3 Q11 Czech Republic Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary
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3 Q11 Czech Republic Mobile Operator Forecast Executive Summary

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This FreeSight report contains an executive summary of our 3Q11 Czech Republic Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015. ...

This FreeSight report contains an executive summary of our 3Q11 Czech Republic Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015.



IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on the Czech Republic provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Czech Republic’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2015. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2013. Mobile network operators covered for the Czech Republic include: Telefónica O2 Czech Republic a.s., T-Mobile Czech Republic a.s., Vodafone Czech Republic a.s., and MobilKom, a.s. (U:fon). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.updates.



Notable highlights of the 3Q11 Czech Republic Mobile Operator Forecast include:



· The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 1.3% in 2Q.2011, up from 1.2% in 2Q.2010. The largest operator, T-Mobile, saw its subscriber growth (YoY) decline from 0.6% in 2Q.2010 to -0.7% in 2Q.2011. Telefónica O2\'s subscriber growth rose from 0.1% in 2Q.2010 to 0.5% in 2Q.2011. On the other hand, Vodafone’s subscriber growth remained positive at 6.3% in 2Q.2011, up from 3.6% in 2Q.2010.



· ARPU is decreasing in the Czech wireless market. The industry average monthly ARPU was US$ 24.05 in 2Q.2011, down -13.7% YoY. Wireless carriers in the Czech Republic continue to lower their ARPUs. Vodafone’s monthly ARPU decreased by -15.3% (YoY) to reach US$ 26.35 in 2Q.2011. T-Mobile saw the largest decline in ARPU numbers with its ARPU declining by -16.0% in 2Q.2011.

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    3 Q11 Czech Republic Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary 3 Q11 Czech Republic Mobile Operator Forecast Executive Summary Presentation Transcript

    • 3Q.2011 Czech Republic MobileOperator ForecastCzech to have 13.8 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with T-Mobiletaking 39% market shareOctober 2011
    • Subscriber growth is increasing in the Czech Republic 1.3% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2011INDUSTRY AVERAGE Chart 1: Subscriber Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IN THECZECH REPUBLIC WIRELESS 15%MARKET REMAINS NEGATIVE 10% The operator-wide averagesubscriber growth (YoY) was 1.3% in 5%2Q.2011, up from 1.2% in 2Q.2010. The largest operator, T-Mobile, saw 0%its subscriber growth (YoY) declinefrom 0.6% in 2Q.2010 to -0.7% in -5%2Q.2011. -10% Telefónica O2s subscriber growthrose from 0.1% in 2Q.2010 to 0.5% in -15%2Q.2011. On the other hand, Vodafone’s -20%subscriber growth remained positive 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11at 6.3% in 2Q.2011, up from 3.6% in2Q.2010. Telefónica O2 T-Mobile Vodafone Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 2
    • The industry average ARPU is decreasing -13.7% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2011INDUSTRY AVERAGE ARPU IN THE Chart 2: ARPU Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %CZECH REPUBLIC IS DECLINING 10% The industry average monthly ARPUwas US$ 24.05 in 2Q.2011, down - 5%13.7% YoY. Wireless carriers in the Czech 0%Republic continue to lower theirARPUs. -5% Vodafone’s monthly ARPUdecreased by -15.3% (YoY) to reach -10%US$ 26.35 in 2Q.2011. T-Mobile saw the largest decline in -15%ARPU numbers with its ARPUdeclining by -16.0% in 2Q.2011. -20% 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Telefónica O2 T-Mobile Vodafone Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 3
    • Minutes of Use per Subscriber is decreasing Industry average MOU/Sub is 147 minutes per month The operator-wide average Minute of Chart 3: MOU/Sub Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), % Use (MOU) per subscriber in 2Q.2011 20% was 147 minutes per month, which is the same as in 2Q.2010. 15% MOU/Sub at Vodafone continues to be higher than MOU/Sub at Telefónica 10% O2 and T-Mobile. MOU per subscriber at Telefónica 5% O2, T-Mobile, and Vodafone was 154 minutes, 128 minutes, and 175 0% minutes respectively in 2Q.2011. -5% -10% 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Telefónica O2 T-Mobile Vodafone Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 4
    • Negative EBITDA growth at Telefónica O2 and T-Mobile in 2Q.2011 -6.2% INDUSTRY-AVERAGE EBITDA Chart 4: EBITDA Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), % GROWTH IN 3Q.2011 30% • The industry average EBITDA growth rate (YoY) in 2Q.2011 was -6.2%, up 20% from -15.2% in 2Q.2010. 10% • EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at Telefónica O2 was -10.1% in 2Q.2011, 0% down from -2.2% in 2Q.2010. -10% • EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at T-Mobile was -5.0% in 2Q.2011 (up from -26.4% -20% in 2Q.2010). -30% • Vodafones EBITDA growth was 0% in 2Q.2011, up from -9.4% in 2Q.2010. -40% 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Telefónica O2 T-Mobile Vodafone Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 5
    • So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Total mobile subscriber connections to reach 13.8 million in 2015 We forecast that the number of total Chart 5: Subscribers by operator (CY09 – CY15F) wireless subscriber connections in the Czech Republic will increase from 6,000 13.6 million in the end of 2010 to 13.8 million in the end of 2015. 5,000 Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that T-Mobile will 4,000 subscribers (000s) have approximately 5.4 million mobile subscribers in 2015. 3,000 In our view, T-Mobile will continue to hold a dominant position in the Czech Republic with a 38.8% market 2,000 share in 2015. We forecast that Telefónica O2 will 1,000 have 4.9 million wireless subscribers in 2015 (35.4% market share) and 0 Vodafone will have 3.4 million CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F CY14F CY15F wireless subscribers in 2015 (24.7% market share). Telefónica O2 T-Mobile Vodafone MobilKom Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 6
    • So what is IEMR’s Forecast? ARPU levels in the Czech Republic to remain stable WE EXPECT THE OPERATOR-WIDE Chart 6: Average Revenue per User (ARPU) AVERAGE ARPU LEVEL TO per month (CY09 – CY13F), CZK REMAIN AT APPROXIMATELY CZK 410 OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS 600 Our forecasting model does not predict major changes in the industry 500 average ARPU for the next two years. The industry average ARPU will be 400 about CZK 410 per month in 2013, according to our model. 300 We expect that Vodafone’s ARPU level will continue to be higher than 200 those of Telefónica O2 and T-Mobile over the next two years. 100 0 CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F Telefónica O2 T-Mobile Vodafone Average Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 7
    • So what is IEMR’s Forecast? T-Mobile to enjoy the highest profitability T-Mobile will be enjoying the highest Chart 7: EBITDA margins (CY09 – CY13F), % level of profitability in the Czech Republic’s wireless market during the 60% forecast period. Our model is predicting that T- 50% Mobile’s EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will 40% remain stable at about 55% from 2011 to 2012. 30% We forecast that Telefónica O2’s EBITDA margin will increase from 20% 48.4% in 2010 to 51.5% in 2012. Vodafone’s EBITDA margin will 10% remain lower than those of its competitors at about 32% from 2012 to 2013. 0% CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F Telefónica O2 T-Mobile Vodafone Average Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 8
    • IE Market Research What do we do? We Drive Enterprise Strategy in the telecoms domain by: Producing the BEST and most COMPREHENSIVE strategy coverage of the vendor and operator space in the world With over 800+ operators and 50+ vendors, we cover the strategies of more telecom operators, vendors, and markets than ALL of our competitors© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 9
    • About IEMR Blue Chip client base of over 100 customers across core telco value chain . . . Operators OEMs / ODMs Network Infrastructure Vendors© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 10
    • About IEMR And over 200 consulting and financial services institutions are IEMR customers© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 11
    • Thank you for reading our report. If you liked what you read, please letpeople know about this site by linking to us from your own website. Just copy the html code below and paste it either into a sidebar widget or a post on your own site. It would be much appreciated! Here is the code to copy/paste: <a href="https://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/3Q11-Czech- Mobile-Operator-Forecast-2011--2015-Czech-to-have-13-8-million-mobile-subscriber-connections-in-2015-with-T-Mobile-taking-39-market-share-RID2729- 1.aspx">Czech Mobile Operator Forecast</a> © 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved. 12
    • If you would like to purchase the full report together with the detailed Excel sheets and forecasts, please click here and sign up as a member client. You can also call us at +1 604 327 4367 or email us at info@iemarketresearch.com© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 13
    • IE Market Research Disclaimers and DisclosuresThe opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) and IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR) about the firm(s) and/or industry appearing inthis report. Any “forward looking statements” are the best estimates and opinions of the analyst(s) and IEMR based upon information that is publicly availableand that the analyst(s) and IEMR believes to be correct. There is no guarantee that forecasts appearing in this report will materialize.The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of IEMR, aportion of which are or have been generated by consulting and contract research activities undertaken by IEMR for firm(s) appearing in this report. Theanalyst(s) and/or IEMR does not own any shares of the firm(s) appearing in this report, does not make or offer for sale shares of the firm(s) appearing in thisreport, and does not have any investment banking business with firm(s) appearing in this report. IEMR may have been contracted by firm(s) appearing in thisreport to undertake competitive intelligence, business strategy, market research, branding research, and/or public opinion research activities. No part of thecompensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by theresponsible analyst(s) in this report.Forward Looking StatementsThis report contains forward looking statements. Forward looking statements regarding firm(s) inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actualresults to differ from such forward looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continuedacceptance of the firm(s)’ products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the firm(s)’ new products/services; competitive factors; newproducts/services introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; mergers and acquisitions; systematic risks and other risksdiscussed in the firm(s)’ periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the appropriate securitiesregulators. By making these forward looking statements, the analyst(s) and IEMR undertake no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changesafter the date of this report.WarrantiesThe information contained in this report has been compiled by IEMR from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied,is made by IEMR or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. IEMR does not make any warranties, expressed or implied, as to resultsto be obtained from using this information and makes no express or implied warranties or fitness for a particular use. Clients using this report assume fullresponsibility for whatever results they obtain from whatever use the information was put to. To the full extent permitted by law neither IEMR nor any otherperson accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein.© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 14
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