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Swechha  - London Colder than Antarctica" Unusual Trends of Global Cooling
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Swechha - London Colder than Antarctica" Unusual Trends of Global Cooling

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Swechha Shukla has presented a paper "London Colder than Antarctica" - Unusual Trends of Global Cooling. It drawn attention on changes in northern hemispheres and successfully conveyed that snowfall ...

Swechha Shukla has presented a paper "London Colder than Antarctica" - Unusual Trends of Global Cooling. It drawn attention on changes in northern hemispheres and successfully conveyed that snowfall and avalanches are the results of global changes and not local incidents. Vernacular Newspaper "Danik Bhaskar" has covered her paper with photograph on 18th February, 2010.

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    Swechha  - London Colder than Antarctica" Unusual Trends of Global Cooling Swechha - London Colder than Antarctica" Unusual Trends of Global Cooling Presentation Transcript

    • “ London Colder than Antarctica” Unusual Trends of Global Cooling  Presented By: Ms. Swechha Shukla , The Times of India & Mr. Prasoon Shukla, Prtyancha Society (Research paper read in Feb, 2010, at International Conference on “Land-Water Resources, Biodiversity and Climate Change” at BSSS College, Bhopal)
    • Abstract To identify the major causes of massive snow fall in northern hemisphere in the year 2009-2010 from Canada to China and to newer regions, this investigative study has been conducted to track the causes and stakeholders aspects of global cooling and to further discuss the response. This research work is ushered by Mrs. Swechha Shukla, The Times of India, Indian Newspaper & Mr. Prasoon Shukla, Prtyancha Society (an NGO), in collaboration with, Dr Divya Tiwari and Dr Ashutosh Tiwari, Faculty in Centre of Excellence, Crainfield University, U.K. Outcomes of the study, on grounds of globally accepted indicators and trends of climate change, precisely establish the relationship of global warming and its subsequent upshot into global cooling. Objective of the study is to explain the logical coherence between Global Cooling done by nature and Global Warming caused by Modern society, and to present a scenario of climate changes in the years to come. It will also academically confirm and suggest strategies opted locally by communities to protect climate, and biodiversity. This paper tried to present all the factors of global cooling and suggest stakeholders’ response, which it can cover in 1 month of study and 5 member team.
    • CONTENTS
      • Background of the problem
      • Purpose of the study
      • Significance of the study
      • Research Question
      • Hypothesis taken
      • Objectives of the study
      • Methodology
      • Demographics; Different Perspectives, Ongoing Research and Global Scenario
      • Hypothesis Testing
      • Key Findings
      • Bibliography
    • Introduction and Background of the Problem
      • 2009 was another year of global cooling, which saw numerous low temperature and high snowfall records. The Dutch canals     for the first time in 12 years got free zed,   record cold   came to Al Gore's home town and ironically a   blizzard   dumped snow on the Copenhagen convention where world leaders met to try and stop global warming. It was so cold that even the   BBC   was forced to ask, what happened to global warming? As Climate gate would reveal, Intergovernmental Penal of Climate Change(IPCC) scientists had been hard at work   hiding evidence   of global cooling. Yet the observational evidence cannot be ignored.
    • Purpose of the study
      • This study will help people and organizations to learn the global scenario of global cooling and identify relationship between global warming and global cooling.
      • Sensitization communities to reduce the intensity of extremes of global warming and further global cooling.
      • Significance of the study
      • The study encompasses the change in climate and environment of major countries globally and also provides an exploratory overview to learn the gravity of their local practices in global warming, changing climate and disturbing biodiversity and further response of nature in balancing the same by taking over the control from human order.
      • Communities will be made aware of their practices and consequences thereof, its will also help them to develop new system and practices to establish balance between nature and modern developmental path.
      • General Government policies and regulations of different countries and international agreements will also evaluate to learn the strategies opted locally and globally.
      • Unique practices that communities observing to live with nature will also be discussed. Stakeholder’s relationship will also be established.
    • Research Question
      • “ Determining the major indicators signifying relationship between global warming and global cooling and risk assessment with respect to communities”
      • This study tries to find out global relationship between global warming by artificial development and global cooling a nature response and identify relationship to work out an order of camaraderie.
      • Hypothesis of the study
      • There are two hypotheses were taken for the study:
      • Human Beings are the supreme authority of the earth in changing climate, biodiversity and shape of land and water resources.
      • Nature is only a dependent variable of human actions and no catalyst therein can control/change its response.
      • Existing theories of global warming for future are align with global scenario of global cooling.
    • Objectives of the study
      • Make communities aware globally of nature’s response to global warming.
      • Intensity and gravity of global cooling.
      • Methodology
      • Qualitative research, where hypothesis is incompletely conceptualized and discussed during the course of study.
      • The study is exploratory in nature where all the dimensions are tired to be covered to present the scenario.
    • Demographics
        • Region for study: Global
        • Communities Profiling: On the basis of
          • Country Region
          • Climate and Biodiversity
        • Scenario: Past and Present Scenario is taken with existing theories for future.
    • Stakeholders Aspects Account;
      • Communities changing living pattern
      • Greenhouse gases
      • Modern lifestyle and environmental degradation
      • Industrial production and global warming
      • Use of Natural Resources, oil, mining, water and land
      • Deforestation ecological balance
      • Nuclear test political scenario
      • Soil Erosion for farming
      • Flaura and Fauna threat
      • Tribal Population, Chhattisgarh
      • Coastal Population, Maldives
      • Food Security
    • Global Warming and Cooling Theories
      • In the 1970s there was increasing awareness that estimates of global temperatures showed cooling since 1945. Of those scientific papers considering climate trends over the 21st century, only 10% inclined towards future cooling, while most papers predicted future warming. The general public had little awareness of carbon dioxide's effects on climate, but Science News in May 1959 forecast a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000, with a consequent warming trend. (The actual increase in this period was 29%.) Paul R. Ehrlich mentioned climate change from greenhouse gases in 1968.By the time the idea of global cooling reached the public press in the mid-1970s temperatures had stopped falling, and there was concern in the climatological community about carbon dioxide's warming effects. In response to such reports, the World Meteorological Organization issued a warning in June 1976 that a very significant warming of global climate was probable.
      • Currently there are some concerns about the possible cooling effects of a slowdown or shutdown of thermohaline circulation, which might be provoked by an increase of fresh water mixing into the North Atlantic due to glacial melting. The probability of this occurring is generally considered to be very low, and the IPCC notes, "even in models where the THC weakens, there is still a warming over Europe. For example, in all AOGCM integrations where the radioactive forcing is increasing, the sign of the temperature change over north-west Europe is positive."
    • Physical mechanisms(Causes of Cooling)
      • Aerosols
      • Human activity — mostly as a by-product of fossil fuel combustion , partly by land use changes — increases the number of tiny particles ( aerosols ) in the atmosphere. These have a direct effect : they effectively increase the planetary albedo , thus cooling the planet by reducing the solar radiation reaching the surface; and an indirect effect : they affect the properties of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei . In the early 1970s some speculated that this cooling effect might dominate over the warming effect of the CO2 release: see discussion of Rasool and Schneider (1971)2.
      • Orbital forcing and Ice Age Cycles
      • Orbital forcing refers to the slow, cyclical changes in the tilt of Earth's axis and shape of its orbit . These cycles alter the total amount of sunlight reaching the earth by a small amount and affect the timing and intensity of the seasons . This mechanism is believed to be responsible for the timing of the ice age cycles , and understanding of the mechanism was increasing rapidly in the mid-1970s.(The seminal paper of Hays, Imbrie and Shackleton "Variations in the earths orbit: pacemaker of the ice ages",
      • Global Cooling Conferences;
      • 1972 and 1974 National Science Board : The National Science Board's Patterns and Perspectives in Environmental Science report of 1972 discussed the cyclical behavior of climate, and the understanding at the time that the planet was entering a phase of cooling after a warm period.
      • The Board's report of 1974, Science And The Challenges Ahead , continued on this theme. "During the last 20-30 years, world temperature has fallen, irregularly at first but more sharply over the last decade."
      • 1975 U.S National Academy of Sciences report: "Understanding Climate Change: A Program for Action" did not make predictions, stating in fact that "we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course. Without the fundamental understanding, it does not seem possible to predict climate
      • The report further stated: The climates of the earth have always been changing, and they will doubtless continue to do so in the future. How large these future changes will be, and where and how rapidly they will occur, we do not know.
      • 1975 Newsweek article : Titled "The Cooling World", it pointed to "ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change" and pointed to "a drop of half a degree [Fahrenheit] in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968." The article claimed "The evidence in support of these predictions [of global cooling] has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it."
      • 1980s “Concerns of nuclear winter arose in the early 1980s from several reports.”
      • Currently, the concern that cooler temperatures would continue, and perhaps at a faster rate, has been observed to be incorrect by the IPCC. More has to be learned about climate, but the growing records have shown that the cooling concerns of 1975 have not been borne out.
      • No Country wise polices for environment and International Agreements on Global Cooling.
    • Glaciers at British Columbia and Europe
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    • Ice creates chaos in China
    • Snowfall
    • Massive rainfall and snow has stand still the Washington city and many parts of USA, Catrina and Rita has devastated the entire life of southern parts of USA.
    • Himalayan Region Avalanche in Himalaya region from India to Afghanistan has killed many people in last month. The local manifestation of global cooling scenario
    • Guiana Field and South America
    • Africa
    • Australia Frequent fire in Australian forest is also affect the climate and ecological balance and putting biodiversity at risk.
    • Greenhouses gases increasing the face of global cooling earlier only CO2 effect was studied but replacement of gas against petrol as fuel is also causing temperature to increase .
    •  
    • Maldives Maldivian Cabinet has conducted a cabinet meeting in sea to gather attention of international community. Show case the misery of existence of coastal communities victim of global warming and increase in sea level.
    •  
    • Hypothesis testing
      • The Hypothesis of supremacy of human factors is proven wrong and nature is capable in taking control for rebuilding climate and biodiversity.
      • Nature is an independent variable which can contribute as per its overall relationship with climate of the earth and atmosphere and human factors will remain dependent when all natural factors collectively respond to ecology, atmospheric balance, climate and biodiversity.
      • In long run, Interdependence of Human factors and Natural Factors got established and its effect in global warming and cooling, and we are not having sufficient time to adapt the fury of nature.
    • Key Findings
      • Country wise polices for environment and International Agreements on Global Cooling.
      • There is no clear cut understanding of dynamic of earth and factored.
      • With respect to time frame “on the ground emergencies are needed to be understood and addressed at earliest to avoid catastrophic effects
      • Communities living on the edge like Maldives and Hilly regions are the requiring immediate attention.
      • Drought proofing for south hemispherical regions which are presently affected with global warming.
      • Massive forestation is required to handhold with natural climate.
      • Evolutionary genetic bottlenecks are still unknown.
      • Drivers and Pressures unidentified.
      • No Governmental Policies globally.
      • International consensus has yet to be built.
      • Community Awareness for taking controllable factors on priority like forestation, rain water harvesting, proper land use, environmental friendly green industrial projects,
    • Bibliography and References
        • ^ "Summary for Policymakers" ( PDF ). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . 2007-02-05. http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_SPM.pdf . Retrieved 2007-02-02.
    • Bibliography and References
        • Website of Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change.
        • Reports published on respective governmental agencies on countries quoted.