I Ks Consulting Telco 2012

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Telecommunication Market of Ukraine 2009-2011

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I Ks Consulting Telco 2012

  1. 1. Telecommunication Market in Ukraine in 2009-2011
  2. 2. Current State of Telecom in Ukraine
  3. 3. Total Telecom Revenues, USD, 2009-2015(forecast) In 2011 Telecommunication revenues in Ukraine made up 3,8% of GDP. + 30% growth 7 6,1 6,4 15% 6 5,5 5,7 5,2 5% 5 4,9 4,8 4 -5% F O R E C A S T 3 -15% 2 -25% 1 0 -35% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F volume,bn USD year-to-year growth rate,%3
  4. 4. Timeline. Telecommunication Events in Ukraine 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Decline of Long- Austrias EPIC distance/international long- bought Ukraines Expect sharp downturn in DLD/ILD distance telephony Ukrtelecom revenues in 2012-2015 subscribers Launch of Utel brand by Ukrtelecom Fixed Telephony Mobile penetration Growing of 3G Launch of Growing of Expect more companies get license for 3G reached 105% networks mobWimax services “smart” devices (today under military) and LTE launch 802.16e MTS got license for CDMA-450 Active growth of mobile internet Mobile Telephony traffic&revenue Sharp decline of Austrias EPIC Expect broadband penetration by 2015 to Rise of xDSL dial-up bought Ukraines reach 50% of households subscribers In may 2010 Vympelcom merged subscribers share Ukrtelecom with Kyivstar to form VimpelCom Ltd., the largest telecom operator in Broadband SigmaBleyzer fund the CIS Satellite SigmaBleyzer fund IPTV and OTT By 2015 Ukraine is expected to shift to started to purchase operators created Volia growing 100% digital broadcasting local cable expand Limited, largest providers business Television cable provider COGENT, RETN Extensive entered the data Orbiting the first Ukraine geostationery growing of fiber transfer market satellite “Lybid” is expected by2013-2014 networks Other segments (data transfer, satellite, etc)4
  5. 5. Telecommunication revenues76 Telecommunications5 revenues in absolute43 numbers, split by2 segments,bn USD10 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F Mobile Telephony Internet TV Other 100% 80% Telecommunication 60% Segments in shares, % 40% 20% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F Mobile Telephony Internet TV Other5
  6. 6. Average Monthly Bill per User 2009 2011 TV Mobile 14% 17% -3,2% TV Mobile 20% 20% Fixed Voice 24% Fixed Voice Internet 23% 45% Internet 37%6 207 UAH = 26 USD 200 UAH = 25 USD
  7. 7. Telecommunication Revenue Shares by Companies, 2011* Astelit (TM life:)) is *Kyivstar is operator in mobileoperator in mobile communications, mobile internet,communications, mobile fixed internet, fixed voice, datainternet, and data transfer, transfer, etc. In 2010 two Ukrainianetc. The company has been Other telecommunication operators —in Ukrainian market since 24January 2005. It is 44.96% 18% Kyivstar Kyivstar PJSC and Beeline-Ukraine (Ukrainian Radio Systems PJSC andowned by SCM Group and54.8% owned by Turkish 33% Golden Telecom LLC) — went into united Kyivstar, Ukrainian businessGSM operator Turkcell. Astelit unit VimpelCom Ltd. 8% * Ukrtelecom JSC was Ukrtelecom Ukraine’s monopolist 17% *MTS(previously UMC brand) is government-owned telephone company, also MTS operator in mobile communications, active in Internet service mobile internet, fixed voice, data providing and mobile 24% transfer, etc. In 2007 – an operator of markets. In 2012 Austrian mobile communication UMC, 100% investment firm EPIC bought subcompany JSC "MTS" (NYSE: a 92.79 percent stake in MBT), officially announces of turning Ukraines main fixed-line into the new brand – MTS. operator Ukrtelecom.7
  8. 8. Current State of Telecom Segments
  9. 9. Mobile Voice Communications: Saturation Mobile subscribers and penetration, mn, 2005-2011 Mobile voice market has reached saturation at this stage. 60 55,6 55,9 55,3 54,1 53,7 140% 119,8% 121,1% 120,3% 118,1% 49,2 120% 50 In case Ukrainian government 117,6% finds a way to unlock third- 40 105,1% 100% generation UMTS frequencies (currently under 30,4 80% military) and issue more 30 licenses to the main market 64,0% 60% players, revenue growth rates 20 40% in the mobile telephony segment could advance 10 20% slightly. 0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20119
  10. 10. Broadband Internet: Stable Growth of Private Subscribers 24,8 Fixed (wired)- broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, 2011 15,4 13,0 9,3 8,5 6,4 2,1 0,2 S* a in e s ld ic s pe ica ric ate cif or CI ro ra Af W Pa er St Eu Uk Am ab & ia Ar e As Th Broadband penetration in households raises with 7 per cent points per year 31% 33% 30% 28% 26% 25% 22% 20% 18% 16%10 1Q 2010 3Q 2010 1Q 2011 3Q 2011 1Q2012
  11. 11. Broadband Internet: Consolidation Process are Underway FISED BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS «ТОР 10» - «Other» SCORE 52:48 Over 500 service providers, Other 48% ТОР 10 over 1100 52% service operators11
  12. 12. Fixed/Mobile Internet Trends In 2011 Ukraine has entered list of top 10 countries with highest broadband speed (source –Pando Networks) 16th place of the world most developed FTTH networks (source FTTH Council Europe) Consolidation process are being at the place on fixed broadband market Tough Competition between operators Unequal regional penetration of broadband services FTTx is main technology (70% of new subscribers prefer FTTx) Mobile broadband market (CDMA Rev A,B) is is growing slowly due to blocking third-generation frequencies (UMTS) and not issuing licenses to the main market players MobWiMAX services are provided by two operators, still quite modest growth12
  13. 13. Fixed-line Telephony Decline of local and DLD/ILD revenues Expect the decline of the number of telephone lines 12,1 12,5 12,4 12,3 12,1 11,5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Telephone lines, mln13
  14. 14. TV: Still Majority of Free-to-air TV Consumers Subscribers Breakdown of Ukraine’sTV market in terms of technology IPTV 0,5%(including paid and free access), 2011 Satellite TV 19,5% Cable TV 35% Free-to-air TV 45%14
  15. 15. TV: Digitalization Trend Digitalization of TV. Total digitalization is expected to become in 2015 The role of revenue driver on the pay TV market of Ukraine has gradually been shifting to paid satellite access operators In April, 2012 the National Council for TV and Radio Transmission of Ukraine has resolved the issue of blocking the IPTV licenses. Therefore 4 providers have received IPTV licenses15
  16. 16. Ukraine Telecom Forecasts 2013-2015 Positive broadband growth tendency due to cities 50K+. Wave of mergers and acquisitions of small regional broadband providers Broadband ARPU expected to stop declining and rise gradually Internet providers will focus on solving two parallel tasks: extensive growth of the subscriber base and rolling out quality value-added service options. Growth rates of the number of subscribers connected via GPRS/EDGE and via 3G mobile services Growth of set top box market, complementary to TV revenues growth and digitalization goals Virtualization of IT resources, development of cloud technologies Dynamic growth of Ukrainian internet entrepreneurship, rising of startup projects (e-commerce revenue rise 80% in year-on-year terms, etc)16
  17. 17. Main specialization of iKS-Consulting —management and analytical consulting services of CEE maket 48% 33% Consulting Market research 15% Ready-made products 4% Business coachingMarketing studies Strategies iKS-Statistics iKS-ConferenceConsumer surveys iKS-Annual Reports High-Tech Marketing Business Planning iKS-TrainingsForecasts Modeling iKS-Ratings iKS-Management ToursInformation support RecommendationsAnalytical support17
  18. 18. Market Research — marketing decisions support system Marketing Promotion strategies audit Competitive analysis Prices monitoring and analysis Market potential analysis, searching for new market niches Markets segmentation and profiling Benchmarking Sales Sales efficiency analysis Forecasting Strategic planning Investment18
  19. 19. More than 250 client companies(iKS-Consulting in Russia,Ukraine, Kazakhstan)19
  20. 20. iKS-Consulting – Kiev /Ukraine Contact person: Nataliya Kunderevych Phone: +380 (44) 493-65-60 E-mail: nk@iks-consulting.ru Skype nataliya.kunderevych Address: www.iks-consulting.ru UKRAINE, Kiev, 10 Vandy Vasylevskoi Str., off. 7920
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