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Indian Equity Market Capitalization Today- Buy Stocks of Emami Ltd with Target Price Rs 635.

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Emami’s Ltd focus on increasing rural penetration, favorable monsoon, continuous strengthening of its brand equity. Narnolia Securities Limited recommend “Buy” on the stock with a target price of Rs …

Emami’s Ltd focus on increasing rural penetration, favorable monsoon, continuous strengthening of its brand equity. Narnolia Securities Limited recommend “Buy” on the stock with a target price of Rs 635

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  • 1. IEA-Equity Strategy India Equity Analytics 3rd Jan, 2014 Edition : 176 Emami Ltd : "The niche advantage" "BUY" 3rd Jan 2014 Considering Emami’s focus on increasing rural penetration, favorable monsoon, continuous strengthening of its brand equity and new product funnel strongly in next 2- 3 years, we are positive on the stock. We recommend “Buy” on the stock with a target price of Rs 635. At a CMP of Rs 481 , the stock is trading at P/BV of 10.3x and 7.8x on FY14E and FY15E, respectively. .................... ( Page : 2-3) ANDHRABANK: "REDUCE" 2nd Jan 2014 During quarter (3QFY14) Andhra Bank’s stock performance was ahead of fundamental in our view as there are multiple headwinds associated with bank like earnings quality, impairment of asset, deposits cost etc. Asset quality of bank remained high at 5% and expected to remain at elevated level along with higher restructure asset. According to bank’s management, restructure and non performing asset would consists 18% of total asset in FY14 means 82% of assets has to service 100% of liability which itself challenging especially when bank with average earnings, high cost of fund and downward trajectory of provision coverage ratio. ...................................... ( Page : 4-6) IT Industry; from 2013 to 2014:"a year of innovation and transformation" 1st Jan 2014 Year 2014 promises to be bigger and stronger than the last two years, which were marked by bloodbath in global markets due to Euro-zone crisis and falling consumer confidence in the US. Demand is set to pick up in sectors like BFSI, healthcare, retail and transportation globally in the year ahead. FY 15E is going to be better that FY14E, which was better than FY13. It will be good for us as well as the industry............................................ ( Page : 7-8) Hindustan Zinc LTD : "Neutral" 31th Dec 2013 With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.The Rampura Agucha underground mine project is operational via ramps (tunnel driven downward from the surface) and commercial production will ramp up in Q3 and Q4 of FY14. The Kayad mine project will also commence commercial production in the current fiscal year. A cash-rich balance sheet, low cost of production and inexpensive valuations make HZL an attractive bet at the current price levels. But looking at the lower LME prices for silver and lead we are neutral for this financial year.we Valuing the stock at this level, we recommend Neutral rating on HZL with a target price of Rs.143 for FY14........................ ( Page : 9-11) RELIANCE : Good Growth Ahead "BUY" Reliance Industries Limited registered a turnover of Rs 197112 Cr for the half year ended 30th September 2013, up 4.7% YoY while it had made turnover of Rs 188,193 Cr in 1HFY13. The exports were higher by 19.3% YoY to Rs 134455 Cr for 1HFY14……………….. ( Page : 12-14) J&K BANK : "HOLD" 30th Dec 2013 J&K Bank is one of our prefer bank in mid cap private sector banking space. Currently bank is trading at 1 times of one year forward book and 4.6 times of one forward earnings which we believe bank is still trading at attractive valuation post recent rally. We advice our investor to hold the stock as bank is trading at lower valuation in comparison to private sector banks despite of having sound fundamental. We value bank at Rs.1578/share which is 1.1 times of FY15’s book and 5.2 times of FY15’s earnings. ................................... ( Page : 15-17) DCB : "REDUCE" 27th Dec 2013 DCB is currently trading at 1.3 times of one year forward book which is almost upper side of valuation band. We value the bank at Rs.62/share which is 1.4 times of one year forward book and 15 times of FY14E earnings. Valuation multiple is justified at present fundamental in our view but has potential to expand the multiple once visibility of ROE improvement clearly come to on the floor after 1-2 quarters. ......................................................... ( Page : 18-20) Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  • 2. Emami Ltd "BUY" 3rd Jan' 14 "The niche advantage." Company update BUY CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 481 635 500 32% 27% Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Average Daily Volume Nifty 531162 EMAMI 539/368 10912 37072 6221 Stock Performance 1M -3.3 -4 Absolute Rel. to Nifty 1yr 20.3 15.8 YTD 50.6 33 Share Holding Pattern-% Promoters FII DII Others Current 1QFY14 4QFY13 72.74 72.74 72.74 16.68 15.46 14.46 2.18 3.27 3.45 8.4 8.53 9.35 1 yr Forward P/B Usually, Emami reports good earnings growth for third quarter every year. For 3QFY14E, we expect 20-22% sales growth led by strong rural demand and 22-25% PAT growth on YoY Basis. In addition, we expect to improve margin by 150-200bps (YoY) to 26% because of softening raw material prices. The Company’s major raw material Menthol Prices declined by 34% (YoY), as the company has already forward contracted menthol for the year, menthol prices continue to trend lower and price hikes for the year have been taken. Therefore, margin expansion visibility remains high. We expect better revenue growth in 2HFY14 as the weather related headwinds for cooling oils is behind us and pricing on balms stabilize. Visibility of margin expansion remains high because of benign cost of Menthol. Key facts: Favorable rural discretionary demand: Recently, rural discretionary demand has increased because of favorable monsoon and per capita rural growth. During the 2QFY14, its revenue from urban markets grew 8%, rural markets by 11%. Direct rural business was up by 17%. Stable Ad spend: The ad spends in Q2FY14 have declined by 125bps YoY to 16.6% as a percentage of sales. The ad spends, as a percentage of sales, are expected to be in the range of 16-17% in FY14 and FY15. Capex plan: For FY14 & FY15, they plan to spend INR700-750mn per year. It is setting up a new factory in Guwahati at an investment of INR500-600mn. Strong distribution reach: Although rural continues to grow ahead of urban markets, the growth for Emami has tapered off in both urban and rural areas. While urban markets grew 8%, rural markets by 11% growth. Direct rural business was up by 17%. The company's direct outlet reach is 6 lakh. The company has added 20000 outlets in Q2 and expects to add 75000 – 100000 in FY14. Product expansion: The company has launched Boroplus face-wash last month and there will be new launches in Q4 also. The mgmt said that for next 2 – 3 years it has strong pipeline of products to be launch. View and Valuation: Considering Emami’s focus on increasing rural penetration, favorable monsoon, continuous strengthening of its brand equity and new product funnel strongly in next 2- 3 years, we are positive on the stock. We recommend “Buy” on the stock with a target price of Rs 635. At a CMP of Rs 481 , the stock is trading at P/BV of 10.3x and 7.8x on FY14E and FY15E, respectively. Financials Revenue EBITDA PAT EBITDA Margin PAT Margin 2QFY14 406.7 87.4 80 21.5% 19.7% 1QFY14 383.7 59.2 60.7 15.4% 15.8% Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Rs, Cr (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-% 6.0% 360.7 12.8% 47.6% 64.1 36.3% 31.8% 59.2 35.1% 610bps 17.8% 370bps 390bps 16.4% 330bps (Source: Company/Eastwind) 2
  • 3. Emami Ltd Key facts from recent Conference Call ▪ The management has lowered its annual revenue growth guidance from 16% - 18% to 13% - 15% while PAT guidance continues to stand at 18% - 20% aided by strong gross margin expansion on the back of lower Mentha Oil prices. ▪ Contribution from power brands is ~65%. The company plans to grow these brands by 15-16% in FY14. ▪ The mgmt has guided for a capex of Rs 70 – 75 crore each during FY14 and FY15. ASP for FY14 will be 16% - 17%. ▪ The company has already taken price hikes and no further hikes are expected in FY14E. Total annualized price hike for FY14 is 4% YoY. ▪ Emami has a good cash balance of Rs3bn which it expects to utilize for acquisition. Financials Rs in Cr, Sales Raw Materials Cost Purchases of stock-in-trade WIP Employee Cost Advertisement and Publicity Other expenses Total expenses EBITDA Depreciation and Amortisation Other Income Exceptional Items EBIT Interest PBT Tax Exp PAT Growth-% (YoY) Sales EBITDA PAT Expenses on Sales-% RM Cost Ad Spend Employee Cost Other expenses Margin-% EBITDA EBIT PAT Valuation: CMP No of Share NW EPS BVPS RoE-% Dividend payout-% P/BV P/E FY10 1037.98 380.53 0 0 57.91 194.42 158.66 791.52 246.46 117.52 7 89.97 128.94 20.98 204.93 35.21 169.72 FY11 1247.08 346.76 204.9 -28.48 72.87 219.41 178.17 993.63 253.45 116.09 33.1 113.9 137.36 15.23 269.13 40.41 228.72 FY12 1453.51 415.12 189.13 22.17 92.31 228.99 209.02 1156.74 296.77 120.89 54.12 84.15 175.88 15.21 298.94 40.12 258.82 FY13 1699.09 539.83 182.14 -6.52 115.55 279 241.82 1351.82 347.27 124 56 96 223.2 6.6 368.69 54 314.68 FY14E 1936.23 580.87 203.30 -7.37 135.54 319.48 281.65 1513.46 422.76 131.63 58.09 109.82 291.14 6.86 452.18 66.24 385.94 FY15E 2211.18 685.47 221.12 -8.42 165.84 353.79 321.64 1739.44 471.74 150.32 66.34 125.41 321.42 5.14 508.03 74.42 433.61 35.5% 91.0% 85.0% 20.1% 2.8% 34.8% 16.6% 17.1% 13.2% 16.9% 17.0% 21.6% 14.0% 21.7% 22.6% 14.2% 11.6% 12.4% 36.7% 18.7% 5.6% 15.3% 27.8% 17.6% 5.8% 14.3% 28.6% 15.8% 6.4% 14.4% 31.8% 16.4% 6.8% 14.2% 30.0% 16.5% 7.0% 14.5% 31.0% 16.0% 7.5% 14.5% 23.7% 12.4% 16.4% 20.3% 11.0% 18.3% 20.4% 12.1% 17.8% 20.4% 13.1% 18.5% 21.8% 15.0% 19.9% 21.3% 14.5% 19.6% 197.7 15.1 625.4 11.2 41.3 27.1% 23.4% 4.8 17.6 249.4 15.1 689.9 15.1 45.6 33.2% 23.2% 5.5 16.5 260.8 15.1 706.6 17.1 46.7 36.6% 23.8% 5.6 15.2 397.4 15.1 777.5 20.8 51.4 40.5% 44.6% 7.7 19.1 481 22.7 1070.5 17.0 47.2 36.1% 24.1% 10.2 28.3 481 22.7 1397.9 19.1 61.6 31.0% 24.5% 7.8 25.2 Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. (Source: Company/Eastwind) 3
  • 4. ANDHRABANK Company UPDATE CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous REDUCE 64 66 4 - Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) Average Daily Volume Nifty 532418 ANDHRABANK 130/47.15 1473 1.09lac 6304 Stock Performance 1M Absolute 0.5 Rel.to Nifty -1.4 1yr -46.2 -52.7 YTD -46.2 -52.7 Share Holding Pattern-% Current 4QFY13 3QFY1 3 Promoters 58.0 58.0 58.0 FII 13.3 13.3 13.0 DII 12.4 14.6 15.2 Others 16.4 14.1 13.8 "REDUCE" 2nd Jan, 2014 During quarter (3QFY14) Andhra Bank’s performance was ahead of fundamental in our view as there are multiple headwinds associated with bank like earnings quality, impairment of asset, deposits cost etc. At the end of 2QFY14, bank’s restructure account consists of 10.6% of total asset which will go up 13% of total asset in full year along with 5% of NPA according to the management. This implies that 82% of total asset has to service 100% of liability which would be real challenges for the bank as per our view. In the regards, we analyze trend of impairment asset, earning quality and cost of deposits and tweak our earnings estimate and value bank at 0.4 times of book. Bank’s valuation may come down to 0.3 times (historical low) looking at bank’s own stress and fundamental. We have reduced rating on the stock with price target of Rs.66. High impairment asset with downward trajectory of PCR We observed that bank’s deterioration in asset quality was much ahead of peers group in term of fresh slippage and restructure assets. Bank’s GNPA and net NPA during the last quarter was 5.3% and 3.5% much above of industry average of 3.5% and 2.5% respectively. Asset quality trend is likely to remain at elevated level as per management. Total restructure asset consist of 10.6% of total asset and another Rs.3000 cr are in the pipeline means around 13% of total asset will go for restructure and about 50% of fresh restructure slip into non performing asset. If the trend continued then GNPA would be 5.5% which would itself alarming specially for the bank because its provision coverage ratio without technical write off was low at 33%. Bank has been continuous downward trajectory of PCR which implying very little cushion for its future earnings. Average quality of earnings asset and stress in other segment keep NIM at low Andhra Bank Vs Nifty During 2QFY14, bank’s advance grew by 15% YoY and yield on advance declined to 11.4% as against average run rate of 12%. We model 15% of advance growth with 11% of loan yield for FY14E and FY15E largely due to challenging economic environment and present running trend. Earnings asset especially with loan and investment yield have nothing extraordinary as far as we observed and are likely to remain at average quality. With average quality of earnings asset and stress in other segment would keep NIM at low. Rs, Cr Financials 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E NII 2195 3759 3757 4143 4694 Total Income 3159 4619 4804 5529 6081 PPP 1810 2815 2767 2765 3344 Net Profit 1046 1345 1289 1131 1433 EPS 22.6 24.0 23.0 19.2 24.3 (Source: Company/Eastwind) 4 Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
  • 5. ANDHRABANK CASA trend declined; high cost of deposits Bank’s low cost of deposits (CASA) trend has been declining from 35% in FY07 to 24% in 2QFY14. We observed that bank’s CASA ratio remained stick to 24% in last 7-8 quarters. In rising interest rate scenario, cost of deposits could not be sustained at 7.5 to 8% without adequate support of CASA. In term of deposits cost, Andhra bank’s cost of deposits remain high at 7.7 %( 2QFY14) as compare to peers average of 7%. However we model 7.5% of cost of deposits and 24% of CASA for FY14E and FY15E in line with present trend. View & Valuation Andhra Bank’s stock performance during the quarter (3QFY14) was ahead of fundamental in our view. There are multiple headwinds regarding the earnings and asset quality which would erode the book value in FY14. At the end of 2QFY14, bank’s restructure account consists of 10.6% of total asset which will go up 13% of total asset in full year along with 5% of NPA according to the management. This implies that 82% of total asset has to service 100% of liability which would be real challenges for the bank as per our view. In the regards, we analyze trend of impairment asset, earning quality and cost of deposits and tweak our earnings estimate and value bank at 0.4 times of book. Bank’s valuation may come down to 0.3 times (historical low) looking at bank’s own stress and fundamental. We have reduced rating on the stock with price target of Rs.66. Valuation Band Source:Company/Eastwind Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 5
  • 6. ANDHRABANK Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Interest Income Interest Expense NII Change (%) Non Interest Income Total Income Change (%) Operating Expenses Pre Provision Profits Change (%) Provisions PBT PAT Change (%) 6373 4178 2195 34.9 965 3159 32.1 1350 1810 40.5 374 1436 1046 60.2 11339 7579 3759 71.3 860 4619 46.2 1804 2815 55.5 991 1824 1345 28.6 12910 9153 3757 -0.1 1047 4804 4.0 2037 2767 -1.7 996 1771 1289 -4.1 15555 11412 4143 10.3 1387 5529 15.1 2765 2765 -0.1 1215 1549 1131 -12.3 17818 13124 4694 13.3 1387 6081 10.0 2736 3344 21.0 1382 1963 1433 26.7 77688 31 22864 23 5852 20881 56114 27 105851 36 27947 22 8241 29629 83223 48 123796 17 31759 14 11119 37632 98373 18 142365 15 34168 8 13225 43565 113129 15 163720 15 39293 15 15209 50100 130099 15 Avg. Yield on loans Avg. Yield on Investments Avg. Cost of Deposit Avg. Cost of Borrowimgs 9.2 5.7 4.9 6.4 11.1 6.7 6.6 7.7 10.5 6.6 6.9 5.4 11.0 7.0 7.51 5.5 11.0 7.0 7.51 5.5 Valuation Book Value CMP P/BV 91 108 1.2 134 119 0.9 151 95 0.6 166 63.6 0.4 190 63.6 0.3 Balance Sheet Deposits( Rs Cr) Change (%) of which CASA Dep Change (%) Borrowings( Rs Cr) Investments( Rs Cr) Loans( Rs Cr) Change (%) Ratio Source: Eastwind/Company Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 6
  • 7. IT Industry; from 2013 to 2014 "a year of innovation and transformation" Nifty and CNX IT Performance(2013); 59.5% 6.8% IT Industry with perception "I can do it better" The year 2013 has proved a year of innovation and transformation for IT industry across all verticals and geographies led by healthy demand environment and positive factors for Industry, Indian IT Industry came to track with positive surprise and opportunities. The resilient of $120bn plus IT Industry returned to higher growth trajectory in 2013 and expecting to retain its momentum in the ensuring year for a greater share of global multi-billion dollar IT Industry. With its top 4 bellwethers TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCL- have been consolidated its presence in software service sector. Now, new players with expertise in new emerging services have entered into the marathon race and performing well in all aspects. Indian IT Industry has been successful to maintain double-digit growth again in export as well as in the domestic markets. Factors behind the success story of IT Industry in 2013: (Source: Company/Eastwind) INR/USD&CNX IT Performance(2013); 59.5% 13% (Source: Company/Eastwind) 2013 has been a year of innovation and transformation INR Depreciation: The Indian Rupee (INR) has depreciated against USD roughly by around 13-14% since Jan 1, 2013. The INR depreciation is favorable for all exporters and IT companies. As a thumb rule, a 1% change in value of the rupee against the US dollar has an impact of 3040 bps on the operating margins of a company. During the 2QFY14, across the IT space, companies reported healthy ramp up in operating margin. NASSCOM on positive mood: The Indian IT governing body NASSCOM is expecting to clock 12-14% revenue growth in USD term for FY14E, while Industry had reported 10-12% range of growth in FY13E. Now, we expect higher growth with stable margin trajectory for FY 15E than previous years led by healthy demand scenario and offering new delivery platform like analytics, mobility, cloud, social media and emerging verticals such as healthcare and medical devices. Favorable supply side scenario: Though attrition remained higher than last year, especially among the bellwethers, campus hiring and fresh offers declined during the year. However, utilization rate especially on onsite and offshore are on increasing mode, it indicates favorable supply side scenario for the industry. Pleasant surprise from Euro zone: Euro zone was a pleasant surprise in 2013 with no bad news surfacing from that part of the world. But that does not mean the sovereign debt problems have been solved permanent. The attractiveness of Europe as a market is being reflected in the acquisition activity within Tier-I IT (Valuesource, Equinox and C1 Group by Cognizant, Alti by TCS and Infosys' acquisition of Lodestone). SMAC as new emerging opportunity: SMAC (social, mobile, analytics and cloud ) is throwing up huge opportunities as firms want to optimise investments in current technology and drive growth by using digital technologies and platforms. The digital forces of SMAC will reach mainstream status in 2014 and create requirements, drive new purchasing and establish new competitive realities. Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 7
  • 8. IT Industry; from 2013 to 2014 Performance of Our IT Coverage Highlights of 2013: - Govt mulls fresh incentives for IT companies, -Software exports to grow 12-14% to clock $84-87 billion in FY14E, -Domestic market to also grow 14% to $185 billion in FY14E, -N.R. Narayana Murthy returns to Infosys as chairman, -8 top executives quit Infosys in 6 months, -Wipro hives off non-IT business as separate enterprise, -Industry diversifies into offering new services & products, -Campus hiring and fresh offers dip despite higher attrition, -Thrust on providing IP-led solutions on multiple platforms, Concerns: However, hardening of regulatory related to visa approval in USA, Canada and Australia could spoil the party. Even, the approval of Immigration Bill attached with higher visa fee, wage requirements and enhanced audit by US agencies could turn the growth story of Indian IT players adversely. If passed in its current form, the Bill could hurt the margins (Source: Company/Eastwind) of the Indian IT export sector, which derives almost 55-60% of its revenues from USA. 2014 and IT Industry: Another year of flawless ride Thanks to playing a pivotal role of technology across transforming delivery of diverse services in the government and private sector, the domestic market is also maturing and is one of the fastest in the developing countries. We have seen a significant increase in global technology spending this year, creating opportunities for the Indian software services sector to post double digit growth again in export as well as in the domestic markets. Year 2014 promises to be bigger and stronger than the last two years, which were marked by bloodbath in global markets due to Euro-zone crisis and falling consumer confidence in the US. Demand is set to pick up in sectors like BFSI, healthcare, retail and transportation globally in the year ahead. FY 15E is going to be better that FY14E, which was better than FY13. It will be good for us as well as the industry View and Valuation; Company TCS INFOSYS HCLTECH WIPRO TECHM CMC NIITTECH KPIT HEXAWARE PERSISTENT eCLERX TATAELXSI ZENSARTECH CMP Upside View Target (31.12.13) % 2170.95 BUY 2369.1 9.1% 3485.5 BUY 3982.7 14.3% 1263.1 BUY 1415.5 12.1% 559.05 NEUTRAL 469.97 1838.05 BUY 2329.5 26.7% 1632 BUY 1692.5 3.7% 360.5 BUY 408.32 13.3% 171.55 BUY 177.33 3.4% 131.75 BUY 140.59 6.7% 980.05 REDUCE 960.51 1068.5 BUY 1357.9 27.1% 415.65 REDUCE 236.85 355.85 BUY 439.43 23.5% FY13 71.82 164.2 58.10 25.0 85.48 75.27 36.28 10.80 11.1 46.12 64.25 10.63 40.03 EPS-Rs FY14E 90.74 181.1 71.87 25.15 144.15 101.56 44.03 13.07 13.1 63.40 71.61 17.53 57.16 FY15E 102.37 208.2 83.49 27.4 161.64 110.07 53.38 15.95 14.3 76.92 83.65 19.76 74.62 FY13 30.23 21.23 21.74 22.32 21.50 21.68 9.94 15.88 11.87 21.25 16.63 39.10 8.89 P/E-x FY14E 23.92 19.25 17.57 22.23 12.75 16.07 8.19 13.13 10.09 15.46 14.92 23.72 6.23 FY15E 21.21 16.74 15.13 20.40 11.37 14.83 6.75 10.75 9.21 12.74 12.77 21.03 4.77 FY13 36.42% 24.8% 30.72% 21.7% 35.91% 24.10% 20.0% 20.10% 27.2% 18.1% 43.8% 16.94% 23.22% RoE-% FY14E 36.22% 23.0% 29.10% 18.9% 38.31% 25.81% 19.6% 19.80% 27.0% 20.5% 37.9% 23.55% 26.07% FY15E 32.95% 22.2% 26.39% 17.8% 30.38% 22.92% 19.3% 19.75% 26% 20.4% 34.4% 22.37% 26.34% (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 8
  • 9. Hindustan Zinc LTD. Company Update Neutral CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 133 143 NA 8% NA "Neutral" 31st Dec' 13 Mined metal production in Q2FY14 was 221k tonnes against 190k tonnes YoY basis a growth of 8.5% and 238k tonnes in Q1 FY14. The increase is due to higher production at Rampura Agucha and restarting of Zawar mines. Integrated Refined Zinc production was at 195k tonnes in Q2FY14 against 153k tonnes in Q2FY13 increase of 28%. Integrated Lead Production was at 29k tonnes against 22k tonnes growth of 31% YoY basis. Silver production was at 83 tonnes in Q2FY14 against 77 tonnes YoY basis. The increase in Production of Zinc and lead was on account of improved utilization of smelter capacity. Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Average Daily Volume (Nos.) Nifty 500188 HINDZINC 143/94 56133 5613 6291 Stock Performance-% 1M 4.3 0.0 Absolute Rel. to Nifty 1yr -1.7 9.2 YTD -3.4 11.3 Share Holding Pattern-% 2QFY14 64.9 1.8 31.4 1.8 Promoters FII DII Others 1QFY14 4QFY13 64.9 64.9 1.5 1.5 31.5 2.0 2.1 31.6 1 yr Forward P/B 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jan-07 0 Source - Comapany/EastWind Research Revenue increased due to Depreciation in Rupee Hind Zinc reported net sales of Rs3559 Cr up by 24% YoY and 19% QoQ. The growth was mainly due to higher sales volume and improvement in realisation per tonne. The net realsation per tonne of zinc increased by 15% on YoY basis and 9% QoQ at Rs.131794. The net realization per tonne of Lead remained almost flat on YoY basis and increased by 5% in QoQ basis. The increase in net realization per tone is due to depreciation in rupee. Zinc’s cost of production before royalty during the quarter was Rs.50522 , 8% higher in Rupee and 3% lower in USD terms on YoY basis. The cost of production benefited from higher production volume and operational efficiencies, which were more than offset by rupee depreciation and over Rs 3000/MT decline in by-product credits On YoY basis. The Net Realization per tonne of Silver slumped by 24% on YoY basis. This fall in realization was due to fall in price of silver in LME as company adopts the import parity price. The Company’s EBIDTA zoomed by 28% YoY basis at Rs 1,883 Cr and 30% QoQ basis. Net profit was up 7% to Rs. 1,640 Cr in Q2 The positive impact of higher EBITDA was partly offset by lower other income due to mark-to-market losses on investments during the quarter. Investment Concern HZL’s revenues are directly linked with the global market for products essentially, Zinc and Lead which are priced with reference to LME prices and Silver to LBMA (London Bullion Metal Association) prices. Disruptions in mining due to equipment failures, unexpected maintenance problems , non-availability of raw materials of appropriate price, quantity and quality for our energy requirements, disruptions to or increased cost of transport services or strikes and industrial actions or disputes.Lower than expected demand by galvanizing industries for zinc and industrial batteries, car batteries industries for lead would affect the company estimates. Financials : Q2FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q2FY13 Q1FY14 Net Revenue 3826 13.0 6.2 3387 3604 EBITDA 1883 28.2 25.3 1469 1503 Depriciation 186 6.3 1.1 175 184 Tax 254 -6.3 -4.9 271 267 PAT 1640 6.5 -1.2 1540 1660 (In Crs) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 9
  • 10. Hindustan Zinc LTD. Silver(rs/ounce) Nov-13 Dec-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Jun-13 Apr-13 May-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-13 Source - Comapany/EastWind Research LME Price/Ton Lead Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Feb-13 From the Management Corner : Volatile Desel Price and high Sulphuric acid price affecting the company,s PAT adversly.Company is tracking on 95% capacity utilization.Captive plants enjoy the lower Tax rate and company enjoys zero tax from tax free geographycal areas. Smelting Plants are improvised and management is confident that the smelting plants will maintain their stance for the coming quarters also. Outlook and valuation: With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.The Rampura Agucha underground mine project is operational via ramps (tunnel driven downward from the surface) and commercial production will ramp up in Q3 and Q4 of FY14. The Kayad mine project will also commence commercial production in the current fiscal year. A cash-rich balance sheet, low cost of production and inexpensive valuations make HZL an attractive bet at the current price levels. But looking at the lower LME prices for silver and lead we are neutral for this financial year.we Valuing the stock at this level, we recommend Neutral rating on HZL with a target price of Rs.143 for FY14. LME Price/Ton Jan-13 Lower other income mutes PAT growth: The other income declined by 48.7% yoy to 267cr due to mark to market losses booked by the company during the quarter while depreciation expenses also increased by 6.8% yoy to 186cr. Consequently the adjusted net profit growth was muted at 10.5% yoy to 1,701cr (in-line with our estimate of 1,722cr). Source - Comapany/EastWind Research LME Price/Ton Zinc Narnolia Securities Ltd, Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 125000 120000 115000 110000 105000 100000 95000 90000 May-13 FY14E 13577 1787 15364 1291 707 6484 7093 718 37 1097 6967 18.5 Apr-13 FY13 12700 2032 14732 1070 696 6218 6482 647 29 921 6899 21.4 Mar-13 FY12 11405 1543 12948 1228 568 5336 6069 611 14 1419 5526 20.7 Feb-13 FY11 9912 979 10891 1023 492 4417 5496 475 19 1059 4900 21.8 Jan-13 P/L PERFORMANCE Net Revenue from Operation Other Income Total Income Power, fuel & water Repairs Expenditure EBITDA Depriciation Interest Cost Net tax expense / (benefit) PAT ROE% Source - Comapany/EastWind Research 10
  • 11. Hindustan Zinc LTD. B/S PERFORMANCE Share Reserve & Total equity Long-term Short-term Long-term Trade Short-term Total Intangibles Tangible Capital Long-term Inventories Trade Cash and Short-term Total RATIOS P/B EPS Debtor to Creditors to Inventories FY10 423 17701 18124 0 60 0 478 340 20238 109 6071 1113 361 452 152 928 96 20238 FY10 3.2 95.6 1.9 6.0 0.6 FY11 845 21688 22533 0 0 0 475 567 25053 109 7145 875 594 762 209 5633 158 25053 FY11 2.2 11.6 2.1 4.8 0.8 FY12 845 26036 26881 0 0 0 410 504 29485 47 8466 445 876 798 332 5255 233 29485 FY12 2.1 13.1 2.9 3.6 0.7 FY13 845 31431 32276 0 0 0 484 825 35465 10 8474 1082 1898 1111 403 6942 373 35465 FY13 1.7 16.3 3.2 3.8 0.9 Source - Comapany/EastWind Research ZinC Productions: Source - Comapany/EastWind Research CASH FLOWS Cash from Changes In Net Cash Cash From Cash from Net Cash FY10 4001 77 4077 -3881 -187 8 FY11 4483 -212 4272 -3658 -363 250 FY12 4553 -61 4492 -3499 -1242 -248 FY13 4935 -183 4752 -3234 -1257 262 EBIDTA & Margin : Trading At : 7000 NIFTY HINDZINC 160 6000 140 5000 120 100 4000 80 3000 60 2000 40 1000 20 0 0 Source - Comapany/EastWind Research Narnolia Securities Ltd, 11
  • 12. RELIANCE "BUY" 30th Dec' 13 Good Growth Ahead Company Update BUY CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 878 1040 18% - Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs, Cr) Average Daily Volume Nifty 500325 RELIANCE 954/765 283929 52019 6313 About the Company Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is a conglomerate with business in the energy and materials value chain. The Company operates in three segments: petrochemicals, refining and oil & gas. Half Yearly Business Performance OIL AND GAS (EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION) BUSINESS: Company for half year ended earned Rs 2918 Cr from this business segment down by 38.7% YoY mainly due to Fall in production from KG-D6 owing to geological complexity and natural decline in the fields.The EBIT margin for the segment in 1HFY14 was 24.3% . REFINING & MARKETING BUSINESS Revenue from Refining and Marketing segment during 1HFY14 increased by 5.7% YoY to Rs 178,914 Cr, while EBIT was up 8.3% YoY at Rs 6,125 Cr. GRMs averaged $ 8.0/bbl during 1H FY14 and the refineries achieved an average utilization rate of 112%. 1H FY14 export of refined products was at 22.1 MMT as compared to 19.2 MMT in 1H FY13. Stock Performance-% Absolute Rel. to Nifty YTD 11 -7 PETROCHEMICALS BUSINESS 1HFY14 revenue from the Petrochemicals segment increased by 6.7% YoY to Rs 46,842 Cr. Higher prices accounted for 7.4% growth in revenue. EBIT margin improved to 9.4% in 1H FY14 as compared to 8.0% a year ago. The production during 1HFY14 was 11 Mn Tones verses 11.1 Mn Tonnes in 1HFY13. Current 1QFY14 4QFY1 3 45.3 45.3 45.3 17.7 17.4 17.8 11.8 11.6 11.0 25.2 25.7 25.9 Half Yearly Financial Performance Reliance Industries Limited registered a turnover of Rs 197112 Cr for the half year ended 30th September 2013, up 4.7% YoY while it had made turnover of Rs 188,193 Cr in 1HFY13.The exports were higher by 19.3% YoY to Rs 134455 Cr for 1HFY14. 1M 4 0.5 1yr 6 -1 Share Holding Pattern-% Promoters FII DII Others 1 Yr Price Movement Vs Nifty The operating EBITDA during 1HFY14 was Rs 14924 Cr up 2.3 % YoY on the back of higher margins in refining and petrochemicals business. The cost RM increased by 3 % to Rs 162,094 from Rs 156,975 Cr due to higher crude prices. The employee cost for 1HFY14 was Rs 1707 Cr largely flat on yearly basis. The other expenditure increased by 13.6% YoY to Rs 13,101 Cr primarily due to higher expenses on account of power & fuel consumption and higher selling expenses on account of higher exports. The profit after tax was higher by 9.4% at Rs 10,842 Cr as against Rs 9,912 Cr in the corresponding period of the previous year. The other income for 1HFY14 stands Rs 4595 Cr up 14 % YoY mainly due to higher investment income. Financials Revenue EBITDA PAT EBITDA Margin PAT Margin 2QFY14 103758 9909 5490 9.6% 5.3% 1QFY14 90336 9610 5352 10.6% 5.9% (QoQ)-% 14.9 3.1 2.6 (110bps) (60bps) 2QFY13 87645 9818 5409 11.2% 6.2% Rs, Crore (YoY)-% 18.4 0.9 1.5 (170bps) (90bps) (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 12
  • 13. RELIANCE Continued…. The net addition to fixed assets for the half year ended 30th September 2013 was Rs 20,154 Cr including exchange rate difference capitalization. Capital expenditure was principally on account of ongoing expansions projects in the petrochemicals and refining business at Jamnagar, Dahej, Silvassa and Hazira. The Outstanding debt as on 30th September 2013 was Rs 83,982 Cr compared to Rs 72,427 Cr as on 31st March 2013. The company had cash and cash equivalents of Rs 90,540 Cr. These were in bank deposits, mutual funds, CDs and Government securities / bonds. RIL is debt free on a net basis as at 30th September 2013. Management Commentary The management of the company on their half yearly performance said that diversified and integrated petrochemicals business captured margins across segments and delivered nearrecord profit levels even as the domestic economy slowed. The management further said that optimal utilization of best-in-class refinery assets and inherent flexibility in sourcing, product delivery contributed to healthy operating profits from our refining business . View and Valuation The stock is trading at Rs 878 and in light of half yearly performance, business outlook and management commentary we recommend BUY for the stock with Target Price Rs 1040. Graphical Depiction 2QFY14 SEGMENTAL REVENUE BREAK UP (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 13
  • 14. RELIANCE Sales Trend (Rs/Bn) A better realisation with a weaker rupee and improved volume were the key drivers of the sales growth of both petchem and refinery businesses. (Source: Company/Eastwind) EBITDA & OPM % Despite a healthy revenue growth, OPM remain flat due to a lower margin in the refining and exploration segments (Source: Company/Eastwind) PAT & NPM % The improved margin and higher volume of the petrochemical (petchem) business were the major drivers of the profit in Q2FY2014. (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 14
  • 15. J&K BANK Company Update CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous HOLD 1411 1578 1420 12 11 Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) Average Daily Volume Nifty 532209 J&KBANK 1695/1130 6841 21053 6314 Stock Performance 1M Absolute 3.6 Rel.to Nifty -12.9 30th Dec, 2013 Jammu and Kashmir Bank (J&K Bank) is one of our prefer bank in mid cap private sector banking space. Currently bank is trading at 1times of one year forward book and 4.6 times of one forward earnings which we believe bank is still trading at attractive valuation despite of recent rally. We advice our investor to hold the stock as bank is trading at lower valuation premium in comparison to peers despite of having sound fundamental. We value bank at Rs.1578/share which is 1.1 times of FY15’s book and 5.2 times of FY15’s earnings. Looking at bank’s metrics like Tier1 capital of 13.2%, GNPA of 1.7%, PCR at 92% make it strong for trading at premium valuation as compare to peers group. Strong balance sheet growth continued with margin expansion J&K bank aggressively expanding its loan growth outside of the state and witnessed 20.3% growth whereas within state loan grew by 26.4% in 2QFY14. Management guided loan growth of 20-25% in FY14 premium of industry average of 15%. Deposits growth would be 17-18% in FY14 according to management. Bank’s CASA 1yr 7.8 -0.8 YTD 7.8 -0.8 Share Holding Pattern-% Current 4QFY13 3QFY1 3 Promoters 53.2 53.2 53.2 FII 24.8 24.5 24.3 DII 5.0 4.9 4.9 Others 17.1 17.4 17.7 J&k Bank Vs Nifty "HOLD" ratio at the end of 2Q stood at 39% which keep cost of deposits at 6% of level, one of the lowest in industry. Low cost and high yield asset helped bank to maintain NIM at 4.33%. Bank’s management guided NIM 4%+ level in FY14. Sustainable high return ratio makes a strong case to trade at premium valuation J&K bank has sustainable high return ratio like ROE of 23%+ and ROA of 1.5%+ which help bank to maintain high valuation premium. Operating leverage (operating cost to total asset) of the bank remains at 1.4 to 1.6 times in last few quarters which restrict cost income escalate beyond 36%. Capital adequacy ratio of 13.2% according to basel-II helps bank to maintain high growth trajectory with raising capital in next few years. Stable asset quality with lowest restructure asset comparison to peers At the end of 2QFY14, bank reported GNPA of 1.7% and in absolute basis, GNPA grew by mere 4% QoQ despite of current phase of economy cycle. Restructure loans declined by 70 bps to 3.6% of loans whereas fresh restructure was low at 70 bps of loan. Provision coverage ratio declined by 250 bps QoQ to 89% (without technical write-off) made net NPA to 0.2% from 0.1% in 1QFY14. Financials NII Total Income PPP Net Profit EPS 2011 1544 1908 1149 615 126.9 2012 1838 2172 1370 803 165.7 Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Rs, Cr 2013 2014E 2015E 2316 2595 3091 2800 2979 3817 1811 1906 2443 1055 1128 1478 217.6 232.6 304.9 (Source: Company/Eastwind) 15
  • 16. J&K BANK Quaterly Result (Rs. Cr) Interest/discount on advances / bills Income on investments Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India Others Total Interest Income Others Income Total Income Interest Expended NII Other Income Total Income Employee Other Expenses Operating Expenses PPP( Rs Cr) Provisions PBT Tax Net Profit Balance Sheet Data ( Rs Cr) Net Worth Deposits Borrowings Advances Investment Asset Qaulity ( Rs Cr) GNPA NNPA GNPA(%) NNPA(%) PCR(%) 2QFY14 1244 396 10 0 1650 99 1749 968 682 99 781 177 108 285 496 56 441 138 303 1QFY14 1184 423 17 0 1624 92 1716 969 655 92 747 176 90 266 481 36 445 137 308 2QFY13 1061 417 23 0 1501 91 1592 948 553 91 644 143 78 221 423 33 390 120 270 % YoY Gr % QoQ Gr 17.3 5.0 -5.0 -6.3 -57.4 -42.8 9.9 1.6 9.4 7.9 9.9 1.9 2.1 -0.1 23.4 4.1 9.4 7.9 21.4 4.6 23.6 0.6 38.7 19.4 28.9 7.0 17.5 3.2 69.7 53.7 13.1 -0.9 14.8 1.0 12.3 -1.7 5475 61171 1346 41121 22316 5173 58601 758 39282 21734 4609 54927 922 34272 22521 18.8 5.9 11.4 4.4 45.9 77.7 20.0 4.7 -0.9 2.7 709 78 1.7 0.2 89 665 56 1.7 0.1 92 709 78 2.1 0.2 89 0.0 6.5 0.0 38.2 Source: Eastwind/Company Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 16
  • 17. J&K BANK P/L Interest/discount on advances / bills Income on investments Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India Others Total Interest Income Others Income Total Income Interest on deposits Interest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings Others Interest Expended NII NII Growth(%) Other Income Total Income Employee Other Expenses Operating Expenses PPP( Rs Cr) Provisions Net Profit Net Profit Grwoth(%) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2342 705 11 0 3057 416 3473 1841 83 14 1938 1119 2630 1066 17 0 3713 365 4078 2069 46 54 2169 1544 37.9 365 1908 524 235 759 1149 534 615 20.1 3394 1403 39 0 4836 334 5170 2902 41 54 2997 1838 19.1 334 2172 521 281 802 1370 567 803 30.6 4318 1723 97 0 6137 484 6621 3741 26 54 3821 2316 26.0 484 2800 652 337 989 1811 756 1055 31.4 4959 1892 53 0 6904 383 7287 4217 91 0 4308 2595 12.1 383 2979 633 440 1072 1906 779 1128 6.9 5703 2085 53 0 7841 727 8568 4639 111 0 4750 3091 19.1 727 3817 811 563 1374 2443 965 1478 31.1 44676 20.0 1105 0.4 26194 13.6 19696 41.1 53347 19.4 1241 12.3 33077 26.3 21624 9.8 64221 20.4 1075 -13.4 39200 18.5 25741 19.0 70643 10.0 1230 14.4 45080 15.0 20124 -21.8 77707 10.0 1500 22.0 51843 15.0 22178 10.2 10.2 5.0 7.7 4.9 8.8 5.1 10.0 5.4 7.5 4.6 9.1 4.7 10.3 6.5 8.3 5.4 7.7 5.5 11.0 9.4 8.9 5.8 7.4 5.9 11.0 9.4 10.6 6.0 7.4 6.0 11.0 9.4 10.6 6.0 7.4 6.0 621 1.1 6.4 718 1.2 6.9 844 1.1 5.5 1003 1.3 5.9 1186 1.2 6.1 1441 1.0 4.6 416 1536 366 211 577 958 446 512 Key Balance sheet data Deposits Deposits Growth(%) Borrowings Borrowings Growth(%) Loan Loan Growth(%) Investments Investments Growth(%) 37237 1100 23057 13956 Eastwind Calculation Yield on Advances Yield on Investments Yield on Funds Cost of deposits Cost of Borrowings Cost of fund Valuation Book Value P/BV P/E Source: eastwind/Company Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 17
  • 18. DCB Company Update CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous Book Profit 57.25 62 62 8 - Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) Average Daily Volume Nifty 532772 DCB 54.85/38 1437 2158026 6279 Stock Performance 1M Absolute 19.2 Rel.to Nifty 15.6 1yr 20.4 13.1 YTD 20.4 13.1 Share Holding Pattern-% Current 4QFY13 3QFY1 3 Promoters 18.5 18.5 18.5 FII 11.4 11.4 11.1 DII 14.1 12.5 13.0 Others 56.1 57.7 57.5 DCB Vs Nifty "Book Profit" 27th Dec,2013 Development Credit Bank (DCB) currently trading at 1.3 times of one year forward book which is now almost of higher side of our valuation range. We value the bank at Rs.62/share at the higher side which is 1.4 times of one year forward book and 15 times of FY14E’s earnings. Present valuation multiple justified on account of DCB’s consistent improvement in its return ratio and management guided similar trend of growth in FY14,however bank cited margin could be compressed by 25-30 bps. We can’t rule out the valuation multiple expansions but there is need to watch 1-2 quarters more as per our view Well capitalized and stable asset quality Bank is well capitalized with tier 1 ratio of 13% means no need to raise money in short term. Bank’s management guided loan and deposits growth of 25-27% and 3032% in FY14 which seen possible looking at present scenario. Management is also very focus on low ticket size loan (prefer less than 30 mn) on account of avoiding large slippage. At the 2QFY14, bank reported slippage of Rs.21 cr which was 1.3% in annualized basis. Fresh slippage ratio remains in the range of 1.1-1.5 times in last few quarters, so we believe bank would maintain similar trend in term of fresh slippage which restrict GNPA out of control. Provision coverage ratio at the end of 2QFY14 stood at 84% (without technical write off) and management reiterate PCR to maintain above of 80%. Potential to expand valuation multiple, need to watch growth trajectory 1-2 quarters more On valuation front, DCB valuation could be expanded if visibility of ROE improvement is clearly seen. ROE improvement could be possible in two front- first reducing cost income ratio which will boost the profit and second loan growth specially in high yield segment like SME and MSME. We observed that bank’s CostIncome ratio was higher at 66.2% at the end of 2QFY14. Cost income ratio would reduce to less than 65% in FY14 and would further reduce to 60% in FY15 according to management. To reduce the cost, bank initiated to invest high yield segment, planning to maintain CASA at 30% in long run while in short term does not expect below of 27% and escalating branch network. In FY13 bank opened 10 branches but in 1HFY14, DCB opened 9 branches and will go upto 120-125 branches in FY14. Financials NII Total Income PPP Net Profit EPS 2011 189 301 86 21 1.1 2012 228 328 84 55 2.3 Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Rs, Cr 2013 2014E 2015E 284 127 190 401 272 334 126 95 127 102 95 127 4.1 3.8 5.1 (Source: Company/Eastwind) 18
  • 19. DCB Quarterly Result( Rs Cr) Interest/discount on advances / bills Income on investments Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India Others Total Interest Income Others Income Total Income Interest Expended NII Other Income Total Income Employee Other Expenses Operating Expenses PPP( Rs Cr) Provisions PBT Tax Net Profit 2QFY14 1QFY14 2QFY13 % YoY % QoQ 205.2 201.5 170.9 20.1 1.8 57.9 56.7 47.6 21.8 2.1 5.5 2.3 1.1 378.2 142.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 -45.6 -9.7 268.8 260.7 219.9 22.2 3.1 27.3 45.1 27.5 -0.9 -39.5 296.1 305.8 247.5 19.6 -3.2 177.6 177.6 153.0 16.1 0.0 91.3 83.1 67.0 36.3 9.8 27.3 45.1 27.5 -0.9 -39.5 118.5 128.2 94.5 25.5 -7.6 38.8 37.7 34.1 13.9 2.9 39.6 39.2 33.9 16.8 1.1 78.4 76.9 68.0 15.4 2.0 40.1 51.3 26.5 51.4 -21.8 7.0 8.5 4.4 60.8 -17.4 33.1 42.8 22.1 49.5 -22.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.1 42.8 22.1 49.5 -22.7 Balance Sheet (Rs Cr) Net Worth Deposits Loan 1079 8788 6677 1046 8320 6472 902 7137 5671 19.6 3.2 23.1 5.6 17.7 3.2 Asset quality (Rs Cr) GNPA NPA % GNPA % NPA 235 57 3.5 0.9 226 54 3.5 0.8 226 38 4 0.7 4.0 4.0 50.0 5.6 Source: Company/Eastwind Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 19
  • 20. DCB Income Statement 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Interest Income Interest Expense NII Change (%) Non Interest Income Total Income Change (%) Operating Expenses Pre Provision Profits Change (%) Provisions PBT PAT Change (%) 459 317 142 -28.2 107 249 -21.6 201 48 -36.5 121 -73 -79 -10.1 536 347 189 33.6 112 301 21.2 215 86 79.9 57 29 21 -127.2 717 489 228 20.4 100 328 8.9 244 84 -2.6 29 55 55 157.1 916 632 284 24.9 117 401 22.4 275 126 50.5 24 102 102 85.3 1090 963 127 -55.3 145 272 -32.3 177 95 -24.5 0 95 95 -6.7 1279 1089 190 49.1 145 334 23.0 207 127 33.5 0 127 127 33.5 4787 3 1693 17 504 2018 3460 6 5610 17 1975 17 861 2295 4271 23 6336 13 2035 3 1123 2518 5284 24 8364 32 2272 12 1526 3359 6586 25 9618 15 2597 14 1697 2886 7903 20 11061 15 1825 -30 1952 3318 9484 20 Avg. Yield on loans Avg. Yield on Investments Avg. Cost of Deposit Avg. Cost of Borrowimgs 10.4 4.7 5.9 6.8 9.4 5.8 5.2 6.4 10.1 6.9 6.4 7.2 10.8 5.8 6.4 6.4 9.7 6.8 5.9 6.0 9.7 6.8 5.9 6.0 Valuation Book Value CMP P/BV 30 32.2 1.1 31 45.9 1.5 36 45 1.3 40 45 1.1 44 57.3 1.3 49 57.3 1.2 Balance Sheet Deposits( Rs Cr) Change (%) of which CASA Dep Change (%) Borrowings( Rs Cr) Investments( Rs Cr) Loans( Rs Cr) Change (%) Ratio Source: Eastwind/ Company Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 20
  • 21. N arnolia Securities Ltd 402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lord s Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph 033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000 em ail: research@narnolia.com , w ebsite : w w w .narnolia.com Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly available information, findings of our research wing “East wind” & information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations, should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned in this report/message.