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Oil Supply & Price Environment

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Kerry Perkinson presents to the executive committee of the Middle Tennessee Mayors Caucus on recent trends in oil supply and its price environment.

Kerry Perkinson presents to the executive committee of the Middle Tennessee Mayors Caucus on recent trends in oil supply and its price environment.

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  • 1. Kerry PerkinsonV.P., Tennessee Bank & TrustTransit Alliance ‐ Board Member 
  • 2. David J. OReilly Chairman & CEO Chevron Corporation Vice Chairman – National Petroleum Council “One thing is clear:  the era of easy oil is over” “It took us 125 years to use the first trillion   barrels of oil…..well use the next trillion in 30.” “We can wait until a crisis forces us to do   something. Or we can commit to working   together”http://newsgroups.derkeiler.com/Archive/Alt/alt.gathering.rainbow/2005‐08/msg00301.html
  • 3. ‐ Dr. James Schlesinger U.S. Secretary of Energy (1977‐79) U.S. Secretary of Defense  Director of Central Intelligence  Chairman U.S. Atomic Energy Commission  November 1, 2010,  ASPO‐USA Oil Conference, Washington, DC   “ …given projected world  , running from 4% to 6%, and the projected increase in demand during the next quarter century,    we shall require the new capacity equivalents of five Saudi Arabias.”
  • 4. Field Decline Curves – U.S. Gulf of Mexico 
  • 5. ‐ Colin Campbell
  • 6. “ It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil.   Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive. ”  — Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, October 2008“ All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found.  Now comes the harder work……….finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and areas. ”  — William J. Cummings, Exxon‐Mobil company spokesman, December 2005
  • 7. Spindletop Discovery  – – BP Macondo OIL  RESERVOIRTotalDepth to Sea Floor OIL  RESERVOIR Sea Floor to Oil Reservoir
  • 8. U.S. MILITARY JOINT FORCES COMMAND 2010 JOE Report  Joint Operating Environment February 18, 2010“The discovery rate of new petroleum & gas fields over the past two decades provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields.” 
  • 9. “….a SUSPICIOUS JUMP in reserves reported by 6 OPEC nations adding  300 BILLION BARRELS OF OIL to their tallies of reserves  following NO MAJOR DISCOVERIES  Taken from: “The End Of Cheap Oil”,  Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrare
  • 10. “….a SUSPICIOUS JUMP in reserves reported by 6 OPEC nations adding 300 BILLION BARRELS OF OIL to their tallies of reserves  following NO MAJOR DISCOVERIES  Additions – Greater  than all U.S. Oil Reserves  +  40%
  • 11. ….“BACKDATING the field REVISIONS to the year in which the fields were discovered REVEALS THAT RESERVES HAVE BEEN FAILING BECAUSE  OF A STEADY DECLINE IN NEWFOUND OIL (blue bars)” Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrare
  • 12. In 2004, there were  producing  per day.1. Ghawar (Saudi Arabia) – 4.5 Million BOPD2. Cantarell (Mexico) – 2.0 Million BOPD3. Burgan (Kuwait) – 1.7 Million BOPD  4. Da Qing (China) – 1.0 Million BOPD
  • 13. TODAY1. Ghawar (Saudi) – 5+ Million BOPD  (+0.5)2. Cantarell (Mexico) – 464,000 BOPD  (‐1.5)3. Burgan (Kuwait) – 1.5 Million BOPD  (‐0.2)4. Da Qing (China) – 1.0 Million BOPD  (Unchg)
  • 14. MARKETS:   Ernst & Young warns new oil price shock could  threaten economic growth.  Tuesday,  May 24, 2011   Supply CrunchRecovery Price Spike Recession
  • 15. ‐ Oil Supply peaked in 2005‐ World is declining at +5% per year‐ 2 of the 3 largest fields in world, Burgan & Cantarell,  are in decline, and Ghawar is showing its age‐ Easy (cheap) oil is gone, expensive oil is coming!‐ Gas & diesel account for 80% of all U.S. Transportation  (people & products)‐ Price of gasoline must rise as we take more risks, and  drill deeper and deeper‐ Expect $5.00 to $6.00/gallon gasoline within 36 months
  • 16. Who do we  for  high gas prices? Congress and/or the President for not keeping prices in check. Saudi Arabia and OPEC members for not producing enough oil. Oil companies for making record profits. Wall Street Speculators who bet on higher oil prices. Some small groups blame the American driver’s thirst for gasoline.
  • 17. Regarding Energy and the Environment…  Do I Get  a Vote? Which is more importantmaintaining our imperial lifestyles, or securing the quality of life for our children and grand children?
  • 18. Kerry Perkinson

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