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Keeping Current Matters January 2011
KCM   on the go!
Return on Investment MSN Money.com, Case Shiller (January 1, 2000 –January 1, 2011)
“ With all the teeth-gnashing over the real estate bubble, the bust and the mortgage mess, you can be forgiven for failing...
Future House Sales  – Fannie Mae & NAR Fannie Mae and NAR 11/2010 NAR Fannie Mae
Pending Home Sales NAR 12/2010 Without  Outside Intervention
The Washington Post Washington Post 12/22/2010 "The level of activity will still be low relative to the boom. But the...
Sales vs. Months Supply NAR Sales   Months Supply
“ Prices were weighed  down by a huge inventory of foreclosed homes, which tend to sell at sharply discounted prices.  Wal...
CNBC CNBC 12/28/2010
Watch Rates Closely
Mortgage Rates  –   30 year fixed Federal Reserve
Impact of Rates on Payment
Listing Manual - Today Buyer Manual - February Presentation of Offer - March Price Correction - April
 
 
The Sale is Their Trust in Us!! Needs Answers Resources We DO NOT Sell Real Estate. We SELL Our Ability to Be a Trusted Ad...
Their Needs Needs Answers Resources Sold Most Money Least Time Least Hassles Relocation
The Generic Answers Needs Answers Resources Sold Qualified Buyers Most Money Negotiation Least Time Marketing  Least Hassl...
…  with the heart of a teacher
“ If you can’t explain it  simply , you don’t understand it well enough.”
People  don’t  believe  what  you  tell them. They  always  believe  what  they  tell themselves.
% Appreciation in 5 Year Increments Source: Brookings Papers 9/08
Source: KCM 9/2010 Case Shiller S&P Case Shiller Pricing Index  – 10 City 1987 – 2010
Supply  &  Demand
Months Supply’s Impact on Price Months Market  Pricing 1-4 Sellers Appreciation 5-6 Even The Norm 7+ Buyers Depreciation
Sales vs. Existing Inventory 14.4 months Source: MLS
What Role Will Distressed Properties Play?
CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010 Shadow  & Visible Inventory Detail
CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010 Shadow Inventory Detail
Month’s Supply of Distressed Homes CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010
Value by Sale Category Realty Trac Foreclosure Report 12/02/2010 Type of Sale % of Value Non-Distressed Sale 100% Short Sa...
Robo-Signers
Pricing as we move forward…
“ Prices were weighed  down by a huge inventory of foreclosed homes, which tend to sell at sharply discounted prices.  Wal...
CNBC CNBC 12/28/2010
Bank of America Economic Analysis Report September 3, 2010 Bank Of America Pricing Forecast
Future House Prices – Fannie Mae Fannie Mae’s Economic and Mortgage Market Analysis 12/2010 Median Prices in Thousands
Prices
Price must be compelling!
On a $300,000  house, a family loses  $576.92  per week! Assuming a 10%  fall in prices…
Your Resources Needs Answers Resources Sold Qualified Buyers KCM Most Money Negotiation Least Time Marketing  Least Hassle...
 
The KCM Blog
631.787.6200 www.KCMblog.com www.steveharney.com [email_address]
[email_address] Flying solo,  but never alone!
Keeping Current Matters
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Transcript of "Kcm 2011"

  1. 1. Keeping Current Matters January 2011
  2. 2. KCM on the go!
  3. 3. Return on Investment MSN Money.com, Case Shiller (January 1, 2000 –January 1, 2011)
  4. 4. “ With all the teeth-gnashing over the real estate bubble, the bust and the mortgage mess, you can be forgiven for failing to notice this little tidbit:     Housing had a superb decade.” Forbes.com 12/06/2010 Forbes.com 58% average gains per square foot
  5. 5. Future House Sales – Fannie Mae & NAR Fannie Mae and NAR 11/2010 NAR Fannie Mae
  6. 6. Pending Home Sales NAR 12/2010 Without Outside Intervention
  7. 7. The Washington Post Washington Post 12/22/2010 "The level of activity will still be low relative to the boom. But the trend is starting to move in the right direction, which is a little bit of good news with which to close out the year." - Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial
  8. 8. Sales vs. Months Supply NAR Sales Months Supply
  9. 9. “ Prices were weighed down by a huge inventory of foreclosed homes, which tend to sell at sharply discounted prices. Wall Street Journal WSJ 12/29/2010 Wells Fargo projects prices will drop 8% more by mid-2011.”
  10. 10. CNBC CNBC 12/28/2010
  11. 11. Watch Rates Closely
  12. 12. Mortgage Rates – 30 year fixed Federal Reserve
  13. 13. Impact of Rates on Payment
  14. 14. Listing Manual - Today Buyer Manual - February Presentation of Offer - March Price Correction - April
  15. 17. The Sale is Their Trust in Us!! Needs Answers Resources We DO NOT Sell Real Estate. We SELL Our Ability to Be a Trusted Advisor!
  16. 18. Their Needs Needs Answers Resources Sold Most Money Least Time Least Hassles Relocation
  17. 19. The Generic Answers Needs Answers Resources Sold Qualified Buyers Most Money Negotiation Least Time Marketing Least Hassles Control Relocation Knowledge
  18. 20. … with the heart of a teacher
  19. 21. “ If you can’t explain it simply , you don’t understand it well enough.”
  20. 22. People don’t believe what you tell them. They always believe what they tell themselves.
  21. 23. % Appreciation in 5 Year Increments Source: Brookings Papers 9/08
  22. 24. Source: KCM 9/2010 Case Shiller S&P Case Shiller Pricing Index – 10 City 1987 – 2010
  23. 25. Supply & Demand
  24. 26. Months Supply’s Impact on Price Months Market Pricing 1-4 Sellers Appreciation 5-6 Even The Norm 7+ Buyers Depreciation
  25. 27. Sales vs. Existing Inventory 14.4 months Source: MLS
  26. 28. What Role Will Distressed Properties Play?
  27. 29. CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010 Shadow & Visible Inventory Detail
  28. 30. CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010 Shadow Inventory Detail
  29. 31. Month’s Supply of Distressed Homes CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010
  30. 32. Value by Sale Category Realty Trac Foreclosure Report 12/02/2010 Type of Sale % of Value Non-Distressed Sale 100% Short Sale 81% Foreclosure Sale 59%
  31. 33. Robo-Signers
  32. 34. Pricing as we move forward…
  33. 35. “ Prices were weighed down by a huge inventory of foreclosed homes, which tend to sell at sharply discounted prices. Wall Street Journal WSJ 12/29/2010 Wells Fargo projects prices will drop 8% more by mid-2011.”
  34. 36. CNBC CNBC 12/28/2010
  35. 37. Bank of America Economic Analysis Report September 3, 2010 Bank Of America Pricing Forecast
  36. 38. Future House Prices – Fannie Mae Fannie Mae’s Economic and Mortgage Market Analysis 12/2010 Median Prices in Thousands
  37. 39. Prices
  38. 40. Price must be compelling!
  39. 41. On a $300,000 house, a family loses $576.92 per week! Assuming a 10% fall in prices…
  40. 42. Your Resources Needs Answers Resources Sold Qualified Buyers KCM Most Money Negotiation Least Time Marketing Least Hassles Control Relocation Knowledge
  41. 44. The KCM Blog
  42. 45. 631.787.6200 www.KCMblog.com www.steveharney.com [email_address]
  43. 46. [email_address] Flying solo, but never alone!
  44. 47. Keeping Current Matters
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