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3 Q11 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary
 

3 Q11 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast Executive Summary

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This FreeSight report contains an executive summary of our 3Q11 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015. ...

This FreeSight report contains an executive summary of our 3Q11 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015.



IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Italy provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Italy’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2015. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2013. Mobile network operators covered for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Italy (Vodafone Group Plc), Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA, 3 Italy (Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited), Poste Italiane, and Coop Italia. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.



Notable highlights of the 3Q11 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast include:



· The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 2.8% in 2Q.2011, up from 1.1% in 2Q.2010. Vodafone Italy saw its subscriber growth decrease from 3.2% in 2Q.2010 to 0.7% in 2Q.2011. 3 Italy’s subscriber growth (YoY) also decreased from 1.3% in 2Q.2010 to 1.2% in 2Q.2011.



· ARPU growth in Italy remains negative. The industry average monthly ARPU was US$ 27.73 in 2Q.2011, down -0.7% YoY. TIM’s ARPU growth continues to decline. It was -12.6% in 2Q.2011, down from 1.8% in 2Q.2010. Vodafone Italy’s monthly ARPU decreased by -3.4% (YoY) to reach US$ 28.79 in 2Q.2011. While the three largest operators in Italy all had negative ARPU growth, 3 Italy saw its ARPU increase by +38.1% (YoY) in 2Q.2011.

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    3 Q11 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary 3 Q11 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast Executive Summary Presentation Transcript

    • 3Q.2011 Italy Mobile OperatorForecastItaly to have 100 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Wind taking 31%market shareOctober 2011
    • Subscriber growth has turned positive in Italy +2.8% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2011INDUSTRY AVERAGE Chart 1: Subscriber Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %SUBSCRIBER GROWTH INITALY’S WIRELESS MARKET WAS 20%2.8% IN THE LATEST QUARTER The operator-wide average 10%subscriber growth (YoY) was 2.8% in2Q.2011, up from 1.1% in 2Q.2010. 0% Vodafone Italy saw its subscribergrowth decrease from 3.2% in -10%2Q.2010 to 0.7% in 2Q.2011. 3 Italy’s subscriber growth (YoY) -20%also decreased from 1.3% in 2Q.2010to 1.2% in 2Q.2011. -30% On the other hand, Telecom ItaliaMobile (TIM)’s subscriber growth -40%increased to 2.3% in 2Q.2011, up 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11from -6.4% in 2Q.2010. Telecom Italia Mobile Vodafone Italy Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA 3 Italy Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 2
    • ARPU growth in Italy remains negative -0.7% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2011INDUSTRY AVERAGE ARPU IN Chart 2: ARPU Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %ITALY IS DECLINING 15% The industry average monthly ARPUwas US$ 27.73 in 2Q.2011, down -0.7% 10%YoY. 5% TIM’s ARPU growth continues to 0%decline. It was -12.6% in 2Q.2011,down from 1.8% in 2Q.2010. -5% Vodafone Italy’s monthly ARPU -10%decreased by -3.4% (YoY) to reach US$ -15%28.79 in 2Q.2011. -20% While the three largest operators in -25%Italy all had negative ARPU growth, 3Italy saw its ARPU increase by +38.1% -30%(YoY) in 2Q.2011. 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Telecom Italia Mobile Vodafone Italy Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA 3 Italy Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 3
    • Minutes of Use per Subscriber is increasing Industry average MOU/Sub is 158 minutes per month The operator-wide average Minutes Chart 3: MOU/Sub Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), % of Use (MOU) per subscriber was 158 minutes per month in 2Q.2011, up +7.0 % YoY. 35% MOU/Sub at TIM continues to increase and its MOU/Sub growth rate 25% was 7.7% in 2Q.2011. MOU/Sub at Vodafone Italy, TIM and Wind was 167 minutes, 167 minutes, 15% and 198 minutes respectively in 2Q.2011. 5% -5% 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Telecom Italia Mobile Vodafone Italy Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 4
    • Negative EBITDA growth at all of Telecom Italia Mobile, Vodafone Italy and Wind in 2Q.2011-7.3% INDUSTRY AVERAGE EBITDA Chart 4: EBITDA Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %GROWTH IN 2Q.2011 30%• The industry average EBITDA growthrate (YoY) in 2Q.2011 was -7.3%, down 20%from -1.4% in 2Q.2010.• TIMs EBITDA growth was -13.1% in 10%2Q.2011, down from -5.8% in 2Q.2010. 0%• EBITDA growth at Vodafone Italy wasalso negative. In 2Q.2011, Vodafone -10%Italy’s EBITDA growth was -3.4% (downfrom -3.2% in 2Q.2010). -20%• Wind’s EBITDA growth was -4.6% in2Q.2011. -30% 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Telecom Italia Mobile Vodafone Italy Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 5
    • So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Total wireless subscriber connections in Italy to reach 100 million in 2015 We forecast that the number of total Chart 5: Subscribers by operator (CY09 – CY15F) wireless subscriber connections in 35,000 Italy will reach 100 million in 2015. Given the latest quarter numbers, 30,000 our model predicts that TIM will have approximately 33.4 million mobile 25,000 subscribers in 2015. subscribers (000s) In our view, TIM and Vodafone Italy 20,000 will continue to hold similar market shares at approximately 33.2% and 15,000 30.9% respectively in 2015. 10,000 We expect that Wind will have 23.6 million wireless subscribers in 2015 5,000 (23.5% market share). 0 CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F CY14F CY15F Telecom Italia Mobile Vodafone Italy Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA 3 Italy Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 6
    • So what is IEMR’s Forecast? ARPU levels in Italy to remain stable WE EXPECT THE OPERATOR-WIDE Chart 6: Average Revenue per User (ARPU) AVERAGE ARPU LEVEL TO per month (CY09 – CY13F), EUR REMAIN AT EUR 17 – EUR 18 OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS 25 Our forecasting model predicts that the industry average ARPU in Italy will 20 be declining over the next two years. Monthly ARPU (EUR) The industry average ARPU will be about EUR 17.50 per month in 2013, 15 according to our model. We expect that Vodafone Italy’s 10 ARPU level will remain the highest among the largest operators over the forecast period. 5 0 CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F Telecom Italia Mobile Vodafone Italy Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA 3 Italy Average Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 7
    • So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Telecom Italia Mobile to enjoy the highest profitability Vodafone Italy enjoys the highest Chart 7: EBITDA margins (CY09 – CY13F), % EBITDA margin among the Italian mobile operators. We expect that 60% Vodafone Italy’s EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service 50% revenue) will be about 55% in 2013. Our model is predicting that TIM’s 40% EBITDA margin will be about 46.6% in 2013. 30% We forecast that Wind’s EBITDA margin will remain at about 47% from 20% 2012 to 2013. 10% 0% CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F Cy13F Telecom Italia Mobile Vodafone Italy Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA 3 Italy Average Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 8
    • IE Market Research What do we do? We Drive Enterprise Strategy in the telecoms domain by: Producing the BEST and most COMPREHENSIVE strategy coverage of the vendor and operator space in the world With over 800+ operators and 50+ vendors, we cover the strategies of more telecom operators, vendors, and markets than ALL of our competitors© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 9
    • About IEMR Blue Chip client base of over 100 customers across core telco value chain . . . Operators OEMs / ODMs Network Infrastructure Vendors© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 10
    • About IEMR And over 200 consulting and financial services institutions are IEMR customers© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 11
    • Thank you for reading our report. If you liked what you read, please letpeople know about this site by linking to us from your own website. Just copy the html code below and paste it either into a sidebar widget or a post on your own site. It would be much appreciated! Here is the code to copy/paste:<a href="https://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/3Q11-Italy-Mobile- Operator-Forecast-2011--2015-Italy-to-have-100-million-mobile-subscriber- connections-in-2015-with-Vodafone-Italy-taking-31-market-share-RID2720- 1.aspx">Italy Mobile Operator Forecast</a> © 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved. 12
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