to them when it comes to the processing of their personal data. It is not surprising since the vast majority of ISPs now use the standards aimed at swindling users out of the maximum amount of information, not necessarily in an explicit way. Being up-to-date with the constantly changing settings and privacy policies is a challenge even for a lawyer who specia- lises in this field. The so-called average user usually gives up after the first try. This problem has been noticed by the European Commission, and more specifically, the Commis- sioner Viviane Reding, who last year submitted a proposal to modernise the regulations on the protection of per- sonal data. The regulation is to be applicable throug- hout the European Union, and also to cover all those who offer their services to the Europeans or monitor their online activity, inclu- ding the U.S. companies. Reding argues that this step is not only caused by the need to adapt the law to the rapidly changing Inter- net service market and to a greater privacy protection. The European Commission is convinced that, due to uniform regulations, companies will gain fair competition, certainty as to the law, and - most importantly - bigger trust of their users, who will finally feel safe in this market. The fact that the Commission may be right this time is con- firmed by the moves of some of the companies that choose to escape forward and make their business approach pri- vacy-friendly. ​​Such move was made by Microsoft, which has changed the default settings in Internet Explorer (version 10) to “Do Not Track.” Moreover, the “do not track” appro- ach is not alien to Mozilla, which has been offering Firefox add-ons to enhance privacy protection (Cookie Controller, BetterPrivacy, RequestPolicy, etc.) or to make users aware of the scale of tracking (excellent Collussion). Maybe that will make marketers understand that, in this way, they have a chance to win a growing number of custo- mers who are fed up with playing the privacy settings game and are searching for services based on the respect for their information autonomy. In a nutshell, they want to have an actual choice and are ready to pay for this luxury). People go to places where they can fully participate in social life - this is our nature. This does not mean that we are comfortable while under coercion of the pay us with your privacy, or go somewhere else kind. Big data privacy
  • 59. Trendbook 201359 Humanisation of machines – when machines think for us Today’s technology is a lot different than it used to be. Devices are gaining a new, human dimension – they are intuitive, intelligent, and finally – no longer silent. These are exactly the features we would like to see in them. Intel reveals that 25% of users would like to be able to talk with a vending machine.
  • 60. Trendbook 201360 About the trend Already in the early 1990s, Mark Weiser predicted that the era of personal computers will be followed by the era of the so-called calm technology - one that blends into the background of our lives, becomes unnoticeable, doesn’t require our attention or increased awareness to use it. What we are seeing today is almost an exponential growth (in all areas and aspects of our lives) in the number of truly smart devices, which absolve us of the responsibility to think. From the (marketing) perspective of this report, the humanisa- tion of machines seems to be of particular interest espe- cially in the area of trade. It is clearly visible that, as a result of technological progress (including software for remote device management, intelligent character recognition, or contactless payments) and consumer expectations, trade is undergoing a transformation. According to the Smart Vending Survey, commissioned by Intel and conducted in October 2012 in eleven countries (including Poland) by Redshift Research, one quarter (25%) of the respondents would like to operate a vending ma- chine using speech, while 17% would like to have a two- -way dialogue with the machine. In addition to interactivity, consumers expect vending machines to have more social features. Almost two thirds of the respondents would like to get discounts for loyalty (62%), 38% would like to see the reviews and recommendations of other users, and 30% would like to set personal preferences in the machines they use regularly. Finally, consumers expect that future machi- nes will offer not only products but services too. More than half (55%) would be happy with the possibility of charging their phones. Another desirable feature would be free Wi-Fi (54%), and the ability to print from memory cards (50%). Furthermore, more than one third (38%) would like to pay wirelessly with their smartphones. What we can expect in the nearest future is that vending machines will definitely mushroom. Not only will they dispense just about anything (including pizza, seafood, un- derwear, or even personalised welcome banners for our loved ones who’ve just come home from their holidays), but they will also engage the consumer in a physical contact (today, there are vending machines which you have to hug or smile at to get the product). Accompanying trends: Internet of Things, the nanosecond culture, Lazy Generation Reasons behind the trend First of all, as human beings, it is only natural that we tend to humanise inanimate objects, i.e. to ascribe emotions, personality, and character to different machines ad devi- ces, particularly to those which we use every day. Hence, it is no wonder that we treat personal computers, vending machines, and other devices important to us as if they were living creatures. Second of all, technological progress, excessive amounts of information and data, and living in the so-called nanosecond culture (i.e. in a per- petual rush, always running out of time) all mean that what we expect from new technologies is functiona- lity and time-saving features. As a result, provided that it’s possible, we give up independent thinking/decision-making/ contemplating/analysing and outsource these time-consu- ming mental activities to devices. Ray Kurzweil predicts that in terms of reasoning powers, machines will have equalled humans by 2029. Key words vending 3.0, digital retail, ubicomputing, the age of calm technology Humanisation of machines
  • 61. Trendbook 201361 Examples of the trend Devices which do ‘the thinking’ for us are applied in virtually every industry. For example, the pharmaceutical company Sanofi Aventis has recently introduced to the U.S. market a special drug packaging for people at risk of anaphylaxis. It has a built-in panic button. Whenever it’s necessary to take the drug, pressing the panic button makes the pa- ckaging tell us exactly how the drug should be applied. As part of the pilot programme in 2012 in Chorzów, the Välkky smart device was installed near pedestrian crossings in order to improve pedestrian safety. The way it works is simple. When a pedestrian is approaching the crossing, a sensor detects his presence and automatically activates the LEDs embedded in the device located on both sides of the street. The LEDs begin to flash with intense white and blue light. These lights are seen by drivers from a distance of 50 m (in poor visibility) to over 200 m. This way, drivers can notice the pedestrians which are in the crossing zone early enough. The research shows that Välkky reduces the driving speed by an average of 4-5%, which in turn could decrease the number of pedestrian crossing accidents up to 20%. What is more, at this year's CES I had the chance to admire hapiFORK, an electronic fork that analyses how we eat and vibrates in our hand whenever we’re eating too fast (this is to prevent the problems associated with weight gain and poor digestion). Another wonder device is SimSensei, which, using the Kinect technology and analysing our facial expression, is able to say with 90% accuracy whether we are suffering from depression. However, as regards the category of smart vending machi- nes, the list is almost endless. In June last year, Lay's intro- duced a special machine in Argentina with potatoes as the currency. After inserting a potato into the machine, the user could watch a video showing the entire process from raw Today’s vending machines are not only smart, but they offer virtually anything, from pizza to chilled underwear. In the photo: Bikefixtation - a machine with bike parts. Source: german.fansshare.com Humanisation of machines
  • 62. Trendbook 201362 potato to a Lay’s chip. Just before the end of the video, the machine warmed a bag of chips that it popped into the consumer’s hands so that he was under the impression that the whole process took place inside the machine. Within 3 months, more than 80,000 people interacted with the Lay’s vending machine. The brand Fantastic De- lites installed a machine in Australia that gives away free snacks if someone presses the red button 100, 500, 1000, and x times. Another way to get a snack is by standing on one leg in front of the machine, by dan- cing, or kneeling and paying it a tribute. The Polish Humanitarian Action (PAH) is currently running a fundraiser event for the purposes related to its activities, using the so-called Can Machine. A person throws an empty soda can into the machine, and then chooses one area of PAH’s activity that the money from recycling his can should go to (there are 3 areas to choose from). In ad- dition, everyone can increase the value of their donation by watching an ad about the action’s sponsor. In September 2012, Coca- -Cola unveiled its latest vending machine that offers NFC technology for contactless payments, an interactive touchscreen, a QR codes scanner for customers with coupons, and an option of photographing yourself with a bottle of Coca-Cola and publishing the photo on the selected social platform. It should be noted that smart vending ma- chines are an inherent element of the very vigorous, parallel trend known as digital retail - as part of it, shops are increasingly featuring interactive shop windows, virtual fitting rooms, touchscreens, user-recogni- tion technologies, etc. It is even predicted that traditional cash registers will be su- pplanted by tablets (it has already happe- ned in the New York-based chain Barneys, and Wal-Mart is testing the ScanGo app which allows you to scan products while shopping). As a result, the digital signage category is shifting into intelligent signage. In Poland, the solutions in this category are An example of Polish solutions. The cha- rity vending machine – the user throws an empty can into the machine, and then chooses one area of PAH’s activity that the money from recycling his can should go to (there are 3 areas to choose from). Agency: SaatchiSaatchi Modern devices are really smart, i.e. they think for us. The photo shows a fork which starts to vibrate when we’re eating too fast. Humanisation of machines
  • 63. Trendbook 201363 Each device has/may have a built-in electronic brain - a microprocessor, invisible to us. It is thanks to these miniature brains that the world we live in today is really smart. Source: Intel being tested by the Żabka chain of grocery shops (using Intel technology). Applying the trend in marketing solutions First of all, providing the user with solutions that make his life easier and save his time. It is possible mainly owing to the fact that a smart device is learning our behaviour while we’re using it (e.g. a bracelet developed by Frog - which is also our tube card - is synchronised with the timetable. Not only does it know if our train is late, but it offers us information on the next arriving trains and an estimated time of changing trains if we choose our most frequented lines.) The usability of such solutions doesn’t only concern the products themselves, but also marketing activities. The restaurant Red Tomato Pizza in Dubai offers its customers a fridge magnet in the shape of a pizza box - pressing it automatically sends our pizza order to the restaurant. Ad- ditionally, thanks to geolocation, the content of the order is allocated to a specific address. Second of all, having and using the product in any place convenient for the user – it’s especially visible in the case of vending machines. Not only do they offer a variety of products and services (as opposed to the past, when it was only drinks and snacks), but there’s also a growing tendency to put them in a multitude of places – for instance, the mini vending machines (called taxi treats) have been installed in New York’s cabs. Humanisation of machines
  • 64. Trendbook 201364 Humanisation of machines
  • 65. Trendbook 201365 A construction furnished with an electronic brain - the new face of vending machines Arkadiusz Hruszowiec Business Development Manager at Intel For a long time now, we’ve been watching the burgeoning market trend of combining the functionality of traditio- nal vending machines with interactive kiosks. Today, this new category of devices is equipped with a range of other technologies which allow operators to offer a wide array of services to both consumers and companies whose products these devices dispense. This state-of-the-art group of vending machines equipped with digital signage (interactive screen) is able to suc- cessfully draw customers and then engage them in intera- ction via touch, gestures, or voice (the so-called perceptual computing). This form of human-machine interaction is becoming increasingly convenient, easy, and, above all, more engaging to the user, which translates into higher sales figures. A contemporary smart vending machine is able to understand the context in which it is located (location, Humanisation of machines
  • 66. Trendbook 201366 the demographics of a person standing in front of it, we- ather, etc.), thanks to which it is able to adapt the form of interaction and the way of communicating the content to a specific customer and to his needs in real time. Engaging a vending machine user is one thing. Another plus relates to the rewards that the operators of such machines are reaping of applying such cutting-edge technologies. New solutions allow them to gather demographic data about customers (gender, age, buying habits, or for how long and where they focus their eyes when they’re looking at the screen), manage this data effectively, and ensure safety. In the world where the number of computer viruses and hackings into computer networks is on the rise, the issue of on-line safety is especially important, both in terms of payment and the content displayed on the screen. In fact, we’re dealing with computing devices with high computing powers, which is necessary to simultaneously handle the visually appealing content displayed to the user, to record the demographic user analysis in real-time, and to support security functions and monitor their effectiveness – which is a crucial factor for the operators of intelligent machines. One perfect example of the new-generation vending machi- nes is the coffee machine developed by Costa (owner of the coffeeheaven chain in Po- land) in cooperation with Intel. It stimulates five hu- man senses. Its huge intera- ctive touchscreen displays compelling content that can attract the consumer, and then, using its intuitive interface, the machine pre- pares his favourite coffee in a convenient and harmonious way. The very process of choosing your coffee is a pleasant form of entertainment itself. While “brewing” your coffee, the machine is playing café noises in the background and giving off a fragrant smell of coffee blends composed and prepared by major perfume companies. The device itself is enclosed in an aesthetic case designed by the creators of Ferrari. This example perfectly illustrates the path the industry is following. From a gizmo hidden in a dark corner of a shopping centre, to an eye- -catching machine that interacts with the customer, using its electronic brain and the advanced algorithms of artificial intelligence to that end. New form of human- machine interaction is becoming increasingly convenient, easy, and, above all, more engaging to the user, which translates into higher sales figures. Humanisation of machines
  • 67. Trendbook 201367 Hybrid world – the world with no borders In 2011, so not that long ago, I said that there are two worlds, on-line and off-line, between which the user is constantly switching over. Today, these two worlds are gone. They’ve merged into one – the hybrid world.
  • 68. Trendbook 201368 Hybrid world The trend The world we’re living in now is different from the one we had last year. It has been labelled as the hybrid world, be- cause it's actually hard to discern where the border between the on-line and off-line worlds exactly lies. In the hybrid world, our location does not matter - we can control the on- -line world, being off-line (e.g. Google's Ingress, game, which is played on a smartphone, but to accumulate the energy required to accomplish a mission, you need to go to the city – the missions take place around historic monuments, memorials, and other public places). And vice versa – we can control the off-line via the on-line (it underlies the entire trend of the Internet of Things - using our smartphone, we can remotely control all our home devices, turn on/off the light, vacuum, set the washing machine, etc.). In the long term, this leads to a situation where the space around us is a kind of interface, and we ourselves become... sensors (see Copenhagen Wheel – where a special sensor attached to a bicycle we ride every day collects information on air pollution, traffic congestion, etc., and sends it to the widely available database). Reasons behind the trend Dissemination of new technologies among users, including RFID, NFC, GPS, augmented reality, or visual search. People’s dependence on new technologies, information, and Internet access. The increasing smartphone penetration and mobile Internet usage. An overwhelming need to control the world around us. Accompanying trends: Internet of Things, wearable computers Examples of the trend In addition to the above Google’s game Ingress and Co- penhagen Wheel, lately we could see a lot of references to the hybrid world in marketing moves. Last year's Cannes Lions Festival awarded the Ariel Fashion Shoot campaign – through their computers, users could control a robot placed at Stockholm Central station. The idea was to use the robot to shoot and stain moving white clothes in order to win them. Stained clothes were then washed in Ariel powder and sent to the person who had managed to hit them. Other brands, including Allianz (Allianz Live Frog – the task was to help a virtual frog cross the real street – see the video) and Mitsubishi (the opportunity of a test drive in a real car and real space, the only difference being that the car was controlled via the Internet, by a person sitting at home in front of a computer screen), also engage in si- milar campaigns. One of the most interesting actions was the campaign by BMW in New York in January this year. The brand decided to display electric BMW cars in a shop window, called BMW iWindow. Each car was modelled on a car passing by. The conversion took place in real time thanks to a motion de- tector and digital projection. Moreover, the hybrid world trend includes the increasingly popular phenomenon of spotted (an anonymous announ- cement posted on Facebook by someone who saw a girl/ boy they liked on a bus, for example, but couldn’t muster up enough courage to approach them in the real world). Applying the trend in marketing solutions From the above examples, we could gather that the hybrid Key words phygital, on-off
  • 69. Trendbook 201369 world in marketing merely serves to provide consumers with new and exciting experiences. Naturally, fun is important, but these solutions in fact offer many practical applications, including: • payments – Kellogg's has launched the so-called Tweet Shop – it exists off-line, but you pay with on-line currency in the form of tweets. This February, American Express tea- med up with Twitter to launch the system called pay by tweet - if an AmEx user syncs his credit card with Twitter, he can pay for his shopping by tweeting purchase hash- tags; • making purchase decisions easier – The CA brand posted its collection of clothes on its Facebook profile; of course users could like them. Then, the brand put the number of likes for each item on hangers in a brick-and-mortar shop so that the customers entering the shop knew how many people liked a particular garment; • building a community – Like It Box which is sold on the Polish market, uses RFID technology to enable users to like a Facebook page of a brand during an event in the off-line world. The hybrid world also includes the phenomenon of the so-called multitude of screens – due to the presence of connected home appliances, everyday we’re dealing not with 3 or 5, but at least a dozen or so screens. On each of these screens, a coherent commercial can be displayed – we can see a juice ad on the fridge screen, on the washing machine screen (we find out that it leaves no stains), on our phone (it’s adjusted to our current location), and on the TV screen (smartTV can learn our behaviour and thus suggest content and recommend products we might be interested in). Something similar is already offered by such brands as Samsung, though it’s seen only in highly advanced markets at the moment. Copenhagen Wheel is a device that transforms an urban bike into a real broadcasting station. In real time, it sends information on the city’s current air pollution level or traffic jams.Designed by MIT Senseable City Lab Photo credit: Max Tomasinelli Hybrid world
  • 70. Trendbook 201370 Do hybrid systems have a marketing potential? Witold Kempa CEO at Netizens digital innovation house When my deliberations on the hybrid world were still at a nascent stage, it occurred to me: why not share my im- pressions from the CeBIT 2013 right away? Provided we all agree that CeBIT is one of Europe’s leading trade fairs on technology and innovation, the hunters and connoisseurs of everything that “bricks and clicks” must have been over the moon with this year's edition as it was a real feast in- deed. The expo showcased countless applications of de- vices and systems that exchanged their information with online databases in real time. What particularly drew my attention was a prototype solution developed by one of German universities (it obtained financial aid from Adidas). The idea was based on using six kinect-type installations arranged in three columns. A user who was standing before the device was scanned and his picture was converted into a 3D avatar. In a flash, the system scanned and generated an avatar which then appeared in a skilfully-designed virtual fitting-room equipped with the wall-display system. A spe- cial algorithm left the avatar undressed... OK, not to worry, I didn’t mean stark naked. This allowed the user to swiftly Hybrid world
  • 71. Trendbook 201371 try on “himself” entire collections of clothes available in the on-line database. Trying on so many clothes in a more traditional way would probably take a few hours in a fitting room at the least. Why did I choose this particular example? It's easy. Like no other solution, it answers the question of where this trend came from and what’s its latent potential is. The main thing underlying the development of hybrid world is the available technology. Gesture-controlled installations or the systems of image tracking and analysis have put a very dangerous weapon in the hands of retailers and marketers – a weapon they once could only dream of. An avatar once put on an SD card can be used both in on-line and off-line shops with vir- tual fitting rooms. You’re asking what for? Well, to be able to pick three items out of fifty we’ve tried on and have enough time to talk our choices through with a shopping assistant. I’ll venture even further – now that we’ve got virtual fitting rooms, maybe it’s also a good place for target advertising? The ad content might be, in this case, adjusted to the time when a customer visited a shop, to avatar features (age, sex), etc. It’s a win-win – one place embraces benefits for both e-commerce and advertising. The marketing trend called operations in a hybrid world wouldn’t have emerged if it weren’t for the ubiquitous mi- niaturisation and universal Internet access. I don’t think I’ll surprise anyone mentioning at this point a regular mobile phone turning into a smartphone. A TV with a camera and access to on-line apps is already a cliché too. But...a light bulb? With Wi-Fi? Smartphone-controlled? Have you heard of it? Anybody who has ever forgotten to turn off the lights in the house and who knows that doing it remotely using a smartphone would be ‘kind of awesome,’ knows what I’m talking about. Do hybrid systems have marketing potential? You bet they do! Let’s take the above light bulbs with Wi-Fi. Equipped with the right kind of software, such light bulbs could be controlled even by a Facebook app – the video streaming will show the desired effect. To me, it’s a marketing gold mine – acting locally in the off-line world, you could get a huge range in the virtual world. As of now, such instal- lations are no longer a pipe-dream. We had a chance to check it for ourselves during the netizen Christmas event “Wielka walka na śnieżki” (The Big Snowball Fight). Anyone with the Internet connection, from any corner of the globe, could control a little snowball cannon placed in our office and fire Styrofoam snow(styro)balls. The question arises – which advertising agency will provide us with such hybrid solutions and such an innovative line of thought? The answer seems difficult, but everything starts with the collaboration between creative directors and en- gineers. That’s why – oyez! you, marketers! – look for the agencies with ResearchDevelopment departments, whose job is adopting new technologies and implementing them into the world of marketing communications. The good news is that Poland is not so far behind. The presen- tation of TouchTake at CeBIT in Hannover deve- loped in the firm I’m wor- king for immediately met with the interest of many people, including a Chinese photographer. The hybrid world is also the real world having a vivid dialogue with virtual reality. Here’s another university-based project – simple glasses with Augmented Reality which track the man’s work (the implementation of a training sequence with the production machine) and informs about the correct sequence of actions. A solution straight from Minority Report? It’s al- ready our reality. Thanks to technology and RD departments, the above solutions are already viable and being implemented in the real world. Image, content, and message are becoming fully bi-directional and interactive. They are being developed here and now, influenced by a consumer and his decisions. Technology has given customers powerful tools for auto presentation, and furnished marketers with possibilities of analysing data and influencing the message where only sky is the limit. The dynamic development of creative en- gineering will bring us interactive media of two-way mar- keting communications which will automatically respond to an identified user. It will be constantly collecting and creating analytic data, which will be immediately used by marketing departments to adjust their message and content to the user. In the near future, marketing budgets will have to be optimised and that will happen for the first time in the history of advertising. Look for the agencies with ResearchDevelopment departments, whose job is adopting new technologies and implementing them into the world of marketing communications. Hybrid world
  • 72. Trendbook 201372 Phygital – how to mix bricks with clicks? Wojciech Drewczyński Project Manager at Agency Jamel Interactive, author of the blog about hi-tech innovations wicu.pl Every day, brands are looking for unique solutions designed to attract new customers to use their products and services. Nowadays, one of the most effective weapons in the fight for a customer is combining the digital with the physical. After all, there is nothing better for building user engage- ment than using new technologies, the effects of which are visible in the real world. Having made a decision to enter the phygital, first we have to analyse the goal we want to achieve and what value a potential consumer will find in it. This will have a huge impact on our strategy choice. Whether we’re going to build a single device that processes all the signals sent by users or to equip a larger number of our customers with such devices will influence the budget for our project. Another important step on our way is considering the qu- estion of where the user will perform an action that will trigger a reaction in the second world. Choosing online or offline to be the place where the interaction starts will force us to choose the direction for the communication between a man, technology, and the real world. It will always be possible to achieve the goal in two ways. Hybrid world
  • 73. Trendbook 201373 Once we know what we want, and what will be the flow of information will be, we can select the type of detector that will start the entire process. It will determine the input data that our system receives. At the moment, the most popular detectors include: • Camera –perfect for reading images and two-dimensional codes, or for using face and object recognition technology. The latter solution has been successfully used in the service Facedeals, which identifies users entering a particular place and gives them discount coupons. The camera can also be used to present the output data such as photos, videos, or augmented reality. The Polish game ShootAR perfectly illustrates how the potential of this device can be used; • Near field communication (NFC) – a form of radio com- munication commonly used in the latest generation of smartphones. It enables data exchange between devices at a distance up to 20 cm. With these solutions, it is possible to open doors without using keys or perform contactless transactions using a phone; • RFID – just like NFC, it enables distance, non-contact com- munication, but here it’s possible even up to a few me- ters. This technology was used in the KarmaTech shoes, for instance. In locations where the antenna was put, the shoes made it possible to post tweets or engage in social networking with other users. In Poland, RFID is used by Like it box, which provides special bands to promote a variety of events; • GPS – it allows to detect the user's or object’s location. Examples of using GPS sensors can be observed in mobile games such as Ingress or Place Challenge. Geolocation will also help you to conduct your business in a more efficient way, which is perfectly illustrated by Google Maps Coordi- nate; • Internet application – it is used to check whether the user has engage in used a particular function that you have programmed. It can be integrated with different kinds of API. Like-o-matic, the feeder developed in Jamel Intera- ctive used the Like button to scatter the next handful of bird food. CA put the number of Facebook “likes” on shop hangers to present the information on how popular particular clothes are; • Microphone – t can be used not only to record sound, but also to determine to which sounds the sensor should react. Zazum uses this solution to detect audio codes embedded in video broadcasts and to make purchases of products visible on the screen; • Motion detector – detects the user’s physical activity wit- hout using a camera; • Touch – a great way to control physical sensors and touch- screens. One of the most interesting ways of using touch to promote products was implemented by Coca Cola. The company has created a vending machine which gave a free can of soda to anyone who hugged it; • Devices that use the user’s natural interface – he com- bination of a camera, microphone, motion detector and distance detector - most widely used in Kinect devices. Virtually any device from which we are able to capture a sig- nal can make a good sensor. Asthmapolis uses for this pur- pose an inhaler equipped with Bluetooth, Adidas miCoach uses a sensor located on a training outfit, Elektrobiblioteka employs a paper book connected to a computer via USB, while Mojio has a device that can be plugged into the OBD port located in our car. Most solutions use a combination of two or more sensors. After receiving the signal sent by the user, a sensor interprets it and sends the data to the application that, in turn, will trigger a reaction. In the case when the achievement of that result is mediated by an electronic device, e.g. an engine, an LCD display, a motion detector, etc., it’s worth using such hardware as Arduino, which is designed to support mic- rocontrollers. This solution is relatively cost-effective and enables us to create a code in several different programming languages​​. In this way, our application will be able to control various devices. Rewarding the user for completing his task is the last stage of our work. The form of the reward depends only on us. Creativity of certain companies when it comes to “phygital” is truly astonishing. A LED bulb glowing in the rhythm of the music that’s playing on your phone? Why not. This is how LIFX works. A bottle with which you can send a message to your fellow merrymakers? Sounds great. All the fans of Medea Spirits know it. A dice that will show the number of pips on a tablet? These things happen in Dice +. Examples might be multiplied indefinitely. With a good idea, you can prepare a great brick and click solution for virtually every industry and every product. Technology is only a means to an end. The bottom line is to create a real value for the consumer that will make him act. As for the rest – he has to see for himself. Hybrid world
  • 74. Trendbook 201374 Quo vadis, homo digitalus?
  • 75. Trendbook 201375 Quo vadis, homo digitalus? Tadeusz Żórawski CEO at Universal McCann Many thanks to Dorota Reykowska for the inspiration and invaluable comments. Each year in Poland is hailed the year of the mobile, and, traditionally at the end of each year, the title is called off only to state that the year of the mobile still hasn’t come. But despite all this, more than half of Poles have access to the Internet; a lot of them are buying smartphones, computers, digital TVs, and PlayStation. The digital world has gathered wide popular usership. What has become of us – people – as a result of all this? Well, what is happening with the human race is both good and bad. Below are several points in which I’ll try to synthesise these phenomena. Quo vadis, homo digitalus?
  • 76. Trendbook 201376 ADHD and ADD are taking their toll. According to the World Health Organization, more than 35 million people suffered from ADHD in 2011 alone. Doctors are also increasingly starting to diagnose ADD – Attention Deficit Disorder, which derives from the inability to focus attention. At business conferences, I often witness the following scene: while a conference host is starting with the greetings and the agenda, people are...looking for wi-fi. Such ubiquitous multitasking often stems from the fact that we don’t want - or maybe we are no longer able to? - concentrate on one single activity. During presentations, most people cannot focus for longer than 3.5 minutes. Does it really stem from our short attention span, or maybe we are just becoming bored with the activities which we have done so far without interrupting them with multi-tasking? Actually, it’s both. Ho- wever, it is true that our attention escapes to areas which we find more engaging than what we’re doing at the moment. Human brain contains the organ called – nucleus accumbens. Its significance was emphasised by Martin Lindstrom in his work Buyology, and earlier by American scientists publishing in such magazines as Scientific American Mind. Nucleus ac- cumbens is our pleasure centre. In simple terms, it is con- nected to three spheres – emotional, rational, and motor. It guides us through our actions so as we can derive as much pleasure as possible from what we’re doing – here and now. Naturally, if we visualise, here and now, the future benefits of something that we’re temporarily engaged in and that is not pleasant for us, but we know we will benefit from it in the long run, we decide to do it, but only with the vision of reaping the rewards in the future. If, for instance, we go to a university, what drives us is the things we can achieve thanks to our prospective university degree. If we study at the management-related faculty, we show up to classes every day and visualise ourselves sitting in the CEO’s chair, earning a decent salary, doing a rewarding job, and having an interesting, high-society circle of friends. Our nucleus accumbens keeps us from skipping classes or dropping out of college. We even start to feel better, coming to lectures every day, interacting with a group of university peers, and already feeling that we are one of the chosen few. Hence, the nucleus does not object. If, however, one lecture turns out to be particularly challenging and optional, which me- ans it doesn’t end with an exam, the pleasure centre of most students will lead them to a uni canteen or some other place where they can have a much better time. Those who decide to stay and listen to the lecture must genuinely want to stay, often due to individual reasons. Maybe someone finds this knowledge useful or is truly interested in the subject. In marketing communications too, understanding the sig- nificance of nucleus prevents people from wasting money. For example, if you are the producer of medical prepara- tions which help people quit smoking, you should know that, in most cases, using persuasive, rational slogans of the “Smoking kills” type will not necessarily guarantee any success. You should also know why that is. Such slogans are placed on all cigarette packs, which are successfully sold by the tobacco industry. When do people have a real chance of kicking the habit? If they find a replacement ple- asure stronger than smo- king a cigarette – here and now. Only then will they quit smoking. What is also important is the fact that nucleus is connected to the emotional, motor, and rational sphere. This is exactly the order in which they should be taken into consideration. First, smokers must find a replacement for an emotional pleasure. Moreover, many of them are aware that they have to keep their hands busy when they cannot reach for a ciggie anymore. Some time ago, there was a fad for special gadgets which did the trick. Only when the nucleus is satisfied motor-wise is it possible for rational arguments to have their say – we start to think that smoking is truly harmful. This way and with emotional pride, a reformed smoker talks about how giving up smoking has improved his health, sense of smell and taste, his bodily fitness, and so on, and so forth. If his nucleus hadn’t been activated, he would still be a smoker, despite his awareness that it’s bad for him. This is how habits work. Why am I writing about all this here? To warn all those who have problems with focusing their attention for a long time and with doing without digital devices. Electronics might become your habit. Many people (the stats keep changing, but remain high) use their phones to check their e-mails or messages on social networks before they even crawl out of their beds in the morning. Restaurant tables are adorned with all sorts of mobile phones, and many of us, more or less surreptitiously, check our phones while in a meeting with other, “real” people. Wireless Internet has become a fixture in restaurants. It means that we believe more interesting stimuli will reach us from our phone than from another human being. But it doesn’t have to be so. It often turns out that making an effort, activating our natu- ral curiosity, and the willingness to listen and talk is enough to notice that a conversation with another person might bring much more unique information than checking our mobile phone status. But whose decision is it? Our nucleus accumbens has to make that decision. People who know that Quo vadis, homo digitalus? Nucleus accumbens is our pleasure centre. It guides us through our actions so as we can derive as much pleasure as possible from what we’re doing – here and now.
  • 77. Trendbook 201377 Quo vadis, homo digitalus? talking to others and putting their phone away will bring them more pleasure simply do it. However, those who are not aware of this find it difficult to part with their mobiles even just for a while – they maintain a conversation, but each time they receive too few stimuli, they reach back for their “leash.” Maybe this text will make someone realise that he does exactly the same thing – and maybe it will make them understand why. It may also turn out that we are diehard fans of the benefits brought by smartphones, tablets, and the increasingly omnipresent access to the on- -line world. This is also true. Such benefits do exist. Maybe our interlocutor during a restaurant dinner is such a bore that no matter how hard we tried, we wouldn’t derive any pleasure from such interaction, certainly no bigger than from interacting with a smartphone. It might also be the case, and I’ll address it later. What is important for us is being cognizant of what happens to us and other people, and why. Certainly, one positive thing is that... The digital world is conducive to intellectual self-realisa- tion Undoubtedly, the modern world provides us with endless opportunities to fulfil the power of our intellect. A novelist no longer has to spend arduous hours writing with a quill as it was the case in the past. His fingers no longer have to endure the pain of pressing the keys of a traditional, statio- nary typewriter – a giant, cumbersome contraption whose type bars used to get jammed all the time. Now, thanks to our fantastic keyboards, which are becoming increasingly ergonomic, to the point of being touch-controlled, the man can convey his thoughts with less effort and from almost any location. A musician may immediately record his new composition, using a suitable app and singing to his smartp- hone. Not to mention scientists, chess players, architects, or even managers, whose life might become much easier – it all depends on whether they use technology to their own benefit or act like sheep and become its slaves. There is research which proves that playing computer, PlayStation, or smartphone games boosts your creativity and intellect. The results vary for different game types – it depends on whether a game really stimulates our development or is only a way to kill time. It depends on whether we actually use the abilities gained in the course of playing a game in other domains of the real world, or fall into the habit of playing for playing’s sake. Analysing the top games, it is clear that their clue is not wisdom – and the players themselves admit it. However, it is sure that even if the game is not particularly smart, it gives us pleasure and stimulates endorphins, dopa- mine, and serotonin, which in turn energises us to engage in other tasks and makes us succeed in intellectual challenges. Sadly, it is often the case that technology is driven by pe- ople whose main job is not to develop our intellect, but to devour our time. Winning the consumer’s time is crucial as thanks to this he can be persuaded by an advertisement and pulled away from other activities, including other com- munication channels that could show him a competitor’s ad. Hence, there is money here. If the battle is fought for the consumer’s time which he devotes to a specific chan- nel, technology developers take advantage of this in order to give the consumer as much fun as possible, and often to evoke his feeling of discontent once he aban- dons these channels. If we are not active on social ne- tworking sites for a couple of days, they send us an e- -mail with a caring message saying that it’s been a few days since we last logged in, and our friends X, Y, and Z have posted something (meaning: it is certainly something in- teresting and you will miss out if you don’t check it out now). Some time ago, social psychologists published rules on how to influence people. In the world of new technolo- gies, knowing these rules is particularly important. As stated by the leading portals 15 years ago - competition is just one click away. This is why familiarity with the above rules and the experience of those who can give us advice on how to use them is of much greater significance now because it changes the blind fight with fence boards into a masterful, precise swordplay. And that brings us to the fact that... ‘Big data’ exists – but the question which often remains is how to make the most of it? The term and the realm of big data bring one major problem. The field is reluctant to talk about it out loud, but it comes up in more private conversations. The digital world allows you to get a lot of information about its users. Some of them get terrified or even paranoid, deleting their information or fearing that they will be used against them. Indeed, your credit card number unwisely entered into an unsecured location may be the cause of theft. However, the leading banks are equally aware of such threats, and even if we have been careless, they will call us to suggest blocking the card if its details leaked and got into the wrong hands. This prevents both banks and customers from losing important data or money. Credit card transactions provide customers with the security to the extent that if, for example, we buy a trip paying with our card and a travel agency goes belly up, we can claim a refund from the card issuer. Sadly, it is often the case that technology is driven by people whose main job is not to develop our intellect, but to devour our time.
  • 78. Trendbook 201378 Quo vadis, homo digitalus? It is most often the case, however, that such data as e-mail addresses, demographics, or personal interests are collec- ted from us...and not always fully utilised. Indeed, social networking platforms know about us a lot – but advertisers may still define their target group as those aged 20-49, with average and higher incomes, living in cities, interested in travelling. Such criteria may be satisfied by both Martyna Wojciechowska (transl. note – a well-known Polish journa- list and traveller) and a mother of two who’s seeking the best deal for idle, all-inclusive holidays in Egypt. The psychograp- hies of these two women can vary considerably, and what really motivates their purchase is sometimes beyond the scope of marketers’ analyses. That is why the effectiveness of the lion’s share of e-mail marketing does not exceed a few per cent, even though it’s theoretically the most personal form of contact with the client. The same goes for the click through rate of ads. Of course, we know that an adverti- sement, even if it hasn’t been clicked, leaves some kind of trace in the form of brand awareness, but sometimes this awareness can be a lifetime thing, but we still won’t buy anything from this brand. This calls for analysing the awa- reness of brand features, preferably at a level beyond mere declarations, and their convergence with the features which are the most important to a particular user. A unique opportunity is provided by a cause-and-effect ana- lysis – what prompted the consumer to make a purchase, what had happened to him right before and much earlier. Unfortunately, without knowing the rudiments of psycho- logy, analysts and marketers often have no idea where to look and what to combine. The data are there, but there are too many to know which results from what. This is not always a direct action of the “I saw the ad, I bought the product” kind. Quite the contrary, it may be the case that I saw the ad, I didn’t buy the product, and I’m fed up with the ad. Increasingly, app manufacturers scare the user with ads in free lite apps, thus encouraging them to buy an add- -free pro version for a small price. Big data not always goes hand in hand with deep thinking. Experts in both of these areas often function quite separa- tely - data analysts know what they have access to, but do not display any interest in the humanities, while humanities specialists are not enough interested in data analysis and the digital world to investigate what could be obtained from this information. Digital companies often don’t even consider hiring the latter; nor do they treat them seriously in the recruitment process. This, in turn, is a sign of something that the field researchers refer to as... A crisis of deep thinking An interesting article has been recently published, titled How Busy People Find Time to Think Deeply (by Ben Casnocha). The author encourages busy people to keep a cool head and find time for doing nothing in particular, which might prove to be an excellent opportunity to do some thinking. Just as in the first point, it often happens here that the business world is especially inclined to fall into the trap of Catch-22 - tech- nologies allow us to do various things faster, but it does not mean we are able to find more time to think; it only means that we have time to do more things. I once heard a joke about the workers who were carrying a wheelbar- row back and forth. An out- side observer pointed out one important detail: the wheelbarrow was empty. Astonished, he asked why the workers were pushing the empty wheelbarrow to and fro. They said, “see, we are too busy to reload.” In a sense, this is the paradox of the need to be constan- tly available. Natalia has mentioned the no-mobile- -phobia phenomenon, the fear that one day we might forget to take our mobile phone with us and leave it at home. Would anything bad happen if we did? The answer is exactly what cer- tain people are starting to be afraid of. It has happe- ned to me a few times - I left my phone at home. Guilty as charged. Indeed, it was a pain, and yes, of course I had to apologise to a few callers for my lack of availability on that day. But, generally, sometimes we have to fly on board the plane for a few or several hours, during which we cannot connect with the world. This situation, however, doesn’t seem to make us feel as uncomfortable. Checking an e-mail is generally a  prevalent activity in today’s companies, and a lot of time is spent on it. Is the same amount of time devoted to thinking? This is what Ben Casnocha is driving at in his article. I once overheard a recruiter talking about a candidate he’s just interviewed, “She’s great. She said she’s addicted to her Blackberry. That’s great – we’ll be able to reach her any time.” The problem was that the position the woman was applying for was very important, somewhat conceptual, and her creativity and problem-solving skills should have been more vital than her Big data not always goes hand in hand with deep thinking. Experts in both of these areas often function quite separately - data analysts know what they have access to, but do not display any interest in the humanities, while humanities specialists are not enough interested in data analysis and the digital world to investigate what could be obtained from this information.
  • 79. Trendbook 201379 Quo vadis, homo digitalus? readiness to check e-mails regularly. Paradoxically, several years ago – in the age of faxes and letters - this routine activity was one of the secretarial duties, and required secre- taries to use a sieve and decide which mail goes to the boss and which doesn’t. Meanwhile, modern companies demand more availability rather than deep thinking. Hence, firms which implement genuinely ground-breaking innovations in their fields are few and far between. The exceptions are far better off than the majority. So, why is it that employees are becoming increasingly focu- sed on checking their inboxes rather than on allocating their time to think? There are three answers. Firstly, the feeling of anxiety that something important might come along, like a business opportunity, and they might miss it; secondly, the fear that a failure to check their e-mail might be deemed as negligence – it’s easy to assess an employee on that, while it’s difficult to assess him on his deep thinking skills; thirdly, plain convenience - it’s much easier to check and respond to e-mails than to get down to a new task and to deep thinking, which we are not even sure will bring any results. The first reason I mentioned is associated with the pheno- menon intensified by the advancement of digital world and new technologies, not only in business. It’s our growing... Impatience – decreased tolerance of time Every now and then, I meet people with impressive business experience. One of my friends, the long-standing director of a foreign advertising agency, who started his professional career in 1970, told me that around the time he had started working, a normal pace was to shoot new commercials during the course of four to six months. Out of the question today. He said, “when my friends tell me what is happening now, I can see that the problems are the same, it’s the de- adlines that have changed.” Despite technological development, our brain doesn’t change that rapidly. It has been more or less the same for centuries – accustomed to governing the body in a way so that we wake up in the morning, stay active throughout the day, and rest at night. Naturally, our brain has always been and will always be impatient. The nucleus accumbens, taking care of our pleasures here and now, hates waiting for deferred gratification. While shopping on-line, it’s important to us to get the things delivered within a couple of days. Having bought something on the Internet, a client wants to receive an order confirmation and the information on what’s happening to the product and when it’s going to be delivered (it has been confirmed by many e-commerce workers). As a result, our patience is at an all-time low. Not so long ago, it was normal that in order to transfer money, you had to go to the bank. Now, most of us can do it immediately with our phones or computers. Customer service lines are also 24/7. We are used to thinking that this gives us control over the situation. We don’t want to wait. If there was a commercial advertising a bank whose lines are available 22/7, we would consider it ridiculous. In the meantime, most of us hardly ever call the bank between 3 and 5 a.m., and it’s probably not necessary for banks to have their lines open at these hours. But what would our impatient customers say!? Impatience fuels the urge to satisfy needs imme- diately. We are getting increasingly incapable of deferring gratification. Meanwhile, as shown by psychological experiments, it’s frequently not the im- patient ones that succeed in life. Some time ago, there were experiments conduc- ted on children which pre- sented them with a tough choice: either they get one piece of candy (a marsh- mallow) which they can eat immediately, or they can save the marshmallow for later, be in the same room with it, and wait patiently for another one. Some children ate their marshmallow right away; some managed to overcome their impatience and got the well-earned reward. The kids were observed for a number of years. As it turned out, those who waited for the second marshmallow turned out to be more successful in life than the impatient ones. Naturally, shorter waiting time means progress and deve- lopment. It allows us to get what we want faster. Nevert- heless, we must notice the point at which we’re becoming slaves to our own impatience. Responding immediately to other people’s messages and expecting others to do the same means a much shorter communication cycle. The qu- estion remains if we find time to think our answers through, find time to contemplate, and to “reload the wheelbarrow.” There is no doubt that marketers deliberately take advan- tage of the impatience of consumers and users of the digital world. Some time ago, peer-to-peer platforms which allo- wed us to download certain materials (abused by bootleg- gers, but that’s another story) worked in two modes: a free mode, in which you had to wait until the downloading started, and a fee-based mode, in which you could start downloading instantaneously. The same undying popularity is enjoyed by all the systems Despite technological development, our brain doesn’t change that rapidly. It has been more or less the same for centuries – accustomed to governing the body in a way so that we wake up in the morning, stay active throughout the day, and rest at night.
  • 80. Trendbook 201380 Quo vadis, homo digitalus? of the instant messenger type, both in smartphones and in computers. We want to have a fast, continuous contact with many people. Is this contact a meaningful one? The digitalisation of the world surely leads to... A shift in the nature of the relations between people In the past, whenever we wanted to know how our friends were, we had to meet up with them face-to-face or call them. In many cases today, however, it’s enough to just log in to a social networking site and read their most recent posts – we will know everything without even asking. We assume that silence means nothing interesting is going on in a particular person’s life right now. We no longer have to meet the whole bunch of friends we have – social networks create an illusion of keeping in touch with all of them. Our messages are getting more and more succinct. Blogging used to be in fashion once; now it has been replaced with microblogging. A Twitter post must not exceed 140 charac- ters. It’s even less than the standard length of the first short text messages. If a Facebook or LinkedIn post is longer than the specified number of signs, only the first few lines will be visible, and those interested in the rest will have to click “see more.” Simplicity is what we’re aiming at, but more and more often simplicity is tantamount to superficiality. For instance, in one of the recent episodes of the Voice of Poland talent show, there appeared a new element – parti- cipants are to tweet while the previously shot episode is on air. Looking at these posts, it’s clearly visible that all of them are...similar. It is often the case with other social networking sites and their users. On the other hand, however, social networking platforms might help in overcoming shyness and interacting with others. They sometimes replace small talk, so problematic to many people. Some time ago, Facebook games were perfect examples of how we could approach someone without ha- ving to resort to a difficult, or perhaps trivial, habit of striking up a conversation. Digital world helps people become more open to others. For centuries, people have found it easier to convey something very personal or difficult in writing rather than in speech, face to face. Smartphones, tablets, or computers allow for a much more frequent exchange of a written word – this way is much easier. Unfortunately, such opportunities of virtual contacts often debilitate our real-life activities. I remember one funny story told by a blogger writing under the name of Wawrzyniec Prusky. It was about a real-life meeting of a group of people who had first met via an on-line messenger. Despite their earlier lively message exchange in the virtual world, the meeting face-to-face was a big flop. Silence prevailed. They brought the meeting to a halt and couldn’t wait to get back to their virtual chats. Internet, computers, smartphones, tablets – they all gather a lot of informa- tion, both widely available and those concerning our private data. Therefore, what we’re witnessing is the increasing... Limitation of human me- mory, whose significance is grossly underestimated 20 years ago, I used to remember all my friends’ phone numbers. That was the easiest way. Thanks to storing them in my memory, I wasn’t dependent on carrying my address book with me all the time. Back then, telephones didn’t store information. In the case of public phones, in particular, you had to fend for yourself. Phone books didn’t provide full information. Meanwhile, now I am able to recall five or so telephone numbers. Why remember more? After all, I’ve got them all in my phone and Outlook. In the past, schools used to make students learn many facts by heart. It is still the case in our country – the educational system in Poland seems to have missed the information and IT revolution. Students’ attitude to the memorising of dates, events, facts, or book quotes is of genuine astonishment – why memorise it if it’s all googleable? It turns out, unfortunately, that with that attitude, we’re just scoring our own goal. Initially, we were delighted with the fact that virtually anything could be found on-line and stored on a computer, smartphone, or tablet. However, it all debilitates our memorising capacities. Memory works best when assisted by an emotional charge – we’ll remember something provided it’s truly important to us emotionally. It has been confirmed by experts dealing with memory pro- cesses and by such phenomena as the so-called flashbulb memory effect – we might not remember what we were doing on September 2, 2001, but the majority of us has no difficulty recalling what we were doing and where we were doing it nine days later, on September 11, when we heard the news about the planes hijacked by terrorists crashing into buildings in the USA. Human memory is astonishingly capacious. Once our emo- tions are truly active and aid the memorising process, we are capable of remembering a virtually unlimited number of events for many years. If, however, we are not motivated enough, nothing will come out of our efforts at memorising things – as in “why learn different languages if we are able to Human memory is astonishingly capacious. Once our emotions are truly active and aid the memorising process, we are capable of remembering a virtually unlimited number of events for many years.
  • 81. Trendbook 201381 Quo vadis, homo digitalus? communicate in English everywhere,” “why learn geography and the names of capital cities if we can search-engine anything anytime,” “why overload our memory if we can choose not to burden our brain with redundant details.” Memory can and should be trained. Not so long ago, there appeared an article entitled Why Your Memory Matters More Than Your Experience by Colin Shaw. The answer to the que- stion posed in the title is simple – because if our memory is well-trained, we can learn new things quickly and efficiently. People whose memorizing skills are poor and who have only experiences will remain mentally stuck in the past. Memory is a vital element of success in both professional and private life. Computers have something called working memory. In our life, this type of memory is particularly im- portant. Let’s imagine that we’re participating in business negotiations – if we can’t remember anything, then what? We’ll be forced to look at our notes and previous documents all the time. Even if that’s possible, there’s no denying that the more information we have in our head, the better, since we can efficiently refer to them during our negotiations, and associate the piece of information we memorised earlier with the new one. When it comes to one’s personal life, I don’t think I have to explain what happens if we fail to remember about things which are important to our loved ones. They feel ignored and irrelevant. And not everything is smartphone-storable. The more we remember and can refer to while talking with others without any assistance, the better our relations with other people will be.
  • 82. Trendbook 201382 Natalia Hatalska Expert in non-traditional communication methods, trendwatcher, blogger. A graduate of the University of Gdansk and Poznan University of Economics. As a scholar of the prestigious Joseph Conrad Scholarship program also studied at the London Business School, UK. In 2005-2009 head of communication department in Wirtualna Polska (second biggest portal in Poland, part of Orange Group). Previously, PR Manager at NIVEA Poland and Young Digital Planet. Currently working with the media house Universal McCann as Chief Inspiration Officer. Originator of award-winning campaigns based on non-traditional communication methods. Member of the jury in the advertising and promotional contests such as Polish Advertising Competition KTR, Media Trendy Competition, YC Eurobest,Blog of the Year, Superbrands, CMO of the Year. Member of Creative Communication Cluster. Member of the Board of Experts ThinkTank Polska. Columnist at Sukces magazine. Author of http://hatalska.com blog about non-traditional advertising recognized as one of 10 the most influential blogs in Poland. About the author
  • 83. Trendbook 201383 Strategic Partner Edition Partner TrendBook 2013 translated by: TurboTranslations.com - fast, professional online translations 24/7. Graphic Design Marianna Wybieralska www.4panny.pl Syd Breslauer www.sydbreslauer.com © Natalia Hatalska, May 2013 The report is available on the Creative Commons licence: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Generic (CC BY-NC-ND 2.5)

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