IEA-Equity
Strategy

India Equity Analytics

6th March, 2014

Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities

Hindustan Zinc ...
Hindustan Zinc LTD.

"BUY"
6th March' 14

Good gains ahead
Result Update

BUY

CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upsi...
Hindustan Zinc LTD.
Silver(rs/ounce)

Nov-13

Dec-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-...
Hindustan Zinc LTD.
P/L PERFORMANCE
Net Revenue from Operation
Other Income
Total Income
Power, fuel & water
Repairs
Expen...
Voltas Ltd.

"Neutral"
6th Mar' 14

Downgrade to "Neutral"…….
Company update

Neutral

CMP
Target Price
Previous
Target Pr...
Voltas Ltd.
Key financials :
PARTICULAR

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014E

2015E

Performance
Revenue

4326

4757
...
SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.

V-

"Book Profit"
6th Mar' 14

" Book Profits While The Going Is Good…. "
Company update

Book Profit...
9

SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.
Key financials :
PARTICULAR

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014E

2015E

208
5
213
32
27
5
0
3...
EROSMEDIA

"BUY"
5th March' 14

"Moving to Blockbuster"
Initiating Report

Buy

CMP

160

Target Price
Previous Target Pri...
EROSMEDIA
Sales and Sales growth(%)(yoy)
Key Concerns:
1. Piracy is the key concern for the

company. Indian film industry...
EROSMEDIA
Management Guidance:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6

Catalogue monetization will continue to grow strong in the upcoming quart...
Escorts Ltd.

V-

"Buy"
5th Mar' 14

"Volume Growth Remains The Key; Retain Buy……."
Company update

Buy

CMP
Target Price
...
Escorts Ltd.
Key financials :
PARTICULAR

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

2014E 18
Months

2015E

2016E

2600
53
2653
160
100
...
Infosys

"BUY"
4th March' 14

"Meritocracy to growth"
Company update

BUY

Focus on meritocracy for client satisfaction as...
Infosys.
Employee cost on sales-%

Employee cost on sales at all time high

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Total Employee and...
Infosys.
Key facts from Management Interview;
■ Management upgraded its earning guidance for FY14E from 9-10% to 11.5-12%....
Powergrid..
Update

BUY

CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous

95
118
NA
25%
NA

Market Data...
N arnolia Securities Ltd
402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lord s Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph
033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

119

Published on

Narnolia Securities Limited initiated Swaraj Engines Ltd stock CMP of INR 61, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of Rs. 61.7 We advice to book profit on the stock and BUY rating to the stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD with a target price of Rs. 148

Published in: Economy & Finance
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
119
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

  1. 1. IEA-Equity Strategy India Equity Analytics 6th March, 2014 Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities Hindustan Zinc LTD : Good gains ahead "BUY" Edition : 219 6th Mar 2014 Zinc fundamentals are becoming attractive with suppotive lead prices brings a positive outlook for Hindustan Zinc.With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Being an integrated & dominant player in the domestic industry with low cost of production, the company is poised to benefit in the long run. Now the stock is trading at 1.6x in one year forward P/B we estimated it at 1.8x for 2015.At current level we see a significant growth in the stock. We valued & reaffirm our positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148/-. ....................................................... ( Page : 2-4) Voltas Ltd : Downgrade to "Neutral"……. "NEUTRAL" 6th Mar 2014 The company has been evaluating strategic alternatives since 2012, we believe the company is not inclined to sell at valuations multiple of 2 times of its FY15E book value. However, If the company if things will going positively we could rationalize valuations near Rs. 145 per share, but we don't believe buyers would be willing to pay a premium to BVPS more than 2 times at this time. We are downgrading Voltas to Neutral given the recent rise in its share price following 3QFY14 earnings and revised our price target to Rs. 120. ................................................................ ( Page : 5-6) SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd : "BOOK PROFIT" 6th Mar 2014 In our earlier report dated 25-04-13, we had recommended readers to buy the scrip with a view to earn healthy gains. As expected, the counter have given a premium of 40 per cent over its recommended price. We expect the current price growth rally factored all the fundamental changes, and we advise our readers to book profits at the current levels. Our bearish attitude on the counter stems from its valuations. At a P/BV of 2.8x of its annualised FY14E RoE of Rs 28.7%, we believe that the counter is very expensive in comparison of its own past historical data . ...................................................................... ( Page : 7-8) EROSMEDIA :"Moving to Blockbuster" "BUY" 5th Mar 2014 Healthy movies pipeline for FY15E; Company is expecting to release more than 8 big budget movies across Hindi and regional languages. Likewise, company is going to release much awaited Rajnikanth’s movie Kochadaiiyaan on 11 April, 2014. Its well positioned to monetize rich content of library ensures annuity and regular set of revenue. .......................................... ( Page :9-11) Escorts Ltd: "Volume Growth Remains The Key;Retain Buy" "BUY" 5th Mar 2014 Going forward, we remain positive on the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. We expect demand to improve further in FY2014E with the economic recovery. However, we remain cautious with regards to growth in Construction Equipment segment in near-tomedium. Thus, We revise our estimates upwards to factor in the strong CY13 tractor volume performance. We therefore revised our rating on the stock from "Reduce" to "Buy" and advised to our investors to enter at current level with Revised price target of Rs. 175 ........................................................................ ( Page : 12-13) Infosys : "Meritocracy to growth" "BUY" 4th Mar 2014 In the recent webcast, Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in Infosys could be asked to leave or may hand over layoff notices. Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion, also operating metrics will turn into greenery from hay. At a CMP of Rs 3793, it trades at 17.4x FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a target price of target price of Rs 3910 . ............................................................... ( Page : 14-16) Powergrid : "BUY" 3th Mar 2014 The stock is trading at 1.7x FY15E BVPS. We estimate to Power grid stock to trade at 1.8x BVPS. Valuation is very reasonable for a business model with RoE (16%), strong growth visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target price of Rs.118.With equity dilution overhang on the stock is removed, so we expect the stock price will drive by purely on its fundamentals, on our estimates we maintain a positive fundamental outlook for Power grid. Also, govt. stake coming down to 58% is a positive, as risk of further equity dilution is reduced . ............................................................ (Page : 17) Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  2. 2. Hindustan Zinc LTD. "BUY" 6th March' 14 Good gains ahead Result Update BUY CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 123 148 148 20% 0% Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Average Daily Volume (Nos.) Nifty 500188 HINDZINC 142/94 51929 5192 6329 Stock Performance-% 1M 4.3 0.0 Absolute Rel. to Nifty 1yr -1.7 9.2 YTD -3.4 11.3 Share Holding Pattern-% 3QFY14 64.9 1.8 31.4 1.8 Promoters FII DII Others 2QFY14 1QFY14 64.9 64.9 1.8 1.5 31.4 31.5 1.8 2.1 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-07 0 Jan-08 We believe Zinc price will be the core fundamental behind the Hindustan zinc’s bull story in the coming years. We see a improving volume of production through FY15.More So Govt. The attorney-general’s clearance for the Centre’s proposal to divest its residual stake in Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) lifted the Street’s mood. Again the board delayed this process and guided investors that disinvestment of government's remaining stake in Hindustan Zinc will happen next fiscal year. Stake sale in HZL again seems to be back burner now. We also see gradual and sustainable recovery in global macro Scenario which supports a positive cycle in industrial metals. So, we believe there exists a strong case for significant earnings estimate for Hind Zinc in coming months. Robust Q3FY14 Performance : Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) Q3FY14 performance was inline to our estimates on the back of healthy zinc sales volumes and higher metal premiums. Total operating income for Q3FY14 stood at Rs. 3450.1 crore higher by 8.6% YoY but lower by 3.1% QoQ. Total zinc sales in Q3FY14 came in at 196,000 tonne, up 17% YoY and 2% QoQ . The company realised premium on metal sales amounting to $241/tonne for zinc (Zn) & $305/tonne for lead (Pb) . Lead sales volume for the quarter stood at 23500 tonnes (lower by 24% QoQ and 22% YoY), while silver sales volumes stood at 78500 kg (lower by 31% YoY and 14% QoQ) . EBITDA came in at Rs.1823.8 crore and inline to our estimate of Rs. 1829.6 crore. Subsequently, net profit stood at Rs. 1722.7 crore . Valuation & Recommendation Zinc fundamentals are becoming attractive with suppotive lead prices brings a positive outlook for Hindustan Zinc.With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Being an integrated & dominant player in the domestic industry with low cost of production, the company is poised to benefit in the long run. Now the stock is trading at 1.6x in one year forward P/B we estimated it at 1.8x for 2015.At current level we see a significant growth in the stock. We valued & reaffirm our positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148/-. 1 yr Forward P/B Jan-07 Zinc market was bearish during last consecutive years having surplus in inventory, but now sentiment is slowly turning positive showing some uptrends in Zinc LME prices. Visible inventories on the London Metals Exchange, as well as on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, are down about 30% over the last year. And zinc demand is increasing steadily. Source - Comapany/EastWind Research Financials : Net Revenue EBITDA Depriciation Tax PAT Q3FY14 3450 1824 210 305 1723 Y-o-Y % 8.6 22.1 18.6 50.2 6.8 Q-o-Q % -9.8 -3.1 12.9 20.1 5.1 Q3FY13 3178 1494 177 203 1613 Q2FY14 3826 1883 186 254 1640 (In Crs) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 2
  3. 3. Hindustan Zinc LTD. Silver(rs/ounce) Nov-13 Dec-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 Apr-13 May-13 B. A reason to wait and watch , is since the government is looking at auction, how much will Vedanta be able to garner and what price it is willing to pay is not known. Feb-13 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Mar-13 Key Concerns A. Volatile Desel Price and high Sulphuric acid price affecting the company,s PAT adversly. LME Price/Ton Jan-13 Lower Production Guideline HZL has marginally downward revised its mined metal production guidance for FY14 from 950,000 tonnes earlier to 900,000 tonnes. This reflects slower-than-expected ramp up of underground mining projects and some changes in mining sequence wherein preference has been given to primary mine development during this period. Source - Comapany/EastWind Research H. Zinc premium reaches six year high as inventories shrink I. Fees that zinc smelter charge to refine the metat that probably to increase 5%. Narnolia Securities Ltd, LME Price/Ton Lead Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Source - Comapany/EastWind Research LME Price/Ton Zinc Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 125000 120000 115000 110000 105000 100000 95000 90000 Jan-13 C. HZL’s revenues are directly linked with the global market for products essentially, Zinc and Lead which are priced with reference to LME prices and Silver to LBMA (London Bullion Metal Association) prices. D. Lower than expected demand by galvanizing industries for zinc and industrial batteries, car batteries industries for lead would affect the company estimates. E. Disruptions in mining due to equipment failures, unexpected maintenance problems , non-availability of raw materials of appropriate price, quantity and quality for energy requirements, disruptions to or increased cost of transport services or strikes and industrial actions or disputes. Key Triggers for Growth A. Company is tracking on 95% capacity utilization. B. Captive plants enjoy the lower Tax rate and company enjoys zero tax from tax free geographycal areas. C. Smelting Plants are improvised and management is confident that the smelting plants will maintain their stance for the coming quarters also. D. The Rampura Agucha underground mine project is operational via ramps (tunnel driven downward from the surface) and commercial production already ramp up in Q3 and will in Q4 of FY14 . The Kayad mine project will also commence commercial production in the current fiscal year. E. A cash-rich balance sheet, low cost of production and inexpensive valuations make HZL an attractive bet at the current price levels. F. Disinvestment of government's remaining stake in Hindustan Zinc and Bharat Aluminium (Balco) will happen next fiscal year . G. In the past Vedanta Group has said it wanted majority control when Vedanta had earlier offered Rs 149 a share . If this is any benchmark,then investors will stand to gain. Source - Comapany/EastWind Research 3
  4. 4. Hindustan Zinc LTD. P/L PERFORMANCE Net Revenue from Operation Other Income Total Income Power, fuel & water Repairs Expenditure EBITDA Depriciation Interest Cost Net tax expense / (benefit) PAT ROE% B/S PERFORMANCE Share capital Reserve & Surplus Total equity Trade payables Short-term provisions Total liabilities Intangibles Tangible assets Capital work-in-progress Long-term loans and advances Inventories Trade receivables Cash and bank balances Short-term loans and advances Total Assets FY11 9912 979 10891 1023 492 4417 5496 475 19 1059 4900 22.0 FY10 423 17701 18124 478 340 20238 109 6071 1113 361 452 152 928 96 20238 FY12 11405 1543 12948 1228 568 5336 6069 611 14 1419 5526 21.0 FY11 845 21688 22533 475 567 25053 109 7145 875 594 762 209 5633 158 25053 FY13 12700 2032 14732 1070 696 6218 6482 647 29 921 6899 21.0 FY12 845 26036 26881 410 504 29485 47 8466 445 876 798 332 5255 233 29485 FY14E 13577 1787 15364 1291 707 6484 7093 718 37 1097 6967 19.0 FY13 845 31431 32276 484 825 35465 10 8474 1082 1898 1111 403 6942 373 35465 RATIOS P/B EPS Debtor to Turnover% Creditors to Turnover% Inventories to Turnover% CASH FLOWS Cash from Operation Changes In Working Capital Net Cash From Operation Cash From Investment Cash from Finance Net Cash Flow during year FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 3.2 95.6 1.9 6.0 0.6 FY10 4001 77 4077 -3881 -187 8 2.2 11.6 2.1 4.8 0.8 FY11 4483 -212 4272 -3658 -363 250 2.1 13.1 2.9 3.6 0.7 FY12 4553 -61 4492 -3499 -1242 -248 1.7 16.3 3.2 3.8 0.9 FY13 4935 -183 4752 -3234 -1257 262 Narnolia Securities Ltd, Net Revenue from Operatio n 4000 3500 3000 2500 30.0 Revenue Growth 4500 15.0 25.0 20.0 2000 10.0 1500 5.0 1000 0.0 500 0 -5.0 Source - Comapany/EastWind Research ZinC Productions: 250000 Zinc Production (tons) 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Source - Comapany/EastWind Research EBIDTA & Margin : 2500 EBIDTA % 2000 49 49 50 47 43 1500 60 EBIDTA 43 41 40 42 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 Source - Comapany/EastWind Research 4
  5. 5. Voltas Ltd. "Neutral" 6th Mar' 14 Downgrade to "Neutral"……. Company update Neutral CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 139 125 95 -10% 32% Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Capital Mkt (Rs Crores) Vol. (Nos.) Average Daily Nifty 500575 VOLTAS 65/143 4,609 624,126 6,329 Stock Performance-% 1M 28.5 23.1 Absolute Rel. to Nifty 1yr 75.2 64.0 Promoters FII DII Others 1 yr Forward P/B Management comment on above JV : Water has been identified as a key focus area for the Tata group. With its unrivalled know-how and technological leadership in the water treatment space, the partnership, will help Voltas Water Solutions cater to the growing water treatment requirements of the Indian subcontinent. They further believe that partnership will simultaneously leverage the brand and distribution strength of Voltas, along with the technology prowess of the water and process solutions division of the Dow Group. YTD 84.2 72.9 Our View on said JV : In today scenario major Water and Waste Water Treatment market is mostly and largely catered by unorganized players. And the market which is targeted by this new joint venture will provide a branded and differentiated product line in the sector, with a focus on quality and service delivery. 2QFY13 1QFY14 30.2 30.2 14.5 18.1 29.8 25.6 25.6 26.1 About Dow Group : Dow Chemical Pacific (Singapore) Pte Ltd was established in 1992. Catering to customers in Asia Pacific, particularly South East Asia, Dow Group combines the power of science and technology to passionately innovate what is essential to human progress. The company is driving innovations that extract value from the Intersection of chemical, physical and biological sciences to help address many of the world's most challenging problems such as the need for clean water, clean energy generation and conservation, and increasing agricultural productivity. The company's integrated, market-driven, industry-leading portfolio of specialty chemical, advanced materials, agrosciences and plastics businesses delivers a broad range of technology-based products and solutions to customers in high growth sectors such as packaging, electronics, water, coatings and agriculture. Valuation : The company has been evaluating strategic alternatives since 2012, we believe the company is not inclined to sell at valuations multiple of 2 times of its FY15E book value. We estimate that at the lower end of management's guidance this translates into a 12.1%/12.7% RoE forFY14/15E. We believe management is attempting to be conservative regarding the guidance for FY14 & FY15, but even with a 60/90 bps improvement in the operating margin the RoE would be approximately 12.1%/12.7% for FY14/15E , which we believes would translate into a P/B multiple of approximately 2.0x – to 2.2x. This translates to a 12 month price target of approximately Rs. 120 based on our FY14E BVPS of Rs. 59. However, If the company if things will going positively we could rationalize valuations near Rs. 145 per share, but we don't believe buyers would be willing to pay a premium to BVPS more than 2 times at this time. We are downgrading Voltas to Neutral given the recent rise in its share price following 3QFY14 earnings and revised our price target to Rs. 120.” Share Holding Pattern-% 3QFY14 30.3 15.2 29.8 24.8 What New...??? Voltas Ltd has proposed to form a new joint venture (JV) company named –“ Voltas Water Solutions” which will have equal capital contribution from “Voltas” and “Dow Chemical Pacific” (Singapore) Pte (Dow). This JV company will market and distribute standard packaged Water Treatment Systems and Waste Water Treatment Systems of capacity up to 20 m 3/hour, to residential and commercial complexes and light industrial markets in the Indian subcontinent. The entity's operations would include designing, procuring, testing, marketing, selling and servicing of such standard water treatment systems and waste water treatment systems. Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 5
  6. 6. Voltas Ltd. Key financials : PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E Performance Revenue 4326 4757 5191 5186 5531 5320 5852 Other Income 94 78 58 98 90 84 100 Total Income 4420 4836 5250 5284 5621 5404 5952 EBITDA 283 460 463 336 245 261 296 EBIT 262 438 442 303 217 237 268 DEPRICIATION 21 21 21 34 28 24 28 INTREST COST 11 10 17 31 40 35 42 PBT 372 532 524 219 280 286 326 TAX Extra Oridiniary Items Reported PAT Dividend (INR) DPS EPS 117 26 255 73 2.2 7.7 147 25 385 73 2.2 11.6 172 40 352 73 2.2 10.6 57 -150 162 73 2.2 4.9 73 12 207 73 2.2 6.3 74 0 211 54 61.5 6.4 85 0 241 54 61.5 7.3 6.5% 5.8% 16.2% 4.7% 32.2% 27.3% 9.7% 8.0% 6.5% 1.2% 35.4% 35.2% 8.9% 6.7% 6.2% 1.3% 25.8% 24.6% 6.5% 3.1% 4.4% 2.0% 11.0% 11.4% 4.4% 3.7% 8.3% 2.9% 12.7% 13.1% 4.9% 3.9% 4.4% 42.4% 11.9% 12.3% 5.1% 4.0% 5.0% 42.4% 12.3% 13.0% 790 181 971 33 48 1085 35 1120 33 178 1362 137 1498 33 172 1478 223 1701 33 112 Yeild % EBITDA % NPM % Earning Yeild % Dividend Yeild % ROE % ROCE% Position Net Worth Total Debt Ammount in crores Capital Employed No of Share (Adj) INR in crores CMP 1626 1775 1955 261 225 225 (Source: Company/Eastwind) 1887 2000 2180 33 33 33 (Source: Company/Eastwind) 75 145 145 Ammount in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind) Valuation Book Value P/B Int/Coverage P/E Ammount in crore 23.9 2.0 23.8 6.2 32.8 5.4 44.5 15.3 41.2 4.2 26.7 16.1 44.7 2.5 9.6 22.9 49.1 1.5 5.5 12.1 53.7 2.7 6.8 22.7 59.1 2.5 6.4 19.9 (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 6
  7. 7. SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd. V- "Book Profit" 6th Mar' 14 " Book Profits While The Going Is Good…. " Company update Book Profit CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 648 648 600 0% 7% Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Average Daily Volume Nifty 500407 SWARAJENG 382/672 801 1,015 6,329 Stock Performance-% Absolute Rel. to Nifty 1M 5.3 (0.2) 1yr 47.8 36.6 YTD 63.4 52.0 In our earlier report dated 25-04-13, we had recommended readers to buy the scrip with a view to earn healthy gains. As expected, the counter have given a premium of 40 per cent over its recommended price. We expect the current price growth rally factored all the fundamental changes, and we advise our readers to book profits at the current levels. We are quite positive on the Swaraj Engines, owing to its strong tractor volume growth, capacity expansion to 1,05,000 engines pa from 75,000 of current level, softening of commodity prices and company presence in all HP segments. We are upbeat on the stock on the account of core business momentum remains robust with healthy EPS growth, cash flow generation and high RoE. Moreover, we feel that caution is necessary over the recent robust financial as well as operational performance that the company has delivered over the past year. With 90 per cent of its turnover generated through parent company, the revenue stream also seems concentrated. In conclusion, looking at the above mentioned woes, we advise readers to book profits in the counter at its current levels and fresh buying may be considered at cheaper levels of around Rs. 500-550 a share. Our bearish attitude on the counter stems from its valuations. At a P/BV of 2.8x of its annualised FY14E RoE of Rs 28.7%, we believe that the counter is very expensive in comparison of its own past historical data Recommendation History Share Holding Pattern-% Promoters FII DII Others 3QFY14 50.6 1.9 10.6 36.9 1 yr Forward P/B 2QFY14 50.6 1.9 10.4 37.1 1QFY14 50.6 1.5 10.6 37.3 Date 25th April' 13 17th June' 13 10th July' 13 1st Aug' 13 26th Nov' 13 3rd Feb' 14 Report Type CMP Target Price Change From Previous in % Company Update Company Update Company Update Result Update Result Update Result Update 460 511 533 484 610 602 515 535 535 535 600 648 NA 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 8.0% Valuation At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of Rs. 61.7 by 10.5x. Given the strong revenue growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of 26% post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and capable of ustaining its healthy earnings. Furthermore, despite the capex of Rs. 38 crore, the company has strong cash flows and the company is debt free. Also, Company assurance of 3060% dividend payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%. Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 7
  8. 8. 9 SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd. Key financials : PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 208 5 213 32 27 5 0 32 11 21 7 17.2 5.9 282 10 292 50 45 5 0 55 17 37 12 30.1 9.3 361 8 369 61 56 4 0 64 20 44 14 35.4 11.6 449 12 461 69 65 4 0 77 24 53 19 42.5 15.1 479 15 494 71 64 7 0 79 24 55 48 44.6 38.4 600 18 618 89 80 9 0 98 30 67 24 54.2 19.3 680 20 700 102 91 11 0 111 34 77 30 61.7 24.2 15.3% 15.5% 10.2% 8.0% 2.7% 21.9% 21.9% 17.6% 19.4% 13.2% 31.6% 9.8% 30.4% 30.4% 16.8% 17.8% 12.2% 12.2% 4.0% 28.8% 28.8% 15.5% 17.2% 11.8% 9.9% 3.5% 28.4% 28.4% 14.9% 16.6% 11.6% 11.3% 9.7% 28.6% 28.6% 14.8% 16.3% 11.2% 8.4% 3.0% 28.5% 28.5% 15.0% 16.3% 11.3% 9.5% 3.7% 26.6% 26.6% 97 1 214 123 1 95 152 1 290 186 1 429 194 1 395 236 1 648 287 1 648 Performance Revenue Other Income Total Income EBITDA EBIT DEPRICIATION INTREST COST PBT TAX Reported PAT Dividend EPS DPS Yeild % EBITDA % PBT % NPM % Earning Yeild % Dividend Yeild % ROE % ROCE% Position Net Worth No of Share CMP (Ammount in crore) Valuation Book Value P/B P/E Net Sales/Equity (Source: Company/Eastwind) 78.3 2.7 3.5 2.1 (Source: Company/Eastwind Research) 98.8 1.0 5.3 2.3 122.6 2.4 5.6 2.4 150.0 2.9 5.1 2.4 156.0 2.5 6.8 2.5 190.2 3.4 12.0 2.5 231.5 2.8 10.5 2.4 (Figures In crore) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 8
  9. 9. EROSMEDIA "BUY" 5th March' 14 "Moving to Blockbuster" Initiating Report Buy CMP 160 Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 200 25% Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 533261 EROSMEDIA 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Average Daily Volume Nifty 195/107 1467 26241 6298 Stock Performance 1M Absolute Rel. to Nifty 1yr YTD 13.1 8.2 -7.3 -17.4 - Share Holding Pattern-% Promoters FII DII Others Current 74.88 2QFY14 74.88 12.45 1.56 11.11 12.16 1.87 11.09 P/BV-1 year forward 1QFY14 74.88 11.35 2.95 10.82 Healthy movies pipeline for FY15E; Company is expecting to release more than 8 big budget movies across Hindi and regional languages. Likewise, company is going to release much awaited Rajnikanth’s movie Kochadaiiyaan on 11 April, 2014. Apart from this, company is expected to release Dishkiyaaoon, Shadi Ke Side Effect, Action Jackson, Tanu weds Manu season 2, Sarkar3, Chalo China, NH-10, Dekho Magar Pyaar Se, Happy Ending and Rana in FY15E. It has largest Indian content library of films with 1100+ films and digital rights to an additional 700 films. Its well positioned to monetize rich content of library ensures annuity and regular set of revenue. Considering diversified and sustainable Business Model along with well positioned to monetize rich content of its library and block buster success ratio of movies (out of the top 10 grossing films in recent years, 3 are from Eros.) make us positive view on the stock. About Company: Eros International Media (EROS) is one of the largest films coproduction and distribution company in India and overseas, engage with presales of overseas rights, music rights and broadcasting rights. It recovers 35-40% of its costs by selling movie rights to channels, recovers another 35-40% from selling its overseas rights to overseas entities. Similarly, it gets 10-15% of the cost of movies by selling music rights . Robust 3QFY14 Result: Company reported better numbers with sales growth of 17% (YoY) led by huge spurt in catalogue monetization, which increase by approx75% (YoY). Its PAT grew by 41%(YoY). During the quarter, Its EBITDA margin improved by 680bps (YoY) to 31.3% because of reduction in operational expenses and employee expenses. Management expects to see EBITDA margin at 25% in FY14E and FY15E than 2022% range of margin in previous 4 years. Recent initiatives: Eros has struck new deals during the period with MSM Satellite Singapore private ltd for broadcast of films on Sony as well as with Viacom18 media for broadcast films on colours. Recently Eros International media has launched two new movie channels HBO DEFINED and HBO HITS, which will reduce its dependence on highly unpredictable revenue streams going forward. View and Valuation: Management is very excited to invest into different medium like internet and launching channels to generate revenue. Company’s optimistic stance towards maintaining margins, strong movies slate and very low valuation makes attractive. At a CMP of Rs 160, stock trades at 1.1 P/BVx FY15. We initiate “BUY” with a target price of Rs 200. Financials Revenue EBITDA PAT EBITDA Margin PAT Margin 3QFY14 432.68 135.6 92.0 31.3% 21.3% 2QFY14 201 51.2 37.0 25.4% 18.4% (QoQ)-% 115.2 165.0 148.8 590bps 290bps 3QFY13 369.3 90.6 65.2 24.5% 17.7% Rs, Crore (YoY)-% 17.2 49.6 41.1 680bps 360bps (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 9
  10. 10. EROSMEDIA Sales and Sales growth(%)(yoy) Key Concerns: 1. Piracy is the key concern for the company. Indian film industry loses approx. Rs.2000 cr. every year due to piracy (source: FICCI-KPMG report 2009). 2. Lower consumer discretionary demand. (Source: Company/Eastwind) 3. Difficult to predict fate of films. Margin-% (Source: Company/Eastwind) Upcoming Movies: Date of Release Q4FY14E 28-Feb-14 21-Mar-14 28-Mar-14 Upcoming movies Director Starcast Shaadi Ke Side Effects Dishkiyaaoon Happy Ending Saket Chaudhary Sanmjit Singh Talwar Raj and DK Farhan Akhtar,Vidya Balan Sunny Deol, Harman Baweja Saif Ali Khan, Ileana D'Cruz Q1FY15 11-Apr-14 6-Jun-14 Kochadaiiyaan Action Jackson Soundarya Ashwin Prabhu Deva Rajnikanth, Deepika Padukone Ajay Devgn, Sonakshi Sinha Q2FY15 12-Sep-14 NH-10 Navdeep singh Anushka sharma,Neil bhoopalam Tanu Weds Manu Season 2 R. Balki Untitled Aankheen 2 Illuminati Untitled Dekh Tamasha Dekh Purani Jeans Chalo china Anand Rai R.Balki Apoorva Lakhia Arif Ali Feroz Abbas Khan Tanushree Basu Shashank Ghosh R.Madhavan,Kangana Ranaut Amitabh Bachchan, Dhanush Abhishek Bachchan Armaan Jain Satish Kaushik and Others Aditya Seal Vinay Pathak, Lara Dutta FY15E (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 10
  11. 11. EROSMEDIA Management Guidance: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6 Catalogue monetization will continue to grow strong in the upcoming quarters. Company will monetize entire portfolio across different platforms Catalogue monetization will increase from 13%-14% to 20-25% of overall revenue in coming 3 to 4 years. Management is looking for more and more free cash flows going forward. Q4 will be very positive and going forward FY15E will also be very positive for the company. Management is very confident about its performance going forward and expects EBITDA margin to be around 25% in FY14E and FY15E. Financials; Rs,cr Sales RM Cost(Operatinal expenses) WIP Employee Cost Other expenses Total expenses EBITDA Depreciation and Amortisation Other Income EBIT Interest PBT Tax Exp PAT Growth-% (YoY) Sales EBITDA PAT Expenses on Sales-% RM Cost Employee Cost Other expenses Tax rate Margin-% EBITDA EBIT PAT Valuation: CMP No of Share NW EPS BVPS RoE-% P/BV P/E FY10 640.88 480.33 0 19.7 27.81 527.84 113.04 4.39 12.62 108.65 9.02 112.25 29.63 82.62 FY11 706.97 495.13 0.84 25.28 29.57 550.82 156.15 3.82 8.95 152.33 9.39 151.89 33.67 118.22 FY12 943.88 665.45 -2.92 22.55 42.96 728.04 215.84 6 19.3 209.84 13.44 215.7 63.14 152.56 FY13 1067.95 765.78 -2.55 27.29 47.47 837.99 229.96 6.45 6.4 223.51 9.22 220.69 61.19 159.5 FY14E 1110.8 766.5 -2.7 29.4 29.4 822.7 288.1 7.7 11.1 280.4 25.4 266.2 77.7 188.5 FY15E 1229.9 860.9 -2.9 36.9 36.9 931.8 298.1 9.2 12.3 288.9 26.0 275.2 80.4 194.8 16.9% 52.8% 72.1% 10.3% 38.1% 43.1% 33.5% 38.2% 29.0% 13.1% 6.5% 4.5% 4.0% 25.3% 18.2% 10.7% 3.5% 3.4% 74.9% 3.1% 4.3% 4.6% 70.0% 3.6% 4.2% 4.8% 70.5% 2.4% 4.6% 6.7% 71.7% 2.6% 4.4% 5.7% 69.0% 2.7% 2.7% 7.0% 70.0% 3.0% 3.0% 6.5% 17.6% 17.0% 12.9% 22.1% 21.5% 16.7% 22.9% 22.2% 16.2% 21.5% 20.9% 14.9% 25.9% 25.2% 17.0% 24.2% 23.5% 15.8% 138.9 9.14 237.55 9.0 26.0 35% 5.3 15.4 138.9 9.14 670.48 12.9 73.4 17.6% 1.9 10.7 181.15 9.17 834.61 16.6 91.0 18.3% 2.0 10.9 180.53 9.19 986.5 17.4 107.3 16.2% 1.7 10.4 160.0 9.2 1158.6 20.5 126.1 16.3% 1.3 7.8 160.0 9.2 1337.0 21.2 145.5 14.6% 1.1 7.5 (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 11
  12. 12. Escorts Ltd. V- "Buy" 5th Mar' 14 "Volume Growth Remains The Key; Retain Buy……." Company update Buy CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 115 175 95 52% 84% Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Capital Mkt (Rs Crores) Average Daily Volume Nifty 500495 ESCORTS 48/96 1,402 225,953 6,298 In February month company witnessed a good tractor volume number. In February 2014 company sold 4,627 tractors, growth of 7.5% against 4,305 tractors in February month of 2013. Domestic sales in February 2014 up by 6.8% stood at 4,581 tractors as against 4,288 tractors in February 2013. Export for the month of February 2014 stood at 46 tractors as that of 17 tractors in February 2013. Also during the last 17 months tractor sales grossed at 94553 units as against 86337 units sold during corresponding period of 15 months last year. Going forward management indicated that volume growth is to be in double digit and at arround 14%. The management further indicated that margins should improve from the current level on the back of improvement in the product mix, taking hikes in the prices, controlling inflation, rid of inflation, as well as cutting down on the other costs. Tractor Volume Stock Performance-% Absolute Rel. to Nifty 1M (7.5) (10.9) 1yr 86.6 77.3 YTD 131.4 121.9 Share Holding Pattern-% Promoter's FII's DII's Others's 3QFY14 42.0 9.4 2.1 46.5 2QFY14 1QFY14 42.0 42.0 12.3 12.1 4.7 5.4 41.0 40.6 (Source: Company/Eastwind Research) Outlook An increase in volumes is an indication of healthy demand. The rise in volumes for this quarter can be attributed to a good monsoon. Tractor sales seem to have improved across all players, indicating an overall improvement in demand. We believe that this segment will continue to support the growth of the company. The adverse macroeconomic conditions, however, will see the performance of its construction equipment segment and auto ancillary segment remaining subdued. For these businesses, the firm is looking at premium product positioning and to deliver a better than expected customer experience. In addition, it is looking at the export market as a window of opportunity especially in the auto ancillary business. Valuation The stock is currently trading at 6.5x FY14E EPS with a negative bias in case of construction equipment segment due to adverse macroeconomic conditions . At current price of Rs. 117, the stock is trading at P/E of 7.1 x for FY13E and 6.5 x the FY14E. Escorts could post EPS of Rs. 12.13 for FY14E and Rs. 12.98 for FY15E. An increase in volumes is an indication of healthy demand. Tractor sales revival has enabled the company to register strong result. Escorts’ EBITDA margin and bottom-line exceeded our expectations. Going forward, we remain positive on the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. Going forward, we remain positive on the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. We expect demand to improve further in FY2014E with the economic recovery. However, we remain cautious with regards to growth in Construction Equipment segment in near-to-medium. Thus, We revise our estimates upwards to factor in the strong CY13 tractor volume performance. We therefore revised our rating on the stock from "Reduce" to "Buy" and advised to our investors to enter at current level with Revised price target of Rs. 175 Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 12
  13. 13. Escorts Ltd. Key financials : PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2014E 18 Months 2015E 2016E 2600 53 2653 160 100 60 67 86 29 57 11 6.3 1.2 3353 27 3380 220 172 48 18 181 49 132 11 12.5 1.0 4101 56 4157 168 120 48 71 104 -15 119 13 11.3 1.2 4049 48 4098 190 139 50 97 90 19 71 13 6.7 1.2 7424 75 7499 438 346 92 135 285 77 208 13 19.7 1.2 6186 60 6246 402 332 70 65 326 88 238 20 22.6 1.9 7424 72 7496 557 473 84 65 479 129 350 20 33.1 1.9 6.2% 3.2% 2.2% 5.7% 1.1% 4.0% 3.1% 6.6% 5.4% 3.9% 5.8% 0.5% 7.8% 6.3% 4.1% 2.5% 2.9% 15.9% 1.7% 6.7% 5.3% 4.7% 2.2% 1.7% 10.6% 1.9% 4.3% 3.2% 5.9% 3.8% 2.8% 17.3% 1.1% 11.4% 9.4% 6.5% 5.2% 3.8% 19.8% 1.7% 11.6% 9.8% 7.5% 6.4% 4.7% 29.1% 1.7% 14.7% 12.7% 1425 402 1827 9 110 1686 405 2091 11 216 1784 486 2270 11 71 1645 554 2199 11 64 1834 390 2224 11 114 2052 375 2427 11 114 2382 375 2757 11 114 157.1 0.7 1.5 17.5 1.4 1.8 159.6 1.4 9.5 17.3 1.6 2.0 168.9 0.4 1.7 6.3 1.8 2.3 155.8 0.4 1.4 9.5 1.8 2.5 173.6 0.7 2.6 5.8 3.3 4.0 194.3 0.6 5.1 5.1 2.5 3.0 225.5 0.5 7.3 3.4 2.7 3.1 Performance Revenue Other Income Total Income EBITDA EBIT DEPRICIATION INTREST COST PBT TAX Reported PAT Dividend EPS DPS Yeild % EBITDA % PBT % NPM % Earning Yeild % Dividend Yeild % ROE % ROCE% Position Net Worth Total Debt Capital Employed No of Share CMP Valuation Book Value P/B Int/Coverage P/E Net Sales/CE Net Sales/Equity (Source: Company/Eastwind Research) (Figures In crore) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 13
  14. 14. Infosys "BUY" 4th March' 14 "Meritocracy to growth" Company update BUY Focus on meritocracy for client satisfaction as well as margin expansion; CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 3793 3910 3620 3% 8% In the recent webcast, Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in Infosys could be asked to leave or may hand over layoff notices. Despite high salaries, some identified employees are not contributing so much to improve productivity and efficiency of operations. Already, the restructuring initiatives has taken place at the top of the pyramid and now shifted to mid level of pyramid. Hence, its pink slip strategy indicates to regain its growth and margin in near term. Considering the strategy to build clients relation, execution of growth oriented policy and combination of reduced onsite costs and higher utilization would be an optimistic growth story despite recent hiccups of top management exit. Key takeaways from recent webcast; Restructuring at middle management: Mr. Murthy has taken initiatives to improve cost efficiency and effective delivery system. The management has rewarded the top performers and has given an opportunity to mediocre performers. Its PIP (performance Improvement Program) followed by exam, and appraisal would dictate the level of efficiency for mediocre, and the situation of involuntary attrition. Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Average Daily Volume Nifty 500209 INFY 3847/2190 217810 1240448 6221 Stock Performance Absolute Rel. to Nifty 1M 4.5 0.8 1yr 30.4 21.6 YTD 53.1 49.4 Share Holding Pattern-% Promoters FII DII Others Current 15.94 40.65 15.35 28.06 1 year forward P/E 2QFY14 1QFY14 15.94 16.04 39.93 39.55 16.16 18.28 27.97 26.13 Cost Rationalization: Company’s employee costs have ballooned very rapidly in the last 2-3 years. For example, on-site compensation was 36% of the overall revenue in FY11 and it went up to 46.3% in FY13, Overall employee cost on sales increased from 52%(FY09) to 56% (FY13). Company has hired a number of employees at higher salaries outside India and employees are not adding efficient growth in productivity. Improving utilization level: Comparing with other peers, its utilization level (excluding trainees) declined from 80% in FY11 to 74% in FY13. Post NRN entry, company had hiked offshore wage at the rate of 8% and overseas at 3%. We expect that company’s management could decide for wage hike across onsite as well as offshore to enhance its utilization rate in near term. View and Valuation: Infosys seems to be on its way to rediscovering its past mojo with revenue momentum kicking, and the NRN invisible hand in play. Further announcement of strategic acquisitions, better utilization of cash balances, better deal win, consistent client traction and revenue momentum would help the company to bridge the gap with rivals such as TCS. On an ongoing basis, Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion, also operating metrics will turn into greenery from hay. Upgradation of earning guidance by management hinted to join the party to enjoy with 12-14% earnings growth for FY14E like other top bellwether. At a CMP of Rs 3793, it trades at 17.4x FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a target price of target price of Rs 3910 . Rs, Crore Financials 3QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY13 (YoY)-% (QoQ)-% Revenue 13026 12965 10424 25.0 0.47 EBITDA 3258.9 2836.9 2677 21.7 14.88 PAT 2874.9 2406.9 2369 21.4 19.44 EBITDA Margin 25.0% 21.9% 310bps 25.7% (70bps) PAT Margin 22.1% 18.6% 350bps 22.7% (60bps) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 14
  15. 15. Infosys. Employee cost on sales-% Employee cost on sales at all time high (Source: Company/Eastwind) Total Employee and additions, Looking to bring in about maximum 6,000 off-campus offers, Infosys will hire up to 16,000 engineers next year. (Source: Company/Eastwind) Headcount Metrics: Its attrition increased to 18% from 17.3%(2QFY14) on LTM basis, however on sequentially basis they have been able to control its attrition. we hope that the further salary hikes across the board will bring down the attrition levels going forward. (Source: Company/Eastwind) Utilization: The Company's Utilization is likely to keep inching up, which could lead to margin expansion for a couple of quarters and that is going to be a huge positive for Infosys as a company. (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 15
  16. 16. Infosys. Key facts from Management Interview; ■ Management upgraded its earning guidance for FY14E from 9-10% to 11.5-12%. This guidnace means the company only has to achieve flat growth in the fourth quarter to meet the projection. ■ With 85% of the company’s revenues coming from clients based in US and Europe, the company should hope the current economic recovery in developed countries would help its revenues. ■They are seeing confidence coming back from client’s metrics. However, they expect [their] budgets only remain stable from last year. Clients are still focused on cost. ■ The Company is looking to bring in about maximum 6,000 off-campus offers starting late January early February, so there is a lot of activity going on that is bringing people in, engaging and developing. Financials Rs in Cr, Sales, INR Employee Cost Other expenses Total Expenses EBITDA Depreciation Other Income EBIT Interest Cost PBT Tax PAT Growth-% Sales EBITDA PAT Margin -% EBITDA EBIT PAT Expenses on Sales-% Employee Cost Other expenses Tax rate Valuation CMP No of Share NW EPS BVPS RoE-% Dividen Payout ratio P/BV P/E FY10 22742 12085 2792 14877 7865 905 982 7942 0 7942 1681 6261 FY11 27501 14856 3677 18533 8968 854 1211 9325 0 9325 2490 6835 FY12 33734 18340 4671 23011 10723 928 1904 11699 0 11699 3367 8332 FY13 40352 22565 6254 28819 11533 1099 2365 12799 0 12799 3370 9429 FY14E 50330 28185 8556 36741 13589 1371 2567 14785 0 14785 3992 10793 FY15E 59631 33691 10734 44425 15206 1624 3578 17160 0 17160 4633 12527 4.8% 9.3% 4.6% 20.9% 14.0% 9.2% 22.7% 19.6% 21.9% 19.6% 7.6% 13.2% 24.7% 17.8% 14.5% 18.5% 11.9% 16.1% 34.6% 34.9% 27.5% 32.6% 33.9% 24.9% 31.8% 34.7% 24.7% 28.6% 31.7% 23.4% 27.0% 29.4% 21.4% 25.5% 28.8% 21.0% 53.1% 12.3% 21.2% 54.0% 13.4% 26.7% 54.4% 13.8% 28.8% 55.9% 15.5% 26.3% 56.0% 17.0% 27.0% 56.5% 18.0% 27.0% 2615 57.4 23049.0 109.1 401.7 27.2% 25.1% 6.5 24.0 2765 57.4 25976.0 119.0 452.4 26.3% 45.9% 6.1 23.2 2865 57.4 31332.0 145.1 545.6 26.6% 24.0% 5.3 19.7 2400 57.4 37994.0 164.2 661.7 24.8% 45.1% 3.6 14.6 3793 57.4 45629.8 188.0 794.7 23.7% 23.0% 4.8 20.2 3793 57.4 54797.5 218.2 954.3 22.9% 19.8% 4.0 17.4 (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 16
  17. 17. Powergrid.. Update BUY CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 95 118 NA 25% NA Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 532898 POWERGRID 1yr 9.5 3.8 YTD 8.1 4.0 Strong Capitalization : Power Grid’s adjusted PAT increased 4.3% YoY to Rs. 1,043 crore in Q3FY14 While asset capitalisation was below estimate Rs. 3050 crore, PGCIL commissioned another Rs. 3450 crore in January 2014 taking overall capitalisation to Rs. 13000 crore YTDFY14. Share Holding Pattern-% Promoters FII DII Others 3QFY14 57.9 25.4 8.6 8.2 Overall revenues increased 9.6% YoY to Rs.3685 crore due to lower than anticipated capitalisation (Rs.3050 crore) in Q3FY14 . Income increased 6.5%, 10.0% and 121.9% YoY in transmission, telecom and consultancy income, respectively. Other income declined 9.7% YoY to Rs.116 crore as cash was deployed across various upcoming projects. Margins declined 336 bps YoY to 87.4% due to 55.7% YoY rise in transmission & other expenses to Rs.333 crore. Tax expenses increased 7.5% YoY to Rs. 399 crore. Q3FY13 included a one-time income of Rs.167 crore as wage revision benefit. Adjusting the same, PAT increased 4.3% YoY to Rs.1,043 crore. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) issued the final tariff regulations for the period FY15-19 – these regulations form the basis of Power Grid’s earnings (regulated returns) from its core transmission business over the next five years.The Key take aways of these Regulations are Normative TAF (NATAF) for incentives lowered; no incentive for TAF >99.75% .Normative O&M charges raised (vs. draft), but still below FY14 levels. Stock Performance-% Absolute Rel. to Nifty 3rd march' 14 116/87 49490 22270 6277 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Average Daily Volume (Nos.) Nifty 1M 8.2 9.5 "Buy" 2QFY14 1QFY14 57.9 69.4 19.4 14.7 8.8 7.6 13.9 8.3 1 yr Forward P/B Capitalisation of assets remains on track. Till Jan end the company has capitalised Rs 118bn of assets which is 70% of our full year estimate. Since last two months of the year usually account for the bulk of yearly commissioning we are confident that the co. will meet our estimate of Rs 170bn for FY14. Power Grid's Raichur-Solapur line has been connected to national grid. Management Says there were four trippings in the first week. Two were to increase reliability and were done intentionally, and the other two were because of a few glitches. For the last month there has been no tripping. View & Recommendation With equity dilution overhang on the stock is removed, so we expect the stock price will drive by purely on its fundamentals, on our estimates we maintain a positive fundamental outlook for Power grid. Also, govt. stake coming down to 58% is a positive, as risk of further equity dilution is reduced The stock is trading at 1.7x FY15E BVPS. We estimate to Power grid stock to trade at 1.8x BVPS. Valuation is very reasonable for a business model with RoE (16%), strong growth visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target price of Rs.118. Source - Comapany/EastWind Research Financials : Revenue EBIDTA Net Profit EBIDTA% NPM% Q3FY14 3685 3105 988 84 27 Y-o-Y % 9.4 6.0 -8.5 -3.1 -16.3 Q-o-Q % -7.9 -8.4 -16.9 -0.6 -9.8 Q3FY13 3369 2930 1080 87 32 Q2FY14 3999 3389 1189 85 30 (In Crs) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 17
  18. 18. N arnolia Securities Ltd 402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lord s Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph 033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000 em ail: research@narnolia.com , w ebsite : w w w .narnolia.com Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly available information, findings of our research wing “East wind” & information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations, should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned in this report/message.

×