High Impact Technology Update By Brian Wang Nov 15, 2008

Overview Energy Nuclear, Wind, Solar Computers Quantum Computers, Supercomputers, Optical Nanotechnology DNA Nano, Synthetic Bio, Mechanosynthesis, APM Claytronics, Programmable Matter, Brain Emulation Gene Therapy, Stem Cells, Transgenics, Synthetic Biology Biomarkers, Medicine Life Extension, Enhancement Robotics, Communication, Cameras, Sensors Space Putting it all Together Tech Controversy, Plans and Predictions

Energy

Nuclear, Wind, Solar

Computers

Quantum Computers, Supercomputers, Optical

Nanotechnology

DNA Nano, Synthetic Bio, Mechanosynthesis, APM

Claytronics, Programmable Matter, Brain Emulation

Gene Therapy, Stem Cells, Transgenics, Synthetic Biology

Biomarkers, Medicine

Life Extension, Enhancement

Robotics, Communication, Cameras, Sensors

Space

Putting it all Together

Tech Controversy, Plans and Predictions

Energy Tech Nuclear Fission Mass produced, Annular Fuel Nuclear Fusion Biofuels Energy Efficiency Wind – Kitegen Solar –Concentrated solar Coolearth, SunRGI, MIT Blacklight Power

Nuclear Fission

Mass produced, Annular Fuel

Nuclear Fusion

Biofuels

Energy Efficiency

Wind – Kitegen

Solar –Concentrated solar

Coolearth, SunRGI, MIT

Blacklight Power

World Energy 26 Trillion to be spent on energy infrastructure 26 billion tons of CO2 going to 40 billion tons in 2030 Unless changes are made More economic growth and more wealth needs more energy and resources $60 billion for California alone to get to 33% renewables (solar, wind, geothermal etc…)

26 Trillion to be spent on

energy infrastructure

26 billion tons of CO2 going

to 40 billion tons in 2030

Unless changes are made

More economic growth and more wealth needs more energy and resources

$60 billion for California alone to get to 33% renewables (solar, wind, geothermal etc…)

Mass Produced Deep Burn Nuclear Fission Hyperion Power Generation China’s High Temperature Reactor AP1000 Factories Fuji Molten Salt Reactor Russian Breeder Reactor Power Uprating, 80 year life [small ball baseball] New build mainly in China, Russia, India, Brazil 373 GW + 350 GW conventional + 150 GW 2025 + 60GW uprates

Hyperion Power Generation

China’s High Temperature Reactor

AP1000 Factories

Fuji Molten Salt Reactor

Russian Breeder Reactor

Power Uprating, 80 year life [small ball baseball]

New build mainly in China, Russia, India, Brazil

373 GW + 350 GW conventional + 150 GW 2025 + 60GW uprates

Nuclear Fusion Inertial Electrostatic Fusion Focus Fusion General Fusion Colliding Beam Fusion Laser Fusion 80% on IEC and Colliding Beam 2014-2020 Tough to meaningfully scale for impact before 2025 but could start impact on space access

Inertial Electrostatic Fusion

Focus Fusion

General Fusion

Colliding Beam Fusion

Laser Fusion

80% on IEC and Colliding Beam 2014-2020

Tough to meaningfully scale for impact before 2025 but could start impact on space access

Biofuels from Seaweed, Algae, Fungus, Weeds and Waste Regular Crops Seaweed (Japan, Indonesia) Algae Weeds Jatropha (India) Camelina (Canada) Fungus Waste (Coskata and others) E10 blend wall Biobutonal Bu16 (up to 22 billion gallons) More E85 flex fuel and flex in general 36 billion gallon US target 2022, 140 billion gallons US, 600 billion gallons worldwide

Regular Crops

Seaweed (Japan, Indonesia)

Algae

Weeds

Jatropha (India)

Camelina (Canada)

Fungus

Waste (Coskata and others)

E10 blend wall

Biobutonal Bu16 (up to 22 billion gallons)

More E85 flex fuel and flex in general

36 billion gallon US target 2022, 140 billion gallons US, 600 billion gallons worldwide

More Efficient Engines and lighter vehicles Diesel ecomotors Free Piston Engine Reduce weight by 60% and improve fuel efficiency 30% Hybrids and Electrics Ultracapacitors

Diesel

ecomotors

Free Piston Engine

Reduce weight by 60% and improve fuel efficiency 30%

Hybrids and Electrics

Ultracapacitors

Superconductors and Thermoelectrics Industrial engines coming from South Korea Smaller and more efficient Actual deployment for electric grid Prospects for room temperature superconductors Thermoelectrics utilize waste heat. Better AC, refrigerators, up car efficiency 10-30% gain in overall efficiency of entire energy infrastructure Capturing waste heat for aluminum and industrial processes would be big

Industrial engines coming from South Korea

Smaller and more efficient

Actual deployment for electric grid

Prospects for room temperature superconductors

Thermoelectrics utilize waste heat. Better AC, refrigerators, up car efficiency 10-30% gain in overall efficiency of entire energy infrastructure

Capturing waste heat for aluminum and industrial processes would be big

Faster Computers –Exaflops/Zettaflops Tensilica GPGPUs Onchip Photonic Communication All Digital Radios Trigate/EUV/CNT FET 3D stackable chips New Memory

Tensilica

GPGPUs

Onchip Photonic Communication

All Digital Radios

Trigate/EUV/CNT FET

3D stackable chips

New Memory

Quantum Computers Scaling up to thousands of qubits in 2009. 2007 was 16 qubits. This qubit implemention not fully connected (may need to square the number of qubits) What are the quantum algorithms? How much better are the answers ? What are the answers without Ok approximations – Relates to AGI. We have better answers now that go unimplemented Major impact would be faster molecular nanotech development from bigger and better quantum simulations

Scaling up to thousands of qubits in 2009. 2007 was 16 qubits.

This qubit implemention not fully connected (may need to square the number of qubits)

What are the quantum algorithms?

How much better are the answers ? What are the answers without Ok approximations – Relates to AGI. We have better answers now that go unimplemented

Major impact would be faster molecular nanotech development from bigger and better quantum simulations

Transformation Optics Transformation optics is a field of optical and material engineering and science embracing nanophotonics, plasmonics, and optical metamaterials. The list of possible breakthroughs includes a cloak of invisibility; computers and consumer electronics that use light instead of electronic signals to process information [optical computers]; a "planar hyperlens" that could make optical microscopes 10 times more powerful and able to see objects as small as DNA; advanced sensors; and more efficient solar collectors.

Transformation optics is a field of optical and material engineering and science embracing nanophotonics, plasmonics, and optical metamaterials. The list of possible breakthroughs includes a cloak of invisibility; computers and consumer electronics that use light instead of electronic signals to process information [optical computers]; a "planar hyperlens" that could make optical microscopes 10 times more powerful and able to see objects as small as DNA; advanced sensors; and more efficient solar collectors.

DNA Sequencing $5000 for a genome available early 2009 (already announced) $1000 or less 2009-2011 $100 or less 2011-2014 Over 99% of bacteria not identified (dirt, oceans, our bodies – does not grow in petri dish) Faster and cheaper sequencing helps synthesis Totally synthetic life: 582,000 BP California Institute of Technology, led by biomolecular engineer Niles Pierce , has created a DNA-based fabricator.

$5000 for a genome available early 2009 (already announced)

$1000 or less 2009-2011

$100 or less 2011-2014

Over 99% of bacteria not identified (dirt, oceans, our bodies – does not grow in petri dish)

Faster and cheaper sequencing helps synthesis

Totally synthetic life: 582,000 BP

California Institute of Technology, led by biomolecular engineer Niles Pierce , has created a DNA-based fabricator.

DNA Nanotechnology Structural DNA (3D patterns) DNA assembled one million 15nm gold nanoparticles DNA optical wires IBM: DNA make CNT grid Building other stuff with DNA DNA Nanotech device projects Sensors, antennas, surgery Turning cells into DNA nanotech factories (trillions of copies) DNA robotic arms DNA Sewing machine

Structural DNA (3D patterns)

DNA assembled one million 15nm gold nanoparticles

DNA optical wires

IBM: DNA make CNT grid

Building other stuff with DNA

DNA Nanotech device projects

Sensors, antennas, surgery

Turning cells into DNA nanotech factories (trillions of copies)

DNA robotic arms

DNA Sewing machine

Atomically Precise Manufacturing and Mechanosynthesis Zyvex APM Perfect quantum dots (hundreds to millions) Micro Automation Parallel micro-assembly Molecularly Precise Tools Patterned Atomic Layer Epitaxy Single atom layer with precise removals as needed before next layer Philip Mortiarty funded Verify Freitas and Merkle Mechanosynthesis

Zyvex APM

Perfect quantum dots (hundreds to millions)

Micro Automation

Parallel micro-assembly

Molecularly Precise Tools

Patterned Atomic Layer Epitaxy

Single atom layer with precise removals as needed before next layer

Philip Mortiarty funded

Verify Freitas and Merkle Mechanosynthesis

Claytronics and Programmable Matter/Avogadro Computers Intel’s and CMU Claytronics MIT Avogradro Computing

Intel’s and CMU Claytronics

MIT Avogradro Computing

Brain Emulation Brain emulation roadmap Rat brain simulation using 30 teraflops We have 1.3 petaflops sustained Human scale level 4 emulation needs about 36 petaflops

Brain emulation roadmap

Rat brain simulation using 30 teraflops

We have 1.3 petaflops sustained

Human scale level 4 emulation needs about 36 petaflops

Materials – Carbon Nanotubes, Graphene, Diamond Carbon Nanotubes Meter long strands Multi-thousand ton factories ~2012 Graphene Strong Higher volume production Diamond Kilocarats 1.5 Billion tons of steel (2009) 2.5 billion tons of concrete carbon fiber 46,000 tons 2009  88,000 tons 2015 New states of matter

Carbon Nanotubes

Meter long strands

Multi-thousand ton factories ~2012

Graphene

Strong

Higher volume production

Diamond

Kilocarats

1.5 Billion tons of steel (2009)

2.5 billion tons of concrete

carbon fiber 46,000 tons 2009  88,000 tons 2015

New states of matter

Gene Therapy, Stem Cells, Transgenics, Synthetic Biology Gene Therapy All muscle cells in a dog Could be used to transfer Aids/HIV immunity Transgenics Higher Food production Stem Cells Synthetic biology

Gene Therapy

All muscle cells in a dog

Could be used to transfer Aids/HIV immunity

Transgenics

Higher Food production

Stem Cells

Synthetic biology

Biomarkers, cheap tests and real cures Canary Foundation goal: early detection tests for solid tumor cancers by 2015 Effective early cancer tests could save over $50 billion (out of $89 billion) per year in medical costs and 400,000 lives each year in the USA and 5 million lives around the world. 7 million cancer deaths/yr worldwide. Proven with pap smear ($8) and cervical cancer (70% reduction) Other cheap blood and other biomarker test devices (other diseases and medical threats)

Canary Foundation goal: early detection tests for solid tumor cancers by 2015

Effective early cancer tests could save over $50 billion (out of $89 billion) per year in medical costs and 400,000 lives each year in the USA and 5 million lives around the world. 7 million cancer deaths/yr worldwide.

Proven with pap smear ($8) and cervical cancer (70% reduction)

Other cheap blood and other biomarker test devices (other diseases and medical threats)

Life Extension Resveratrol, sirtuin Telomerase SENS project

Resveratrol, sirtuin

Telomerase

SENS project

Human Enhancement Immune System Enhancement DARPA Work Curing Obesity Regeneration Tissue Engineering from scaffolds Brain Computer Interfaces

Immune System Enhancement

DARPA Work

Curing Obesity

Regeneration

Tissue Engineering from scaffolds

Brain Computer Interfaces

Robotics, Prosthestics, Exoskeletons, UAVs, Robotic Cars Needed for safe flying cars and to correct safety flaws of automobiles and fix transportation Blood Stream Robots – pill to Bacteria size from several research groups and nanoparticles and macroparticles Heartland Robotics – Rodney Brooks I want to effect a powerful evolution in the world's labor markets, and my current focus is to develop low-cost robots that will empower American workers

Needed for safe flying cars and to correct safety flaws of automobiles and fix transportation

Blood Stream Robots – pill to Bacteria size from several research groups and nanoparticles and macroparticles

Heartland Robotics – Rodney Brooks

I want to effect a powerful evolution in the world's labor markets, and my current focus is to develop low-cost robots that will empower American workers

High Speed Communication White space modems 100 Mbps Wireless 1 Gbps + Free space lasers 60Ghz 5 Gbps Taiwan chip <$1 Better encoding go to 20 Gbps Terabit optical internet

White space modems 100 Mbps

Wireless 1 Gbps +

Free space lasers

60Ghz 5 Gbps Taiwan chip <$1

Better encoding go to 20 Gbps

Terabit optical internet

Better Video, Still Cameras and Holograms Red Camera Company

Red Camera Company

Controversial Technology EmDrive Blacklight Power IEC Fusion Focus Fusion Dwave Systems Molecular Nanotech AGI

EmDrive

Blacklight Power

IEC Fusion

Focus Fusion

Dwave Systems

Molecular Nanotech

AGI

Space Solar Electric sail Vasimr SpaceX Virgin Galactic Lunar Concrete Fuel Depots Portable nuclear Telescopes

Solar Electric sail

Vasimr

SpaceX

Virgin Galactic

Lunar Concrete

Fuel Depots

Portable nuclear

Telescopes

Technology to Change the World is Hard What we think should be amazing may only effect a niche Need to have something that has good economics and rapidly scalable deployment Functionality for you personally Scaling for world impact Micro/Macro future Complete solutions Resist adoption because of world-view, self-image, image that others have, old way good enough etc…

What we think should be amazing may only effect a niche

Need to have something that has good economics and rapidly scalable deployment

Functionality for you personally

Scaling for world impact

Micro/Macro future

Complete solutions

Resist adoption because of world-view, self-image, image that others have, old way good enough etc…

You Get What You Pay For Vast waste is a problem (It is easy to piss away trillions and years on nothing) Individuals buying movies, books, toys will get better or more of the same Over one trillion spent on “space” but how much on actually flying stuff and how much on building infrastructure to make things cheaper or to have real space industry Assume we have to better plans, work to get it, find a way to improve odds of good result and faster results

Vast waste is a problem (It is easy to piss away trillions and years on nothing)

Individuals buying movies, books, toys will get better or more of the same

Over one trillion spent on “space” but how much on actually flying stuff and how much on building infrastructure to make things cheaper or to have real space industry

Assume we have to better plans, work to get it, find a way to improve odds of good result and faster results

Choices and Better Systems Anti-growth, anti-technology and anti-business, over-regulation and corruption can still slow development Even for greater than human intelligence – stupid and wrong are powerful opponents Beat the variable cost including the cost and effort to change out the old stuff

Anti-growth, anti-technology and anti-business, over-regulation and corruption can still slow development

Even for greater than human intelligence – stupid and wrong are powerful opponents

Beat the variable cost including the cost and effort to change out the old stuff

Revamping Manufacturing and Construction Contour Crafting Rapid Manufacturing and Prototyping Reel to Reel Production Business choices and processes and training, city zoning and policies, architects, construction industry

Contour Crafting

Rapid Manufacturing and Prototyping

Reel to Reel Production

Business choices and processes and training, city zoning and policies, architects, construction industry

Better Strategies for Dealing with Problems Energy CO2 and global warming Water Pollution Tougher construction – nails, better concrete, domes, future materials Robust Civilization – can’t let vulnerabilities and problems fester Get tough and spread out to space

Energy

CO2 and global warming

Water

Pollution

Tougher construction – nails, better concrete, domes, future materials

Robust Civilization – can’t let vulnerabilities and problems fester

Get tough and spread out to space

How Much ? 1. Economic abundance 2. Radical life extension 3. Physical and Cognitive enhancement 4. Automation, Robots, exoskeletons 5. Super-materials 6. Open Access to space 7. Pollution elimination 8. Computer/Intelligence Advancement 9. Towards programmable matter

1. Economic abundance 2. Radical life extension 3. Physical and Cognitive enhancement 4. Automation, Robots, exoskeletons 5. Super-materials 6. Open Access to space 7. Pollution elimination 8. Computer/Intelligence Advancement 9. Towards programmable matter

General Predictions 2009-2015 Perfecting of the now and old, prototype breakthroughs Billion super-iPhones Walking around Internet browsing, voice-text blogging Terascale with gigabit per second networking Power Harvesting from regenerative braking on human walking and thermoelectrics 2016-2025 New tech breaks out with big impact

2009-2015 Perfecting of the now and old, prototype breakthroughs

Billion super-iPhones

Walking around Internet browsing, voice-text blogging

Terascale with gigabit per second networking

Power Harvesting from regenerative braking on human walking and thermoelectrics

2016-2025 New tech breaks out with big impact

Convergence Scavenge energy from the body Efficient devices could always be on using 9-20W Functionalize the microbes of the body Engineered microbes could generate power or store power or could have compute capabilities

Scavenge energy from the body

Efficient devices could always be on using 9-20W

Functionalize the microbes of the body

Engineered microbes could generate power or store power or could have compute capabilities