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Koons.sunday.incorporating disasterplans

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  • 1. 1 North Central Florida Regional Planning Council
  • 2. 2 Incorporating Disaster Plans into Comprehensive Economic Development Strategies National Association of Development Organizations 2013 Annual Training Conference San Francisco, CA August 25, 2013 Scott R. Koons, AICP Executive Director North Central Florida Regional Planning Council Gainesville, FL
  • 3. 3 Economic and Disaster Resiliency
  • 4. 4 Overview  North Central Florida Region  Study Partners  Hazards Analysis  Vulnerability Analysis  Economic Analysis  Conclusions
  • 5. 5 Regional Planning Councils  2/3 Local Elected Officials  1/3 Gubernatorial Appointees  Counties Mandatory and Cities Voluntary
  • 6. 6  11 counties and 33 municipalities (13 member cities)  7,000 square miles  500,000 population North Central Florida Region
  • 7. 7 Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
  • 8. 8 Study Partners FEMA Regional Economic Models, Inc., Policy Insight Plus Microsoft Excel U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service
  • 9. 9 Hazards Analysis  County Maps: Hurricane Surge Freshwater Flooding Wildfire Hazard
  • 10. 10 Category 5 Hurricane Storm Surge
  • 11. 11 North Central Florida 100-Year Flood Zones
  • 12. 12 Wildfire Level of Concern
  • 13. 13 Vulnerability Analysis  Maps of jobs by industry, housing by decade built, critical infrastructures and staging areas by Census Block Group.  Identifies industries densely located in hurricane/flooding prone areas.
  • 14. 14 Residential Parcels
  • 15. 15 Commercial and Industrial Parcels within 100-Year Flood Zone
  • 16. 16 Critical Infrastructure
  • 17. 17 Economic Analysis  Consequences of Category 5 Hurricane in North Central Florida  Positive Impacts (Reconstruction, Spending, Cleanup Activity, Influx of Federal Funds)  Negative Impacts (Job Loss, Population Loss, County Government Revenue Loss)  Associated Indirect Impacts
  • 18. 18 Impact Analysis Building Blocks  Council - Hurricane Tracks  National Weather Service - Hurricane Modeling Information  HazUS - Building Damage  Council - Direct Impacts (Job Losses, Population Losses, Recovery Times)  Regional Economic Models, Inc. - Indirect Impacts
  • 19. 19 Hypothetical Hurricanes
  • 20. 20 Hypothetical Hurricane Assumptions  Two Hypothetical Category 5 Hurricanes Developed by National Weather Service  Enter Region from Gulf of Mexico  6 - 7 Hours to Traverse Region  29-Mile Radius of Maximum Winds  Enter with 160-170 mph Maximum Winds  Exit with 95 mph Maximum Winds
  • 21. 21 North Track Hurricane Path
  • 22. 22 South Track Hurricane Path
  • 23. 23 North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts - North Track Hurricane  10% Capital Stock (Building) Loss  15% Buildings Severely Damaged or Destroyed  13% Population Loss  8% Job Loss  Basic Industry Jobs Recovered in 5 Years
  • 24. 24 North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts North Track Hurricane - Building Damage Use Percentage of Buildings Damaged by Degree of Damage None Minor Moderate Severe Destroyed Total Agriculture 40.5 20.1 17.1 16.4 5.9 100.0 Commercial 51.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 1.9 100.0 Education 75.8 12.1 6.3 5.8 0.1 100.0 Government 51.6 14.1 14.3 19.5 0.5 100.0 Industrial 48.2 14.6 15.1 19.6 2.4 100.0 Religion 50.7 17.5 14.5 15.8 1.5 100.0 Residential 50.0 20.8 14.9 6.6 7.7 100.0 Total 50.2 20.4 14.9 7.3 7.2 100.0
  • 25. 25 North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts - South Track Hurricane  47% Capital Stock (Buildings) Loss  53% Buildings Severely Damaged/Destroyed  30% Population Loss  22% Job Loss  Basic Industry Jobs Recovered in 6 Years
  • 26. 26 North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts - South Track Hurricane - Building Damage Use Percentage of Buildings Damaged by Degree of Damage None Minor Moderate Severe Destroyed Total Agriculture 11.8 10.5 20.7 40.7 16.3 100.0 Commercial 11.3 7.3 19.7 55.4 6.4 100.0 Education 4.8 3.9 13.8 75.9 1.7 100.0 Government 12.5 7.1 16.6 62.5 1.4 100.0 Industrial 10.5 6.8 16.6 61.1 5.0 100.0 Religion 13.2 10.3 21.2 51.5 3.9 100.0 Residential 13.9 11.9 22.3 26.1 25.9 100.0 Total 13.7 11.5 22.1 28.3 24.4 100.0
  • 27. 27 Direct Impacts - Assumptions  All Damaged Basic Industry Buildings Repaired/Rebuilt  All Basic Industry Jobs and Associated Population Returns  All Homes with Mortgages are Repaired/Rebuilt and Associated Population Returns
  • 28. 28 Direct Impacts - Assumptions, Continued  Half of Homes without Mortgages are Repaired/Rebuilt and Associated Population Returns  Recovery of Non-Basic Industry Jobs Determined by Regional Economic Models, Inc.  Recovery of Population Associated with Non-Basic Jobs Determined by Regional Economic Models, Inc.
  • 29. 29 Total Impacts Direct Impacts + Indirect Impacts = Total Impacts
  • 30. 30 North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - Jobs 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 JobsThousands w/o Hurricane South Track Hurricane North Track Hurricane South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011
  • 31. 31 North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - Population 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 PersonsThousands w/o Hurricane South Track Hurricane North Track Hurricane South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011
  • 32. 32 North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - County Government Revenue $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 $900 $950 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 RevenueMillions w/o Hurricane South Track Hurricane North Track Hurricane South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011
  • 33. 33 Conclusions  Basic Industry Jobs Return  Federal Assistance to Basic Industries Reduces Recovery Times  Non-basic Jobs Dependent on County Population
  • 34. 34 Conclusions, Continued  Minimize Non-Basic Industry Job Loss by Retaining Population Federal Disaster and Debris Removal Assistance Provides Boost to Local Economy For 3 Years After Disaster, Little Impact Thereafter
  • 35. 35 For More Information Study Available at www.ncfrpc.org or Contact Scott R. Koons, AICP, Executive Director, at koons@ncfrpc.org
  • 36. 36 North Central Florida Regional Planning Council 2009 NW 67th Place Gainesville, FL 32653-1603 352.955.2200 www.ncfrpc.org