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บทบาทของเทคโนโลยอเลกทรอนกส
  และคอมพวเตอร กบการรบมอภาวะ
         โลกรอนของประเทศไทย




 นเรศ ด#ารงชย (nares@sti.or.th)
 A...
Slides available at:
http://www.slideshare.net/naresdam
Global Strategic Trends




        Source: Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2040, Ministry of Defence UK (2010)
Global map of science by discipline




           The Scientific Century: Securing our Future Prosperity, The Royal Socie...
http://www.neweconomics.org/




      N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
What did people presume 50 years ago?




           Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www....
What do we presume today?




          Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov...
What should we be presuming
about 50 years time?




          Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, h...
Living and working in perpetual motion




‘Always on’ culture with lots of traffic, but low-emission is the norm and
sust...
The Powermat Portable is intended for travelers. Place any device on the mat, and it
uses induction to deliver a wireless ...
Living and working in an urban colony




Building-integrated energy generation systems are a standard feature of all new
...
Source: Monocle, issue 29, volume 03 (Dec09 - Jan10)
Living and working with good intentions




Consumption of energy is closely monitored, ultra-energy-efficient vehicles ar...
Santa Monica Civic Center parking structure




                    Source: http://www.greendiary.com/, posted Nov09
Zayan Masood, 11 yrs old, Bangladesh
                                 N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Fore...
What is the Rationale?

    To link global science, technology, and policy
    communities to government or local initiat...
Low Carbon Society in Practice:
          Thailand




            N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresig...
Real-Time Delphi Survey (web-based)


    15 June – 30 August 2009

    Anonymity

    Iterative (roundless) –max. 4 ro...
Chronology of Future Events
2030      Global and regional earth
        system modeling (integrated
                      ...
•   Section 1: Climate Change & Its Impact
    – Climate change would have adverse impact but had some doubts about the
  ...
N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Some lessons learnt from scenarios

    Low-carbon society could be reachable within our
    lifetime (at least for some ...
http://www.lcs2050.com/




       N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
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Computer Electronics For Climate Change

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Transcript of "Computer Electronics For Climate Change"

  1. 1. บทบาทของเทคโนโลยอเลกทรอนกส และคอมพวเตอร กบการรบมอภาวะ โลกรอนของประเทศไทย นเรศ ด#ารงชย (nares@sti.or.th) APEC Center for Technology Foresight, STI
  2. 2. Slides available at: http://www.slideshare.net/naresdam
  3. 3. Global Strategic Trends Source: Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2040, Ministry of Defence UK (2010)
  4. 4. Global map of science by discipline The Scientific Century: Securing our Future Prosperity, The Royal Society (2010) N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  5. 5. http://www.neweconomics.org/ N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  6. 6. What did people presume 50 years ago? Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  7. 7. What do we presume today? Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  8. 8. What should we be presuming about 50 years time? Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  9. 9. Living and working in perpetual motion ‘Always on’ culture with lots of traffic, but low-emission is the norm and sustainable energy forms are widely adopted. Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  10. 10. The Powermat Portable is intended for travelers. Place any device on the mat, and it uses induction to deliver a wireless charge; the power flows to small receivers that can be fitted to most handheld gadgets. The Powermat is powered by an AC adapter, but a built-in lithium-ion battery allows charging when you can't find a wall socket. Availability: Fall 2010 Source: www.powermat.com
  11. 11. Living and working in an urban colony Building-integrated energy generation systems are a standard feature of all new buildings, with photovoltaic skins a standard feature. Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  12. 12. Source: Monocle, issue 29, volume 03 (Dec09 - Jan10)
  13. 13. Living and working with good intentions Consumption of energy is closely monitored, ultra-energy-efficient vehicles are connected into an integrated traffic management system. Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  14. 14. Santa Monica Civic Center parking structure Source: http://www.greendiary.com/, posted Nov09
  15. 15. Zayan Masood, 11 yrs old, Bangladesh N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight http://theglobalcommonsproject.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/the-sharp-edge-of-climate-change/
  16. 16. What is the Rationale?  To link global science, technology, and policy communities to government or local initiatives to combat climate change issues. – A new sense of purpose for global science, technology, and innovation due to environmental limits.  To envision and describe the future society where a low-carbon economy and adaptive lifestyle become the principle drivers governing trade and development. N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  17. 17. Low Carbon Society in Practice: Thailand N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  18. 18. Real-Time Delphi Survey (web-based)  15 June – 30 August 2009  Anonymity  Iterative (roundless) –max. 4 rounds  Controlled feedback  Topics  Climate change & its impacts  Migration, rural life & natural resources  Society/health  Trade of goods & service  Housing & construction/urban life/transportation N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  19. 19. Chronology of Future Events 2030 Global and regional earth system modeling (integrated Skilled immigration applicant Consumers are willing to pay more for low carbon footprint Economies that were previously dominated by Energy efficiency of home and office appliances increases by increase and are easily accepted products manufacturing industries 50%. assessment model) provides highly accurate /sectors have moved dramatically towards Majority of trips in daily life will Ecotourism becomes dominant Technologies significantly knowledge-based services be through efficient public in the tourism industry improve the healthcare system Food scarcity occurs as a result transportation as opposed to to cope with new infectious of a significant shift in land A low carbon related SR,ISO personal mode diseases stimulated from global allocation from food crop to Coastal ecosystem management warming Standard is considered the energy crop becomes widespread and norm of business practice 20% of electricity is generated economically beneficial by decentralized sources Effective mechanisms are Carbon accounting becomes devised to cope with the Technological process changes mandatory globally direct impact of climate New generations of well- toward producing food locally related events educated people choose new to serve societal demand while reducing carbon emission Environmentally friendly goods knowledge-intensive, is now the dominant consumer agriculture-based industries goods in the global market that are more sustainable Algae technology capable of Water scarcity becomes a cause Global IT network will reduce producing fuel (H2, oil, or of War the traveling of people to the Air freight shipments are down ethanol) becomes commercially 1990 level to 1990 level wide-spread 2040 Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is effectively and fully High demand on carbon A global regulatory framework Political instability and inter- Most existing commercial deduction creates sustainable of low carbon is totally accepted buildings are retrofitted to save implemented income from the poor rural regional conflicts due to climate change impacts lead to 50% of energy use on average people who plant trees and energy crops little interaction between the Technology and management major economic co-operations enable forest plantations to act Personal transportation, as the main carbon sink Shift of farming land to higher supplementing mass Migration of people from altitude and colder areas cause transportation, will mainly It is realized that emission coastal area towards inland major destruction of the most consist of shared, loaned or trading has had little effect on induces major conflicts over important carbon sink rents vehicles reducing the global green house land and resources gas emission 2050 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized at 1990 Breakthroughs in battery storage technology make level obsolete all other fuels including H2 Beyond 2050 Conventional fuels disappear completely from transportation sector
  20. 20. • Section 1: Climate Change & Its Impact – Climate change would have adverse impact but had some doubts about the technologies like carbon capture and storage and earth system modeling as well as the effectiveness of international agreements. • Section 2: Migration, Rural Life, and Natural Resources – Rising sea level will force farmers to shift to higher attitude despite coastal ecosystem management. Impacts of ecotourism and skilled immigration are only moderate. Water scarcity of course is a major concern. There are conflicting views whether well-educated people will go farming and whether rural poor can gain benefits planting trees and energy crops. • Section 3: Society / Health – Experts were optimistic that technologies can improve healthcare system. The low carbon concept is spreading and some consumers are willing to pay more for green product. • Section 4: Trade of Goods and Services – Participated experts generally are positive regarding movements towards green trade and services despite some doubts about the effectiveness of implementation. • Section 5: Housing and Construction / Urban Life / Transportation – Experts have good faith in technologies to boost energy efficiency, public transportation, and renewable energy though conventional fuel will not disappear so quickly. N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  21. 21. N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  22. 22. N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  23. 23. Some lessons learnt from scenarios  Low-carbon society could be reachable within our lifetime (at least for some of us).  Community networking is the key. Community-driven initiatives drive the changes the world requires in pursuit of the low-carbon development path.  Emergence of computerized farming and other technological advances.  Carbon accounting becomes so dominant it replaces USD as the global currency. N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  24. 24. http://www.lcs2050.com/ N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
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