Advice to Investor Today: Hold the Stock of ICIC Bank and Book Profit on ACC Limited

357 views

Published on

Narnolia Securities Limited believe the ACC Limited stock's fundamental is still good and price too cheap also , but for the earning upgradation and revised target price we would like to see the 1st quarter earnings,hence we recommend Book Profit on the stock at a price range between Rs.1253 to Rs.1310. Also Hold the Stock of ICIC Bank. For more information please go through this PDF

Published in: Economy & Finance
1 Comment
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • I've tried loads of these products, and every single auto trader has cleaned me out. I have to admit, I've tried Google Trader system and had much more success, typically an 85% success rate daily on trades. If anyone wants free coaching on Google Trader go to http://po.st/googletrade and you'll see for yourself. I cannot recommend this service enough, everyone has been very helpful when I call. If you're serious about trading then this is the only option.
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
357
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
1
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Advice to Investor Today: Hold the Stock of ICIC Bank and Book Profit on ACC Limited

  1. 1. "BOOK PROFIT" 18th Mar 2014 No doubt the stock's fundamentals are good and also available at a cheaper rate comparing to its early trade . In the previous one month the stock performed well & recover 20-22% from its estimated low of CY2013. We didn't expected this rise to be so fast.The CMP was estimated for a medium term target price looking at its earnings and fundamentals . How ever the target price got achieved few days back. we believe the stock's fundamental is still good and price too cheap also , but for the earning up gradation and revised target price we would like to see the 1st quarter earnings, hence we recommend Book Profit on the stock at a price range between Rs.1253 to Rs.1310. ......................................................................... ( Page : 2-4) IEA-Equity Strategy 18th Mar, 2014 Edition : 226 V-Guard Industries Ltd: "Colling Gun……..." "BUY" 14th Mar 2014 Infosys: "Recovery delayed, but not denied" "BUY" 14th Mar 2014 AXIS BANK : ICICI BANK : "HOLD" 18th Mar 2014 In our earlier note dated 31st Jan.2014 in which we have given the price target of Rs.1094 lower side of valuation band. Now the stock reached to the level of Rs.1214 but still below of our upper side of valuation band. We value bank in the range of Rs. 836 to Rs.1287 depending upon the fundamental and return ratios. Since our result updated report, the stock has given the return of 24%, now we advice our investor to hold the stock as bank has potential to reached at upper side of valuation band. ........................ ( Page : 5-10) ACC Limited : At current market capitalization of Rs. 23444 Crores, the stock is trading at a forward P/B of just 0.9. Tata Steel is a blue chip stock and is available at a very cheap valuation. But if we look at its historical stock performance, in the past three years it had continued to trade between 0.6 to 1.9 P/B range.With the European crisis behind us, US economy getting stronger and better outlook for Indian economy on the expectation of stable government at the Center, We feel Tata Steel share price may have some more price appreciation left given the improvement in financial performance and Outlook. We recommend Buy on the stock at a medium term target price of Rs.401. ............................................................................ ( Page : 19- 21) Addressing an Investor Con Call, Infosys management has expressed its cautious view on earnings outlook as well as clients spending for near term. They indicated that FY14E would be a year of lower earnings than NASSCOM guidance followed by FY13 and FY12. The company’s knee jerk has not associated with single factor; these are partly company specific and partly external factors. .......................................................................................................... ( Page : 14 - 15) Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd : "Turnarround Counter" "BUY" 13th Mar 2014 The company was the first to get 5 star rating for energy efficiency for its products from BEE. In addition to submersible pumps, company also producing Vertical Multistage Centrifugal pumps, Pressure booster pumps, Open well pumps, End suction pumps etc. Recently company introduced pumps working with solar power. In next three years company incline to achieve sale revenue of Rs. 600 crore with the net margin of 9-10%. Company is planning to increase the Branch Network to 30 and Dealer network to 3 fold in coming few year. Further, Company have plans to register our presence in all BRICS, G20 and European Union and in other growing countries in coming years. On valuation front shakti pump is available at a single digit PE and EV/EBIDTA of 5.6x/4.1x and 4.7x/3.8x of its FY14E/15E estimates. In a volatile market, a company available at single digit valuations certainly looks up for grabs .................................................................... ( Page : 22-24) On recent interview management expect a sales growth of around 10% in 4QFY14 on back of strong sales growth of 12-12.5% in January and February month of 2014. Last financial year for Q4 company had very low margins because of two reasons, higher ad spend and one-off items. As Vguard product portfolio consist of 65-70% summer facing in nature and we believe that the strong summer expectation in 2014 and low base of FY14 would lead a revenue growth of at least 18% in FY14E. ....................................................................... ( Page : 16-18) "BOOK PROFIT" 14th Mar 2014 Recent rally in Axis Bank is fundamentally not justified but is the result of sentiment boost up lead by Modi effect. Opinion poll suggests BJP led NDA would come to power after the general election. NDA prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is perceived by foreign investor as a decisive and development making leader. Market participates have hope for revival in economy and business growth opportunity to start again. This would be result of diminishing NPA buffer and profitability boost up. We advice our clients to book part profit. ....................................................................................... ( Page : 11- 13) "BUY" 14th Mar 2014TATA STEEL Ltd : Narnolia Securities Ltd, India Equity Analytics Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities
  2. 2. ACC Ltd. 1253 1257 1257 0% 0% 500410 19634 9817 6063 Holcim eyeing Jaypee Group's cement grinding plant in Panipat 1M 1yr YTD Absolute -3.5 -22.3 -21.0 Rel. to Nifty -1.9 -24.4 -22.8 Cureent 3QCY13 2QCY13 Promoters 50.3 50.3 50.3 JP Associates looks to exit JV with SAIL FII 20.0 20.9 19.5 DII 12.9 11.9 11.7 Others 16.8 16.9 18.6 Management Quotes : Financials : Q4CY13 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q4CY12 Q3CY13 Net Revenue 2792 -12.2 8.6 3180 2570 EBITDA 361 -9.3 26.2 398 286 Depriciation 153 -3.2 6.3 158 144 Interest Cost 12 -55.6 9.1 27 11 Tax -36 -190.0 -170.6 40 51 PAT 278 16.3 129.8 239 121 (In Crs) 2 Market Data BSE Code ACC Source - Comapany/EastWind Research According to Management the economic environment in the country was sluggish, thus impacting the demand for cement and concrete. As a result, the company's cement volumes remained almost flat. The company appears not enthusiastic for demand growth going forward. Based on current demand indications, we do not foresee any significant improvement in the cement. 52wk Range H/L 1355/912 CMP Upside Change from Previous Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Result Update Book Profit Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Stock Performance-% Share Holding Pattern-% 1 yr Forward P/B Average Daily Volume (Nos.) Nearly we saw a upward rally in stocks due to the forecasting of a stable government after election by the market players. The sentimental effect on market is on positive side ,hence the low valued stock like ACC took very less time like one month to come to its near fare value, which we had estimated for a medium term target. No doubt the stock's fundamentals are good and also available at a cheaper rate comparing to its early trade . In the previous one month the stock performed well & recover 20-22% from its estimated low of CY2013. We didn't expected this rise to be so fast.The CMP was estimated for a medium term target price looking at its earnings and fundamentals . How ever the target price got achieved few days back. we believe the stock's fundamental is still good and price too cheap also , but for the earning upgradation and revised target price we would like to see the 1st quarter earnings, hence we recommend Book Profit on the stock at a price range between Rs.1253 to Rs.1310. Holcim Cements has expressed interest in the grinding unit which has an annual capacity of 1.5 million tonnes per annum and the talks are at a preliminary stage. Holcim wants to expand its presence in North India through this strategic asset and will take a call if this potential deal can be routed through ACC cements.ACC Cements has a cement plant nearby in Himachal Pradesh and if JP's grinding unit is absorbed, it would be beneficial logistically and even in terms of costs. JP Associates,looking to sell its entire stake in its cement joint ventures with SAIL to cut down its debt.The company is likely to part with its 74% stake in Bhilai and Bokaro cement plants that together have an installed capacity of 4.3 mtpa. As per the story , the company is eying around Rs. 2900 crore from the deal with cement major ACC.The deal with ACC if it happens would imply enterprise value of USD 147 per MT as against USD 127 per MT it got for Gujarat plant sale. NSE Symbol Target Price Previous Target Price Nifty "Book Profit" 18th March' 14 Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  3. 3. Outlook Valuation And Recommendation Company Description : Margin Gap Margin Gap CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E 10237 11358 11169 13027 191 263 219 219 10428 11621 11389 19723 2199 2384 2384 0 1940 2219 2299 0 8316 9162 9540 10942 1921 2197 1848 2084 510 569 584 639 97 115 52 50 215 391 132 323 1276 1050 1094 1292 17.7 18.8 13.8 15.3 3 Depriciation Source - Comapany/EastWind Research Tax PAT ROE% Power and fuel Freight and forwarding Expenditure EBITDA Cement Realization Cement Realization Per Ton Analysis Interest Cost Total Income Per Ton Analysis ACC Ltd. P/L PERFORMANCE Net Revenue from Operation Other Income Cement Sales Volume Cement Realization Cement Realization ACC Limited (ACC) is engaged in manufacture of cement & ready mixed concrete. The Company has grinding plants in Karnataka and clinkering line in Maharashtra. The Company’s subsidiaries include ACC Mineral Resources Limited, Lucky Minmat Limited, Bulk Cement Corporation (India) Limited, National Limestone Company Private Limited and Encore Cement and Additives Private Limited. The Company is subsidiary of Ambuja Cement India Private Limited. Cement prices witnessed an increase during Oct-Nov,13 but also witnessed a sharp fall during Dec,13 which has contributed towards lower average realizations for the year for the company.Further,with a strong balance sheet with zero debt and better dividend yield of 3%,we continue to remain positive despite near term challenges.We revise our estimates downwards to factor in lower demand growth scenario. At current price of Rs 1253, stock is trading at 2.8x P/B and 2.8x P/B on CY14 estimates.Valuation looks good for this company,but we would like to see the 1st quarter for earning upgrading hence we recommend Book Profit on the stock at a price range between 1253 to 1310. Company has made several capacity expansion plans in the region. ACC is replacing the existing facilities at Jamul, Chhattisgarh with a clinker plant with an annual production capacity of 2.8 MT and local grinding capacity of 1.1 MT of cement, while a new plant with annual capacity of 2.7 MT is scheduled to be built in Kharagpur. The capacity expansion plant will increase the company's total cement production capacity to 35 MT from the existing 30 MT.On a QoQ basis, the EBITDA/tonne improved 10.4% due to an improvement in realisations & comparatively lower increase in total expenditure/tonne, it shows a positive view for the further quarters.onsidering the expansion plans we expect 4% growth in sales volume and 10% growth in realization for CY14. Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  4. 4. CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 6281 6979 7372 7813 510 506 85 0 14 0 0 0 188 126 157 89 1581 816 661 642 1466 1051 1227 1081 11041 11921 11928 12101 77 48 39 40 5230 6359 5893 6040 1564 370 314 322 283 461 566 880 926 1113 1134 1122 249 266 303 397 1086 1660 681 506 162 279 325 340 11041 11921 11928 12101 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 3.2 3.1 3.6 2.7 57.4 68.7 73.8 57.6 3.0 2.6 2.7 3.6 19.1 8.0 5.8 5.7 19632 20180 26240 20296 18.7 16.5 19.4 19.2 12.7 10.5 11.9 12.5 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.7 14.6 15.2 16.3 12.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 Trading At : 4 Debt/Equity Current Ratio Dividend Yield% ROCE% Inventories Long-term loans and advances Capital work-in-progress Trade payables Long-term provisions Cash and bank balances ACC Ltd. Total equity Long-term borrowings Short-term borrowings B/S PERFORMANCE Trade receivables Source - Comapany/EastWind Research Short-term loans and advances RATIOS EV Creditors to Turnover% P/E EV/EBIDTA P/B EPS Debtor to Turnover% Total Assets Short-term provisions Total liabilities Intangibles Tangible assets Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  5. 5. 1214 1287 1094 6 18 1M 1yr YTD Absolute 23.7 7.4 7.4 Rel.to Nifty 15.3 -2.0 -2.0 Current 4QFY13 3QFY1 3Promoters 66.7 64.1 64.1 FII 11.0 13.2 13.6 DII 15.4 15.3 15.6 Others 6.9 7.4 6.7 Financials Rs, Cr 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E NII 10739 10734 13866 17734 21111 Total Income 42252 18237 22212 27035 30413 PPP 10950 10386 13199 16762 18856 Net Profit 6093 6465 8325 10658 11955 EPS 52.9 56.0 72.2 92.3 103.6 5 Strong operating performance led by healthy balance sheet growth ICICI Bank reported revenue growth of 23.5% YoY led by strong operating performance and healthy non interest income. Strong growth in NII was led by margin expansion on year on year basis which further led by strong growth in loan and higher deposits base. Bank’s loan grew by 16% YoY supported by retail and oversea loan while deposits grew by 11%. Credit deposits for the quarter was 102% largely liquidity came from borrowing fund but strong base of CASA kept cost of fund under control. Operating cost increased by 15.7% YoY but CI ratio remained under control. Operating leverage increased sequentially due to higher expansion towards branch expansion. Overall it remained in the range of 0.40% to 0.45%. ICICI BANK Market Data Upside 758 BSE Code 532174 NSE Symbol ICICIBANK Company Update HOLD Target Price In our earlier note dated 31st Jan.2014 in which we have given the price target of Rs.1094 lower side of valuation band. Now the stock reached to the level of Rs.1214 but still below of our upper side of valuation band. We value bank in the range of Rs. 836 to Rs.1287 depending upon the fundamental and return ratios. Since our result updated report, the stock has given the return of 24%, now we advice our investor to hold the stock as bank has potential to reached at upper side of valuation band. CMP Previous Target Price Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. (Source: Company/Eastwind) Stock Performance 52wk Range H/L Average Daily Volume 140141 Asset quality continued to be concern, impairment asset were higher at QoQ, Management remained cautious on asset quality On asset quality front, bank saw some deterioration as impaired assets (GNPA + Restructure Asset) to loan increased from 5.3% to 5.7% sequentially. According to bank’s management it would remain at elevated level going forward. However bank has lower exposure towards corporate segment where slippage risk is relatively high in current scenario. Total loan in corporate debt restructure was to tune of 30 bn(0.9% of loan). However GNPA showed some strength sequentially and was improved slightly to 3.07% from 3.10% while net NPA stood at 0.94% versus 0.85% due to lower loan loss provision made. But provision coverage ratio remained at 70% level, so nothing to worry about. Change from Previous ICICI Bank Vs Nifty Share Holding Pattern-% 3.58 lakh Nifty "HOLD" 18th March 2014 Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  6. 6. 6 ICICI BANK Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Margin expansion led by stable NIM and healthy loan growth ICICI bank NIM was stable at 3.32% sequentially led by stable NIM and retail loan. Bank’s CASA was strong at 43%+ on which current account growth of 13.2% and saving account growth of 17.5% ahead of private sector banks. Overall CASA reported 16% YoY growth and in percentage to total deposits, it stood at 42.9% at the end of 3QFY14. Bank’s loan grew by 16% YoY led by retail loan which grew by 22% YoY and share in retail loan increased from 35% to 37% at the end of December quarter. Loan growth from oversea branches was also supportive, registered growth of 24% YoY. Share of oversea loan composition was 28% at the end of quarter, an increase of 200 bps YoY. Growth of CASA trend Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  7. 7. 7 Non Interest Income ICICI Bank’s total income grew by 23.5% YoY was due to non interest income growth of 26.5% YoY in fee income registered growth of 12.8% YoY. Dividend and other income growth was higher at 85% owing to higher dividend income from life insurance subsidiary whereas treasury income grew by 78% YoY. Overall healthy growth in non interest income was due to bank saw reversal of M2M provisions on bond and equity portfolio. Composition of non interest income to total revenue Source: Company/Eastwind NIM was stable at sequnetial basis led by strong loan growth and CASA base ICICI BANK Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. ICICI Bank NIM remain healthy Healthy loan growth led by retail and oversea loan growth Narnolia Securities Ltd, Loan Composition (Rs Cr) 3QFY13 2QFY14 3QFY14 YoY Gr. QoQ Gr. Domestic Corporate 98074 103598 104779 6.8 1.1 Retails Business 100081 115039 122076 22.0 6.1 Overseas Branches 73699 84531 91474 24.1 8.2 SME 14912 14618 14303 -4.1 -2.2 % of loan Domestic Corporate 34.2 32.6 31.5 Retails Business 34.9 36.2 36.7 Overseas Branches 25.7 26.6 27.5 SME 5.2 4.6 4.3 Non Interest Income 3QFY13 2QFY14 3QFY14 YoY Gr. QoQ Gr. Core fee income 17.71 19.94 19.97 12.8 0.2 Dividend & Other Income 1.93 2.51 3.57 85.0 42.2 Treasury Income 2.51 -0.79 4.47 78.1 - Rs.Cr 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 NII 1991 2204 2312 2510 2411 2506 2712 3105 3193 3371 3499 3803 3820 4044 4256 OtherIncome 1681 1578 1749 1641 1643 1740 1892 2228 1880 2043 2215 2208 2484 2166 2801 TotalIncome 3672 3782 4061 4150 4054 4246 4604 5333 5073 5414 5714 6011 6305 6210 7057 %ofOtherIncometoNII 84.4 71.6 75.6 65.4 68.1 69.4 69.8 71.8 58.9 60.6 63.3 58.1 65.0 53.6 65.8
  8. 8. 8 Bank reported deterioration in asset quality (GNPA) in sequential basis by 3.7% in absoluter term. In percentage to gross advance, GNPA stood at 3.07% versus 3.1% in previous quarter (marginally improved). Sequentailly cost to income ratio remained satble. Management guided CI ratio would be below of 40% in FY14. Operating leverage remain ed stable but sequentially up led by higher operating expansion largely due to branch expansion cost Operating leverage increased sequentially but remained under control. The rise of operating leverage was due to increased expansion towards branch expansion. ICICI BANK Operating Expenses and Employee Cost Source: Company/Eastwind Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Total expenses increased by 15.7% YoY in which employee cost and other operating cost were increased by 6% and 23% YoY respectively. Cost to income ratio was remained flat at 37.1% sequentially while operating leverage (operating cost to total asset) increased slightly from 0.41% to 0.46% but remained under control. This was due to branch expansion. Asset quality remain under pressure Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  9. 9. 9 At the current price of Rs.1214, bank is trading at 1.8 times of FY14E book value. We value bank in the range of Rs.836 to Rs.1287 depending upon fundamental and return ratio. Our base case assumption was deposits growth of 12%, loan growth of 17% in FY14 and margin at current level. Improvement and deterioration from base and bull case would driven the price movement in either side. We advance our clients to hold the stock as bank has potential to reach upper side of value band. Valuation Band 1 Yr forward P/BV 1 Yr forward P/E ICICI BANK Source: Company/Eastwind Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Provisions were declined by 0.6% QoQ taking net NPA increased by 15.3% QoQ. In percentage to net advance, this ratio stood at 0.94% versus 0.85% in previous quarter. Lower provisions made PCR to 70.1% versus 73.1% in previous quarter. Bank’s impair asset (GNPA+ Restructure asset) were 5.7% of advance at the end of quarter from 5.3% in previous quarter and 5% in last quarter. Bank management guided asset quality stress would remain at elevated level. According to the company, corporate debt restructure pipeline presently is Rs.30 bn which is 0.9% of loan. Asset quality remained concern. Management expects it to remained elevated level going forward. Outstanding CDR at 0.9% of loan Valuation & View Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  10. 10. 10 ICICI BANK Financials & Assuption Source: Company/Eastwind Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Narnolia Securities Ltd, Quarterly Result 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Interest/discount on advances / bills 19098 22130 27341 31646 34992 Income on investments 9181 9684 11009 11785 13220 Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 469 491 543 184 184 Others 1334 1238 1182 946 946 Total Interest Income 30081 33543 40076 44561 49342 Others Income 31513 7503 8346 9302 9302 Total Income 61595 41045 48421 53863 58644 Interest on deposits 11315 14304 16889 18217 20402 Interest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 1683 1469 2087 0 0 Others 6345 7035 7234 10146 11364 Interest Expended 19343 22808 26209 27812 28840 NII 10739 10734 13866 16749 20502 Other Income 31513 7503 8346 9302 9302 Total Income 42252 18237 22212 26051 29804 Employee 4393 3515 3893 4451 5096 Other Expenses 26910 4335 5120 5441 6229 Operating Expenses 31302 7850 9013 9892 11325 PPP( Rs Cr) 10950 10386 13199 16159 18478 Provisions 4631 1583 1803 2592 2853 PBT 0 8803 11397 13567 15626 Tax 0 2338 3071 4071 4688 Net Profit 6093 6465 8325 9496 10938 Balance Sheet DEPOSITS 259106 255500 292,614 321,875 360,500 Deposits Growth 7.3 -1.4 14.5 10.0 12.0 Borrowings 125839 140165 145,341 158,535 177,560 Borrowings Growth(%) 8.8 11.4 3.7 9.1 12.0 Investment 209653 159560 171,394 187,360 209,843 Growth(%) 12.5 -23.9 7.4 9.3 12.0 Advances 256019 253728 290,249 339,592 380,343 Growth(%) 13.4 -0.9 14.4 17.0 12.0 Eastwind Calculation Yield on Advances 7.5 8.7 9.4 9.3 9.2 Yield on Investments 4.7 6.4 6.7 6.3 6.3 Cost of deposits 4.4 5.6 5.8 5.7 8.0 Cost of Borrowings 6.4 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.4 Cost of fund 5.0 5.8 6.0 0.0 5.9 Valuation Book Value 480 524 578 643 682 P/BV 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 P/E 5.5 7.3 9.4 9.2 10.6
  11. 11. AXIS BANK 1385 1340 1220 -3 10 1M 1yr YTD Absolute 25.2 -1.9 -1.9 Rel.to Nifty 17.9 -11.1 -11.1 Promoters 33.9 33.9 33.9 FII 43.2 43.4 40.7 DII 9.7 4.9 8.8 Others 13.2 17.8 16.6 Financials Rs, Cr 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E NII 6566 8026 9666 12224 14775 Total Income 11238 13513 16217 19146 21697 PPP 6377 7413 9303 11206 12367 Net Profit 3340 4224 5179 5826 6934 EPS 81.4 102.2 110.7 124.2 148.2 11 Company Updated BOOK PART PROFIT CMP In last one month, Axis Bank has outperformed Bank Nifty and CNX Nifty by 6% and 18% respectively and is now trading at more than 1.7 times of FY14E book value which is above of our upper side of valuation band. We value bank in the range of 1.5 to 1.7 times of book lower than its peers group largely due to some exposure in stress sector specially in infra and power companies where slippage risk are relatively high. We value bank in the range of Rs.1220 to Rs.1340 per share that implying book value multiple of 1.5 to 1.7 based on current fundamental and return ratios. The rise of stock price is supported by opinion poll result which suggests BJP led NDA would come in power. NDA prime ministry candidate Narendra Modi is perceived by foreign investor as a decisive and development making leader and would rescue economy.AXISBANK Market Data BSE Code Change from Previous Axis Bank Vs Nifty Share Holding Pattern-% 26.18 cr 532215 NSE Symbol Axis bank’s low cost deposits CASA has grown faster than peers like ICICI bank and is stable at 43% at the end of 3QFY14. Bank’s management expects it to reach at 46% in FY15E which would help to keep cost of deposits under control and hence margin expansion. In loan growth parameter, Axis bank expects loan growth higher than industry growth by 2%. Incremental loan growth would come from SME and retail sector while corporate loan book is expected to remain sluggish. Bank’s capital adequacy ratio is close to 17% in which tier -1 capital of 12.5% much healthier than peers indicating no need to raise money for long tenure in near term. ROA at pre provisioning profit is at 3% indicating strong capability to delivered profit once asset quality issue resolve. Stress loan (GNPA+ Restructure asset) is remained at 3.7% of advances but it might go up as bank has significant exposure in power (5.54%) and Infrastructure (7.33%) where slippage risk is relatively high in present economy scenario. Provision coverage ratio reported by bank is 78% with technical write off which would provides some cushion on earnings. Axis bank still have 46% of loan exposure in large corporate where profitability uncertain due to ongoing recession. Therefore on asset quality front, bank would still have to face tough time as per our view. We believe market sentiment in recent days are boosted up on the hope that BJP led NDA would come to power after the general election and revive economy. The domestic equity market is supported by opinion poll result which suggests BJP led NDA coming to power after the forthcoming election. Over the last few months, the estimated numbers of seat, the NDA may win has increased from 165-175 to 220- 230 seats. The prime ministerial candidate of NPA Narendra Modi is known for his development in Gujarat. Domestic as well as foreign investors are in hope that Indian economy would come at track and business opportunity would start again. Banking stocks are rallied more than other sectors in hoping of reducing fresh NPA creation. 64823 Domestic equity market boost-up by economy revival sentiment Key positive trigger Key negative trigger (Source: Company/Eastwind) Stock Performance Average Daily Volume Target Price Previous Target Price Upside Nifty 6493 Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) "BOOK PART PROFIT " 14th March, 2014 Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  12. 12. 12 Quarterly Result AXIS BANK Source: Eastwind/Company Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Narnolia Securities Ltd, QuarterlyResult 3QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY13 %YoYGr %QoQGr 3QFY14E Variation Interest/discountonadvances/bills 5557 5394 4907 13.3 3.0 5748 3.4 Incomeoninvestments 2110 2143 2014 4.8 -1.5 2235 5.9 InterestonbalanceswithReserveBankofIndia 49 35 25 97.7 39.4 35 -29.2 Others 73 37 19 277.1 95.6 38 -47.4 TotalInterestIncome 7789 7609 6965 11.8 2.4 8056 3.4 OthersIncome 1644 1766 1615 1.8 -6.9 1774 7.9 TotalIncome 4628 4703 4110 12.6 -1.6 4780 3.3 InterestExpended 4805 4672 4470 7.5 2.8 5049 5.1 NII 2984 2937 2495 19.6 1.6 3006 0.8 OtherIncome 1644 1766 1615 1.8 -6.9 1774 7.9 TotalIncome 4628 4703 4110 12.6 -1.6 4780 3.3 Employee 655 644 615 6.5 1.7 0 OtherExpenses 1358 1309 1134 19.8 3.8 0 OperatingExpenses 2013 1953 1749 15.1 3.1 2008 -0.3 PPP(RsCr) 2615 2750 2362 10.7 -4.9 2772 6.0 Provisions 202 687 387 -47.7 -70.5 752 271.4 PBT 2413 2062 1975 22.2 17.0 2020 -16.3 Tax 808 700 628 28.8 15.5 687 -15.0 NetProfit 1604 1362 1347 19.1 17.7 1333 -16.9 BalanceSheetDate NetWorth 37649 36224 27027 39.3 3.9 37558 -0.2 Deposits 262398 255365 244501 7.3 2.8 272935 4.0 Loan 211467 201303 179504 17.8 5.0 214892 1.6 Assetqualtiy(RsCr) GNPA 3008 2734 2275 32.2 10.0 - NPA 1003 838 679 47.8 19.7 - %GNPA 1.4 1.4 1.3 - %NPA 0.5 0.4 0.4 -
  13. 13. 13 AXIS BANK FINANCIALS & ASSUPTION Source: Eastwind/Company Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Narnolia Securities Ltd, Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Interest Income 15155 21995 27183 31198 38490 Interest Expense 8589 13969 17516 18974 23716 NII 6566 8026 9666 12224 14775 Change (%) 31.2 22.2 20.4 26.5 20.9 Non Interest Income 4671 5487 6551 6922 6922 Total Income 11238 13513 16217 19146 21697 Change (%) 25.3 20.2 20.0 18.1 13.3 Operating Expenses 4860 6100 6914 7940 9330 Pre Provision Profits 6377 7413 9303 11206 12367 Change (%) 22.4 16.2 25.5 20.5 10.4 Provisions 3033 3189 4124 2402 2461 PBT 3345 4224 5179 8804 9906 PAT 3340 4224 5179 5826 6934 Change (%) 34.8 26.5 22.6 12.5 19.0 Balance Sheet Deposits( Rs Cr) 189166 219988 252614 290506 334081 Change (%) 34 16 15 15 15 of which CASA Dep 77758 91412 112100 124917 143655 Change (%) 18 18 23 11 15 Borrowings( Rs Cr) 26268 34072 43951 51266 58956 Investments( Rs Cr) 71788 92921 113738 129873 149354 Loans( Rs Cr) 142408 169760 196966 228481 265037 Change (%) 36 19 16 16 16 Valuation Book Value 460 549 708 813 942 CMP 1404 1146 1304 1174 1174 P/BV 3.1 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.2
  14. 14. Infosys Reasons behind the weak outlooks: 1M 1yr YTD Absolute 4.5 30.4 53.1 Rel. to Nifty 0.8 21.6 49.4 Current 2QFY14 1QFY14 Promoters 15.94 15.94 16.04 FII 40.65 39.93 39.55 DII 15.35 16.16 18.28 Others 28.06 27.97 26.13 Financials 3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-% Revenue 13026 12965 0.47 10424 25.0 EBITDA 3258.9 2836.9 14.88 2677 21.7 PAT 2874.9 2406.9 19.44 2369 21.4 EBITDA Margin 25.0% 21.9% 310bps 25.7% (70bps) PAT Margin 22.1% 18.6% 350bps 22.7% (60bps) 14 1 year forward P/E Rs, Crore Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Stock Performance View and Valuation: Infosys seems to be on its way to rediscovering its past mojo with revenue momentum kicking, and the NRN invisible hand in play. Further announcement of strategic acquisitions, better utilization of cash balances, better deal win, consistent client traction and revenue momentum would help the company to bridge the gap with rivals such as TCS. At a CMP of Rs 3358, it trades at 16x FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a target price of target price of Rs 3760 (revised from 3910). Impact on Estimates: We expect that the recent developments of Infosys could adversely impact our sales guidance by 2-3% and earnings growth guidance by 3-4% for FY15E. We downgrade our revenue growth guidance from 16.5% to 13.7%. (3) Challenges with skill mis-matches: Infosys CEO anticipated order cancellation from some of its clients because of its skill mis-match issue. Infosys has also seen some challenges with skill mis-matches between client’s needs and what company could have provided; this has led to slowdown in ramp-ups. (1) Poor response from Retail and CPG verticals: In the retail segment (contributes 25% of sales) a sluggish sales over the last 2 months, severe winter, and aggressive discounts by retailers have led to lesser profitability. In addition, this has led to capping of additional spending in CY14. Some retail clients have specific issues leading to categorization of spends. We expect this is not specific for Infosys, it could be viral for the Industry growth. (2) Portfolio related concern in Manufacturing: Recently, Manufacturing segment (contributes 22% of sales) has adversely impacted by the reduced PC sales and capex spending in networking and this will have an impact on revenue growth in this segment. Revenue contribution from manufacturing segments stands larger than other peers. Share Holding Pattern-% 52wk Range H/L 3847/2190 Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Nifty 6493 192799 1240448Average Daily Volume "Recovery delayed, but not denied" CMP 3358 Target Price 3760 Company update BUY A gloomy outlook by Infosys; however, the best is yet to come. Addressing an Investor Con Call, Infosys management has expressed its cautious view on earnings outlook as well as clients spending for near term. They indicated that FY14E would be a year of lower earnings than NASSCOM guidance followed by FY13 and FY12. The company’s knee jerk has not associated with single factor; these are partly company specific and partly external factors. We expect, this adverse scenario would impact its earnings growth for next couple of quarters. BSE Code 500209 NSE Symbol INFY ■ The company might only be able to meet the lower end of its annual revenue growth guidance of 11.5-12% for FY14E, and they are expecting weakness in client spending throughout the current quarter (4QFY14E). ■ Slowdown in client sentiment in 4QFY14E could be remain continue in the next couple of the quarters of the next financial year. We expect that 1HFY15E could be a part of worrisome. Key facts from Investors Con Call Previous Target Price 3910 Upside 12% Change from Previous -4% Market Data "BUY" 14th March' 14 Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  15. 15. 15 Why the best is yet to come? Recent weak guidance given by Infosys management is not an episode of close out. The company is working on various strategies to rediscovering its past sparkle days with revenue momentum kicking. Already, company has initiated to work closely with clients and focused on building relationship for deal intake. To maintain margin stability and increase productivity, company is working efficiently on cost optimization initiative. However, the management indicated that early signs of sales effectiveness initiative would start showing from 1HFY15E. Infosys. Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. We believe that strong demand environment across the industry would offer Infosys breathing space to tide over reorganization-related challenges. Its strategies on sales effectiveness and cost optimization initiative could turn the growth story as before. Now, we are waiting for next earning outlook and guidance by management for FY15E. Financials (Source: Company/Eastwind) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Rs in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Sales, INR 22742 27501 33734 40352 50217.7 57222.3 Employee Cost 12085 14856 18340 22565 28373.0 32330.6 Other expenses 2792 3677 4671 6254 8034.8 9441.7 Total Expenses 14877 18533 23011 28819 36407.8 41772.3 EBITDA 7865 8968 10723 11533 13809.9 15450.0 Depreciation 905 854 928 1099 1367.7 1558.5 Other Income 982 1211 1904 2365 2566.1 2861.1 EBIT 7942 9325 11699 12799 15008.3 16752.7 Interest Cost 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 PBT 7942 9325 11699 12799 15008.3 16752.7 Tax 1681 2490 3367 3370 4202.3 4690.7 PAT 6261 6835 8332 9429 10806.0 12061.9 Growth-% Sales 4.8% 20.9% 22.7% 19.6% 24.4% 13.9% EBITDA 9.3% 14.0% 19.6% 7.6% 19.7% 11.9% PAT 4.6% 9.2% 21.9% 13.2% 14.6% 11.6% Margin -% EBITDA 34.6% 32.6% 31.8% 28.6% 27.5% 27.0% EBIT 34.9% 33.9% 34.7% 31.7% 29.9% 29.3% PAT 27.5% 24.9% 24.7% 23.4% 21.5% 21.1% Expenses on Sales-% Employee Cost 53.1% 54.0% 54.4% 55.9% 56.5% 56.5% Other expenses 12.3% 13.4% 13.8% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5% Tax rate 21.2% 26.7% 28.8% 26.3% 28.0% 28.0% Valuation CMP 2615.1 2765.1 2865.0 2400.0 3358.0 3358.0 No of Share 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 NW 23049.0 25976.0 31332.0 37994.0 45642.7 54345.7 EPS 109.1 119.0 145.1 164.2 188.2 210.1 BVPS 401.7 452.4 545.6 661.7 794.9 946.5 RoE-% 27.2% 26.3% 26.6% 24.8% 23.7% 22.2% Dividen Payout ratio 25.1% 45.9% 24.0% 45.1% 22.9% 20.6% P/BV 6.5 6.1 5.3 3.6 4.2 3.5 P/E 24.0 23.2 19.7 14.6 17.8 16.0
  16. 16. V- V-Guard Industries Ltd. Key Points : CMP 453 Target Price 525 Previous Target Price 475 Upside 14% 10% BSE Code 532953 NSE Symbol 1,349 59,460 Nifty 6,493 1M 1yr YTD Absolute (4.5) (9.0) 5.0 Rel. to Nifty (5.6) (13.6) (6.7) 3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14 Promoters 65.5 65.5 65.5 FII 18.5 17.4 14.5 DII 2.2 2.5 3.5 Others 13.8 14.5 16.4 About El Nino 16 1 yr Forward P/B V-GUARD Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Average Daily Volume Stock Performance-% Share Holding Pattern-% Forecast updates strengthen El Nino fears Company update Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) 52wk Range H/L 390/570 Market Data Change from Previous • In its update on Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said factors that lead to an El Nino were now increasingly visible. "The tropical Pacific Ocean subsurface has warmed substantially over the past few weeks • Indian Met officials are treating the reports with caution, saying that though chances of an El Nino developing around mid-2014 are growing, predictions made at this stage suffer from low accuracy. • US agency NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which updated its forecast on Wednesday, said temperature anomalies associated with El Nino had strongly increased since the end of January. Further, NOAA said there was a 50% chance of El Nino developing during the summer or autumn this year. (Source: Times of India/ Eastwind Research) El Nino — 'the boy' in Spanish — is an unusual warming of sea surface waters in eastern and central equatorial Pacific associated with changes in wind patterns that impact weather in many parts of the world. It generally has an adverse effect on the Indian monsoon. "Colling Gun……..." Buy • On recent interview management expect a sales growth of around 10% in 4QFY14 on back of strong sales growth of 12-12.5% in January and February month of 2014. • Last financial year for Q4 company had very low margins because of two reasons, higher ad spend and one-off items. From that level, we expect there would been improvement this quarter and margin would be somewhere around 8.51%. • Company expect the ad spends in the current quarter are likely to be Rs. 11-12 crore (2.85% of expected revenue in 4QFY14E), compared to 14 crore (3.7% of 4QFY13 revenue) which should in our view aid in the margin expansion in current quarter. • The El Niño visibility in 2014 would be the another factor for the revenue growth of companies like Vgaurd. As Vguard product portfolio consist of 65-70% summer facing in nature and we believe that the strong summer expectation in 2014 and low base of FY14 would lead a revenue growth of at least 18% in FY14E. "Buy" 4th Mar' 14 Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  17. 17. 17 Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Outlook / Valuation (Source: Company/ Eastwind Research) V-Guard Industries Ltd. Strong Balance Sheet •Total Debt has been reduced significantly as on 3Q FY14 to Rs. 117.7 crore, compared to Rs. 157 crore as on 3Q FY13. Working capital loan reduced to Rs. 77.1 vrore from 134.0 crore and whereas term loan icreased to Rs. 40.6 crore from 22.9 crore. • Working capital cycle on a TTM basis improves by 9 days to 76 days. Mainly Led by 15 days reduction in debtors. Management has also guided for improvement in net working capital cycle by 5- 10 days every year going forward. This will further improve its ROCE and ROE going forward. • Strong cash generation in 9M. FY14 Cash from operations at Rs. 90 crore in 9M FY14 as compared to Rs. 14.5 crore for full year FY13 EBITDA % and PAT % Q-o-Q • We expect margin to expand in 4QFY14E on back of lowered ad spends and non hoping of one- off items which hit the p/l in past year of same quarter. However we restrict our EBITDA expectation for FY14E to 8.9% against management guidance of 9-9.5% due to significant reduction in copper prices both in dollar terms as well as in rupee terms as company value its inventory on mark-to-market basis but apart from that there are no other issues we could see. • The El Niño visibility in 2014 would be the another factor for the revenue growth of companies like Vgaurd. As Vguard product portfolio consist of 65-70% summer facing in nature and we believe that the strong summer expectation in 2014 and low base of FY14 would lead a revenue growth of at least 18% in FY14E. • At the current CMP of Rs. 452, the stock is trading at a PE of 17.0x and 13.4x of FY14E and FY15E. The company can post RoE of 24.0% and 24.1% & EPS of Rs. 26.4 and Rs. 33.6 FY14E and FY15E. We believe that from current level the growth would pick pace expected acceleration of growth momentum, given the strong outlook of summer going forward. We revised our rating to “Buy” from “Hold” with a revised price target of Rs. 525. Revenue Q-o-Q (Source: Company/ Eastwind Research) Business segments, market size and existing competition in segment (Source: Company/ Eastwind Research) Narnolia Securities Ltd, Industry Size (crore) V-Guard (Share FY13) Production Model Key Players Stabilisers 2100 201 100% Outsourced Bluebird, Capri, Logicstat, Premium, everest PVC Cables 7000 289 100% In-House Havells, Finolex LT Power Cables 6000 64 100% In-House Havells, Finolex Motor Pumps 2000 152 90% Outsourced Crompton Greaves, Kirloskar, CRI, Texmo Water Heaters 800 72 90% Outsourced A.O.Smith,Racold,Bajaj,Venus,Crompton Fans 5000 57 90% Outsourced Crompton,Bajaj Electricals,Havells, Orient UPS 3500 42 100% Outsourced Numeric,APC,Emerson Digital UPS 5500 73 100% Outsourced Microtek, Luminous, Su-Kam Solar Water Heater 300 26 100% In-House Tata BP-Solar
  18. 18. 18 Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Key financials V-Guard Industries Ltd. (Source: Company/ Eastwind Research) Narnolia Securities Ltd, PARTICULAR 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E Performance Revenue 454 727 994 1360 1523 1752 Other Income 1 2 2 4 5 6 Total Income 456 728 996 1364 1528 1758 EBITDA 50 73 94 110 136 158 EBIT 43 65 84 99 119 141 DEPRICIATION 7 8 10 11 12 15 INTREST COST 5 11 17 20 21 15 PBT 40 55 69 82 102 132 TAX 14 16 18 19 27 33 Extra Oridiniary Items NA NA NA NA NA NA Reported PAT 25 39 51 63 79 100 Dividend (INR) 10 12 12 12 12 12 DPS 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 EPS 8.5 13.1 17.0 21.1 26.4 33.6 Yeild % EBITDA % 11.1% 10.1% 9.4% 8.1% 8.9% 9.0% NPM % 5.6% 5.4% 5.1% 4.6% 5.2% 5.7% Earning Yeild % 9.6% 7.8% 9.2% 4.8% 5.8% 7.4% Dividend Yeild % 4.0% 2.4% 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% ROE % 18.0% 22.7% 24.1% 24.1% 24.0% 24.1% ROCE% 13.8% 16.2% 21.2% 19.4% 22.1% 21.7% Position Net Worth 141 172 211 261 328 416 Total Debt 81 139 109 165 125 115 Capital Employed 222 311 320 427 453 531 No of Share (Adj) 3 3 3 3 3 3 CMP 89 168 186 435 452 452 Valuation Book Value 47.4 57.6 70.6 87.6 109.9 139.5 P/B 1.9 2.9 2.6 5.0 4.1 3.2 Int/Coverage 8.4 5.7 4.9 4.9 5.6 9.4 P/E 10.4 12.9 10.9 20.7 17.1 13.5
  19. 19. TATA STEEL Ltd. 336 401 440 19% -9% 500470 32710 22897 6493 1M 1yr YTD Absolute -9.3 -4.5 -3.0 Rel. to Nifty -16.4 -14.7 -14.2 3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14 Critical Debt Level Promoters 31.4 31.4 31.4 FII 16.1 13.6 13.2 DII 25.4 26.1 26.3 Others 27.2 29.0 29.2 Financials : Q3FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY14 Net Revenue 36736 14.4 0.2 32107 36645 Depriciation 1522 4.0 5.4 1463 1444 Interest Cost 1108 7.3 3.9 1032 1067 EBIDTA% 10.9 290bps 80bps 7.0 10.1 OPM% 6.8 430bps 70bps 2.4 6.1 NPM% 1.4 370bps (110bps) -2.3 2.5 (In Crs) 19 Source - Comapany/EastWind Research Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Odisha Project could provide further upside in long-term: The Company aims to make value added steel products at the new facility in Odisha (3mtpa) where the blended realizations could be potentially higher than existing products by 2015. We believe timely clearance for expansion of iron ore mine is critical for the plant. The company's Odisha plant is highly automated and will require fewer employees/ton compared to its Jamshedpur facility. Share Holding Pattern-% NSE Symbol TATASTEEL On the back of a consistent operational improvement at the company’s European operations We are positive on the stock in long run .However, on the back of ongoing capacity expansion, the gross debt is expected to increase from 66074 crore (FY13) to 76919 crore (FY14E) and 77543 crore (FY15E). In our view, unlike Karnataka and Goa, Odisha is very critical for the Indian steel industry. We estimate Odisha iron ore production in FY13 stood at 62MT (accounting for ~45% of India’s production). 1 yr Forward P/B Average Daily Volume (Nos.) Stock Performance-% 52wk Range H/L 435/195 Nifty Tata Steel reported a good set of Q3FY14 numbers, and positively surprised by the EBITDA/tonne of Tata Steel Europe (TSE). The company reported a consolidated net income from operations of Rs. 36735.8 crore for the quarter, higher by 0.2% QoQ and 14.4% YoY.In Q3FY14, Tata Steel India’s Steel deliveries stood at 2.1 MT while TSE deliveries stood at 3.2 MT and South East Asia at 1.09MT. In Q3FY14, TSI reported EBITDA of Rs.2936 crore while TSE reported an EBITDA of Rs.860 crore. On a consolidated basis, consolidated steel sales stood at 6.4 MT. EBITDA/tonne of Indian operations came in at Rs. 14183/tonne while that of European operations came in at US$ 43/tonne Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Result Update BUY CMP Target Price Previous Target Price Upside BSE Code Change from Previous Tata Steel is a blue chip stock and is available at a very cheap valuation. With the European crisis behind us, US economy getting stronger and better outlook for Indian economy on the expectation of stable government at the Center, We feel Tata Steel may have price appreciation. valuing the financial performance We recommend Buy on the stock at a medium term target price of Rs.401. The consolidated EBITDA of Tata Steel came in at Rs. 4006.5 crore (EBITDA margin of 10.9%) , primarily on the back of operational efficiencies realized at its European division while the ensuing consolidated PAT came in at Rs. 503.2 crore. The company incurred capex to the tune of Rs.3900 crore in Q3FY14 and Rs.12300 crore in 9MFY14 wherein majority of capex has been incurred for Kalinganagar project. Market Data "BUY" 14th March' 14 Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  20. 20. Business Outlook TATA Steel India Rupee depreciation is helping to restore balance in the market Tata Steel Europe Recommendation 20 TATA STEEL Indian Turnover and Realization South East Asia Operation Construction sector outlook remains positive in the region, hence showing a positive signal for steel. Indian Turnover and Realization Indian Steel Deliveries Indian Turnover and Realization Indian Steel Deliveries Southeast Asia Steel Deliveries The ministry of coal deallocated two of TATA coal blocks at pachmo and Kotre Basantpur. Tata steel appealed in the high court for this concern and waiting for the hearing of high courts hearing on 26th march. Sentiment has improved; though sectors like construction and auto continue to be under pressure. Liquid steel production improved further 1% QoQ to 3.91m tons. Sales volumes however declined 8% QoQ (+5.6% YoY) to 3.19m tons due to seasonal factors leading to increase in inventories by 300kt to 2.6m tons. Operating leverage helping EBIDTA margin to improve.(EBIDTA /ton increased 72% to Rs.273.) EU steel demand expected to show signs of gradual recovery in Q4 (+3.3%) from a low base and could translate into a recovery in end user sectors in 2014. TSE will ramp up production from currently operating facilities. TSE expects to liquidate inventories in 4QFY14 leading to sales volumes surpassing production. Southeast Asia Turnover and Realization The political uncertainty still continues in Thailand with no clear solution at sight. However, the business is focusing on customer relationships and service levels to drive performance. Europian Steel Deliveries Europe Turnover and Realization At current market capitalization of Rs. 23444 Crores, the stock is trading at a forward P/B of just 0.9. Tata Steel is a blue chip stock and is available at a very cheap valuation. But if we look at its historical stock performance, in the past three years it had continued to trade between 0.6 to 1.9 P/B range. After bottoming out in August 2013 at a stock price of just under Rs. 200, Tata Steel stock have more than doubled in the past few months. Since January 2014, the stock had corrected slightly but still it is available at a low P/B (very much closer to the lower end of its P/B range). With the European crisis behind us, US economy getting stronger and better outlook for Indian economy on the expectation of stable government at the Center, We feel Tata Steel share price may have some more price appreciation left given the improvement in financial performance and Outlook. We recommend Buy on the stock at a medium term target price of Rs.401. Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  21. 21. Global Up & Downs 21 TATA STEEL One year Stock Performance One year LME Steel Price Financials China's industrial output rose 8.6% in the first two months of 2014 from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, missing market expectations for a 9.5% rise. Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  22. 22. V- Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd. Key Points : CMP 76 Target Price 105 NA Upside 38% 0% BSE Code 531431 NSE Symbol 116 13,645 Nifty 6,518 1M 1yr YTD Absolute 1.5 44.2 72.4 Rel. to Nifty (6.0) 31.5 57.8 3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14 Promoters 45.0 44.9 44.9 FII 0.0 0.0 0.0 DII 9.9 10.5 10.5 Others 45.2 44.7 44.7 22 Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Change from Previous Previous Target Price 1 yr Forward P/B Share Holding Pattern-% Stock Performance-% Market Data Average Daily Volume Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) Company Profile Shakti is a manufacturer of stainless steel submersible pumps and motors ranging from 0.5 HP to 255 HP used in domestic, industrial, irrigation, and fire-fighting and located at Pithampur Madhya Pradesh. Company is the first five star rated pump manufacturer in India. In addition to submersible pumps ,company also producing Vertical Multistage Centrifugal pumps, Pressure booster pumps, Open well pumps, End suction pumps. The company is mainly focused on the export market and sup-plies its products to around 50 countries, such as US, UK, Turkey, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, Australia, Sri Lanka, etc. Nearly 58 per cent of its revenues are from exports. Of the balance 42 per cent of domestic revenues, 60 per cent come from supply to farmers, 20 per cent from domestic demand, 12 per cent from government institutions, and the balance 8 per cent from various industrial sectors. Industry Structure and Development The Indian pump industry is estimated to be Rs. 8000 crores in 2012-13. It is likely to grow at 8% and expected to reach Rs. 18000 crores by 2017-18. The market demand is driven by infrastructure based spending, urbanisation, growth in manufacturing activity, refurbishment & upgradation and overall increase in the population, insufficient rains and falling water tables have led to demand for improvement in hydraulics and pump efficiency. The rising cost of oil has positively influenced the demand for energy conservative pumps and pumps driven by renewable energy sources. There will be strong demand for pumps from developing countries like China and India due to industrialisation and investment in water and power segments. The developed nations propose to repair and upgrade their old water infrastructure. This will lead to good replacement demand for pumps in developed countries. "Turnarround Counter………..." Buy 38/88 Company update SHAKTIPUMP • The company was the first to get 5 star rating for energy efficiency for its products from BEE. In addition to submersible pumps, company also producing Vertical Multistage Centrifugal pumps, Pressure booster pumps, Open well pumps, End suction pumps etc. Recently company introduced pumps working with solar power. • In next three years company incline to achieve sale revenue of Rs. 600 crore with the net margin of 9-10%. • Company is planning to increase the Branch Network to 30 and Dealer network to 3 fold in coming few year. Further, Company have plans to register our presence in all BRICS, G20 and European Union and in other growing countries in coming years. • On valuation front shakti pump is available at a single digit PE and EV/EBIDTA of 5.6x/4.1x and 4.7x/3.8x of its FY14E/15E estimates. In a volatile market, a company available at single digit valuations certainly looks up for grabs. • Pledging of shares by promoters is the only reason for some concern.But ,since its financial performance is improving quarter over quarter ,I don’t expect much issues from this angle.Moreover pledge is not with any NBFC but with one of its bankers - Axis Bank. 52wk Range H/L "Buy" 13th Mar' 14 Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  23. 23. 23 Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Revenue Q-Q (In Crores) (Source: Eastwind Research) (Source: Eastwind Research) Operating Profit Q-Q (In Crores) To drive its domestic growth, Shakti has already strength-ened its marketing team and domestic dealer network to 650 from 192 just two years back. Though this renewed focus should help generate revenues for Shakti, the new product portfolio isn’t a unique one and is already manufactured across the country. Thus Shakti seems to be a late entrant in these products and therefore one will have to wait and watch the kind of growth it posts in these segments. Besides, there is a huge unorganised market on the domestic front which firstly eats into the market share (according to the management, Shakti’s market share is 3 per cent in the overall pump industry i.e. includ-ing the unorganised market) and sec-ondly, it reduces the pricing power of the organised players, thus impacting realisations and margins. However, Most Governments are insisting on the use of Star-rated pumps wherever it is subsidising their purchase on account of higher energy efficiency. With labour getting scare and expensive, there is a greater preference among agriculturist to work with branded models that promise a higher uptime, circumventing the need to invest in submersible pump extraction, repair or replacement. The result is that the market share of the country’s unorganised sector has steadily declined from 95% to 80%; the performance of the organised sector growth over the unorganised provides the industry optimism. Valuation : Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd. Reasons of laggard performance : At current price of Rs. 75, the stock is trading at P/E of 5.5 x for FY14E and 5.0 x the FY15E. Escorts could post EPS of Rs. 13.6 for FY14E and Rs. 18.7 for FY15E. Considering management’s aggressive expansion in production capacity and marketing network, I believe company can deliver good growth in coming years. Further, we expect the company to benefit immensely from the subdued steel prices currently. We expect the benefit to flow in for the next coming quarters as well. We recommend a "Buyrating on stock with price target of Rs. 105 Having said that, there are reasons we believe this scrip may not perform as per the expectations on the bourses. First and foremost, one should note that Shakti is in a business domain that has low entry barriers and the products can be easily manufactured. Currently, Shakti manufactures only steel sub-mersible pumps and though it posi- tions itself as an energy-efficient pump manufacturer, there are other players too who manufacture such energy-effi-cient pumps. However, the company is increas-ing its product line by adding boost-er pumps, mono-block, and open well pumps to its portfolio. “Shakti is installing a new 65,000 unit per annum capacity for booster pumps at a cost of Rs 35 crore, which is being funded through a combination of debt (Rs 25 crore) and internal accruals (Rs 10 crore). This expansion is expected to come on stream and start generat-ing revenues in coming periods Outlook : It is one of the fastest growing companies from this sector .From Rs.41 Cr sales in 2006 it reached a top line of Rs.210 Cr in 2013. Its export thrust and improvement in India’s rural economy is expected to drive further growth .Company is targeting a turnover of Rs.600 Cr in next three years. Narnolia Securities Ltd,
  24. 24. 24 (Source: Eastwind Research) (Figures in crore) Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report. Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd. Key financials : Narnolia Securities Ltd, PARTICULAR 2011A 9M 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Performance Revenue 135 192 209 270 338 422 Other Income 1 1 7 7 7 7 Total Income 136 193 215 277 344 429 EBITDA 25 31 30 41 51 63 EBIT 22 27 25 34 43 55 DEPRICIATION 3 4 5 7 7 8 INTREST COST 6 9 12 14 14 15 PBT 17 18 20 26 36 47 TAX 3 4 3 6 8 10 Reported PAT 13 14 17 21 28 37 Dividend 2 2 2 2 2 2 EPS 10.8 9.1 11.0 13.6 18.7 24.1 DPS 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 Yeild % EBITDA % 18.4% 16.0% 14.4% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% NPM % 9.9% 7.2% 7.8% 7.5% 8.3% 8.6% Earning Yeild % 20.6% 19.5% 25.5% 18.0% 24.6% 31.8% Dividend Yeild % 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% ROE % 20.5% 15.9% 15.5% 16.3% 18.5% 19.5% ROCE% 9.2% 8.2% 8.8% 10.0% 12.2% 13.7% Position Net Worth 65 87 109 128 154 189 Total Debt 81 83 82 80 80 80 Capital Employed 147 170 191 208 234 269 No of Share 1 2 2 2 2 2 CMP 52 47 43 76 76 76 Valuation Book Value 52.6 57.3 71.3 83.7 101.1 123.9 P/B 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 Int/Coverage 3.6 2.9 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.6 P/E 4.9 5.1 3.9 5.6 4.1 3.1
  25. 25. Narnolia Securities Ltd 402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph 033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000 email: research@narnolia.com, website : www.narnolia.com Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly available information, findings of our research wing “East wind” & information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations, should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned in this report/message.

×