Market mechanisms for reducing GHGs from agriculture, forestry and land management
What constitutes “ good practice ” by farmers to reduce GHGs?
How best to communicate good practice
What are the impacts of climate change?
What are the opportunities for agriculture?
UK Climate Change Programme included a commitment to…… Examine the scope and feasibility of a market-based mechanism to facilitate the trading of greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions from agriculture, forestry and other land management sectors Is emissions trading for the sector possible?
IPCC 4 th Assessment Report: Projections of likely shifts in rainfall patterns
% change in rainfall by end of 21 st century, where more than 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of the change.
White areas denote regions where no consistent signal is predicted e.g. Africa.
Global warming perturbs the water cycle very profoundly
Regional model projections of climate change by end of 21 st century A1B Scenario: 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
Natural climate variability plays a significant role for the UK North Atlantic Oscillation Negative Phase Positive Phase
Recent trends in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures Unprecedented warmth of N. Atlantic due to juxtaposition of global warming and natural variability Courtesy: Rowan Sutton N. Atlantic sea surface temperatures Global sea surface temperatures N. Atlantic minus Global sea surface temperatures
Changes in Extremes Schematic of probabilities of daily temperatures Assumes that statistics of weather stay the same, which is probably not the case due to feedbacks in the climate system IPCC AR4
Soil moisture feedbacks and summertime extremes Change in summertime temperatures by 2071-2100 for A1B scenario Mean Temperature Increase in variability associated with increased summertime drying e.g. August 2003 % change in year-to-year variations
Surface ozone is damaging to plants and humans by affecting ‘lung function’.
Future projections of air quality are uncertain
New research at Reading suggests that ‘ozone-friendly’ weather (e.g. anticyclonic conditions) may be more prevalent in the future
Surface ozone levels at the height of the August 2003 heatwave.
Thresholds considered dangerous to plants and humans were exceeded in many places.
‘ Food Crops in a Changing Climate’: Royal Society Discussion Meeting 2005 Damage to rice due to high temperature event at flowering Current estimates of impacts of climate change on food production are likely to be over-optimistic by as much as 50% due to:
Damaging effects of surface ozone on crop physiology. Various studies have indicated that increased levels of near-surface ozone could reduce yields of some crops by up to 30% by 2050.
Exceedance of critical temperature thresholds at flowering leading to loss of yield.
Interactions between land use change and the water cycle affecting local weather patterns and run-off.
Experimental system - grow crops along a temperature gradient in tunnels at different CO2 concentrations to study effects of T and CO2 simultaneously
Winter Wheat Note irrigation pipes: no moisture stress
Grown at set CO2 concentrations (current or elevated) along a temperature gradient (below to above ambient)
Wheat development (temperature gradient) Cool Warm (+3 C) More rapid development, Shorter crop duration, Less radiation capture, and so lower yields Less rapid development, Longer crop duration, More radiation capture, and so higher yields
Modelling suggested : effect of doubling CO2 (1980s values!) negated by a 4 C rise in T
We found … negated by a 1-2 C rise in T
What had earlier modelling missed?
Effect of maximum temperature (only brief periods) on grain set in winter wheat (P. 69 of The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (HM Treasury, 2006) shows more of Reading’s research on this topic)
1. Socio-economic change scenarios I nternational P anel on C limate C hange, S pecial R eport on E missions S cenarios futures (IPCC, SRES) UK C limate I mpacts P rogramme refinements for UK B asic L inked S ystem World Food Trade model (BLS) 2. Climate change scenario Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 climate forcing projections 3. Consequences for land use University of Reading’s C limate L and U se A llocation M odel (CLUAM) Translates market, policy, technology and climate signals into land use changes Modelling Future Changes in Land Use Overview ( Combination of 3 modules )
IPCC S pecial R eport on E missions S cenarios futures Scenarios selected were: A2 – low globalisation/market based solutions & B2 – low globalisation/sustainability led Low globalisation High globalisation
What sort of “future world”? Local Stewardship Conventional Development Autonomy Community Interdependence Consumerism National Enterprise World Markets Global Sustainability
Basic Linked System World Food Trade model (BLS)
Constructed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Framework for analysing world food trade system
BLS is an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model system
All economic activities represented
34 national and/or regional geographical components
18 single-country national models
2 region models
14 country groupings
Market clearance (production and uses must balance)
Recursively dynamic model, i.e., works in annual steps
For given prices calculate global net exports and imports
Check market clearance for each commodity
Revise prices. When markets are balanced, accept prices as world market solution for year and proceed to next year
Process repeated until world markets are simultaneously cleared in all commodities
BLS model based on 1996 prices: 1996 was therefore the baseline year
on land use change will be made by farmers, foresters and other land owners / managers
a rapidly-changing economic-social environment dictated by society (driven by an increasing global population’s demand for goods and services, including biodiversity, access, and aesthetics) through government policy and trade
(of which climate change is but one component ) will in due course have to be accounted for in the above if development is to be sustainable
how much (more) environmental change will have to occur before society changes
(in large part) will have to anticipate not only climate change but also anticipate (and perhaps lead ) society’s expectations and legislation
Green - Vegetation, Biodiversity, Food-Fuel-Fibre Crop Production
Brown – Soil (quantity quality)
Blue - Water (quantity quality)
Red – Economics (financial viability: short- medium- long-term)
Investment essential – payback periods in which scenarios? Where are “tipping points” for investment decisions? “ Are we (nearly) there yet”?
University of Reading School of Agriculture, Policy and Development Department of Agriculture Professor Richard Ellis Dr Tim Wheeler Centre for Agricultural Strategy Philip Jones Richard Tranter School of Biological Sciences Centre for Horticulture and Landscape Richard Bisgrove Professor Paul Hadley Climate change: are you ready? 25 September 2007
HM Revenue and Customs – simplification of regulations from Summer 2007, allow 2500 litres/year without registration or payment of fuel excise duty
home-made biodiesel processor commercial processor small oil press 2500 litres/year is the fuel consumption of one small commercial vehicle doing 11000 miles at 20 mpg - or one or more diesel cars totalling 25,000 miles at 45 mpg
Risks posed by climate change to good ecological status Changing river flows and sea level (hydro-morphological parameters) Changes in flora and fauna (biological parameters) More frequent flushing of CSOs (physio-chemical parameters)