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3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast   Executive Summary
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3 Q11 Canada Mobile Forecast Executive Summary

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This FreeSight report contains an executive summary of our 3Q11 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015. …

This FreeSight report contains an executive summary of our 3Q11 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015.



IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Canada provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Canada’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2015. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2013. Operators covered for Canada include: Bell Mobility Inc., Rogers Wireless Inc., Telus Mobility, MTS Allstream Inc., SaskTel (Saskatchewan Telecommunications), Virgin Mobile Canada, Videotron G.P., and New Entrants (incl. Mobilicity, Public Mobile, and Wind Mobile). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.



Notable highlights of the 3Q11 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast include:



· Stable subscriber growth continues in Canada. The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 6.7% in 2Q.2011, down from 6.9% in 2Q.2010. Bell Mobility saw its subscriber growth (YoY) decrease from 6.3% in 2Q.2010 to 2.4% in 2Q.2011. Subscriber growth (YoY) at Rogers Wireless improved from 5.7% in 2Q.2010 to 5.9% in 2Q.2011. Telus Mobility\'s subscriber growth (YoY) fell from 6.5% in 2Q.2010 to 5.9% in 2Q.2011.



ARPU growth in Canada has turned negative. The industry average monthly ARPU was C$57.03 in 2Q.2011, down from C$58.70 in 2Q. 2010. ARPU growth rate at Bell Mobility declined from 4.7% in 2Q.2010 to -1.0% in 2Q.2011. ARPU growth rate (YoY) at Rogers Wireless declined from 0.8% in 2Q.2010 to -5.2% in 2Q.2011. ARPU growth rate at Telus Mobility was 3.3% in 2Q.2011, up from -2.3% in 2Q.2010.

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  • 1. 3Q.2011 Canada Mobile OperatorForecastCanada to have 32.1 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Bell Mobilitytaking 25% market shareOctober 2011
  • 2. Stable subscriber growth continues in Canada 6.7% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2011INDUSTRY AVERAGE SUBSCRIBER Chart 1: Subscriber Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %GROWTH IN THE CANADIANWIRELESS MARKET REMAINS IN 12%THE RANGE OF 6%-8% 10% The operator-wide average subscribergrowth (YoY) was 6.7% in 2Q.2011,down from 6.9% in 2Q.2010. 8% Bell Mobility saw its subscriber growth(YoY) decrease from 6.3% in 2Q.2010 6%to 2.4% in 2Q.2011. Subscriber growth (YoY) at Rogers 4%Wireless improved from 5.7% in2Q.2010 to 5.9% in 2Q.2011. 2% Telus Mobilitys subscriber growth(YoY) fell from 6.5% in 2Q.2010 to 5.9% 0%in 2Q.2011. 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Bell Mobility Inc. Rogers Wireless Inc. Telus Mobility Industry Total Source: IEMR © 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved. 2
  • 3. ARPU growth in Canada has turned negative -2.8% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2011INDUSTRY AVERAGE ARPU IN Chart 2: ARPU Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %CANADA IS STABILIZING 6% The industry average monthly ARPUwas C$57.03 in 2Q.2011, down from 4%C$58.70 in 2Q. 2010. 2% ARPU growth rate at Bell Mobilitydeclined from 4.7% in 2Q.2010 to - 0%1.0% in 2Q.2011. -2% ARPU growth rate (YoY) at RogersWireless declined from 0.8% in -4%2Q.2010 to -5.2% in 2Q.2011. -6% ARPU growth rate at Telus Mobility -8%was 3.3% in 2Q.2011, up from -2.3%in 2Q.2010. -10% 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Bell Mobility Inc. Rogers Wireless Inc. Telus Mobility Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 3
  • 4. Minutes of Use per Subscriber is decreasing Industry average MOU/Sub is approximately 355 minutes per month The operator-wide average Minute of Chart 3: MOU/Sub Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), % Use (MOU) per subscriber was 355 4% minutes per month in 2Q.2011, down -8.5% YoY. 2% MOU per subscriber at Bell Mobility, 0% Rogers Wireless and Telus Mobility was 282 minutes, 475 minutes, and -2% 337 minutes respectively in 2Q.2011. -4% MOU/Sub growth was negative at both Rogers Wireless and Telus -6% Mobility. MOU/Sub growth (YoY) at -8% Rogers Wireless was -4.2% in 2Q.2011 which is the same as in -10% 2Q.2010. -12% On the other hand Bell Mobility saw 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 its MOU/Sub growth rise from -2.1% in 2Q.2010 to -0.7% in 2Q.2011. Bell Mobility Inc. Rogers Wireless Inc. Telus Mobility Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 4
  • 5. EBITDA growth in Canada remains positive -1.7% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2011 -1.7% INDUSTRY-AVERAGE EBITDA Chart 4: EBITDA Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), % GROWTH IN 2Q.2011 25% The industry average EBITDA growth rate (YoY) in 2Q.2011 was -1.7%, down 20% from 5.2% in 2Q.2010. 15% EBITDA growth rate at Bell Mobility 10% rose from -2.1% in 2Q.2010 to -1.7% in 2Q.2011. 5% EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at Rogers 0% declined from 9.8% in 2Q.2010 to -3.1% in 2Q.2011. -5% EBITDA growth rate at Telus Mobility -10% was 8.0% in 2Q.2011, up from 2.3% in -15% 2Q.2010. 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Bell Mobility Inc. Rogers Wireless Inc. Telus Mobility Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 5
  • 6. So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Total mobile subscriber connections in Canada to reach 32.1 million in 2015 We forecast that the number of total Chart 5: Subscribers by operator (CY09 – CY15F) wireless subscriber connections in Canada will increase from 25.4 million 12,000 in the end of 2010 to 32.1 million in the end of 2015. 10,000 Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Bell Mobility 8,000 subscribers (000s) will have approximately 7.9 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015. 6,000 We expect that Rogers Wireless will have 11 million wireless subscribers 4,000 in 2015 (34.2% market share). In our view, Telus Mobility will have 2,000 8.3 million mobile subscribers in Canada with a 25.7% market share in 0 2015. CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F CY14F CY15F Bell Mobility Inc. Rogers Wireless Inc. Telus Mobility Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 6
  • 7. So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Industry average ARPU in Canada will be stable over the next two years WE EXPECT THE OPERATOR-WIDE Chart 6: Average Revenue per User (ARPU) AVERAGE ARPU LEVEL TO per month (CY09 – CY13F), CAD REMAIN STABLE OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS 70 Our forecasting model predicts that 60 monthly ARPU levels in Canada will remain at about C$58 – C$59 over the Argentine Peso (ARS) 50 forecast period, 2011 - 2013. We expect that Telus Mobility’s 40 ARPU level will be the highest in Canada’s wireless market in 2013 at 30 C$62.60. 20 10 0 CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F Bell Mobility Inc. Rogers Wireless Inc. Telus Mobility Average Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 7
  • 8. So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Rogers Wireless to enjoy higher profitability than Bell and Telus WE EXPECT ROGERS WIRELESS Chart 7: EBITDA margins (CY09 – CY13F), % TO ENJOY HIGHEST EBITDA MARGIN OVER THE NEXT TWO 50% YEARS Our model is predicting that, over the forecast period of 2011-2013, Rogers 40% Wireless’s EBITDA margins will remain higher than those of Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility at about 30% 46% - 48%. We forecast that Bell Mobilitys 20% EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will be approximately 41% in 2013. 10% We expect that Telus Mobility’s EBITDA margin will increase from 0% 39.1% in 2010 to 46.7% in 2013 CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F Bell Mobility Inc. Rogers Wireless Inc. Telus Mobility Average Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 8
  • 9. IE Market Research What do we do? We Drive Enterprise Strategy in the telecoms domain by: Producing the BEST and most COMPREHENSIVE strategy coverage of the vendor and operator space in the world With over 800+ operators and 50+ vendors, we cover the strategies of more telecom operators, vendors, and markets than ALL of our competitors© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 9
  • 10. About IEMR Blue Chip client base of over 100 customers across core telco value chain . . . Operators OEMs / ODMs Network Infrastructure Vendors© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 10
  • 11. About IEMR And over 200 consulting and financial services institutions are IEMR customers© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 11
  • 12. Thank you for reading our report. If you liked what you read, please letpeople know about this site by linking to us from your own website. Just copy the html code below and paste it either into a sidebar widget or a post on your own site. It would be much appreciated! Here is the code to copy/paste: <a href="https://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/3Q11-Canada- Mobile-Operator-Forecast-2011--2015-Canada-to-have-32-1-million-mobile- subscriber-connections-in-2015-with-Bell-Mobility-taking-25-market-share- RID2712-1.aspx">Canada Mobile Operator Forecast</a> © 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved. 12
  • 13. If you would like to purchase the full report together with the detailed Excel sheets and forecasts, please click here and sign up as a member client. You can also call us at +1 604 327 4367 or email us at info@iemarketresearch.com© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 13
  • 14. IE Market Research Disclaimers and DisclosuresThe opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) and IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR) about the firm(s) and/or industry appearing inthis report. Any “forward looking statements” are the best estimates and opinions of the analyst(s) and IEMR based upon information that is publicly availableand that the analyst(s) and IEMR believes to be correct. There is no guarantee that forecasts appearing in this report will materialize.The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of IEMR, aportion of which are or have been generated by consulting and contract research activities undertaken by IEMR for firm(s) appearing in this report. Theanalyst(s) and/or IEMR does not own any shares of the firm(s) appearing in this report, does not make or offer for sale shares of the firm(s) appearing in thisreport, and does not have any investment banking business with firm(s) appearing in this report. IEMR may have been contracted by firm(s) appearing in thisreport to undertake competitive intelligence, business strategy, market research, branding research, and/or public opinion research activities. No part of thecompensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by theresponsible analyst(s) in this report.Forward Looking StatementsThis report contains forward looking statements. Forward looking statements regarding firm(s) inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actualresults to differ from such forward looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continuedacceptance of the firm(s)’ products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the firm(s)’ new products/services; competitive factors; newproducts/services introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; mergers and acquisitions; systematic risks and other risksdiscussed in the firm(s)’ periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the appropriate securitiesregulators. By making these forward looking statements, the analyst(s) and IEMR undertake no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changesafter the date of this report.WarrantiesThe information contained in this report has been compiled by IEMR from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied,is made by IEMR or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. IEMR does not make any warranties, expressed or implied, as to resultsto be obtained from using this information and makes no express or implied warranties or fitness for a particular use. Clients using this report assume fullresponsibility for whatever results they obtain from whatever use the information was put to. To the full extent permitted by law neither IEMR nor any otherperson accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein.© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 14
  • 15. IE Market Research Disclaimers and DisclosuresDissemination of ResearchIEMR endeavours to make all reasonable efforts to provide research simultaneously to all eligible clients. However, IEMR’s premium clients may have access toIEMR research prior to research being disseminated more widely. IEMR’s research is posted to our proprietary website to ensure eligible clients receiveintelligence in a timely manner. Additional distribution may be done by IEMR’s sales personnel via email, fax or regular mail. Clients may also receive our researchvia third party vendors. Please contact our research department at 1-888-322-IEMR for more information regarding our research.Licensing AgreementAny survey data, forecasting data, and research reports and the information contained therein are the intellectual property of IEMR, and permission to use thesame is granted on a single-user or multi-user basis to all Clients. IE Market Research Corp. will not distribute in any way, shape, or form results of contractresearch that would, in any way, harm the competitive position of its Client.IE Market Research Corp. will be entitled to the copyright in all reports and other documents or electronic media produced by it in connection with workundertaken independently of any Client contract. In performing services, IE Market Research Corp. may use without limitation any of its property includinghardware, software, IE Market Research Corp.’s proprietary products and confidential information and trade secrets of IE Market Research Corp. Such propertywill remain the property of IE Market Research Corp. and the Client shall acquire no right or interest in it.IEMR’s licensing agreement is perhaps the most liberal in the industry. Two licensing options are available for our Clients:• Single-user License: Allows Clients to read, print, and distribute printed copies of IEMR survey data, forecasting data, and research reports (and all purchasedelements therein) within the Client’s organization, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. Clients are also allowed to use and manipulate this data for theirinternal corporate purposes, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. A Single-user License does not give the Client the right to electronically distribute IEMRsurvey data, forecasting data, and research reports to any other individual either within an organization or outside it.• Multi-user License: Allows Clients to read, print, and distribute printed and electronic copies of IEMR survey data, forecasting data, and research reports (and allpurchased elements therein) within the Client’s organization, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. Clients are also allowed to use and manipulate this datafor their internal corporate purposes, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. A Multi-user License does not give the Client the right to distribute IEMR surveydata, forecasting data, and research reports to other individuals outside the Client’s organization.CONSUMEREADY™ and EXPORTREADY™ are registered trademarks of IEMR. Reproduction of material contained herein, in whole or in part or use for anypublic purpose is only permitted with the prior approval of IEMR. Courtesy copies of reproduced material are appreciated. Electronic reuse of the data containedherein is strictly prohibited.© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 15

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