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John Waclawsky Ph. D.  Services Architecture and Governance Motorola, Inc. From: Heavily  Centralized  Control Paradigms  ...
Agenda   <ul><li>Commonality vs. Competition </li></ul><ul><li>Some Innovation Chemistry  </li></ul><ul><li>Chemistry Migr...
Competition and Commonality  Standards  vs. De facto <ul><li>A Key Standards Perspective: </li></ul><ul><li>Common mechani...
Competition and Commonality  (continued)   Standards vs.  De facto Applications drive technology usage, not the selection ...
Where is Innovation Thriving? …and what is driving it, …as if we didn’t know! … a part of the Four Area Innovation Model C...
L1 - Physical L2 - Data Link L3 - Network  L4 - Transport  L5 - Session L6 - Presentation L7 - Applications The  OSI Model...
Restricted Competition Open Competition Telco / Cable co  TITAN s Internet Technology  TITAN s 1- System-Based  2 – Connec...
RESULTS: Innovation Movement: Mostly “FROM” the Internet   GSM/GPRS L1 - Physical L2 - Data Link L3 - Network  L4 - Transp...
Innovation Migration Lessons   Internet is willing to eat its own children as well as the children of others. It isn’t app...
L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion 1- System-Based  Networking ...
Early / Obvious Model Conclusions   <ul><li>Everyone needs the bottom four layers of the OSI model The split is over how t...
L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L...
Restricted Competition L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Open Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L...
L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Comp...
L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L...
P2P  (edge to edge)   Anyone can  offer a service  to anyone else! <ul><li>Mainly Involves: </li></ul><ul><li>Sharing of r...
L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L...
L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L...
L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Comp...
Cable TV Internet Digital Rabbit ears CDMA TV/Radio GSM/GPRS Satellite TV  UWB WiMAX UMTS 802.20 Etc. NFC What could STB’s...
L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Comp...
Network Coding   <ul><li>Network coding is a field of information theory and coding theory and is a method of attaining ma...
L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Comp...
QoS   How can QoS work today and in the future?   ….when you consider…   <ul><li>Emerging future:  overlay techniques (P2P...
L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Comp...
At the Heart of the thing known as “The Internet” <ul><li>It’s an environment that  fosters experimentation </li></ul><ul>...
A Major Challenge for the Restricted eco-system Technology….   How can any technology which relies on extensive core netwo...
Reality Summary  <ul><li>Early, half-baked is rewarded better  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>striving for perfect is the enemy of ...
Conclusions   <ul><li>Which Titan is winning?? </li></ul><ul><li>Restricted vs. Open – this debate is still being waged on...
Advice  ….Some Thoughts <ul><li>It is about winning….. </li></ul><ul><li>You should ask for: …the serenity to accept the t...
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  • © 2003 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. This presentation is for informational purposes only. Microsoft makes no warranties, express or implied, in this summary. MGB 2003
  • © 2003 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. This presentation is for informational purposes only. Microsoft makes no warranties, express or implied, in this summary. MGB 2003
  • © 2003 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. This presentation is for informational purposes only. Microsoft makes no warranties, express or implied, in this summary. MGB 2003
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    1. 1. John Waclawsky Ph. D. Services Architecture and Governance Motorola, Inc. From: Heavily Centralized Control Paradigms To: An Increasing Decentralized World via Internet and Web Technology Titan against Titan: What Technology will Win?
    2. 2. Agenda <ul><li>Commonality vs. Competition </li></ul><ul><li>Some Innovation Chemistry </li></ul><ul><li>Chemistry Migration Lessons </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Eco-systems Model and Area of Common Benefit </li></ul><ul><li>Goals and Results </li></ul><ul><li>Technology Comparisons </li></ul><ul><li>Some Challenges …Always Something New! </li></ul><ul><li>Lessons Learned </li></ul>
    3. 3. Competition and Commonality Standards vs. De facto <ul><li>A Key Standards Perspective: </li></ul><ul><li>Common mechanisms are good …for applications too? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Some applications can leverage standards …billing etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Belief: Common control into the application space will facilitate interoperability, easier application creation, more application utility and numerous new applications will emerge by extending commonality. This is a common perspective of IMS/SIP advocates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>BUT: has IMS/SIP led to any new applications? </li></ul></ul></ul>“ differentiation IS the game”. ... G eoffrey Moore ISO ETSI IETF 3GPP W3C
    4. 4. Competition and Commonality (continued) Standards vs. De facto Applications drive technology usage, not the selection of some common protocol or standard . Smell Test : Will competition stop? … a single solution /application / signaling / control / format / data protocol, or any other common way to serve customers in a non-competitive manner… <ul><li>de facto: Un-commonality is standard for applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Standards typically commoditize products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>tend to make products and services look more or less alike </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Standards may be giving competitors some control or even veto power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Applications don't want to “talk” to each other for business reasons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovators always look beyond standards for ways to lead </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. Where is Innovation Thriving? …and what is driving it, …as if we didn’t know! … a part of the Four Area Innovation Model Consider the extended OSI model as “semi-permeable membrane for innovation molecules”!
    6. 6. L1 - Physical L2 - Data Link L3 - Network L4 - Transport L5 - Session L6 - Presentation L7 - Applications The OSI Model Semi-permeable membrane <ul><li>Model extended because: </li></ul><ul><li>Accelerating technology changes </li></ul><ul><li>Disruptions and redefinition </li></ul><ul><li>Relentless on-going innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Business decisions are colored by: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Politics/Ideology, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Financial considerations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology religion (driven aspects of a company’s or even an individual’s personality). </li></ul></ul>L8 - Revenue and Profit L9 - Politics L10 - Technology Religion The upper three layers are mainly about competitive issues “ extended”
    7. 7. Restricted Competition Open Competition Telco / Cable co TITAN s Internet Technology TITAN s 1- System-Based 2 – Connectivity Innovation 4 – Connectivity Innovation 3 – Component-Based L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5
    8. 8. RESULTS: Innovation Movement: Mostly “FROM” the Internet GSM/GPRS L1 - Physical L2 - Data Link L3 - Network L4 - Transport L5 - Session L6 - Presentation L7 - Applications L8 - Finance L9 - Politics L10 - Religion Restricted Competition Environment: Telco/Cableco Open Internet Environment OSI ISDN ATM, DSL DWDM, EDFA Layering X.25 SIP-3GPP ? } IM, eMail VoIP Ethernet IP TCP/UDP Web Network Management SIP-IETF SMS PARLAY Parlay-X } CAMEL/IN
    9. 9. Innovation Migration Lessons Internet is willing to eat its own children as well as the children of others. It isn’t apparent that any telco/cableco’s innovations are eating any Internet children. GSM/GPRS IM, eMail VoIP L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Ethernet IP TCP/UDP Web } OSI ISDN ATM, DSL DWDM, EDFA SMS Layering Network Management X.25 SIP-3GPP ? SIP-IETF WiMAX <ul><li>Telco/Cable co's physical connectivity </li></ul><ul><li>Internet services </li></ul><ul><li>Upper layers: highlight the Telco/Cable co struggle at services. </li></ul><ul><li>Lower Layers: Telecom industry innovation has been centered on basic transmission technologies (e.g., DWDM, EDFA, DSL, GSM) </li></ul><ul><li>Sometimes innovation stays within an eco-system and can be quite successful within it: SMS (what about IM), SIP (what about non-SIP) </li></ul><ul><li>Things change over time. </li></ul><ul><li>E-mail -> AOL -> Gmail </li></ul>LTE
    10. 10. L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion 1- System-Based Networking Protocol Layers L5 Internet Technology is becoming increasingly important to the “restrictive competition environment” by providing access to and interacting with the incredible number of web destinations Benefit by following Benefit by leading Benefit by following Benefit by following Area of Common Benefit! (although unrecognized by some) IP, TCP, Web…etc
    11. 11. Early / Obvious Model Conclusions <ul><li>Everyone needs the bottom four layers of the OSI model The split is over how to exploit the top of the extended OSI model </li></ul><ul><li>Incentive to follow successful lower layer standards and, as a result, allow network-connected products and services to enjoy access to the widest audience </li></ul><ul><li>Create new standards to extend connectivity when new technologies emerge or provide ways to better leverage the internet, such as WiMAX </li></ul>“ connectivity is its own reward” was often echoed by the early Internet participants, and is embodied in Metcalfe’s law
    12. 12. L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5 <ul><li>GOALS: </li></ul><ul><li>Standardize basic building blocks of communication, NOT application behavior or control of end users . </li></ul><ul><li>Everyone to benefits from connectivity. </li></ul><ul><li>RESULTS: </li></ul><ul><li>Experimentation for new applications, services and technology exploded </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation breeding ground spawning numerous high-market capitalization companies: Amazon, Google, eBay… </li></ul><ul><li>Enormous wealth engine - February 6th 2006 SIP Forum [1] presentation that concluded “ The Internet is responsible for the largest creation of shareholder value in the shortest time in history.” [1] http://www.sipforum.com/ </li></ul><ul><li>GOALS: </li></ul><ul><li>Standardizing communications including: </li></ul><ul><li>Interoperability between applications in their respective vertical markets, </li></ul><ul><li>Centralized design for end-user control </li></ul><ul><li>Total control of application behavior . </li></ul><ul><li>RESULTS: </li></ul><ul><li>Meeting goals rooted in existing thinking about networking </li></ul><ul><li>A highly-controlled, but much-reduced experimentation environment </li></ul><ul><li>Depressed innovation activity </li></ul><ul><li>From our innovation migration lessons, it is becoming more apparent the trend is that the Internet is the source of innovation </li></ul>
    13. 13. Restricted Competition L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Open Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5 Area of Common Benefit The standardized lower levels have also helped solve the bootstrap problem for innovators. These layers facilitate the spread of new, unconventional products and services at the higher layers of the protocol stack. Via existing standardized lower networking layers, anyone can now download and install the software needed to use such new innovations driving concepts such as social networking. That's a key reason new innovations can reach critical mass so quickly. Moving this way? Benefit by following Benefit by leading Benefit by following Benefit by following A recent example is SIP IMS BitTorrent XMPP Skype Gnutella Defacto Joost Will SIP cross-over? IMS possibilities?
    14. 14. L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Networking Protocol Layers L5 <ul><li>System technologies about control : </li></ul><ul><li>IMS </li></ul><ul><li>Quality of Service (QoS) </li></ul><ul><li>Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) </li></ul><ul><li>RST Injection for TCP protocol </li></ul><ul><li>Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) </li></ul><ul><li>Digital Rights Management (DRM) </li></ul><ul><li>Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers . </li></ul><ul><li>Consider an evolution about relationships </li></ul><ul><li>Mashup’s </li></ul><ul><li>P2P </li></ul><ul><li>Encryption </li></ul><ul><li>People technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Organizing content: Tags </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cloud computing (XMPP) </li></ul><ul><li>Traffic Scattering </li></ul><ul><li>Network coding </li></ul><ul><li>Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many are “ perceived” to provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system . </li></ul><ul><li>Other related issues: </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure costs! </li></ul><ul><li>Privacy concerns! </li></ul><ul><li>Missing services/functions? </li></ul>Mashup’s P2P
    15. 15. L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5 Application vs. No Application Is thinking about applications passé? Centralized: delivered and controlled by a server Distributed: Built on demand, distributed and controlled by the end user devices Is current core network controlled thinking about applications becoming obsolete? e.g. IMS and SIP technologies are designed around an application infrastructure supporting paradigm Mashup’s and P2P technologies
    16. 16. P2P (edge to edge) Anyone can offer a service to anyone else! <ul><li>Mainly Involves: </li></ul><ul><li>Sharing of resources by direct exchange (NO man in the middle!), </li></ul><ul><li>Ability to self organize (NO control from the middle!), </li></ul><ul><li>Deal with intermittent connectivity (NO state maintained or master data base in the middle!), </li></ul>… of the peers, for the peers, by the peers
    17. 17. L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5 Control: of What? …and How? Centralized: IMS and SIP Distributed: P2P and IM We are moving from an early technology world where we had to talk to machines in their language to an emerging world where machines will talk to us in our language Will IM be the future control paradigm? If so? …should we run language parsers underneath?
    18. 18. L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5 Another Example: Circuit Voice vs. VoIP What about Lawful Interception (LI)? <ul><li>Centralized: Circuit Switched network is easy </li></ul><ul><li>Data network: Session Border Controller (SBC)* as the point of convergence for VoIP packets. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Implementing LI on SBC is the VoIP equivalent of wire tapping on a circuit switched network. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>*SBC is typically a VoIP session aware device that governs the manner in which VoIP calls are initiated, conducted and terminated in a network. </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed: VoIP </li></ul><ul><li>IP provides numerous methods to ensure data security. </li></ul><ul><li>no standardized manner to distinguish voice packets </li></ul><ul><li>no telling which path the IP packet will take </li></ul><ul><li>what headers get added. </li></ul>Decentralization is effecting LI too! BTW: this is all true for any kind of traffic
    19. 19. L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Networking Protocol Layers L5 <ul><li>System technologies about control : </li></ul><ul><li>IMS </li></ul><ul><li>Quality of Service (QoS) </li></ul><ul><li>Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) </li></ul><ul><li>RST Injection for TCP protocol </li></ul><ul><li>Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) </li></ul><ul><li>Digital Rights Management (DRM) </li></ul><ul><li>Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers . </li></ul><ul><li>Consider an evolution about relationships </li></ul><ul><li>Mashup’s </li></ul><ul><li>P2P </li></ul><ul><li>Encryption </li></ul><ul><li>People technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Organizing content: Tags </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cloud computing (XMPP) </li></ul><ul><li>Traffic Scattering </li></ul><ul><li>Network coding </li></ul><ul><li>Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system . </li></ul><ul><li>Other related issues: </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure costs </li></ul><ul><li>Missing services/functions </li></ul><ul><li>Privacy concerns </li></ul>Traffic Scattering
    20. 20. Cable TV Internet Digital Rabbit ears CDMA TV/Radio GSM/GPRS Satellite TV UWB WiMAX UMTS 802.20 Etc. NFC What could STB’s see? Bluetooth(R) 802.11a 802.11b/g GSM/GPRS CDMA IR RFID GPS UWB WiMAX UMTS 802.20 TV / Radio Etc. NFC The world is increasingly connected What could end-users see? Traffic scattering
    21. 21. L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Networking Protocol Layers L5 <ul><li>System technologies about control : </li></ul><ul><li>IMS </li></ul><ul><li>Quality of Service (QoS) </li></ul><ul><li>Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) </li></ul><ul><li>RST Injection for TCP protocol </li></ul><ul><li>Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) </li></ul><ul><li>Digital Rights Management (DRM) </li></ul><ul><li>Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers . </li></ul><ul><li>Consider an evolution about relationships </li></ul><ul><li>Mashup’s </li></ul><ul><li>P2P </li></ul><ul><li>Encryption </li></ul><ul><li>People technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Organizing content: Tags </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cloud computing (XMPP) </li></ul><ul><li>Traffic Scattering </li></ul><ul><li>Network coding </li></ul><ul><li>Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system . </li></ul><ul><li>Other related issues: </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure costs </li></ul><ul><li>Missing services/functions </li></ul><ul><li>Privacy concerns </li></ul>Network Coding
    22. 22. Network Coding <ul><li>Network coding is a field of information theory and coding theory and is a method of attaining maximum information flow in a network </li></ul><ul><li>The core notion of network coding is to allow and encourage mixing of data at intermediate network nodes . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In contrast to traditional ways to operate a network that try to avoid collisions of data streams as much as possible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A receiver sees these data packets and deduces from them the messages that were originally intended for the data sink. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>This is an elegant principle that implies a plethora of surprising results </li></ul>http://searchnetworking.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid7_gci1267914,00.html http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=breaking-network-logjams&SID=mail Is current core network controlled thinking about packets becoming obsolete?
    23. 23. L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Networking Protocol Layers L5 <ul><li>System technologies about control : </li></ul><ul><li>IMS </li></ul><ul><li>Quality of Service (QoS) </li></ul><ul><li>Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) </li></ul><ul><li>RST Injection for TCP protocol </li></ul><ul><li>Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) </li></ul><ul><li>Digital Rights Management (DRM) </li></ul><ul><li>Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers . </li></ul><ul><li>Consider an evolution about relationships </li></ul><ul><li>Mashup’s </li></ul><ul><li>P2P </li></ul><ul><li>Encryption </li></ul><ul><li>People technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Organizing content: Tags </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cloud computing (XMPP) </li></ul><ul><li>Traffic Scattering </li></ul><ul><li>Network coding </li></ul><ul><li>Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system . </li></ul><ul><li>Other related issues: </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure costs </li></ul><ul><li>Missing services/functions </li></ul><ul><li>Privacy concerns </li></ul>
    24. 24. QoS How can QoS work today and in the future? ….when you consider… <ul><li>Emerging future: overlay techniques (P2P), mashup’s, traffic scattering, network coding. </li></ul><ul><li>Encryption or use packet-obfuscation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lowest prioritization for all encrypted traffic? – Privacy is systematically discriminated against. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Most of the time the SERVERS ARE SLOW and NOT the network. </li></ul><ul><li>Low Utilization is a fundamental part of network design </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Redundancy for reliability. Capacity for peak loads. What does it mean to run a link/box at 10%? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Race with Moore's Law </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Link queue can empty faster than you can run instructions to make QoS decisions. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>QoS adds complexity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fiber capacity shifts bottlenecks from pipes to nodes and because of the enormous fiber speeds available, adding node queues to the mix of things that need to be QoS configured and managed doesn't appear to simplify the QoS challenges. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Where is the ROI? </li></ul><ul><li>etc. </li></ul>QoS is NOT an adequate substitute for capacity and potentially makes a bad situation much worse
    25. 25. L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted Competition Open Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Networking Protocol Layers L5 <ul><li>Why this fixation about control ? </li></ul><ul><li>It is rooted in scarcity concerns about the capacity of the physical layer infrastructure. </li></ul><ul><li>Other related issues: </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure costs </li></ul><ul><li>Missing services/functions </li></ul><ul><li>Privacy concerns </li></ul>Is the real challenge managing scarcity? …or simply keeping up with technology’s ability to satisfy growing demand. <ul><li>This results in a quest to “manage all the traffic” at the higher layers to prevent network resource depletion </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To avoid a network wide meltdown </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Irrational fear? – I see this perspective hidden in the term “ Network Management ” which is a code word for control </li></ul><ul><li>Evolution driven by Moore’s Law </li></ul><ul><li>Twisted light: excess of 560 Gbps on a single wavelength in a DWDM system today </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In the near future it is expected that data rates in excess of 1000 Gbps per wavelength will be possible </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Optical Orbital Angular Momentum (OOAM) has the potential to add an almost infinite number of phase states to the modulated signal and further increase the capacity to thousands of terabits. </li></ul><ul><li>The number of wavelengths (colors) on a fiber is currently around 80 and climbing </li></ul><ul><li>The number of fibers between Internet peering points is approx 200. </li></ul><ul><li>OK …you do the math! …looks like the optical to electronic bottleneck makes it impractical to practice “network management” in the core network </li></ul>http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1367-2630/9/9/328/njp7_9_328.html#nj250899s1 http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=04388855 http://www.networkworld.com/news/2007/021507-dont-expect-video.html
    26. 26. At the Heart of the thing known as “The Internet” <ul><li>It’s an environment that fosters experimentation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Clearly &quot;the place&quot; for innovation of communication services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Seems to be about the absence of impediments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The lack of impediments seen in one eco-system and not the other appears to be making a huge difference in where innovation (and the associated wealth it generates) will be most successful. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>More experimentation then more luck! More $$$! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A major part of innovation is what we can call unexpected usage (or luck). However, the luck seems to be on the Internet side these days. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Application-independent, </li></ul><ul><ul><li>TCP/IP or UDP are the backbones of the end-to-end nature of the Internet. </li></ul></ul>If history is any guide, a betting man would probably look for the next large market cap company to be about services and come from the Internet eco-system.
    27. 27. A Major Challenge for the Restricted eco-system Technology…. How can any technology which relies on extensive core network control and takes an application focus and consider packet information invariant, adapt to overlay techniques found in P2P networks, traffic scattering, network coding, the increasing use of encryption, the emergence of cloud computing, as well as trends related to dynamically composed and instantiated concoctions (formally known as applications) at the edge of the network? T he web is becoming “THE” programming development platform. Now, many view the web as the ultimate programming platform that helps all of humankind
    28. 28. Reality Summary <ul><li>Early, half-baked is rewarded better </li></ul><ul><ul><li>striving for perfect is the enemy of good, and doing so is very time consuming, very expensive, and easily by-passed </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Everyone wants to differentiate their products </li></ul><ul><li>People always dream of reaching de facto nirvana </li></ul><ul><li>Lock in your customers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>mine your customer set with derivative products and advertising; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Politics (or group affiliation) overrides many choices </li></ul><ul><li>Economic incentives to succeed in the market are the major goals tied to differentiation strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Technology religion (personality preferences) will override the benefits of standards to product developers and people running companies focused on success. </li></ul>
    29. 29. Conclusions <ul><li>Which Titan is winning?? </li></ul><ul><li>Restricted vs. Open – this debate is still being waged on the technology battlefield </li></ul><ul><li>… The Internet eco-system has spawned great wealth, a massive number of jobs and even helped governments to grow tax revenues across the planet. </li></ul>Understanding competition dynamics on innovation is critical for any company trying to anticipate where the technology is going, instead of chasing it
    30. 30. Advice ….Some Thoughts <ul><li>It is about winning….. </li></ul><ul><li>You should ask for: …the serenity to accept the things I cannot change (attempts to control the Internet), the courage to change the things I can (business cases that ignore reality), </li></ul><ul><li>… ..and most importantly… </li></ul><ul><li>… the wisdom to know the difference! </li></ul>
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