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Presentation by Kate Cooper on 1st December 2012 at the workshop "Creating stories from the future: Food futures for Birmingham 2050"

Presentation by Kate Cooper on 1st December 2012 at the workshop "Creating stories from the future: Food futures for Birmingham 2050"

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  • What if . . . we have a summer like this last one? \n
  • What if . . . we have a summer like this last one? \n
  • What if . . . we have a summer like this last one? \n
  • What if . . . we have a summer like this last one? \n
  • \nnote if need be: West Midlands as a whole is 13km2 (1.3M hectares). Its population is 5.5M. Population density is people per km2 (4.23 people per hectare).\n
  • \nnote if need be: West Midlands as a whole is 13km2 (1.3M hectares). Its population is 5.5M. Population density is people per km2 (4.23 people per hectare).\n
  • \nnote if need be: West Midlands as a whole is 13km2 (1.3M hectares). Its population is 5.5M. Population density is people per km2 (4.23 people per hectare).\n
  • \nnote if need be: West Midlands as a whole is 13km2 (1.3M hectares). Its population is 5.5M. Population density is people per km2 (4.23 people per hectare).\n
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  • This is land farmed by my in-laws, Mick and Pat - and this image is what their highly fertile, intensely farmed land looks like. They grow wheat, sugar beet, rape seed and spuds, sometime onions, daffodils\n\nWhat if . . . their crops fail? What’s the impact on us?\n\nWhat if . . . they decided to eat locally produced food?\n\nNote: In Grandad’s time, farmers there weren’t wealthy, quite a lot was subsistence farming, plus produce to placess like Leicester and Peterborough. \n\nThe War changed things, including lots of land girls drafted into the area to do the labour.\n\nIt was labour-intensive until combine harvesters. Around 1980, I saw a potato harvester for the first time, doing the rounds of the local farms. One man, a great big machine and large fields of spuds from ground to branded bag in a few hours.\n
  • This is land farmed by my in-laws, Mick and Pat - and this image is what their highly fertile, intensely farmed land looks like. They grow wheat, sugar beet, rape seed and spuds, sometime onions, daffodils\n\nWhat if . . . their crops fail? What’s the impact on us?\n\nWhat if . . . they decided to eat locally produced food?\n\nNote: In Grandad’s time, farmers there weren’t wealthy, quite a lot was subsistence farming, plus produce to placess like Leicester and Peterborough. \n\nThe War changed things, including lots of land girls drafted into the area to do the labour.\n\nIt was labour-intensive until combine harvesters. Around 1980, I saw a potato harvester for the first time, doing the rounds of the local farms. One man, a great big machine and large fields of spuds from ground to branded bag in a few hours.\n
  • This is land farmed by my in-laws, Mick and Pat - and this image is what their highly fertile, intensely farmed land looks like. They grow wheat, sugar beet, rape seed and spuds, sometime onions, daffodils\n\nWhat if . . . their crops fail? What’s the impact on us?\n\nWhat if . . . they decided to eat locally produced food?\n\nNote: In Grandad’s time, farmers there weren’t wealthy, quite a lot was subsistence farming, plus produce to placess like Leicester and Peterborough. \n\nThe War changed things, including lots of land girls drafted into the area to do the labour.\n\nIt was labour-intensive until combine harvesters. Around 1980, I saw a potato harvester for the first time, doing the rounds of the local farms. One man, a great big machine and large fields of spuds from ground to branded bag in a few hours.\n
  • This is land farmed by my in-laws, Mick and Pat - and this image is what their highly fertile, intensely farmed land looks like. They grow wheat, sugar beet, rape seed and spuds, sometime onions, daffodils\n\nWhat if . . . their crops fail? What’s the impact on us?\n\nWhat if . . . they decided to eat locally produced food?\n\nNote: In Grandad’s time, farmers there weren’t wealthy, quite a lot was subsistence farming, plus produce to placess like Leicester and Peterborough. \n\nThe War changed things, including lots of land girls drafted into the area to do the labour.\n\nIt was labour-intensive until combine harvesters. Around 1980, I saw a potato harvester for the first time, doing the rounds of the local farms. One man, a great big machine and large fields of spuds from ground to branded bag in a few hours.\n
  • This is land farmed by my in-laws, Mick and Pat - and this image is what their highly fertile, intensely farmed land looks like. They grow wheat, sugar beet, rape seed and spuds, sometime onions, daffodils\n\nWhat if . . . their crops fail? What’s the impact on us?\n\nWhat if . . . they decided to eat locally produced food?\n\nNote: In Grandad’s time, farmers there weren’t wealthy, quite a lot was subsistence farming, plus produce to placess like Leicester and Peterborough. \n\nThe War changed things, including lots of land girls drafted into the area to do the labour.\n\nIt was labour-intensive until combine harvesters. Around 1980, I saw a potato harvester for the first time, doing the rounds of the local farms. One man, a great big machine and large fields of spuds from ground to branded bag in a few hours.\n
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TNO-BLF_ Feeding_birmingham Presentation Transcript

  • 1. what it takes to feed this citythe newoptimists forum #TNOfood
  • 2. feeding this city: what’s needed?
  • 3. feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does an individual need?
  • 4. feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does an individual need?
  • 5. feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does Birmingham need?
  • 6. feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does Birmingham need?
  • 7. feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does Birmingham need?now think London, Tokyo, New York, Sao Paulo, Seoul, Mexico City, Osaka, Manila, Mumbai, Delhi, Jakarta, Lagos, Kolkata, Cairo, Los Angeles . . . 9bn in 2050
  • 8. feeding this city: with food grown where?
  • 9. feeding this city: with food grown where?Let’s assume a hectare of highly fertile, intensively farmedland can support 10 people . . .
  • 10. feeding this city: with food grown where?Let’s assume a hectare of highly fertile, intensively farmedland can support 10 people . . . United Nations FAO actual figures: ✓1960: average hectare of arable land supported 2.4 people ✓2005: average hectare of arable land supported 4.5 people
  • 11. feeding this city: with food grown where?Let’s assume a hectare of highly fertile, intensively farmedland can support 10 people . . . United Nations FAO actual figures: ✓1960: average hectare of arable land supported 2.4 people ✓2005: average hectare of arable land supported 4.5 people . . . and explore where it doesn’t come from
  • 12. feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre
  • 13. feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre
  • 14. feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre
  • 15. feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre The yellow square represents 4 hectares. i.e. were it highly fertile & intensively farmed, it could support 40 people at most.
  • 16. feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre The yellow square represents 4 hectares. i.e. were it highly fertile & intensively farmed, it could support 40 people at most. 160,000+ commuters travel daily to the city centre
  • 17. feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road
  • 18. feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road
  • 19. feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road
  • 20. feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road The yellow square represents one hectare. Uplands Allotments are on ~15 hectares.
  • 21. feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road The yellow square represents one hectare. Uplands Allotments are on ~15 hectares. The city has 200 hectares of allotments, plus 3.2K ha of parks and open spaces.
  • 22. feeding this city: nor here . . .
  • 23. feeding this city: nor here . . .The WM conurbation
  • 24. feeding this city: nor here . . .The WM conurbation from Portrait of the West Midlands Angela Medland, ONS
  • 25. feeding this city: nor here . . .The WM conurbationpopulation density ≈30 people on a rugbypitchWest Midlands conurbation: Population: 2.3MPopulation density: 3,808 km2(38.08 per hectare)Birmingham’s population: 1MPopulation density: 3872 people/km2(38.72 per hectare)plus their housing & from Portrait of the West Midlands Angela Medland, ONS
  • 26. feeding this city: locally grown food?
  • 27. feeding this city: locally grown food?What difference does eating locally grown food make?
  • 28. feeding this city: locally grown food?What difference does eating locally grown food make? foodmatters.org estimate that Brighton & Hove’s urban agriculture (incl allotments, gardens, parks, etc) supplies 0.14% of its needs
  • 29. feeding this city: locally grown food?What difference does eating locally grown food make? foodmatters.org estimate that Brighton & Hove’s urban agriculture (incl allotments, gardens, parks, etc) supplies 0.14% of its needs CPRE (2012) From field to fork:The values of England’s local food webs estimate the potential for consumers across the UK to eat ‘locally’ grown food would be 2% max of our spend
  • 30. feeding this city: food from where?
  • 31. feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . .
  • 32. feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . .
  • 33. feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . .
  • 34. feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . . 5M ha of agricultural land in the UK is used for crops Cereals make up ~80% of this proteins and sugar beet 13% horticulture 4% potatoes 3% The UK imports ~40% of its food (cf 70% in 1939) Source: Defra 2012
  • 35. feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . . 5M ha of agricultural land in the UK is used for crops Cereals make up ~80% of this proteins and sugar beet 13% horticulture 4% potatoes 3% The UK imports ~40% of its food (cf 70% in 1939) Source: Defra 2012 a thought experiment . . . this Wisbech farmer decides to grow & eat all the family’s food
  • 36. demographics & the health of the population
  • 37. demographics & the health of the population
  • 38. demographics & the health of the population
  • 39. demographics & the health of the population37% of the UK population (26M)will be over 60 by 2050 — that’syou lot!only 13M will be children . . .
  • 40. local food growing: growingbirmingham.org
  • 41. local food growing: growingbirmingham.orgwhy bother?
  • 42. local food growing: growingbirmingham.orgwhy bother? social & civic: conviviality . . . it’s fun . . . relatively easy . . . kids love it . . . makes the city look great . . . it’s social glue meeting obesity & other health issues: ‘magic’ happens when communities have food growing in their midst . . . a good day’s work: labour intensive . . . and horticulture is an inherently optimistic activity, often highly sociable . . . a lifetime’s activity where expertise is gifted from one to another & there are career opportunities at all levels decarbonisation: city communities using their waste to fuel their energy . . . & (maybe) growing biomass on contaminated land
  • 43. local food growing: growingbirmingham.org AND very, very very fresh fruit & veg tastes absolutely fantastic!
  • 44. power: distributed energy? decarbonisation: city communities using their waste to fuel their energy . . . & (maybe) growing biomass on contaminated land
  • 45. mass transit: getting people & goods about ?
  • 46. IMAGINE the UK in economic decline plus high global food prices & high global energy prices . . .this world what’s past is prologue: what to come in 2050: in yours and my discharge DIAGRAM: what it takes to feed Birmingham The Tempest Act 2 scene I BIRMINGHAM SUSTAINABILITY FORUM: feeding the city eating as “social glue” protein shortages being smarter about using food: buying less, eating less, wasting lessWill the lights go out? & Birmingham is where diet & health for individuals . . . distributed energy systems:potential to supply 10-50% of the [happy] children eat [well] the health of the whole£2.6bn we use now population . . . and regeneration or game-changer? its impact on social & civic ➡ community ownership? infrastructure ➡ waste-energy nexus? ➡ exportable social and engineering urban agriculture technologies? urban horticulture . . . why bother? mass transit systems the psychology of time, travel & the new intelligent design optimists forum ASSUME this world in 2050: Earth a min 2-4oC warmer + resource depletion + 9 billion people
  • 47. food security: useful info & links ➡Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 billion people Godfray, Beddington et al. Science, Volume 327. 12 February 2010 ➡ Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming. 2011 Final Report Government Office for Science ➡ Green Food Project — Conclusions DEFRA 2012 ➡ Securing Future Food Supplies to 2050: Government Response to the Committee’s 4th Report of the Session 2008-09 House of Commons Environment, Food & Rural Affairs ➡ foodsecurity.ac.uk (Tim Benton, Leeds University. UK champion for global food security) ➡ fooddeserts.org (Hillary Shaw, Harper Adams) also ➡ Portrait of the West Midlands Alison Medland, ONS 2011
  • 48. the new optimists forum www.newoptimists.com @newoptimistsour thanks to the following organisations for their kind support