NASSCOM Engineering Summit 2013: The Future Planet is Smarter - Dr. Ramesh Gopinath, IBM Research - India
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NASSCOM Engineering Summit 2013: The Future Planet is Smarter - Dr. Ramesh Gopinath, IBM Research - India

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Future technology trends ...

Future technology trends

Disruptive technologies: New technologies that would impact the world

Dr. Ramesh Gopinath, , Director, IBM Research – India (IRL); Chief Technologist, I/SA

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  • Technology is being used in education in several different ways. The most talked about is the advent of Massive Open Online Courses or MOOC and they are growing phenomenally. Several other startups trying for a variety of uses of technology in education are able to secure VC funding some in GMU, some in major markets. This use of technology leads to new sources of learning interaction data sources which are growing at a very rapid rate. Consider, for example, the MOOC Coursera. In just about an year, they have reached to close to 2M learners spread across close to 200 countries. The kind of learning data they capture is around the interaction of the learner with the content, social interactions of the learner with his/her peers and educators and so on…The other example could be that of a Learning Management System (LMS): Desire2Learn. They have more than 8M learners spread around more than 20 countries and they capture data around the learning processes: For example, what are the content consumption patterns, what are the performances on formative and summative assessments and so on. They are also growing quite rapidly and have secured a VC investment of $80M to expand in the growth market countries.This whole technology-driven learning can also be used to reduce some of the waste in the education sector. And there are several sources of waste.
  • Technology is being used in education in several different ways. The most talked about is the advent of Massive Open Online Courses or MOOC and they are growing phenomenally. Several other startups trying for a variety of uses of technology in education are able to secure VC funding some in GMU, some in major markets. This use of technology leads to new sources of learning interaction data sources which are growing at a very rapid rate. Consider, for example, the MOOC Coursera. In just about an year, they have reached to close to 2M learners spread across close to 200 countries. The kind of learning data they capture is around the interaction of the learner with the content, social interactions of the learner with his/her peers and educators and so on…The other example could be that of a Learning Management System (LMS): Desire2Learn. They have more than 8M learners spread around more than 20 countries and they capture data around the learning processes: For example, what are the content consumption patterns, what are the performances on formative and summative assessments and so on. They are also growing quite rapidly and have secured a VC investment of $80M to expand in the growth market countries.This whole technology-driven learning can also be used to reduce some of the waste in the education sector. And there are several sources of waste.
  • Main Point: At the core of what makes Watson different are three powerful technologies - natural language, hypothesis generation, and evidence based learning. But Watson is more than the sum of its individual parts. Watson is about bringing these capabilities together in a way that’s never been done before resulting in a fundamental change in the way businesses look at quickly solving problemsSolutions that learn with each iterationCapable of navigating human communicationDynamically evaluating hypothesis to questions askedResponses optimized based on relevant dataIngesting and analyzing Big DataDiscovering new patterns and insights in secondsFurther speaking points:. Looking at these one by one, understanding natural language and the way we speak breaks down the communication barrier that has stood in the way between people and their machines for so long. Hypothesis generation bypasses the historic deterministic way that computers function and recognizes that there are various probabilities of various outcomes rather than a single definitive ‘right’ response. And adaptation and learning helps Watson continuously improve in the same way that humans learn….it keeps track of which of its selections were selected by users and which responses got positive feedback thus improving future response generationAdditional information: The result is a machine that functions along side of us as an assistant rather than something we wrestle with to get an adequate outcome
  • Main point: Watson use cases can be broadly broken into three classes: Ask, Discover, and Decide. Users can ASK Watson direct questions in natural language the same way they ask friends or colleagues questions. This is in contrast to reducing an inquiry to a set of keywords and receiving a set of links to sources where their answers may (or may not) lie. People who saw Watson’s victory on the quiz show Jeopardy! will be familiar with this simplest use case. Think of this as next generation chat. Second, users can DISCOVER new insights with Watson. Examples of this could be use of Watson as a research assistant such as a biotech investigator looking for the best way to treat a disease in a specific cohort of patients. Finally, users might use Watson to help them DECIDE on the best course of action. This would be for situations where users are looking for confidence-based recommendations for their next action when they have many options to chose from such as what course of treatment to prescribe to a patient or what investment choice to make.
  • Main point: Watson has already changed industries around the world by expanding the expectations that tens of millions of people have about technology and its possibilities to help them live and work better. And as Watson is deployed in more and more industries it will continue to raise the bar for business technology. In many ways, the barriers that have for so long kept IT from meeting its full potential for helping us live and work better are falling. The only barriers are our own imaginations. How can Watson help you?Further speaking points:. Moving beyond healthcare, the Watson team is exploring opportunities to help financial planners help their investment and retirement planning customers and help institutional traders make better decisions. The team is working with contact centers improve their call center and tech support services, improve enterprise knowledge management , and improve customer insight. And the team is working with governments to improve public safety, public information sharing and security. Additional information: IBM Watson has the capabilities to address grand business and societal challenges
  • 270B - Contact Babel US Contact center decision makers guide 2010; GCC Global Call Center Report 2007, BenchmarkPortal Industry Benchmark Reports 2004-2011, IBM analysis1 in 2 - Aberdeen Group. The Contact Center in a Profit-centric Service Organization May 201161% - Aberdeen Group. The Contact Center in a Profit-centric Service Organization May 20114.6% - Harvard Business Review. http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20130415-906286.html

NASSCOM Engineering Summit 2013: The Future Planet is Smarter - Dr. Ramesh Gopinath, IBM Research - India NASSCOM Engineering Summit 2013: The Future Planet is Smarter - Dr. Ramesh Gopinath, IBM Research - India Presentation Transcript

  • The Future Planet is Smarter Dr. Ramesh Gopinath Director, IBM Research - India Chief Technologist, IBM India/South-Asia © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Something meaningful is happening… The world is SMALLER. The world is FLATTER. The world is getting a whole lot SMARTER. © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Our world is becoming INSTRUMENTED + Our world is becoming INTERCONNECTED + Virtually all things, processes and ways of working are becoming INTELLIGENT © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • We now have the ability to measure, sense and monitor the condition of almost everything. 35 billion >1 billion 85% By 2015, 35 billion RFID tags will be embedded into our world and across entire ecosystems. There are more than 1 billion camera phones in existence today. Nearly 85% of new automobiles contain event data recorders. Instrumented 4 Interconnected Intelligent © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • People, systems and objects can communicate and interact with each other in entirely new ways. 2 billion 4 billion 1 trillion There are an estimated 2 billion people on the internet. There are an estimated 4 billion mobile phone subscribers worldwide. Soon, there will be 1 trillion connected devices in the world, constituting an ―internet of things.‖ Instrumented 5 Interconnected Intelligent © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • We can now respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results by predicting and optimizing for future events. 15 petabytes 1 petaflop 1 square kilometer Every day, 15 petabytes of new information are being generated. This is 8x more than the information in all U.S. libraries. New analytics enable high-resolution weather forecasts for areas as fine as 1 to 2 square kilometers. Scientists are working to prevent influenza pandemics by modeling the viruses with a supercomputer that can operate at one petaflop, or one quadrillion operations per second. Instrumented 6 Interconnected Intelligent © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • In North America, up to 22 percent of total port volume is empty containers. In a small business district in L.A., searching for parking generated the equivalent of 38 trips around the world, burned 47,000 gallons of gas, emitted 730 tons of carbon dioxide. In the U.S., a typical carrot has traveled 1,600 miles, a potato 1,200 miles, a chuck roast 600 miles, while grocers and consumers throw away $48 billion worth of food every year. In distributed computing environments 85% of computing capacity sits idle. On average, for every 100 units of energy piped into a data center, only 3 units are used for actual computing. More than half goes to cooling the servers. © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Making the Future Planet Smarter 8 © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Example 1: Cascaded Models powered by High Performance Computing Visualization Mobile (small), NMSC (large) Renewable Energy Forecasting Urban Flood Impact Environmental Sensing: Data High Resolution Weather Model (1.5kmx1.5km, 48 hours ahead) Regional Climate Model (10kmx10km, 6 months – 30 years) • • • Hydrological Models Crop Productivity Long-term effects Forest Impact (fires, Deforestation …) High-Resolution National Scale Integrated 9 © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Example 2: Smarter Energy A significant proportion of loads are deferrable in modern households including washing machines, water heaters, phevs, which contribute to peak demand. Shifting deferrable loads from peak to offpeak times reduces peak load significantly. However coordinated time shifting of user loads requires a communication infrastructure - expensive to deploy. Electric Power Consumption in Europe’s households © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Energy Distributed Micro-demand/response: nPlug Frequency & Voltage Sensing Adaptive Learning Decentralized Scheduling User Preferences Addresses Peak Load & imbalances Key Features  Requires NO communication infrastructure NOR any changes to the appliance or grid.  Simple and inexpensive for end consumer use. (Approximate cost $20 in small volumes) © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Greening the Kuala Belalong Field Studies Centre (KBFSC) • Located within the scientific zone of a primary rainforest reserve in Brunei, Borneo. • KBFSC is a ecological biodiversity field site, visited by biologists from all over the world. • Biologists stay from a week to three months. • Has produced numerous doctoral theses. • Getting to KBFSC involves a 30-150 min long boat ride (depending on water conditions). • Diesel generator powered for 9-10 hrs a day. • Although diesel is cheap in Brunei, bringing diesel to KBFSC is difficult and hard work • Solar, wind, microhydel impractical as primary • Improving energy availability while reducing diesel consumption a priority. • KBFSC is a showcase for Smarter Energy (energy efficiency and conservation technologies) © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • BEFORE Water Pump River Diesel Water Pump Pre-Filter Tank Post-Filter Tank Diesel Generator Washing machine Oven Water heater © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Water Level Sense and Pump Control (TBD) Wired Energy Meter AFTER jPlug: WiFi energy meter and power switch Solar Panel Water Pump 24x7 Power for Lights, Fans and Sockets DC Water Pump Pre-Filter Tank River Post-Filter Tank DG Controller (TBD) Diesel Fuel Monitor Pump Remote Power Switch jPlug controlled Battery Charger jPlug controlled Inverter High Efficiency LED lighting Diesel Generator Smart Fan Controller Microgrid Energy Management System Washing machine Oven WiFi Network Solar Panel Server+Network Backup Power WiFi Battery State of Charge Sensing Water heater Solar Powered Motion Controlled LED Walkway lights User scheduled appliances, jPlug enabled © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Example 3: Smarter Education The Challenge Globally we face opportunities to more effectively manage our critical investments in education. The Opportunity: Aligned Talent Management Regionally networked, globally relevant K-12 and Higher Education institutions Knowledge economy skills — new skills, new methods, new technologies, industries Students Graduates Student graduation rates below levels required by employers and regions Economic sustainability — education aligned to future workforce needs Employees Mismatch in skills and talent global economic competitiveness for regions and employers The Challenge: Lack of coordination, integration or alignment 15 © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • The Education industry is experiencing a surge in demand in growth markets. Technology-driven learning experience is on the rise. Founded: Fall ’11  Courses : 204  Universities : 34  Videos : 1200+  Content-interaction  Assessment  Social interaction 96 Countries 24 Languages 74% Non US Brazil, India, Russia, ... Coursera: 1.8M learners; 196 countries 5% Completion Learning Management     Day-to-day student-teacher-content interaction data Content consumption patterns Peer interactions Formative assessments  Learners : 8M+  Countries : 20+  Institutions : 800+ Edu-Technology Companies LMS provider 8M+ learners $80M VC fund 20M+ learners 130K+ employers Smart Content 12.5K Schools 12M+ learners Teaching/Learning 85K Schools © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Education - Personalization Personalization-enabling learning content repository Consumable Rich - Media Content Authoring and Indexing AMPLE Mobile Delivery (Cloud – Enabled) Learning Content Repository Improve student engagement Content + Intelligent Q&A IDEAL* Smart Learning Content Personalized learning Pathways Improve student achievement Early detection of at-risk students Discover intervention plan Intervention & Remedial Case Management PETALS Gaming & Simulation (HPC) for Education * IDEAL : IBM Digital Environment for Adaptive Learning Social Learning © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Education IBM Research Technology & Solutions EduPaL: Smarter Education Delivery and Learning Analytics mLearning Interaction analytics and smarter delivery. Feedback and content consumption Analytics, Offline Educational access PETALS: Personalized Education Through Analytics on Learning System Predictive Analytics on learners Longitudinal data. Risk prediction, Student Stratification and Personalized Intervention Initiatives & Engagements Partners • PATHWAYS • EDUCOMP • ERNET (Govt. of India) GCPS: PETALS approach to personalized education very well-received at Gwinett County Public School, USA and aligned with their roadmap Other Engagements: iCOS, Manipal Univ, Kasturi & Sons 18 EduPaL Field Trials in India: IIT-Bombay – Android version of EduPal trialed from Aug to Oct 2013; 150 students; 1 Faculty GOA University – USB JAVA application of EduPaL trialed from Aug to Oct 2013; 60 students; 2 Faculty EduPal Use Case: Explore Flip-the-classroom in instructor led blended learning scenarios Field-trial Goals: Measure improvement in students learning outcomes and student engagement with EduPaL technology © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Cognitive Computing – A New Era of Computing On February 14, 2011, IBM Watson changed history introducing a system that rivaled a human’s ability to answer questions posed in natural language with speed, accuracy and confidence.  Watson Wins!  Largest Jeopardy! in 5 years  34.5M Jeopardy! Viewers  1.3B+ Impressions  Over 10,000 Media Stories  11,000 attend watch events  2.5M+ Videos Views (top 10 only)  10,897 Twitter  23,647 Facebook Fans © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Cognitive Computing IBM Watson combines transformational technologies 2 Generates and 1 Understands natural language and human communication 3 Adapts and learns from user selections and responses evaluates evidence-based hypothesis …built on a massively parallel architecture optimized for IBM POWER7 © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Cognitive Computing Watson enables three classes of cognitive services Ask • Absorb and leverage incredibly vast amounts of data • Ask nuanced questions for greater insights • Understand questions in our natural language Discover • Find deep rationale for given answers • Request additional information to improve responses • Move from basic search to Discovery Decide • Ingest and analyze domain sources • Generate evidence-based decisions with confidence • Learn with each new action and outcome © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Cognitive Computing From battling humans at Jeopardy! to transforming how a business thinks, acts, and operates Healthcare Financial Services Diagnostic/treatment assistance, evidencedbased insights, collaborative medicine Investment and retirement planning, institutional trading and decision support Contact Centers Government Call center and tech support, enterprise knowledge management, consumer insight Public safety, improved information sharing, security © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Cognitive Computing – Smarter Healthcare The Watson for Healthcare Ecosystem Governments Home health agencies Education Physicians, nurses and practitioners Social programs Hospitals NGOs Public health Therapists Individual Health plans Medical devices and diagnostics Biopharmaceuticals Family Employers © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Customer Engagement Traditional approaches to engaging with customers come up short 270B 1 in 2 Calls made annually to call center costing $600B incoming calls require escalation or go unresolved 61% of all calls could have been resolved with better access to information 4.6% Market value gain from a single point customer sat gain © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • IBM Watson Engagement Advisor What it does: How it does it:  Transforms client engagement by knowing, engaging and empowering clients where they are  Answers questions and guides users through processes with plainEnglish dialogue  Develops client relationships by reaching out to clients who do not leverage traditional channels  Leverages natural language to interact with users and build knowledge and expertise  Empowers consumers and contact center agents to take informed action with confidence  Utilizes evidence evaluation and learning to provide informed and effective responses to users 25 © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Workforce The Right People, with the Right Skills, doing the Right Job, with the Right Incentives, and the Right Network Incentive mechanism for engaging experts on social engagement platforms Improve hiring quality and onboarding yields Incentives For Expertsourcing Predictive Hiring Analytics Assess and mitigate risk of staffing of deals in pipeline Resource Deployment Jobs Skills People Staffability Risk Assessment Seats Planning Incentive s Predictive Comp. Analytics Effectively deploy comp. and retention Investments Optimally assign practitioners to open seats Networ k Optimally assign seats to delivery schedule to maximize seat utilization Flexible Staffing Optimally mix regular and flex-hour agents to practitioners to maximize occupancy while © 2013 IBM Corporation meeting daily delivery SLA’s
  • Smarter Retail Delivering a smarter shopping experience. Carrefour: Implemented a groundbreaking in-store promotion system across its supermarket and hypermarket stores that enables the planning and execution of targeted campaigns to achieve enhanced customer loyalty. Developing smarter merchandising and supply chains. Max Bahr: Built a dynamic system that helps to determine optimal inventory levels based on inventory constraints, demand patterns and customer service levels. Building smarter operations. Co-op Group UK: Deployed energy efficient point- of-sale that automatically powers down after end of day processing, resulting in savings of 1.68 million kilowatt hours of electricity per year and 120K GPB in annual savings. © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Oil and Gas Enhancing exploration and production. Improving asset management. Optimizing global operations. Statoil: Links advanced real-time sensing capabilities in the field to collaborate and analyze resources across the enterprise for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOH) resulting in significant increased production and improved operational efficiency at reduced cost. International Oil Company: Implementing capability to visualize their entire operation, call and retrieve information about production effortlessly and seamlessly, and collaborate with effectiveness and consistency across the entire enterprise. HPCL: Deploying RFID for tracking LPG cylinders to automate the bottling and distribution process while also monitoring end-to-end asset movements for safety and supply chain optimization benefits. © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Cities Smarter Transportation Smarter Utilities Smarter Public Safety Stockholm implemented an intelligent toll system in the city center, which resulted in 20% less traffic, 40% lower emissions and 40,000 additional users of the public transportation system. DONG Energy in Denmark installed monitoring devices across their distribution network. The increased insight into the grid’s performance will potentially lessen outage times by up to 50% and reduce maintenance investments by up to 90%. The NYPD Crime Information Warehouse gives officers mobile access to more than 120 million criminal complaints, arrests and 911 records, as well as 5 million criminal records, parole files and photographs—resulting in a 27% reduction in crime. © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Transforming City Operations – Rio De Janeiro Initial focus – Prevent Deaths from annual flooding Expanded to manage emergency response situations Analyses weather, energy, building, transportation and water data in real time Nationwide adoption in advance of olympics and world cup Increasing efficiency in resource deployment, expanding early warnings to 48 hours, and coordinating all agencies in response © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Planet in India 31 IBM Confidential © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Communications India-based CSP uses analytics to predict revenue and negotiate the best billing rates for mobile agreements with other providers USD400,000 saved by providing insight into the profitability of agreements with other CSPs 99% accuracy of billing statements reconciled in near-real time Improved service and customer satisfaction with more accurate and timely billing Business Challenge: To provide mobile phone service seamlessly to its customers across India, this communications service provider (CSP) signed inter-circle roaming (ICR) agreements with two other CSPs. These agreements required complex billing processes that its existing systems could not manage. The Smarter Solution: The CSP has implemented an advanced billing and analytics platform that provides 360-degree visibility into predicted revenue for each agreement. It can now negotiate the agreements with greater insight into revenue-generation capacity, allowing it to set the best billing rates based on parameters such as location type, population and subscriber density. “Timely analysis of the ICR billing agreements ensures that our customers get the highest level of service at the best rate, whether on our network or another.” —Business manager
  • Smarter Banking A global bank based in India uses predictive modeling to proactively manage risk 92% shorter time to produce risk-profile reports 80% increase in sales team productivity from new customer segmentation Near-real-time results from customer risk analysis Business Challenge: The bank’s homegrown risk analysis solution could no longer handle the increased complexity and transaction volumes involved in managing risk for the bank, nor did it comply with Basel II recommendations. The Smarter Solution: An integrated risk modeling and predictive analytics solution analyzes both historical and current customer data to enable the bank to identify trends and patterns that indicate credit worthiness and risk. These patterns can be captured and used to create different customer segments, allowing the bank to target them with up-sell and cross-sell offers. The analytics engine constantly refines the data models to improve the solution’s predictive analytics and comprehensive scripting capabilities. “The bank now has an effective, efficient decision-support tool for assessing customer risk and evaluating our overall portfolio risk.” —Deputy general manager, data warehouse team
  • Building a smarter planet We’ve only just begun to uncover what is possible on a smarter planet. The world will continue to become smaller, flatter and smarter. We are moving into the age of the globally integrated and intelligent economy, society and planet. Let's work together to drive real progress in our world. © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • Backup © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Education IBM's Smarter Education Projects: Framework, partners and projects  Community College of Rhode Island Postsecondary Readiness  Combining ConnectEDU and IBM's Predictive Analytics to keep students on track to graduate Instructional Effectiveness  Gwinnett County Public Schools Postsecondary Pathways Academic Planning Learning Resources Curriculum Data and Analytics Financial Aid Tools Social Learning Access Students and Citizens Identity and Security Professional Learning Career Planning 37  Adopted IBM's Smarter Education framework to integrate advanced analytics with curricular and student achievement systems Assessment ePortfolio and Resume Collaboration Institutional Effectiveness Career Readiness Mobility Career Placement © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Education In Hamilton County, Tennessee’s Department of Education uses predictive analytics to improve student achievement. The county achieved an 8% increase in the graduation rate to 80%, 25% reduction In the annual dropout rate Test scores were higher due to curriculum and teaching changes Business problem: Students consistently scoring below state benchmarks on standardized tests; school system lacked detailed data to understand why. Solution: Analytics and advanced modeling tools to help teachers, counselors and administrators better understand adverse patterns, how they develop and how to avoid them. ―Now everyone is looking at the data, and the results speak for themselves.‖ 38 — Dr. Kirk Kelly, Director of Testing and Accountability, Hamilton County © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Education American Public University is using analytics to identify the variables crucial to student retention, identifying at-risk students and building effective intervention strategies. The university created an early warning system with 80% accuracy in identifying at-risk students with predictive analytics Business problem: American Public University System (APUS) is an online university serving 70,000 distance learners from the U.S. and more than 100 countries. The university wanted to boost student retention and academic excellence by identifying the factors driving student behavior and predicting the likelihood of an individual student staying on course or dropping out. Solution: IBM’s predictive analytics identifies the variables crucial to student retention and provided administrators with online dashboards to identify at-risk students and build intervention strategies, including better course designs, to keep students on track to graduation. “By leveraging the power of predictive analytics, we can predict the probability that any given student will drop out.” 39 - Phil Ice, APUS’ director of course design, research and development. © 2013 IBM Corporation
  • Smarter Education Roadmap for Education Transformation and Sustainability 1. Leverage data and analytics as a cornerstone of decision-making and insights for teaching faculty and administrators 2. Provide secure, authenticated access to collaboration and productivity tools for learners, teaching faculty, researchers and administrators 3. Enable mobility and pervasive access via an agile network infrastructure that supports institutionally and personally owned devices 4. Create a personalized learning environment built on a 21st century digital curriculum and tools, and individualized intervention plans for student achievement 5. Support students and employers succeed with workforce skills and post-secondary readiness that align with economic development goals 40 Smarter Education Aligning education, employment and economic sustainability © 2013 IBM Corporation