“Il nucleare per l’economia, l’ambiente e lo sviluppo”
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“Il nucleare per l’economia, l’ambiente e lo sviluppo”

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Alcuni scenari di studio per comprendere i possibili impatti ambientali, occupazionali e di sicurezza energetica derivanti dalla costruzione e dalla conseguente messa in esercizio di nuove centrali ...

Alcuni scenari di studio per comprendere i possibili impatti ambientali, occupazionali e di sicurezza energetica derivanti dalla costruzione e dalla conseguente messa in esercizio di nuove centrali nucleari nel nostro paese, come previsto dal Governo attraverso la “Legge Sviluppo” del 2009.

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“Il nucleare per l’economia, l’ambiente e lo sviluppo” “Il nucleare per l’economia, l’ambiente e lo sviluppo” Presentation Transcript

  • Results of the studyNuclear power for the economy,environment and development“An opportunity to give Italy new energy”
  • Steering Committee
    xx
    FatihBirol
    Chief Economist, International Energy Agency
    Gianluca Comin
    Director of External Relations, Enel
    Bruno D’Onghia
    General Manager – Italy, EDF
    Sergio Garribba
    Member of the Board of Energy Policies, Ministry for Economic Development
    Maurizio Lupi
    Vice President, Italian Chamber of Deputies
    Carlo Rossella
    Journalist and Chairman, Medusa Film
    Nicola Rossi
    Professor of Political Economics, University of Rome Tor Vergata
    Umberto Veronesi
    Scientific Director, European Institute of Oncology
  • The world will demand more and more energy
    TWh
    Global electricity demand
    + 326%
    Source: World Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Scenario, IEA
  • “3+1” key objectives to be achieved
    Security of the supplies obtained
    Economic sustainability (stable low prices)
    Environmental sustainability
    +
    Reduction of dependency on fossilfuel sources
    (in the medium-long term)
  • Will this mean a nuclear renaissance?
    438 operating nuclear reactorsin 2010 (52 in 1966)
    61 under construction and 149 planned reactors
    LEGEND (MW)
    x ≤ 2000
    2001 ≤ x ≥ 10000
    10001 ≤ x ≥ 30000
    30001 ≤ x ≥ 60000
    60001 ≤ x ≥ 80000
    x ≥ 80001
    Source: The EuropeanHouse-Ambrosetti on international database
  • Nuclear power: lower CO2 emissions
    g/KWh
    Source: IAEA
  • Nuclearpower: lowergeneratingcosts
    Source: IEA, Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, 2010
  • Energy sustainability challenge for Italy
    Primary energy: 86%dependency on foreign countries
    (EU average: 53%)
    Annual electricity consumption: 14%imported
    (one of the world top 5 importer)
    Production of electricity: >65% from gas, oil and their by-products (EU average: 27%)
    Electricity price: +25-35% vs. EU average (and high volatility)
    Source: The European House-Ambrosetti on AEEG, Eurostat, European Commission and Terna data
  • Electricity demand trend in Italy
    439 TWhin 2030*
    (+ 36% since 2010)
    TWh
    Source: The EuropeanHouse-Ambrosetti
    (*) Hypothetical scenarios and studies (not
    forecasts); they includes hypotheses on energy efficiency measures
  • 3 possible electricity generation study mixes for 2030*
    (110 TWh)
    (155 TWh)
    (100 TWh)
    (110 TWh)
    (297 TWh)
    (252 TWh)
    (197 TWh)
    Source: The EuropeanHouse-Ambrosetti
    (*) Non previsional study scenarios complying with EU “Climate and Energy Package” and with Italian Government “National Action Plan for Renewable Energy Sources”
  • Electricity generation 2020-2030 with nuclear power
    Bln €
    Lower Cost (Bln €) of Integration Scenario
    -51 vs. Reference
    -69 vs. Alternative
    Reduced CO2 emission (Mton) of Integration Sc.
    -381 vs. Reference
    -236 vs. Alternative
    563
    545
    494
    Source: The EuropeanHouse-Ambrosetti
  • Additional benefits of nuclear power in Italy (1)
    National Industry Development
    One nuclear unit*:
    2/3 Bln € potential orders for Italian industry(3/4 Bln € with new competences)
    >10.000 jobs (highly specialized)**
    (9,000 construction; 1,200 operation; 150 decommissioning)
    +
    National nuclear program as a “launching pad” for the wider global market (value 400/500 Bln €)
    Source: The European House-Ambrosetti, Politecnico di Milano
    (*) III generation nuclear reactor operating in Europe
    (**) Direct, indirect, related
  • Additional benefits of nuclear power in Italy (2)
    Enhancement of country’s competitiveness
    Reduction and stabilization of electricity costs and prices
    Improvement and integration of the national energy supply chain, with positive impacts on energy users
    Improvement of country’s competences and human capital
    Overall impacts on the economic system:
    +4.5-11 Bln €/year for greater overall production
    +38-81 thousand man-years
    Source: The European House-Ambrosetti, CERTeTBocconi
  • Additional benefits of nuclear power in Italy (3)
    Enhancement of geopolitical positioning
    Reduction of political risk for current energy dependency
    Possibility of increasing participation in the construction of global governance in the near future
    Possibility of reinforcing international cooperation (especially on the southern side of the Mediterranean)
    Possibility of participating in multilateral working groups to control nuclear proliferation
    Source: The European House-Ambrosetti, V. E. Parsi
  • Concluding Remarks
    Nuclear energy is experiencing a globalgrowth, as it is a safe technology, with lower generation costs and CO2 emissions
    “Return to nuclear” can provide considerable benefits for Italy: energy sustainability and as a driver for development
    The nuclear program is an opportunity for Italy, but it has to be a shared choice of the country