3 Q11 Australia Mobile Operator Forecast Executive Summary

661 views
593 views

Published on

This FreeSight report contains an executive summary of our 3Q11 Australia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015.



IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Spain provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Spain’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2015. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2013. Mobile network operators covered for Spain include Movistar (Telefónica Móviles España, S.A.U.), Vodafone España SAU, Orange España (France Telecom España S.A.), and Yoigo (Xfera Moviles S.A.). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.



Notable highlights of the 3Q11 Spain Mobile Operator Forecast include:



· Stable subscriber growth continues in Australia. The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 11.2% in 2Q.2011, up from 9.1% in 2Q.2010. The largest operator, Telstra, saw its subscriber growth (YoY) rise from 3.6% in 2Q.2010 to 15.7% in 2Q.2011. On the other hand, SingTel Optus’s subscriber growth was 4.7% in 2Q.2011, down from 8.6% in 2Q.2010.



· The industry average monthly ARPU was US$ 52.26 in 2Q.2011, up +0.1% YoY. At the operator level, Vodafone Hutchison Australia’s monthly ARPU increased by 8.1% (YoY) to reach US$ 56.07 in 2Q.2011. On the other hand, ARPU growth (YoY) at Telstra declined from 2.5% in 2Q.2010 to -2.6% in 2Q.2011. ARPU at VHA is now higher than ARPU at Telstra and SingTel Optus.

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
661
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
7
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

3 Q11 Australia Mobile Operator Forecast Executive Summary

  1. 1. 3Q.2011 Australia Mobile OperatorForecastAustralia to have 36.9 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Optustaking 30% market shareOctober 2011
  2. 2. Stable subscriber growth continues in Australia 11.2% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2011INDUSTRY AVERAGE Chart 1: Subscriber Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %SUBSCRIBER GROWTH INAUSTRALIA’S WIRELESS MARKET 80%IS INCREASING 70% The operator-wide averagesubscriber growth (YoY) was 11.2% 60%in 2Q.2011, up from 9.1% in 50%2Q.2010. The largest operator, Telstra, saw 40%its subscriber growth (YoY) rise from 30%3.6% in 2Q.2010 to 15.7% in2Q.2011. 20% On the other hand, SingTel Optus’ssubscriber growth was 4.7% in 10%2Q.2011, down from 8.6% in 0%2Q.2010. 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Subscriber growth at Vodafone Telstra SingTel OptusHutchison Australia (VHA) was 5.5% Vodafone (VHA) Hutchisonin 2Q.2011. Virgin Mobile Australia Pty Ltd Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 2
  3. 3. ARPU growth in Australia is now positive +0.1% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2011THE INDUSTRY AVERAGE ARPU IN Chart 2: ARPU Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %AUSTRALIA IS STABILIZING 25% The industry average monthly ARPUwas US$ 52.26 in 2Q.2011, up +0.1% 20%YoY. 15% At the operator level, VodafoneHutchison Australia’s monthly ARPU 10%increased by 8.1% (YoY) to reach US$ 5%56.07 in 2Q.2011. 0% On the other hand, ARPU growth(YoY) at Telstra declined from 2.5% in -5%2Q.2010 to -2.6% in 2Q.2011. -10% ARPU at VHA is now higher thanARPU at Telstra and SingTel Optus. -15% 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Telstra SingTel Optus Vodafone (VHA) Hutchison Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 3
  4. 4. Minutes of Use per Subscriber is decreasing Industry average MOU/Sub is about 217 minutes per month The operator-wide average Minute of Chart 3: MOU/Sub Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), % Use (MOU) per subscriber was 217 25% minutes per month in 2Q.2011, down -5.9% YoY. 20% MOU/Sub at SingTel Optus 15% continues to be higher than MOU/Sub at Telstra and VHA. 10% MOU per subscriber at VHA, Telstra 5% and SingTel Optus were 232 minutes, 184 minutes, and 282 minutes 0% respectively in 2Q.2011. -5% -10% -15% 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Telstra SingTel Optus Vodafone (VHA) Hutchison Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 4
  5. 5. Positive EBITDA growth at all of Telstra, SingTel Optus and VHA in 2Q.2011 +4.1% INDUSTRY-AVERAGE EBITDA Chart 4: EBITDA Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), % GROWTH IN 2Q.2011 100% • The industry average EBITDA growth rate (YoY) in 2Q.2011 was 4.1%, down 80% from 5.4% in 2Q.2010. 60% • All of the major three operators 40% enjoyed positive EBITDA growth (YoY) in 2Q.2011. 20% • EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at Telstra 0% was 5.9% in 2Q.2011 (up from -0.9% in 2Q.2010). -20% • VHA’s EBITDA growth (YoY) was -40% 5.0% in 2Q.2011 (down from 17.4% in -60% 2Q.2010). 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Telstra SingTel Optus Vodafone (VHA) Hutchison Industry Total Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 5
  6. 6. So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Total mobile subscriber connections in Australia to reach 36.9 million in 2015 We forecast that the number of total Chart 5: Subscribers by operator (CY09 – CY15F) wireless subscriber connections in Australia will increase from 28.3 12,000 million in the end of 2010 to 36.8 million in the end of 2015. 10,000 Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Telstra will 8,000 subscribers (000s) have approximately 14.6 million mobile subscribers in 2015. 6,000 In our view, Telstra will continue to hold a dominant position in Australia with a 39.7% market share in 2015. 4,000 We forecast that SingTel Optus will 2,000 have 11.2 million wireless subscribers in 2015 (30.3% market share). 0 We expect that the number of CY09 CY10F CY11F CY12F CY13F CY14F CY15F subscriber connections at Vodafone Hutchison Australia will continue to increase and reach 9.4 million in 2015 Telstra SingTel Optus Vodafone Hutchison Australia (25.6% market share). Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 6
  7. 7. So what is IEMR’s Forecast? ARPU levels in Australia to remain stable WE EXPECT THE OPERATOR-WIDE Chart 6: Average Revenue per User (ARPU) AVERAGE ARPU LEVEL TO per month (CY09 – CY13F), AUD REMAIN AT APPROXIMATELY AUD 49 OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS 60 Our forecasting model does not predict a major change in the industry 50 average ARPU for the next two years. The industry average ARPU will be 40 ARPU (AUD) AUD 49 per month in 2013. We expect that VHA’s ARPU level 30 will continue to be higher than those of SingTel Optus and Telstra over the 20 next two years. 10 0 CY09 CY10F CY11F CY12F CY13F Telstra SingTel Optus Vodafone Hutchison Australia Average Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 7
  8. 8. So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Telstra to enjoy the highest profitability Telstra will be enjoying the highest Chart 7: EBITDA margins (CY09 – CY13F), % level of profitability in Australia’s wireless market during the forecast 50% period. Our model is predicting that Telstra’s 40% EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will be about 34% in 2013. 30% On the other hand, we forecast that SingTel Optus EBITDA margin will be 20% about 27% over the next two years. VHA’s EBITDA margin will remain lower than those of its competitors at 10% about 18% from 2012 to 2013. 0% CY09 CY10F CY11F CY12F CY13F Telstra SingTel Optus Vodafone Hutchison Australia Average Source: IEMR© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 8
  9. 9. IE Market Research What do we do? We Drive Enterprise Strategy in the telecoms domain by: Producing the BEST and most COMPREHENSIVE strategy coverage of the vendor and operator space in the world With over 800+ operators and 50+ vendors, we cover the strategies of more telecom operators, vendors, and markets than ALL of our competitors© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 9
  10. 10. About IEMR Blue Chip client base of over 100 customers across core telco value chain . . . Operators OEMs / ODMs Network Infrastructure Vendors© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 10
  11. 11. About IEMR And over 200 consulting and financial services institutions are IEMR customers© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 11
  12. 12. Thank you for reading our report. If you liked what you read, please letpeople know about this site by linking to us from your own website. Just copy the html code below and paste it either into a sidebar widget or a post on your own site. It would be much appreciated! Here is the code to copy/paste: <a href="https://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/3Q11-Australia- Mobile-Operator-Forecast-2011--2015-Australia-to-have-36-9-million-mobile- subscriber-connections-in-2015-with-Optus-taking-30-market-share-RID2701- 1.aspx">Australia Mobile Operator Forecast</a> © 2011 IE Market Research Corp. All rights reserved. 12
  13. 13. If you would like to purchase the full report together with the detailed Excel sheets and forecasts, please click here and sign up as a member client. You can also call us at +1 604 327 4367 or email us at info@iemarketresearch.com© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 13
  14. 14. IE Market Research Disclaimers and DisclosuresThe opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) and IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR) about the firm(s) and/or industry appearing inthis report. Any “forward looking statements” are the best estimates and opinions of the analyst(s) and IEMR based upon information that is publicly availableand that the analyst(s) and IEMR believes to be correct. There is no guarantee that forecasts appearing in this report will materialize.The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of IEMR, aportion of which are or have been generated by consulting and contract research activities undertaken by IEMR for firm(s) appearing in this report. Theanalyst(s) and/or IEMR does not own any shares of the firm(s) appearing in this report, does not make or offer for sale shares of the firm(s) appearing in thisreport, and does not have any investment banking business with firm(s) appearing in this report. IEMR may have been contracted by firm(s) appearing in thisreport to undertake competitive intelligence, business strategy, market research, branding research, and/or public opinion research activities. No part of thecompensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by theresponsible analyst(s) in this report.Forward Looking StatementsThis report contains forward looking statements. Forward looking statements regarding firm(s) inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actualresults to differ from such forward looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continuedacceptance of the firm(s)’ products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the firm(s)’ new products/services; competitive factors; newproducts/services introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; mergers and acquisitions; systematic risks and other risksdiscussed in the firm(s)’ periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the appropriate securitiesregulators. By making these forward looking statements, the analyst(s) and IEMR undertake no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changesafter the date of this report.WarrantiesThe information contained in this report has been compiled by IEMR from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied,is made by IEMR or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. IEMR does not make any warranties, expressed or implied, as to resultsto be obtained from using this information and makes no express or implied warranties or fitness for a particular use. Clients using this report assume fullresponsibility for whatever results they obtain from whatever use the information was put to. To the full extent permitted by law neither IEMR nor any otherperson accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein.© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 14
  15. 15. IE Market Research Disclaimers and DisclosuresDissemination of ResearchIEMR endeavours to make all reasonable efforts to provide research simultaneously to all eligible clients. However, IEMR’s premium clients may have access toIEMR research prior to research being disseminated more widely. IEMR’s research is posted to our proprietary website to ensure eligible clients receiveintelligence in a timely manner. Additional distribution may be done by IEMR’s sales personnel via email, fax or regular mail. Clients may also receive our researchvia third party vendors. Please contact our research department at 1-888-322-IEMR for more information regarding our research.Licensing AgreementAny survey data, forecasting data, and research reports and the information contained therein are the intellectual property of IEMR, and permission to use thesame is granted on a single-user or multi-user basis to all Clients. IE Market Research Corp. will not distribute in any way, shape, or form results of contractresearch that would, in any way, harm the competitive position of its Client.IE Market Research Corp. will be entitled to the copyright in all reports and other documents or electronic media produced by it in connection with workundertaken independently of any Client contract. In performing services, IE Market Research Corp. may use without limitation any of its property includinghardware, software, IE Market Research Corp.’s proprietary products and confidential information and trade secrets of IE Market Research Corp. Such propertywill remain the property of IE Market Research Corp. and the Client shall acquire no right or interest in it.IEMR’s licensing agreement is perhaps the most liberal in the industry. Two licensing options are available for our Clients:• Single-user License: Allows Clients to read, print, and distribute printed copies of IEMR survey data, forecasting data, and research reports (and all purchasedelements therein) within the Client’s organization, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. Clients are also allowed to use and manipulate this data for theirinternal corporate purposes, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. A Single-user License does not give the Client the right to electronically distribute IEMRsurvey data, forecasting data, and research reports to any other individual either within an organization or outside it.• Multi-user License: Allows Clients to read, print, and distribute printed and electronic copies of IEMR survey data, forecasting data, and research reports (and allpurchased elements therein) within the Client’s organization, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. Clients are also allowed to use and manipulate this datafor their internal corporate purposes, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. A Multi-user License does not give the Client the right to distribute IEMR surveydata, forecasting data, and research reports to other individuals outside the Client’s organization.CONSUMEREADY™ and EXPORTREADY™ are registered trademarks of IEMR. Reproduction of material contained herein, in whole or in part or use for anypublic purpose is only permitted with the prior approval of IEMR. Courtesy copies of reproduced material are appreciated. Electronic reuse of the data containedherein is strictly prohibited.© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved. 15

×