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Portfolio project

  1. 1. THE SIN PORTFOLIO Original Sin By Michelangelo Buonarroti Presented by: Brian Neary
  2. 2. INDEX Sections: 1. Mission Statement- objective & strategy (pg.2-3) 2. Selection Process- factors, and scoring- (pgs.4-6) 3. Industry Analysis- (pgs. 8-12) 4. Company Analysis- (pgs.12-29) 5. Hedge Analysis- (pg. 30) 6. Portfolio Financials- (pgs.31- 36) 7. Sin Portfolio Performance (pg. 37-39) 8. Financials Appendix- (pgs.40-51) 9. Bibliography (pg.52) 10. Endnotes (pg.53-54)
  3. 3. INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE The primary Investment Objective of the “SIN” Portfolio is to create a well- diversified International Equity Fund that endeavors to achieve long term capital appreciation, stable returns, and sustainable growth based upon our uniquely designed stock selection model, and its related parameters. PRINCIPAL STRATEGY The Sin Fund is a $100 million dollar closed-end asset fund designed for a “bottom-up” approach to investing. The Principal Investment Strategy of the fund is to invest 90% of its assets in Large Cap common equity securities ($1.7-$500 billion USD) of non-U.S. issuers. The remaining 10% of its assets are for defensive positioning. The equity markets comprising the portfolio principally encompass the BRIC, MSCI EAFE Index, as well as from sectors designated as emerging market zones. The countries/regions to be included within the fund are China, Japan, Western Europe, and the Middle East. Accordingly, the equity issuer from a particular country or geographic region selected for the fund will only be considered if it possesses three specific characteristics. The first qualification designates that the stock has a principal securities trading market in that country or geographic region. The second condition is that the company derives 50% or more of its annual revenue within its vicinity. Lastly, the equity issuer is incorporated under the laws of, or has its corporate headquarters in that country or geographic region. The equity securities in which the Fund invests may also include depositary receipts, preferred securities, and ETFs. Furthermore, the Sin Fund’s 90% investment policy may be changed without shareholder approval. However, notification of investment strategy modifications will be sent in writing. There are several inherent risks with investment in the Sin Fund, and non- U.S. assets. The first regards performance risk. In general, stock values will fluctuate in response to the specific activities of a company, as well as to
  4. 4. general market conditions. Since the shares of an international fund are not bank deposits, they aren’t guaranteed or insured by the FDIC, SIPC, or any other government agency for default. Therefore, it may not be feasible to enforce a judgment against the issuers of the securities, possibly resulting in a total loss of the investment. Second, investment in foreign securities involves market risk. Quite often foreign securities are less liquid than comparable U.S. securities, so they may exhibit price volatility and an inability to execute timely divesture. There may also be differences in clearance and settlement procedures effecting accurate settlements, and resulting in unforeseen losses. Currency risk is prevalent along with the typical risks associated with domestic securities. If the value of a local currency falls relative to the U.S. dollar, then the U.S. dollar value of the foreign security will decrease. Third, foreign securities also have risks related to global economic and political developments. Several include expropriations, confiscatory taxation, exchange control regulation, limitations on foreign ownership or the transfer of assets, as well as situations of regional social instability. Fourth, non-U.S. securities may be subject to regulatory risk. In general, overseas security exchanges and broker-dealers have less oversight by compliance entities than the U.S. markets. Foreign requirements may vary for providing publicly available information. In the case of unsponsored or unregistered depositary receipts the primary issuers are under no obligation to distribute shareholder communications, or to convey any voting rights for the deposited securities. Moreover, foreign accounting regulations, auditing, and financial reporting standards may deviate from applicable FASB standards. Lastly, there is no guarantee that any fund will achieve its investment objectives. The depositor accepts the speculative risk of the portfolio when taking a position. The performance of the Sin Fund depends upon whether or not the investment team is successful in applying the portfolio investment strategies.
  5. 5. SECURITY SELECTION PROCESS The Sin Fund utilizes a quantitative approach to the equity selection process by employing a proprietary model. The model is both industry-neutral and region-neutral. It creates a diversified portfolio consisting of three predetermined Sector components: Capital Goods (industries may include: Aerospace & defense, construction/agricultural machinery, raw materials, construction supplies/services, project management/engineering, oil services, and capital goods manufacturing), Consumer non-cyclical (industries may include: Alcohol and Tobacco), and Services (industry: Gaming). The model is driven by research that screens a series of stocks within the global marketplace. The model employs five quantitative screens based on the following primary inputs: P/E Ratio ( 12 months trailing ) Earnings per share ( 5YR Growth Rate ) Revenues ( 5YR Growth Rate ) Price to Free Cash flows ( 12 months trailing ) Total Debt to Equity ( Most Recent Quarter ) EBITD ( 5YR Average ) Each of these six factors contributes 16 2/3 % to the total calculation. The individual securities are then ranked within each industry sector by the most effective combination of these factors based upon the current economic cycle. The scale of the ranking is from (1-5) with 1 being the lowest value or percentage performance indicator, and 5 being the highest. Holdings within each sector are uniformly distributed. No industry will represent more than 30% of the Fund’s Portfolio. Furthermore, no single position will comprise more than 10% of the total value under management. The individual weighting of each security will be determined by its relative position within the scale. The shares will then be accumulated as portfolio holdings according to the percentage calculated from the screening process.
  6. 6. The Sin Fund may invest up to 10% of its net assets in forward foreign currency exchange contracts, commodity futures and ETFs. This strategy is for hedging purposes, to protect against a decline in the fund’s securities or an increase in prices of securities that may be purchased. These assets may be used to increase, limit or modify exposure to various securities, indices, countries or regions. Sin Portfolio Components 10% 30% Military / Industrial Alcohol / Tobacco 30% Gaming 30% Portfolio Hedge The Sin Fund, based upon its proprietary quantitative model, may engage in active trading of its portfolio securities. As an example, a portfolio turnover rate of 100% is equal to a fund buying and selling all of its securities one time during the course of the year. Therefore, a high portfolio turnover rate (over 100%) could result in increased brokerage fees and substantial taxable capital gains distributions to the shareholders. The Sin Fund employs a buy and hold strategy, with anticipated portfolio turnover rate of approximately 25%-50%. The fees and expenses applicable to the fund are calculated as follows: Shareholder Fees: 1. Maximum sales charge (load) imposed on purchases- 2.5% 2. No deferred sales charges (load) 3. Early Redemption fees- 5% (within 60 days of initial purchase) Annual Fund Operating Expenses: (1.25%) 1. Advisory fee 0.5% 2. Distribution and/or Service (12B-1) fees: 0.25% 3. Other expenses: 0.5%
  7. 7. The price of the Sin Fund’s shares (excluding the sales charge shown above) is called net asset value, or NAV. The NAV is based on the value of the fund’s portfolio securities. The initial pricing will be $100 per share, or par of the $100 million portfolio, with a total of 1 million shares issued. From the initial pricing onward, the NAV of the fund will differ because of ongoing distribution fees, and relative stock performance. Actual market price reflects NAV plus sales fees. The NAV per share will be determined once daily at 4:00 p.m. EST on each day that the NYSE is open (or early closes). Shares will not be priced on days that the NYSE is closed. The value of the portfolio is based upon each stock price, when available. If a market price is not readily obtainable, the asset will be marked at its fair value. Therefore, regarding securities that are listed on foreign exchanges, the NAV may change on days when shareholders will be unable to purchase or sell shares. The last topic to be discussed within the security selection process is the Sin Fund’s dividend and income distribution policy. First, the fund will disburse its net investment income (for example: the accumulation of stock dividends for the fiscal year) if any, in the form of an annual dividend to all of its shareholders. The weighting of this payout will be in proportion to the amount of the fund’s shares held. Second, any net realized capital gains that are accrued within the fund from the sale of any of the portfolio holdings will be allocated to investors, on an annual basis. These earnings will be calculated net of any capital losses incurred during the year. The distributions are eligible for favorable Capital Gains Tax rates if the positions were held for more than 12 months. However, if the shares were sold in 12 months or less, the gains would be subject to regular income taxes at the shareholder's tax bracket. The fund’s fiscal year begins on the first business day of January within the current year of inception.
  8. 8. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS The first Industry component of the Sin Fund, as President Dwight D. Eisenhower forewarned us of in his ‘Farewell Address to the Nation’, is the Military Industrial Complex. The Capital Goods providers encompassing this Sector are composed primarily of multinational corporations. Several industries include defense contractors, aerospace & military weaponry producers, engineering firms, heavy industry manufacturing, agricultural machinery, and construction equipment and services firms. The following paragraphs will examine the general configuration, and overall financial econometrics of the two industries selected for the portfolio; Aerospace/Defense & Construction Services. The military, aerospace, and defense industries represent the vast majority of global growth within the military industrial complex. In total, worldwide defense spending for FY 2006 was $1.1 trillion dollars. The United States was first place on the list with $623 billion dollars appropriated. China followed in second place with $63 billion dollars. Russia was a distant third, with $50 billion dollars spent on defense. The remaining top-ten entrants were all Western European NATO Alliance members 1. The largest manufacturing groups within the aerospace/defense sector are ship-building, heavy weaponry, aircraft, and various technology-based producers of missile systems, radar equipment, and light armament. Key competitors within the category represent the largest industrialized nations. The major manufacturers include; BAE Systems in the U.K., EADS in the Netherlands, Thales & DCN in France, state owned Sukhoi & RSK MIG in Russia, Saab in Sweden, Rheinmetall & Walther in Germany, Finmeccanica in Italy, and the numerous U.S. corporations, not eligible for the portfolio. The second segment within the Capital Goods analysis is engineering/heavy construction industry. This group includes construction project management firms, large-scale manufacturing & production, as well as oil services and equipment providers. Several notable companies include; Mitsui, Komatsu,
  9. 9. Hitachi, Hyundai, Mitsubishi Heavy, Skanska, Norinco-China International, Cemex, and Halliburton. In particular, Halliburton characterizes a hybridized business model, having construction project management services and civilian defense contracts, along with the oil equipment and servicing aspects of the energy industry. Other notable firms excluded from examination for the portfolio are Fluor, Schlumberger, Bovis Lend Lease, Turner Construction, Caterpillar, and Ingersoll Rand all located within the U.S. The FY 2006 financial results for this industry exceeded $300 billion dollars in revenues. The global market cap for the sector, including agricultural and commercial equipment (Komatsu and Caterpillar), is over $600 billion dollars 2. The segment has been experiencing a global growth rate of 10-20% yearly. However, this figure is biased especially toward the Asian Tiger and Chinese building booms, specifically the 2008 Olympic capital improvement projects. In regard to future economic expansion, the most important developing regions to account for increasing revenue streams will remain the Middle East, China and Southeast Asia, with average GDP growth rates exceeding 10%, and gross capital expenditures over $500 billion dollars a year. The UAE, in particular, has approved capital improvement projects in excess of $2 trillion dollars to be constructed over the next 5-10 years. Second sector within the fund is Consumer Non-cyclical. The industry selected for the portfolio is Alcoholic Beverages. It is comprised of three major segments: beer (which includes primarily beer, ale, ciders, and stout), wines (includes brandies) and spirits (includes primarily liquors, whiskies, and vodka). According to research firm Datamonitor, the global alcohol industry generated total revenues of $812.4 billion in 2006, an increase of 2.4% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1 for the five year period of years 2002 though 2006i . Datamonitor forecasts that there will be a 2.2% CAGR for years 2006-2011. The breweries segment of the global alcoholic beverage industry accounts for 48.7% of all industry revenues, followed by Wines with a 28.3%
  10. 10. contribution to global revenue, and Spirits with 22.9%ii. China is the largest consumer of beer (Czechs have the honor of being the largest per capita consumersiii). The Chinese drink an estimated 19.7% of all beer consumed worldwide in 2005, followed by the USA who consumed approximately 14.8% of all beer. Germany is the third largest consumer at close to 6%iv. Europe is responsible for approximately 49.4% of the $187.4 billion generated in sales within the Spirits segment of alcoholic beverages – a CAGR of .7% for years 2002 – 2006. Europe is considered a mature market and it is not surprising that there is little growth. The region with the largest CAGR for years 2002-2006 is Asia-Pacific, Asia-Pacific CAGR is 4.4% over the same period. Global sales of the Spirits totaled approximately $269 billion in 2005. According to Euromonitor, White Spirits (which includes Vodka, Gin, and ‘white’ rum like Barcardi®) accounted for 23.2% of all spirits sales, followed by Whiskey, which accounts for 10.5% of overall sales. Although rum accounted for only 5.6% of global spirits sales, rum is growing fastest in popularity, according to Euromonitor. Western Europeans have been the leading consumers of Spirits accounting for about 30% of the $269.7 billion spent on Spirits. However, Europe (especially Western Europe) is considered a mature market for alcohol consumption. India showed the most growth in major markets of Spirits salesv. The greatest growth opportunities exist in emerging markets such as China, Southeast Asia and Latin America. China especially is an interesting opportunity for growth in the alcoholic drinks industry. As the middle classes emerge in these countries, there is an expectation for sales growth of global ‘premium’ brands. These ‘premium’ brands can be considered a luxury item. The company best equipped and prepared to take advantage of these opportunities can potentially be the big winner in the world alcoholic beverages industry.
  11. 11. The third and final component of the Sin Fund is the Services Sector, in particular the Gaming Industry. The 14 industry segments can be categorized into either brick-and-mortar casinos or online gaming and Internet casinos. Bricks-and-mortar casinos include land-based casinos, riverboats, dockside casinos, tribal casinos, slot parlors, racinos (slots at racetracks), and limited- stakes casinos. Online gaming and Internet casinos include virtual poker rooms, and other online sites in countries where it is legal.vi Gambling as an activity has existed in some form or another in every society from the most primitive to the most advanced. Games that are played throughout the world today have their roots in sixteenth century Europe. While gambling and wagering have always been a popular pastime, it has not been until recently that companies have been able to amass tremendous revenues. The global industry revenues are expected to double from $61.4B in 2000 to excess of $100B by 2009.vii17 The Sin Portfolio managers are bullish toward the gaming industry, as a result of the trends that we have seen during the recent boom. First, we have noticed there is a latent demand for gambling. The soaring Gaming industry growth in regions where legalization takes place indicates that the industry’s customer base is nowhere near saturated. Unlike most other industries, an increase in supply of gaming venues typically leads to an increase in demand. As a result, pockets of Casino hotels are appearing around the globe. It is usual for a number of gaming companies to occupy the same area in order to satisfy the demand, clearly indicating it is an industry which thrives on economies of scale. Secondly, Internet-based gambling eliminates two of the largest constraints within the industry, legalization and accessibility. Internet-based casinos have managed to successfully maneuver through the legal landscape. While some governments have eliminated or highly regulated brick-and-mortar gambling, laws have lagged behind Internet gambling making it a controversial grey area. The Internet allows people to partake in gambling who otherwise cannot travel
  12. 12. to a brick-and-mortar casino. The online casino customer base will grow as the Internet reaches the far corners of the globe. Thirdly, casinos have offered visitors more than the opportunity to gamble, by positioning themselves as family destinations. They have become family vacation-oriented, providing entertainment and services suitable for children as well as adults. For instance, The Atlantis Resort and Casino located on Paradise Island in the Bahamas offers its customers a variety of services including a large marina, golf course, nightclubs, restaurants, a water park and a beach. Casinos have also developed their meeting, incentive, convention and exposition (MICE) business as well. The final topic to be discussed for Gaming regards the major constraints upon the industry. The two principal factors are government regulation and extensive capital expenditures. Governments around the world are cautious when dealing with the gaming industry, often feeling it has the responsibility to protect their constituents from a potentially harmful environment. Those governments that allow gambling usually do so in order to promote tourism and generate employment opportunities yet still maintain tight control over their operations. Also, brick-and-mortar casinos require a significant amount of funds in order to deliver a product that can generate consistent revenues. As discussed earlier, Casino Hotels are no longer simply rooms full of tables and slots. Casinos today are destination resorts requiring an entire infrastructure to support the needs of the operation. It is for this reason that international locations are often sponsored in some part by the local government, providing beneficial tax consideration and legislation to promote travel & tourism.
  13. 13. COMPANY ANALYSIS The first company to be included within the Sin Fund portfolio of stocks is Finmeccania SpA. Finmeccanica is Italy's largest aerospace/defense company, operating in the design and manufacture of helicopters, aeronautic design and manufacture, aerospace/satellites, missiles/defense electronics. The company has 56,000 employees within 5 main subdivisions. The main business segment is Alenia Aeronautics. The company has an alliance with EADs and Thales in production of the Typhoon Euro-fighter. Also, the company is a 25% owner of the Sukhoi civilian aircraft division, of Russia. The company’s second largest division MBDA is a joint alliance with BAE Systems and is the #2 producer of missiles, behind Raytheon. The company also has significant manufacturing assets in the heavy rail transport, energy and IT sectors. Finmeccanica has a market cap of €8.7 billion Euros, with 425 million shares outstanding. The group is listed on the Milan stock exchange, and operates in Italy and abroad through 16 companies and 6 joint ventures. The company re-invests over 16% of its revenues on research and development. From a future earnings perspective, the company reported guidance in excess of 10% growth for FY 2008-2009. Also, based upon forward industry contracts, the company expects revenues of €17 billion Euros for FY 2010. Two recent developments are a €1.8 billion Euro contract with France to produce helicopters, and a manufacturing deal of 2 satellites for Spain.3 However, uncertainties for the company exist within its aeronautics division. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that Tupelov and Sukhoi Aerospace companies will be consolidating operations. Therefore, with a Russian re-assertion of “State Power”, Finmeccanica may possibly be prohibited from further ownership rights of a state-run corporation, and lose out on a substantial revenue stream.
  14. 14. The second company to be discussed within the Large Cap Sector is China North Industries Corporation (or Norinco Group). It is a mainland Chinese Enterprise Group engaged in international large capital expenditure projects, manufacturing, marketing, and production services. Norinco’s scope of operations includes defense/weaponry products, international engineering, construction project management, optronics, chemical products, recreational sports firearms & equipment and logistics services.4 The Norinco Group is one of China's 10 defense-industrial enterprises (Jungong Qiye) which report directly to the State Council. The company does not have any formal ties to the People’s Liberation Army, although it is an indispensable military supplier. The Norinco Group was created in the early 1980's as the export arm of the Ministry of Ordnance Industry. Norinco Group was eventually incorporated in 1988 during a wave of State de-regulation. During the mid-1990’s the People’s Congress sought to restructure China's Military Industrial Complex. As part of the reorganization, shares of Norinco International were sold to the public. The company has 162.4 million shares outstanding worth in excess of ¥15 billion Renminbi ($1.7 billion dollars). But, it remains 81% controlled by parent company (a.k.a. central authority) so the true market cap of the company is indeterminable, especially in respect to an artificially undervalued currency. Norinco Group currently has 82 overseas corporate locations, and 23 domestic subsidiaries. The shares issued trade on China’s Shenzhen Stock Exchange. From an R&D and Forward Earnings perspective, the Norinco Group develops and sells high-tech defense products. Norinco has designed precision strike systems, missile components (including fire control systems, sighting and aiming systems), amphibious assault weapons & equipment, long-range suppression weapon systems, anti-aircraft & anti-missile systems, information & night vision products, high-effect destruction systems (WMD’s), anti- terrorism & anti-riot products as well as small arms weaponry.5 However, the Norinco Brand has established its international reputation primarily thru its engineering and construction projects (roads, railways, bridges, commercial and residential buildings, municipal facilities, power
  15. 15. stations, and environmental protection projects). Recently, the company completed Ethiopia’s first superhighway, and has begun phase II construction of the first subway system in Tehran, Iran. The project is company’s largest foreign revenue generator to date, valued at approximately $800 million dollars. Norinco has had its share of controversy. In March 2000, the company sold $65 million dollars worth of weapons to the Zimbabwe government, including anti-personnel shells, rocket-propelled grenades, tanks and tank ammunition, as well as large shipments of small arms. Also, in May 2003, the U.S. government imposed sanctions on Norinco for allegedly supplying missile technology to Iran. The charges included transfers of equipment and technology that could contribute to a WMD program. Prior to the sanctions Norinco exported an estimated $100 million worth of products to the U.S. Norinco has also experienced recent earnings disappointments. Company officials blame the sharp spike in commodity prices, and the appreciation of the Yuan as main contributors. Despite reduced project volume, the company recently signed another €500 million Euro contract with Iran to supply railway cars. Also seen as beneficial, the Chinese government is increasing its defense spending budget for FY 2008-09 directly from the $300 billion dollar China Sovereign Fund, in response to continued U.S. aid commitments to Taiwan. The third company to be added to the portfolio is Halliburton. Halliburton is a defense/energy/construction services corporation with over 100 thousand employees and operations in more than 120 countries. The company has recently relocated its headquarters to Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates. The main cash-flow stream for the company is generated in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, with revenues of $13 billion dollars for FY 2006. Halliburton has a market cap of $30 billion dollars, with 881.2 million shares issued and outstanding. The stock currently trades on all major U.S. and German stock exchanges in both Euro and U.S. Dollar denominations. 6 The consensus for long-term growth is estimated at 12% YOY.
  16. 16. The company’s primary industry segment is its construction & energy services group (ESG). The division provides engineering services, logistics, technical products, and heavy manufacturing for oil and gas exploration and production. The company’s subsidiary, Kellogg, Brown & Root (KBR), was a major contractor for the construction division, building refineries, oil fields, pipelines, chemical plants, and civil infrastructure. However, due to substantial losses from ongoing asbestos litigation, and a $1 billion dollar loss from the Barracuda Caratinga construction project in Brazil, Halliburton spun- off KBR in April 2007. Halliburton too, has had its share of controversies. Vice-President Dick Cheney (former Halliburton CEO) has been accused of favoritism in awarding no-bid contracts to the company for operations in Iraq, and Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Moreover, Halliburton has $8 billion dollar contract with the Pentagon to supply American troops and support personnel with food, fuel, housing and logistical support. But, a Government Accountability Office (GAO) examination of several requisitions worth $4.3 billion dollars identified unsubstantiated cost overruns of nearly $2 billion dollars.7 Approximately one-half of every dollar spent could not be justified by the company. Also, it has been documented that Halliburton has been building oil rigs in Iran, despite official U.S. sanctions. And, in May 2003, Halliburton revealed in SEC filings that its KBR subsidiary had paid a Nigerian official $2.4 million in bribes in order to receive favorable tax treatment. 8 As a final note, in 2004 Al-Qaeda Figurehead Osama bin-Laden accused Halliburton of war profiteering, and the subjugation Muslims worldwide. Ironically, the Saudi bin-Laden Group is a direct competitor to Halliburton, but sadly it could not be included in the Sin Fund because it is privately-held. The fourth entrant within the Sin Fund is BAE Systems. BAE Systems is the 3rd largest defense & aerospace company in Europe. The Rockville Maryland subsidiary is the 6th largest defense firm in the United States. There are currently 96,000 employees globally. The company has six major markets;
  17. 17. Australia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sweden, UK, and the U.S. BAE’s total revenues exceeded £15 billion pounds ($30 billion dollars) for FY 2006.7 The primary focus of operations is to deliver a full range of defense/weaponry products including integrated communications, electronic warfare systems, military air support, air-defense, mission support systems, intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance, armored combat vehicles, naval guns, missile launchers, land-based artillery systems, intelligent munitions, submarines and large naval ships, as well as military aircraft. Current revenues for FY 2006 were £12.3 billion pounds ($24 billion dollars). A large portion of the profits were re-directed toward R&D. The FY 2006 expenditure was £1.3 billion pounds. The company currently has a market cap of £16.2 billion pounds ($32.4 billion dollars), with 3.5 million shares outstanding. The stock trades on the London and the DAX exchanges. The future revenue generators for the company are based upon four specific products. The first is the ‘Type 45’ Destroyer. The warship is designed for modern naval combat, combining advanced satellite and radar tracking, with on board missile launching capabilities. The second product is the Typhoon Euro-fighter. Its development is derived from a partnership with EADS, and Alenia Aero-space Groups. The aircraft will be the 21st century replacement plane for NATO, and the Euro-zone. The estimated price for each Typhoon fighter to be built is £20 million pounds. The standing order is for 635 planes to be produced. BAE is responsible for 37% of the plane’s construction, and has obtained the exclusive rights for support and maintenance. The third product is the UAV and UCAV programs. The ‘Taranis’ is an unmanned combat vehicle, and the ‘Herti’ is an unmanned surveillance vehicle. BAE Systems has £124 million pounds committed to the program by the British government. The two projects are being developed in coordination with the fourth future revenue cash flow stream, the SAMPSON system. SAMPSON represents the next generation multi-function radar platform, providing surveillance, target tracking and missile guidance information. The system is currently being implemented on the ‘Type 45’ Destroyers. BAE is relying
  18. 18. exclusively upon the SAMPSON brand to promote all of its complementary products, and be the backbone for future development initiatives. The last member of the military industrial complex for the Sin Portfolio is Rheinmetall AG. Rheinmetall AG is a German automotive and defense company with factories in Düsseldorf, Kassel and Unterlüß. It has a long tradition of making guns and artillery pieces, dating back to the 1890’s. In 1993, Rheinmetall merged with Mauser AG, another firearms/light weapons manufacturer. Then, in 1996 & 1999 respectively, the company expanded its overall scope of operations by acquiring majority-shares of STN Atlas & Oerlikon Contraves, two major European defense companies.8 The company currently has 18,800 employees worldwide. Annual revenues for FY 2006 were €3.6 billion Euros ($5.25 billion dollars). It has manufacturing facilities in Brazil, Mexico, China, India, the U.S. Canada, Turkey, and throughout the Euro-zone. The company’s market cap is €1.9 billion Euros ($2.8 billion dollars), with 34.9 million shares outstanding. The price-to-book ratio is a very attractive 1.86 versus an industry average of 7.4. The 5 year EPS growth rate is 42%, compared to an industry average of 24%. Rheinmetall AG has two specific avenues of revenue creation. First, the automotive sector is parented by Kolbenschmidt Pierburg AG. This segment specializes in automotive modules and components. Its combined divisions manufacture Air Supply & Pumps, Pistons, Plain Bearings, Aluminum engine block technology, and motor services. The company is also an innovator of advanced metal-working and milling technologies. Second, the defense sector of company operations has several product offerings including; armored vehicles, support and mine-clearing systems, NBC protection systems, turret systems, weapons for tank and artillery systems, medium-caliber weapons & ammunition, self-defense systems, propellants and powder, civilian chemicals, air-defense systems, radar/reconnaissance systems, fire control units, UAVs, and war-games/flight simulation. The future cash flows indicators for Rheinmetall are currently at a 2:1 ratio of automotive to defense. But, both groups are experiencing order backlogs.
  19. 19. Growth rates for FY 2007 are 5% year over year, and net income is expected to exceed €120 million Euros. The Sin Fund contains four Alcoholic Beverage Companies in its portfolio: Diageo PLC, Heineken NV, Kirin Brewery, and Pernod-Ricard. The following paragraphs will outline company operations. Diageo PLC is the world’s leading producer of alcoholic drinks. Diageo was formed in 1997 as a result of a merger between Grand Metropolitan PLC and Ireland’s Guinness PLC. Among some of Diageo’s best known premium brands are Smirnoff® vodka, Johnnie Walker® Scotch whiskies, Tanqueray® gin, Bailey’s Original Irish Cream®, José Cuervo® tequila, Captain Morgan® rum, and Guinness® stout. In addition to these internationally known brands, Diageo also produces Premium local brands. Diageo reported fiscal year end June 2007 total sales of £9.917 billion up from £9.704 billion for fiscal year ending June 2006. Diageo generates sales throughout the world. In fiscal year 2007, Europe was Diageo’s biggest market. European sales accounted for £3.765 billion or approximately 38% of Diageo’s total sales. After Europe, North America was the region in which Diageo generated the most sales. Diageo’s North American sales amounted to £2.939 billion – approximately 29% of Diageo total sales. However, Diageo’s sales in Europe and North America declined in fiscal year ending June 2007 compared to fiscal years June 2006. European and North American sales both declined approximately 1.8%. Diageo’s performance in regions outside of North America and Europe paint a different picture. Sales in Asia-Pacific were reported as £1,131 in fiscal year ending June 30, 2007 compared to £1,042 for the previous year – an increase of 8.5%. Furthermore, Diageo’s International (comprised of Latin America and The Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East) sales increased 13.8%.
  20. 20. Diageo’s key strength is being a leader in a variety of categories. Diageo’s whiskey brands accounted for approximately 16.4% of global whiskey sales in 2005, making it the world leader. Diageo is especially strong in the blended scotch whiskey category. Diageo’s Johnnie Walker® brand is the world’s best known brand of blended scotch whiskey. Diageo is the premier blended Scotch whiskey producer in the world, accounting for 35% of global salesviii. The Number two selling Scotch Whiskey is J&B®, a Diageo brand as well. Furthermore, Johnnie Walker® is available is several labels (Red, Black, Green, Gold and Blue) which allows it to compete successfully worldwide, and perhaps at different income levels (I was in Delhi, India recently and at every club I attended, Johnnie Walker Green seemed to be the drink of choice). Diageo also owns the world’s most famous brand on stout: Guinness®. About 60% of the stout sold in the world is Guinness®. Stout consumption is declining somewhat in its more traditional markets such as the UK and Ireland. However, Diageo saw some increase in stout sales in other regions, particularly in Nigeria. Diageo is less competitive in the lager beer market. Diageo’s offering ‘lags’ far behind Belgium’s Imbev and SABMiller. Ultimately, it is Diageo’s stable of ‘premium’ brands and Diageo’s position of being the largest Spirits producer in the world that will give the company leverage in increasing its sales and market shares in emerging markets, particularly China and India. These are large consumption markets with a growing middle class, offering the greatest opportunity for penetration. The second company within the fund, Heineken N.V. is headquartered in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Heineken is the world’s fourth largest beer brewer, behind InBev Anheuser Busch, and SABMiller PLC. The overall marketshare is 5.85%. ix Founded in 1864, Heineken brews and sells over 170 international brands of beer including Amstel®, Poland’s Zywiec®, Birra Moretti® of Italy, and Heineken®, its flagship brand. Heineken owns 115 breweries and distributors in over 65 countries throughout the world. x
  21. 21. Furthermore, Heineken is the principal producer in Western Europe. It is the leading beer brewer in The Netherlands, Spain, and Italy and second leading brewer in Switzerland, Ireland and France. Heineken is also a leading brewer in much of Eastern Europe. Heineken also has a large presence in the USA. Heineken USA, in addition to importing Heineken, is the exclusive marketer of Dos Equis®, Tecate® and Bohemia®. Heineken also owns 50% of Chilean brewer, Compania Cervecerias Unidas. The popularity of Heineken and Heineken’s brands is reflected in its sales numbers. In fiscal year 2006, Heineken reported sales of €11.829 billion (up from 2005 sales of €10.796 – a 9.57% increase). Of these sales, approximately 70% were generated in Europe, 16% in the Americas, 10% in Africa and the Middle East and about 5% in the Asia Pacific region. After many years of being the #1 ranked imported beer brands in the USA, Heineken is now #2, having been replaced by Corona®, a brand owned by Mexico’s Grupo Modelo.xi Heineken believes that future beer consumption growth in the mature markets such as Western Europe, USA, Japan, and Australia is about zero. However, Heineken estimates that in developing regions such as, Eastern Europe, Africa, Latin America and Asia, expected growth is 3% to 4%. The drivers of demand for growth opportunities in beer consumption for developing markets include; growing populations, increase in personal incomes and the shift of consumption from liquors towards beer. xii Heineken’s strengths include its strong global brand recognition. Perhaps Heineken NV’s greatest opportunity for growth is in Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Heineken is currently ranked 21st in the Asia-Pacific region, and, in Latin America ranked #16.xiii Heineken has been aggressive in Asia. It has been acquiring, through its joint-owned Singapore based Asia Pacific Breweries, smaller breweries in countries like Vietnam. The company has also purchased breweries previously owned by Australian brewer, Fosters Ltd. Heineken controls approximately 9.53% of Asia Pacific Breweries.
  22. 22. There are many other emerging market opportunities available for Heineken’s brand growth as well. In particular, the company is well-positioned to take advantage of future prospects for growth in Eastern Europe, as industry and commerce promotes rising incomes and a bourgeoning middle- class within the expanding Euro-zone. Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (Tokyo Stock Exchange: 2503.T) is a Japanese holding company that operating companies in soft drinks and functional foods, but it’s main segment in its domestic brewery business, Kirin Brewery Co Ltd. Brewery. Its main beer brands are Kirin lager beer, Classic Lager, and Ichiban Shibori. The Kirin brand dates back to 1888. For many years it has been the top selling brand of beer in Japan, until recently when it was overtaken by its archrival, Asahi. Even though Asahi is Japan’s largest brewer and holder of Japan’s #1 Brand of beer, Asahi Super Dry, Kirin has been gaining market share against Asahixiv. In addition to beer, Kirin produces popular low malt beer– known as happoshu. In total, 64% of Kirin’s 2006 revenues were derived from its alcohol sales, followed by soft drinks, which accounted for 24%, and pharmaceuticals which accounted for 4% of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd revenues. Kirin Holdings Co Ltd’s remaining 8% source of revenue is from so-called “other operations” such as seasonings, health foods, and its agro/bio businessxv. Aside from the Japanese domestic market, Kirin also has strong sales overseas. Kirin owns 42% of New Zealand brewerxvi Lion Nathan. Kirin also owns 20% of San Miguel Corporation, the largest Philippines food & beverage company. Sales from Lion Nathan accounted for ¥160.2 billion. Additionally, Lion Nathan has a market share greater than 50% of New Zealand’s beer industry. Kirin is aiming to expand in the giant market to the West of Japan: China – as it has acquired a 25% stake in Chinese brewery, Hangzhou Qiandaohu Brewery Co. for $38 million in 2006. Last month, Kirin announced that it is acquiring 100% of Australian dairy products company National Foods Ltd, known for its Yoplait® yogurt among
  23. 23. other brands. Kirin hopes to streamline its combine its distribution channels of National Foods and Nathan Lion. Kirin’s pharmaceutical segment is also expanding, as the company continues to diversify. It has acquired a controlling interest in Kyowa Hakko, a drug maker and developer of cancer treatmentsxvii. The domestic Japanese beer market has been declining most likely as a result of an aging and decreasing population. Japan’s National Institute of Population & Social-Security Research estimates that by 2012 Japan’s population will decline by about 300,000 people per year. However, it currently remains the sixth largest consumer of beer behind China, the USA, Germany, Brazil, and Russiaxviii. There is fierce competition between Kirin and its archrival Asahi Brewing. Both Kirin and Asahi are fighting for supremacy in the same marketplaces, primarily within Japan. However, Kirin stock is preferable to Asahi, as an addition to this portfolio, mainly because of its relative company size and aggressive growth plan for the Asia-pacific region. Another deciding factor is Kirin experienced higher sales growth than Asahi, over the past 5 years. Pernod-Ricard SA is the fourth alcoholic beverage company added to The Sin Portfolio. Pernod-Ricard is the second largest Spirits Company in the world, behind the United Kingdom’s Diageo PLC. Pernod has a strong stable of internationally owned brands such as, Beefeater® gin, The Glenlivet® Single Malt Scotch Scotch, Jameson® Irish Whiskey, Ballantine®, coffee liqueur Kahlúa®, Jacob’s Creek® wines, and Chivas Regal® a premium blended Scotch whiskey. Pernod Ricard, with its acquisition of Allied Domecq, has doubled its share in the North American Spirits market, and bumped the company to the leading Spirits producer in Western Europe. Pernod’s most important categories are Blended Scotch Whiskey and Pernod Blended Scotch Whiskey led by its premium Chivas Regal® and Ballantine’s® (formerly an Allied Domecq brand). The brands accounted for 55% of Pernod Ricard’s whiskey sales ranking second well behind Diageo PLC. Ballantine’s® sales have made Pernod the overall leader of Irish whiskey production.
  24. 24. Jameson’s® is the number #1 brand of Irish whiskey in the world. Rum manufacture is the third largest segment of Pernod, which accounts for 12% of sales. Its best known rum brand is Malibu® also acquired from Allied Domecq. Pernod-Ricard also has a joint-venture with Havana Club International. Havana Club is especially strong in Greece, Chile, and Mexico. However as it is produced in Cuba, it has no access to the enormous US market. A concern for Pernod-Ricard, is an absence of a strong premium vodka brand. Pernod Ricard owns distribution rights to Russian brand Stolichnaya® the world’s number three brand of vodka - until 2010xix. It is likely that Pernod Ricard will try to acquire a premium brand like Sweden’s Absolut® or even Stolichnaya® to enable it to better compete with Diageo. Another premium Pernod-Ricard SA brand, Martell® cognac, has struggled in the domestic European market in recent years. However, Martell® has increasing sales in emerging markets such as Russia, China, and Latin America. Pernod claims a 39% growth rate in Martell® sales over the past year. Pernod-Ricard, like all of its competition, understands that most growth opportunities exist in emerging markets, especially in China, India and Russia. Additionally, Pernod-Ricard seems to be well positioned to take advantage of the increasing demand of ‘premium’ brands due to a growing middle class in these emerging markets. Pernod-Ricard experienced 13% organic growth in Asia, Africa and the Middle East over the first reported quarter of FY 2007/2008 (the quarter ending September 2007). Revenues are also highlighted with a 30% increase in China over the same period last year. Can Pernod-Ricard keep up these results? One can not tell what the future but these figures must be encouraging for the company, as it is clear there is strong demand in Asia, the world’s fastest growing region. The last stocks to be included within the Sin Fund are from the Gaming Industry. The first company to be discussed is OPAS S.A. Founded in 1958 and is based in Athens, it has grown to become the leading gaming company in
  25. 25. Greece. OPAP operates and manages numerical lottery and sports betting games in Greece and Cyprus. Their portfolio of games consists of six numerical lottery games, including Joker, Lotto, Proto, Extra 5, Super 3, and Kino; and three sports betting games including Stihima, Propo, and Propo- goal.xx Kino, the most popular lottery game, is responsible for over 50% of the numerical gaming sector. The sports games are based around the results of Football (American Soccer) matches in Greece. OPAP holds the sole concession to operate and manage the existing games in Greece, as well as a right of first refusal to operate and manage any new lottery games permitted by the Hellenic Republic. With this agreement comes the right to operate and manage all absolute and variable fixed odds betting games in Greece subject to government approval.xxi The Government agreement was signed in 2000 and is in force for 20 years. The Greek gaming industry has been growing at an average rate of 18% since 1998 to over $8 billion today. Other segments within the industry include; horse racing, instant lottery, state lottery, and casinos. OPAP is directly responsible for generating 52.6% of the total industry revenue. In addition to revenue growth, the company has been able to reduce the percentage of sales devoted to income tax expense from 6.36% to 4.66%, which has directly improved their bottom line. OPAP S.A. has a number of focused business strategies starting with revitalizing existing games through increased payouts and rule changes. Introducing “over under” betting as well as adding additional sports activities are concepts that OPAP is considering. It’s also continually focused on introducing new lottery game in an easily accessible format. For example, Bingo Lotto was introduced in 2006, which will be played through nationally televised draws. OPAP hopes to improve its brand through enhancing its distribution network. Currently, OPAP operates its games through an online network of approximately 5,440 dedicated independent agents throughout Greece and Cyprus. The agents are equipped with one or more on-line terminals that are linked directly to a central data center in either Athens or Cyprus. Not only is
  26. 26. the company applying a more uniform and modern look to its distribution network but it’s also making a capital investment to modernize the technology platform to allow for improve operation of the games and to better utilize their on-line capabilities. OPAP has plans to capitalize on its on-line expertise by branching out internationally. Understanding the growth potential of online gaming, it plans to reproduce its network beyond the current concession contract. The online footprint affords OPAP the opportunities to further diversify its operations by providing commercial on-line service other than those relating to gaming. Illegal gambling poses the only direct threat to their market share. OPAP will continue their efforts to combat illegal gaming in Greece by working with the government to identify and implement measures designed to eliminate illegal betting. The second company in the gaming portfolio is Genting Berhad, an investment holding company that engages in a wide range of operations including; leisure and hospitality, gaming and entertainment businesses, plantation, generation and supply of electric power, property development and management, tours and travel related services, investments, manufacturing and trading in paper and paper related products, and oil and gas exploration activities principally in Malaysia. The company was founded in 1965 and now has operations in Asia-Pacific and Europe. It was formerly known as Genting Highlands Hotel Sdn Bhd and changed its name to Genting Highlands Hotel Berhad in 1970. Later, the company changed its name to Genting Berhad in 1978. It is headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. As of July 2007, Genting Berhard held 50.08% interest in Resorts Berhard.xxii The company’s Leisure and Hospitality division operates hotel, gaming, and entertainment businesses; and provides tours and travel-related services, and other support services. Its Plantations division involves in oil palm plantations, palm oil milling, and related activities. The company’s Property division engages in the property development, and letting of land and premises. Its Manufacturing division manufactures and trades paper and paper-related products, as well as involves in downstream activities, including packaging.
  27. 27. Genting’s Oil and Gas division’s activities include oil and gas exploration, and the development, production and sale of crude oil. Its Power division engages in the generation and supply of electric power. It operates a 720-megawatt Kuala Langat power plant in Malaysia.xxiii The company is also involved in various other activities, such as; providing risk and insurance management consultancy, operating golf courses, fruit bunches processing, owning and operating casinos, and tour promotion. The company's pre-tax profit for the third quarter of 2007 plummeted 50.7% to MYR 365.689 million compared with MYR 742.479 million previously due to the impairment losses on goodwill of MYR 937.8 million arising from the GIPLC Group's acquisition of Genting Stanley. Revenue climbed 40.3% to MYR 2.224 billion from MYR 1.585 billion, with higher revenue recorded from all business divisions of the group with the exception of the property division.xxiv For the nine months period, the company per tax profit jumped 39.5% to MYR 2.485 billion ($738 million) that was largely contributed by its leisure & hospitality, plantation and power divisions as well as one-off gains. The company said for the period, its revenue surged 47.9% to MYR 6.234 billion from MYR 4.215 billion a year ago. Earnings per share increased to 39.90 sen from 28.30 sen. The recent financial success has led the Board of Directors of Genting Bhd to declare a Special Dividend of 30.0 sen. The third company in the gaming industry portfolio is Kangwon Land. Founded in 1998 this Kangwondo, South Korea based company is engaged in the provision of hotel and recreational services. The company’ can be broken down into 4 core business operations; Kangwon Land Hotel, which has 674 rooms and 24 floors; casino, which has 132 game tables and 960 game machines, such as black jacks, baccarats, roulettes, big wheels, slot machines and video games; Kangwon Land golf course, which has 18 hole golf course and situated at 1,100m above sea level, and Kangwon Golftel, which is a resort hotel.xxv In addition, the Company operates skiing ground, condominium and
  28. 28. theme park. Of the 4 operating units, the casino operations are responsible for 97.5% of the revenues. Kangwon Land is South Korea’s only legal casino facility and was built on a former coalmine in the Gangwon province. It broke ground on the 51.9 acre resort facility in 1999 and has since expanded to be a multipurpose vacation destination. The casino allows wagering machines and table games on its 125,000 square-foot floor but does not offer sports betting or off-track betting. The facility includes a 500-unit housing facility for its 3135 employees. Additional guest amenities include health club/spa; pools; conference center and ballroom; six restaurants and bars; 400-seat amphitheater. The company even has its own ice hockey and ski teams. In addition to the opening of its casino, Kangwon established several gambling clinics to help prevent and treat gambling addictions.xxvi Kangwon Land High 1 Ski Resort has a total of 18 slopes making it the third largest ski facility in Korea. 3 gondolas and 5 lifts connect to the slopes, which funnel down into the resort area. The Gaming portfolio is rounded off with Tabcorp Holdings Limited, an Australian based company engaged in the provision of leisure and entertainment services, particularly in relation to gambling and hospitality. The Company has three main business segments: Casinos, Wagering and Gaming. Casino operations include hotels, apartment complex, theatres, restaurants and bars. Wagering comprises numerical and fixed odds betting activities, and national and international broadcasting of racing and sporting events.xxvii Gaming includes gaming machine & Keno operations, in licensed clubs and hotels. Tabcorp was formed in 1994 when the Victorian State Government listed it on the Australian Stock Exchange, marking the first major public offering by the statutory body. The company acquired the business formerly conducted by the public sector for $77.8 million AUD, and acquired the necessary wagering and gaming licenses for $597.2 million AUDxxviii. The company has a 75%
  29. 29. controlling position in a joint-venture with the Victorian Racing Industry. Tabcorp provides the licenses, fixed assets, employees and management of the wagering business in return for a fee. The Company has grown through a number of mergers and acquisitions since its founding. In 1999 Tabcorp acquired Star City, further diversifying its portfolio of businesses and broadening its leisure and entertainment operations. In 2000, Tabcorp announced the acquisition of Structured Data Systems Pty Ltd (SDS), which develops networked wagering systems, Keno systems and animated games. In 2003, Tabcorp merged with Jupiters Limited, which owned three Queensland casinos and other gaming operations in Queensland and New South Wales. In 2004, Tabcorp completed a takeover offer for Tab Limited; the New South Wales based wagering and Media Company. The three business units share relatively even pieces of the total revenue. The $1.3 billion AUD of casino revenue is generated by four casino and hotel properties with a combined 407 tables, 4,583 electronic gaming machines, 1,398 hotel rooms, 44 restaurants and bars, and 3 theaters. The casinos also include conference and banquette facilities to accommodate large business functions. The Wagering unit, which generates $1.4 billion of revenue, consists of numerical and fixed odds betting located in 2,652 retail outlets in Victoria and New South Wales. This segment also includes the widely broadcasted Sky Channel network. Sky Channel reaches 1.8 million homes and 5,300 outlets in Australia in addition to international locations including New Zealand, US, Canada, UK, Ireland, Sri Lanka and the Middle East. The channel televises 57,000 races per year and has 700,000 regular retail customers using their wagering products each week. The Gaming unit uses its gaming machines to generate $1.1 billion in revenue. Tabcorp controls 13,669 electronic gaming machines in 130 hotels and 135 clubs under the Tabaret brand in Victoria. It also has Kino games in 2,190 venues in Victoria, Queensland and New South Wales.
  30. 30. Tabcorp’s three major business units of Casinos, Wagering and Gaming employ more than 11,000 people in all States of Australia. Tabcorp has more than 220,000 shareholders and has a market capitalization within the top 50 Australian companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. In the 12 months to 30 June 2007, the company generated net operating revenue (normalized and before non-recurring items) of $3,881.7 million AUD. The company's net profit after tax (normalized and before non-recurring items) for the period was $515.6 million.xxix Tabcorp has typically paid dividends to shareholders in March/April and September/October. Dividends to shareholders in respect of the full year to 30 June 2007 totaled 94 cents per share.
  31. 31. HEDGE ANALYSIS The Sin Fund is employing a hedge strategy to protect its positions from currency fluctuations. As there are 7 different currencies involved with trading, the fund is leveraging the underlying stocks with gold bullion. The position will be in the form of an ETF derivative security (symbol: GLD). The gold ETF does not require storage related expenses or shipping costs, unlike a physical gold purchase, and it is fungible. Its valuation represents 1/10th of the current CME gold commodity futures price. The gold hedge will be 7% of the portfolio’s holdings. The second hedge mechanism to be used by the fund will be in the form of an FX futures ETF (symbol: UDN). The instrument tracks the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Deutsche Bank Short US Dollar Futures Index. The index is comprised solely of short futures contracts. The futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. The fund is non-diversified. The primary purpose of this hedge is to protect the portfolio from U.S. dollar losses from devaluation. The fund will invest 3% in the ETF; to represent a percentage of U.S. sales that the combined companies have within the United States.
  32. 32. PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS 1. Capital Goods- 30% of portfolio holdings ($30,000,000 dollars) Norinco: Chinese Reminbi BAE Systems: Pound Sterling Halliburton: USD/Euro Finmeccania: Euro Rheinmetall AG: Euro RANKING Norinco HAL BAE SIFI RHMG 1 3 2 5 4 1 2 5 3 4 4 5 1 3 2 5 3 2 4 1 1 5 4 3 2 1 3 5 2 4 2.2 3.5 3.2 3.3 2.8 % Weight Norinco HAL BAE SIFI RHMG % 14.44% 23.33% 21.11% 22.22% 18.89% FX exch 0.13525 1 2.05 1.46 1.46 Shs $ 15.15 36.61 460 20.4 56.45 $USD $USD company % price shares total Norinco 14.44% $2.05 2,114,850 $4,333,333 HAL 23.33% $36.61 191,200 $7,000,000 BAE 21.11% $943.00 6,716 $6,333,333 SIFI 22.22% $29.78 223,860 $6,666,667 RHMG 18.89% $82.42 68,750 $5,666,667 100.00% $30,000,000
  33. 33. The following chart is the 5 year performance of the Cap Goods stocks: HAL- Black BAE systems- Gold Norinco- Red Finmeccania- Orange Rheinmetall AG- Green MSCI EAFE Index- Purple S&P 500 Index- Blue Sin Median S&P Performance Portfolio Industry Sector 500 P/E Ratio (TTM) 37.19 31.69 43.08 20.63 EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 33.40 28.31 25.99 23.46 Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 9.40 11.18 15.69 32.65 Price to Free CF's (TTM) 65.50 53.01 68.91 14.68 Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0.56 0.79 0.75 0.73 EBITD - 5 Yr. Avg. 9.52 18.34 18.36 21.63
  34. 34. 2. GAMING- 30% of portfolio holdings ($30,000,000) Kangwon Land: Korean Won OPAP: Euro Genting Bhd: Malaysian Ringgit TabCorp: Australian Dollar RANKING TAH Kang OPAP GENT 1.25 3.75 2.50 5.00 5.00 1.25 2.50 3.75 2.50 1.25 3.75 5.00 2.50 1.25 5.00 3.75 3.75 5.00 1.25 2.50 2.50 5.00 1.25 3.75 2.9 2.9 2.7 4.0 % Weight TAH KANG OPAP GENT 23.33% 23.33% 21.67% 31.67% FX exch 0.89 0.00109 1.46 0.297 shs $ 15.27 23,200 26.56 7.90 SHARES $USD $USD company % price shares total TAH 23.33% $13.51 518,000 $7,000,000 KANG 23.33% $25.29 276,800 $7,000,000 OPAP 21.67% $38.78 167,625 $6,500,000 GENT 31.67% $2.35 4,050,000 $9,500,000 100.00% $30,000,000
  35. 35. The following chart is the 5 year performance of the GAMING stocks: Genting Bhd- Black Kangwon Land- Red OPAP- Orange Tab Corp- Green MSCI EAFE Index- Gold S&P 500 Index- Blue Sin Median S&P Performance Portfolio Industry Sector 500 P/E Ratio (TTM) 15.63 12.56 17.73 20.63 EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 19.63 18.21 11.03 23.46 Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 16.76 9.82 6.25 32.65 Price to Free CF's (TTM) 53.55 31.32 66.68 14.68 Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0.68 0.75 0.27 0.73 EBITD - 5 Yr. Avg. 36.16 14.49 11.53 21.63
  36. 36. 3. ALCOHOL- 30% of portfolio holdings ($30,000,000) Kirin: Japanese Yen Heineken: USD/Euro Diageo Ltd: Pound Sterling Pernod-Ricard: Euro RANKING Hein PERN DIAG KIRIN 3.75 2.50 5.00 1.25 2.50 1.25 3.75 5.00 3.75 5.00 1.25 2.50 3.75 5.00 1.25 2.50 3.75 2.50 1.25 5.00 2.50 5.00 3.75 1.25 3.3 3.5 2.7 2.9 % Weight HEIN PERN DIAG KIRIN 26.67% 28.33% 21.67% 23.33% FX exch 1.00 1.46 2.05 0.00899 shs $ 32.60 151.35 1,093 1,749 SHARES $USD $USD company % price shares total HEIN 26.67% $32.60 245,400 $8,000,000 PERN 28.33% $220.97 38,465 $8,500,000 DIAG 21.67% $2,240.65 2,900 $6,500,000 KIRIN 23.33% $15.72 445,300 $7,000,000 100.00% $30,000,000
  37. 37. The following chart is the 5 year performance of the ALCOHOL stocks: Heineken- Black: Diageo- Red Pernod-Ricard- Orange Kirin- Green MSCI EAFE Index- Gold S&P 500 Index- Blue Median S&P Performance portfolio Industry Sector 500 P/E Ratio (TTM) 23.44 15.18 20.44 20.63 EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 9.41 6.88 11.77 23.46 Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 2.19 6.17 2.70 32.65 Price to Free CF's (TTM) 38.40 27.62 94.99 14.68 Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0.85 1.28 0.78 0.73 EBITD - 5 Yr. Avg. 19.97 16.89 11.93 21.63
  38. 38. PORTFOLIO SUMMARY Portfolio Summary % $USD $USD % Free D/E company weight price shares Cost (USD) P/E EPS Revenues CF's ratio EBITD Norinco 4.33% $2.05 2,114,850 $4,333,333 126.25 1.78 17.35 36.09 0.68 4.46 Halliburton 7.00% $36.61 191,200 $7,000,000 18.75 59.30 6.41 130.63 0.47 11.25 BAE 6.33% $943.00 6,716 $6,333,333 12.94 36.02 16.41 66.61 0.56 9.80 Finmeccania 6.67% $29.78 223,860 $6,666,667 14.36 27.46 11.59 22.16 0.45 11.03 Rheinmetall AG 5.67% $82.42 68,750 $5,666,667 13.64 42.44 -4.75 72.02 0.62 11.06 Tab Corp 7.00% $13.51 518,000 $7,000,000 17.83 28.93 14.57 86.47 0.69 27.21 Kangwon Land 7.00% $25.29 276,800 $7,000,000 15.20 2.80 13.48 96.61 0.24 52.24 OPAP 6.50% $38.78 167,625 $6,500,000 16.20 22.10 21.90 16.20 1.06 16.41 Genting Berhand 9.50% $2.35 4,050,000 $9,500,000 13.30 24.70 17.10 14.90 0.72 48.77 Heineken NV 7.00% $13.51 245,400 $8,000,000 20.03 9.56 5.52 39.76 0.64 19.97 Pernod-Ricard 7.00% $25.29 38,465 $8,500,000 19.20 8.30 9.20 2.10 1.10 25.78 Diageo 6.50% $38.78 2,900 $6,500,000 21.96 0.80 -7.25 57.49 1.43 23.63 KIRIN 9.50% $2.35 445,300 $7,000,000 32.55 18.98 1.30 54.24 0.25 10.50 Sub-Totals: 90% $90,000,000 26.32 21.78 9.45 53.48 0.69 20.93 Portfolio Hedge GLD (gold bullion) 7.00% $77.32 90,530 $7,000,000 UDN (futures) 3.00% $28.09 106,800 $3,000,000 Sub-Totals: 10% $10,000,000 Totals: 100% $100,000,000 Portfolio Performance industry Sector S&P Portfolio 500 AVG AVG P/E Ratio (TTM) 21.22 20.63 26.74 36.23 EPS - 5 Yr. Rate 19.86 23.46 27.85 20.63 Sales - 5 Yr. Rate 8.44 32.65 22.05 14.00 Price to Free CF's (TTM) 47.59 14.68 39.46 127.12 Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0.60 0.73 1.48 0.80 EBITD - 5 Yr. Avg. 19.96 21.63 23.55 19.27
  39. 39. PORTFOLIO STATISTICS Portfolio vs S&P 500 company weight mean variance std dev cov corr beta Halliburton 7.00% 0.02291 0.00974 0.10049 0.00087 0.43179 2.07605 Norinco 4.33% 0.07085 0.04583 0.21800 -0.00039 -0.08916 -0.92997 RHMG 5.67% 0.01715 0.00531 0.07422 0.00043 0.28525 1.01292 BAE 6.33% 0.02149 0.00325 0.05803 0.00025 0.21237 0.58959 Finmeccania 6.67% 0.01303 0.00188 0.04414 0.00034 0.37981 0.80210 Tab Corp 7.00% -0.00111 0.00153 0.03977 0.00034 0.42617 0.81087 Kangwon Land 7.00% 0.02240 0.00640 0.08149 0.00072 0.43888 1.71118 OPAP 6.50% 0.02008 0.01300 0.11611 -0.00026 -0.11060 -0.61445 Genting Berhand 9.50% 0.03437 0.00516 0.07315 0.00065 0.44061 1.54215 Heineken NV 7.00% 0.02423 0.00177 0.04279 0.00018 0.20813 0.42612 Pernod-Ricard 7.00% 0.01559 0.00182 0.04340 0.00009 0.10815 0.22456 Diageo 6.50% 0.01070 0.00057 0.02441 -0.00003 -0.05676 -0.06631 KIRIN 9.50% 0.01371 0.00378 0.06260 0.00003 0.02363 0.07077 Sub-Totals: 90% Portfolio Hedge GLD (gold bullion) 7.00% UDN (futures) 3.00% Sub-Totals: 10% Totals: 100% Period Sin (6/05-12/07) Portfolio S&P Mean 0.01872 0.00993 Variance 0.00584 0.00042 Std Dev 0.06385 0.02090 Cov 0.00025 - Corr 0.19723 - Beta 0.58438 1.00000
  40. 40. PORTFOLIO STATISTICS Portfolio vs EAFE company weight mean variance std dev cov corr beta Halliburton 7.00% 0.02291 0.00974 0.10049 0.00029 -0.11875 -0.47450 Norinco 4.33% 0.07085 0.04583 0.21800 0.00122 0.23121 2.00419 RHMG 5.67% 0.01715 0.00531 0.07422 0.00074 0.41096 1.21275 BAE 6.33% 0.02149 0.00325 0.05803 -0.00022 -0.15497 -0.35756 Finmeccania 6.67% 0.01303 0.00188 0.04414 0.00022 0.20651 0.36243 Tab Corp 7.00% -0.00111 0.00153 0.03977 0.00014 0.14352 0.22694 Kangwon Land 7.00% 0.02240 0.00640 0.08149 -0.00070 -0.35345 -1.14525 OPAP 6.50% 0.02008 0.01300 0.11611 0.00036 0.12942 0.59753 Genting Berhand 9.50% 0.03437 0.00516 0.07315 -0.00007 -0.04202 -0.12222 Heineken NV 7.00% 0.02423 0.00177 0.04279 0.00021 0.20495 0.34872 Pernod-Ricard 7.00% 0.01559 0.00182 0.04340 0.00012 0.11497 0.19838 Diageo 6.50% 0.01070 0.00057 0.02441 -0.00007 -0.11439 -0.11105 KIRIN 9.50% 0.01371 0.00378 0.06260 0.00077 0.50972 1.26878 Sub-Totals: 90% Portfolio Hedge GLD (gold bullion) 7.00% UDN (futures) 3.00% Sub-Totals: 10% Totals: 100% Period Sin (6/05-12/07) Portfolio vs EAFE EAFE vs S&P Mean 0.01872 0.0167 Variance 0.00584 0.0006 Std Dev 0.06385 0.0252 Cov 0.00019 0.0000 Corr 0.08207 -0.0640 Beta 0.23843 -0.0770
  41. 41. Milan Exchange (Symbol SIFI.MI) Growth Rates 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Sales % 13.29 18.10 16.41 EPS % 174.59 73.72 36.02 Dividend % -30.00 -44.07 NM Revenue Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 March 1,903 2,166 2,666 2,818 June 4,325 2,758 3,273 3,485 September 2,066 2,614 2,893 3,153 December 2,753 3,905 4,131 Totals 11,047 11,443 12,963 9,456 Note: Units in Millions of EUR Earnings per Share Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 March -0.08 0.02 0.89 0.03 June 0.23 0.23 0.43 0.35 September 0.13 0.17 0.07 0.26 December 1.15 0.45 0.95 Totals 1.43 0.86 2.34 0.64 Note: Units in EUR Consensus Estimates Analysis # of Est. Median Est. High Est. Low Est. Std.Dev. Proj.Pr/Est. Revenue Pr/Sales Q4: 12/2007 1 4,242.00 4,242.00 4,242.00 -- -- FY: 2007 17 13,536.00 14,844.00 13,327.00 333.52 0.64 FY: 2008 16 14,633.50 15,865.00 13,892.20 414.16 0.59 EPS P/E Q4: 12/2007 1 0.54 0.54 0.54 -- -- FY: 2007 18 1.21 1.67 0.98 0.14 16.87 FY: 2008 18 1.47 1.88 1.27 0.13 13.88 LT Growth Rate (%) 4 15.00 24.00 12.00 4.56 -- Note: Units in Millions of EUR (except for per share items) Data supplied by Reuters Fundamentals.
  42. 42. Shenzhen Exchange (Symbol 000065.SZ) Growth Rates 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Sales % 17.51 13.06 17.35 EPS % -20.96 -2.38 1.78 Dividend % NM NM 9.57 Revenue Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 March 254 275 402 356 June 343 393 262 195 September 246 199 433 119 December 878 380 399 Totals 1,721 1,246 1,496 670 Note: Units in Millions of CNY Earnings per Share Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 March 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.06 June 0.08 0.06 -0.10 -0.10 September 0.01 0.03 0.13 -0.11 December 0.11 0.04 0.03 Totals 0.22 0.15 0.12 -0.15 Note: Units in CNY Consensus Estimates Analysis # of Est. Median Est. High Est. Low Est. Std.Dev. Proj.Pr/Est. Revenue Pr/Sales FY: 2006 1 2,160.00 2,160.00 2,160.00 -- 1.14 EPS GAAP P/E FY: 2006 1 0.15 0.15 0.15 -- 101.20 LT Growth Rate (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- Note: Units in Millions of CNY (except for per share items) Data supplied by Reuters Fundamentals.
  43. 43. New York Stock Exchange (HAL) Growth Rates 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Sales % 11.54 11.53 11.59 EPS % -3.85 77.13 27.46 Dividend % 20.00 6.27 3.71 Revenue Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 March 5,519 4,783 2,938 3,422 June 4,956 4,973 3,116 3,735 September 4,790 4,912 3,392 3,928 December 5,201 5,572 3,509 Totals 20,466 20,240 12,955 11,085 Note: Units in Millions of U.S Dollars Earnings per Share Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 March 0.09 0.35 0.42 0.52 June -0.07 0.37 0.47 0.63 September 0.21 0.47 0.58 0.79 December 0.20 1.03 0.61 Totals 0.43 2.23 2.07 1.94 Note: Units in U.S Dollars Consensus Estimates Analysis # of Est. Mean Est. High Est. Low Est. Std.Dev. Proj.Pr/Est. Revenue Pr/Sales Q4: 12/2007 13 4,047.63 4,186.30 3,930.00 66.71 -- Q1: 03/2008 8 3,977.85 4,117.70 3,846.00 78.37 -- FY: 2007 15 15,093.08 15,271.30 14,700.00 145.22 2.18 FY: 2008 14 17,327.31 18,738.50 16,730.00 543.01 1.90 EPS P/E Q4: 12/2007 20 0.70 0.75 0.64 0.02 -- Q1: 03/2008 14 0.68 0.77 0.63 0.03 -- FY: 2007 23 2.48 2.55 2.40 0.03 14.46 FY: 2008 23 3.00 3.26 2.85 0.11 11.95 LT Growth Rate (%) 4 12.27 15.00 10.00 1.93 -- Note: Units in Millions of U.S Dollars (except for per share items) Data supplied by Reuters Fundamentals.
  44. 44. London Stock Exchange (BA.L) Growth Rates 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Sales % 11.92 13.72 6.41 EPS % 43.32 NM NM Dividend % 9.71 7.09 4.66 Revenue Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 June 3,926 4,633 5,760 6,346 December 4,891 6,386 6,573 Totals 8,817 11,019 12,333 6,346 Note: Units in Millions of GBP Earnings per Share Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 June 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.15 December 0.07 0.07 0.10 Totals 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.15 Note: Units in GBP Consensus Estimates Analysis # of Est. Median Est. High Est. Low Est. Std.Dev. Proj.Pr/Est. Revenue Pr/Sales FY: 2007 21 15,208.00 17,081.00 13,935.40 760.74 1.03 FY: 2008 21 17,505.00 19,515.00 14,702.00 1,112.45 0.91 EPS P/E FY: 2007 15 28.38 31.88 26.02 1.68 0.16 FY: 2008 14 31.82 37.20 28.82 2.32 0.14 LT Growth Rate (%) 3 17.30 17.30 12.00 2.50 -- Note: Units in Millions of GBP (except for per share items) Data supplied by Reuters Fundamentals.
  45. 45. Frankfurt Stock Exchange (RHMG.DE) Growth Rates 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Sales % 4.86 -5.68 -4.75 EPS % 7.01 25.03 42.44 Dividend % 11.11 16.04 17.84 Revenue Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 March 846 779 870 936 June 833 881 902 986 September 805 831 871 998 December 1,070 1,107 1,130 Totals 3,554 3,598 3,773 2,920 Note: Units in Millions of EUR Earnings per Share Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 March 0.31 0.33 0.46 0.60 June 0.75 0.53 0.57 0.66 September 0.47 0.58 0.49 0.91 December 1.15 1.82 1.91 Totals 2.67 3.26 3.42 2.17 Note: Units in EUR Consensus Estimates Analysis # of Est. Median Est. High Est. Low Est. Std.Dev. Proj.Pr/Est. Revenue Pr/Sales Q4: 12/2007 2 1,167.00 1,170.00 1,164.00 3.00 -- FY: 2007 20 3,983.50 4,069.14 3,825.00 52.44 0.44 FY: 2008 20 4,185.50 4,357.00 4,048.00 64.13 0.42 EPS GAAP P/E Q4: 12/2007 1 2.12 2.12 2.12 -- -- FY: 2007 19 4.04 4.87 3.76 0.31 12.08 FY: 2008 20 5.22 6.00 4.39 0.38 9.57 LT Growth Rate (%) 3 11.50 13.20 6.50 2.84 -- Note: Units in Millions of EUR (except for per share items) Data supplied by Reuters Fundamentals.
  46. 46. Tokyo Stock Exchange (2503.T) Growth Rates 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Sales % 2.06 1.41 1.30 EPS % 5.16 18.94 18.98 Dividend % 3.45 7.72 4.56 Revenue Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 March 326,496 311,431 350,101 378,009 June 759,449 740,276 782,722 836,020 September 1,224,255 1,195,492 1,241,359 1,325,344 December 895,437 891,973 883,224 Totals 3,205,637 3,139,172 3,257,406 2,539,373 Note: Units in Millions of JPY Earnings per Share Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 March 3.69 1.03 6.66 6.82 June 14.73 15.55 19.84 17.58 September 41.92 45.49 49.51 49.26 December 35.85 37.72 36.14 Totals 96.19 99.79 112.15 73.66 Note: Units in JPY Consensus Estimates Analysis # of Est. Median Est. High Est. Low Est. Std.Dev. Proj.Pr/Est. Revenue Pr/Sales FY: 2007 10 1,799,000.00 1,860,000.00 1,777,000.00 24,835.70 0.93 FY: 2008 6 1,825,000.00 1,890,000.00 1,787,800.00 38,226.97 0.91 EPS GAAP P/E FY: 2007 10 56.58 59.90 53.50 1.57 30.90 FY: 2008 6 60.33 64.60 47.10 5.76 29.72 LT Growth Rate (%) 1 2.30 2.30 2.30 -- -- Note: Units in Millions of JPY (except for per share items) Data supplied by Reuters Fundamentals.
  47. 47. London Stock Exchange (DGE.L) Growth Rates 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Sales % 3.04 -5.59 -7.25 EPS % -25.45 2.79 0.80 Dividend % 5.14 5.81 6.56 Revenue Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 December 5,060 3,674 3,960 4,022 June 3,831 3,003 3,300 3,459 Totals 8,891 6,677 7,260 7,481 Note: Units in Millions of GBP Earnings per Share Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007 December 0.29 0.32 0.40 0.33 June 0.17 0.10 0.27 0.17 Totals 0.46 0.43 0.67 0.50 Note: Units in GBP Consensus Estimates Analysis # of Est. Median Est. High Est. Low Est. Std.Dev. Proj.Pr/Est. Revenue Pr/Sales H1: 12/2007 1 4,258.00 4,258.00 4,258.00 -- -- H1: 12/2007 1 4,258.00 4,258.00 4,258.00 -- -- FY: 2008 14 7,852.67 8,105.00 7,775.00 100.09 3.75 FY: 2009 13 8,374.26 8,761.00 7,995.00 187.09 3.52 EPS P/E H1: 12/2007 2 35.20 36.10 34.30 0.90 -- H1: 12/2007 2 35.20 36.10 34.30 0.90 -- FY: 2008 23 59.62 62.93 54.28 1.88 0.19 FY: 2009 19 67.25 71.55 58.60 2.86 0.17 LT Growth Rate (%) 4 11.49 13.90 10.00 1.44 -- Note: Units in Millions of GBP (except for per share items) Data supplied by Reuters Fundamentals.