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  • 1. Statistical Publications Shipping Statistics and Market Review Volume 55 No 4 - 2011Market ReviewAnalytical Focus World Merchant Fleet World Tanker Market World Bulk Carrier Market World Container and General Cargo Shipping World Merchant Fleet by Ownership Patterns World Passenger and Cruise Shipping/ ISL Cruise Fleet Register World Shipbuilding and Shipbuilders Major Shipping Nations World Seaborne Trade and World Port Traffic Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
  • 2. ISL Institute of Shipping Economics and LogisticsLegal Form Independent, private non-profit foundationFounded in 1954Capacity 55 permanent staff membersDirectorate Prof Dr Hans-Dietrich Haasis Prof Dr Burkhard Lemper Prof Dr Frank ArendtBoard of Trustees Decision-makers from trade, industry, science and politicsScientific Advisory Board Experts from trade, industry and scienceSponsoring Body Companies and individual members from the maritime industryDuring the past 50 years the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) has becomeone of Europes leading research and consulting organisations in the maritime sector. Morethan 50 high qualified employees, equipped with state of the art technology and compatibleinstruments, work in trans-disciplinary teams on applied research and development projectsin the departments Logistic Systems, Maritime Economics and Transport, Information Logisticsand Planning/Simulation Systems. Due to its professional capability, superb reputation andexhaustive connections to politics and the industry, ISL will continuously contribute to theadvancement of added value as well as to the maritime and logistics industry as to science inthe future.For further Information please visit: www.isl.orgISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR)Published and distributed by: Subscription prices (Net prices):ISLUniversitaetsallee 11-13 Shipping Statistics and Market Review 201128359 Bremen, Germany Print copy: 480.- € Online: 420.- €Price information and subscription:Phone: +49/4 21/2 20 96-0 Shipping Statistics Yearbook 2010Fax: +49/4 21/2 20 96-55 Print copy: 325.- € Print copy + SSYB CD: 350.- €eMail: subscription@isl.org Online: 295.- €Internet: www.isl.org/infolineWebshop: www.isl.org/shop Shipping Statistics and Market Review 2011 & Shipping Statistics Yearbook 2010 Print copy: 660.- € Print copy + SSYB CD: 681.- € Online: 586.- € Plus packing and postage. In case of inland sales plus VAT(MwSt). Cancellation 3 months before end of calendar year.© Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL), Bremen 2011All rights reserved. No parts of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means,electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system without permissionin writing from the editors. The editors do not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in „ISL ShippingStatistics and Market Review (SSMR)” nor do they accept responsibility for errors or omissions of their consequences.
  • 3. Volume 55 (2011) No 4 - 2011ISSN 0947 - 0220published 9 times per year(double issues Jan./Feb., May/ June. and Sept./ Oct ) . Shipping Statistics and Market Review Analytical Focus World Bulk Carrier Market ISL Comment ........................................................... 5 ISL InfoLine Special ................................................. 15 ISL Statistical Tables ................................................ 19 Market Review Economic Indicators ................................................. 45 World Merchant Fleet .................................................. 48 Freight and Charter Market ....................................... 51 Shipping Prices and Costs ......................................... 63 World Shipbuilding ................................................... 64 World Port Traffic ..................................................... 66 Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
  • 4. Abbreviations/Symbols www.isl.orgAbbreviations n.a. Not available NDRF National Defence Reserve FleetARA Antwerp/Rotterdam/Amsterdam range n.e.c. Not elsewhere classifiedAWES Association of West European Shipbuilders neg. Negligibleb/d Barrels per day NIS Norwegian International Ship RegisterBHP Brake horsepower no Numbercgt Compensated gross tonnage NODC Non-oil Producing Developing Countriescif Cost, insurance, freight nrt Net register tonnageCIS Commonwealth of Independent States nt Net tonnageCOD Country of Domicile NWE,NW Northwest EuropeCPE Centrally-planned Economies o.a. Over allCPI Consumer price index OBO Ore/bulk/oil carriercST Centi Stokes OECD Organization for Economiccu.m Cubic metres (also m3) Cooperation and DevelopmentDB Double bottom O/O Ore/oil carrierDC Developing Countries OPEC Organization of PetroleumDH Double hull Exporting CountriesDIS Danish International Ship Register OR Ordinary RegisterDME Developed market economies P/C Products carrierDS Double sides Pr/OBO Product/ore-bulk-oil carrierdwt Deadweight tons r Revisedd/y Day/year Ro/ro Roll-on/roll-offECB European Central Bank RT Revenue tonEMEs Emerging Market Economies SAR Special administration regionEU European Union SBT Ship segregated ballast tanksFY Fiscal year SDR Special drawing rightsFAO Food and Agriculture Organization SSMR ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review of the United Nations ST Short tonfio Free in and out t Ton/tonnefob Free on board TB Tug/bargeFT Freight tons TEU Twenty feet equivalent unitft Foot TKB Tanker bargeGATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade T/S Tanker/steamgt Gross tonnage T/T Tanker/turbineHP Horsepower ULCC Ultra large crude carrierHT Harbour ton USAC United States Atlantic Coastibf Intermediate bunker fuel USD US DollarIEA International Energy Agency VLCC Very large crude carrierIMF International Monetary Fund WS WorldscaleIMO International Maritime Organization WTO World Trade Organizationin. Inch YR, YRS Year, YearsITF International Transport Workers Federationkm Kilometreloa Length overall Symbolslbs Pounds ... Data not availableLDT Light displacement tons - NilLDC Less Developed Countries 0/0.0 Less than half of unit employedLNG Liquefied Natural Gas 1995-2004 From 1995 to 2004 inclusiveLPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas 2002/03 Crop year, fiscal year etc., beginningLR/Fairplay Lloyd’s Register - Fairplay in 2002 and terminating in 2003LT Long tonm Metre Billions means a thousand millionmbd Million barrel per day Detailed items in tables do not necessarily add to totalsmdo Marine diesel oil because of roundingMED MediterraneanMfA Marine fishing areamill MillionM/T Motor tankerMT Metric tonsmtd per ton fob deliveredmth Month For further explanation (e.g. Glossary)mtw Per ton ex wharf please visit: www.isl.org/infoline2 SSMR April 2011
  • 5. Contents – Comment and Statistical Tables www.isl.org Page ISL Comment – World Bulk Carrier Market 5-14 (1) WORLD BULK CARRIER FLEET 1.1 Bulk Carrier Fleet Development ............................................................................... 5 1.2 Age Profile of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet ................................................................. 5 1.3 Size Dimensions of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet ......................................................... 6 1.4 Ownership Patterns of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet ..................................................... 7 (2) FUNDAMENTALS OF THE BULK CARRIER MARKET 2.1 Major Dry Bulk Commodities – Production, Consumption and Trade Patterns .................. 8 2.2 Global Insight – Major Bulk Commodities Outlook Until 2013 ........................................ 9 2.3 Seaborne Bulk Trade Development .......................................................................... 10 2.4 Dry Bulk Port Traffic – Regional Highlights 2011 ......................................................... 10 2.5 Dry Bulk Market – Freight Rates and Prices ............................................................... 12 (3) FUTURE BULK CARRIER TONNAGE SUPPLY 3 Future Bulk Carrier Tonnage Supply ......................................................................... 13 (4) THE SHIPBUILDING MARKET FOR BULK CARRIERS 4.1 New Orders and Order Book Development ................................................................. 14 4.2 Leading Shipbuilding Countries ................................................................................ 15 SUMMARY TABLES - COMMENT Tab. 1 World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type 2007 and 2011 ........................................................ 5 Tab. 2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Tonnage Reductions by Type 2005 – 2010 ............................ 5 Tab. 3 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Additions (Newbuildings) by Type 2007-2010 ........................ 6 Tab. 4 World Bulk Carrier Fleet and Order Book by Size 2011 ................................................ 6 Tab. 5 Largest Bulk Carriers by Type 2011 ......................................................................... 6 Tab. 6 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Top Registered Flags 2007 and 2011 .................................... 7 Tab. 7 World Bulk Carrier Tonnage Registered for Panama and Hong Kong According to Countries of Domicile 2007, 2010 and 2011 ................................................................................ 7 Tab. 8 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Controlled Tonnage of Major Shipping Nations 2007-2011 ....... 8 Tab. 9 World Seaborne Foreign Trade by Major Bulk Commodities and Regions 2003 – 2008 and Outlook 2013 .................................................................................................. 10 Tab. 10 World Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade by Major Commodities 2009 and Average Growth Rates 1993-2009 ............................................................................ 10 Tab. 11 Dry Bulk Traffic of Major Ports by Exporting and Importing Areas 2000-2010 .................. 11 Tab. 12 Total Coal and Iron Ore Trade in the World’s Largest Dry Bulk Ports by Port Regions 2005-2010 .................................................................................................. 12 Tab. 13 Coal and Iron Ore Imports of Major European Ports 2005-2010 .................................... 12 Tab. 14 Rate Level for Benchmark Bulk Carrier Trades 12/2008-12/2010 and 04/2011 ............... 13 Tab. 15 Demolition and Contracting Prices of Capesize Bulk Carriers 1999 - 2010 ....................... 13 Tab. 16 World Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type 2007 – 2011 ................................................... 14 Tab. 17 World Bulk Carrier Order Book by Major Countries of Build 2007 and 2011 ..................... 15 Tab. 18 Bulk Carrier Order Book - Delivery Schedule by Major Countries of Build 2010 ................ 15 FIGURES - COMMENT Fig. 1 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Annual Tonnage Changes 1992- 2011 .................................. 5 Fig. 2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Tonnage Additions and Reductions 1995 – 2010 .................... 5 Fig. 3 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Size Development 1992 – 2011 ........................................... 6 Fig. 4 Bulk Carrier Fleet - Tonnage Development of Major Shipping Nations 2007-2011 ............ 8 Fig. 5 World Steel Production by Area 1997-2010 ................................................................ 8 Fig. 6 Overview on Major Commodity Markets 2000-2009 .................................................... 9 Fig. 7 World Seaborne Trade of Major Dry Bulk Commodities 1980 – 2010 .............................. 10 Fig. 8 World Seaborne Trade of Iron Ore and Coal by Major Regions/Countries 2003-2009 ........ 11 Fig. 9 Total Coal and Iron Ore Trade in the World’s largest Dry Bulk Ports by Port Regions 2005-2010 ..................................................................................... 12 Fig. 10 Development of Dry Bulk Voyage Rates on the Tubarao to China Trade January 2003 – March 2011 .................................................................................... 13 Fig. 11 Monthly Development of Bulk Indices 2003-2011 ....................................................... 13 Fig. 12 World Bulk Carrier Fleet - Share of the Ordered Tonnage on the Existing Fleet 1999-2011 14 Fig. 13 Bulk Carrier Fleet - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage, Quarterly 2002 – 2011 ............ 14 Fig. 14 World Bulk Carrier Order Book, Quarterly 2003 – 2011 ............................................... 14 15-18 ISL InfoLine Special – World Bulk Carrier Market SSMR April 2011 3
  • 6. ISL Statistical Tables– World Bulk Carrier Market 19-42 (1) TOTAL BULK CARRIER FLEET 1.1 Key Figures on World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type and Size Class 2011 ............................ 19 1.2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet Development by Type 2007 - 2011 ......................................... 20 1.3 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Ownership Patterns ..................................................... 21 1.3.1 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Major Flags 2010 and 2011 ................................................ 21 1.3.2 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Country of Domicile 2011 ................................................... 22 1.3.3 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Registered Flag and Country of Domicile According to Country Groups and Type 2007 and 2011 ................................................ 23 1.3.4 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Registered Flag and Country of Domicile According to Regions and Type 2007 and 2011 .......................................................... 24 1.3.5 Total Bulk Carriers by Country Groups and Division of Age 2011 ................................... 25 1.3.6 Total Bulk Carriers Additions to Fleet by Top Countries of Domicile During 2007 - 2010 .... 25 1.3.7 Total Bulk Carriers by Size Class and Division of Age and Deliveries up to 2011 .............. 26 1.3.8 Total Bulk Carriers Fleet - Size Dimensions 2011 ........................................................ 26 1.4 Broken-up Bulk Carriers ........................................................................................ 27 1.4.1 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Type January 1999 - December 2010 ................................. 27 1.4.2 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Major Flags 1999 - 2010 ................................................... 27 1.4.3 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Size Class 1999 - 2010 ..................................................... 27 (2) BULK MARKET - SHIPPING COSTS AND PRICES 2.1 Second Hand Prices of Bulk Carriers, Average Values 2000 - 2010 ................................ 28 2.2 Contracting Prices for Newbuildings 2000 - 2010 ........................................................ 28 2.3 Demolition prices 2000 - 2010 ................................................................................. 28 (3) BULK MARKET - COMMODITIES, SEABORNE TRADE, PORTS COMMODITIES 3.1 Coal Production and Consumption ......................................................................... 29 3.1.1 World Coal Production by Country 2000 - 2009 .......................................................... 29 3.1.2 World Coal Consumption by Country 2000- 2009 ........................................................ 30 3.2 World Iron and Steel Production ........................................................................... 31 3.2.1 World Pig Iron Production by Selected Countries 1990, 2004 - 2009 .............................. 31 3.2.2 World Crude Steel Production by Country 2000 - 2009 ................................................ 32 3.3 World Total Grain Production and Trade ............................................................... 33 3.3.1 Production of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002 - 2009 ............................... 34 3.3.2 Import of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002/2004-2006/2009 and Forecast for 2009/2010 .......................................................................................... 34 3.3.3 Export of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002/2004-2006/2009 and Forecast for 2009/2010 .......................................................................................... 34 SEABORNE TRADE 3.4 Seaborne Coal Trade ............................................................................................. 35 3.5 Seaborne Iron Ore Trade ....................................................................................... 35 3.6 Seaborne Grain Trade ............................................................................................ 35 PORTS 3.7 World Dry Bulk Ports ............................................................................................. 36 3.7.1 Selected Major World Coal Ports - Traffic 2005 - 2010 ................................................. 36 3.7.2 Selected Major World Iron Ore Ports - Traffic 2005 - 2010 ........................................... 37 (4) FUTURE BULK CARRIER TONNAGE SUPPLY- WORLD BULK CARRIER ORDER BOOK 4.1 Existing World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type and Major Areas of Build 2011 ........................ 38 4.2 Bulk Carrier Order Book and New Orders by Type 2006 – 2011 .................................... 39 4.3 Order Book by Major Countries of Build and Type 2011 ............................................... 39 4.4 Bulk Carriers on Order by Type and Delivery Schedule 2011 ....................................... 40 4.5 Bulk Carriers on Order by Countries of Build and Delivery Schedule 2011 ....................... 40 4.6 Bulk Carriers on Order by Ship Yard and Delivery Schedule 2011 .................................. 40 4.7 Additions to the Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type and Major Countries of Build 2005 - 2010 ....................................................................... 41 4.8 Additions to the Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type and Major Countries of Domicile 2005 - 2010 ................................................................... 424 SSMR April 2011
  • 7. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.orgThis “short comment” is an excerpt from the “Analytical Comment” published in theISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) No 4 2011.The SSMR includes detailed statistical information concerning the “analytical focus”and provides approx. 30 monthly/quarterly market indicators (Market Review).For more information compare attached “contents” If you are interested in the complete publication covering all details (tables & figures), please contact our subscription department subscription@isl.org or you can order it via our webshop www.isl.org/shop All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of the editors. ISL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in "ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR)" (this is also true for the “Short Comment”) nor does it accept responsibility for errors or omissions or their consequences. SSMR April 2011 1
  • 8. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org Fig. 1: World bulk carrier fleet – annual tonnage changes as of January1 WORLD BULK CARRIER FLEET 2010/2011 1st, 1992-2011 (dwt- per cent) 17.0 18.0The year 2010 turned out to be rather disappointing for 16.0bulk carrier operators. While rate levels increased during 14.0the course of 2009 to reach reasonable levels towards the 12.0 10.0 8.9end of the year, the increase of capacity in 2010 was too 8.0 5.8 7.1 6.4 6.3 7.2strong to be covered by demand growth, leading to 4.7 4.7 6.0 3.1 3.4 3.7decline of rates. 4.0 1.7 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.0 0.4 0.0In early 2011, we see a huge oversupply of vessels in the 0.0bulk carrier segment. The future supply/demand balance -2.0 -1.3 -1.6in the bulk market is determined by a surprisingly high 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010contracting of newbuildings and a moderate volume ofbroken up tonnage. Tab. 1: World bulk carrier fleet by type as of January 1st, 2007 and 2011In 2010, at least 93 million dwt were reported as new 2007 2011 Av. growth Average sizebulker orders. At the same time a total of 79 million dwt mill mill rate 07-11 (1000 dwt)were delivered equal to a fleet increase of “historical” 17 Ship type No dwt No dwt No dwt 2007 2011per cent, while only 148 bulk carriers with 6.4 million dwt Bulk carriers 5758 345.1 7317 474.5 6.2 8.3 59.9 64.9 Other bulk carrier 1023 12.5 1264 49.5 5.4 41.1 12.2 39.2were reported as demolitions. OBO carriers 106 6.1 71 4.1 -9.5 -9.3 57.3 58.1Part of the high ordering activity in 2010 most likely goes Total 6887 364 8652 528 5.9 9.8 52.8 61.0back to orders that had been cancelled after the crisis.These cancellations amounted to 70 million dwt. At the Tab. 2: World bulk carrier fleet – tonnage reductions by type 2006-beginning of 2011, the resulting bulk carrier order book 2010reached 253 million dwt and represents about 48 per centof the fleet. Most of these vessels are due for delivery in 2006 2009 2010 dwt-% Ship type No mill dwt-% No of mill dwt-% No mill dwt-% changethe next two years. dwt share ships dwt share dwt share 09/10The current overcapacity and the strong fleet growth that Bulk carriers 54 2.5 87.1 254 10.2 86.6 133 6.2 95.9 -39.6can be expected during the next years make it highly Other bulk carriers 10 0.4 12.9 35 1.5 12.7 15 0.3 4.1 -82.6unlikely that rates will recover quickly. Total 64 2.8 100.0 286 11.8 100.0 148 6.4 100.0 -45.51.1 Bulk carrier fleet development Tab. 3: World bulk carrier fleet – additions (newbuildings) by type 2006-With an increase of 17 per cent in 2010, the total bulk 2010carrier fleet showed the highest growth ever. At the end of2010, the total bulk carrier fleet was composed of 8,652 2006 2009 2010 dwt-% Ship type No mill No mill No mill dwt changevessels with a capacity of 528 million dwt. dwt dwt dwt %- 09/10At the beginning of 2011, the following “Special types”, Bulk carriers 306 24.5 531 42.3 937 72.9 92.6 72.1 Other bulknamely sub-types specified by IHS Fairplay, can be carriers 9 0.2 37 1.1 50 5.8 7.4 427.3distinguished: Total 315 24.7 568 43.2 987 78.7 100.0 82.3There have been massive deliveries in 2010. Comparedwith 2009 figures, the total world bulk fleet increased by Fig. 2: World bulk carrier fleet – size development as of January 1st,about 77 million dwt to 528 million dwt. Thus, the bulk 1990-2009 (average dwt)carrier fleet continued its extraordinary growth path since 650002004. 60000Fleet development trends can be summarised as follows: av. dwt size 55000 Deliveries of new bulk tonnage amounted to 50000 historical 78.7 million dwt during 2010, the biggest delivery year ever. For comparison: The average 45000 volume of deliveries in the last decade amounted to 40000 21 million dwt per year. 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 The average ship size of the new deliveries in 2010 was about 80,000 dwt. Sources: If not otherwise mentioned, the source for tables and figures concerning the Over the last 12 months, the capesize fleet (over world merchant fleet and order book information is “ISL based on IHS Fairplay”, please quote accordingly. In general merchant fleet data refer to 80,000 dwt) has increased by at least 26 per cent in ships of 300 gt and over. dwt, whereas the Panamax fleet (60-80,000 dwt) Explanatory notes: increased by only 4.1 per cent and the Handy Bulker The “total bulk carrier fleet” includes Bulk carriers and Ore/Bulk/Oil carriers (OBOs). Bulk carriers: include – Bulk carriers, ore carriers and other bulk fleet (10-40,000 dwt) by 6.4 per cent. carriers like: Aggregates carriers, Cement carriers, Wood chip carriers, Urea carriers, Limestone carriers Alumina carriers, Refined sugar carriers, During 2010, a further five million dwt of oil tanker Powder carriers. OBO carriers include Bulk/oil carriers and Ore/oil carriers. tonnage were converted to bulk carriers. Fig. 3: Bulk carrier fleet – tonnage development of major shipping SSMR April 2011 5
  • 9. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org nations (controlled tonnage) as of January 1st, 2007-2011 (dwt 148 bulk carriers with 6.4 million dwt were sold to – yearly average growth rate) breakers, compared to 286 vessels with 11.8 million dwt a year earlier. This is only 1.4 per cent of the 125.0 fleet. 100.0 Between 2007 and 2011, the bulk carrier fleet expanded on average by 9.8 per cent per year in Japan 75.0 mill dwt 2011 terms of deadweight tonnage and the number of Greece China, PR of carriers by 5.9 per cent. 50.0 Korea, Rep. of During the period 2006-2010 2,540 bulk carriers with 194 million dwt were added to the trading fleet. 25.0 In the same period, only 609 bulk carriers with 25 Germany million dwt were reported to be broken-up. 0.0 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0 average annual dwt growth 2007- 2011 in %1.2 Size dimensions of the world bulk carrier fleet Ships of 1,000 gt and overThe average size of bulk carriers increased from 43,500 Fig. 4: World steel production by area 1994-2011 (a)dwt in 1990 to 61,000 dwt at the beginning of 2011.Looking at the new deliveries, there is a trend to larger 1400 Others CISunits, at least 464 Capesize carriers entering the fleet in the 1200 North America EU-15past five years were attributable to size classes above 1000 Asia150,000 dwt. Altogether, the world bulk carrier fleetcomprised 1,023 of these very large units. mill tonnes 800During the next years, the increasing importance of larger 600size classes will continue. The average size of bulk carriers 400on order is over 86,000 dwt. The ordered tonnage 200concentrates on bulk carriers in the Capesize segmentabove 80,000 dwt, thereof 518 vessels with a capacity of 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010150,000 dwt and above. ISL, based on International Iron and Steel Institute; (a): 2011 estimated2 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE BULK CARRIER MARKET Fig. 5: Overview on major commodity markets 1996-2009 (Tonne- 2010/2011 based Index 1996 = 100) 220 2202.1 Major dry bulk commodities – production, coal consumption coal production 200 consumption and trade patterns 200 China ChinaThe strong and steady growth of bulk tonnage, as well as 180 1.6 OECD 180 OECDeconomic uncertainty in several industrialized countries 160 World World 160like EU, US and Japan, are expected to keep dry bulkshipping rates depressed. The supply growth in available 140 140capacity exceeds the demand growth for raw materials by 120 120far. However, due to changing regional patterns ofproduction and consumption of raw materials, seaborne 100 100trade may increase more strongly. In addition, transport 80distances for major bulk commodities such as ore and coal 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 80 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008are increasing. 1200 420 iron ore importsWorld crude steel production jumped 15.2 per cent from iron ore production2009 to 2010. Most recent statistics of the International 1000 370 China ChinaIron and Steel Institute (IISI) indicate that China had a 320 Australia 800 OECDshare of 44.5 per cent of the 1.4 billion tonnes world steel Brazil Worldproduction. China’s average yearly production growth in 270 600 Worldthe period 2001-2010 was 17 per cent. Compared with 220this development, the year on year change in 2010 reached 400a rather moderate 9.3 per cent, but one has to keep in 170mind that China was the only main steel producer that had 200 120increased production in 2009. The EU countries showed asteel production growth of around 20 per cent across the 0 70board, but they are still short of their 2008 production 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008volumes. ISL, based on WTO, World Trade Statistics 2010 Tab. 4: Dry bulk traffic of major ports by exporting and importing6 SSMR April 2011
  • 10. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org areas (port regions) 1999-2009 (mill tonnes, per cent)According to preliminary statistics of the AustralianBureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, world No average an. of growth in % % share of totaliron ore trade in 2010 exceeded 1.1 billion tons, of which Port regions (a) Ports 99-04 04-09 1999 2009the lion’s share went to China. The People’s Republic Exporting areas 53 6.0 5.4 100.0 100.0imported 692 million tons of ore, an increase of 8.6 per Oceania 16 5.8 6.9 52.5 55.6 South America 23 8.5 4.3 29.7 31.6cent compared to the 637 million which were supplied in Africa 14 2.0 2.5 17.8 12.82009. At the same time, China is one of the largest iron Importing Areas 80 2.6 -0.4 100.0 100.0ore producing countries in the world. North Range/UK 30 1.8 -3.9 29.8 23.8 Far East 13 3.6 -0.3 31.4 32.8On the export side, the top four exporting countries, US 15 -0.8 0.1 26.1 22.6namely Australia, Brazil, India and South Africa, exported South East Asia 22 8.2 4.2 12.8 20.8a combined 830 million tons of iron ore exports in 2010, (a) South East Asia: India, Pakistan, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines; North Range: 10 major Northequal to a market share of 80 per cent. Range ports (Europe) ISL Port Data Base 20112.2 Trade in major bulk commodities 2009/2010 and short term outlook Fig. 6: Quarterly iron ore and coal traffic of major exporting ports by regions 2009-2011 (1st quarter)World seaborne iron ore trade nearly doubled during thepast ten years, reaching 1.07 billion tonnes in 2009. 40.0 Iron ore growth over same quarter prev. yearAlmost three quarters of this growth (manifested in an 30.0average growth of 25 per cent per annum) were 20.0attributable to Chinese imports. Although nearby 10.0Australia is the most important exporter for China, South 0.0American iron ore was also used to cover demand in the -10.0Far East, leading to rising long haul transports of raw Australia Brazil -20.0materials. -30.02.3 Dry bulk port traffic – regional highlights 2009/2010 40.0 growth over same quarter prev. yearThe development of seaborne trade in major bulk Coal 30.0commodities is mirrored in the development of the major 20.0 Australia South Africaexporting and importing ports. 10.0Between 2009 and 2010, the world’s largest ports’ dry bulk 0.0traffic recovered and grew overproportionally. Due to -10.0strong Chinese demand for iron ore and, more recently, -20.0 -30.0for coal, Australian and Brazilian ports of loading wereincreasingly busy and show, if there were no problemscaused by administrative barriers or technical problems, ISL Port Data Base 2011; Brazil: total exports, based on Ministry ofconsistently double digit growth rates (compare Table 10). Development, Industry and Foreign TradeLeading exporting bulk portsThe world’s largest dry bulk port, the port ofQinhuangdao, handled 224 million tonnes of coal in 2010,up 8.6 per cent from 2009. While demand development Tonnage additions/reductions:was mixed in the Asian OECD countries, China’s coal Additions (newbuildings) entering the fleet refer to the fleet data of the following year. Reductions (broken-up) tonnage refer to the fleet data of theconsumption actually increased as described above. respective year.The Australian ports of Newcastle, Hay Point and Explanatory note – Bulk carrier dwt-size groupingGladstone together loaded 263 million tonnes of coal in Handysize: 10,000 - 39,999 dwtthe fiscal year ending June 2010, approximately 29 million Handymax: 40,000 - 49,999 dwt Supramax: 50,000 –59,999 dwttons more than in 2009, equal to a growth of 12.2 per Panamax: 60,000 - 79,999 dwtcent. Capesize: >= 80,000 dwtThe recovery of the US and Canadian heavy industries Explanatory notehelped some of the bulk ports located at the Great Lakes Major Open Registriesand the Saint Lawrence Seaway reach a better utilisation. Countries permitting the registration of ships owned by non-residents. In general, ISL figures on open registry flags are restricted to the top ten majorSept Iles, for example, shipped 23 million tons of coal in flags: Panama, Liberia, Bahamas, Malta, Marshall Islands, Cyprus, St.2010, a quarter more than during 2009. Vincent, Antigua & Barbuda, Bermuda and Cayman Islands. (01.01.2008).The Chinese demand for raw materials also helped Fig. 7: Development of dry bulk voyage rates on the Tubarao to Rotterdam trade January 2005 to March 2011Australian iron ore ports to consolidate their market SSMR April 2011 7
  • 11. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.orgposition. In the fiscal year 2009/2010, combined iron ore 110 100shipments in Port Hedland and Dampier grew by 16.5 per 90cent to 315 million tons. Interestingly, the three top 80Brazilian iron ore ports grew at the same pace up to the 70 US$/Tonnesame traffic volume. Their growth ranged between 31.2 60per cent for Tubarao (118 million tons in 2010) and 6.3 50 40per cent for Sepetiba (88 million tons). Together with the 30port of Itaqui (another 110 million tons) they serve 20especially the European market. 10Traffic rebound 2009/2010 0 01.05 01.06 01.07 01.08 01.09 01.10 01.11The quarterly development of bulk traffic of major ISL based on Fearnleysexporting ports reveals the impact of China’s increaseddemand in 2010. Iron ore exports of the three major Fig. 8: Monthly development of bulk indices 2005-2011Australian ports actually increased by 7.3 per cent in the 18000 Baltic Dry Indexcalendar year 2010. The record volume of 86.9 million 16000tonnes loaded during the last quarter of 2010 was even 8.8 14000 Baltic Panmax Indexper cent above the respective volume of 2009. Baltic Capesize Index 12000The top Brazilian ports outperformed these results and 10000climbed 27.5 per cent during the four quarters in 2010. In 8000total, Tubarao, Sepetiba and Itaqui shipped 327 million 6000tons in 2010. 4000Coal shipments showed a similar development, though on 2000a lower level. During 2010, China’s increasing imports of 0coal enabled Australian ports to let their coal shipments 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011rise by 8.8 per cent, while South Africa’s port of RichardsBay saw an increase in demand of 28 per cent (see Figure ISL based on Baltic Exchange7).2.4 Dry bulk market – freight rates and pricesTime charter rates SSMR Guide to relevant market information:Oversupply issues have plagued the dry bulk market since Fearnleys: www.fearnleys.com Platou: Platou Monthly, Platou Report: www.platou.commid-2010. In 2009, these oversupplies were to a large Barry Rogliano Salles: BRS online market information:extent cushioned by cancelled orders, China’s healthy www.brs-paris.com ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook 2010growth and rising demand for foreign coal, and a high Esso – Oeldorado: www.esso.chnumber of demolitions. Since last year’s autumn, a huge BP – Statistical Review of World Energy http://www.bp.com EIA Energy Information Administration: www.eia.doe.govnumber of pre-crisis orders came into service and still will International Grains Council: www.igc.org.ukhit the waters in the next two years to come, as it normally IHS Global Insight: World Trade Servicetakes three years for a ship to be delivered after ordering. IHS Global Insights World Trade Service provides clients with the mostThese deliveries put pressure on the market and keep dry comprehensive view of international trading markets and commodities.bulk shipping rates from recuperating. Forecasts are updated on a quarterly schedule and are delivered electronically via the Internet.Even though the seaborne sector sees a pick-up in global Exports by Country/Region with Trade Partner Regions/Countries Imports by Country/Region from Trade Partner Regions/Countriesdemand for coal and iron ore, the enormous rise in Real Value of Trade and Nominal Value of Tradeavailable vessels led to decreasing rate levels. More History for Total Value Data: since 1980. History for Value by Volume: since 1995.recently, shipping rates have oscillated around rather lowlevels. ISL Port Data BaseDemolition, second hand and contracting prices The ISL Port Data Base contains structured, comparable data from 1980 onwards for approximately 400 leading world ports. This unique dataThe bulk sector recently had to absorb the highest amount base is made possible by our network of port partners throughout the world providing the broad information for our annual ISL Port Data Baseof new ships ever. Moreover, ships totalling 253 million Survey. Since 2005, ports can provide their data via our onlinedwt are on order, including 31 bulkers for Vale carrying questionnaire.400,000 dwt each coming afloat in 2013 to serve China. Cargo traffic and commodities (154 items) Total cargo trafficDemolition prices during the last year react counter- Loading categories Major bulk commoditiescyclically. Normally relatively low scrapping prices should Cargo traffic by continentsbe due, but because of increasing steel prices and the Container traffic by continent (55 items)Pakistani scrapping yards back in service after closing due TEU (laden/empty) Containerised cargo (tons)to new environmental laws, scrapping prices were around Degree of containerisation8 SSMR April 2011
  • 12. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org25 per cent higher than one year before. Broken-up bulk Fig. 9: World bulk carrier fleet - share of ordered tonnage (dwt) oncarrier tonnage reached a volume of only 6.4 million dwt existing fleet as of January 1st, 2001-2011in 2010, but analysts expect a gigantic 22 million dwt to be 80scrapped this year in prospect of rates still at the bottom. 70 orderbook dwt % of fleet 60 503 THE SHIPBUILDING MARKET FOR BULK 40 CARRIERS/FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY 30 203.1 New orders and order book development 10In 2010, ordering activity was surprisingly strong in the 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011bulk carrier segment, knowing that the order volume wasalready at a high level. After the rapid decline inshipbuilding orders in 2009 with only 47 million dwt at Fig. 10: World bulk carrier fleet - new orders and broken-upleast 93 million dwt were reported as new orders in 2010 tonnage, quarterly 2004- 2010 (mill dwt)(incl. late news from previous years). Though some ofthese reported orders may actually be contracts that had 60.0 Broken-uppreviously been cancelled or resold, the high number of 50.0 New orders‘fresh orders’ exceeds experts’ expectations by far. 40.0In early 2011, the order book for bulk carriers comprised 30.0 mill dwt2,944 carriers with 57 million cgt (253 million dwt). The 20.0dwt-share of the ordered tonnage in the existing bulk 10.0carrier fleet stood at 48 per cent. These figures indicate 0.0huge overcapacities in the coming years. Around 33 10.0million cgt (144 million dwt) of new bulk carrier tonnage 04/I 04/III 05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III 10/I 10/IIIis due for delivery in 2011, which represents more thanhalf of the ordered tonnage. Provided that these ships will Fig. 11: World bulk carrier order book, quarterly 2004- 2011be delivered as scheduled, the new deliveries will lead to a (mill cgt)fleet increase of about 20 per cent until the end of 2011. 70However, it is expected that some of the orders will be 60stretched, and there may still be further cancellations. 50 40 mill cgt3.2 Leading shipbuilding countries 30At the beginning of 2011, 99.2 per cent of the total bulk 20carrier tonnage on order was attributable to yards in Asia(China, Japan, South Korea). The Asian dominance is not 10only reflected in the order book at the beginning of 2011, 0but also in the existing world bulk carrier fleet. Only 6.4 04/I 05/I 06/I 07/I 08/I 09/I 10/I 11/Iper cent of the existing bulk carrier tonnage was not builton Asian yards. Statistical details Broken-up bulk carriers p. 29Looking at the order book end of 2010, China has Second hand and newbuilding prices p. 30 Demolition prices p. 30strengthened its leading position and is in the first rank Market reviewwith 29.6 million cgt equal to 51.3 per cent of the total Freight and charter market p. 55– 65 Shipping prices and costs p. 67 – 69world bulk carrier order book, followed by Japan with SSMR InfoLine Special12.1 million cgt (21.0 per cent) and Korea with 10.9 Statistical details “The world bulk carrier order book”million cgt (18.9 per cent). Besides the Philippines (3.9 per Bulk carriers on order by type p. 39cent), all other shipbuilding countries had a share of less Bulk carriers on order by type and delivery schedule p. 40 New bulk carrier orders by type and major countriesthan 3 per cent. The European shipyards, organised in of build p. 41CESA, hold a cgt market share of only 0.7 per cent, New bulk carrier orders by type and major countries of domicile p. 42slightly lower than in 2000 (1.0 per cent). According to Explanatory noteIHS Fairplay, about 200 yards are currently involved in The compensated gross tons (cgt) concept was first devised by shipbuilderbulk carrier shipbuilding. Hyundai is the largest associations, and adopted by the OECD Council Working Party on Shipbuilding (WP6), in the 1970s to provide a more accurate measure ofshipbuilder for bulk carriers. shipyard activity than could be achieved by the usual gross ton (gt) and deadweight ton (dwt) measures. The compensated gross tons (cgt) is calculated by multiplying the tonnage of a ship by a coefficient, which is determined according to type and size for a particular ship. Cgt is used as an indicator of the volume of work that is necessary to build a given ship. The new compensated gross ton system (cgt) coefficient for a 10,000 gt bulk carrier is 7,987 cgt. SSMR April 2011 9
  • 13. www.infoline.isl.org infoline@isl.orgPublications & Databases ISL InfoLIne IS your reSource of up-to-date market InformatIon Orders pubLIcatIon ServIceS ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review www.isl.org/shop ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook eMail: subscription@isl.org ISL Monthly Container Port Monitor ISL Book Series/Textbooks Phone: +49/4 21/2 20 96-0 ISL Lectures/Contributions and Presentations Studien aus dem ISL (in German Language) Enquiries Databases Fleet Databases Numerous databases used for market analyses, statistical publications, information services and customers enquiries. eMail: infoline@isl.org World Merchant Fleet Data Bases Phone: +49/4 21/2 20 96-27 ISL Port Database ISL Port Database We advISe and Inform faSt, comprehenSIveLy and profeSSIonaLLy about marketS, InduStrIeS and buSIneSSeS. eMail: portbase@isl.org Phone: +49/4 21/2 20 96-33 ISL Information Centre/Library is the leading centre for maritime information and documentation. As a central information spot, it has international literature and economic data at its disposal.Information Centre/Library Subjects - Shipping and Ports - Transport, Logistics The total stock of our Reference - Shipbuilding and Supply Industry - Information and library amounts to approx. - Trade and Industry Communication 125,000 volumes, 31,000 - Systems within Logistics monographs, 250 specialist journals and newspapers (total Literature data base ISL-SEABASE The literature database ISL-SEABASE serves the public with stock approx. 61,000 volumes) more than 100,000 bibliographic records (state 01/2011) as an important pool of knowledge for the industry, research and Enquiries by science. eMail: library@isl.org Services - Short Information - Special Client Profiles Phone: +49/4 21/2 20 96-44/46 - Investigations about Literature - Complete Text Service and Facts (within the scope of copyright) Hours of business Mo - Th 9:00 - 16:30 CET Online searches at www.isl.org/library Fr 9:00 - 14:30 CET
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