Platforms, ecosystems, and the
future of software
Michael Mace, April 7, 2009
mike@rubiconconsulting.com
@ g

About Rubicon
• Help high tech organizations win markets
through business and market strategy
g gy
– Since 1999
– Practices: define, deliver, defend, optimize
Software ecosystems Page 2

About me
• Macintosh software developer
• Apple
– Director of Mac platform marketing
– Director of customer & competitive analysis
• Palm/PalmSource
– VP of product planning
– Chief competitive officer
Software ecosystems Page 3

Everybody wants a platform
Software ecosystems Page 4

Where did this \"platform\" thing
platform
come from in the first place?
Software ecosystems Page 5

Agenda
• A quick history of software platforms
• What makes a platform win?
• Where will the industry go next?
Software ecosystems Page 6

We
W remember h d
b hardware b tt
better
than software
• What's the
first
electronic
computer?
p
• ENIAC 1946
ENIAC,
Software ecosystems Page 7

What was the first business computer?
Software ecosystems Page 8

J. Lyons & Co.
Software ecosystems Page 9

J. Lyons & Co.
• 30,000 employees
• 150m meals a year
• 36 miles of Swiss roll a day
• ...all on paper
Software ecosystems Page 10

1951: The first business computer
• Lyons LEO, 1951
– Paid Cambridge $5k
– 5 000 square feet 4k of memory
5,000 sq are feet, memor
weighing half a ton
– Payroll, inventory, order
management...
• Processed an employee's wages in 1.5
seconds (vs. 8 minutes)
•L
Lyons spun out as a
computer company
David Caminer, the first business app
programmer / systems analyst
Software ecosystems Page 11

Software was synonymous
with hardware
• First verified use of term
\"software\"
software
• John Tukey, 1958
– Statistician
• Princeton and Bell Labs
– Helped design the U2
– Popularized the term \"bit\"
Software ecosystems Page 12

What was the first third party app?
Software ecosystems Page 13

The first third-party app
• Applied Data Research Autoflow,
1964
– An automatic flowcharting program
• Also the first patented software
– RCA first, then IBM
first
– IBM: free clone
– US government antitrust suit, 1969
– January 1, 1970: IBM unbundles
Software ecosystems Page 14

The first third-party app
• Martin Goetz
– Project Manager,
Manager
Autoflow
– Holder of first software
patent
• Mike Guzik
– Lead programmer,
Autoflow
Computerworld, June1968
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1970s: Rise of the killer app
Software ecosystems Page 16

1979: VisiCalc
• \"Visicalc could some day
become the software tail
that wags (and sells) the
p
personal computer dog.\"
p g
– Ben Rosen, later the founder
of Compaq, writing as an
Dan Bricklin at the
analyst with Morgan Stanley
l t ith M St l West Coast Computer Faire,
May 1979
Software ecosystems Page 17

1980s: Separation of OS from hardware
• August 1980
– IBM signs Microsoft
to supply the OS for
its new computer
• August 1981
– IBM PC ships
• 1982
– Microsoft licenses
MS-DOS to 50
hardware
manufacturers
Software ecosystems Page 18

Agenda
• A quick history of software platforms
• What makes a platform win?
• Where will the industry go next?
Software ecosystems Page 19

The web discovers APIs
• Mashups
Software ecosystems Page 20

Mobile discovers APIs
One-year growth in
registered developers
• Intense interest due to 25,000
recent successes of a
certain mobile device 20,000
15,000
15 000
10,000
5,000
0
Software ecosystems Page 21

Mobile discovers APIs
One-year growth in
registered Palm developers
• Intense interest due to 25,000
recent successes of a
certain mobile device 20,000
15,000
15 000
10,000
5,000
0
1998 1999
Software ecosystems Page 22

\"That's unfair\"
Software ecosystems Page 23

Reality: Most platforms fail
Software ecosystems Page 24

Definition of failure depends
on your goal Need for developers
– Give me a marketing boost over
Don t
Don't care
the competition
h ii
– Get developers to add features
Care somewhat
C ht
I don't have time to develop
– Address use problems a d sub-
dd ess user p ob e s and sub
Care a lot
markets that neither of us could
have tackled alone
Software ecosystems Page 25

What motivates developers?
Software ecosystems Page 26

How platforms fail
Almost Apps hard to find
impossible to Store financials outrageous
g
monetize
Inconsistent APIs (raises cost)
Very hard to get on device
Software ecosystems Page 27

The PC and Windows
• The Rise
– IBM drives belief in large user base
– Hardware architecture permits powerful apps (for the time)
– Open APIs
– Clone licensing drives additional growth; virtuous circle
• The Decline
– Microsoft preys on successful software developers
– Intel and Microsoft can't coordinate innovation
Software ecosystems Page 28

The less friction, the more apps
• Easy to develop
– Powerful APIs, great documentation and support uses
APIs support,
existing tools/languages, easy to debug
• Easy to se
asy sell
– No artificial barriers, easy discovery, marketing,
installation, billing, reasonable financials
• Large user base
– Or the belief that it'll get large
Software ecosystems Page 29

Pluses and minuses of iPhone
ecosystem
Strength Weakness
App f
A functionality
i li
APIs Very capable
limited
Develop-
p Familiar if you're a Mac
y Nonstandard; Java and
developer Flash missing
ment
Arbitrary screening by
Store Built in, pretty good terms
Apple,
Apple price pressure
Perception of world
(Will it continue to
User base domination, high traffic seen
grow?)
by websites
Software ecosystems Page 30

The ultimate ecosystem
doesn t
doesn't yet exist
• Advantages of an integrated platform
– Great discovery, billing, support, APIs
• Advantages of web app development
– Lots of Ajax-style tools, instant deployment, huge user
base, write once run anywhere
Software ecosystems Page 31

Agenda
• A quick history of software platforms
• What makes a platform win?
• Where will the industry go next?
Software ecosystems Page 32

Opportunity in disaggregation
1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
• Computers
• Software that lets computers do multiple tasks
• Independent software
• OS platforms separated from
hardware
• Platforms
separated from OS
Software ecosystems Page 33

\"The Network is the Computer\"
Application Windows PC hardware
Solaris
Application Sparc servers
or Java
Software ecosystems Page 34

Problems
• Latency
• Richness of APIs
• Access to on-device features and data
• Mobile makes it worse
– High latency
– Limited bandwidth
– High cost
– Limited capacity
– Battery life
– Limited coverage
Software ecosystems Page 35

Next: The OS disaggregates
Application Local OS Local hardware
Software ecosystems Page 36

The Meta-Platform is the Computer
Cloud servers
Cloud components
Application
Local OS
L l
Local hardware
Software ecosystems Page 37

Remember
• If you're a developer
– \"Which platform gives me the best long-term business
Which long term
proposition?\"
• If you're a platform vendor
you e p at o e do
– \"How can I create a better ecosystem than the other
guy?\"
• Opportunity: Disaggregating the OS
– Balancing local and cloud OS services
Software ecosystems Page 38

Discussion
• mike@rubiconconsulting.com
• http://mobileopportunity blogspot com
http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com
Software ecosystems Page 39

Win Markets
Trusted Advisors to high-tech fi
T d Ad i hi h h firms seeking
ki
to transform their visions into strategies,
strategies into plans, and plans into results.
Practices:
Define / Design / Defend / Optimize
Software ecosystems Page 40