The Futures of                                             Low-Carbon                                         Society: An ...
“Confidence is what you have                    before you understand the                    problem”                     ...
What did people presume 50 years ago?Nares Damrongchai         Futures of Low Carbon Society
What did people presume 50 years ago?Nares Damrongchai         Futures of Low Carbon Society
What do we presume today?Nares Damrongchai      Futures of Low Carbon Society
What do we presume today?Nares Damrongchai       Futures of Low Carbon Society
What should we be presuming                    about 50 years time?Nares Damrongchai    Futures of Low Carbon Society
What should we be presuming                    about 50 years time?Nares Damrongchai      Futures of Low Carbon Society
Living and working in perpetual motion        ‘Alwayson’ culture with lots of traffic, but low-emission is the norm andNar...
Living and working in an urban colony    Building-integrated energy generation systems are a standard feature of all new  ...
Nares Damrongchai   Futures of Low Carbon Society
Living and working with good intentions        ConsumptionNares Damrongchai of energy isofclosely monitored, ultra-energy-...
Santa Monica Civic Center parking structureNares Damrongchai           Futures of Low Carbon Society
Urban Farm: Eco Office in TokyoFutures of Low Carbon Society                                  14
Futures of Low Carbon Society
“Low Carbon” is the only                       way to the futureNares Damrongchai        Futures of Low Carbon Society
APEC Center for Technology Foresight             Established in 1998 under Asia-Pacific             Economic Cooperation ...
APEC Member EconomiesAPEC Official Observers• Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat    Nares Damrong...
Mission of APEC CTF       •RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies       –7 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on high i...
Our Customers ●Siam Cement Group, Premier Group, CDG Group, Ministry of Public Health, SCI Research and Innovation Co.,Ltd...
The Foundations of Foresight                                             Futures                                          ...
The generic foresight process framework               inputs                                      Strategic intelligence s...
Scenario A                                     ExpectedToday                                     Possible                 ...
Whats the difference?Nares Damrongchai @APEC           24Center for Technology Foresight
The Johari WindowStrategic planning            trends                 KNOWN     UNKNOWN        environment                ...
What is the Rationale?   To link global science, technology, and policy    communities to government or local initiatives...
Q: What could the “divergent outcome”driven by climate change be like?A: Low carbon societies with multipledimensions.Q: B...
Process Flow of Scenario Planning               Trends             Uncertainties    Scenarios Logic   Scenarios   Communic...
Nares Damrongchai @APEC           29   Source: Picture of the Future, Siemens (2005)Center for Technology Foresight
Climate change and its impact                                                      Migration, rural      Trade of goods   ...
Nares Damrongchai   Futures of Low Carbon Society
Delphi survey is simply…….…..…a way to gather opinionsStructuring Group                                      wisdom Commu...
Group Communication                   “Group Gain”Groups can help to...• spot errors of fact or logic• resolve ambiguity  ...
Group Communication              “Group Loss”Groups can be...• hierarchical• conservativeIn a group, it can be difficult t...
Delphi‟s special features1. Anonymity2. (Re) iteration…..3. ...With controlled feedback
x               (Expert Panel) Expert A                            Expert B                 anonymity       Foresight Comm...
Delphi ApplicationsWithin foresight studies, Delphi is usually used totap the wisdom of a group, in order to:• predict whe...
Example of prediction:“When will the firsthydrogen-powered car hitthe market in yourcountry?” (Practical Use)
Consensus through Delphi       Planning of social services for the elderly - seeking opinions          of community- and h...
Source: Manufacturing Visions (ManVis) A Pan-European Delphi study (
Policy Delphi          The same 3 key features apply:     anonymity / iteration / controlled feedback   Example: “Governme...
Delphi logistics - some challenges Selecting and Recruiting the panel Scale and Response rates:           Japan „99 Kore...
Real-Time DelphiRT Delphi uses the widespread availability of high-speed  internet and software technologiesAlready used i...
http://bit.ly/cz2PXzNares Damrongchai       Futures of Low Carbon Society
Real-Time Delphi Survey • Purpose: to verify the global strategic trends   that drives the society up to 2050 and beyond. ...
Response rate and respondent profile •    78 from 5 regions (Af, Am, As, Eu, Oc) invited •    23-28 from 3 regions (28.2 -...
Example of converged opinionsStatement 15 : Water scarcity becomes a cause of war      Median = 3;   IQR = 1;   SD = 1.274...
Example of divergent opinionsStatement 13 : Algae technology capable of producing fuel (H2,oil, or ethanol) becomes commer...
Level of agreements on feasibility and                desirabilityTop 10 ranking       Bottom 10 ranking
The Top Ranking Trends Most existing commercial buildings are retrofitted to save 50% of  energy use on average. Energy ...
Chronology of Future Events        Global and regional earth                                          Consumers are willin...
Scenario workshop            2-4 November 2009, Phuket, Thailand            Brought together some 50 creative minds with...
•   Section 1: Climate Change & Its Impact       –   Climate change would have adverse impact but had some doubts about th...
Nares Damrongchai   Futures of Low Carbon Society
Nares Damrongchai   Futures of Low Carbon Society
Nares Damrongchai   Futures of Low Carbon Society
Nares Damrongchai   Futures of Low Carbon Society
Nares Damrongchai   Futures of Low Carbon Society
Some lessons learned from scenarios • Low Carbon society could be reachable within   our lifetime (at least for some of us...
http://www.lcs2050.com/Nares Damrongchai      Futures of Low Carbon Society                                               ...
Devise a roadmap with clear objectives on the steps          APEC should take to transition to low-carbon societiesMandate...
Establish international                        certification on green                               industries            ...
Advance public education toward                         low-carbon societies• Support regional knowledge  sharing and exch...
Establish APEC group for climate                         change             • The group should               enhance north...
Participating member economies1.    Hong Kong, China2.    Malaysia3.    Korea4.    Indonesia5.    Philippines6.    New Zea...
Source: World BusinessForum for SustainableDevelopment                         Futures of Low Carbon Society              ...
Global average energy budget of the Earth’s atmosphereNares Damrongchai          Futures of Low Carbon Society            ...
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) techniquesNares Damrongchai   Futures of Low Carbon Society                                  ...
Solar Radiation Management (SRM) techniquesNares Damrongchai      Futures of Low Carbon Society                           ...
Preliminary overall evaluation of the geoengineering techniques                                                          S...
What is a Smart Grid?A smart grid is an electricity network that uses digital  and other advanced technologies to monitor ...
Technologies of Smart Grid/Smart                              Community                  (Energy supply/demand perspective...
Lcs for green ict
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Lcs for green ict

  1. 1. The Futures of Low-Carbon Society: An Asia Pacific Vision Beyond 2050 13 September 2011 Green ICT toward Low-Carbon society Bangkok, ThailandDr. Nares Damrongchai, APEC Center for Technology Foresight 1
  2. 2. “Confidence is what you have before you understand the problem” --- Woody AllenNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  3. 3. What did people presume 50 years ago?Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  4. 4. What did people presume 50 years ago?Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  5. 5. What do we presume today?Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  6. 6. What do we presume today?Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  7. 7. What should we be presuming about 50 years time?Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  8. 8. What should we be presuming about 50 years time?Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  9. 9. Living and working in perpetual motion ‘Alwayson’ culture with lots of traffic, but low-emission is the norm andNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society sustainable energy forms are widely adopted.
  10. 10. Living and working in an urban colony Building-integrated energy generation systems are a standard feature of all new buildings, with photovoltaic skins a standard feature.Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  11. 11. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  12. 12. Living and working with good intentions ConsumptionNares Damrongchai of energy isofclosely monitored, ultra-energy-efficient vehicles are Futures Low Carbon Society connected into an integrated traffic management system.
  13. 13. Santa Monica Civic Center parking structureNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  14. 14. Urban Farm: Eco Office in TokyoFutures of Low Carbon Society 14
  15. 15. Futures of Low Carbon Society
  16. 16. “Low Carbon” is the only way to the futureNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  17. 17. APEC Center for Technology Foresight Established in 1998 under Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)  Now part of STI, ThailandNares Damrongchai @APEC 17Center for Technology Foresight
  18. 18. APEC Member EconomiesAPEC Official Observers• Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat Nares Damrongchai @APEC 18• Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) Center forForum (PIF) Foresight• Pacific Islands Technology © 2008 APEC Secretariat
  19. 19. Mission of APEC CTF •RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies –7 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on high impact area such as water, education, nanotechnology and energy –Mostly funded by both NSTDA and APEC –Methodologies include Delphi, Scenarios, and TRM •CONSULTING: for Public and Private Sectors •TRAINING: Seminars and Workshops (2-3 times a year) ●Conference on Foresight and Emerging Technologies Towards “Best Practice” in Technology ForesightNares Damrongchai @APEC 19Center for Technology Foresight
  20. 20. Our Customers ●Siam Cement Group, Premier Group, CDG Group, Ministry of Public Health, SCI Research and Innovation Co.,Ltd., CAT Telecom Pubic Company Limited, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Department of Agriculture, Institute of Solar Energy Technology Development, Petroleum Institute of Thailand, TRIDI, KNIT, Kasetsart University, Parliamentary Office, TPA, SIRIM, NISTPASS, and many others.Nares Damrongchai @APEC 20Center for Technology Foresight
  21. 21. The Foundations of Foresight Futures Studies Foresight Strategic Policy Planning DevelopmentNares Damrongchai, APEC Centerfor Technology Foresight ©2008
  22. 22. The generic foresight process framework inputs Strategic intelligence scanning, Delphi analysis Emerging issues/trends analysis Foresight interpretation Systems thinking, Causal Layered Analysis prospection Scenarios, visioning, backcasts, roadmaps outputs Reports, presentations, workshops, multimedia Strategy development & strategic planning: strategy individual, workgroup, organisation, society, etc. Source: Voros (2003)Nares Damrongchai @APEC 22Center for Technology Foresight
  23. 23. Scenario A ExpectedToday Possible and Plausible futures early weak signals of Preferred change Scenario B TimeSource: Bezold and23Hancock 1993, Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  24. 24. Whats the difference?Nares Damrongchai @APEC 24Center for Technology Foresight
  25. 25. The Johari WindowStrategic planning trends KNOWN UNKNOWN environment KNOWNS KNOWNS scanning KNOWN UNKNOWN imagination Knowledge UNKNOWNS management UNKNOWNSNares Damrongchai @APEC ForesightCenter for Technology Foresight
  26. 26. What is the Rationale? To link global science, technology, and policy communities to government or local initiatives to combat climate change issues. – A new sense of purpose for global science, technology, and innovation due to environmental limits. To envision and describe the future society where a low- carbon economy and adaptive lifestyle become the principle drivers governing trade and development. Futures of Low Carbon Society
  27. 27. Q: What could the “divergent outcome”driven by climate change be like?A: Low carbon societies with multipledimensions.Q: But what will they look like in 2050?A: We dont know yet, but certainly not justabout reducing emission anymore.
  28. 28. Process Flow of Scenario Planning Trends Uncertainties Scenarios Logic Scenarios Communication Identification Identification Design Writing StrategyNares Damrongchai @APECCenter for Technology Foresight
  29. 29. Nares Damrongchai @APEC 29 Source: Picture of the Future, Siemens (2005)Center for Technology Foresight
  30. 30. Climate change and its impact Migration, rural Trade of goods life, and natural and services resources Housing, construction, Society urban life, and health of Low Carbon SocietyNares Damrongchai Futures transportation
  31. 31. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  32. 32. Delphi survey is simply…….…..…a way to gather opinionsStructuring Group wisdom Communication DistillationMaking Informed knowledge Judgment informationForesight data
  33. 33. Group Communication “Group Gain”Groups can help to...• spot errors of fact or logic• resolve ambiguity Groups provide... • broad base of information • greater creativity
  34. 34. Group Communication “Group Loss”Groups can be...• hierarchical• conservativeIn a group, it can be difficult to... - disagree with the majority - express an „extreme‟ opinion - question someone with higher status
  35. 35. Delphi‟s special features1. Anonymity2. (Re) iteration…..3. ...With controlled feedback
  36. 36. x (Expert Panel) Expert A Expert B anonymity Foresight Committee answer answer moderatorfeedback feedback
  37. 37. Delphi ApplicationsWithin foresight studies, Delphi is usually used totap the wisdom of a group, in order to:• predict when S&T developments will occur• assess policy options• encourage decisions consensus conformityconvergence
  38. 38. Example of prediction:“When will the firsthydrogen-powered car hitthe market in yourcountry?” (Practical Use)
  39. 39. Consensus through Delphi Planning of social services for the elderly - seeking opinions of community- and hospital-based doctors about seriousness and prevalence of health problemsFrom Delphi Techniques and the Planning of SocialServices - The Prevention of Dependency Among the
  40. 40. Source: Manufacturing Visions (ManVis) A Pan-European Delphi study (
  41. 41. Policy Delphi The same 3 key features apply: anonymity / iteration / controlled feedback Example: “Government should bear the burden of health care across the population by providing 100% financial support to ensure universal and equitable access to services.” Desirability Feasibility Importance assessment assessment assessment very desirable 1 definitely 1 very important 1 desirable 2 possibly 2 important 2 undesirable 3 probably not 3 not very importantvery undesirable 4 definitely not 4 completely_ 3 _unimportant 4
  42. 42. Delphi logistics - some challenges Selecting and Recruiting the panel Scale and Response rates: Japan „99 Korea „99 Austria „98 UK „95 1st round 86% 41% 46% 31%2nd round 82% 79% 71% 41%responses 3106 1444 1224 1022
  43. 43. Real-Time DelphiRT Delphi uses the widespread availability of high-speed internet and software technologiesAlready used in UN Millennium Project APEC Low-Carbon Society Project Universal Health Care Foresight Thailand Global Risks Analysis Project etc. 45
  44. 44. http://bit.ly/cz2PXzNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  45. 45. Real-Time Delphi Survey • Purpose: to verify the global strategic trends that drives the society up to 2050 and beyond. – Feasibility – Desirability • Period: 15 June – 30 August, 2009 • Participated by international experts – Anonymity – Iterative (roundless) –max. 4 rounds – Controlled feedbackNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 47
  46. 46. Response rate and respondent profile • 78 from 5 regions (Af, Am, As, Eu, Oc) invited • 23-28 from 3 regions (28.2 - 35.9 %) answered • Asia 21.8 - 26.9 % • Thailand 7-9 out of 23-28 • Gender (male 15-19, female 6-9)Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 48
  47. 47. Example of converged opinionsStatement 15 : Water scarcity becomes a cause of war Median = 3; IQR = 1; SD = 1.274 Median = 5; IQR = 0; SD = 0.929 Median = 1; IQR = 0.25; SD = 0.929 Median = 4; IQR = 1.25; SD = 1.032
  48. 48. Example of divergent opinionsStatement 13 : Algae technology capable of producing fuel (H2,oil, or ethanol) becomes commercially wide-spread. Median = 2; IQR = 2; SD = 1.014 Median = 4; IQR = 2; SD = 1.043 Median = 4; IQR = 2; SD = 1.100 Median = 3; IQR = 2; SD = 1.087Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  49. 49. Level of agreements on feasibility and desirabilityTop 10 ranking Bottom 10 ranking
  50. 50. The Top Ranking Trends Most existing commercial buildings are retrofitted to save 50% of energy use on average. Energy efficiency of home and office appliances increases by 50%. Shift of farming land to higher altitude and colder areas cause major destruction of the most important carbon sink (forests). A low carbon related SR (Social Responsibility) ISO Standard is considered the norm of any business practice. Global and regional earth system modeling (integrated assessment model) provides highly accurate information. Migration of people from coastal area towards inland induces major conflicts over land and resources 20% of electricity is generated by decentralized sources.
  51. 51. Chronology of Future Events Global and regional earth Consumers are willing to pay2030 system modeling Skilled immigration applicant increase and are more for low carbon Economies that were previously dominated by Energy efficiency of home and office appliances (integrated assessment easily accepted footprint products manufacturing industries increases by 50%. model) provides highly /sectors have moved accurate Ecotourism becomes Technologies significantly Majority of trips in daily life improve the healthcare dramatically towards dominant in the tourism will be through efficient system to cope with new knowledge-based services Food scarcity occurs as a industry public transportation as result of a significant shift in infectious diseases A low carbon related SR,ISO opposed to personal mode Coastal ecosystem stimulated from global land allocation from food Standard is considered the management becomes warming 20% of electricity is crop to energy crop norm of business practice widespread and generated by decentralized Effective mechanisms are economically beneficial Technological process Carbon accounting becomes sources devised to cope with the changes toward producing mandatory globally direct impact of climate New generations of well- food locally to serve educated people choose Environmentally friendly related events societal demand while new knowledge-intensive, goods is now the dominant reducing carbon emission agriculture-based industries consumer goods in the that are more sustainable global market Algae technology capable of Water scarcity becomes a Global IT network will producing fuel (H2, oil, or cause of War reduce the traveling of Air freight shipments are ethanol) becomes people to the 1990 level down to 1990 level commercially wide-spread High demand on carbon2040 Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is effectively and fully deduction creates A global regulatory framework of low carbon is Political instability and inter-regional conflicts due Most existing commercial buildings are retrofitted to implemented sustainable income from totally accepted to climate change impacts save 50% of energy use on the poor rural people who lead to little interaction average Technology and plant trees and energy between the major management enable forest crops Personal transportation, Shift of farming land to economic co-operations plantations to act as the supplementing mass Migration of people from higher altitude and colder main carbon sink It is realized that emission transportation, will mainly coastal area towards inland areas cause major trading has had little effect consist of shared, loaned or induces major conflicts over destruction of the most on reducing the global rents vehicles land and resources important carbon sink green house gas emission2050 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized Breakthroughs in battery storage technology make at 1990 level obsolete all other fuels including H2Beyond 2050 Conventional fuels disappear completely from transportation sector
  52. 52. Scenario workshop  2-4 November 2009, Phuket, Thailand  Brought together some 50 creative minds with diverse expertise, roles, ages, genders, and nationalities from across the Asia-Pacific to sketch out desirable low-carbon futures for the region and some paths for how to get there.  Low carbon – high quality lifestyles, is it possible?Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 56
  53. 53. • Section 1: Climate Change & Its Impact – Climate change would have adverse impact but had some doubts about the technologies like carbon capture and storage and earth system modeling as well as the effectiveness of international agreements. • Section 2: Migration, Rural Life, and Natural Resources – Rising sea level will force farmers to shift to higher altitude despite coastal ecosystem management. Impacts of ecotourism and skilled immigration are only moderate. Water scarcity of course is a major concern. There are conflicting views whether well-educated people will go farming and whether rural poor can gain benefits planting trees and energy crops. • Section 3: Society / Health – Experts were optimistic that technologies can improve healthcare system. The low carbon concept is spreading and some consumers are willing to pay more for green product. • Section 4: Trade of Goods and Services – Participated experts generally are positive regarding movements towards green trade and services despite some doubts about the effectiveness of implementation. • Section 5: Housing and Construction / Urban Life / Transportation – Experts have good faith in technologies to boost energy efficiency, public transportation, and renewable energy though conventional fuel will not disappear so quickly.Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 57
  54. 54. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  55. 55. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  56. 56. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  57. 57. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  58. 58. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  59. 59. Some lessons learned from scenarios • Low Carbon society could be reachable within our lifetime (at least for some of us). • Community networking is the key. Community- driven initiatives drive the changes the world requires in pursuit of the low-carbon development path. • Emergence of computerized farming and other technological advances. • Carbon accounting becomes so dominant it replaces USD as the global currency.Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 63
  60. 60. http://www.lcs2050.com/Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 64
  61. 61. Devise a roadmap with clear objectives on the steps APEC should take to transition to low-carbon societiesMandate and support incorporation of international climate mitigation and adaptation strategies into national development plans.APEC Energy Working Group has proposed “Low-Carbon Paths to Energy Security” and develop a technology roadmap.
  62. 62. Establish international certification on green industries • Support investment strategies that encourage compliance. • Set regional priorities such as Combating airborne pollution Trading in low-carbon products Enhancing public awareness Strengthening law enforcement Promote environmentally sustainable practices.
  63. 63. Advance public education toward low-carbon societies• Support regional knowledge sharing and exchanges through communications and networking among APEC members.• Promote green values by supporting APEC-wide media campaigns that recruit participation from private sector actors.
  64. 64. Establish APEC group for climate change • The group should enhance north- south and south- south collaboration and negotiation among international parties. • Political will must be mobilized.
  65. 65. Participating member economies1. Hong Kong, China2. Malaysia3. Korea4. Indonesia5. Philippines6. New Zealand7. Canada8. Japan9. Australia10. Vietnam11. Chinese Taipei12. Singapore Macao, China13. China United Kingdom14. Russia Germany15. Thailand16. United States
  66. 66. Source: World BusinessForum for SustainableDevelopment Futures of Low Carbon Society 70
  67. 67. Global average energy budget of the Earth’s atmosphereNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society Adapted from Kiehl & Trenberth (1997)
  68. 68. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) techniquesNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society Source: Royal Society 2009
  69. 69. Solar Radiation Management (SRM) techniquesNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society Source: Royal Society 2009
  70. 70. Preliminary overall evaluation of the geoengineering techniques Source: Royal Society 2009Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  71. 71. What is a Smart Grid?A smart grid is an electricity network that uses digital and other advanced technologies to monitor and manage the transport of electricity from all generation sources to meet the varying electricity demand of end-users.[Technology Roadmap: Smart Grids,
  72. 72. Technologies of Smart Grid/Smart Community (Energy supply/demand perspective) Supply Side Demand SideElectricity Power Community:Generation Distribution Micro grid/CEMS Network and Storage Factory: FEMS Smart Meter Building: BEMS House: HEMS Transport: EV/PHEV ICT Infrastructure for Smart Community

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