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Technology Developments for high impact future technology
 

Technology Developments for high impact future technology

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  • Good slideshow, here is a link: http://tastethecloud.com/content/10-world-changing-technologies is a post that describes the 10 technologies MIT identified that will change the world, it has a little more substance than the original post floating around the net.
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    Technology Developments for high impact future technology Technology Developments for high impact future technology Presentation Transcript

    • High Impact Technology Update By Brian Wang Nov 15, 2008
    • Overview
      • Energy
        • Nuclear, Wind, Solar
      • Computers
        • Quantum Computers, Supercomputers, Optical
      • Nanotechnology
        • DNA Nano, Synthetic Bio, Mechanosynthesis, APM
      • Claytronics, Programmable Matter, Brain Emulation
      • Gene Therapy, Stem Cells, Transgenics, Synthetic Biology
      • Biomarkers, Medicine
      • Life Extension, Enhancement
      • Robotics, Communication, Cameras, Sensors
      • Space
      • Putting it all Together
        • Tech Controversy, Plans and Predictions
    • Energy Tech
      • Nuclear Fission
        • Mass produced, Annular Fuel
      • Nuclear Fusion
      • Biofuels
      • Energy Efficiency
      • Wind – Kitegen
      • Solar –Concentrated solar
        • Coolearth, SunRGI, MIT
      • Blacklight Power
    • World Energy
      • 26 Trillion to be spent on
      • energy infrastructure
      • 26 billion tons of CO2 going
      • to 40 billion tons in 2030
      • Unless changes are made
      • More economic growth and more wealth needs more energy and resources
      • $60 billion for California alone to get to 33% renewables (solar, wind, geothermal etc…)
    • Mass Produced Deep Burn Nuclear Fission
      • Hyperion Power Generation
      • China’s High Temperature Reactor
      • AP1000 Factories
      • Fuji Molten Salt Reactor
      • Russian Breeder Reactor
      • Power Uprating, 80 year life [small ball baseball]
      • New build mainly in China, Russia, India, Brazil
      • 373 GW + 350 GW conventional + 150 GW 2025 + 60GW uprates
    • Nuclear Fusion
      • Inertial Electrostatic Fusion
      • Focus Fusion
      • General Fusion
      • Colliding Beam Fusion
      • Laser Fusion
      • 80% on IEC and Colliding Beam 2014-2020
      • Tough to meaningfully scale for impact before 2025 but could start impact on space access
    • Biofuels from Seaweed, Algae, Fungus, Weeds and Waste
      • Regular Crops
      • Seaweed (Japan, Indonesia)
      • Algae
      • Weeds
        • Jatropha (India)
        • Camelina (Canada)
      • Fungus
      • Waste (Coskata and others)
        • E10 blend wall
        • Biobutonal Bu16 (up to 22 billion gallons)
        • More E85 flex fuel and flex in general
        • 36 billion gallon US target 2022, 140 billion gallons US, 600 billion gallons worldwide
    • More Efficient Engines and lighter vehicles
      • Diesel
        • ecomotors
      • Free Piston Engine
      • Reduce weight by 60% and improve fuel efficiency 30%
      • Hybrids and Electrics
      • Ultracapacitors
    • Superconductors and Thermoelectrics
      • Industrial engines coming from South Korea
      • Smaller and more efficient
      • Actual deployment for electric grid
      • Prospects for room temperature superconductors
      • Thermoelectrics utilize waste heat. Better AC, refrigerators, up car efficiency 10-30% gain in overall efficiency of entire energy infrastructure
      • Capturing waste heat for aluminum and industrial processes would be big
    • Faster Computers –Exaflops/Zettaflops
      • Tensilica
      • GPGPUs
      • Onchip Photonic Communication
      • All Digital Radios
      • Trigate/EUV/CNT FET
      • 3D stackable chips
      • New Memory
    • Quantum Computers
      • Scaling up to thousands of qubits in 2009. 2007 was 16 qubits.
      • This qubit implemention not fully connected (may need to square the number of qubits)
      • What are the quantum algorithms?
      • How much better are the answers ? What are the answers without Ok approximations – Relates to AGI. We have better answers now that go unimplemented
      • Major impact would be faster molecular nanotech development from bigger and better quantum simulations
    • Transformation Optics
      • Transformation optics is a field of optical and material engineering and science embracing nanophotonics, plasmonics, and optical metamaterials. The list of possible breakthroughs includes a cloak of invisibility; computers and consumer electronics that use light instead of electronic signals to process information [optical computers]; a "planar hyperlens" that could make optical microscopes 10 times more powerful and able to see objects as small as DNA; advanced sensors; and more efficient solar collectors.
    • DNA Sequencing
      • $5000 for a genome available early 2009 (already announced)
      • $1000 or less 2009-2011
      • $100 or less 2011-2014
      • Over 99% of bacteria not identified (dirt, oceans, our bodies – does not grow in petri dish)
      • Faster and cheaper sequencing helps synthesis
      • Totally synthetic life: 582,000 BP
      • California Institute of Technology, led by biomolecular engineer Niles Pierce , has created a DNA-based fabricator.
    • DNA Nanotechnology
      • Structural DNA (3D patterns)
        • DNA assembled one million 15nm gold nanoparticles
      • DNA optical wires
      • IBM: DNA make CNT grid
      • Building other stuff with DNA
      • DNA Nanotech device projects
        • Sensors, antennas, surgery
        • Turning cells into DNA nanotech factories (trillions of copies)
      • DNA robotic arms
      • DNA Sewing machine
    • Atomically Precise Manufacturing and Mechanosynthesis
      • Zyvex APM
        • Perfect quantum dots (hundreds to millions)
        • Micro Automation
          • Parallel micro-assembly
        • Molecularly Precise Tools
        • Patterned Atomic Layer Epitaxy
          • Single atom layer with precise removals as needed before next layer
      • Philip Mortiarty funded
        • Verify Freitas and Merkle Mechanosynthesis
    • Claytronics and Programmable Matter/Avogadro Computers
      • Intel’s and CMU Claytronics
      • MIT Avogradro Computing
    • Brain Emulation
      • Brain emulation roadmap
      • Rat brain simulation using 30 teraflops
      • We have 1.3 petaflops sustained
      • Human scale level 4 emulation needs about 36 petaflops
    • Materials – Carbon Nanotubes, Graphene, Diamond
      • Carbon Nanotubes
        • Meter long strands
        • Multi-thousand ton factories ~2012
      • Graphene
        • Strong
        • Higher volume production
      • Diamond
        • Kilocarats
      • 1.5 Billion tons of steel (2009)
      • 2.5 billion tons of concrete
        • carbon fiber 46,000 tons 2009  88,000 tons 2015
      • New states of matter
    • Gene Therapy, Stem Cells, Transgenics, Synthetic Biology
      • Gene Therapy
        • All muscle cells in a dog
        • Could be used to transfer Aids/HIV immunity
      • Transgenics
        • Higher Food production
      • Stem Cells
      • Synthetic biology
    • Biomarkers, cheap tests and real cures
      • Canary Foundation goal: early detection tests for solid tumor cancers by 2015
      • Effective early cancer tests could save over $50 billion (out of $89 billion) per year in medical costs and 400,000 lives each year in the USA and 5 million lives around the world. 7 million cancer deaths/yr worldwide.
      • Proven with pap smear ($8) and cervical cancer (70% reduction)
      • Other cheap blood and other biomarker test devices (other diseases and medical threats)
    • Life Extension
      • Resveratrol, sirtuin
      • Telomerase
      • SENS project
    • Human Enhancement
      • Immune System Enhancement
      • DARPA Work
      • Curing Obesity
      • Regeneration
      • Tissue Engineering from scaffolds
      • Brain Computer Interfaces
    • Robotics, Prosthestics, Exoskeletons, UAVs, Robotic Cars
      • Needed for safe flying cars and to correct safety flaws of automobiles and fix transportation
      • Blood Stream Robots – pill to Bacteria size from several research groups and nanoparticles and macroparticles
      • Heartland Robotics – Rodney Brooks
        • I want to effect a powerful evolution in the world's labor markets, and my current focus is to develop low-cost robots that will empower American workers
    • High Speed Communication
      • White space modems 100 Mbps
      • Wireless 1 Gbps +
      • Free space lasers
      • 60Ghz 5 Gbps Taiwan chip <$1
        • Better encoding go to 20 Gbps
      • Terabit optical internet
    • Better Video, Still Cameras and Holograms
      • Red Camera Company
    • Controversial Technology
      • EmDrive
      • Blacklight Power
      • IEC Fusion
      • Focus Fusion
      • Dwave Systems
      • Molecular Nanotech
      • AGI
    • Space
      • Solar Electric sail
      • Vasimr
      • SpaceX
      • Virgin Galactic
      • Lunar Concrete
      • Fuel Depots
      • Portable nuclear
      • Telescopes
    • Technology to Change the World is Hard
      • What we think should be amazing may only effect a niche
      • Need to have something that has good economics and rapidly scalable deployment
      • Functionality for you personally
      • Scaling for world impact
      • Micro/Macro future
      • Complete solutions
        • Resist adoption because of world-view, self-image, image that others have, old way good enough etc…
    • You Get What You Pay For
      • Vast waste is a problem (It is easy to piss away trillions and years on nothing)
      • Individuals buying movies, books, toys will get better or more of the same
      • Over one trillion spent on “space” but how much on actually flying stuff and how much on building infrastructure to make things cheaper or to have real space industry
      • Assume we have to better plans, work to get it, find a way to improve odds of good result and faster results
    • Choices and Better Systems
      • Anti-growth, anti-technology and anti-business, over-regulation and corruption can still slow development
      • Even for greater than human intelligence – stupid and wrong are powerful opponents
      • Beat the variable cost including the cost and effort to change out the old stuff
    • Revamping Manufacturing and Construction
      • Contour Crafting
      • Rapid Manufacturing and Prototyping
      • Reel to Reel Production
      • Business choices and processes and training, city zoning and policies, architects, construction industry
    • Better Strategies for Dealing with Problems
      • Energy
      • CO2 and global warming
      • Water
      • Pollution
      • Tougher construction – nails, better concrete, domes, future materials
      • Robust Civilization – can’t let vulnerabilities and problems fester
      • Get tough and spread out to space
    • How Much ?
      • 1. Economic abundance 2. Radical life extension 3. Physical and Cognitive enhancement 4. Automation, Robots, exoskeletons 5. Super-materials 6. Open Access to space 7. Pollution elimination 8. Computer/Intelligence Advancement 9. Towards programmable matter
    • General Predictions
      • 2009-2015 Perfecting of the now and old, prototype breakthroughs
        • Billion super-iPhones
          • Walking around Internet browsing, voice-text blogging
          • Terascale with gigabit per second networking
        • Power Harvesting from regenerative braking on human walking and thermoelectrics
      • 2016-2025 New tech breaks out with big impact
    • Convergence
      • Scavenge energy from the body
      • Efficient devices could always be on using 9-20W
      • Functionalize the microbes of the body
        • Engineered microbes could generate power or store power or could have compute capabilities