Fortis Bond World Emerging Local

Loading...

Flash Player 9 (or above) is needed to view presentations.
We have detected that you do not have it on your computer. To install it, go here.

2 comments

Comments 1 - 2 of 2 previous next Post a comment

  • + miie9235 miie9235 4 months ago
    You do express your point pretty well, as do a lot of blogers on: FORTIS LA FEMME- CENTRE FOR WOMEN OF INTERNATIONAL STANDARD, but I wish you could add a little more references on fortis be as I find some of your points a little 'unconventional' and would appreciate to know of documented similar opinions. I<m not asking that you do research until next Thursday but ...
  • + miie9235 miie9235 5 months ago
    I agree with most of the thoughts on:Fortis Healthcare--Hospitals are benchmarked to International about fortis be but must admit I find your idea a little challenging as I have been visiting this since last Saturday and am not sure whether I agree with your thoughts... : )
Post a comment
Embed Video
Edit your comment Cancel

1 Favorite

Fortis Bond World Emerging Local - Presentation Transcript

  1. Emerging Fixed Income Local Debt December 2007
    • Introduction
    • Evolution of the asset class
    • Investment case
    • Investment process
    • FLF Bond World Emerging Local
    • Appendix
  2. Why invest in local debt
    • Strong fundamental and technical business case
      • Local debt is moving to the centre of the asset class
    • Return potential better than for external debt
      • Strong macro picture likely to drive local yields downwards
      • Currency risks skewed to the upside
    • Diversification
      • Against both developed and emerging external debt
  3. Fortis Investments’ strengths
    • Expertise to exploit this growing opportunity
      • Proven process and team continuity since 1998
      • Track record of success in tackling traditional and new drivers of returns
    • Local debt is already at the heart of our investment process
      • One of the first dedicated funds
      • 50% of our AUM
    • Clear investment philosophy and appropriate resources
      • Global practice support by growing presence in key local markets
  4. Investment Philosophy
    • There are two distinct sources of risk & return in local debt: bond and currency
    • Top-down factors drive the market and form the starting point for all our decisions
    • Detailed fundamental and technical scoring reveals expected returns
        • We focus on curve, carry and currency in deep markets
    • The opportunity set is diverse and evolving
        • We can take small, opportunistic positions in exploratory markets
    • Tight risk control can help to limit the impact of negative events in individual positions
        • We are not “slave to the index” and seek broadly diversified position
    • Introduction
    • Evolution of the asset class
    • Investment case
    • Investment process
    • FLF Bond World Emerging Local
    • Appendix
  5. Local debt The asset class
    • Local debt is sovereign or corporate bonds issued in local currency
    • The risk profile is different from external debt
      • External debt: solvency risk
      • Local debt: currency risk
    • Local debt has grown in importance as the Emerging World has stabilised
      • Wealthier countries – less need to issue debt, retire outstanding external debt
      • Stable currency markets – investors are more willing to buy local debt
      • More diversified investor base – local investors want local debt
  6. Powerful structural changes in the asset class Reduced currency risk Fiscal Balance (% GDP) Current Account Balance (% GDP) FX reserves by region (USD mn) Source: JPMorgan
  7. Market evolution favours local debt Benefits for issuers
    • Advantages for issuers
      • Avoid mismatch between local currency revenues and foreign currency debt service
      • Reduce dependence on international capital
      • Limit vulnerability to external shocks
    Domestic Debt Securities stock (USDbn)
  8. Market evolution favours local debt Benefits for investors Ave. daily trading in quarter, cash (USD bn) Trading activity in EM by instrument (%)
    • Local markets are set to continue to overtake external debt as both cash and derivative markets deepen
    • A credible local curve and wide choice of instruments now exists
    • Instruments include
      • Sovereign T-bills and T-bonds
      • Corporate bonds
      • Inflation linked bonds
      • Local currency bonds issued in international markets (eg Columbian europeso bonds)
  9. Continuing trend New issuers, new investors Domestic Debt Securities stock USDbn as of June 2006 Investor profile of local currency government debt ownership becoming more diversified
    • Introduction
    • Evolution of the asset class
    • Investment case
    • Investment process
    • FLF Bond World Emerging Local
    • Appendix
  10. Attractive yields – high potential returns
    • Structural undervaluation of many emerging currencies
    • Normalisation of curves in less developed countries
    • Higher yield, shorter duration, improving credit quality
    Source: JP Morgan Indices, Bloomberg, S&P +233 BB- 1.8 16.2 BB Turkey +159 BBB+ 5.0 8.5 A+ South Africa +158 BBB+ 2.0 6.1 A- Russia +166 BBB 5.1 8.1 BBB+ Mexico +269 BB- 6.0 10.1 BB+ Indonesia n/a n/a 6.3 7.9 BBB- India +93 BBB+ 3.8 7.2 BBB+ Hungary +216 BB+ 6.5 10.7 BBB Brazil Spread (bp) S&P Rating Duration Yield S&P Rating External Debt Markets Local Debt Markets As at 18-12-2007
  11. Diversification benefits
    • Correlations have risen (search for yield)
    • But diversification benefits remain
    Source:, Bloomberg / Fortis Investments Monthly rolling correlations: benchmark and major asset classes Jan 2003-Nov 2007
    • Introduction
    • Evolution of the asset class
    • Investment case
    • Investment process
    • FLF Bond World Emerging Local
    • Appendix
  12. Investment process Implementation Macro-economic assessment expanded to include local debt drivers Fundamentals Bonds: domestic curve and carry analysis; implied move versus market Currency: REER, carry against volatility Value Catalysts EM Debt and currency universe Portfolio Expected return Country indicators Investment decision Drivers and risks to expected return – technical and policy driven Risk monitoring and control Coherence of views, positions and portfolios
  13. Score cards based investment decisions
  14. Fundamentals Macro-economic assessment
    • Key variables affecting local debt
      • Growth, debt ratio, inflation, balance of payments
      • Fiscal and monetary policy relative to those factors
    • Example: underweight South Africa as Reserve Bank expected to hike rates to fight inflation
    Source: Bloomberg
  15. Value Bonds – primary source of returns and risk
    • Key assessment based on our macro view:
    • Do we override the curve?
    • Curve change versus consensus
    Source: Fortis Investments (%) (%)
  16. Value example Thai bonds Difference between 10 year and 2 year sovereign THB bonds (Sell 10 yr / Buy 2yr) Source: Bloomberg
  17. Value Currency – real effective exchange rate
    • Key assessment: will the market rate converge to real rate
      • Mean reversion or fundamental adjustment in REER
      • Remuneration versus volatility
    Source: Bloomberg
    • Egypt
      • Positive pressure on Balance of Payments means currency appreciation
      • Plus 8% yield
    • Risk well rewarded
  18. Catalysts Risks to expected returns - policy
    • Driven by top-down factors
      • Internal: fiscal policy, monetary policy, politics
      • External: hot money
    • Example: India is much better positioned to finance a current account deficit than Hungary
    Source: Bloomberg & Fortis Investments
  19. Catalysts Risks vs expected returns - technicals
    • Israeli bonds stretched technically despite strong fundamental support
    Source: Bloomberg
  20. Catalysts Risks to expected returns – external
    • Huge support for Philippines peso
      • Growth in remittances from overseas as global economy grows
      • Laws to encourage overseas investors
    Philippines peso Source: Bloomberg
  21. All decisions within risk-return framework Data based on score cards
  22. Opportunistic positions Outside the process, max 1% each
    • Tanzania
      • 50% of central budget comes from international donors
      • Fiscal position highly uncertain
      • Seasonal remittances
    Source: Bloomberg Tanzanian shilling June 2002-June 2007
    • Introduction
    • Evolution of the asset class
    • Investment case
    • Investment process
    • FLF Bond World Emerging Local
    • Appendix
  23. FLF Bond World Emerging Local Overview
    • JP Morgan GBI EM Global Diversified, unhedged in USD as of Jan 1, 2007.
    • This benchmark is indicative; the “best selection” approach will result in a large tracking error versus its benchmark.
    • Tracking error up to 10%
    • Indicative maximum 20% in corporate bonds
    • Indicative maximum 20% in EM bonds denominated in hard currencies (e.g. USD, EUR)
    • High returns and declining volatility
    • De-correlation from global markets
    • Low correlation of returns within the emerging country universe
    • Strategic role in asset allocation: enhanced returns with lower volatility
  24. FLF Bond World Emerging Local Performance
    • Global emerging debt fund (US$ or Euro based) invested primarily in local debt instruments of both sovereign and corporate issuers and in currency markets
    • Wider universe than the benchmark to allow further diversification
    Past performance or achievements are not indicative of current or future performance.
  25. Conclusion
    • Value exists in local bonds and currencies
    • Top-down drivers determine both the risk and the return
    • Our process reviews all aspects of expected return and risks to that return
    • Introduction
    • Evolution of the asset class
    • Investment case
    • FLF Bond World Emerging Local
    • Investment process
    • Performance
    • Appendix
  26. Biographies
    • Pierre-Yves Bareau, CIO
    • Product CIO (since ‘98)
    • Responsible for Emerging Fixed Income funds management
    • 16 years’ investment experience
    • Graduate in Finance
    • Raphaël Mar é chal
    • Fund manager (since Jun ’01)
    • Regional focus: Emerging Europe
    • Responsible for Emerging Europe FI funds and Emerging CDOs
    • 10 years’ investment experience
    • Graduate in Engineering and Post-graduate in Finance
    • Sergio Trigo Paz
    • Fund manager (since Oct ‘04)
    • Regional focus: Latin America
    • Responsible for Absolute Return funds
    • 13 years’ investment experience
    • Graduate in Economics and Finance; Post-graduate in Management
    • Didier Lambert, CFA
    • Fund manager (since ‘00)
    • Regional focus: Asia, MiddleEast, Africa
    • Responsible for Global EM funds
    • 7 years’ investment experience
    • Graduate in Banking & Finance; Post-graduate in Economic and Financial Modelling
  27. Biographies
    • Yves Oloui
    • Senior Quant Analyst
    • since Aug ‘06
    • 6 years’ business experience
    • Graduate in Applied Mathematics
    • Filip Ruszkowski
    • Junior Portfolio Manager
    • since October ’06 (FI Jul ‘05)
    • 3 years’ investment experience
    • Master’s in Management, ESCP-EAP European School of Management, Paris, Oxford, Berlin
    • Alain Defise
    • Credit Analyst
    • since Oct ’06 (FI Aug ‘00)
    • 10 years’ business experience
    • Graduate in Finance
    • Vladimir Gersamia
    • Economist
    • since Mar ’07
    • 3 years’ investment experience
    • BSc in Economics and History
  28. Biographies
    • Michal Wozniak, CFA*
    • Eastern Europe Fund Manager since Sept. 07
    • 5 years’ business experience
    • Graduate in Economics
    *Partnership with the Euro Fixed Income Investment Center
  29. Team structure Stable, successful team PORTFOLIO MANAGERS Key supporting teams within Fortis Investments * Partnership with the Euro Fixed Income Investment Centre Global Fixed Income - London Global Credit Research Team with 21 analysts London, Boston, Paris (A. Serpico, Y. de Bray, M. Baud) EM Equities teams – London, Boston, Hong Kong Local Offices Research Support – Turkey, Russia, Indonesia (C. Arras, V. Tsuprov, W. Kastami) Michel Gonnard G. Tossou (London) A. Jakubowicz L. Develay A. Macleod C. Carney (Boston) Product Specialist Dealers Pierre-Yves Bareau – CIO Yves Oloui Filip Ruszkowski Didier Lambert Raphael Marechal Michal Wozniak* Sergio Trigo Paz Vladimir Gersamia Alain Defise Quant Analyst Junior Portfolio Manager Global & Local funds Asia, ME, Africa CDO, Corporates Emerging Europe Absolute return Latin America Strategist Credit Analyst Emerging Market Fixed Income
  30. AUM evolution
  31. Local debt example Clear view of risk and return opportunities (As of December 21 st 2006)
  32. Risk management and control FLF Bond World Emerging Local
  33.  
  34.  
    • This document has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute 1) an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or financial instrument mentioned in this document or 2) any investment advice. Any decision to invest in the securities described herein should be made after reviewing the most recent version of the prospectus, which can be obtained free of charge from Fortis Investments*. Moreover, prospective investors should conduct such investigations as the investor deems necessary and should seek their own legal, accounting and tax advice in order to make an independent determination of the suitability and consequences of an investment in the securities. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice.
    • Investors should ensure themselves that they read the last available version of this document.
    • Past performance or achievements are not indicative of current or future performance. The performance data do not take account of the commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units.
    • For more information, please contact [email_address]
    • Fortis Investments is the trade name for all entities within the group of Fortis Investment Management. This document has been issued by Fortis Investment Management Belgium N.V./S.A. (address : Avenue de l’Astronomie 14, 1210 Brussels, Belgium, RPM/RPR 0882 221 433).
  35. Fund Legal Factsheet
      • Fund Manager:
      • Didier Lambert
      • Management fees:
      • 1.50% for C-shares
      • 0.60% for I-shares
      • ISIN Code:
      • Capital: LU0251280011
      • Distribution: LU0251280102
      • Institutional: LU0251280367
      • Registration: Belgium, Luxembourg and The Netherlands
      • Legal Form: Compartment of the Fortis L Fund UCITS III Sicav
      • Nationality: Luxembourg fund
      • NAV Agent: Fastnet Lux SA
      • Risk indicators:
      • Risk class: 3 on a 0 to 6 scale
      • Advised Horizon: 8 years
      • Investor Profile: Dynamic
      • The investments in Fortis L Fund Bond World Emerging Local are subject to market fluctuations and the risks inherent in investments in securities. The value of investments and the income they generate may go down as well as up and it is possible that investors will not recover their initial outlay.

+ nbravonbravo, 2 years ago

custom

4732 views, 1 favs, 2 embeds more stats

Fortis Bond World Emerging Local Latest Presentatio more

More info about this document

© All Rights Reserved

Go to text version

  • Total Views 4732
    • 4730 on SlideShare
    • 2 from embeds
  • Comments 2
  • Favorites 1
  • Downloads 83
Most viewed embeds
  • 1 views on http://www.debtsettlementirs.com
  • 1 views on http://www.debtgdp.com

more

All embeds
  • 1 views on http://www.debtsettlementirs.com
  • 1 views on http://www.debtgdp.com

less

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate. If needed, use the feedback form to let us know more details.

Cancel
File a copyright complaint
Having problems? Go to our helpdesk?

Categories