Adaptive Change Cycle	

Why Nothing Lasts Forever!

Naresh Jain

naresh@agilefaqs.com
twitter: @nashjain
http://nareshjain...
Which	
  Orange	
  Circle	
  is	
  bigger?

Ebbinghaus optical illusion
Count the number of
times the team in white
t-shirt pass the ball
Video on Selective Attention 	

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJG698U2Mvo
Selec4ve	
  A7en4on
The	
  process	
  by	
  which	
  a	
  person	
  can	
  selec4vely	
  pick	
  
out	
  one	
  s4mulus	
 ...
Commercial Break!
Copyright © 2013, AgileFAQs. All Rights Reserved.
Mumbai
Tech Talks!
Pet	
  Plant	
  Research	
  @	
  an	
  elderly	
  Nursing	
  Home
Student	
  Volunteers	
  @	
  Nursing	
  Home
Why?
What	
  would	
  you	
  prefer?
A	
  lo7ery	
  4cket	
  with	
  a	
  random	
  number	
  	
  
or	
  a	
  number	
  you’ve	...
What	
  would	
  you	
  prefer?
In	
  the	
  Casino,	
  if	
  you	
  toss	
  the	
  dice	
  	
  
or	
  someone	
  else	
  ...
Illusion	
  of	
  Control
Our	
  desire	
  to	
  control	
  is	
  so	
  powerful	
  that	
  the	
  feeling	
  
of	
  being...
Electrical	
  Shock	
  Research
High	
  Volts	
  Shock	
  Group	
  vs.	
  Low	
  Volts	
  Shock	
  Group	
  
	
  5	
  shoc...
Uncertainty

Why?	

Our desire to Control
How	
  do	
  we	
  deal	
  with	
  Uncertainty?
Predictability	
  Paradox
How to Organize a
Children's Party?
A video by Dave Snowden
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Miwb92eZaJg
Summary	
  -­‐	
  Cynefin	
  Model
Why is there only ONE
Toyota or Apple today?
Products & Processes are like haircuts	

Copying someone else’s rarely works
Retrospec4ve	
  Coherence

Hindsight does not lead to foresight!
Will Apple or Toyota’s
success last for ever?
Why not?
Adaptive Change Cycle
Adaptive Change Cycle in the Automobile Industry
Every 10 Years Process Go Thru
The Adaptive Change Cycle
Adaptive Change Cycle
References

http://www.resalliance.org/	

Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems	

Noah Rafo...
Being ‘agile’
OVER
Following ‘Agile’
5	
  Key	
  take-­‐aways	
  from	
  this	
  Session
Beware	
  of	
  Illusion	
  of	
  Control	
  and	
  Predictability	
  ...
Be	
  careful	
  not	
  to…

Ques4ons?

Naresh Jain

naresh@agilefaqs.com
twitter: @nashjain
http://nareshjain.com
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods
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Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods

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Why do we see new process/methodology/movement every 10 years or so? Here I explain the rationale behind this behavior using the concept of Adaptive Change Cycle.

Published in: Technology, Business

Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods

  1. 1. Adaptive Change Cycle Why Nothing Lasts Forever! Naresh Jain naresh@agilefaqs.com twitter: @nashjain http://nareshjain.com
  2. 2. Which  line  is  the  longest? 1 2 3 Müller-Lyer optical illusion
  3. 3. Which  Orange  Circle  is  bigger? Ebbinghaus optical illusion
  4. 4. Count the number of times the team in white t-shirt pass the ball
  5. 5. Video on Selective Attention http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJG698U2Mvo
  6. 6. Selec4ve  A7en4on The  process  by  which  a  person  can  selec4vely  pick   out  one  s4mulus  from  a  mixture  of  s4muli  occurring   simultaneously.
  7. 7. Commercial Break!
  8. 8. Copyright © 2013, AgileFAQs. All Rights Reserved.
  9. 9. Mumbai
  10. 10. Tech Talks!
  11. 11. Pet  Plant  Research  @  an  elderly  Nursing  Home
  12. 12. Student  Volunteers  @  Nursing  Home
  13. 13. Why?
  14. 14. What  would  you  prefer? A  lo7ery  4cket  with  a  random  number     or  a  number  you’ve  picked?
  15. 15. What  would  you  prefer? In  the  Casino,  if  you  toss  the  dice     or  someone  else  tosses  the  dice? Do you think it will make any difference?
  16. 16. Illusion  of  Control Our  desire  to  control  is  so  powerful  that  the  feeling   of  being  in  control  is  so  rewarding  that  people  oLen   act  as  though  they  can  control  the  uncontrollable.
  17. 17. Electrical  Shock  Research High  Volts  Shock  Group  vs.  Low  Volts  Shock  Group    5  shocks  of  5  volts  each  vs.  3  shocks  of  2-­‐4  volts  each   Which Group would have sweated more, whose heart beats would be faster and who claimed to be more afraid? Every  10  seconds  vs.  Random  4me  interval
  18. 18. Uncertainty Why? Our desire to Control
  19. 19. How  do  we  deal  with  Uncertainty?
  20. 20. Predictability  Paradox
  21. 21. How to Organize a Children's Party? A video by Dave Snowden http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Miwb92eZaJg
  22. 22. Summary  -­‐  Cynefin  Model
  23. 23. Why is there only ONE Toyota or Apple today?
  24. 24. Products & Processes are like haircuts Copying someone else’s rarely works
  25. 25. Retrospec4ve  Coherence Hindsight does not lead to foresight!
  26. 26. Will Apple or Toyota’s success last for ever? Why not?
  27. 27. Adaptive Change Cycle
  28. 28. Adaptive Change Cycle in the Automobile Industry
  29. 29. Every 10 Years Process Go Thru The Adaptive Change Cycle
  30. 30. Adaptive Change Cycle
  31. 31. References http://www.resalliance.org/ Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems Noah Raford - Explaining the Cycle of Adaptive Change Copyright © 2013, AgileFAQs. All Rights Reserved.
  32. 32. Being ‘agile’ OVER Following ‘Agile’
  33. 33. 5  Key  take-­‐aways  from  this  Session Beware  of  Illusion  of  Control  and  Predictability  Paradox   Ac4on  Precedes  Clarity   Retrospec4ve  Coherence  -­‐  Copying  rarely  helps   Perfec4on  in  very  first  a7empt  is  impossible,  iterate  via   safe-­‐fail  experimenta4on  to  eventually  a7ain  perfec4on     Nothing  lasts  for  ever,  go  through  the  adap4ve  change   cycle  as  rapidly  as  possible  (reorganisa4on,  exploita4on,   conserva4on  &  release) ©  AgileFAQs  -­‐  All  Rights  Reserved
  34. 34. Be  careful  not  to… Ques4ons? Naresh Jain naresh@agilefaqs.com twitter: @nashjain http://nareshjain.com

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