India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Divi’s Laboratories and Godrej Consumer

169 views
99 views

Published on

Divi’s Laboratories Better business model in comparison to other Indian healthcare companies, Narnolia Securities Limited positive for the stock and recommend BUY with target price of Rs 1350 as well as for Godrej Consumer due to 20%+ growth in the domestic market. Also we advice our investors to book part profit at the current level of Axis bank.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
169
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Divi’s Laboratories and Godrej Consumer

  1. 1. IEA-Equity Strategy India Equity Analytics DIVISLAB : Good Growth Ahead "BUY" 19th Dec, 2013 19th Dec 2013 The company posted strong 2QFY4 results with net sales growing to Rs 566 Cr up by 19.7% YoY on the back of good growth coming from all business segments. The generic API grew by 18% YoY to Rs 261 Cr for the quarter and CRAMS business segment grew by 20% YoY to Rs 271 Cr............................................. ( Page : 2-4) AXIS BANK : "Neutral" 19th Dec 2013 Axis bank is trading at 1.6 times of one year forward book which is almost upper side of bear case valuation band. We are not seeing bank’s earnings better than expectation as bank’s has significant exposure in riskier sector like infrastructure and power as compare to its peers. We have taken bank’s valuation multiple in bear case scenario on account of non visibility of ROE improvement and expected muted earnings growth. We assume loan and deposits growth of 16% and 15% along with margin at 3.5%. Better than expected performance will lead price performance and valuation multiple............................... ( Page : 5 - 8 ) Godrej Consumer Product : " Strategy Shining" "BUY" 19th Dec 2013 Its strong 20%+ growth in the domestic household insecticides business is the key growth driver. We expect strong momentum to continue in its international business led by Megasari and consolidation of Darling business. Despite some concerns related to higher leverage, lost domestic focus and currency risk, we remain confident of achieving the 20%+ sales growth with strong PAT growth for FY14E & beyond. ........................................... ( Page : 9-10) BANK OF INDIA : "BUY" 18th Dec 2013 Bank of India is trading at 0.5 times of one year forward book which is the lowest in valuation band despite of performing better than expectation largely due to lower CAR and slower economic growth. With the capital infusion to the tune of Rs.1000 cr and improving sign of asset quality would re-rate the stock as it did previously in our view. The management guided fresh slippage in line with 2QFY and inch up higher restructure asset for December quarter. We believe that current level is attractive entry point for the investor with time horizon more than one year with price target of Rs.235.................................... ( Page : 11- 13) TCS : "Positive commentary" "BUY" 18th Dec 2013 TCS on its management Interview to Media highlighted that; For earning and demand prospect, FY15 will be better than the ongoing fiscal on account of uptick in client spending in the US and Europe and growth in demand for technologies like cloud, mobility and Big Data.We maintain" BUY" view on the stock with a target price of Rs 2550. Taking the INR/USD (average value) at Rs60 for FY14E and Rs59.5 for FY15E, We upgrade EPS from Rs87.4 to Rs90.7 for FY14E and from Rs99.3 to Rs 102.4 for FY15E........................ ( Page : 14-15) UCO BANK : "BUY" 17th Dec 2013 We have the reduce the target price of UCO bank from Rs.94 to Rs. 84 on account of bank’s unlikely to get benefit of western sanction against Iran. Late last month US and six other major powers have imposed sanction against Iran for its nuclear deal. In order to quality for waiver sanction against Iran, India has cut back sharply on purchase of oil from Iran. UCO was the major beneficiary of current account deposits of India-Iran oil facilities. In our banking sector coverage universe, UCO bank’s cost of deposits were lowest at 6.1% whereas yield on loan was 10.1% at the end of 2QFY14. After this development, bank’s margin would be impacted and accordingly UCO bank loses the valuation premium. Although bank’s management is focusing on other area of growth like branch expansion and customer acquisition. We slightly tweak our earnings and reduce our book value estimate from Rs.175.5 to Rs.168.8. Now our revised price target for the stock would be Rs.84 which is 0.5 times of FY14E book value................ ( Page :16-20) JLR VOLUME UPDATE : NOVEMBER 2013 16th Dec 2013 JLR wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Motors come up with November 2013 volume, the company for the month sold 37403 units up by 25% YoY. This total volume of JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover. This month’s performance in particular is marked by stellar performance by Jaguar .................................................... ( Page : 21) Narnolia Securities Ltd, 402, 4th floor 7/1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph 033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000 email: research@narnolia.com, website : www.narnolia.com
  2. 2. DIVISLAB "BUY" 19th Dec' 13 Good Growth Ahead Result Update BUY About The Company : CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 1186 1350 14% - Divi’s Laboratories Limited is an India-based manufacturer of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and Intermediates. Divi is engaged in manufacture of generic APIs, custom synthesis of active ingredients for innovator companies and other specialty chemicals like peptides and nutraceuticals. Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs, Cr) Average Daily Volume Nifty 532488 DIVISLAB 1189/905 15631 5.43 6217 Stock Performance-% 1M Absolute Rel. to Nifty 2.8 0.1 1yr 4.4 -1.3 YTD 1.4 -14.6 Share Holding Pattern-% Promoters FII DII Others Current 1QFY14 4QFY1 3 52.1 52.2 52.2 15.8 14.9 14.0 12.5 12.5 13.3 19.5 20.5 20.5 One Year Price vs Nifty Investment Rationale : Company is one of the few CRAMS (Contract Research and Manufacturing Services) players with a superior business mix comprising high-margin custom synthesis of APIs (Active Pharma Ingredients) and intermediates for innovator companies. The company collaborates with innovators throughout the product development cycle. Post commercialization, company is usually the key supplier of APIs and intermediates for these products to the innovators. In 2012-13, the company added six products to its custom synthesis portfolio. The CRAMS business which contributes nearly 45%- 50% of the total revenues have from Rs 560 Cr in 2009 to Rs 1000 Cr translating CAGR of 15 %.The Generic API business which contributes another 45-50 % to the total revenues is also well track after witness some pressure in FY10.As on FY13 this segment contributed Rs 1029 Cr to the total revenues and this segment to more revenues to the company in the light of upcoming patent cliff of US and new launches . The company have one more business segment ‘Nutraceuticals’ relatively smaller and newer as compared to other business segment can act as growth driver going forward. The management of the company is quite optimistic for this business segment and has guided that this business at 40-50% CAGR (albeit on a low base) over the next 2-3 years. 2QFY14 Results Update. The company posted strong 2QFY4 results with net sales growing to Rs 566 Cr up by 19.7% YoY on the back of good growth coming from all business segments. The generic API grew by 18% YoY to Rs 261 Cr for the quarter and CRAMS business segment grew by 20% YoY to Rs 271 Cr. The company derives almost 45-50% of revenues each from CRAMS and generic API business while rest comes from ‘Nutraceuticals’. The operating EBITDA for the quarter came at Rs 250 Cr and OPM at 43.9 %. Company’s 2QFY14 EBITDA margins were higher than 34.8% reported in Q2FY13 on account of higher gross margins, lower power cost and forex loss in Q2FY13.The RM cost as % of net sales stands at 50% for the 2QFY14 while employee cost as % of net sales was 10 %. Financials Revenue EBITDA PAT EBITDA Margin PAT Margin 2QFY14 567 249 205 43.9% 36.2% 1QFY14 517 197 174 38.1% 33.7% (QoQ)-% 9.7 26.4 17.8 580bps 250bps 2QFY13 474 165 117 34.8% 24.7% Rs, Crore (YoY)-% 19.6 50.9 75.2 910bps 1150bps (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 2
  3. 3. DIVISLAB Continued… The net profits for the 2QFY14 came at Rs 205 Cr and NPM came at 36.2%.The net profits also include forex gain of Rs 31 Cr. The company reports its forex gain under other income headings and forex loss under its other expenditure head. The tax rate for the quarter stands at 22%. Company has capitalized Fixed assets to the tune of Rs120 Cr for H1 FY14. The company will commercialize DSN SEZ by the end of the year and the FDA inspection post that. The new DSN SEZ contribution will start in Q1 FY15E and full benefits will fructify only from Q2 FY15E.The existing DSN blocks contributed Rs125 Cr revenues in Q2 FY14 as against Rs70.8 Cr in Q1 FY14. Management Guidance The management of the company after strong 2QFY14results expects that revenue to grow by 15-20 % (15% guided earlier), with FY15E growth expected above 20%. The management further indicated that this high level of OPM is not sustainable but reiterated that 38% levels OPM is quite reachable . On Power shortage ,which declined the OPM in 1QFY14 has been solved and will aid margin expansion going forward. The capex guidance stands at INR500-600m (apart from INR2b addition from CWIP) and tax rate guidance remains between 23-24%. View & Valuation The company is not only the most profitable company in the CRAMS space, but also features among the most profitable companies in the Indian healthcare sector with EBIDTA margin of 35-40% backed by its strong chemistry skills and custom synthesis presence.The stock is currently trading at CMP of Rs 1186, strong 2QFY14 results ,optimistic management guidance and better business model in comparison to its peers makes us confident for the stock. We are positive for the stock and recommend BUY with target price of Rs 1350. Graphical Depiction Revenue Break Up: 2QFY14 (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 3
  4. 4. DIVISLAB Sales and PAT Trend (Rs) Net sales growing to Rs 566 Cr up by 19.7% YoY on the back of good growth coming from all business segments. (Source: Company/Eastwind) OPM % 2QFY14 EBITDA margins were higher than 34.8% reported in Q2FY13 on account of higher gross margins, lower power cost and forex loss in Q2FY13. (Source: Company/Eastwind) NPM % The 2QFY14 PAT also include forex gain of Rs 31 Cr. The company reports its forex gain under other income headings and forex loss under its other expenditure head. (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 4
  5. 5. AXIS BANK Company Update CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous NEUTRAL 1286 1325 1247 3 6.3 Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) Average Daily Volume Nifty 532215 AXISBANK 1549/763 39764 2066127 6217 Stock Performance 1M Absolute 12.9 Rel.to Nifty 12.6 "NEUTRAL " 19th Dec, 2013 Axis bank is trading at 1.6 times of one year forward book which we believe that it is higher side of our bear case valuation band. We have neither seen valuation band expansion nor did earnings lead price performance. Axis bank has significant exposure in infrastructure and power (12.64% in 2QFY14) as compare to its peer group. Asset quality pressure may persists in coming quarters which restrict bank’s valuation multiple in the range of 1.4 to 1.6 times of book in our view. We advice our investors to book part profit at the current level. Our valuation multiples are based upon bank’s present growth parameters, better than expected performance and visibility of ROE improvement will expand valuation and multiples. Healthy NII growth on the back of margin improvement and loan growth During 2QFY14, Axis bank reported NII growth of 26.2% YoY largely due to 50 bps YoY improvement of margin and 577 bps YoY increased of credit deposits ratio and 17% increased in loan growth. Axis bank’s interest earnings assets increased by 20% YoY whereas interest bearing liabilities increased by 13% YoY. Total revenue of the bank grew by 21.3% YoY to Rs.4703 cr. Non- interest income registered 1yr -5.2 -10.9 YTD -5.2 -10.9 Share Holding Pattern-% Current 4QFY13 3QFY1 3 Promoters 33.9 33.9 33.5 FII 40.7 4094.0 39.6 DII 8.8 8.5 10.0 Others 16.6 16.6 17.0 growth of 14% YoY to Rs.1766 cr. Declined in cost income ratio led robust growth in operating profit Operating expenses increased by 12.1% YoY to Rs.1953 cr in which employee cost and other operating cost increased by 11.4% and 12.5% respectively. Cost income ratio declined by 440 bps to 41.5% from 44.9% in 2QFY13. Employee cost and other operating cost as a percentage of total assets remain flat at 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. With the support of healthy NII, fee income and improvement of cost income, operating profit grew by 29% YoY and -3.3% in QoQ to Rs.2750 cr. Sequential declined of operating profit was due to gain of treasury income in 1QFY14 which was absent in 2QFY14. Axis Bank Vs Nifty Sequentially stable asset quality help to make lower provision On asset quality front, Axis bank reported 10 bps deterioration in GNPA on sequential basis to 1.4%. In absolute term GNPA increased by 10% QoQ and provision increased by 12% QoQ. This led net NPA increased by 6% sequentially. In percentage term NPA stood at 0.4%, flat on QoQ basis. Provision coverage ratio (without technical write off) was improved by 100 bps to 69.3% and PCR at technical write off was 89%. During quarter bank made loan loss provision of Rs.687 cr versus Rs.712 cr in 1QFY14 and Rs.509 cr in 2QFY13. On sequential basis risky sector like power and infrastructure exposure remain flat at 12.64% from 12.67% in 1QFY14. Rs, Cr Financials 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E NII 6566 8026 9666 12620 14710 Total Income 11238 13513 16217 19715 21804 PPP 6377 7413 9303 11238 12429 Net Profit 3340 4224 5179 6343 6977 EPS 81.4 102.2 110.7 135.2 149.1 (Source: Company/Eastwind) 5 Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  6. 6. AXIS BANK Healthy NII growth and controlled CI ratio along with stable margin help to boost up profit With the support of healthy NII growth and controlled operating expenses led net profit of 26% YoY to Rs.1362 cr from Rs.1081 cr. Consequently ROA improved by 12 bps to 1.6% and ROE declined to 15.3% from 17.5% in 2QFY13 largely due to operating leveraging. Modest deposits growth and strong traction in loan growth On business growth parameters, bank’s total business grew by 12% YoY to Rs.4567 bn as against Rs.4077 bn. Deposits grew by moderate pace with 8% YoY while current deposits and saving deposits grew by 9% and 18% respectively taking overall CASA ratio to 42.9%. Bank’s strategy to focus on retail deposits seem well is shaping as share of retail deposits in term deposits increased continuously to 45.2% from 40.3% in21QFY13. Loan grew by 17% YoY to Rs.20130 bn. Incremental loan growth came from retail advance and SME segment. Share of retail loan increased to 30.2% of overall loan from 25.7% in 2QFY13. Bank’s has decreased in share of risky sector (Power & Infrastructure) exposure to 12.64% from 13.63% in 2QFY13. Credit deposits ratio improved by 577 bps YoY to 78.8% implying best utilization of excess liquidity in balance sheet. Sequential declined of margin owing to flat loan yield During quarter bank reported 7 bps QoQ declined in NIM to 3.79% led by 500 bps sequentially declined of credit deposits ratio and almost flat of loan yield on QoQ basis. Loan yield during the quarter was 10.5% and cost of deposits declined from 7.4% to 7.1% sequentially. Valuation & View Axis bank delivered good set of numbers during quarter but exposure to stress sector remain at 12%+ level. Moreover Axis bank has higher exposure in small, medium enterprises and infra segment in comparison to peers. In challenging macro environment and tight liquidity situation, Axis bank is more vulnerable among peers. At the current price of Rs.1286, stock is trading at 1.6 times of one year forward book which is upper side of bear case valuation band. We advice book part profit at current level. We value bank at multiple of 1.4 to 1.6 times of one year forward book which implies Rs. price range of Rs.1247 to Rs.1325. Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 6
  7. 7. AXIS BANK Quarterly Result Interest/discount on advances / bills Income on investments Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India Others Total Interest Income Fee Income Trading Income Miscellaneous Income Others Income Total Income Interest Expended NII Other Income Total Income Employee Other Expenses Operating Expenses PPP( Rs Cr) Provisions PBT Tax Net Profit 2QFY14 5394 2143 35 37 7609 1432 5 329 1766 9375 4672 2937 1766 4703 644 1309 1953 2750 687 2062 700 1362 1QFY14 5189 2015 34 39 7278 1317 440 24 1781 9059 4413 2865 1781 4647 643 1160 1803 2844 712 2131 722 1409 2QFY13 % YoY Gr % QoQ Gr 4736 13.9 4.0 1897 13.0 6.3 22 58.9 2.6 32 14.9 -5.5 6687 13.8 4.6 1343 6.6 8.7 207 -97.6 -98.9 0 1270.2 1551 13.9 -0.9 8238 13.8 3.5 4360 7.2 5.9 2327 26.2 2.5 1551 13.9 -0.9 3877 21.3 1.2 578 11.4 0.1 1164 12.5 12.9 1742 12.1 8.3 2136 28.8 -3.3 509 35.0 -3.5 1626 26.8 -3.2 545 28.4 -3.1 1081 26.0 -3.3 Balance Sheet Date ( Rs Bn) Net Worth Deposits Loan 362 2554 2013 349 2384 1982 252 2356 1721 43.6 3.7 8.4 7.1 16.9 1.6 Asset qualtiy( Rs Cr) GNPA NPA %GNPA %NPA 2734 838 1.4 0.4 2490 790 1.3 0.4 2191 654 1.3 0.4 24.8 9.8 28.1 6.1 Source: Eastwind/Company Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 7
  8. 8. AXIS BANK FINANCIALS & ASSUPTION Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Interest Income Interest Expense NII Change (%) Non Interest Income Total Income Change (%) Operating Expenses Pre Provision Profits Change (%) Provisions PBT PAT Change (%) 15155 8589 6566 31.2 4671 11238 25.3 4860 6377 22.4 3033 3345 3340 34.8 21995 13969 8026 22.2 5487 13513 20.2 6100 7413 16.2 3189 4224 4224 26.5 27183 17516 9666 20.4 6551 16217 20.0 6914 9303 25.5 4124 5179 5179 22.6 33243 20622 12620 30.6 7095 19715 21.6 8478 11238 20.8 2176 9062 6343 22.5 38426 23716 14710 16.6 7095 21804 10.6 9376 12429 10.6 2461 9967 6977 10.0 189166 34 77758 18 26268 71788 142408 36 219988 16 91412 18 34072 92921 169760 19 252614 15 112100 23 43951 113738 196966 16 290506 15 124917 11 51266 129873 228481 16 334081 15 143655 15 58956 149354 265037 16 460 1404 3.1 549 1146 2.1 708 1304 1.8 828 1288 1.6 957 1288 1.3 Balance Sheet Deposits( Rs Cr) Change (%) of which CASA Dep Change (%) Borrowings( Rs Cr) Investments( Rs Cr) Loans( Rs Cr) Change (%) Valuation Book Value CMP P/BV Source: Eastwind/Company Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 8
  9. 9. Godrej Consumer Product "BUY" 19th Dec' 13 " Strategy Shining" Company update CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous BUY 840 960 725 14% 32% Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) Average Daily Volume Nifty 532424 GODREJCP 977/693 28593 120012 6217 Stock Performance 1M Absolute -2.1 Rel. to Nifty -4.8 1yr 17.6 11.5 YTD 27.0 8.8 Share Holding Pattern-% Current 1QFY14 4QFY13 Promoters 63.3 63.3 63.5 FII 28.7 28.3 28.2 DII 1.2 1.2 1.2 Others 6.8 7.2 7.1 1 yr Forward P/B Key facts from recent Management Comments: ▪ Godrej Consumer's management is hopeful of seeing an uptick in the urban demand and the rural demand is expected to be strong due to good harvest. We expect 20-22% (YoY) sales growth for 3QFY14. ▪ The company does not see company’s margins coming under pressure going ahead, due to heavy investments it has made in advertisements. We expect 15-15.5% EBITDA margin for FY14E and 15.5-16% for FY15E. ▪ On International revenue front, Godrej Consumer could see some threads in certain areas especially Indonesia (18% of sales) and Nigeria (13% of sales), Indonesia is going into election next year and in Nigeria, there have been wage hikes. ▪ Godrej Consumer aims to grow 10 times in the next 10 years. Key updates; Demand Pickup scenario: On demand side scenario, we expect that the strong agricultural season leading to strong rural GDP growth would support to improve demand environment very soon. Considering recent GDP growth and Current Account Deficit (CAD) numbers, we are expecting that the economy is moving to track and urban demand will see some picking up. Strong focus on driving growth with 10x10 strategy: Its strong focus on driving growth in the domestic and international market by expansion of products and distribution reach, we expect strong earning in near future. With launching new products in domestic as well as international mkt, Godrej CP will explore organic & inorganic growth. Along with its 3x3 strategy, it has 10x10 strategy also, which refers to 10x growth in 10 yrs. Products strategy: The company continues to gain and enjoy market leader ship position across all three formats. The company is driving increase in penetration with launch of "Goodknight Advanced colour play". The company has launched Goodknight aerosol and coil in Nigeria. Recent developments: The Company has entered into an agreement on Oct 7, 2013, to acquire a 30% stake in Bhabani Blunt Hair Dressing Pvt Ltd, a premier hair salon company with one of the strongest consumer franchises in this space. View and Valuations: Its strong 20%+ growth in the domestic household insecticides business is the key growth driver. We expect strong momentum to continue in its international business led by Megasari and consolidation of Darling business. Despite some concerns related to higher leverage, lost domestic focus and currency risk, we remain confident of achieving the 20%+ sales growth with strong PAT growth for FY14E & beyond. At a CMP of Rs840, stock trades at 5.7x FY15E P/BV. We retain BUY with a price target of Rs 960. Financials Rs, Cr 2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-% Revenue 1961.7 1724.9 13.7% 1600.32 22.6% EBITDA 299.8 225.4 33.0% 248.96 20.4% PAT 195 133 46.6% 159.31 22.4% EBITDA Margin 15.3% 13.1% 210bps 15.6% (30bps) PAT Margin 9.9% 7.7% 220bps 10.0% (10bps) (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 9
  10. 10. Godrej Consumer Product Quaterly snapshot: Qtrly, -1 Sales Gr(YoY) PAT Gr(YoY) EBITDA Margin -2 Margin PAT 2QFY12 23% -2.6% 18.0% 12.0% 3QFY12 36% 68.3% 20.1% 13.9% 4QFY12 31% 36.0% 18.9% 13.5% 1QFY13 39% -45.5% 14.5% 12.1% 2QFY13 35% 24.7% 15.6% 10.8% 3QFY13 26% 3.1% 16.8% 11.3% 4QFY13 30% 58.7% 16.2% 13.3% 1QFY14 23.9% 1.8% 13.1% 9.0% 2QFY14 22.6% 22.4% 15.3% 10.9% 3QFY12 20.4% 20.6% 31% 9% 5% 4QFY12 20.2% 20.7% 19.3% 16.3% 10.5% 1QFY13 15.1% 18% 19% 3% 13% 2QFY13 17.6% 19% 16% 4% 9% 3QFY13 18% 20% 20% 8% 5% 4QFY13 16.7% 19% 7% 9% 13% 1QFY14 15.8% 15% 13% 3% 9% 2QFY14 18.9% 17% 14% 7% 10% Regionwise margin: Regions India Indonesia Africa Latin America Europe 2QFY12 18.9% 19.4% 26.0% 7.4% 11% Financials and Valuation Rs, in Cr Sales Other Operating Income Total income from operations RM Cost Purchases of stock-in-trade WIP Employee Cost Ad Spend Other expenses Total expenses EBITDA Depreciation and Amortisation Other Income Exceptional Item EBIT Interest PBT Tax Exp PAT Growth-% (YoY) Sales EBITDA PAT Expenses on Sales-% RM Cost Ad Spend Employee Cost Other expenses Tax rate Margin-% EBITDA EBIT PAT Valuation: CMP No of Share NW EPS BVPS RoE-% Div- Payout-% P/BV P/E FY10 2041.2 2.5 2043.7 619.59 367.16 -40.45 151.81 132.8 402.98 1633.89 409.81 23.6 44.81 0 386.21 11.1 419.92 80.33 339.59 FY11 3693.6 28.11 3721.71 1458.28 294.12 -45.22 284.51 352.85 695.96 3040.5 681.21 49.92 24.13 41.14 631.29 43.64 652.92 138.21 514.71 FY12 4866.16 45.93 4912.09 2174.67 356.11 -212.26 391.91 449.86 850.47 4010.76 901.33 64.44 6.07 200.17 836.89 65.84 977.29 226.05 751.24 FY13 6390.79 16.58 6407.37 2640.31 451.03 -118.06 590.68 660.35 1196.46 5420.77 986.6 77 67.78 96.12 909.6 77.45 996.05 179.18 816.87 FY14E 7823.32 20.30 7843.62 3176.67 552.13 -183.50 723.08 902.02 1459.0 6629.4 1214.2 94.3 47.8 78.4 1119.9 61.1 1185.1 225.17 959.9 FY15E 9198.58 23.86 9222.44 3781.20 649.19 -224.07 850.19 1014.47 1689.7 7760.7 1461.7 102.1 56.2 92.2 1359.6 53.2 1454.9 290.98 1163.9 46.3% 95.2% 97.0% 81.0% 66.2% 51.6% 31.7% 32.3% 46.0% 31.3% 9.5% 8.7% 22.4% 23.1% 17.5% 17.6% 20.4% 21.3% 30.3% 6.5% 7.4% 19.7% 19.1% 39.2% 9.5% 7.6% 18.7% 21.2% 44.3% 9.2% 8.0% 17.3% 23.1% 41.2% 10.3% 9.2% 18.7% 18.0% 40.5% 11.5% 9.2% 18.6% 19.0% 41.0% 11.0% 9.2% 18.3% 20.0% 20.1% 18.9% 16.6% 18.3% 17.0% 13.8% 18.3% 17.0% 15.3% 15.4% 14.2% 12.7% 15.5% 14.3% 12.2% 15.8% 14.7% 12.6% 261.0 30.8 954.7 11.0 31.0 35.6% 30.6% 8.4 23.7 365.0 32.4 1725.2 15.9 53.2 29.8% 38.3% 6.9 23.0 559.0 34.0 2815.2 22.1 82.8 26.7% 22.6% 6.8 25.3 836.0 34.0 3313.0 24.0 97.4 24.7% 23.0% 8.6 34.8 840.0 34.0 4073.9 28.2 119.7 23.6% 20.7% 7.0 29.8 840.0 34.0 5038.8 34.2 148.1 23.1% 17.1% 5.7 24.6 (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 10
  11. 11. BANK OF INDIA Company Update CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous BUY 206 235 14 - Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) Average Daily Volume Nifty 532149 BANKINDIA 393/126 12260 2271804 6139 Stock Performance 1M Absolute -14.5 Rel.to Nifty -13.7 1yr -32.2 -37.1 YTD -32.2 -37.1 Share Holding Pattern-% Current 1QFY14 4QFY1 3 Promoters 64.1 64.1 64.1 FII 13.2 13.6 13.5 DII 15.3 15.6 16.3 Others 7.4 6.7 6.0 BANKINDIA Vs Nifty "BUY" 18th Dec, 2013 Despite of improving fundamental from past two quarters, Bank of India is trading at 0.5 times of one year forward book which is the lowest level in our valuation parameters. We believe that current level is attractive entry point for the investor with time horizon more than one year. With the capital infusion of Rs.1000 cr by GoI and improving sign of asset quality would re-rate the stock in our view as it previously witnessed i.e. 0.8 to 1.2 times of book. The management has guided fresh slippage of about Rs.1500 cr and restructures to the tune of Rs.1000-1200 cr in 3QFY14 which is in line with 2QFY14. We recommend buy with price target of Rs. 235 Shown Improving sign of asset quality with higher recovery and up-gradation rather than write-off Most of banks especially PSUs are beaten down by the market on account of slower economic growth and stress in asset quality. But Bank of India has witnessed improvement in asset quality in 2QFY14 as fresh slippages were down by 26% sequentially and 46% Year-on-year basis. Moreover bank reported reduction to the tune of Rs.1009 cr versus Rs.1338 cr in 1QFY14. Most of reduction was due to higher recovery and up-gradation rather than write-off. Write-off came down sharply from Rs.598 cr 1QFY14 to Rs.120 cr in 2QFY14. Inch up restructure guidance in 3QFY14 As far as restructure loan are concern, bank’s total restructure loan was about 5% of total loan asset and bank’s management expects Rs.1000-1200 cr of restructure in December quarter. In 2QFY14, bank sold about Rs.370 cr of bad loan to Asset Reconstruction Company (ARC) for recovery and during quarters its plan to sell about Rs.500 cr of bad loan to ARC. Sequentially improving PCR provide cushion on stress asset Despite of stable asset quality and lower slippage, Bank of India provided 24% more provision in sequential basis which improved its provision coverage ratio(Without technical write off) to 63.3% from 61% in preceding quarter same year. Higher provision would provide cushion on stress asset without hurting profit going further. Capital infusion by GoI raise CAR ratio to 8.1% from 7.75% Bank has lower CAR to 7.75% at the end of 2QFY14 according to Basel 3 norm. Now Bank of India has approved to initiate process to raise further capital for issue of 4.63cr Equity Shares to GoI on Preferential basis at a price of Rs. 215.70 per share. This capital infusion is taking CAR ratio to 8.1% and government holding rise to 66.7% from 64.1%. Capital infusion to the tune of Rs.1000 cr diluting our FY14E’s book value by 40 bps. Rs, Cr Financials 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E NII 7878 8313 9024 12110 11804 Total Income 10519 11635 12790 16672 16366 PPP 5398 6694 7458 9670 9492 Net Profit 2542 2678 2749 3533 3269 EPS 46.5 46.7 47.9 61.6 57.0 (Source: Company/Eastwind) 11 Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
  12. 12. BANK OF INDIA Quarterly Result Interest/discount on advances / bills Income on investments Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India Others Total Interest Income Others Income Total Income Interest on deposits Interest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings Others Interest Expended NII Other Income Total Income Employee Other Expenses Operating Expenses PPP( Rs Cr) Provisions Net Profit 2QFY14 6631 2129 479 0 9239 1100 10340 5966 414 333 6712 2527 1100 3627 897 628 1525 2102 1232 622 1QFY14 6190 1885 465 0 8541 1181 9722 5401 296 308 6004 2537 1181 3718 963 575 1537 2180 695 964 2QFY13 % YoY Gr % QoQ Gr 5881 12.8 7.1 1835 16.0 12.9 289 65.6 2.9 0 42.9 36.4 8005 15.4 8.2 894 23.1 -6.8 8900 16.2 6.4 5154 15.8 10.5 536 -22.8 40.0 119 179.8 8.2 5810 15.5 11.8 2196 15.1 -0.4 894 23.1 -6.8 3090 17.4 -2.4 700 28.2 -6.8 536 17.1 9.3 1236 23.4 -0.8 1854 13.4 -3.6 1552 -20.6 77.4 302 106.0 -35.5 Balance Sheet Data Equity Capital Reserve & Surplus Deposits Borrowings Other liabilities and provisions Total Liability Cash in hand Cash and balances with reserve bank of india Investment Advance Fixed Assets Others Assets Total Assets 597 25,686 432,282 41,751 12,727 513,042 24,621 34,658 107,413 332,190 2,957 11,203 513,042 575 21,774 332,695 29,434 11,262 395,739 17,080 19,198 90,147 256,148 2,839 10,327 395,739 575 21,774 332,695 29,434 11,262 395,739 17,080 19,198 90,147 256,148 2,839 10,327 395,739 9873 6156 3.0 1.9 37.6 8765 5947.3 3.0 2.0 32.1 8898 5,228 3.4 2.0 41.2 Asset Quality GNPA NPA GNPA(%) NPA(%) PCR(%) Without technical write off 3.9 3.9 18.0 18.0 29.9 29.9 41.8 41.8 13.0 13.0 29.6 29.6 44.2 44.2 80.5 80.5 19.2 19.2 29.7 29.7 4.2 4.2 8.5 8.5 29.6 29.6 11.0 12.6 17.7 3.5 Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 12
  13. 13. BANK OF INDIA Financials & Assuption Interest/discount on advances / bills Income on investments Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India Others Total Interest Income Others Income Total Income Interest on deposits Interest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings Others Interest Expended NII Other Income Total Income Employee Other Expenses Operating Expenses PPP( Rs Cr) Provisions Net Profit 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 15570 5195 798 295 21858 2642 24500 12218 813 950 13981 7878 2642 10519 3492 1629 5121 5398 2909 2542 46.0 20241 7142 834 264 28481 3321 31802 17957 1145 1065 20167 8313 3321 11635 3069 1871 4941 6694 4016 2678 5.3 23139 7261 1257 251 31909 3766 35675 20238 1489 1158 22885 9024 3766 12790 3131 2201 5332 7458 4709 2749 2.7 29515 8828 1889 1 40233 4562 44795 25422 1419 1281 28123 12110 4562 16672 4131 3965 7002 9670 5254 3533 28.5 31171 10152 1889 1 43213 4562 47775 28709 1419 1281 31410 11804 4562 16366 4055 3892 6874 9492 5406 3269 -7.5 299559 30 22021 -2 213708 26 86677 27 318216 6 32114 46 248833 16 86754 0 381840 20 35368 10 289367 16 94613 9 434075 14 36854 4 347241 20 110351 17 503527 16 37953 3 366720 6 126904 15 7.3 6.3 6.5 4.1 8.0 4.3 8.1 8.7 7.8 5.6 6.9 5.8 8.0 7.1 7.7 5.2 6.8 5.3 8.5 8.0 8.4 5.7 7.5 6.5 8.5 8.0 8.4 5.6 7.5 6.2 322.7 1.5 10.3 365.3 1.0 7.7 416.9 0.7 6.3 469.4 0.4 3.8 510.4 0.4 4.1 Key Balance Sheet Data Deposits Deposits Growth(%) Borrowings Borrowings Growth(%) Loan Loan Growth(%) Investment Investment Growth(%) Eastwind Calculation Yield on Advances Yield on Investments Yield on Funds Cost of deposits Cost of Borrowings Cost of fund Valuation Book Value P/BV P/E Source: Eastwind/Company Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 13
  14. 14. TCS "BUY" 18th Dec' 13 "Positive commentary" Company update Buy CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous 2047 2550 2160 25% 18% Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Average Daily Volume Nifty 532540 TCS 2258/1198 400775 1011877 6139 Stock Performance 1M 16.6 12.3 Absolute Rel. to Nifty 1yr 71.8 64.7 YTD 72 64.3 Share Holding Pattern-% Promoters FII DII Others Current 73.96 16.14 5.44 4.46 1 year forward P/E 1QFY14 4QFY13 73.96 73.96 16.14 14.96 5.44 6.45 4.46 4.63 TCS on its management Interview to Media highlighted that ▪ For earning and demand prospect, FY15 will be better than the ongoing fiscal on account of uptick in client spending in the US and Europe and growth in demand for technologies like cloud, mobility and Big Data. ▪ For next 3-5 years, momentum picking for social, mobile, analytics and cloud (SMAC) technologies could offer a "multi-billion dollar opportunity" in revenues for the company. ▪ On the hiring front, TCS will hire about 25,000 college graduates who will join the firm in the next fiscal. Besides, the firm will also be hiring across geographies like the US and Europe to keep up with demand for services. During current fiscal year, TCS has recruited 45000 head counts so far. TCS Q3 analyst briefing key takeaways; Adversely impacted by seasonality but nothing unexpected, Marginal Revenue growth impacted by seasonality: TCS management has indicated rd that 3 quarter, FY14E will be slightly impacted by broad bases furloughs across Industries and thin project based services. Revenue will be impacted mainly in developed market like US and Europe region. We expect that revenue growth could be seen at 3-3.5% for 3QFY14E. Persistent Margin picture: The Company expects margins could be broadly stable. The company would take a decision on reinvestment only after the Rupee stabilizes. We expect that company could maintain EBITDA margin at 30-31% during the 3rd quarter. Confident on IT spending: Despite furloughs impact, it remains confident of growth in the medium term as clients were heading into their CY2014E budgeting cycle in a more confident position than in the past 2-3 yrs. Broadly US and Europe region will play a key role for better demand enviromnment ahead, however domestic market could be out of race due to upcoming election. We continue to believe that TCS will be star performer in growth sense than other peers. Hence, we are maintaining 17% revenue growth in dollar term for FY14E because of improved demand environment, while NASSCOM expects 12-14% for the Industry. We continue to be positive on demand prospect for TCS. View and Valuation: We continue to remain positive on demand outlook and margin profile. We continue to be positive on demand environment and company’s strength of efficient deal execution. We advise that TCS now seem to be trading ahead of fundamentals; At a price of Rs 2047, it is trading at 22.6x FY14E earnings, We maintain" BUY" view on the stock with a target price of Rs 2550. Taking the INR/USD (average value) at Rs60 for FY14E and Rs59.5 for FY15E, We upgrade EPS from Rs87.4 to Rs90.7 for FY14E and from Rs99.3 to Rs 102.4 for FY15E. For FY14E and FY15E, we expect 17% and 20% revenue growth in USD term and retain positive stance as outperformance continues. Financials Revenue EBITDA PAT EBITDA Margin PAT Margin 2QFY14 20977.24 6632.95 4633.33 31.6% 22.1% 1QFY14 17987.07 5144.12 3839.5 28.6% 21.3% Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. (QoQ)-% 16.6 28.9 20.7 300bps 80bps 2QFY13 15621.03 4438.39 3434.65 28.4% 22.0% Rs, Crore (YoY)-% 34.3 49.4 34.9 320bps 10bps 14
  15. 15. TCS. Quarterly snapshot Qtrly, Volume Growth Sales Growth, USD Term Sales Growth, INR Term PAT Growth, INR Term EBITDA Margin PAT Margin 2QFY12 6.3% 4.7% 7.7% -5% 29.1% 19.8% 3QFY12 3.2% 2.4% 13.5% 36% 31.0% 23.8% 4QFY12 3.3% 2.4% 0.4% -7% 29.6% 22.0% 1QFY13 5.3% 3.0% 12.1% 14% 29.1% 22.3% 2QFY13 5.0% 4.6% 5.1% 4% 28.4% 22.0% 3QFY13 1.3% 3.3% 2.9% 3% 29.0% 22.1% 4QFY13 4.4% 3.1% 2.2% 2% 28.1% 22.0% 1QFY14 6.1% 4.1% 9.5% 6% 28.6% 21.3% 2QFY14 7.30% 5.4% 16.6% 21% 31.6% 22.1% FY10 6339 30029.0 10879.6 4570.1 1262.0 4622.8 21334.4 8694.6 601.8 59.1 272.0 8033.7 16.1 8289.6 1197.0 7092.7 7000.6 FY11 8187 37325.1 13850.5 5497.7 1743.7 5054.3 26146.2 11178.9 686.2 49.1 604.0 10443.6 26.5 11021.2 1830.8 9190.3 9068.6 FY12 10171 48894.3 18571.9 6800.5 2391.3 6694.8 34458.5 14435.8 860.9 57.1 428.2 13517.9 22.2 13923.8 3399.9 10524.0 10414.0 FY13 11569 62989.5 24040.0 8701.9 3763.7 8443.9 44949.6 18040.0 1016.3 63.7 1178.2 16960.1 48.5 18089.8 4014.0 14075.7 13917.4 FY14E 13507.44 81044.64 30796.96 10941.03 4862.68 10130.58 56731.25 24313.39 1268.47 57.54 405.22 23044.92 48.53 23401.61 5616.4 17785.2 17785.2 FY15E 16202.45 96404.56 37115.76 13978.66 6748.32 12532.59 70375.33 26029.23 1508.88 76.73 1928.09 24520.35 48.53 26399.91 6336.0 20063.9 20063.9 8.0% 21.3% 31.8% 29.2% 24.3% 28.6% 29.6% 24.2% 31.0% 29.1% 14.5% 13.7% 28.8% 25.0% 33.7% 16.8% 28.7% 34.8% 26.4% 20.0% 19.0% 7.1% 12.8% 29.0% 26.8% 23.6% 30.0% 28.0% 24.6% 29.5% 27.6% 21.5% 28.6% 26.9% 22.3% 30.0% 28.4% 21.9% 27.0% 25.4% 20.8% 36.2% 15.2% 4.2% 15.4% 14.4% 37.1% 14.7% 4.7% 13.5% 16.6% 38.0% 13.9% 4.9% 13.7% 24.4% 38.2% 13.8% 6.0% 13.4% 22.2% 38.0% 13.5% 6.0% 12.5% 24.0% 38.5% 14.5% 7.0% 13.0% 24.0% 780.8 195.7 18466.7 36.2 94.4 38.4% 28.1% 8.3 21.5 1182.5 195.7 24504.8 47.0 125.2 37.5% 50.8% 9.4 25.2 1322.0 195.7 29579.2 53.8 151.1 35.6% 37.5% 8.7 24.6 1563.0 196.0 38645.7 71.8 197.2 36.4% 41.2% 7.9 21.8 2047.0 196.0 49103.5 90.7 250.5 36.2% 41.2% 8.2 22.6 2047.0 196.0 60901.0 102.4 310.7 32.9% 41.2% 6.6 20.0 Financials Rs, Cr Net Sales-USD Net Sales Employee Cost Overseas business expenses Services rendered by business associates and others Operation and other expenses Total Expenses EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation Other Income EBIT Interest Cost PBT Tax PAT PAT ((Reported PAT)) Growth-% Sales-USD Sales EBITDA PAT Margin -% EBITDA EBIT PAT Expenses on Sales-% Employee Cost Overseas business expenses Services rendered by business associates and others Operation and other expenses Tax rate Valuation CMP No of Share NW EPS BVPS RoE-% Dividen Payout ratio P/BV P/E (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 15
  16. 16. UCO BANK Company Update CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Change from Previous Market Data BSE Code NSE Symbol 52wk Range H/L Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) Average Daily Volume Nifty Stock Performance 1M Absolute 16.3 Rel.to Nifty 14.1 BUY 74 84 14 532205 UCOBANK 86.65/46 5561 2960821 6154 1yr 0.6 -7.0 YTD 0.6 -7.0 Share Holding Pattern-% Current 1QFY14 4QFY1 3 Promoters 69.3 69.3 69.3 FII 4.2 3.9 3.2 DII 12.4 12.5 13.0 Others 14.2 14.3 14.6 UCO Bank Vs Nifty "BUY" 17th Dec, 2013 We have the reduce the target price of UCO bank from Rs.94 to Rs. 84 on account of bank’s unlikely to get benefit of western sanction against Iran. Late last month US and six other major powers have imposed sanction against Iran for its nuclear deal. In order to quality for waiver sanction against Iran, India has cut back sharply on purchase of oil from Iran. UCO was the major beneficiary of current account deposits of India-Iran oil facilities. In our banking sector coverage universe, UCO bank’s cost of deposits were lowest at 6.1% whereas yield on loan was 10.1% at the end of 2QFY14. After this development, bank’s margin would be impacted and accordingly UCO bank loses the valuation premium. Although bank’s management is focusing on other area of growth like branch expansion and customer acquisition. We slightly tweak our earnings and reduce our book value estimate from Rs.175.5 to Rs.168.8. Now our revised price target for the stock would be Rs.84 which is 0.5 times of FY14E book value. Strong performance in NII on account of lower cost of deposits During quarter UCO bank’s performance was better than expectation as bank’s NII grew by 55% YoY to Rs.1569 Cr aided by interest income growth of 5.92% and interest expenses de-growth of 9.68%. On yearly basis credit deposits ratio declined to 71.6% from 72.6% but loan and deposits growth of 15% and 16% supported overall business growth and hence margin expansion. Other income de-grew by 1.6% YoY to Rs.209 cr largely due to lower treasury gain. Total income registered growth of 45.1% YoY to 1779 cr. Stable asset quality on sequentially In absolute term GNPA was flat on QoQ basis and registered mere deterioration of 3% largely due to asset quality. During quarter bank’s reported fresh slippages were Rs.725 cr as against Rs.629 cr in 1QFY14. Out of Rs.725 cr, over Rs.400 cr slippages came from infra segment alone. In percentage term GNPA stood at 5.3% from 5.7% in 1QFY14. In absolute term provision increased by 6% QoQ taking net NPA increased to 7% QoQ. In absolute term NPA was 3.1% flat on sequential basis. Provision coverage ratio without technical write off stood at 46.6% as against 45.1% in 1QFY14 and 41.1% in 2QFY13. Financials NII Total Income PPP Net Profit EPS 2011 3845 4770 2695 907 16.5 2012 3902 4868 2811 1109 17.7 Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Rs, Cr 2013 2014E 2015E 4582 4721 5533 5534 6063 6875 3357 4184 4744 618 1573 1977 9.3 23.7 29.7 (Source: Company/Eastwind) 16
  17. 17. UCO BANK Higher earnings on account of robust growth in NII, lower CI ratio and flat provisions Net profit during the quarter registered growth of 286% YoY to Rs.400 cr largely due to higher NII growth, lower cost income ratio and lower provision on account of stable asset quality. Consequentially ROE and ROA improved to 17.4% and 0.88% from 4.5% and 0.4% in 2QFY13 respectively. Current deposits grew almost double led CASA improvement On balance sheet growth front, bank’s deposits grew by 16% YoY to Rs.1888 bn supported by current account deposits growth of 173% YoY and 12% rise in saving deposits. CASA deposits registered the growth of 56% YoY to Rs.60096 cr. In percentage of total advances, CASA stood at 31.8% from 23.7% in 2QFY13. Growth in current deposits was on account of providing facilities to Indo Iran trade payments which is presently covering 45% of oil imports from Iran and India export. Going forward 100% of oil import from Iran is to be covered and further fertilizer import from Iran is also being considered by Government. This facilities will generated almost about 17000-18000 cr as per management. Loan grew by 15% YoY to Rs.1352 bn. Margin improved due to higher declined of cost of deposits than loan yield Net interest margin of the bank improved by 11 bps YoY to 2.84% from 2.73% in 1QFY14 due to 22% YoY declined cost of deposits to 6.09% from 7.44% in 2QFY13. Lower cost was account of higher growth in low cost current deposits. Yield on loan (EW calculated) for the quarter stood at 10.1% from 10.1% in 1QFY14 and 10.9% in 2QFY13. Management expects NIM of 3% at the end of year end on the back of current deposits support. Valuation & View We have the reduce the target price of UCO bank from Rs.94 to Rs. 84 on account of bank’s unlikely to get benefit of western sanction against Iran. Late last month US and six other major powers have imposed sanction against Iran for its nuclear deal. In order to quality for waiver sanction against Iran, India has cut back sharply on purchase of oil from Iran. UCO was the major beneficiary of current account deposits of India-Iran oil facilities. In our banking sector coverage universe, UCO bank’s cost of deposits were lowest at 6.1% whereas yield on loan was 10.1% at the end of 2QFY14. After this development, bank’s margin would be impacted and accordingly UCO bank loses the valuation premium. Although bank’s management is focusing on other area of growth like branch expansion and customer acquisition. We slightly tweak our earnings and reduce our book value estimate from Rs.175.5 to Rs.168.8. Now our revised price target for the stock would be Rs.84 which is 0.5 times of FY14E book value. Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 17
  18. 18. UCO BANK Fundamental through graph Source:Eastwind/Company Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 18
  19. 19. UCO BANK Quarterly Result Interest/discount on advances / bills Income on investments Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India Others Total Interest Income Others Income Total Income Interest Expended NII Other Income Total Income Employee Other Expenses Operating Expenses PPP( Rs Cr) Provisions PBT Tax Net Profit 2QFY14 3396 1026 8 14 4444 209 4653 2875 1569 209 1779 382 230 612 1166 759 408 7 400 1QFY14 3152 968 37 49 4207 462 4669 2843 1364 462 1826 376 185 562 1264 741 523 12 511 2QFY13 3230 897 32 37 4196 213 4409 3183 1013 213 1226 332 180 512 714 597 116 13 104 Balance Sheet Equity Capital Reserve & Surplus Net Worth Deposits Borrowings Other Liabilities & Provisions Total Liabilities Cash & Balance with Bank Balance with bank & money at call Investments Advances Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets 2576 8195 10770 188779 6605 6262 212416 7081 8045 55193 135233 977 5887 212416 2576 7719 10295 177050 6462 6566 200373 7600 8218 52999 125141 926 5489 200373 2488 6644 9132 162567 6601 4773 183073 7585 1957 49589 118045 815 5082 183073 Asset Quality GNPA NPA % GNPA % NPA % PCR(Without technical writeoff) 7,376 4228 5.3 3.1 46.6 7,178 3939 5.7 3.1 45.1 % YoY % QoQ 5.1 7.7 5,888 3468 5.0 2.9 41.1 14.4 5.9 -73.7 -77.3 -61.9 -71.6 5.9 5.6 -1.6 -54.7 5.6 -0.3 -9.7 1.1 54.9 15.1 -1.6 -54.7 45.1 -2.6 15.2 1.6 27.7 24.2 19.6 9.1 63.4 -7.8 27.1 2.3 249.9 -22.1 -42.5 -39.0 285.9 -21.7 3.5 0.0 23.3 6.2 17.9 4.6 16.1 6.6 0.1 2.2 31.2 -4.6 16.0 6.0 -6.6 -6.8 311.1 -2.1 11.3 4.1 14.6 8.1 19.9 5.5 15.8 7.2 16.0 6.0 25.3 2.8 21.9 7.3 Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 19
  20. 20. UCO BANK Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Interest Income Interest Expense NII Change (%) Non Interest Income Total Income Change (%) Operating Expenses Pre Provision Profits Change (%) Provisions PBT PAT Change (%) 11371 7526 3845 65.4 925 4770 45.0 2075 2695 58.0 1788 907 907 -10.4 14632 10730 3902 1.5 966 4868 2.0 2056 2811 4.3 1661 1150 1109 22.3 16752 12170 4582 17.4 952 5534 13.7 2177 3357 19.4 2710 647 618 -44.2 20313 15592 4721 3.0 1342 6063 9.6 1880 4184 24.6 2596 1588 1573 154.5 24333 18800 5533 17.2 1342 6875 13.4 2131 4744 13.4 2548 2196 1977 25.6 99071 32031 6 5475 42927 99071 20 115540 17 34403 7 12901 45771 115540 17 128283 11 55733 62 9492 52245 128283 11 153939 20 67707 21 12315 62692 153939 20 184727 20 81249 20 14777 75231 184727 20 Avg. Yield on loans Avg. Yield on Investments Avg. Cost of Deposit Avg. Cost of Borrowimgs 8.6 6.6 4.7 12.5 9.9 7.1 6.5 6.1 10.0 7.1 6.6 7.0 10.0 7.5 7.0 6.0 10.0 7.5 7.1 6.0 Valuation Book Value CMP P/BV 135 107 0.8 137 79 0.6 146 50.1 0.3 169 74.55 0.4 183 74.55 0.4 Balance Sheet Deposits( Rs Cr) Change (%) of which CASA Dep Change (%) Borrowings( Rs Cr) Investments( Rs Cr) Loans( Rs Cr) Change (%) Ratio Source: Company/Eastwind Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. 20
  21. 21. JLR VOLUME UPDATE : NOVEMBER 2013 Strong Performance For The Month. JLR wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Motors come up with November 2013 volume, the company for the month sold 37403 units up by 25% YoY. This total volume of JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover. This month’s performance in particular is marked by stellar performance by Jaguar with volume growth of almost 55 % YoY while the Land Rover portfolio has grown by 20 % YoY.The new F type Jaguar is getting good response.Company manage to sell 557 units of F-Type this month. The volumes for JLR across geographies came relatively, good all the geographies have done well except for UK where volume de grew by 1%YoY. The markets of china continues to do well for the company. The Chinese market have grown over 40% YoY for the JLR followed by ROW markets. The performance of JLR on Geography Wise has been Tabulated as under : Monthly Performance of JLR : Geography Wise Model Nov-13 Nov-12 Change % (YoY) UK 5231 5276 -1% North America 6657 4843 37% Europe 7300 6829 7% China 9751 6879 42% Asia Pacific 1882 1428 32% All other markets 6582 4638 42% (Source: Company/Eastwind) The various models under JLR portfolio have grown well for the company however Jaguar XJmodel has done exceptionally well .The company has sold 6244 units of Jaguar for the Nov2013.The Land Rover is also growing good for the company. The Range Rover Evoque has grown by 10% YoY to 10953 units for the month. The Table shows the Performance of Jaguar Portfolio : Model Wise. Monthly Performance of Jaguar : Model Wise Model Nov-13 Nov-12 Change % (YoY) XF 3825 2743 39% XJ 1628 1004 62% XK 234 284 -18% F-TYPE 557 NA (Source: Company/Eastwind) The Table shows the Performance of Land Rover Portfolio : Model Wise. Monthly Performance of Land Rover: Model Wise Model Nov-13 Nov-12 Change % (YoY) Defender 1615 1274 27% Freelander 4124 4517 -9% Discovery 3424 3683 -7% New Range Rover Sport 6833 0 NA Range Rover Sport 106 4909 NA Range Rover 2 1417 NA Range Rover Evoque 10953 9919 10% New Range Rover 4102 143 NA (Source: Company/Eastwind) Earlier management said that company would invest 1.5 billion pounds for new technicallyadvanced aluminum vehicle architecture in forthcoming models. The first new model to utilize this innovative architecture will be an all-new mid-sized sports sedan from Jaguar. The product will be launched by 2015. We continue to like Tata Motors, led by strong volume traction at JLR to continue over the coming months as new Range Rover Sport get rolled out across more geographies, in addition to continued traction from RR and F-Type, which in turn will boost realisation and margin. Narnolia Securities Ltd, Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
  22. 22. Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly available information, findings of our research wing “East wind” & information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations, should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned in this report/message. 22

×