Country Risk Assessment Exercise The gas supply case of Bulgaria            Atanas Georgiev   Assistant Professor, Sofia U...
Contents1. Bulgaria’s geopolitical position in terms of natural gas2. National energy balances – import and consumption3. ...
Geopolitical Position•   Situated on the Balkan Peninsula, Bulgaria has a significant role in    transiting natural gas fr...
0.0%                               50.0%                                                100.0%                            ...
Gas suppliers (& intermediaries?)                               mcm             share (%)  Type of supplies      2010     ...
Shale gas update•   Chevron pays 30 mln EUR for first shale gas exploration concession•   According to estimates, shale ga...
Demand-side                       Gas consumers in Bulgaria (2010)      glass and               others                    ...
Some additional gas supply & demand figures• Total piped gas capacity in 2010: 76.7 mcm/day    – (or about 28 bcm p.a.) - ...
National gas transit and transmission infrastructure (Bulgartransgaz EAD)                        Romania  Serbia          ...
National gas distribution infrastructure
Scenarios for possible gas crises
Major bottlenecks & possible investments (1/3)• Production  – Local sources of conventional gas are not sufficient to cove...
Major bottlenecks & possible investments (2/3)• Transmission  – There are projects for constructing gas interconnectors wi...
Major bottlenecks & possible investments (3/3)• Distribution   – Currently about 80% of the municipalities in Bulgaria are...
Thank you for your kind attention!Atanas GeorgievAssistant Professor at the Faculty of Economicsand Business Administratio...
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The gas supply case of Bulgaria

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Situated on the Balkan Peninsula, Bulgaria has a significant role in transiting natural gas from the Middle East and Central Asia to Southern and Central Europe. Energy independence of Bulgaria in the period 2005-2008 is diminishing – from 54.0% to 51.8%.

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The gas supply case of Bulgaria

  1. 1. Country Risk Assessment Exercise The gas supply case of Bulgaria Atanas Georgiev Assistant Professor, Sofia University Executive Editor, Publics.bg
  2. 2. Contents1. Bulgaria’s geopolitical position in terms of natural gas2. National energy balances – import and consumption3. Current transit, transmission, storage, and distribution infrastructure4. Energy supply risks – risks and possible investments
  3. 3. Geopolitical Position• Situated on the Balkan Peninsula, Bulgaria has a significant role in transiting natural gas from the Middle East and Central Asia to Southern and Central Europe• More info: “Bulgaria – gas consumer or future gas hub” (http://www.europeanenergyreview.eu/site/pagina.php?id=1764)
  4. 4. 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% • • Austria 33.2% Belgium 24.8% Bulgaria 51.8% Cyprus 3.2%Czech Rep. 73.5% Denmark 139.9% Estonia 78.1% Finland 47.0% France 51.3% Germany 40.0% Greece 32.4% Hungary 39.7% Ireland 10.1% Italy 15.3% Latvia 39.9% Lithuania 42.0%Luxembourg 1.9% Malta 0.1%Netherlands 83.5% National Energy Balances Poland 72.9% Portugal 18.4% Romania 73.1% Slovakia 35.1% Slovenia 47.5% Spain 21.9% Sweden 67.0% Energy Independence in EU-27 and neighbors UK 80.0% (nuclear is about 22.2% of gross energy consumption) Albania 55.2% Belarus 14.3% BiH 72.5% EU members neighbors Natural gas - 12.4% of Bulgaria’s gross energy consumption Croatia 43.5% Energy independence of Bulgaria in the period 2005-2008 is diminishing – from 54.0% to 51.8%. (according to EUROSTAT, FYROM 55.3% Moldova 3.2% Russia 182.6% nuclear energy is considered local resource, even if fuel is imported Turkey 29.4% Ukraine 59.7%
  5. 5. Gas suppliers (& intermediaries?) mcm share (%) Type of supplies 2010 2009 2010 2009 1. Imported gas 2480 2475 97.87% 99.64% 1.1. Overgas Inc. AD 2069 2000 81.65% 80.52% 1.2. WIEE 360 429 14.21% 17.27% 1.3. DEPA (Greece) 0 3 0.00% 0.12% 1.4. Gazprom Export 51 43 2.01% 1.73% 2. Local sources 54 9 2.13% 0.36%
  6. 6. Shale gas update• Chevron pays 30 mln EUR for first shale gas exploration concession• According to estimates, shale gas reserves may total between 300 and 1000 bcm (enough for 100-300 years with current consumption)• About 1000 conventional wells have been drilled in Bulgaria until now, “fracking” on this scale will be used for the first time• Strong negative reaction from environmentalists and some political parties• More info: “Shale gas battle in Bulgaria – high stakes for Europe” (http://www.europeanenergyreview.eu/site/pagina.php?id=3178)
  7. 7. Demand-side Gas consumers in Bulgaria (2010) glass and others energy sector porcelain industry 11.80% (district heating) 5.80% 37.70% gas distribution companies 16.80% chemical industry 27.90%
  8. 8. Some additional gas supply & demand figures• Total piped gas capacity in 2010: 76.7 mcm/day – (or about 28 bcm p.a.) - this is the gas pipeline from Russia, which supplies gas both for Bulgaria and for transit to neighboring countries. The entry point is at Negru voda (RO-BG border)• Total gas production capacity in 2010: 0.15 mcm/day• Average gas demand in 2010: 7.29 mcm/day• Total storage deliverability in 2010: 5 mcm/day• Peak demand (1-in-20): 12.5 mcm/day – in the beginning of January 2009, just before the Ukraine-Russia supply crisis
  9. 9. National gas transit and transmission infrastructure (Bulgartransgaz EAD) Romania Serbia S TurkeyMacedonia Greece
  10. 10. National gas distribution infrastructure
  11. 11. Scenarios for possible gas crises
  12. 12. Major bottlenecks & possible investments (1/3)• Production – Local sources of conventional gas are not sufficient to cover more than 5-10% of national consumption. However, there are currently exploration works starting for shale gas• Storage – Bulgaria has only one gas storage facility at Chiren (North- East part of the country). Its capacity does not allow covering of peak daily consumption during winter days. A project for increasing the extraction capacities has been started. – A second gas storage facility will be built at the former gas field of Galata (operated until now by Melrose Resources). The two gas storage facilities should provide better security of supply in terms of storage.
  13. 13. Major bottlenecks & possible investments (2/3)• Transmission – There are projects for constructing gas interconnectors with neighboring countries - Greece, Turkey, Romania, and Serbia. Interconnectors with Greece and Turkey would allow alternative supplies of gas from the Middle East and Central Asia (e.g. Azerbaijan). Bi-directional connections with Romania and Serbia could provide supply security in cases when main supplies are interrupted. – Current connections to Greece, Turkey, and Macedonia are only for transit of Russian gas coming from Bulgaria. – The construction of Nabucco and South Stream pipelines would also improve security of supply in terms of transmission. The EU-supported project Nabucco would bring Caspian and Middle Eastern gas, while South Stream should give access to Russian gas via the Black Sea without third countries on the route.
  14. 14. Major bottlenecks & possible investments (3/3)• Distribution – Currently about 80% of the municipalities in Bulgaria are not connected to the transmission network. Investment in distribution networks started in the beginning of the 1990s and is still going at a slow pace.• End use – The most important step from the end users side is to guarantee a reserve fuel for energy consumption. Unfortunately, some of the gas appliances at end consumers’ sites are not able to use reserve fuels.
  15. 15. Thank you for your kind attention!Atanas GeorgievAssistant Professor at the Faculty of Economicsand Business Administration, Sofia UniversityExecutive Editor of publics.bgat Public Services OODemail: ageorgiev@publics.bgmobile: +359 888 466 450

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