Technology Developments for high impact future technology

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Technology Developments for high impact future technology - Presentation Transcript

  1. High Impact Technology Update By Brian Wang Nov 15, 2008
  2. Overview
    • Energy
      • Nuclear, Wind, Solar
    • Computers
      • Quantum Computers, Supercomputers, Optical
    • Nanotechnology
      • DNA Nano, Synthetic Bio, Mechanosynthesis, APM
    • Claytronics, Programmable Matter, Brain Emulation
    • Gene Therapy, Stem Cells, Transgenics, Synthetic Biology
    • Biomarkers, Medicine
    • Life Extension, Enhancement
    • Robotics, Communication, Cameras, Sensors
    • Space
    • Putting it all Together
      • Tech Controversy, Plans and Predictions
  3. Energy Tech
    • Nuclear Fission
      • Mass produced, Annular Fuel
    • Nuclear Fusion
    • Biofuels
    • Energy Efficiency
    • Wind – Kitegen
    • Solar –Concentrated solar
      • Coolearth, SunRGI, MIT
    • Blacklight Power
  4. World Energy
    • 26 Trillion to be spent on
    • energy infrastructure
    • 26 billion tons of CO2 going
    • to 40 billion tons in 2030
    • Unless changes are made
    • More economic growth and more wealth needs more energy and resources
    • $60 billion for California alone to get to 33% renewables (solar, wind, geothermal etc…)
  5. Mass Produced Deep Burn Nuclear Fission
    • Hyperion Power Generation
    • China’s High Temperature Reactor
    • AP1000 Factories
    • Fuji Molten Salt Reactor
    • Russian Breeder Reactor
    • Power Uprating, 80 year life [small ball baseball]
    • New build mainly in China, Russia, India, Brazil
    • 373 GW + 350 GW conventional + 150 GW 2025 + 60GW uprates
  6. Nuclear Fusion
    • Inertial Electrostatic Fusion
    • Focus Fusion
    • General Fusion
    • Colliding Beam Fusion
    • Laser Fusion
    • 80% on IEC and Colliding Beam 2014-2020
    • Tough to meaningfully scale for impact before 2025 but could start impact on space access
  7. Biofuels from Seaweed, Algae, Fungus, Weeds and Waste
    • Regular Crops
    • Seaweed (Japan, Indonesia)
    • Algae
    • Weeds
      • Jatropha (India)
      • Camelina (Canada)
    • Fungus
    • Waste (Coskata and others)
      • E10 blend wall
      • Biobutonal Bu16 (up to 22 billion gallons)
      • More E85 flex fuel and flex in general
      • 36 billion gallon US target 2022, 140 billion gallons US, 600 billion gallons worldwide
  8. More Efficient Engines and lighter vehicles
    • Diesel
      • ecomotors
    • Free Piston Engine
    • Reduce weight by 60% and improve fuel efficiency 30%
    • Hybrids and Electrics
    • Ultracapacitors
  9. Superconductors and Thermoelectrics
    • Industrial engines coming from South Korea
    • Smaller and more efficient
    • Actual deployment for electric grid
    • Prospects for room temperature superconductors
    • Thermoelectrics utilize waste heat. Better AC, refrigerators, up car efficiency 10-30% gain in overall efficiency of entire energy infrastructure
    • Capturing waste heat for aluminum and industrial processes would be big
  10. Faster Computers –Exaflops/Zettaflops
    • Tensilica
    • GPGPUs
    • Onchip Photonic Communication
    • All Digital Radios
    • Trigate/EUV/CNT FET
    • 3D stackable chips
    • New Memory
  11. Quantum Computers
    • Scaling up to thousands of qubits in 2009. 2007 was 16 qubits.
    • This qubit implemention not fully connected (may need to square the number of qubits)
    • What are the quantum algorithms?
    • How much better are the answers ? What are the answers without Ok approximations – Relates to AGI. We have better answers now that go unimplemented
    • Major impact would be faster molecular nanotech development from bigger and better quantum simulations
  12. Transformation Optics
    • Transformation optics is a field of optical and material engineering and science embracing nanophotonics, plasmonics, and optical metamaterials. The list of possible breakthroughs includes a cloak of invisibility; computers and consumer electronics that use light instead of electronic signals to process information [optical computers]; a "planar hyperlens" that could make optical microscopes 10 times more powerful and able to see objects as small as DNA; advanced sensors; and more efficient solar collectors.
  13. DNA Sequencing
    • $5000 for a genome available early 2009 (already announced)
    • $1000 or less 2009-2011
    • $100 or less 2011-2014
    • Over 99% of bacteria not identified (dirt, oceans, our bodies – does not grow in petri dish)
    • Faster and cheaper sequencing helps synthesis
    • Totally synthetic life: 582,000 BP
    • California Institute of Technology, led by biomolecular engineer Niles Pierce , has created a DNA-based fabricator.
  14. DNA Nanotechnology
    • Structural DNA (3D patterns)
      • DNA assembled one million 15nm gold nanoparticles
    • DNA optical wires
    • IBM: DNA make CNT grid
    • Building other stuff with DNA
    • DNA Nanotech device projects
      • Sensors, antennas, surgery
      • Turning cells into DNA nanotech factories (trillions of copies)
    • DNA robotic arms
    • DNA Sewing machine
  15. Atomically Precise Manufacturing and Mechanosynthesis
    • Zyvex APM
      • Perfect quantum dots (hundreds to millions)
      • Micro Automation
        • Parallel micro-assembly
      • Molecularly Precise Tools
      • Patterned Atomic Layer Epitaxy
        • Single atom layer with precise removals as needed before next layer
    • Philip Mortiarty funded
      • Verify Freitas and Merkle Mechanosynthesis
  16. Claytronics and Programmable Matter/Avogadro Computers
    • Intel’s and CMU Claytronics
    • MIT Avogradro Computing
  17. Brain Emulation
    • Brain emulation roadmap
    • Rat brain simulation using 30 teraflops
    • We have 1.3 petaflops sustained
    • Human scale level 4 emulation needs about 36 petaflops
  18. Materials – Carbon Nanotubes, Graphene, Diamond
    • Carbon Nanotubes
      • Meter long strands
      • Multi-thousand ton factories ~2012
    • Graphene
      • Strong
      • Higher volume production
    • Diamond
      • Kilocarats
    • 1.5 Billion tons of steel (2009)
    • 2.5 billion tons of concrete
      • carbon fiber 46,000 tons 2009  88,000 tons 2015
    • New states of matter
  19. Gene Therapy, Stem Cells, Transgenics, Synthetic Biology
    • Gene Therapy
      • All muscle cells in a dog
      • Could be used to transfer Aids/HIV immunity
    • Transgenics
      • Higher Food production
    • Stem Cells
    • Synthetic biology
  20. Biomarkers, cheap tests and real cures
    • Canary Foundation goal: early detection tests for solid tumor cancers by 2015
    • Effective early cancer tests could save over $50 billion (out of $89 billion) per year in medical costs and 400,000 lives each year in the USA and 5 million lives around the world. 7 million cancer deaths/yr worldwide.
    • Proven with pap smear ($8) and cervical cancer (70% reduction)
    • Other cheap blood and other biomarker test devices (other diseases and medical threats)
  21. Life Extension
    • Resveratrol, sirtuin
    • Telomerase
    • SENS project
  22. Human Enhancement
    • Immune System Enhancement
    • DARPA Work
    • Curing Obesity
    • Regeneration
    • Tissue Engineering from scaffolds
    • Brain Computer Interfaces
  23. Robotics, Prosthestics, Exoskeletons, UAVs, Robotic Cars
    • Needed for safe flying cars and to correct safety flaws of automobiles and fix transportation
    • Blood Stream Robots – pill to Bacteria size from several research groups and nanoparticles and macroparticles
    • Heartland Robotics – Rodney Brooks
      • I want to effect a powerful evolution in the world's labor markets, and my current focus is to develop low-cost robots that will empower American workers
  24. High Speed Communication
    • White space modems 100 Mbps
    • Wireless 1 Gbps +
    • Free space lasers
    • 60Ghz 5 Gbps Taiwan chip <$1
      • Better encoding go to 20 Gbps
    • Terabit optical internet
  25. Better Video, Still Cameras and Holograms
    • Red Camera Company
  26. Controversial Technology
    • EmDrive
    • Blacklight Power
    • IEC Fusion
    • Focus Fusion
    • Dwave Systems
    • Molecular Nanotech
    • AGI
  27. Space
    • Solar Electric sail
    • Vasimr
    • SpaceX
    • Virgin Galactic
    • Lunar Concrete
    • Fuel Depots
    • Portable nuclear
    • Telescopes
  28. Technology to Change the World is Hard
    • What we think should be amazing may only effect a niche
    • Need to have something that has good economics and rapidly scalable deployment
    • Functionality for you personally
    • Scaling for world impact
    • Micro/Macro future
    • Complete solutions
      • Resist adoption because of world-view, self-image, image that others have, old way good enough etc…
  29. You Get What You Pay For
    • Vast waste is a problem (It is easy to piss away trillions and years on nothing)
    • Individuals buying movies, books, toys will get better or more of the same
    • Over one trillion spent on “space” but how much on actually flying stuff and how much on building infrastructure to make things cheaper or to have real space industry
    • Assume we have to better plans, work to get it, find a way to improve odds of good result and faster results
  30. Choices and Better Systems
    • Anti-growth, anti-technology and anti-business, over-regulation and corruption can still slow development
    • Even for greater than human intelligence – stupid and wrong are powerful opponents
    • Beat the variable cost including the cost and effort to change out the old stuff
  31. Revamping Manufacturing and Construction
    • Contour Crafting
    • Rapid Manufacturing and Prototyping
    • Reel to Reel Production
    • Business choices and processes and training, city zoning and policies, architects, construction industry
  32. Better Strategies for Dealing with Problems
    • Energy
    • CO2 and global warming
    • Water
    • Pollution
    • Tougher construction – nails, better concrete, domes, future materials
    • Robust Civilization – can’t let vulnerabilities and problems fester
    • Get tough and spread out to space
  33. How Much ?
    • 1. Economic abundance 2. Radical life extension 3. Physical and Cognitive enhancement 4. Automation, Robots, exoskeletons 5. Super-materials 6. Open Access to space 7. Pollution elimination 8. Computer/Intelligence Advancement 9. Towards programmable matter
  34. General Predictions
    • 2009-2015 Perfecting of the now and old, prototype breakthroughs
      • Billion super-iPhones
        • Walking around Internet browsing, voice-text blogging
        • Terascale with gigabit per second networking
      • Power Harvesting from regenerative braking on human walking and thermoelectrics
    • 2016-2025 New tech breaks out with big impact
  35. Convergence
    • Scavenge energy from the body
    • Efficient devices could always be on using 9-20W
    • Functionalize the microbes of the body
      • Engineered microbes could generate power or store power or could have compute capabilities

+ nextbigfuturenextbigfuture, 2 years ago

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