To the 5th Generation? The Future of Mobile Communications


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To the 5th Generation? The Future of Mobile Communications

  1. 1. Nigel Jefferies Huawei Technologies WWRF Chair 29th November 2011, Edinburgh To the 5th Generation? – the future of mobile communications
  2. 2. Main topics • Huawei • The Wireless World Research Forum • ICT development • The WWRF Vision • Why 5G? • Research Directions • Conclusion
  3. 3. Huawei - Sustainable Growth  Leading global ICT solutions provider  Serving 1/3 of the world’s population  Serving 45 of the world's top 50 telecom operators with ~65% of our sales from these operators  Main contributor of industry standards  70% of revenue from outside China Revenue (CNY in billion)  Huawei Technologies releases an annual report with consolidated financial statements audited by KPMG  Chinese Yuan is the company’s functional currency (around 10 to the £) 2006 2007 2008 2009 (CNY66.4 bln) (CNY93.8 bln) (CNY125.2 bln) (CNY149.1bln) (CNY185 bln) 28 21.8 18.3 12.8 8.5 2010 Page 3 Continuously creating long-term value for customers 24% 2011 (Target) (CNY199 bln) 31 (CNY98.3 bln) H1 15.2
  4. 4. Huawei’s position in the All-IP convergence era The only telecom supplier ranking in the top 3 for all these areas; Comprehensive strengths in the All-IP based FMC era No. 3 No. 1No. 2 Page 4 • Source Infonetics: GPON, Switch ; OVUM: Optical, Router, Skylight: Microwave; Dell’oro: RAN, Packet Switch; Gartner: Software • FMC: Fixed Mobile Convergence • SP: Service Provider * Excluding NA IP Mobile Fixed All-IP based FMC Mobile Ranking RAN Packet Switch (PS) Microwave No.1 Ericsson Huawei Ericsson No.2 Huawei Ericsson Huawei No. 3 NSN NSN NEC Fixed IP Ranking GPON Optical No.1 Huawei Huawei No.2 ALU ALU Ranking SP IP Router * SP Ethernet Switch No.1 Cisco Cisco No.2 Huawei Huawei Ranking Service Delivery Platform (SDP) Customer Billing Management No.1 Huawei Amdocs No.2 Accenture Accenture No.3 Ericsson Huawei Software
  5. 5. Huawei’s growing influence in the wireless market Page 5 2008 2010 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Others, 20.0% Alcatel Lucent, 16.7% Nokia Siemens, 21.7% Huawei, 10.9% Ericsson, 30.7% Others, 11.0% Alcatel Lucent, 15.6% Nokia Siemens, 19.1% Huawei, 20.8% Ericsson, 33.5% ERICSSON 33.5% HUAWEI 20.8% NOKIA SIEMENS 19.1% ALCATEL- LUCENT 15.6% OTHERS 11.0% Wireless Market Share in 2010
  6. 6. 20 Huawei R&D centres worldwide Munich San Diego Santa Clara Dallas Boston Paris Moscow HeadquartersMilan Sweden Shenzhen Beijing ShanghaiChengdu Xi An Nanjing Bangalore Hangzhou Wuhan Turkey New Jersey Chicago Fundamental Algorithms Next Generation Internet, Chips, and Software FMC, Fixed Network Microwave Wireless & Network Wireless & Device San Diego, USA Dallas Texas, USA Moscow, Russia Bangalore, India Munich, Germany Stockholm/ Goteborg, Sweden Paris, France Milan, Italy
  7. 7. WWRF Role • Develop future vision of the wireless world • Inform and educate on trends and developments • Enable and facilitate the translation of the vision into reality • Bring a wide range of parties together to identify and overcome significant roadblocks to the vision Page 7
  8. 8. Principles of Operation • Global • Open to all • Not • standards body • research funding body • A typical research conference • Based on membership • All can attend meetings and make contributions Page 8
  9. 9. Current Sponsor Members Page 9
  10. 10. Working Groups WG1: Human Perspective and future service concepts WG2: Services and Service Architectures WG3: Communication Architectures WG4: New Air Interfaces, Relay-based Systems and Smart Antennas WG5: Short Range Radio Communication Systems WG6: Cognitive Networks and Systems for a Wireless Future Internet WG7: Security and Trust WG8: Spectrum Issues WG ad hoc: Wireless for Emerging Economics Page 10
  11. 11. WWRF outputs • WWRF Outlook – published version of White Paper • WWRF Library – proceedings of each meeting • WWRF – Wiley Book series (5 published, 3 in prep.) • WWRF – IEEE Journal Series
  12. 12. Publications
  13. 13. ICT development in the past 20 years Digital From 1.2 billion computers and 1.5 billion telephone users To 2 billion internet users and 5 billion mobile users  Ubiquitous communications  Digital flood
  14. 14. Beyond: new telecom services in the next 10 years From voice to data 5.5 billion MBB users, 1.5 billion FBB users From pipe to content all media will be on-line , 750 million connected TV users From people to machines 50 billion connections (the Internet of Things) From CT to ICT 70% of companies (especially SMEs) will be using Cloud-based services By 2020 Connected Digitalized Digital Society ICT Enabled
  15. 15. The Cloud: the next IT revolution Mainframes PC Cloud Server Network Storage Security Power & cooling Cloud-Oriented Hardware Cloud Operation system OS & Virtualization Distributed File system Distributed Database Parallel Compute Automatic management Dynamic Resource dispatcher Virtual Desktop Virtual Data Center IPTV App store …… OSS/BS S in Cloud Cloud Datacente r Solution (Cloud Platform) OSS/BS S for Cloud Telecom App. Cloud Solution (Cloud Services) Cloud Operation Solution disruptive technologies Enterprise App. Cloud OA/ERP/CR M E-health E-traffic E- government …… Cloud Application Platform Development Executive Deployment Distributed Web Framework Telecom Service Cloud
  16. 16. WWRF Vision in a nutshell 7 trillion wireless devices serving 7 billion people by 2020 • All people will be served with wireless devices • Affordable to purchase and operate • Calm computing: technology invisible to users • Machine to machine communications • Sensors and tags: e.g. in transport and weather systems, infrastructure, to provide ambient intelligence and context sensitivity • All devices are part of the (mobile) internet
  17. 17. WWRF Vision in a nutshell • Wireless device(s) becomes our interface to the digital world • An ambient life style where • ... our mobile device becomes the key enabler to interact with smart environments and users • … our mobile guides and supports us against “digital threats” • Has to be charged once a month only – green technology • Untethered and connected user experience • Ubiquituous service delivery with a consistent user experience
  18. 18. An ambient life style... seven trillion wireless devices running services, that are  Easy to create  - Creation tools and publishing - Service taxonomies - Reuse existing services and components - Semantic orchestration of components and loosely coupled approach  Easy to share   - Generalised client-server / P-2-P architecture - « My server in my pocket » « My server at home» - Service deployment in just a few clicks - Semantic based publishing  Easy to use  - Semantic Service discovery - Fine grain semantic-based search - Interoperability, composability of services Source: EU-ITEA Project S4All, 2003 Services & Service Architectures
  19. 19. Vision: X increase 5G 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1G 2G 3G 4G Mbps kbps bps Gbps AMPS ? 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1G 2G 3G 4G Mbps kbps bps Gbps AMPS ? Cell size shrinks Cell count increases 1 4 16 50 X Times Faster Wireless Connectivity is Required for 2020
  20. 20. Radio Access – Revolution or Evolution 1. Classical 5G Revolution – New generations replace older generations 2. Complementary 5G (R)evolution – 5G will complement 4G for specific scenarios 3. Long-term 4G Evolution – No new 5G air interface justified due to insufficient performance gain with new technologies
  21. 21. Do we need a new 5G air interface? New 5G air interface is justified if: 1. New air interface technologies with significant performance improvement can be developed. – Classically, this would be a change in the radio access scheme. – A new access scheme has to show high improvements to justify the revolutionary step. A 5G with high performance improvements would in the long term replace 4G. . New deployment scenarios and services emerge, which cannot be implemented with today‘s radio access schemes. – New scenarios like machine-to-machine and car-to-car communications might require a redesign of the radio frame structure and signalling to an extent, that it is more efficient to define a new air interface from scratch. A 5G revolution motivated by new deployment scenari os and s ervi ces wou l d complement 4G.
  22. 22. Data traffic growth factors • Increase in mobile broadband subscribers • More advanced devices like tablets and smart phones • New attractive services Prediction of data traffic growth for 2020 (relative to 2010) • In the last year, traffic doubled in some networks Total traffic growth could be 500–1000 times
  23. 23. Throughput in 2020 and beyond Throughput requirements • Fairness: High throughput should be available over the whole coverage area • Latency: The user experience should be as good as in wired networks or better • Flexibility: Services with different QoS/throughput requirements have to be supported • Robustness: Maintain connectivity with minimum required throughput in emergency scenarios like natural disasters Target throughput for 2020 (relative to 2010) Increase in – peak, – average and – cell edge throughput by a least a factor of 10
  24. 24. Energy consumption in 2020 and beyond Green Radio • Increase in RAN energy efficiency – sustainable network operation – reduced OPEX Remark • The power consumption of base stations does not increase linearly with the supported peak data rates
  25. 25. Research directions • New technologies with increased spectral efficiency • Heterogeneous network deployment with efficient integration of smaller cells • Traffic offloading • New spectrum • More flexible and efficient spectrum utilization
  26. 26. Other Future Research • Interference Management Self-clustering of cells for autonomous establishment of hierarchy, depending on infrastructure Usage of hybrids of centralized/decentralized interference management within clusters with the additional option of fast, localized responses to bursty traffic Interference management techniques in the context of direct D2D • Mobility and Session Management Strongly simplified signalling for neighbourhood discovery and handover Novel session management and modified protocol stacks for service-aware radio access, particularly in the context of M2M Novel cell concepts such as “virtual cells”, or alternative connectivity concepts where a device has uplink/downlink or data/control links to different cells, respectively Handover from device-infrastructure-device to direct D2D and vice versa • Network Infrastructure Self-organizing infrastructure connectivity with a varying degree of aggregation Network functionality to autonomously establish sub-networks Application processing capability distributed through the network
  27. 27. 4G and 5G technologies
  28. 28. Promising technologies Coordination and multisite MIMO Cognition S R R R R D virtual relays downlink uplink Cooperation and relaying Cell A Cell B Link A Link B Self-organisation
  29. 29. Radio link technologies • Investigate promising radio-link technologies (transmission waveform, multiple access, etc.) and scenarios to increase the spectral efficiency by more than factor of 2 in total • New transmission schemes and multiple access schemes, e.g. – Non-orthogonal signal waveform with faster-than-Nyquist signaling, etc. – Non-orthogonal multiple access assuming interference cancelation – Physical channel design such as reference signals and control channels Radio Link Technologies TDMA (2G) DS-CDMA (3G) OFDM(A) (4G) ?? (5G)
  30. 30. New Air Interfaces, Relay-based systems and Smart antennas • flexible, scalable and energy efficient air interface design, maximization of both peak and cell edge data rates and user capacity and guarantee ubiquitous coverage in high mobility scenarios • Enabling Technologies: • smart antenna, MIMO and Relaying • Intercell coordination and interference management • System concept challenges: Cellular scenario, Open Broadband Access, Meshed topologies
  31. 31. Device-to-device communications and mesh networks Elaborate the potential use cases (business models) of Device-to-Device (D2D) communications/mesh networking in cellular systems and identify promising architectures to realize them. D2D and mesh networks can be used to support maintaining connectivity in emergency scenarios like natural disasters • Investigate radio interface for efficient support of D2D communication and mesh networking e.g., – PHY and MAC layer transmission schemes – measurement and synchronization – interference management and radio resource management
  32. 32. Small Cells and Dense Heterogeneous Deployments
  33. 33. System Capacity – Deployments with smaller cells can more efficiently adapt to propagation and scenarios and traffic needs – Interference management and advanced receivers become more important in dense small-cell deployments Cost – Especially in dense small-cell deployments not only the cost per base station but also the cost for the network connection has to be considered Energy Efficiency – Low load situations allow for temporarily switching off more efficiently in small-cell deployments – Heterogeneous deployments with mixture of large and small cells are efficient from an energy efficiency point of view
  34. 34. System concept challenges Open Access Propagation constraints and lack of coordination creates challenging coverage and interference scenarios Rural/remote area Mesh Networks Flexible deployment at the expense of coverage vs throughput vs delay tradeoff Wide Area Local Area ‘Cellular’ scenario Single Link vs Single Cell vs Multicell optimization for peak / average / cell edge rate improvements [source: IST-WINNER]
  35. 35. Wireless World Research Forum 35 Autonomic/Cognitive Management Architectures for FI • Functional architectures, mapping to physical architectures of various standardization bodies (e.g. 3GPP, etc.), systems architectures for autonomic/cognitive management systems in the Future Internet • Technologies, mechanisms, platforms for the dynamic deployment/embodiment of autonomic/cognitive management functionality in network infrastructures Internet GW Management entity core contentaccess Autonomic network elements (ANE) Wi-Fi LTE Opportunistic networks Application server Autonomic network elements (ANE)
  36. 36. 2020 Spectrum/Regulation Vision • Efficient sensing techniques and Sufficient Spectrum are the basic requirements for: • broadband to every single user at “any” place • new applications such as: Sensor networks and M2M • very high speed broadband via short range wireless • Spectrum availability under regulatory terms and financial conditions allowing for: • Innovative, appealing services for the end-customers • A healthy competition so that the overall Wireless Eco System will further flourish • Thus Wireless will continue to be an important driver for our future information society
  37. 37. New Challenges due to • New technologies – UWB, 4G, Wireless Sensor Networks, CR • Band-sharing • SUR (spectrum usage rights) • CR (cognitive radio) regulatory framework • TV white spaces • Green radio
  38. 38. Thanks to • WWRF Visions Committee • Company Visions • Huawei • Intel • Cisco • NSN • DoCoMo
  39. 39. WWRF Meetings in 2012 Check the WWRF web site for the latest information WWRF28 Athens, Greece 23-25 April Hosted by University of Piraeus WWRF29 Berlin, Germany 23-25 October Hosted by NSN