Kcm 2011
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Kcm 2011 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Keeping Current Matters January 2011
  • 2. KCM on the go!
  • 3. Return on Investment MSN Money.com, Case Shiller (January 1, 2000 –January 1, 2011)
  • 4. “ With all the teeth-gnashing over the real estate bubble, the bust and the mortgage mess, you can be forgiven for failing to notice this little tidbit:     Housing had a superb decade.” Forbes.com 12/06/2010 Forbes.com 58% average gains per square foot
  • 5. Future House Sales – Fannie Mae & NAR Fannie Mae and NAR 11/2010 NAR Fannie Mae
  • 6. Pending Home Sales NAR 12/2010 Without Outside Intervention
  • 7. The Washington Post Washington Post 12/22/2010 "The level of activity will still be low relative to the boom. But the trend is starting to move in the right direction, which is a little bit of good news with which to close out the year." - Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial
  • 8. Sales vs. Months Supply NAR Sales Months Supply
  • 9. “ Prices were weighed down by a huge inventory of foreclosed homes, which tend to sell at sharply discounted prices. Wall Street Journal WSJ 12/29/2010 Wells Fargo projects prices will drop 8% more by mid-2011.”
  • 10. CNBC CNBC 12/28/2010
  • 11. Watch Rates Closely
  • 12. Mortgage Rates – 30 year fixed Federal Reserve
  • 13. Impact of Rates on Payment
  • 14. Listing Manual - Today Buyer Manual - February Presentation of Offer - March Price Correction - April
  • 15.  
  • 16.  
  • 17. The Sale is Their Trust in Us!! Needs Answers Resources We DO NOT Sell Real Estate. We SELL Our Ability to Be a Trusted Advisor!
  • 18. Their Needs Needs Answers Resources Sold Most Money Least Time Least Hassles Relocation
  • 19. The Generic Answers Needs Answers Resources Sold Qualified Buyers Most Money Negotiation Least Time Marketing Least Hassles Control Relocation Knowledge
  • 20. … with the heart of a teacher
  • 21. “ If you can’t explain it simply , you don’t understand it well enough.”
  • 22. People don’t believe what you tell them. They always believe what they tell themselves.
  • 23. % Appreciation in 5 Year Increments Source: Brookings Papers 9/08
  • 24. Source: KCM 9/2010 Case Shiller S&P Case Shiller Pricing Index – 10 City 1987 – 2010
  • 25. Supply & Demand
  • 26. Months Supply’s Impact on Price Months Market Pricing 1-4 Sellers Appreciation 5-6 Even The Norm 7+ Buyers Depreciation
  • 27. Sales vs. Existing Inventory 14.4 months Source: MLS
  • 28. What Role Will Distressed Properties Play?
  • 29. CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010 Shadow & Visible Inventory Detail
  • 30. CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010 Shadow Inventory Detail
  • 31. Month’s Supply of Distressed Homes CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010
  • 32. Value by Sale Category Realty Trac Foreclosure Report 12/02/2010 Type of Sale % of Value Non-Distressed Sale 100% Short Sale 81% Foreclosure Sale 59%
  • 33. Robo-Signers
  • 34. Pricing as we move forward…
  • 35. “ Prices were weighed down by a huge inventory of foreclosed homes, which tend to sell at sharply discounted prices. Wall Street Journal WSJ 12/29/2010 Wells Fargo projects prices will drop 8% more by mid-2011.”
  • 36. CNBC CNBC 12/28/2010
  • 37. Bank of America Economic Analysis Report September 3, 2010 Bank Of America Pricing Forecast
  • 38. Future House Prices – Fannie Mae Fannie Mae’s Economic and Mortgage Market Analysis 12/2010 Median Prices in Thousands
  • 39. Prices
  • 40. Price must be compelling!
  • 41. On a $300,000 house, a family loses $576.92 per week! Assuming a 10% fall in prices…
  • 42. Your Resources Needs Answers Resources Sold Qualified Buyers KCM Most Money Negotiation Least Time Marketing Least Hassles Control Relocation Knowledge
  • 43.  
  • 44. The KCM Blog
  • 45. 631.787.6200 www.KCMblog.com www.steveharney.com [email_address]
  • 46. [email_address] Flying solo, but never alone!
  • 47. Keeping Current Matters