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การคาดการณ์อนาคตเทคโนโลยี
 

การคาดการณ์อนาคตเทคโนโลยี

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นำเสนอประเด็นสำคัญของการคาดการณ์อนาคตเทคโนโลยี ...

นำเสนอประเด็นสำคัญของการคาดการณ์อนาคตเทคโนโลยี ต่อที่ประชุมผู้บริหาร
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  • พูดถึงหยินหยาง แผน วทน.พูดถึง horizon ว่าติดตามต่อเนื่อง
  • ย้ำว่าเป็นศูนย์เดียวของเอเปคที่ตั้งมานาน อยู่ในประเทศไทย ได้รับเกียรติอย่างมากเอ่ยงาน EID, future fuel ก่อนจะถึง LCS หัวหอก
  • TNA agriculture
  • ขับเคลื่อนแผน ทำให้คนมาถกเถียงและเข้าใจบริบทของแผนแล้วลงไปเจาะในเรื่องที่สำคัญNational Academy of SciencesNational Academy of EngineeringInstitute of MedicineNational Research Council“Globalization has accidentally made Beijing, Bangalore and Bethesda next-door neighbors.”What are the top 10 actions, in priority order, that federal policymakers could take to enhance the science and technology enterprise so that the United States can successfully compete, prosper, and be secure in the global community of the 21st century? What strategy, with several concrete steps, could be used to imple-ment each of those actions?The original report informed the debate in Congress and within two presidential administrations, and, together with other reviews of America’s competitive position and innovation environment, led to the passage with strong bipartisan support of the America COMPETES Act of 2007 that has formed the basis for debating and structuring federal policy and budgets, and prompted a great deal of activity at local, state, and regional levels as well.

การคาดการณ์อนาคตเทคโนโลยี การคาดการณ์อนาคตเทคโนโลยี Presentation Transcript

  • technology foresight20 2554 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 1 www.apecforesight.org
  • patterns + new contextsignals APEC Center for Technology Foresight 2 www.apecforesight.org
  • Scenario A ExpectedToday Possible and Plausible futures early weak Preferred signals of change Scenario B Time Source: Bezold and Hancock 1993, modified by APEC CTF APEC Center for Technology Foresight 3 www.apecforesight.org
  • Source: Energy Modelling ForumAPEC Center for Technology Foresight 4 www.apecforesight.org
  • • Royal Dutch/Shell used scenario planning system in early 1970s.• Shell was prepared to deal with the 1973 oil shock and greatly improved its competitive position in the industry. APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org
  • Rand Corporation, Korea STEPI, NISTEP, Science & UK Foresight Global Technology Mega Trends Technology Programme Revolution 2020 (Govt Office for Science) Analysis Foresight Battelle, R&D Forecast 2011 Center for StrategicStudies and Management Science, Technology and Innovation STI Office, Forfas APEC CTF ITRI, Ireland 2025 Taiwan 2015 Technology Foresight European Commission, Singapore, Risk Research & Innovation - SSH APEC Center for Technology Foresight Assessment and www.apecforesight.org Horizon Scanning
  • Climate change and its impact Migration, ruralTrade of goods life, and natural and services resources Housing, const on, urban Society life, transporta and health APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org
  • Some lessons learned from LCS scenarios• Coastal-to-inland migration sparks major conflicts over land and resources.• Emergence of computerized farming and other technological advances.• Carbon accounting becomes so dominant it replaces USD as the global currency.• Community networking is the key. Community- driven initiatives drive the changes the world requires in pursuit of the low-carbon development path. APEC Center for Technology Foresight 8 www.apecforesight.org
  • GreenInclusive Innovation APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org
  • Future Mobile PhonesSource: http://mobile-explorer.blogspot.com/2009_02_01_archive.html APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org
  • APEC Center for TechnologySource: Picture of the Future, Siemens (2005) Foresight 11 www.apecforesight.org
  • Catching water pollutants. Siemens’ process (left) keeps membrane filters from becoming clogged. Boston’s Deer Island water treatment plant uses processes from Siemens Water Technologies APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.orgSource: http://www.siemens.com/innovation/
  • foresight• – –• sector – –• – –• – – APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org
  • Designing A Technology Roadmap Revisiting National Nanotechnology Technology Strategic Plan Roadmapping 2007-2013 and Master Plan (2007-2011) - NANOTEC Internal Resource Management - Impact Estimation Analyzing Global Nano - Timeline Mapping Science & - Charting TRM Nanotechnology Trend - Prioritization - Identify Keywords & Technology - Change Management Definition and Taxonomy Planning - Bibliometric Analysis - Patent Analysis - Literature ReviewJan 09 August 09 APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org
  • Drug delivery system Food processing & storage Textile R&D Agenda Vector & pest detection/control Disease diagnosis & screening Energy production, conversion & storage Water treatment & remediation Core Agricultural productivity enhancementKnowledge Tools Coating Target Core Target Encapsulation Technology Functional Nanostructure Target Safety & Risk Management Computer Modeling / Simulation Intelligence Information Unit Budget Resources Manpower Equipment Based on the requirement of Lab/ Project/ Program Integrated NANOTEC TRM APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org
  • Krabi Initiative 2010:Science Technology and Innovation (STI) for a Competitive , Sustainable and Inclusive ASEAN ASEAN 2015 – Vision of ASEAN LeadersRationale Roles of STI – A Balance between Competitiveness and Human Development (People-oriented STI) Reinventing ASEAN Scientific Community for a Meaningful Delivery of STI Agenda in ASEAN ASEAN Innovation for Digital Economy, New Media Green Food SecurityThematic Global Market & Social Network TechnologyTracks Energy Security Water Management Biodiversity for Health & Wealth Science and Innovation for Life STI Bottom-of-the - Youth-focused STI for Green Public-PrivateParadigm Enculturation Pyramid (BOP) Innovation Society Partnership PlatformShifts Focus Organisational restructure for a meaningful delivery of STI agenda in ASEAN Develop mechanisms to pursue partnerships and cooperation with other stakeholders in STICourses of Enhance ASEAN Plan of Action on S&T for 2012-2015 and leverage the recommendations of theAction Krabi Retreat for development of future APAST beyond 2015 Implement monitoring and evaluation mechanism for the implementation of STI thematic tracks APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org Source: National Science Technology and Innovation Policy Office - Thailand, December 2010
  • Rising above the gathering storm 1 Risk and disaster management APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org
  • Rising above the gathering storm• Influencing the debate and 2 structuring of federal policy and budgets, prompting activity at local, state, and regional levels.• Creating competitiveness – Human capital Twenty-first – Knowledge capital Century Skills – Innovation environment APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org