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  • 1. NAME: RACHNA MANTRYCOURSE: BBA (H)SUPERVISOR: MS. S. LAKSHMY TITLE: ANALYSIS OF THE RATE OF ROAD ACCIDENTS TAKING PLACE IN INDIA. 1
  • 2. Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Graduate Degree in BACHELOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION (HONOURS) Of Jadavpur University At J.D. Birla Institute (Department of management) KolkataDECLARATIONSI declare the following:The word count of the dissertation is 9061 wordsThe material contained in this dissertation is the end result of my own work. Dueacknowledgement has been given in the bibliography and references to all sources bethey printed, electronic or personal.I am aware that my dissertation may be submitted to a plagiarism detection service whereit will be stored in a database and compared against work submitted from this institute orfrom any other institutions.In the event that there is a high degree of similarity in content detected, furtherinvestigations may lead to disciplinary actions including the cancellation of my degreeaccording to Jadavpur University rules and regulations.I declare that ethical issues have been considered, evaluated and appropriately addressedin this research.I agree to an entire electronic copy or sections of the dissertation to being placed on the e-learning portal, if deemed appropriate, to allow future students the opportunity to seeexamples of past dissertations and to be able to print and download copies if they sodesire.SIGNED:DATE:NAME:ROLL NO / BATCH:SUPERVISOR: 2
  • 3. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTI would like to thank my mentor, Ms.S.Lakshmy, with heartiest respect and gratitude, forguiding me through my project and assisting me throughout the data analysis of theproject.I express my thanks to the Director of J.D. Birla institute, Dr. Asit Dutta, for giving methe opportunity to gather such wonderful learning experience.I am also obliged to my college librarians Mr. Santanu Mondal, Mr. Masiur Rehman andMr. Swapan Kr. Ber who have assisted me in finding various references for datacollection.I also thank my friends at college for their assistance, on and off campus. 3
  • 4. AbstractThis project attempts to focus on the magnitude of the Road Accidents in India. The purposeof this publication is to present an in depth analysis and overview of the road accidents inIndia. The data and analysis on road accidents contained in this volume will help createawareness and assist in informed decision making in the area of road safety. Success ofroad safety initiatives requires active cooperation and participation of all stakeholders andthese initiatives should be taken so as to make the roads of India safe for all its inhabitants. 4
  • 5. INDEXTABLE OF CONTENTS Pg No. 1. INTRODUCTION 07-09 a. Role of Roads 7 b. Road Network of India 7-9 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 10-19 a. History of roads 10 b. Growth of Road Sector 10-11 c. Trend in Road Traffic 11-12 d. Classification of Roads 12-15 e. Allocation to Roads over five year plans 15 f. Main issues 16 g. Institutional initiative 16-17 h. Road Accidents 17 5
  • 6. i. Cost of Road Accidents 17-18 j. Trends in Accident injuries, fatalities, Motor vehicles and road network 18 k. Long term trends 18-193. HYPOTHESIS 204. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 21-23 a. Introduction 21-22 b. Use of Statistical Tools 22-235. DATA ANALYSIS 24-276. RESULTS AND FINDINGS a. Results 28 b. Road Safety Measures 28-30 c. Recommendation 30-317. CONCLUSION 32 a. Future Scope 32 b. Limitations 328. ANNEXURE 33-439. BIBLIOGRAPHY 44 6
  • 7. 1. INTRODUCTION1(a). ROLE OF ROADS:1. India is a vast country with a land area of 3,287,240 sq Km, a population of 115 croresliving in 638,365 villages and 5169 towns and cities, where the primary mode of physicalconnectivity is road transport. Road infrastructure anchors the economy and the societyby allowing human movement as well as production and exchange of goods and services.The role and importance of infrastructure for an economy is like that of the foundation toa building and the level of infrastructure availability is one of the key indices of the levelof economic development and quality of life of the citizens of a country. Infrastructure ingeneral and road infrastructure in particular plays a pivotal role in promoting economicgrowth and making this growth more inclusive by sharing the benefits of growth withpoorer groups and communities, particularly in remote and isolated areas, by facilitatingtheir access to basic services and by helping in increasing their income generatingcapacity.1(b). ROAD NETWORK IN INDIA: 7
  • 8. 2. India has a road network of over 3.314 million kilometres (2.059 million miles) ofroadway, making it the third largest road network in the world. At 0.66 km of highwayper square kilometer of land the density of India’s highway network is higher than that ofthe United States (0.65) and far higher than that of Chinas (0.16) or Brazils (0.20). As of2002, only 47.3% of the network consisted of paved roads.Historically, the funds setaside for the maintenance and expansion of the road network have been insufficient, butmajor efforts are currently underway to modernize the countrys road infrastructure. Indiaplans to spend approximately US$70 Billion over the next three years.Some of the major projects that are being implemented include the National HighwaysDevelopment Project and the Mumbai-Pune Expressway. According to recent estimatesby Goldman Sachs, India will need to spend US$1.7 trillion on infrastructure projectsover the next decade to boost economic growth. In an effort to accomplish this, thegovernment of India is attempting to promote foreign investment in road projects byoffering financial incentives such as toll rights to developers. However, due to risingprices of petroleum, being a Non-renewable resource, foreign investors have urged thegovernment to focus instead on improving public transport like the Indian Railways andrapid transit systems.3. At the time of independence, the national government was unanimous in accepting that amuch wider base of infrastructure was necessary for economic development of thiscountry. The successive plans were formulated on such lines that the infrastructuralsectors claimed the lion’s share of the plan outlays and actual expenditures. If thefirst ten five-year plans and the annual plans are considered together, the TotalAllocated Spending has been Rs. 33954 Billion, of which the infrastructural sectorsaccounted for Rs. 22452 Billion, i.e. more than 66% of the total allocation. Since1991-92, a number of wide-ranging reforms have been carried out in the infrastructuresector covering roads and highways development, civil aviation, telecommunications. Ithas been because of such paramount importance being attached to the developmentof the infrastructure in our economic planning that long strides have been made inthe physical availability of such facilities in India. 8
  • 9. 4. Expansion in road network, motorization and urbanization in the country has beenaccompanied by a rise in road accidents leading to road traffic injuries (RTIs) andfatalities as a major public health concern. Today road traffic injuries are one of theleading causes of deaths, disabilities and hospitalizations with severe socioeconomiccosts across the world. Studies of the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP)per capita, growth of motor vehicles and road fatalities, have shown that fatality ratesincrease as GDP increases at relatively low levels of GDP per capita, but then start todecline with continued GDP growth.The peak position on this inverted U-shaped curve is not, however, immutable. Thechallenge now is to bring about a shift in the relationship between economic growth androad fatalities, so that developing countries benefit from a much earlier improvement thantraditional models predict based on the experience of high-income countries.Occurrence of accident is an outcome of interplay of a number of factors, which amongothers include length of road network, vehicle population, human population andAdherence/Enforcement of road safety regulations etc. Higher exposure to road accidentrisk may be mitigated by behavioral standards (adherence to road safety regulations) andpolicy intervention (enforcement).The report has been chronologically done in the following manner:Sec 1: IntroductionSec 2: Literature ReviewSec 3: HypothesisSec 4: Research MethodologySec 5: Data AnalysisSec 6: Results and FindingsSec 7: Conclusion 9
  • 10. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW2(a).HISTORY:2. The first evidence of road development in the Indian subcontinent can be traced back toapproximately 4000 BC from the ancient cities of Harrapa and Mohenjodaro of the IndusValley Civilization. Around the 1st Century AD, the ancient Silk Road came into being,which passed through northern India and China. Ruling emperors and monarchs ofancient India constructed numerous brick roads in the cities. One of the most famoushighways of medieval India is the Grand Trunk Road. The Grand Trunk Road began inSonargaon near Dhaka in Bangladesh and ended at Peshawar in modern-day Pakistan. InIndia, it linked several important cities from Kolkata in the east to Amritsar in the west,while passing through the cities of Patna, Varanasi, Kanpur, Agra, Delhi, Panipat, Pipli,Ambala, Rajpura, Ludhiana, and Jalandhar. During the colonial period in the 19thcentury, the British upgraded the existing highway network and built roads in manytreacherous areas such as the Western Ghats.2(b). GROWTH OF ROAD SECTOR:5. As per report Infrastructure in India by Elizabeth Montgomery ofPricewaterhouseCoopers, the Indian economy is booming, with rates of GrossDomestic Product (GDP) growth exceeding 8% every year since 2003/04. This ongoinggrowth is due to rapidly developing services and manufacturing sectors, increasing 10
  • 11. consumer demand (largely driven by increased spending by India’s middle class) andgovernment commitments to rejuvenate the agricultural sector and improve the economicconditions of India’s rural population. In the fiscal year ending March 2008, India’s GDPgrew by more than 9%. This robust rate of expansion was initially forecast to continue inthe 2008-2009 fiscal year, but the onset of global recession and its cascading effectslowed down the growth rate to 6.5% to 7%, but that appears to be a short-runphenomenon. Even in the face of such a recession, the Government has singled outinfrastructure investment as particularly vital to facilitate a turnaround and accelerate thegrowth process. Indeed, even with a somewhat slower rate of growth, the Indian economyis still expanding significantly, and substantial investment in the infrastructure sectorcontinues to hold the key to sustaining India’s economic progress. The country’s capacityto absorb and benefit from new technology and industries depends on the availability,quality and efficiency of basic forms of infrastructure.6. The Tenth Five Year Plan brings out the importance of roads as follows, “Roads are thekey to the development of an economy. A good road network constitutes the basicinfrastructure that propels the development process through connectivity and opening upthe backward regions to trade and investment. Roads also play a key role in inter-modaltransport development, establishing links with airports, railway stations and ports. Inaddition, they have an important role in promoting national integration, which isparticularly important in a large country like India”.2(c). TREND IN ROAD TRAFFIC:7. Freight transport by road has risen from 6 billion tonne km (BTK) in 1951 to 400 BTKin 1995 and passenger traffic has risen from 23 billion-passenger km (BPK) to 1,500BPK during the same period. Freight and passenger traffic are expected to increase to 800BTK and 3,000 BPK respectively by the year 2001. The annual growth of road traffic isexpected to be 9 to 10%. Current boom in the automobile sector may even increase thefuture growth rate of road traffic. While the traffic has been growing at a fast pace, it hasnot been possible to provide matching investment in the road sector, due to the competingdemands from other sectors, especially the social sectors, and this has led to a large 11
  • 12. number of deficiencies in the network. Many sections of the highways are in need ofcapacity augmentation, pavement strengthening, rehabilitation of bridges, improvementof riding quality, provision of traffic safety measures, etc. There are congested roadsections passing through towns where bypasses are required. Many old bridges are inneed of rehabilitation/replacement along with capacity augmentation. NHs are the mainarterial roads which run through the length and breadth of the country connecting ports,state capitals, industrial and tourist centers and neighbouring countries.NHs constitute less than 2% of the total road network, but carry nearly 40% of the totalroad traffic.4. In economic terms, the cost of road crash injuries is estimated at roughly 1 percent ofgross national product (GNP) in low-income countries, 1.5 percent in middle-incomecountries and 2 percent in high-income countries. The direct economic costs of globalroad crashes have been estimated at US $ 518 Billion, with the costs in low incomecountries estimated at US $ 65 Billion (World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention,page 5, WHO, 2004). These estimates take account only of the direct economic costs –mainly lost productivity – rather than the full social costs often recognized byindustrialized countries. For India the socio-economic cost of road accidents in1999-2000 was estimated at 3 % of GDP (Tenth Five Year Plan).Incidentally, India holds the dubious distinction of registering the highest number of roadaccidents in the world. According to the experts at the National Transportation Planningand Research Centre (NTPRC) the number of road accidents in India is three times higherthan that prevailing in developed countries. The number of accidents for 1000 vehicles inIndia is as high as 35 while the figure ranges from 4 to 10 in developed countries.2(d). CLASSIFICATION OF ROADS:2. India has a large road network of over 3.314 million kilometers of roadways, making itthe second largest road network in the world. For the purpose of management andadministration, roads in India are divided into the following five categories:• National Highways (NH): These are main highways running through the length and breadth of the country connecting major ports, state capitals, large industrial and 12
  • 13. tourist centres, etc. National Highways in India are designated as NH followed by the highway number. The National Highway system is the primary road grid and is the direct responsibility of the Central Government. The National Highways are intended to facilitate medium and long distance inter-city passenger and freight traffic across the country.The traffic on National Highways has been growing due to the recent economic growthin India and the Government of India is taking steps to improve management techniquesto provide hindrance-free traffic movement by way of widening roads, grade separation,construction of bypasses, bridges, rail-road crossings, and utilizing the latesttechnologies. 8. Even though the National Highways represent only 2% of the total network length, they handle about 40% of the total road traffic. As per the Urban Land Institutes Infrastructure 2008: A competitive advantage report, "more than 90% of Indias 40,625 miles (65,000 km) of national highways are single or two-lane roads. The National Highways are further classified based on the width of carriageway of the Highway. Generally, in case of a single lane, the lane width is of 3.75 meters, while in case of multi-lane National Highways, each of the lanes have a width of 3.5 meters. As of February 2008, out of the total length, 14% have four or more lanes and about 59% have 2-lanes or are double-laned, while the rest (27%) of the National Highway network has single or intermediate lane.• Expressways: The Expressways of India make up approximately 200 km of the Indian National Highway System. Usually no two-wheelers, three-wheelers or tractor vehicles are allowed on these roads. Speed of upto 120 km/h can be maintained on these roads due to separate merging lanes and the lack of speed breakersso as to ensure smooth travel. Most of the existing expressways in India are toll roads. However, the National Highway System also consists of approximately 10,000 km of four-laned highways that do not feature full control of access. Currently, a massive project is underway to expand the highway network and the Government of India plans to add an additional 15600 km of expressways to the network by the year 2022. 13
  • 14. • State Highways (SH): State Highways refers to the numbered highways which are laid and maintained by the State Government. The are not related to National Highways and are not involved with the NHAI or the Central Government in any way. The State Highways usually are roads which link important cities, towns, district headquarters within the state and connecting them with National Highways or Highways of the neighbouring states. These highways provide connections to industries / places from key areas in the state making them more accessible. The State Highways carry the traffic along major centers within the State.• District Roads: District roads are classified into two categories- major district roads and other district roads. Major District Roads provide the secondary function of linkage between main roads and rural roads.• Rural Roads: The last link in the chain is rural roads. The rural roads form a substantial portion of the vast Indian road network. Rural connectivity is a key component of rural development and contributes significantly to generating higher agricultural incomes and productive employment opportunities besides promoting access to economic and social services. Studies show that rural roads have a significant impact on poverty reduction. Since the agricultural produce and the finished products of small-scale industries in rural areas are to be moved from the producing centres to the marketing centres, road connectivity is essential for rural population. 9. For the development of rural roads, Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) (or "Prime Minister Rural Roads Scheme"), was launched in December 2000 by the Government of India to provide connectivity to unconnected rural habitations as part of a poverty eradication measure. For its implementation, the Government of India is setting uniform technical and management standards and facilitating policy 14
  • 15. development and planning at State level in order to ensure sustainable management of the rural roads network. The scheme is to be implemented in phases wherein the number of roads under each phase would be governed by the population of habitations (hamlets). 6.For example, the initial phase would attempt to cover all inhabitations with a population of 1000. Following the 73rd Constitution Amendment Act, rural roads have been placed in the Eleventh Schedule and their upkeep has become the responsibility of the Panchayati Raj institutions (PRIs). It is expected that about 3,75,000 km of new road construction and 3,72,000 km of upgradation/renewal would be undertaken as part of the scheme. The construction cost is fully borne by the Government of India as a centrally sponsored scheme, while the State Governments are responsible for providing maintenance funds. As of May 24, 2007, more than 122,000 km of roads have been completed under PMGSY and work is in progress in projects covering another 1,00,000 km.2(e).ALLOCATION TO ROADS OVER THE FIVE YEAR PLANS:10. The allocation to road development over the various five-year plans is as follows:  First five-year Plan: Rs. 146 crores  Second Five Year Plan: Rs. 262 crores  Third Five Year Plan: Rs. 871 crores  Fourth Five Year Plan: Rs. 418 crores  Fifth Five Year Plan: Rs. 445 crores  Sixth Five Year Plan: Rs. 3438 crores  Seventh Five Year Plan: Rs. 5200 crores  Eighth Five Year Plan: Rs. 13210 crores  Ninth Five Year Plan: Rs. 48570 crores  Tenth Five Year Plan: Rs. 59490 crores  Eleventh Five Year Plan: Rs. 72530 crores2(f).MAIN ISSUES:2. The main roads in India are under huge pressure and in great need of modernization inorder to handle the increased requirements of the Indian economy. In addition tomaintenance, the expansion of the network and widening of existing roads is becomingincreasingly important. This would then enable the roads to handle increased traffic, and 15
  • 16. also allow for a corresponding increase in the average movement speed on Indias roads.Presently, lane capacity is low and only about 16% of Indias roads are four lanes orabove. In addition, approximately a quarter of all Indias highways are congested, in somecases reducing truck and bus speeds to 30-40 km/h (19-25 mph).12.Road maintenanceremains under-funded, and some 40 percent of villages in India lack access to all-weatherroads.Due to decades of bureaucratic and procedural difficulties, the road network has sufferedlong delays. Recently however, political leaders in India are making efforts to prioritizethe modernization and expansion of the road network. However, there are still otherenvironmental, logistical, and local issues contributing to delay in development of theroad infrastructure. For instance, although the government itself owns a wide corridoraround the center of roads called the Right of Way (ROW), over many years, poor andlandless people have built houses and other property along the roadside. Farmers whosefields adjoined the road had their crops encroach up to the side of the road. Further, otherresources are located along roadsides, whether they be trees, pathways to water resources,streams that were used for their water, etc. Trucking goods from Gurgaon to the port in 13.Mumbai can take up to 10 days. Taxes and bribes are common between state borders;Transparency International estimates that truckers pay annually US$5 billion in bribes.14. Although India has only 1% of the worlds vehicles, India has 8% of the worlds vehiclefatalities or 95,000 people, second only to China.11. Indias cities are extremely congested — the average bus speed is 6–10 km/h in manylarge cities. Because of the congestion in Indian roads the fuel efficiency of the vehiclesis also very low. This increases the overall fuel consumption of the country besidesresulting in heavy pollution since the engines run very inefficiently at such low speeds.15. However, despite their importance to the national economy, the road network in India isgrossly inadequate in various respects. The existing network is inadequate and is unableto handle high traffic density at many places and has poor riding quality. The main reasonfor these shortcomings is the inadequacy of funds for maintenance and improving thequality of the road network. Efforts are now underway to address these issues and 16
  • 17. improvement in the road network has been accorded a very high priority in developmentplanning in the country. To bridge the resource gap and to instill competitive efficiency,efforts are being made to associate the private sector with road projects. However, theinitial response has not been very encouraging and it is felt that more innovative methodsare needed to ensure greater participation of the private sector. Simultaneously, it is alsonecessary to prioritise road projects according to resource availability so that resourcesare not spread thinly among large number of projects leading to unwarranted delays.2(g).INSTITUTIONALINITIATIVES:16. Steps have been taken for restructuring and strengthening of National HighwaysAuthority of India (NHAI), which is the implementing agency for the National Highwaysprogramme. Institutional mechanisms have been established to address bottlenecksarising from delays in environmental clearance, land acquisition etc. A special focus isbeing provided for traffic management and safety related issues through the proposedDirectorate of Safety and Traffic Management. It is expected that the sum total of theseinitiatives should be able to deliver an efficient and safe highway network across thecountry.In order to specify the policy and regulatory framework on a fair and transparent basis, aModel Concession Agreement(MCA) for PPPs in national highways has been mandated.It is expected that this common framework, based on international best practices, willsignificantly increase the pace of project award as well as ensure an optimal balance ofrisk and reward among all project participants.2(h).ROAD ACCIDENTS:4. As per Ministry of Road Transport And Highways Government Of India,studies of the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, growth ofmotor vehicles and road fatalities, have shown that fatality rates increase as GDPincreases at relatively low levels of GDP per capita, but then start to decline withcontinued GDP growth. The peak position on this inverted U-shaped curve is not,however, immutable. The challenge now is to bring about a shift in the relationship 17
  • 18. between economic growth and road fatalities, so that developing countries benefit from amuch earlier improvement than traditional models predict based on the experience ofhigh-income countries.2(i).COST OF ROAD ACCIDENTS:4. Accidents carry high economic and social costs, which are not easy to ascertain. Thecost of road related injuries and accidents can be assessed in terms of (a) medical costs(b) other costs related to administrative, legal and police expenditure (c) collateraldamage in terms of damage to property and motor vehicle and (d) loss due to incomeforegone arising out of absence from work or impairment/disability or untimely death.Besides accident survivors often live poor quality of life and have to live with pain and 17.suffering which are difficult to estimate. In developing countries with very little assetownership and lack of credible social safety net, accidents adversely impact the welfareof dependents of accident victims. Hence it is imperative to assess the magnitude anddimensions of road accidents so as to assist in formulating road safety policies.18. In economic terms, the cost of road crash injuries is estimated at roughly 1 percent ofgross national product (GNP) in low-income countries, 1.5 percent in middle-incomecountries and 2 percent in high-income countries. The direct economic costs of globalroad crashes have been estimated at US $ 518 Billion, with the costs in low incomecountries estimated at US $ 65Billion (World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention,page 5, WHO, 2004). These estimates take account only of the direct economic costs –mainly lost productivity – rather than the full social costs often recognized byindustrialized countries. For India the socio-economic cost of road accidents in1999-2000 was estimated at 3 % of GDP.2(j).TRENDS IN ACCIDENTS, FATALITIES, INJURIES, MOTOR VEHICLESAND ROAD NETWORKS:4. Occurrence of accident is an outcome of interplay of a number of factors, which amongothers include length of road network, vehicle population, human population and 18
  • 19. adherence/enforcement of road safety regulations etc. Higher exposure to road accidentrisk may be mitigated by behavioral standards (adherence to road safety regulations) andpolicy intervention (enforcement).2(k).LONG TERM TRENDS:4. The Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in number of accidents, injuries, fatalitiesand motor vehicles (registered) have moderated during 1990s (1990-2000) after a spurtduring the 1980s (1980 to 1990) (Table 1). Moderation in the growth of accidents,fatalities and injuries during 1990s has taken place in the backdrop of lower growth in thenumber of registered vehicles and step up in the growth of road network. However,post-2000 (up to 2009) growth rate of fatalities has accelerated vis-à-vis the precedingdecade (1990-2000). 3. HYPOTHESISH0: b = 0 (no influence of external variables on the accident severity)H1: b ≠0(influence of external variables on the accident severity)The external variables taken into consideration are: total number of accidents, number ofpersons killed, number of persons injured and road length. 19
  • 20. 4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY4.(a). INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:19. Research Methodology is a way to systematically solve the research problem. It may beunderstood as a science of studying how research is done scientifically. In it we study thevarious steps that are generally adopted by a researcher in studying his research problemalong with the logic behind them. It is necessary for the researcher to know not only theresearch method/ techniques but also the methodology. Research methodology has manydimensions and research methods do constitute a part of the research methodology. Thescope of research methodology is wider than that of research methods. Thus, when wetalk of research methodology we not only talk about research methods but also considerthe logic behind the methods we use in the context of our research study and explain whywe are using a particular method or technique and why we are not using others so thatresearch results are capable of being evaluated either by the researcher himself or byothers. 20. There are basically two types of research: 20
  • 21.  QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH: It is based on the measurement of quantity or amount. It is applicable to phenomena that can be expressed in terms of quantity. In quantitative research your aim is to determine the relationship between one thing (an independent variable) and another (a dependent or outcome variable) in a population. Quantitative research designs are either descriptive (subjects usually measured once) or experimental (subjects measured before and after a treatment). A descriptive study establishes only associations between variables. An experiment establishes causality.  QUALITATIVE RESEARCH: Qualitative research seeks out the ‘why’, not the ‘how’ of its topic through the analysis of unstructured information – things like interview transcripts, open ended survey responses, emails, notes, feedback forms, photos and videos. It doesn’t just rely on statistics or numbers, which are the domain of quantitative researchers. Qualitative research is used to gain insight into peoples attitudes, behaviours, value systems, concerns, motivations, aspirations, culture or lifestyles. It’s used to inform business decisions, policy formation, communication and research. Focus groups, in-depth interviews, content analysis, ethnography, evaluation and semiotics are among the many formal approaches that are used, but qualitative research also involves the analysis of any unstructured material, including customer feedback forms, reports or media clips.This dissertation seeks to research and examine the importance of the development ofroads in relation to the growth and development of the Indian economy. The problemsrelating to the development of roads in India and a detailed analysis of the RoadAccidents taking place in India have also been examined. This research has beenundertaken with the usage of secondary data on which these statistical tools are usedpertain to: 21
  • 22.  CORRELATION: Correlation is a statistical measurement of the relationship between two variables. Possible correlations range from +1 to –1. A zero correlation indicates that there is no relationship between the variables. A correlation of –1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, meaning that as one variable goes up, the other goes down. A correlation of +1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, meaning that both variables move in the same direction together.  REGRESSION: regression is the determination of a statistical relationship between two or more variables. In simple regression, we have only 2 variables, one variable (defined as independent) is the cause of the behaviour of another one (defined as dependent variable). Regression can only interpret what exists physically, that is, there must be a physical way in which independent variable X can effect dependent variable Y.. the basic relationship between X and Y is given by: Y= a + bX.HYPOTHESIS:19. 20. A hypothesis is like a statement, in an essay it is usually a statement you write at thebeginning and the whole essay is about you proving that statement , with evidence andresearch etc. there are basically two types of hypothesis. They are:NULL HYPOTHESIS:A type of hypothesis used in statistics that proposes that no statistical significance existsin a set of given observations. The null hypothesis attempts to show that no variationexists between variables, or that a single variable is no different than zero. It is presumedto be true until statistical evidence nullifies it for an alternative hypothesis. The symbolused for null hypothesis is H0.ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS 22
  • 23. An alternative hypothesis is one that specifies that the null hypothesis is not true. Thealternative hypothesis is false when the null hypothesis is true, and true when the nullhypothesis is false.The symbol H 1 is used for the alternate hypothesis.  DIAGRAMATIC REPRESENTATION: 20. Various graphs such as bar graphs, column graphs, trend lines, and pie charts have been used to provide a systematic pictorial representation of the data and statistics of the range of road accidents taking place and the causes of these accidents.This research has been undertaken with the usage of secondary data. 5. DATA ANALYSIS  TABLE 1:From the quantitative data in the table we can see that the Compound annual GrowthRate (CAGR) in number of accidents, injuries, fatalities and motor vehicles (registered)have moderated during years 1990-2000 after a spurt during 1980s ie,1980-1990 (Table1). Moderation in growth of accidents, fatalities and injuries during 1990s has taken placein the backdrop of lower growth in the number of registered vehicles and setup in thegrowth of road networks. However, post year 2000 growth rate of fatalities haveaccelerated vis-à-vis the preceding decade (1990-2000).We see between years 1970-2009, the number of accidents have increased by 4.3 timeswith more than 7 fold increase in injuries and about 8.7 times increase in fatalities in thebackdrop of about 64 fold increase in road network.  TABLE 2, CHART 1 (A) and (B):During calendar year 2009, number of accidents reported at 4,86,384 was higher by0.35% compared with 4,84,704 accidents reported in the year 2008.In comparison, the number of persons killed as a result of road accidents at 1,25,660 washigher by 4.8% in 2009 compared with the preceding year. However, the number ofpersons injured declined to 5,15,458 (a fall of 1.5%). 23
  • 24. The total number of road accidents, injuries and deaths increased at CAGR of 2.5%,2.9%and 5.3% respectively between the years 2000-2009 as seen in Table 1.Table 2 also indicates that the severity of road accidents measured in terms of personskilled per 100 accidents, had also increased from 19.9 in 2001 to 25.8 in 2009.The total length of roads pertaining to the same year has also been represented here.Chart 1(A) shows the number of road accidents and length of roads in the form of a graphand Chart 1(B) indicates the number of accidents taking place and people injured andkilled in the accidents.We find the association between the road length and accident severity or number of roadaccidents and statistical tools have been used for the same.Correlation has been used to examine the degree of association between the accidentseverity and the length of roads. The degree of association is positive with the valueof 0.940569 which says that as the length of road increases the accident severity alsoincreases simultaneously .Correlation has also been done to examine the association between total number ofaccidents and the length of roads and the value is 0.94136, thus again a positiveassociation. Thus, greater the length of roads, greater prone it is being to total roadaccidents.Correlation has also been done to examine the association between the persons killed, andpersons injured on the road length, which also has a positive association and the value is0.952817 and 0.947205, therefore, greater the length of roads, more accidents will occurand therefore, greater number of persons killed and injured.Regression analysis has been done to find the influence of the independent factors (i.e,total number of accidents, number of persons killed, number of persons injured and roadlength) on the dependent factor (i.e. accident severity).At 95% confidence level, the following regression equation gives us the influence:y= 16.59236719 + -4.81223E-05 + 0.000194693 + 5.15365E-06 + 2.1752E-06With this equation a stated hypothesis has already been tested above. 24
  • 25. At 95% confidence level, if the P value is less than 0.05, the null hypothesis is rejected.From the multiple regressions, we try to show the influence of number of accidents,number of persons killed, number of persons injured, road length on the accident severityin India. From the output, it is seen that the multiple regression square is 0.99979342 andthe p value of :Total number of accidents is 0.00012082419, number of persons killed is 0.00012082419 ,number of persons injured is 0.02094701826, and road length is 0.02304089497, all are lessthan 0.05. Since, the p value of all the variables is less than 0.05, therefore, the nullhypothesis is rejected and alternate hypothesis is accepted.  TABLE 3:The quantitative data provided here shows the severity of road accidents in India State-wise. It shows the Number of persons killed (per 100) in accidents in 28 states as well as7 Union Territories of India. The data pertains to the years 2006-2009. We see that in theyear 2006, states like Mizoram and Uttarakhand rank the highest in severity of accidentsand leading to maximum people being killed, the same trend is seen in the year 2007 andin year 2008 and 2009 we see that Nagaland accounts for the maximum number ofpersons being killed in the road accidents.From the quantitative data provided about the Union territories, we see that accidentseverity leading to death of human lives is maximum in Dadra and Nagar Haveli in theyear 2009. We see that the national average in the number of persons killed is themaximum in the Year 2009 with 25.8.  TABLE 4(a) and 4(b) ,TABLE 5, CHART 2:The data here indicates the road accidents as per road classification. Table 4(a) shows thepercentage share in road accidents and number of persons killed and injured on NationalHighways and Table 4(b) shows the percentage share in road accidents road accidents,number of people killed and injured on State highways. 25
  • 26. From the data given here, National Highways accounted for 29.3% in total road accidentsand 36% in total number of persons killed in 2009. Similarly, State Highways accountedfor 23.8% of total accidents and a share of 27.1% in the total number of persons killed inroad accidents in 2009. In Table 5, the accidents, people killed and injured are shown ason National, State Highways and other roads pertaining to the year 2009. Highwayspermit greater speed resulting in relatively greater number of road accidents andfatalities. State wise breakup of accidents, injuries and deaths due to road accidents onstretches of National and State Highways are given in this table. From the data weanalyse that the percentage share in accidents on national highways is more than that inState Highways.  CHART 3:The data represents the percentage share of persons killed in road accidents by type ofroad user category in the year 2009, occupants of two wheelers, passenger cars and taxis,Trucks and buses account for 21%, 15%, 12% and 10% of total road fatalities. BicycleRiders (4%) and pedestrians (13%) are the most unprotected road users and have to sharethe scarce road space with motorized vehicles of different engine power and speedresulting in serious conflicts with traffic flows.  CHART 4:This represents the quantitative data in the form of pie diagram showing the age profile ofaccident victims. As per the detailed age profile of accident victims other than the driversavailable for the year 2009, it is observed that the age group of (25-65) years account forthe largest share of 52% of total road accidents casualities followed by the age group of(15-25) years with a share of about 30%. Hence, about half of the road traffic casualitiesare in the age group of 25-65 years.  CHART 5:This includes the quantitative data about the causes of road accidents in India in the 26
  • 27. year 2009. According to this data, 79% represents the driver’s fault and the restcomprises of defect in road condition, fault of pedestrian, fault of cyclist, defect incondition of motor vehicle, weather conditions and other causes. The cause leading tominimum accidents is the weather conditions constituting around 1%.  TABLE 6, CHART 6:The quantitative data in the given table and chart relates to the funds allocated and thefunds incurred on Road Safety Activities by Government pertaining to the years2004-2010. the discrepancy or the gap between allocation and spending is shown in thediagram. The maximum gap between the amount allocated and spent exist in the year2009-2010. 6.RESULTS AND FINDINGS 6(a). RESULTS :It is concluded from the correlation done that, as the length of roads increases the numberof accidents also increases as there is a positive association between the two, and withthis increase in total number of accidents, the number of persons killed and the number ofpersons injured also increases.Thus, as the road length increases, the severity of road accidents also increases causing anincrease in large number of persons being killed and injured.From the multiple regressions, we try to show the influence of number of accidents,number of persons killed, number of persons injured and road length on the accidentseverity in India. From the output, it is seen that the total number of persons injured is themost significant factor on which the accident severity and the road length depends. 6 (B).ROAD SAFETY:4. Thus, road safety becomes very essential to prevent these road accidents. It has beenalso observed from the data that pertains to the funds allocated and the funds spent on 27
  • 28. road safety activities that there is a gap which needs to be filled. Therefore, Road SafetyMeasures become very essential to reduce or lessen the accidents occurring on road.Road safety is both a health and development issue of concern considering its magnitudeand gravity and the consequent negative impacts on the economy, public health and thegeneral welfare of the people, particularly those with low incomes. Although we haveundertaken initiatives and are implementing various road safety improvementprogrammes, the overall situation as revealed by data is far from satisfactory.4. Road accidents are non random events occurring due to a complex mix of number offactors which amongst others include:(a) type of road users and colliding vehicles.(b) environmental/road related factors: These include visibility, road design andgeometry, access control, intersections (areas of traffic conflict) provision of segregationof NMT and heavy vehicle traffic.(c) vehicle related factors – visibility of vehicles, use of protective devices (helmets andseat belts) by vehicle occupants; problems with head and tail lights, mechanical failureetc.(d) nature of traffic management : use of automatic signals, traffic calming devices(e) emergency care for accident victims.The main thrust of accident prevention and control across the world has been on 4 E’s,viz. (i) Education, (ii) Enforcement, (iii) Engineering and (iv) Environment andEmergency care of road accident victims. • Educational approach: It relies on dissemination of road safety awareness and regulation through media, classrooms and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). • Enforcement Approach: Its prime emphasis is on restraining road users from undertaking behaviour which expose road users and others to risk of accidents and injuries. 28
  • 29. • Environmental & Engineering Approach: This covers broad range of interventions to make road user safe through better road environment and safer vehicles. Safer vehicles by improving crash worthiness and safety of occupants – safety belts, airbags, laminated windshields, improving braking conditions, installing suitable lights to reduce glare; better roads through better road design, geometry and markings, traffic calming techniques, identification of accident black spots and their treatment, good visibility of roads with lighting, segregation of traffic into slow and fast moving categories. • Emergency accident care: This covers organization, delivery of emergency accident care and logistic support for effective and coordinated delivery of health care to accident victims. WHO guidelines for “essential trauma care” recommend establishing achievable and affordable standards for injury care. Road safety is essentially a multi-sectoral activity. It requires a systems approach with coordinated efforts of health, law, transport, police, insurance agencies and NGOs.Road Safety Public Education:21. Considering the need to address the road safety issues, part of the World Bank loanunder GTRIP was utilized to design and implement an effective public communicationstrategy for enhancing road safety awareness among drivers and other road users by 22.undertaking consulting service for road safety public education. This service wasdesigned to reduce the risk of accidents through raising the awareness among localinhabitants and road users of National Highways of the Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) ofabout 5,864 km that links the main metropolitan centres of Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai andMumbai. 4.The objectives of service were:(i) Make community residents aware that road safety is a major community concern;(ii) Encourage community residents to identify the specific road safety problems faced bythe community as well as remedial measures;(iii) Strengthen local Non Government Organizations (NGOs) and Community BasedOrganizations (CBOs) and their linkages to external institutions with a role in roadsafety; 29
  • 30. (iv) Educate community residents and road users in the safe use of the road and actionsto be taken in the event of an accident.Therefore, we see that various initiatives are to be taken by Government as well as wepeople to ensure that roads are made very safe and accidents occurring are to beeliminated completely. 6 (c) . RECOMMENDATION :Through this project, on the basis of various data, it has been concluded that themagnitude of road accidents and fatalities in India is alarming. This is evidentfrom the fact that every hour there are about 56 accidents (about one accident everyminute). Similarly, every hour more than 14 deaths occur due to road accidents i.e. onedeath in every 4 minutes. Therefore, the severity of road accidents, measured in terms ofpersons killed per 100 accidents, had also increased from 19.9 in 2001 to 25.8 in 2009(TABLE 2). All this require Government to take some initiatives to curb these RoadAccidents, Government needs to allocate greater amount of funds on Road SafetyActivities and ensure that the fund is spent and utilized for this primary purposeoptimally.4. The National Road Safety Policy outlines the policy initiatives to be framed / taken bythe Government at all levels to improve the road safety activities in the country. Broadly,it aims at:- To promote awareness about road safety issues. To establish a road safety information database. To ensure safer road infrastructure by way of designing safer roads, encouragingapplication of Intelligent Transport System etc. To ensure fitment of safety features in the vehicles at the stage of designing,manufacture,usage, operation and maintenance. To strengthen the system of driver licensing and training to improve the competence ofdrivers. 30
  • 31. To take measures to ensure safety of vulnerable road users. To take appropriate measures for enforcement of safety laws. To ensure emergency medical attention for road accident victims. To encourage human resource development and R&D for road safety.To strengthen the enabling legal, institutional and financial environment for promotingroad safety culture in the country.Thus, if these initiatives are well executed, our country would become less prone to RoadAccidents and there would be no harm to the inhibitants. 7. CONCLUSION7(A). Future scope:The project has met the standards required to work for providing service according touser requirement. If the policies remain same the project can be ported to any institutewith minor changes in the working procedure of the project. The project can be used asan availability to develop a project for different colleges or institutions with differentlogic where in the commonalties in certain areas remain the same at any level. By usingthe common features in future development the development time as well as the cost ofdevelopment can be decreased considerably.This dissertation attempts to provide data/information relating to road accidents in termsof its magnitude, incidence, spatial spread, its impact, determinants and policy initiativesundertaken by the government to prevent and mitigate its impact. Therefore, this projectcan be very useful for acquiring knowledge as well as understanding the magnitude ofroad accidents and would also instil people to take initiatives to curb the road accidentsand make roads safer for everybody. These initiatives would ultimately result in RoadDevelopment.7(b ).Limitations: 31
  • 32.  Due to time constraint much of the data could not be collected. Thus, the project is made with the data that could be accessed.  Only secondary data is used and the no primary data has been accessed to.  Also, the inter state analysis of the accident severity could have been done, but due to time constraint, it could not be done.  Many of the data represented through various diagrams pertains to year 2009 only. Various data collected could have been collected for longer time period.  The other limitation has to do with the extent to which the findings can be gener- alized beyond the project studied. The number of cases is too limited for broad generalizations. 8. AnnexureTABLE:1:- GROWTH IN SELECT ACCIDENT PARAMETERS: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in percentYear No. of Accidents No. of Injuries No. of Fatalities No. of Registered Vehicles Road Length (in kms)1970-1980 3 4.5 5.2 12.4 2.31980-1990 6.3 8.4 8.5 15.5 2.91990-2000 3.3 5 3.8 9.8 5.32000-2009 2.4 2.9 5.3 10 2.7 Source: http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdfTABLE 2:- TOTAL NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS, NUMBER OF PERSONS KILLED, INJURED, ACCIDENT SEVERITY AND TOTAL LENGTH OF ROADSYear No. of accidents No. of persons : No. of persons: Accident severity Total length total killed injured 2001 405637 80888 405216 19.9 2302515 2002 407497 84674 408711 20.8 2398788 2003 406726 85998 435122 21.1 2328356 2004 429910 92618 464521 21.5 2396650 2005 439255 94968 465282 21.6 2416078 2006 460920 105749 496481 22.9 2446667 2007 479216 114444 513340 23.9 2483344 2008 484704 119860 523193 24.7 2499766.429 32
  • 33. 2009 486384 125660 515458 25.8 2525693.821 Source: http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdf SUMMARY OUTPUT (OF REGRESSION):- Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.999896705 R Square 0.99979342 Adjusted R Square 0.99958684 Standard Error 0.040179858 Observations 9 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 4 31.2535423 7.813386 4839.744747 1.28008E-07 Residual 4 0.00645768 0.001614 Total 8 31.26 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower Intercept 16.5923672 1.23201728 13.46764 0.00017586868 13.1717388 20.0129955 13.1 number of accidents -0.0000481 0.00000325 -14.816 0.00012082419 -0.0000571 -0.0000391 -0.0 number of persons killed 0.0001947 0.00000524 37.16076 0.00000313126 0.0001801 0.0002092 0.0 number of persons injured 0.0000052 0.00000140 3.6939 0.02094701826 0.0000013 0.0000090 0.0 road length 0.0000022 0.00000061 3.586146 0.02304089497 0.0000005 0.0000039 0.0Source: Table 2, Author’s Calculation 33
  • 34. CHART 1(A):NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS AND THE ROAD LENGTHCHART 1(B):NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS AND NUMBER OF PERSONS KILLED ANDINJURED 2.3 2.9 34
  • 35. -CHART 1(A) Source:Table 2, Author’s Calculation -CHART 1(B) Source: Table 2, Author’s Calculation 35
  • 36. TABLE: 3:- SEVERITY OF ROAD ACCIDENTS IN INDIA (STATE-WISE) SRL.no. States/ UT Persons Killed per 100 Accidents States: 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 Andhra Pradesh 29.3 30.6 32.4 33.9 2 Arunachal Pradesh 51.6 39.6 47.9 51.6 3 Assam 39.2 36.4 38.6 40.9 4 Bihar 42.8 44.8 43.8 43.6 5 Chattisgarh 19.9 21.2 22.9 22.2 6 Goa 8.2 8 7.6 7.7 7 Gujarat 19.5 20.6 21 22.5 8 Haryana 38.9 36.8 38.8 38.6 9 Himachal Pradesh 31.8 33.1 30.8 37.4 10 Jammu and Kashmir 17.7 16.3 17.8 18.5 11 Jharkhand 38.4 39.4 39.7 43.4 12 Karnataka 18.4 18.9 19 19.3 13 Kerala 8.7 9.5 10.5 10.8 14 Madhya Pradesh 14 15.9 15.2 15.6 15 Maharashtra 15 15.2 16.4 15.8 16 Manipur 30.5 21.2 26.4 21.6 17 Meghalaya 37.9 42.3 41.8 36.4 18 Mizoram 67.4 64.9 57.3 69.8 19 Nagaland 35.1 37.2 92.1 87.3 20 Orissa 35.6 36.5 37.6 39.7 21 Punjab 61.9 64.6 62.7 65.9 22 Rajasthan 30.6 34.1 35.4 36 23 Sikkim 37.2 34.7 40.3 15.4 24 Tamil Nadu 20 20.4 21.2 22.6 25 Tripura 24.7 27.8 28.8 26.5 26 Uttarakhand 66.7 64.9 75.7 60.8 27 Uttar Pradesh 55.7 53 51.3 52 28 West Bengal 40.6 40.7 39.2 43.7 Union Territories: 1 Andaman & Nicobar Islands 14.3 13.3 11.5 12.2 2 Chandigarh 27.5 28.3 30.7 40.3 3 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 43.7 56.9 56 57 4 Daman & Diu 47.4 48.3 58 52.4 5 Delhi 23.3 24.8 24.8 30.9 6 Lakshwadeep 10 0 0 50 7 Pondicherry 13.2 14.6 12.5 12.8 National Average 22.9 23.9 24.7 25.8 36
  • 37. TABLE 4:(A) & (B) :- NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS AND NUMBER IF PERSONS KILLED AND INJURED AS PER TYPE OF ROADS: 37
  • 38. (a) NATIONAL HIGHWAYS PERCENTAGE SHARE IN: Yea r Total number of road accidents Number of persons killed Number of persons injured 2001 28.6 39.7 29.5 2002 32.3 39.7 32.4 2003 31.4 38.6 30.1 2004 30.3 37.5 30.8 2005 29.6 37.3 31.3 2006 30.4 37.7 30.8 2007 29 35.5 30.2 2008 28.5 35.6 28.6 2009 29.3 36 29.6Source: http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdf (b) STATE HIGHWAYS PERCENTAGE SHARE IN: Year Total number of road accidents Number of persons killed Number of persons injured 2001 22.5 27.6 25.6 2002 23.5 27.2 25.4 2003 22.4 28.2 26.7 2004 23.5 26.9 24.9 2005 23.6 27.2 25.7 2006 18.5 26.8 24.9 2007 24.4 27.7 26.2 2008 25.6 28.4 27.5 2009 23.8 27.1 25.5Source: http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdf 38
  • 39. TABLE 5, CHART 2:NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS, NUMBER OF PERSONS AND INJURED AS PER ROAD CLASSIFICATION IN YEAR 2009 TABLE 5:- NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS, NUMBER OF PERSONS KILLED, INJURED AS PER ROAD CLASSIFICATION YEAR 2009Road classification National Highways State Highways Other roadsno. of accidents 142511 115992 227881no. of persons killed 45222 34093 46345no. of persons injured 152816 131517 231125 Source: http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdf -CHART:2 Source: Table 5, Author’s Calculation 39
  • 40. CHART 3: PERCENTAGE SHARE OF PERSONS KILED IN ROAD ACCIDENTS BY TYPE OFROAD USER CATEGORY IN THE YEAR 2009 Pedestrian Motor cycles, Scooters, Mopeds Cars, taxis etc 10% 13% Buses 13% Other objects 21% Bicycles 5% 4% Auto-rikshaws 8% Trucks 10% 16% Other motor vehicles -CHART:3 Source: Author’s Calculation 40
  • 41. CHART 4: PERCENTAGE SHARE IN AGE PROFILE OFACCIDENT VICTIMS IN THE YEAR 2009 9% 9% 30% 52% 0-14 15-24 25-65 65 and above -CHART:4 Source: Author’s Calculation 41
  • 42. CHART 5: PERCENTAGE SHARE IN THE CAUSES OF ROAD ACCIDENTS IN THEYEAR 2009Fault of DriverFault of Pedestrian 2% 1% 1%Defect in Road Condition 2% 1%Fault of Cyclist 14% 79%Defect in condition ofMotor VehicleWeather ConditionAll other causes -CHART:5 Source: Author’s Calculation 42
  • 43. CHART 6: FUNDS ALLOCATED AND SPENT ON ROAD SAFETY ACTIVITIESTABLE:6, CHART:6:- Funds Allocated and Spent on Road Safety Activities (IN RUPEES CRORES) (IN RUPEES CRORES) Year Funds Allocated Funds Spent 2004-2005 39.7 34.99 2005-2006 43.05 29.7 2006-2007 47 43.25 2007-2008 52 42.87 2008-2009 73 54.89 2009-2010 79 22.39 2010-2011 81 44.46 Source:http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdf 2010-2011 2009-2010 2008-2009 Funds Allocated Years 2007-2008 Funds Spent 2006-2007 2005-2006 2004-2005 0 20 40 60 80 100 Rupees (in crores) -CHART:6 Source: Table 6, Author’s Calculation 43
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  • 46. 46