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3Q.2011 Spain Mobile OperatorForecastSpain to have 60.2 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with VodafoneEspaña ...
Stable subscriber growth continues in Spain                                           5.8% industry average subscriber gro...
ARPU growth in Spain remains negative                                            -12.2% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q...
Minutes of Use per Subscriber is increasing                             Industry average MOU/Sub is approximately 160 minu...
EBITDA growth in Spain remains negative                                             -3.6% industry average EBITDA growth i...
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?                       Total mobile subscriber connections in Spain to reach 60.2 million in 20...
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?                                                              ARPU levels in Spain to remain st...
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?                                                            Movistar to enjoy the highest profi...
IE Market Research                                                                What do we do?      We Drive Enterprise ...
About IEMR      Blue Chip client base of over 100 customers      across core telco value chain . . .       Operators      ...
About IEMR      And over 200 consulting and financial services      institutions are IEMR customers© 2011 IE Market Resear...
Thank you for reading our report. If you liked what you read, please letpeople know about this site by linking to us from ...
If you would like to purchase the full report together with the      detailed Excel sheets and forecasts, please click her...
IE Market Research                                                                                            Disclaimers ...
IE Market Research                                                                                             Disclaimers...
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3 Q11 Spain Mobile Operator Forecast Executive Summary

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IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Spain provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Spain’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2015. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2013. Mobile network operators covered for Spain include Movistar (Telefónica Móviles España, S.A.U.), Vodafone España SAU, Orange España (France Telecom España S.A.), and Yoigo (Xfera Moviles S.A.). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.



Notable highlights of the 3Q11 Spain Mobile Operator Forecast include:



· The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 5.8% in 2Q.2011, up from 1.5% in 2Q.2010. The largest operator, Movistar (Telefonica Moviles), saw its subscriber growth (YoY) rise from 0.7% in 2Q.2010 to 2.1% in 2Q.2011. Vodafone España’s subscriber growth rose from -1.0% in 2Q.2010 to 3.1% in 2Q.2011



· ARPU growth in Spain remains negative. The industry average monthly ARPU was US$ 31.62 in 2Q.2011, down -12.2% YoY. All of the major operators - Movistar, Vodafone, Orange, and Xfera - continue to lower their ARPUs in Spain. In particular, Vodafone’s monthly ARPU declined by -12.9% (YoY) to reach US$ 33.26 in 2Q.2011.

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Transcript of "3 Q11 Spain Mobile Operator Forecast Executive Summary"

  1. 1. 3Q.2011 Spain Mobile OperatorForecastSpain to have 60.2 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with VodafoneEspaña taking 30% market shareOctober 2011
  2. 2. Stable subscriber growth continues in Spain 5.8% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2011INDUSTRY AVERAGE SUBSCRIBER Chart 1: Subscriber Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %GROWTH IN THE SPANISH 12%WIRELESS MARKET IS ABOUT 6% 10% The operator-wide average subscribergrowth (YoY) was 5.8% in 2Q.2011, up 8%from 1.5% in 2Q.2010. 6% The largest operator, Movistar(Telefonica Moviles), saw its subscriber 4%growth (YoY) rise from 0.7% in 2%2Q.2010 to 2.1% in 2Q.2011. Vodafone España’s subscriber growth 0%rose from -1.0% in 2Q.2010 to 3.1% in -2%2Q.2011 -4% Orange España (France Telecom)s 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11subscriber growth increased from 1.5%in 2Q.2010 to 10.2% in 2Q.2011. Movistar (Telefónica Móviles España, S.A.U.) Vodafone España SAU Orange España (France Telecom España S.A.) Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 2
  3. 3. ARPU growth in Spain remains negative -12.2% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2011INDUSTRY AVERAGE ARPU IN SPAIN Chart 2: ARPU Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %CONTINUES TO DECLINE The industry average monthly ARPU 0%was US$ 31.62 in 2Q.2011, down - -2%12.2% YoY. -4% All of the major operators - Movistar, -6%Vodafone, Orange, and Xfera - continueto lower their ARPUs in Spain. -8% In particular, Vodafone’s monthly -10%ARPU declined by -12.9% (YoY) to -12%reach US$ 33.26 in 2Q.2011. -14% -16% -18% 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Movistar (Telefónica Móviles España, S.A.U.) Vodafone España SAU Orange España (France Telecom España S.A.) Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 3
  4. 4. Minutes of Use per Subscriber is increasing Industry average MOU/Sub is approximately 160 minutes per month MOU PER SUBSCRIBER IN THE Chart 3: MOU/Sub Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), % SPANISH WIRELESS MARKET IS ABOUT 160 MINUTES 10% The operator-wide average Minute of 8% Use (MOU) per subscriber was 160 6% minutes per month in 2Q.2011, up 4% +4.7% YoY. 2% MOU per subscriber at Movistar, 0% Vodafone and Orange were 140 -2% minutes, 187 minutes, and 164 minutes -4% respectively in 2Q.2011. -6% -8% Movistar had the lowest MOU/Sub -10% growth at -5.2% in 2Q.2011 (down from -12% 0% in 2Q.2010). 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Movistar (Telefónica Móviles España, S.A.U.) Vodafone España SAU Orange España (France Telecom España S.A.) Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 4
  5. 5. EBITDA growth in Spain remains negative -3.6% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2011 INDUSTRY AVERAGE EBITDA Chart 4: EBITDA Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), % GROWTH IN 2Q.2011 IS ABOUT -3.6% The industry average EBITDA growth 1 5% rate (YoY) in 2Q.2011 was -3.6%, up 1 0% from -12.7% in 2Q.2010. 5% EBITDA growth rate at Movistar 0% declined from -7.7% in 2Q.2010 to -9.5% -5% in 2Q.2011. -1 0% EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at Vodafone was 2.7% in 2Q.2011 (up from -27.2% in -1 5% 2Q.2010). -20% Oranges EBITDA growth declined from -25% 0.5% in 2Q.2010 to -2.9% in 2Q.2011. -30% 4Q08 1 Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1 0 Q1 2Q1 0 3Q1 0 4Q1 0 1 1 Q1 2Q1 1 Movistar (Telefónica Móviles España, S.A.U.) Vodafone España SAU Orange España (France Telecom España S.A.) Industry Tatal Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 5
  6. 6. So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Total mobile subscriber connections in Spain to reach 60.2 million in 2015 We forecast that the number of total Chart 5: Subscribers by operator (CY09 – CY15F) wireless subscriber connections in Spain will increase from 55.5 million 25,000 in the end of 2010 to 60.2 million in the end of 2015. 20,000 Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Movistar will subscribers (000s) have approximately 25 million mobile 15,000 subscribers in 2015. In our view, Movistar will continue to 10,000 be the largest operator in Spain with a 41.3% market share in 2015. 5,000 We expect that Vodafone will have 18.1 million wireless subscriber connections in Spain in 2015 (30.2% 0 market share). CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F CY14F CY15F Movistar (Telefónica Móviles España, S.A.U.) Vodafone España SAU Orange España (France Telecom España S.A.) Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 6
  7. 7. So what is IEMR’s Forecast? ARPU levels in Spain to remain stable WE EXPECT THE OPERATOR-WIDE Chart 6: Average Revenue per User (ARPU) AVERAGE ARPU LEVEL TO per month (CY09 – CY13F), EUR REMAIN AT EUR 23 – EUR 24 OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS 30 Our forecasting model does not predict major changes in the industry 25 average ARPU for the next two years. According to our model, the industry 20 average ARPU will be EUR 23.50 per EUR (€) month in 2013. 15 We expect that Vodafone’s ARPU level will be higher than those of 10 Movistar and Orange over the next two years. 5 0 CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F Movistar (Telefónica Móviles España, S.A.U.) Vodafone España SAU Orange España (France Telecom España S.A.) Average Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 7
  8. 8. So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Movistar to enjoy the highest profitability Our model is predicting that, over the Chart 7: EBITDA margins (CY09 – CY13F), % forecast period of 2011-2013, Movistar’s EBITDA margins will remain higher than those of Vodafone and 60% Orange. 50% We forecast that Movistars EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service 40% revenue) will be about 50% in 2013. We expect that Vodafone’s EBITDA 30% margin will remain at about 38% from 2012 to 2013. 20% 10% 0% CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F Movistar (Telefónica Móviles España, S.A.U.) Vodafone España SAU Orange España (France Telecom España S.A.) Average Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 8
  9. 9. IE Market Research What do we do? We Drive Enterprise Strategy in the telecoms domain by: Producing the BEST and most COMPREHENSIVE strategy coverage of the vendor and operator space in the world With over 800+ operators and 50+ vendors, we cover the strategies of more telecom operators, vendors, and markets than ALL of our competitors© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 9
  10. 10. About IEMR Blue Chip client base of over 100 customers across core telco value chain . . . Operators OEMs / ODMs Network Infrastructure Vendors© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 10
  11. 11. About IEMR And over 200 consulting and financial services institutions are IEMR customers© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 11
  12. 12. Thank you for reading our report. If you liked what you read, please letpeople know about this site by linking to us from your own website. Just copy the html code below and paste it either into a sidebar widget or a post on your own site. It would be much appreciated! Here is the code to copy/paste:<a href="http://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/3Q11-Spain-Mobile- Operator-Forecast-2011--2015-Spain-to-have-60-2-million-mobile-subscriber- connections-in-2015-with-Vodafone-taking-30-market-share-RID2717- 1.aspx">Spain Mobile Operator Forecast</a> © 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved. 12
  13. 13. If you would like to purchase the full report together with the detailed Excel sheets and forecasts, please click here and sign up as a member client. You can also call us at +1 604 327 4367 or email us at info@iemarketresearch.com© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 13
  14. 14. IE Market Research Disclaimers and DisclosuresThe opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) and IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR) about the firm(s) and/or industry appearing inthis report. Any “forward looking statements” are the best estimates and opinions of the analyst(s) and IEMR based upon information that is publicly availableand that the analyst(s) and IEMR believes to be correct. There is no guarantee that forecasts appearing in this report will materialize.The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of IEMR, aportion of which are or have been generated by consulting and contract research activities undertaken by IEMR for firm(s) appearing in this report. Theanalyst(s) and/or IEMR does not own any shares of the firm(s) appearing in this report, does not make or offer for sale shares of the firm(s) appearing in thisreport, and does not have any investment banking business with firm(s) appearing in this report. IEMR may have been contracted by firm(s) appearing in thisreport to undertake competitive intelligence, business strategy, market research, branding research, and/or public opinion research activities. No part of thecompensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by theresponsible analyst(s) in this report.Forward Looking StatementsThis report contains forward looking statements. Forward looking statements regarding firm(s) inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actualresults to differ from such forward looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continuedacceptance of the firm(s)’ products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the firm(s)’ new products/services; competitive factors; newproducts/services introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; mergers and acquisitions; systematic risks and other risksdiscussed in the firm(s)’ periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the appropriate securitiesregulators. By making these forward looking statements, the analyst(s) and IEMR undertake no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changesafter the date of this report.WarrantiesThe information contained in this report has been compiled by IEMR from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied,is made by IEMR or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. IEMR does not make any warranties, expressed or implied, as to resultsto be obtained from using this information and makes no express or implied warranties or fitness for a particular use. Clients using this report assume fullresponsibility for whatever results they obtain from whatever use the information was put to. To the full extent permitted by law neither IEMR nor any otherperson accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein.© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 14
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