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    Trm for mtec Trm for mtec Presentation Transcript

    • Technology Roadmapping (TRM) Special Course Dr. Nares Damrongchai APEC Center for Technology Foresight ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 1
    • Technology ForesightNares DamrongchaiAPEC Center for Technology Foresight
    • ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 3
    • Scenarios RoadmappingSTEEP ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 4
    • Trends & Drivers V Products & Services I S I Technology O Supporting Systems N (resources) Source of picture: http://www.pianetabimbi.it/Present ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai Future 5
    • “Roadmapping coal’s future – zero emissions technologies for fossil fuels”, InternationalEnergy Agency Working Party on Fossil Fuels / Coal Industry Advisory Board / Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2005, pg. 20. ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 6
    • “Hitachi disk drive roadmaps”, Grochowski, E., Hitachi San Jose Research Centre, 2003. ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 7
    • Communication Roadmap Example: Display technology ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 8 www.modilis.com/roadmap.htm
    • ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 9
    • • Roadmapping is particularly valuable in novel situations in which experience is lacking. Part of the fundamental value of roadmapping is that it can serve (at least in part) as a substitute for experience. ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 11
    • Purpose of Roadmapping“The fundamental purpose of the TechnologyReviews and the Technology Roadmaps is toassure that we put in motion today what isnecessary in order to have the right technology,processes, components, and experience in place tomeet the future needs for products and services.” -- Bob Galvin Past Chairman of the Board of Motorola “Father of Roadmapping” ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 12
    • Motorola Roadmap Matrix - summary of product plans and technology forecast Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processorsSubcarrier function Stereo Paging Data Maps IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibreDigital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION PRODUCTS Plus: A NEW SERVICE Stereo Plus: Plus: Stock market Scan PersonalRoad information Super Hi Fi paging Remote Seek amplifiers Local maps ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai controls Remote 13 Source: Willyard & McClees, 1987
    • Synchronization of the R&D Timing Technology 1 Technology 2R&D item 1 (3y) R&D item 4 (2y) Technology 3 R&D item 3 (4y) R&D item 2 (6y) time Evaluation criteria: orderDr. Nares Damrongchai on importance, ©2011 of priority based 14 emergency, risk, difficulty of R&D etc. Souce: Kohtsuki (2008)
    • Practical issues in roadmap design Solve ownership issue Purpose of use From Theme to Title Scope Time horizon Role of core team and stakeholders Project management point of view  Budget  (Human) Resource  Risk  Reporting ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 15
    • Technology roadmapping Relationship to the strategic planning process Where are the Market Information boundaries of the roadmapping process? Product-Market analysis Product-Technology Roadmap Defined Project Options Evaluation Creation Targets Proposals Technology Assessment Identification of TechnologyAvailable / Feasible / Possible Source: EIRMA, 1997 ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 16
    • Roadmapping design: an iterative collaborative process Focus (Theme), Scope,Business need Aims Plan Domain knowledge dialogue Business TRM process owner owner Architecture Process ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 17 Source: T-Plan, University of Cambridge
    • Case study 1 Industrial coding equipment• Background to organisation and the need for roadmapping• Starting and continuing the roadmapping process• Lessons learned Source: Dr Rick Mitchell, Technical Director ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 18
    • Ink jet coding equipment ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 19
    • Laser coding equipment ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 20
    • ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 21
    • ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 22
    • ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 23
    • Organisation Structure Holding CompanyBusiness Corporate Sales Manufacturing Units Functions Channels Operations ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 24
    • Business Units• Product Identification• Commercial Printing• Laser Coding and Marking• Outer Case Coding ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 25
    • The need for a strategic planning process• Business Planning System in place (1,3,10 years)• Lacked clarity on the product need to achieve the strategies - Commercial groups unclear what they could rely on - Technical groups unclear what would be required• All aware that effective innovation needs time…..• How to manage the dialogue? ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 26
    • The innovation trap• Time to Market is key• Minimum time between Requirement Specification and Product Launch• Innovation is inherently risky• Risk means DELAY• Or incredible luck….• So: No Innovation in a Development project ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 27
    • Why roadmapping?• Emphasis on the Product suited the company (“Everyone in organisation talks about Products”)• Links Commercial and Technical plans in a simple visual way• Provides prioritisation (and justification) for projects• Clarifies what products can be offered at what times• Above all: A Communication Tool ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 28
    • Roadmapping history (to 2002) Need for better Product/Technology input “Seek Advice” Collaboration with University of CambridgeStart-up PI Start-up Laser Start-up process Outer Case Coding CP wait until ready PI Start- process Roadmap Roadmap Draft Roadmap Marketup Research Revision 1 Roadmap 1 Revision 2 Has continued to evolve Roadmap 2 Revision 3 Revision 4 ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 29
    • Lasers roadmap Revision 21998 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 DEVELOPMENT Peripheral 1 Product 1 Product 2a Product 2b Product 2c Product 3 Product 4a Product 4b Product 5a Product 5b Product 5c Product 5d Product 5e RESEARCH Research 1 a b c Research 1 Research 2 Research 3 Research 4 Research 5 Research 6 Research 7 Research 8 Research 9 Jun-00 ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 30
    • Review the roadmap regularly• Because….• The world and our understanding change• The act of reviewing : - Reminds us where we are going - Brings new colleagues in - Deepens commitment - Deepens understanding - May make us change our view…. ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 31
    • Case study 2 Korea National Technology Roadmap• Visions and National Agenda• Porfolio Analysis of Visions• The Roadmap Source: STEPI ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 32
    • Visions for Korea’s National Technology Roadmap 1 Building an Information- Knowledge-Intelligence Society2 Aiming at Bio- 5 Improving National Healthopia Safety Prestige Visions for Science and Technology in 20123 4 Advancing the Upgrading the Value of Environment/Energy Major Industries of Korea Frontier Today Source: National Technology Roadmap (NTRM) Outline, KISTEP (2002)
    • Example: Portfolio Analysis of Visions Advanced Precision Machining System New Functional Information Materials/Devices (2010, $ 270 billion) (2010, $ 300 billion) Very High Highly Functional Metals/ Ceramics/Polymers/Textile (2010, $ 800 billion) Next Generation Manufacturing System (2010, $ 200 billion) User-friendly Advanced Construction (2011, market-scale $ 40,00 billion, saved $110,000 billion) Nanomaterials (2010, $ 200 billion) New Automotive System High (2011, 75 million cars) New Ocean Transportation System (2000, domestic $ 5,000 billion) Economical Effect Integrated Transporting System (market-size $ 100,000 billion before 2011, increasing by $20,000 per year, saved $ 80,000 billion per year) Medium New Railway System (Korean Type) (2010, $ 5,000 billion)Possibility ofSuccess Sustainable natural resource and effective development of :High natural land (2011, market-scale $ 4,000 billion, saved $2,000 billion) Low :Medium Very Low :Low Very Low Low Medium High Very High Strategic Importance
    • Example: The Technology Roadmap Vision IV Upgrading the Value of Major Strategic Products and Functions: Economical Industries of Korea Today Next Generation Manufacturing System Effects Direction of Development: Next Generation Manufacturing and Mechatronics Strategic Importance •Diversification of demands – customization mass production age Assessment •An aging society, the lack of technological/technical man power -> intellectual production age Importance •The protection of the earth environment, environmental restriction -> clean production age of future •The development and growth of the key industry through the attainment of high efficiency and high value High low Integrated CAX solution Clean based intellectual and virtual process/factory/company Knowledge based facility Knowledge acquiring inspection facility Products and Intellectually autonomous industrial robots/industrial facility Functions AI (Artificial Intelligence) control system Integrated automatic storage/distribution Self-maintaining production system Eco production systemR&D strategy Energy reduction type of facilities Ecology fused reproduction system basic research 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 applied research Intelligent Self-learning tech. manufacturing Self-healing tech. intn’l collaboration Key technologies and clean Self-organizing tech. outsourcing manufacturing Integrated product information system tech. system and ultra precision Optimization modeling/ simulation tech. machining knowledge tech. system knowledge tech. technology AI tech. Eco-design tech. Eco-product tech. Remanufacturing. Supporting Nano technological Technologies Energy IT Limitation in the level of AI Tech. •Limitation in the level of AI (Artificial Intelligence) technology •Level and time in the utilization of the technology for computer, auto-recognition, Change reasoning and decision Factor •Environmental restriction, trade restriction and uncertainty in the earth environmental change
    • Case study 3UK Foresight Vehicle Technology Roadmap• Key Themes• Architecture and Process of the Roadmap• The Roadmap Source: Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 36
    • http://www.foresightvehicle.org.uk/
    • Road transport system: key themes Social Social, economic and environmental drivers reflect the three cornerstones ofEconomic Environmental sustainable development Technology, policy and infrastructurePolitical Infrastructural enable or constrain progress towards the social, economic and environmental goals Technological
    • Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: architecture +5 years +10 years +15 years +20 years Now Vision Market / S Time T Industry Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties E E P drivers IPerformance T S E Evolution of required and desirable functional measures EP performance of road transport systems of the future and targets I Technical Required and desired technological response, Group areas including research requirements
    • Foresight Vehicle TRM: process Engine and powertrain (E&PT) Hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicles (HEV) Market Road and transportPlanning industry system Advanced software, sensors, Reporting Consultation electronics and telematics (ASSET) Synthesis(Oct „01) trends performance (Sept „02) and measures drivers and targets Advanced structures and materials (FASMAT) Design and manufacturing Processes (DMaP) Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information • 10 month duration • More than 130 participants • 10 workshops • More than 60 organisations
    • Example detailed roadmap content (1 of 28): Social trends & drivers 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Vision 80-85% of journeys Growth in personal mobility (70% of Individual 2010: Passenger 2015: 150% 2031: 57% increase in Cheap, by car 39,40,103 drivers use car for leisure day trips every „time budget‟ numbers through UK increase in UK road traffic, safe, week or month; 50% expect to be making for travel airports increase by international air compared to 1996 80,103 reliable, 75% of all journeys more by 2020) 42 remains 50% 30 traffic; 100% clean are under 5 miles constant ? increase in 2031: 40% increase convenient, and 45% are less Journey times increasing (70% longer domestic, comfortable than 2 miles 31 2010: 20-50% increase 2012: Bicycle in bus / coach by 2016 in peak travel periods) 67 journeys compared to vehicle miles, transport in European road double 31 1995 1 compared to 1996 1 for all Increasing passenger and Nearly one third of Vehicles sold increasingly as complexity of haulage traffic 13,80 UK households do „lifestyle‟ choices ? not have a car (13 lives ? Frustration with congestion and public 2022: 70% million people) 31 transport continues ? increase in journey Increasing female vehicle purchase / 2010: 10% increase (journey time no longer predictable) times in many UK Many different ownership (women are more likely to in bus passenger describe their cars as „stylish‟, „sporty‟ or Trend towards cities 1996 80 stakeholder groups, journeys 30 „fun‟) 42 career with different needs Balance between „downsizing‟ for New working / 2030: population from transport Legal issues and People and jobs global, national improved 2010: 50% living patterns in the UK is system frameworks ? have moved out of and local lifestyle ? increase in rail forecast to the city and town solutions ? passenger miles 30 Social increase by 3.3%, UK car-centric centres 103 Shift from car ownership to 61 million attitudes culture Increasing to car access ? 1,39,40,67, after towards road Increasing proportion of women in leisure time 39,40 which it will transport and 1999: UK „leads‟ paid employment (9.9 million in decline to 57 the world in vehicle 1984 to 12.2 million in 1999) 73 Increased million by 2050 73 Increasing 2010: 25% of UK environment? theft (twice global use of car 2015: 400 million average at 2.5%); More than half of drivers exceed speed mobile workforce pools ? people live in cost of vehicle- limits on motorways, dual carriageways working teleworking at megacities of more 2030: 22- 27% of related crime and residential roads 66 least two days per than 10 million UK population £6bn 46,47 week 57 inhabitants 57 More residential traffic calming schemes over retirement and pedestrianisation of town centres age, compared to 2000: 19% in 1998; 3,500 road traffic 2016: 4 million (25%) Demand to Shift in social Younger pension costs rise deaths and 40,000 increase in housing (80% reduce deaths attitudes to generation more from 4.5-5.5% of serious injuries in single-person), increasing Between 8 and and injuries on speeding IT-literate GDP 1,25,39,40 UK, at an estimated demand for travel 1,67 20% of car- roads cost of £13.3bn owning (40,000 deaths and households 2007: working at home becoming Continued 2016: 25% increase in number 2021: Households 1.7 million injuries in experience common (currently more than 66% of growth of of UK households, 80% of in South-east EU, representing a vehicle-related European organisations with more cities and growth due to single person forecast to grow by cost of 2% of GDP) Increasing 8,37,39,40 crime each year, than 500 employees already practice towns, mainly households; 1.3% rural land 19% on 2001 levels concern about teleworking) 28,39,40 41 depending on in South East use predicted to change to crime, security region 41 urban land use 39,40 and safety Mobility & congestion Health, safety & securityKey: Lifestyle & attitudes Demographics
    • Example summary roadmap content: Social performance measures & targets002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Aim for 2005: 70% user 2010: 80% user 2020: 85% „equitable‟ satisfaction with satisfaction with user mobility all transport all transport satisfaction Vehicle (same modes (measure modes with all adaptability price for of „convenience‟) transport same modes journey Urban people for all 2010: Vehicle security (resistance to attack) 5 transport Society groups in - Door locks: 5 minutes; Secure storage area in vehicle: 5 society) minutes - Alarm systems: 5 minutes; Immobilisers: 20 minutes; Window Effective glass: 2 minutes selling and customer 2005: Road traffic 2010: Road traffic 2020: Road traffic noise reduced noise reduced by noise reduced by by 6dBA; support 3dBA from 1998 4dBA Homologated noise reduction of levels 4dBA and 8dBA for light and heavy vehicles, respectively
    • Update: Foresight Vehicle TRM - Round 2• „Ownership‟ of Foresight Vehicle has shifted to Industry (SMMT)• Roadmap has become a central „reference point‟ for consortium• Aims for Round 2: - Development of efficient low maintenance repeatable process - Increased (industrial) focus & prioritisation• 6 half day workshops• Version 2 of the Roadmap was published in October 2004
    • Case study 4 NANOTEC Roadmap• Analysis of resource• Analysis of global trend and future demand• Research agenda Source: APEC Center for Technology Foresight, NANOTEC ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 44
    • National and Global R&D AgendaExisting and Future ResourceCompetitive Strength Nanotech Technology Roadmap CPMO Cluster Roadmaps (Platform Technology)Where we want to go?How will we go there?What resources are needed?What are the obstacles? NANOTEC Strategic Plan NANOTEC Annual Operation Plan Work Plan and Resource Allocation of NANOTEC Central Laboratory Network of COEs Extramural Funding 15 ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 45
    • Nanotech Technology Roadmap(platform technology) National and Global S&T Agenda (from various sources) Demand-Pull TARGETs (“Technology” targets and “Application” targets) Supply-Push Role of Nanotechnology in those targets Existing and Future Expertise and Resources Role of Thailand/NANOTEC Nanotechnology TRM 17 ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 46
    • Technology capability of NANOTEC staff PhD staff = 28 Researchers (each has more than one capability) 68 4 8
    • Functional Nanostructure EquipmentNo. of Equipment Techniques 72 4 9
    • Coating Platform (2) – Degree of Relevance ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 5076
    • Technology PlatformsCoreTechnology Characterization / TestingCoreKnowledgeTools Modeling / Simulation ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 108 51 Intelligence information, safety and Risk management
    • ‘First-cut’ roadmap• In groups of two, generate 2-3 post-it notes for each broad layer• Consider all layers & timeframes of roadmap … history, current plans, events, external actions, future possibilities, issues, vision• Round table, each group place a post-it on chart, and share with group (limit discussion to points of clarification)… 2 rounds• Generate as many additional post-it notes as possible and place on roadmap („parallel‟ activity) - fill „white space‟• Identify and discuss key strategic issues („arrow‟ post-it notes) ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 53
    • Points of ‘First-cut’ roadmap• Participatory• Quick “story”• Exploratory• Creative• Active „canvas‟• Capture, structure and share knowledge - know-why - know-what - know-how plans, forecasts, - know-when issues, links, - know-who challenges, - know-where questions, speculation ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 54
    • ‘First-cut’ roadmap (‘landscape’) ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 55
    • Process funnel (e.g. strategy, product development) Stage gatesRequirements fluidConcepts fuzzyMany unknowns Requirements clear, stable Time, effort, iteration Concepts clear, stableMany optionsMany assumptions Fewer unknowns, risks understoodFew constraints Fewer options, greater constraintsScenarios Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated ? ? ? ? Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors ? Subcarrier function Stereo Paging Data Maps IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS ? Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence ? ? Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre ? ? ? ? Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION ? ? ? ? ? PRODUCTS Plus: A NEW SERVICE Stereo Plus: Plus: Stock market Scan Personal Road information Super Hi Fi ? ? ? paging Remote Seek amplifiers Local maps Remote controlsDivergent process Convergent process ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 56 Source: University of Cambridge
    • Technology Roadmap for Bicycles (example) Now +2y +5y Time + 10 y Business Market (Ext.)Drivers (Int.)ProductTechnology Resources / Other ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 57
    • Business Drivers: Now +2y +5y Time + 10 y Business Market (Ext.) Trends: leisure, health, disposable income Competition Legislation: VAT off bikes; cycle paths, etc.Drivers New owner (Int.) Demonstrator New Range 2nd Generation - InvestmentProduct Market change and business change ・smaller population of consumer population ・variety of tastes ・digitization, tendency for networking ・change in systems e.g. taxTechnology ・globalization Resources / Other ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 58
    • Biko - Product evolution: Now +2y +5y Time + 10 y Business Market (Ext.) Trends: leisure, health, disposable income Competition Legislation: VAT off bikes; cycle paths, etc.Drivers New owner Demonstrator New Range 2nd Generation (Int.) - Investment “Design your own bike” Style Designer look Expand range On-line design “Super-bike”Product Comfort Ergonomic Moulded £500-1000 design seat Customised frame Technical Direct drive “Chip-on-bike” Automatic Product specificationsTechnology What functions are needed? Resources / Other ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 59
    • Biko - Technology needs: Now +2y +5y Time + 10 y Business Market (Ext.) Trends: leisure, health, disposable income Competition Legislation: VAT off bikes; cycle paths, etc.Drivers New owner Demonstrator New Range 2nd Generation (Int.) - Investment “Design your own bike” Style Designer look Expand range On-line design “Super-bike”Product Comfort Ergonomic Moulded £500-1000 design seat Customised frame Technical Direct drive “Chip-on-bike” Automatic” Internet Networked Networked mass customisation business factoryTechnology design Materials / Ergonomics mechanics CADCAM Visualisation Electronics Security Communications What technologies are Resources / Other needed to realize the product ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 60
    • Resource / other needs: Now +2y +5y Time + 10 y Business Market (Ext.) Trends: leisure, health, disposable income Competition Legislation: VAT off bikes; cycle paths, etc.Drivers New owner Demonstrator New Range 2nd Generation (Int.) - Investment “Design your own bike” Style Designer look Expand range On-line design “Super-bike”Product Comfort Ergonomic Moulded £500-1000 design seat Customised frame Technical Direct drive “Chip-on-bike” Automatic” Internet Networked Networked mass customisation business factoryTechnology design Materials / Ergonomics mechanics Usage of CADCAM management resource (existing Visualisation Electronics technologies, HR, funding) Security Communications Resources / Alliances: gear / drive; styling; electronics Other Skills Capital Branding & promotion Sportco ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 61
    • What to expect post-roadmapping Mutual understanding Synchronization with company strategy Better communication ... ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 62
    • Roadmapping challenges 50 45 40Response (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Starting up Developing a Roll-out of Keeping the Other the TRM robust TRM the TRM TRM process process process process alive on an ongoing basis Source: CTM survey, 1999 ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 63
    • How NANOTEC Platform TRM will be used  To communicate annual R&D agenda (priority areas of implementation), while being aware of the next agenda.  As guidance for key NANOTEC’s operations: R&D Funding and call for papers, Direction of in-house Central Laboratory, and COEs.  To manage Changes that are vital to survival and growth of NANOTEC. For example,  Direct resources/capability in the key areas, while limit resources in others  Recruit personnel in specific technical areas  Modify internal structure (e.g. phase out some labs and set up new ones)  Tie TRM cycle with NANOTECs operational cycle and update it constantly, esp. at Board meetings (← keep it alive!) This is a living technology roadmap Still a work-in-progress Need to be further refined 121 6 4