1250 Basics

245
-1

Published on

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
245
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

1250 Basics

  1. 1. 1250
  2. 2. 1250 =
  3. 3. an interim target for methane levels,thus 1250 parts per billion methanein the atmosphere.
  4. 4. This is a complement to the “350” idea, and thusthe group 1250 is meant to form a complement toBill McKibben’s 350 group, but focusing more onnear-term concerns.
  5. 5. Dr. Robert Watson, Chair of IPCC (1997-2002)
  6. 6. We need to get moving to cool the planetstemperature. Methane is the most effectiveplace for us to start.Robert Watson
  7. 7. Some differences between“1250” and “350”:350ppm CO2 is not achievable, physically or politically, for the near-term.1250ppb methane, with great effort, could be fully achieved in two decades.Achieving 350ppm CO2 will demand altering much of our economy, andprobably the engagement of major populations around the world.Achieving 1250ppb methane demands no major change of worldeconomy and does not depend on full engagement of worldpopulations.
  8. 8. Further, 350 might never be achievableunless 1250 is reached first.“1250 is the route to 350.”
  9. 9. Hansen: “There seems to be a dichotomy of possible futures: either achieve strong reductions of both CO2 and CH4 emissions or both gases are likely to increase substantially.”“There seems to be a dichotomy of possible futures: eitherachieve strong reductions of both CO2 and CH4 emissionsor both gases are likely to increase substantially.”James Hansen, Director, NASA GISS:
  10. 10. Dr. Michael MacCracken,Chief Scientist for Climate Change programs,Climate Institute, Washington, DC
  11. 11. In working to limit warming over next fewdecades, other than geoengineering, sharplyreducing emissions of short-lived species is theonly way to reverse the ongoing increase inradiative forcing.Michael MacCracken
  12. 12. Achieving 1250 will not - and cannot -be about methane cuts alone.Important caveat:
  13. 13. Just as reaching a lower, stable level of CO2 mightdepend upon getting methane under control first,so, too, getting methane lower and under controlwill demand achieving other things first.Like what?
  14. 14. 1250 might never be achievable unless werapidly move to protect the arctic.
  15. 15. Source: University of Alaska - Fairbanks/INE, 2007
  16. 16. The arctic could emit quantities of methane(and CO2) that dwarf human emissions.
  17. 17. Thus, just as 1250 is the route to 350, protectingthe arctic will be necessary to achieving 1250.
  18. 18. Methane
  19. 19. The greenhouse gas that looks both ways -towards opportunity and danger.
  20. 20. Thus, 1250 is a group focused onbuilding policy around near-term climate needs.It is centered around the concept that methanelevels can become central to short-term climate,especially at times of climate change.
  21. 21. ....other than geoengineering, sharply reducingemissions of short-lived species is the onlyway.....Again, MacCracken -
  22. 22. “short-lived species” or SLCPs =mostly, methane and black carbon cuts(with additional advantages from cutsto HFCs, VOCs, CO, etc.)
  23. 23. Last year, Hillary Clinton announced the formingof the CCAC, or Climate and Clean Air CoalitionIts goals were formed around thefindings of the recent UNEP Assessment,and it has become a part of UNEP itself.
  24. 24. United Nations Environment Program,World Meteorological Organization, 2011
  25. 25. Does this create conflict with attemptsto reduce CO2 emissions?
  26. 26. No!
  27. 27. “It would be better if all climate forcings were notpackaged together and made interchangeable with CO2 inmitigation strategies.”“Sources of different gases are usually independent andgreater progress is likely from complementary focusedprogrammes.”James Hansen
  28. 28. Thus, we quickly need to rethink climate:we need both a near-term strategyand a long-term strategyhow to keep radiative forcing as low as possiblehow to avoid tipping points, especially in the arctic, from tippingfinal stabilization pointsrevising global energy and reshaping economic systems
  29. 29. What we need are some leaders who will really lead, and somecreative approaches that will entice those fearing moving forward.Michael MacCracken
  30. 30. The UNEP Assessment, 2011:black carbon and ozone are its targets,but since methane is a prime ozone precursor,methane reductions are central to theassessment.
  31. 31. United Nations Environment Program,World Meteorological Organization, 2011
  32. 32. The climate mitigation impacts of the CH4 measures are themost certain because there is a high degree of confidence inthe warming effects of this greenhouse gas.Many CH4 measures are cost-effective and its recovery is, inmany cases, economically profitable.United Nations Environment Program,World Meteorological Organization, 2011
  33. 33. Then why isn’t this happening already?
  34. 34. Some reasons include:• Lack of understanding of the outsized value of methane.• Lack of widespread appreciation of the need for fastaction to cool the planet quickly.• Little understanding, even in the air regulatorycommunity, much less the general public, of the value ofmethane reductions in reducing background global ozone.Global Methane Initiative Concept :A Fast Action Plan for Methane Abatement, 2009
  35. 35. • Political resistance from both big CO2 emitters, and theircritics.• Big emitters want to preserve methane action as part of acheap basket of offsets for CO2; and many climateadvocates would like to keep methane action containedexclusively within Kyoto-type mechanisms, fearing alsothat a focus on near-term climate forcers will distract fromthe task of long-term CO2 reduction.• Finally, lack of any alternative mechanism on the table toadvance methane reductions at a speed commensurate totheir short term value.Global Methane Initiative Concept :A Fast Action Plan for Methane Abatement, 2009
  36. 36. UNEP Assessment: when all measures are fully implemented,warming during the 2030s relative to the present day is onlyhalf as much as if no measures had been implemented.In contrast, even a fairly aggressive strategy to reduce CO2emissions under the CO2 measures scenario does little tomitigate warming over the next 20–30 years.United Nations Environment Program,World Meteorological Organization, 2011
  37. 37. Full implementation of the identified measures would reducefuture global warming by 0.5˚C.United Nations Environment Program,World Meteorological Organization, 2011
  38. 38. There is a substantial near-term climate benefit in acceleratingimplementation of the identified measures even if some ofthese might eventually be adopted owing to general air-qualityand development concerns.United Nations Environment Program,World Meteorological Organization, 2011
  39. 39. United Nations Environment Program,World Meteorological Organization, 2011
  40. 40. The identified measures could reduce warming in the Arctic by about0.7˚C in 2040.This could reduce warming in the Arctic in the next 30 years by abouttwo-thirds compared to the projections of the Assessment’sreference scenario.....and substantially decrease the risk of globalimpacts from changes in this sensitive region, such as sea ice loss,which affects global albedo, and permafrost melt.United Nations Environment Program,World Meteorological Organization, 2011
  41. 41. Timing and sequential orderingcan become criticalin an emergency.
  42. 42. Are we in an emergency today?Yes!
  43. 43. If so, what is the greatest danger today?Methane!
  44. 44. Eastern Siberian Shelf methane emissions now equalall the rest of the oceans combined
  45. 45. N. Shakhova, I. Semiletov, 2010deep shallow
  46. 46. Photo courtesy Peter Essick/National Geographic Society“drunken” trees, from melting permafrost
  47. 47. Siberian LakesPhoto: NASA/Jesse Allen
  48. 48. 1980
  49. 49. 2007
  50. 50. Sea ice extent minimum 2012
  51. 51. Source: New Scientist, 2010Changes in Sea Ice Volume: Daily Volumecompared with the 1979-2000 averageSummer Sea Ice Volume:PIOMAS estimates July- Sept
  52. 52. Greenland melting this summerJuly 8, 2012 July 12, 2012
  53. 53. Could ice losses also be driving extreme weather events?Intense downpoursin ChicagoScorching heatin AtlantaBig snowstormin PhiladelphiaIntense coldin EuropeAll show anomolous high amplitude patterns at 500 hPaheights that tend to move slowly
  54. 54. Western RussiaAugust 1 – 8, 2010MoscowRussiaUkraineMongoliaKazakhstanCarbon Monoxide (ppbv)0 240120© 2010 Google, TeleAtlas, Europa TechnologiesNASA, NCAR, University of Toronto MOPITT>50,000 deaths
  55. 55. and at the exact same time:
  56. 56. © 2010 Reuters/Ho NewPakistanAugust 201020,000,000 displaced
  57. 57. Campo de la Cruz, Colombia© 2010 Reuters/Atlantico Govermment/HandoutOver two million people displaced - in anevent you never heard of until just now!
  58. 58. Economic costs to U.S. of droughtplus superstorm Sandy and otherextreme weather eventsin 2012 alone:Over $100 Billion
  59. 59. High latitude changes in 1000-500 hPa average thicknessin 2000-2010 relative to 1970-1999 averages,divided by seasonFall WinterSpring SummerFrancis, Vavrus: Geophysical Research Letters, 2012Note strongperturbationduring seasonafter ice is low
  60. 60. Fall WinterSpring SummerFrancis, Vavrus: Geophysical Research Letters, 2012Was superstorm Sandy’s path impacted bysea-ice loss?
  61. 61. Further temperature increaseIcecaps start to meltTundra meltsIncreased methaneIncreasinggreenhouse gasesDark groundand oceansabsorb moreheatReduced albedoOur whole society could soon find itself deeply stressed.
  62. 62. Further temperature increaseIcecaps start to meltTundra meltsIncreased methaneIncreasinggreenhouse gasesDark groundand oceansabsorb moreheatReduced albedo
  63. 63. 1250 =Twice as aggressive methane cuts as GMI or CCACArctic protection program+
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×