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Global Mobility and Megacities
 

Global Mobility and Megacities

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Frost & Sullivan

Frost & Sullivan
Presentation at the 2011 EDTA Conference and Annual Meeting

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    Global Mobility and Megacities Global Mobility and Megacities Presentation Transcript

    • Frost & Sullivan Workshop: Global Mobility and MegacitiesPresentation at the 2011 EDTA Conference and Annual Meeting April 19, 2011
    • Agenda for the day – EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011• Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and Technology Planning 40 min• Video BMW short films: 15 min• Workshop Tools : Introduction 10 min• Working session and brainstorm: Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze new opportunities and business models 20 min• Team Presentations 30 min• Summary 05 min 2
    • Table of Contents Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry Overview of Mega and Smart Cities New Urban Mobility Business Models New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology Discussions M5A9-18 3
    • Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry Urbanization Infrastructure Geo-socialization New Business Models Power to the Middle Class E-Mobility and Gen Y Digital World (high speed broadband, Wireless, etc) Health, Wellness and Well-being High Speed Rail M5A9-18 4
    • Table of Contents Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry Urbanization & Overview of Mega and Smart Cities New Urban Mobility Business Models New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology Discussions M5A9-18 6
    • Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regionsand Mega Corridors MEGA CITY MEGA REGIONS MEGA CORRIDORS City With A Minimum Cities Combining With Suburbs To The Corridors Connecting Two Population Of 10 Million Form Regions. (Population over Major Cities or Mega Regions 10 Million) EXAMPLE: Greater London EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen- EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Guangzhou in China (Population Pretoria (forming 120 Million) “Jo-Toria”)M5A9-18 7
    • Cities Globally Will Become Networked, Integrated and Branded -Polarization of Vehicle Sizes Is Creating Demand for EVs in Mega Cities 1950s Urbanisation 2020s : Branded Cities Living areas expanding well outside of the peninsular loop in Creation of the historic centre and districts San Francisco 2000s Suburbanisation Source: Frost & Sullivan Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road • Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for 2015s Network City “double income, no kids” households. cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt. • Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and third belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery. • „Green wave‟ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries). Third suburban area and cities along the highways cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the intermodal public transport and created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl working areas in third and second belt. M5A9-18 8
    • Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts Smart Cities  Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility Smart Diamond to define Smart city „S” Governance „S‟ Citizen „S‟ Business „S‟ CityPlanning „S‟ Buildings Source: Frost & Sullivan These 3 elements Will define the „Smart‟ „S‟ Mobility Mobility of the future „S‟ Energy „S‟ ICT„S‟ Energy  Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure„S„ City Planning  EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, Congestion Charging„S‟ Information Communication & Technology  Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, Internet Technologies Legend: City‟s Infrastructure City‟s User community City‟s Green Ecology
    • SMART CITY CASE STUDY: Amsterdam - Ordering over 200 Leafsfrom Nissan with key objective to reduce Particulate Matter in City SMART MOBILITY SMART LIVING SMART WORKING PLACE • 39% commute by bicycle • 400+ Km of dedicated cycle route • To familiarize electric bicycle taxis • 200 charging stations by 2012; • 10,000 EVs By 2015 • 1200 homes to feature smart meters • ITO tower is testing the use of smart • Encourage car sharing and energy management systems. meters and energy efficient appliances to • 14% reduction in energy use is cut energy consumption. expected of this smart meter project • Design aesthetics of building absorb • Cheaper parking slots at natural light and air from the environmentP+R public transit stations to park cars and board trains SMART PUBLIC SPACE thereby keep artificial lighting and HVAC use to minimum.x • Yearly reduction of parking spaces and increase of tariffs inside the city. ***** SMART COMMUTE to WORK • 30 kmph speed limits on 80% • Utrechtsestraat – the popular narrow of roads inside the city - shopping street downtown is to feature makes bicycles faster by at • 25 MNCs have jointly signed to reduce energy efficient street lighting, least 50% on a A-B trip. home to work car miles by 10% by 2012. • Sustainable tram stops with solar • Incentive/free bicycles to employees powered displays and billboards • 154 shore power connections • Free & protected bike parks at offices to • Solar powered garbage bins with built to charge inland cargo vessels encourage cycle use. in compacters will be installed on this and river cruisers to be • Work from home if necessary street installed by 2012
    • “Smart” Market Opportunity: Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition Energy/Infrastructure Players • T&D Technology • Power Electronics • Renewable Energy • Integrated Distribution Management • Substation Automation • AMI-Enabled Metering • Etc.• IP Networks • Building Automation• Digital Technology • Demand-Side Management• Analysis Software • Connectivity of devices• Wireless Communication • Monitoring and Sensing• Technology Integration • Smart Grid Integration• Network Security • Etc.• Etc. Automation/Building IT Players Control Players Source: Frost & Sullivan.
    • Gen Y and the Rise of Middle Class
    • World Population in 2020 : 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15to 34 – Important Customer of the Future for City Cars World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020 2010 2020 2 Around 37% of this Age 7.55 Billion Group Will Live in India 1.86.83 Billion and China Alone 1.2 0.5 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.2 Population (billion) 2.1 2.3 0.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.8 2.2 0.2 0.6 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 12 . 0.1 21 . 26 . 0 17 . North America Latin America, Europe Africa India C hina Rest of Asia C aribbean and Oceania 0-14 Years 15-34 Years 35-64 Years 65 Years and Above Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 – 34 Years Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations M5A9-18 14
    • Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest andLifestyle Personalisation and Techno Savvy and Civic and Demanding and Individualisation Connected 24 X 7 Environmentally Impatient – “Fast Friendly and the Furious” Gaming Gizmos Personalised Search and Instant Text Messaging Eco- Transport News Smart Phones Social Networking Profiles Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic) Instant Chat Facebook-on-the Move Personalised Products Speed Oriented Gaming Paperless Banking (Car Racing) Microblogs
    • Rise of the Middle Class in 2020: Over 1 Billion from India and China Alone The middle class in Russia is defined as households with an annual income between $6000 and $30,000 140 Million 700 Million 400 Million The middle class in China is defined as households with an annual income between $8,000 and $70,000 120 Million The middle class in India is defined as households with an annual income between $5,000 and $220,000 The middle class in Brazil is defined as households with an annual income between $586 and $2,530 15 Million
    • Top 20 Megacities – Regional Transportation PoliciesCongestion , low emission zones and road user charging initiatives in the emergingeconomies will have a major impact on car mobility Delhi Mumbai Beijing Shanghai Moscow Seoul New York London Tokyo Bus Rapid 2011 2011 Transit Lanes Metro/Subway 2011 Congestion Planned Planned 2012 2012 Future Planned Future Charging Parking Cuts Road use 1 Week 1 week 1 Week Yes Future Charging/Ban Day Ban Day Ban Day Ban* EV/Hybrid Incentives Bicycle Lanes CAFÉ Euro 3 Euro 4 25% Emission 27.5mpg. Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 by Euro 4 Euro 5 by reduction Standard 34.1 mpg 2012 2011 by 2015 by 2016 Not planned Existing currently * Voluntary no road usage incentive Source: Frost & Sullivan M5A9-18 17
    • Top 20 Megacities – Car Ownership Trend Evolution of Megacities: Top 20 Megacities – Car Ownership Growth (Global), 2009 - 2025 Population Per capita 2025 Cars per 1000 - Cars per 1000 – (Million) (USD) 2009 2025 Tokyo 38.5 46,494 353 340 New York 25.9 67,591 230 220 London 14.4 57,746 400 340 Mexico City 21.0 33,795 209 270 Shanghai 21.0 32,952 32 122 São Paulo 21.5 28,001 150 335 Buenos Aires 13.8 43,581 190 350 Mumbai 26.4 21,224 24 72 Beijing 20.0 25,000 35 155 Delhi 22.5 21,335 117 250 Moscow 14.5 42,759 307 475 Guangzhou 11.8 36,332 43 173 Seoul 9.7 43,860 239 320 M5A9-18 18
    • Agenda Key Trends in Urbanization Overview of Mega and Smart Cities New Urban Mobility Business Models New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology DiscussionsM5A9-18 19
    • High Speed Rail to Come to USOverview of 13 high-speed rail corridors across 31 states. Evolution of Megacities: High Speed Rain in U.S. (2009-2025) California to connect Bay Area with LA through an ambitious $42bn program with construction starting in 2 years Impact to Personal Mobility and Auto Industry 1. Air travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link cities 2. Train operators could start offering integrated transport e.g. Car sharing 3. Will take congestion off highways, people will drive less long distance 4. Attractive cities for car sharing 5. Small city car sales will grow in these cities M5A9-18 20
    • Car Sharing in North America4.4 million members Forecast by 2016. Around 88% of NA Car Sharing Membersare in the United States across 26 Car Sharing Programs Evolution of Megacities: Car Sharing in North America (US and Canada), 2009 - 2025 2016 Potential More than $ 3.3 billion in revenues More than 4.4 million members More than 72,000 vehicles in car sharing Source: Frost & Sullivan M5A9-18 21
    • Mobility Integrators (MI) – New Players Entering the MarketMIs to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters’ inter-modality and multi-modality travel split Telecom Operators Transport The Concept of a Dynamic Operators Transport Solution Rail Bus Integrating Different Modes Under a Single Entity to make Personal Online Mobility Car sharing Transportation Easy and Booking Simple Agencies: Long Distance Mobility Mobility Bikes Integrator Short Distance Urban Mobility Technology MIs will start exploiting the Solutions Provider Web 2.0 and Mobile 2.0 Payment Engine Internet service to offer Technology Evolution mobility-based applications (apps) on smart MOBILE phones. 2.0 WEB 2.0 Source: Frost & Sullivan *The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose M5A9-18 22
    • Case Study - Mu by Peugeot (Mobility Integration by OEM)Integrated Mobility On-demand Solutions Under One Roof Evolution of Megacities: Case Study – Mu by Peugeot (Global), 2009 Generate Working Concept income from the stock of vehicles Travel Driving sitting at Services dealerships Pay subscription charges Behavior Create an account to use and Rewards this scheme to get charging units Earn mobility (reward) Hire services or products Weekend by points that can be used for based on balance in Services Peugeot select services charging units Personal Transport Solutions Current Points of Sale Decrease spending Vehicle by using the same Brest Accessories infrastructure and Rennes staff Nantes Paris Servic Hiring Lyon e Units Units London Partnering with travel agencies,  Micro-mobility solutions such Bristol driving schools amongst others. as bicycles and scooters. Booking services on train,  Rental cars and vans. airplane travel and hotels.  Vehicle accessories such as Expected to be expanded in key EU cities Discounts, prizes and member roof-boxes, cycle racks and in 2010-2011 advantages. child seats. Source: Frost & Sullivan M5A9-18 23
    • Agenda Key Trends in Urbanization Overview of Mega and Smart Cities New Urban Mobility Business Models New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology DiscussionsM5A9-18 24
    • In Future, There Will be Shift from Cities Designed aroundCars to Cars Designed around [Mega] Cities :OEMS to Develop New Vehicles and Platforms Evolution of Megacities: City Cars (Global), 2009 - 2025 • ‘City Cars’ – In sync with the city  Multiple Variants – Pixo, Note and Cube • Compact Vehicle length and width: less than 4,000mm x 1,675mm • Low emissions: 1-litre engine, Electric vehicles in future • Tight turning circle of 4.5m and power assisted steering for easy maneuvering in city traffic • Parking system, Start Stop system, Nissan Connect, foldable rear seats, customizable setting • Megacity Vehicle – be launched in 2013. • Electro-mobility – Zero emission vehicles (lithium ion battery with about 35 kWh capacity ) • Electric driveline - Electric motor for quicker acceleration and zip drive. • Lighter drive –Carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) passenger cell and aluminum chassis. • Tata Nano to be launched as City Car in EU and NA (low cost car in India) • Compact Vehicle length and width: 3099mm x 1,495mm • Low emissions; sub 1 liter engine (624cc). Electric vehicle in future. • Turning radius: 4m. • Low vehicle weight: 600 kg (1,300lb) Logos are only for descriptive purpose. Source: Frost & Sullivan M5A9-18 26
    • Characteristics of The Sub-A Segment Microcar Market: Characteristics of Sub-A Segment (Europe), 2010 Technical Specification Sub-A Segment A-Segment Reference Model Gordon Murray TATA Motors Mitsubishi T.27 Nano EV i-MiEV Length (mm) 2,500 3,090 3,475 Width (mm) 1,300 1,487 1,475 Height (mm) 1,600 1,585 1,610 Power Capacity (kW) 15-40 47 Seating Capacity (nos.) 1-4 4 Maximum Speed (kmph) 75-140 (Average Top Speed = 110) ~130 Maximum Driving Range (km) 100-160 (Average Driving Range = 130) ~160 Source: Frost & Sullivan M5A9-18 28
    • Impact on Vehicle Technology PlanningOpportunity for OEMs to Develop Technologies for Customers’ Unmet Needs Evolution of Megacities: Impact on Vehicle Technology Planning (Global), 1950 - 2025 Vehicle length of CO2 less than 80 less than 3500mm gm/km vehicles Limited boot space Voice recognition and more head and technology leg room Start Stop System for Panoramic roofs frequent stop in traffic Customised and Lightweight personalised comfort construction functions Autonomous parking Low speed collision assist avoidance for enhanced safety and pedestrian protection Simple and easy to use HMI 3G/Wi-Fi Connectivity - V2V and V2X communication Ergonomically designed comfortable seats for long commuting hours Facebook on wheels, Internet in cars Turning radius <4.3m to drive in congested streets Navigation systems with route guidance and traffic information Smart vehicle access Source: Frost & Sullivan M5A9-18 29
    • E-MobilityOver 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around theGlobe in 2020 and over 60% of these will be sold in Large Cities Evolution of Megacities: E-Mobility (Global), 2009 - 2025 Total 30 million – Total 10 Million – 2 Wheelers (2020) 4 Wheelers (2020) Sanyo Enable XM 3000 Electric Moped The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton Source: Frost & Sullivan M5A9-18 30
    • Connected MobilitySmart Connectivity Between Home and Office and from Personal Device to Car withCloud Character will Become Increasingly Important in Car of the Future Internet Radio Cloud Computing Smarter Home EV Infrastructure Infotainment and Mobile Phone Source: Frost & Sullivan M5A9-18 31
    • Future IT Mobility Solutions for “Integrated” and “Interoperable”Transport Infrastructure: RTI: Ticketing, EVs IT: scheduling, CCTV Smart grid/energy and incident Ticketing/AFC: management, Connectivity: opportunity for built, management, Innovative payment, billing systems, bought & beamed in, providing a UTMC integration integration with RTI comms & cloud hybrid open architecture service and network comms V2V: ANPR, DSRC, LMS: Signalling, vehicle positioning infotainment, diagnostics, energy management &GPS Car Sharing: technology to locate, reserve and unlock nearest car on mobile, provide info via apps/GPS Congestion Charging: technology Commercial Vehicle migration from ANPR – Telematics: Vehicle/driver Tag& Beacon – GPS, management, and on board Source: ETSI and advanced paymenttracking, computer, navigation and info on mobile Source: ETSI M5A9-18 32
    • Mega-City App StoreFrom Car Sharing to Diagnostics to EV’s, Apps for Cars are becoming a Value AddedDevelopment Evolution of Megacities: App store from Megacity Vehicles (Global), 1950 - 2025 News – Online Remote Vehicle Integrated 3D Navigation Car Sharing radio news, Horn/Light Telematics – EV Billing with Video Vehicle Access RSS feeds Flash – Security eCall/bCall/Toll Support reader App, ing Multimodal Social Diagnostics – Transport – Remote Car Real time Networking – TPMS, Interior Pre- apps for real Starter/ Traffic e.g. Twitter, service/oil Condition App time Security Information Facebook, notifications, bus/transit Car/Van Vehicle Access IP TV – live tv Real Time Pooling – car –converting Charging Dynamic POI using internet, Video Traffic and van pooling phone in to Station Locator Finder eg. .SPB TV, Feeds apps, smart key Car Sharing – Choosing, Internet Radio Emergency Reservation e.g. Pandora, Vehicle Locator State of Charge Turn by Turn Assistance – and locating RadioTime Monitoring App Navigation App cars, Source: Frost & Sullivan Vehicle Access/ Mobility Entertainment Telematics Electric Vehicles Navigation Security M5A9-18 33
    • Future of Urban Mobility – Conclusions andRecommendations Impact on More than 60% Personal Mobility of the population will live in cities by 2025 Multimodal Mobility Over 30 Mega- cities, 110 Smart/Sustainable E - Mobility Cities and Mega Corridors Small and Micro Mobility New integrated urban mobility models will Shared Mobility emerge including (Car Sharing/Pooling) car sharing Last Mile Connectivity OEMs to develop new Mega City vehicles New Technology in Cars Mega City vehicle (e.g. Internet Radio) s will have new “Urban” technologies V2V & V2I Communication & Wireless Connectivity M5A9-18 34
    • Thank you!Urban Mobility Tracker, Q1 report page 35
    • Agenda for the day – EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011• Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and Technology Planning 40 min• Video BMW short films: 15 min• Workshop Tools : Introduction 10 min• Working session and brainstorm: Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze new opportunities and business models 20 min• Team Presentations 30 min• Summary 05 min 36
    • Objectives of the Workshop• Aim : Evaluate new business models and “out of box” business opportunities for your industry in relation to MC & Future Mobility• Methodology :• Brainstorm within your group for 20 minutes using the Optopus• Capture the results in a flip chart• Short-list 2 or 3 opportunities and use the Option Evaluation Grid to conduct the scoring• Nominate a leader to present your group findings• Please present using “weather forecast” presentation tips (5 minutes, top level and most relevant points) 37
    • The “OPTOPUS” (or Option Octopus) – BrainstormingTool for Generation Strategic Market Opportunities Market Sectors Geography Customer SegmentsDivestment Value or OPTIONS CreationOutsource Value Delivery Acquisition Alliance 38
    • The “OPTOPUS” (or Option Octopus) –Brainstorming ToolThe Option Octopus (Optopus) is a tool to provide a more structured approach to the brainstorming ofstrategic options. The Optopus assumes that there are 8 main categories of growth option into which anyideas can be mapped.As such, the Optopus enables the mapping of options under the 8 key headings and is therefore a simpleframework around which growth options can be brainstormed and listed.• The 8 „arms‟ of the Optopus:Geography – Options for growth via expansion into new geographical regionsMarket Sectors – Options for growth via expansion into new market sectorsDivestment/Outsource – Change of business direction (e.g. outsourcing production)Acquisition – Options for growth via merger or acquisition activitiesAlliance – Options for growth via implementation of strategic alliances/partnershipsValue Delivery – Growth via the development of new channels to marketValue Creation – Growth via the provision of additional services etc. (up-sell/cross-sell)Customer Segments – Options for growth via targeting new customers or applications 39
    • Strategic Option Grid - Tool for Evaluating Options Options Option1 Option 2 Option 3 Criteria Strategic Attractiveness Financial Attractiveness Implementation Difficulty Uncertainty and Risk Acceptability to Stakeholders The Strategic Options Grid is a detailed tool that is ideal for analyzing and prioritizing mutually exclusive strategic options. This tool assumes that the overall strategic attractiveness of an option can be evaluated by looking at 5 distinct variables: market attractiveness; financial attractiveness; implementation difficulty; risk/uncertainty; and strategic fit/stakeholder attractiveness. 40
    • BMW Films - Mobility 41
    • Contacts Robert Duronio Brian Drake Consulting Director Director, Business Development Automotive & Transportation Automotive & Transportation P: 703.870.5801 P: 248.836.8260 Email: robert.duronio@frost.com Email: brian.drake@frost.com 42