Felmy api 2010

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Felmy api 2010

  1. 1. Economic Impact Study Marcellus Shale report from economists and industry experts at Penn State 2010 • $8 billion annual impact and 107,000 jobs •$900 million in state/local tax revenue* 2020 •$14 billion annual impact and 175,000 jobs •$1.4 billion state/local tax revenue *30 percent tax revenue remains local
  2. 2. AAA Regular Gasoline and NYMEX Crude Oil Price
  3. 3. AAA Diesel and NYMEX Crude Oil Price
  4. 4. World liquid fuels consumption is projected to increase by 1.5 million bbl/d in 2010 million barrels per day million barrels per day 95 5.5 Forecast 90 Total consumption 85 4.5 80 3.5 75 70 2.5 Annual growth 65 1.5 60 55 0.5 50 45 -0.5 40 -1.5 35 30 -2.5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 China United States Other
  5. 5. Oil prices relate to many uncertain factors Non-OPEC supply growth Inventories OPEC production Global economic decisions growth Global Spare production Oil Prices Speculation, hedging, capacity investment Exchange rates and Geo-political risks Inflation Weather
  6. 6. Price Summary Year Percent Change 2008 2009 2010 2011 08-09 09-10 10-11 99.57 61.66 80.74 83.50 -38.1 30.9 3.4 WTI Crudea ($/barrel) 3.26 2.35 2.84 2.96 -27.9 20.8 4.4 Gasolineb ($/gal) 3.80 2.46 2.95 3.12 -35.1 19.9 5.7 Dieselc ($/gal) 3.38 2.52 2.91 3.10 -25.4 15.4 6.6 Heating Oild ($/gal) 13.89 11.97 11.59 12.54 -13.8 -3.2 8.2 Natural Gasd ($/mcf) 11.26 11.55 11.50 11.74 2.5 -0.4 2.1 Electricityd (cents/kwh) a West Texas Intermediate. b Average regular pump price. c On-highway retail. d U.S. Residential average.
  7. 7. Summer retail regular-grade gasoline prices projected to average $2.92 per gallon dollars per gallon 5.00 2008 Avg. $3.81 4.00 2010 2007 Forecast Avg. $2.93 2009 avg. $2.92 Avg. $2.44 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Tax Crude Margin* Monthly retail price * Retail price minus crude oil cost minus taxes, per gallon
  8. 8. Summer retail diesel prices are projected to average $2.97 per gallon, up $0.51 from last summer dollars per gallon 2008 5.00 Avg. $4.37 2010 4.00 Forecast 2007 2009 avg. $2.97 Avg. $2.85 Avg. $2.46 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Tax Crude Margin* Monthly retail price * Retail price minus crude oil cost minus taxes, per gallon
  9. 9. 37.4 28.0 24.0 20.7 22.7 10.9 7.4 40.4 8.6
  10. 10. 0.2 26 36 34 4
  11. 11. 71 23 95 5 1 42 16 1
  12. 12. 2008 2035 %Change Consumption Quads % Share Quads % Share Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum 38.35 38.3% 42.02 36.7% 9.6% Oil 37.40 37.4% 38.10 33.3% 1.9% Ethanol, Biodiesel and Green Liquids 0.95 0.9% 3.92 3.4% 312.6% Natural Gas 23.91 23.9% 25.56 22.3% 6.9% Coal 22.41 22.4% 25.11 21.9% 12.0% Nuclear Power 8.46 8.5% 9.41 8.2% 11.2% Hydropower 2.46 2.5% 2.99 2.6% 21.5% Biomass & Renewables 4.27 4.3% 9.19 8.0% 115.2% Other* 0.24 0.2% 0.22 0.2% Total 100.09 100.0% 114.51 100.0% 14.4% Oil and Natural Gas 61.31 61.3% 63.66 55.6% 3.8% Oil, Natural Gas and Coal 83.72 83.6% 88.77 77.5% 6.0%
  13. 13. Carbon Emissions Per Capita Assuming Waxman-Markey Targets Are Met Metric Tons of CO2 Per Capita Targeted Reductions Source: Garrett A. Vaughn, “How Much Will Americans Pay to Meet President Obama’s Timetable for Cutting Greenhouse Gas Emissions?” Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, ER-676, April 2009.

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