Introduction to Empirical Food & Nutrition Security Analysis
Outline•   Concept•   Dimensions & Policy Options•   State of Food Insecurity Today•   Global Hunger Index•   Bangladesh S...
Food SecurityThe World Food Summit in 1996: “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and...
Food Security: Four Dimensions•   Access•   Availability•   Stabilization•   Utilization                    Food Security ...
Food Security: Policy Options(i) Increase food availability by (a) imports, (b) increased food production   by modern tech...
State of Food Insecurity
Food Insecurity• A major problem facing developing countries.• World: Number and percentage of undernourished  persons   ...
Number of hungry people, 1969-2010Source: FAO                   Food Security Introduction   8
Number of Hungry in the world: 925         million in 2010            Food Security Introduction   9
Global Hunger Index      IFPRI Index     Source: IFPRI
Global Hunger IndexObjectives:• Rank countries.• Compare international experience for policy  guidance.• Draw global atten...
Global Hunger Index• Sample:   • Based on 120 developing and transitional countries;   • Compares 88 only.• Three indicato...
Indicators#   Indicator                                    Purpose to measure1   % of calorie deficient /                 ...
Hunger Index ScaleIndex         Classification                          Color Code≥ 30.0        Extremely alarming20.0 – 2...
Country Classification: n= 120         732                                     E xtremely alarming                        ...
Global Trends: 1990 - 2008• Hunger (Global index): decreased by less than  one-fifth    1990: 18.7    2008: 15.2• Perfor...
Regional Profile: 2008• Status: Alarming    Sub-Saharan Africa: 23.3    South Asia: 23.0• Ten countries (highest levels ...
Country ProfilesBest score      Mauritius, followed by Jamaica, Moldova, Cuba, and                PeruWorst score     Demo...
Country ProfilesHighest proportion of                Eritrea: 75%population with calorie              DRC: 74%deficiencyHi...
Poverty Profile  Food Security Introduction   20
Where Do The                                                            Poor Live?Food Security Introduction              ...
Global Index ScaleIndex         Classification                     Color Code≥ 30.0        Extremely alarming20.0 – 29.9  ...
2008 Global Hunger Index               Source; IFPRI       Food Security Introduction   23
Progress – Regress          Source; IFPRI     Food Security Introduction   24
GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2008   Source: IFPRI                   Food Security Introduction   25
GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2011  Source: IFPRI                  Food Security Introduction   26
GHI: Progress in South, East and        Southeast Asia            Food Security Introduction   27
Bangladesh: Food Security Scenario                    http://www.usaid.gov/bd/programs/food_sec.html• Nearly self-sufficie...
Bangladesh: Policy Priorities  Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 20101. Agricultural Growth and Productivity of Cr...
Contemporary Policy Questions1. What is the state of food insecurity today?2. If the entire subsidy regime were to be refo...
Course Structure• Addresses issues related to food & nutrition  security within a quantitative framework. It raises issue...
Thank You
Supplementary Information
Food Security Introduction   34
Food Security Introduction   35
Food Security Introduction   36
Food Security Introduction   37
Food Security Introduction   38
Food Security Introduction   39
Food Security Introduction   40
Bangladesh: A Food Security Profile             Food Security Introduction   41
Bangladesh: Economic IndicatorsTotal Population (millions) - 2009 (WB)                          162.221Population growth r...
Bangladesh: Health IndicatorsPop. with sustainable access to improved                       53%sanitation - 2008 (WHO)Life...
Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS               Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010                                   ...
Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS              Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010                                    ...
Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS               Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010                                   ...
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Topic 1 policy analysis

  1. 1. Introduction to Empirical Food & Nutrition Security Analysis
  2. 2. Outline• Concept• Dimensions & Policy Options• State of Food Insecurity Today• Global Hunger Index• Bangladesh Scenario• Contemporary Policy Questions• Course Structure Food Security Introduction 2
  3. 3. Food SecurityThe World Food Summit in 1996: “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” Food Security Introduction 3
  4. 4. Food Security: Four Dimensions• Access• Availability• Stabilization• Utilization Food Security Introduction 4
  5. 5. Food Security: Policy Options(i) Increase food availability by (a) imports, (b) increased food production by modern technology/expansion of area under cultivation, (c) depleting stocks, (d) efficient market infrastructure, (e) land redistribution;(ii) Promote household/individual access to food by increasing entitlements (subsidies) or endowments (income transfers/asset redistribution/school feeding/nutrition programme);(iii) Better utilization of food by education and general environment like access to safe drinking water and sanitation. Food Security Introduction 5
  6. 6. State of Food Insecurity
  7. 7. Food Insecurity• A major problem facing developing countries.• World: Number and percentage of undernourished persons 2006-2008 - 850million (13%) 2000-2002 - 836million (14%) 1995-1997 - 792million (14%) 1990-1992 - 848million (16%) 1979-1981 - 853million (21%) 1969-1971 - 878million (26%) Source: http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/ Food Security Introduction 7
  8. 8. Number of hungry people, 1969-2010Source: FAO Food Security Introduction 8
  9. 9. Number of Hungry in the world: 925 million in 2010 Food Security Introduction 9
  10. 10. Global Hunger Index IFPRI Index Source: IFPRI
  11. 11. Global Hunger IndexObjectives:• Rank countries.• Compare international experience for policy guidance.• Draw global attention. Food Security Introduction 11
  12. 12. Global Hunger Index• Sample: • Based on 120 developing and transitional countries; • Compares 88 only.• Three indicators• Un-weighted average as an index Food Security Introduction 12
  13. 13. Indicators# Indicator Purpose to measure1 % of calorie deficient / Hunger under-nourished population2 % children underweight U5 Malnutrition of children, the most vulnerable to hunger3 U5 mortality rate (%) Child deaths caused by malnutrition & disease Food Security Introduction 13
  14. 14. Hunger Index ScaleIndex Classification Color Code≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming20.0 – 29.9 Alarming10.0 – 19.9 Serious5.0 – 9.9 Moderate hunger≤ 4.9 Low hunger Food Security Introduction 14
  15. 15. Country Classification: n= 120 732 E xtremely alarming 26 Alarming S erious Moderate L ow hunger23 32 Food Security Introduction 15
  16. 16. Global Trends: 1990 - 2008• Hunger (Global index): decreased by less than one-fifth  1990: 18.7  2008: 15.2• Performance by indicator  % underweight children: declined by 5.9 points Food Security Introduction 16
  17. 17. Regional Profile: 2008• Status: Alarming  Sub-Saharan Africa: 23.3  South Asia: 23.0• Ten countries (highest levels of hunger); nine are in Sub-Saharan Africa.• Ten best performers since 1990: None from Sub- Saharan Africa. Food Security Introduction 17
  18. 18. Country ProfilesBest score Mauritius, followed by Jamaica, Moldova, Cuba, and PeruWorst score Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), followed by Eritrea, Burundi, Niger, and Sierra LeoneMost progress Kuwait, Peru, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, and MexicoRegress DRC, North Korea, Swaziland, Guinea-Bissau, and Zimbabwe Food Security Introduction 18
  19. 19. Country ProfilesHighest proportion of Eritrea: 75%population with calorie DRC: 74%deficiencyHighest prevalence of India, Yemen, and Timor-underweight children Leste: more than 40%(a measure of malnutrition)Highest child mortality Sierra Leone: 27%(under 5) rate Angola: 26%Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction 19
  20. 20. Poverty Profile Food Security Introduction 20
  21. 21. Where Do The Poor Live?Food Security Introduction Food Security: Introduction 21
  22. 22. Global Index ScaleIndex Classification Color Code≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming20.0 – 29.9 Alarming10.0 – 19.9 Serious5.0 – 9.9 Moderate hunger≤ 4.9 Low hunger Food Security Introduction 22
  23. 23. 2008 Global Hunger Index Source; IFPRI Food Security Introduction 23
  24. 24. Progress – Regress Source; IFPRI Food Security Introduction 24
  25. 25. GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2008 Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction 25
  26. 26. GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2011 Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction 26
  27. 27. GHI: Progress in South, East and Southeast Asia Food Security Introduction 27
  28. 28. Bangladesh: Food Security Scenario http://www.usaid.gov/bd/programs/food_sec.html• Nearly self-sufficient in rice; Food security an elusive goal:• About 43% of children under-five stunted; – Cause: Malnourishment due to poor feeding habits & lack of access to nutritious foods.• Lack of diversity in diet: 75% of calories from rice.• Decline in agricultural growth rate : 4.7% in the late 1990’s to 2.8% by 2008.• Agriculture: Employs 80% population generates 22% of GDP• Bangladesh’s arable area: 37% ; natural disasters can affect 30% of this land. Food Security Introduction 28
  29. 29. Bangladesh: Policy Priorities Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 20101. Agricultural Growth and Productivity of Crops, and Adaptation to Climate Change2. Development of Fisheries and Livestock Sectors3. Agricultural Marketing, Price Stabilization, Value Chain, and Global/Regional Trade4. Income Growth, Social Safety Nets, and Public Food Distribution5. Food Utilization and Nutrition Security6. Cross-Cutting Issues: Governance and Gender Food Security Introduction 29
  30. 30. Contemporary Policy Questions1. What is the state of food insecurity today?2. If the entire subsidy regime were to be reformed as part of the economic reform programme, what would be the macroeconomic and distributional consequences?3. What are the different policy roles that a food subsidy prorgramme can play? What is the international evidence?4. How far an income transfer programme like food stamps is feasible in developing countries like Bangladesh and India? What is the international experience?5. How far did Bangladesh succeed in dealing with the 1979 famine? How useful is the information base for policy formulation and implementation?6. What are the effective alternatives to the ‘Food for Work Programme in Bangladesh’?7. What is the impact of commodity price volatility on nutritional intake of poor households in Bangladesh? Food Security Introduction 30
  31. 31. Course Structure• Addresses issues related to food & nutrition security within a quantitative framework. It raises issues within a quantitative framework; Describes appropriate statistical tools for analysis; Illustrates its application with reference to published studies / exercises based on sample data sets; and Interprets results and examines policy implications. Food Security Introduction 31
  32. 32. Thank You
  33. 33. Supplementary Information
  34. 34. Food Security Introduction 34
  35. 35. Food Security Introduction 35
  36. 36. Food Security Introduction 36
  37. 37. Food Security Introduction 37
  38. 38. Food Security Introduction 38
  39. 39. Food Security Introduction 39
  40. 40. Food Security Introduction 40
  41. 41. Bangladesh: A Food Security Profile Food Security Introduction 41
  42. 42. Bangladesh: Economic IndicatorsTotal Population (millions) - 2009 (WB) 162.221Population growth rate - 2009 (WB) 1%GNI per capita, $ PPP - 2009 (WB) 1550Population below 1$ PPP per day - 2005 49 %(MDGI)Rural population - 2009 (WB) 72 %Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) - 182009 (WB) Food Security Introduction 42
  43. 43. Bangladesh: Health IndicatorsPop. with sustainable access to improved 53%sanitation - 2008 (WHO)Life expectancy at birth (years) both 65%genders - 2008 (WHO) 65Pop. with access to improved drinking 80%water sources - 2008 (WHO)Prevalence of HIV among adults aged >= 0.05%15 years - 2009 (WHO) 0.05% Food Security Introduction 43
  44. 44. Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 1. Integrated research and extension to develop sustainable responses to climate change . 2. Improved water management and infrastructure for irrigation purposes. 3. Increased supply and sustainable use of agricultural inputs.Food Availability 4. Development of the fisheries sector. 5. Development of the livestock sector. 6. Improved access to markets, improved agricultural value added, increased nonfarm incomes. Food Security Introduction 44
  45. 45. Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 7. Enhanced capacity strengthening to formulate and implement food policiesFood Access and related investments. 8. Enhanced public food- management systems. 9. Development of an integrated, multiyear safety net program. Food Security Introduction 45
  46. 46. Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 10. Implementation of community-based nutrition activities through livelihood approaches.Food Utilization 11. Updated food consumption and food composition data and behavioral change communication on dietary diversification. 12. Improved food safety and quality. Food Security Introduction 46
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