1
North Central Florida
Regional Planning Council
2
Incorporating Disaster Plans
into Comprehensive Economic
Development Strategies
National Association of Development Orga...
3
Economic and Disaster Resiliency
4
Overview
 North Central Florida Region
 Study Partners
 Hazards Analysis
 Vulnerability Analysis
 Economic Analysis...
5
Regional Planning Councils
 2/3 Local Elected Officials
 1/3 Gubernatorial
Appointees
 Counties Mandatory
and Cities ...
6
 11 counties and 33 municipalities
(13 member cities)
 7,000 square miles
 500,000 population
North Central Florida R...
7
Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
8
Study Partners
FEMA
Regional Economic Models, Inc., Policy Insight Plus
Microsoft Excel
U.S. Department of Commerce,
Eco...
9
Hazards Analysis
 County Maps:
Hurricane Surge
Freshwater Flooding
Wildfire Hazard
10
Category 5 Hurricane Storm Surge
11
North Central Florida
100-Year Flood Zones
12
Wildfire Level of Concern
13
Vulnerability Analysis
 Maps of jobs by industry, housing by decade
built, critical infrastructures and staging areas ...
14
Residential Parcels
15
Commercial and Industrial Parcels
within 100-Year Flood Zone
16
Critical Infrastructure
17
Economic Analysis
 Consequences of Category 5 Hurricane in
North Central Florida
 Positive Impacts (Reconstruction, S...
18
Impact Analysis Building Blocks
 Council - Hurricane Tracks
 National Weather Service -
Hurricane Modeling Informatio...
19
Hypothetical Hurricanes
20
Hypothetical Hurricane Assumptions
 Two Hypothetical Category 5 Hurricanes
Developed by National Weather Service
 Ent...
21
North Track Hurricane Path
22
South Track Hurricane Path
23
North Central Florida Region
Direct Impacts - North Track Hurricane
 10% Capital Stock (Building) Loss
 15% Buildings...
24
North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts
North Track Hurricane - Building Damage
Use
Percentage of Buildings Damaged...
25
North Central Florida Region
Direct Impacts - South Track Hurricane
 47% Capital Stock (Buildings) Loss
 53% Building...
26
North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts
- South Track Hurricane - Building Damage
Use
Percentage of Buildings Damag...
27
Direct Impacts - Assumptions
 All Damaged Basic Industry Buildings
Repaired/Rebuilt
 All Basic Industry Jobs and Asso...
28
Direct Impacts - Assumptions, Continued
 Half of Homes without Mortgages are
Repaired/Rebuilt and Associated Populatio...
29
Total Impacts
Direct Impacts
+ Indirect Impacts
= Total Impacts
30
North Central Florida Region
Total Impacts - Jobs
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20...
31
North Central Florida Region
Total Impacts - Population
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ...
32
North Central Florida Region Total Impacts -
County Government Revenue
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
201...
33
Conclusions
 Basic Industry Jobs Return
 Federal Assistance to Basic Industries
Reduces Recovery Times
 Non-basic Jo...
34
Conclusions, Continued
 Minimize Non-Basic Industry Job Loss
by Retaining Population
Federal Disaster and Debris Remo...
35
For More Information
Study Available at www.ncfrpc.org
or Contact Scott R. Koons, AICP, Executive Director, at
koons@nc...
36
North Central Florida Regional Planning Council
2009 NW 67th Place
Gainesville, FL 32653-1603
352.955.2200
www.ncfrpc.o...
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Koons.sunday.incorporating disasterplans

  1. 1. 1 North Central Florida Regional Planning Council
  2. 2. 2 Incorporating Disaster Plans into Comprehensive Economic Development Strategies National Association of Development Organizations 2013 Annual Training Conference San Francisco, CA August 25, 2013 Scott R. Koons, AICP Executive Director North Central Florida Regional Planning Council Gainesville, FL
  3. 3. 3 Economic and Disaster Resiliency
  4. 4. 4 Overview  North Central Florida Region  Study Partners  Hazards Analysis  Vulnerability Analysis  Economic Analysis  Conclusions
  5. 5. 5 Regional Planning Councils  2/3 Local Elected Officials  1/3 Gubernatorial Appointees  Counties Mandatory and Cities Voluntary
  6. 6. 6  11 counties and 33 municipalities (13 member cities)  7,000 square miles  500,000 population North Central Florida Region
  7. 7. 7 Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
  8. 8. 8 Study Partners FEMA Regional Economic Models, Inc., Policy Insight Plus Microsoft Excel U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service
  9. 9. 9 Hazards Analysis  County Maps: Hurricane Surge Freshwater Flooding Wildfire Hazard
  10. 10. 10 Category 5 Hurricane Storm Surge
  11. 11. 11 North Central Florida 100-Year Flood Zones
  12. 12. 12 Wildfire Level of Concern
  13. 13. 13 Vulnerability Analysis  Maps of jobs by industry, housing by decade built, critical infrastructures and staging areas by Census Block Group.  Identifies industries densely located in hurricane/flooding prone areas.
  14. 14. 14 Residential Parcels
  15. 15. 15 Commercial and Industrial Parcels within 100-Year Flood Zone
  16. 16. 16 Critical Infrastructure
  17. 17. 17 Economic Analysis  Consequences of Category 5 Hurricane in North Central Florida  Positive Impacts (Reconstruction, Spending, Cleanup Activity, Influx of Federal Funds)  Negative Impacts (Job Loss, Population Loss, County Government Revenue Loss)  Associated Indirect Impacts
  18. 18. 18 Impact Analysis Building Blocks  Council - Hurricane Tracks  National Weather Service - Hurricane Modeling Information  HazUS - Building Damage  Council - Direct Impacts (Job Losses, Population Losses, Recovery Times)  Regional Economic Models, Inc. - Indirect Impacts
  19. 19. 19 Hypothetical Hurricanes
  20. 20. 20 Hypothetical Hurricane Assumptions  Two Hypothetical Category 5 Hurricanes Developed by National Weather Service  Enter Region from Gulf of Mexico  6 - 7 Hours to Traverse Region  29-Mile Radius of Maximum Winds  Enter with 160-170 mph Maximum Winds  Exit with 95 mph Maximum Winds
  21. 21. 21 North Track Hurricane Path
  22. 22. 22 South Track Hurricane Path
  23. 23. 23 North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts - North Track Hurricane  10% Capital Stock (Building) Loss  15% Buildings Severely Damaged or Destroyed  13% Population Loss  8% Job Loss  Basic Industry Jobs Recovered in 5 Years
  24. 24. 24 North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts North Track Hurricane - Building Damage Use Percentage of Buildings Damaged by Degree of Damage None Minor Moderate Severe Destroyed Total Agriculture 40.5 20.1 17.1 16.4 5.9 100.0 Commercial 51.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 1.9 100.0 Education 75.8 12.1 6.3 5.8 0.1 100.0 Government 51.6 14.1 14.3 19.5 0.5 100.0 Industrial 48.2 14.6 15.1 19.6 2.4 100.0 Religion 50.7 17.5 14.5 15.8 1.5 100.0 Residential 50.0 20.8 14.9 6.6 7.7 100.0 Total 50.2 20.4 14.9 7.3 7.2 100.0
  25. 25. 25 North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts - South Track Hurricane  47% Capital Stock (Buildings) Loss  53% Buildings Severely Damaged/Destroyed  30% Population Loss  22% Job Loss  Basic Industry Jobs Recovered in 6 Years
  26. 26. 26 North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts - South Track Hurricane - Building Damage Use Percentage of Buildings Damaged by Degree of Damage None Minor Moderate Severe Destroyed Total Agriculture 11.8 10.5 20.7 40.7 16.3 100.0 Commercial 11.3 7.3 19.7 55.4 6.4 100.0 Education 4.8 3.9 13.8 75.9 1.7 100.0 Government 12.5 7.1 16.6 62.5 1.4 100.0 Industrial 10.5 6.8 16.6 61.1 5.0 100.0 Religion 13.2 10.3 21.2 51.5 3.9 100.0 Residential 13.9 11.9 22.3 26.1 25.9 100.0 Total 13.7 11.5 22.1 28.3 24.4 100.0
  27. 27. 27 Direct Impacts - Assumptions  All Damaged Basic Industry Buildings Repaired/Rebuilt  All Basic Industry Jobs and Associated Population Returns  All Homes with Mortgages are Repaired/Rebuilt and Associated Population Returns
  28. 28. 28 Direct Impacts - Assumptions, Continued  Half of Homes without Mortgages are Repaired/Rebuilt and Associated Population Returns  Recovery of Non-Basic Industry Jobs Determined by Regional Economic Models, Inc.  Recovery of Population Associated with Non-Basic Jobs Determined by Regional Economic Models, Inc.
  29. 29. 29 Total Impacts Direct Impacts + Indirect Impacts = Total Impacts
  30. 30. 30 North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - Jobs 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 JobsThousands w/o Hurricane South Track Hurricane North Track Hurricane South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011
  31. 31. 31 North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - Population 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 PersonsThousands w/o Hurricane South Track Hurricane North Track Hurricane South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011
  32. 32. 32 North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - County Government Revenue $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 $900 $950 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 RevenueMillions w/o Hurricane South Track Hurricane North Track Hurricane South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assistance Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011
  33. 33. 33 Conclusions  Basic Industry Jobs Return  Federal Assistance to Basic Industries Reduces Recovery Times  Non-basic Jobs Dependent on County Population
  34. 34. 34 Conclusions, Continued  Minimize Non-Basic Industry Job Loss by Retaining Population Federal Disaster and Debris Removal Assistance Provides Boost to Local Economy For 3 Years After Disaster, Little Impact Thereafter
  35. 35. 35 For More Information Study Available at www.ncfrpc.org or Contact Scott R. Koons, AICP, Executive Director, at koons@ncfrpc.org
  36. 36. 36 North Central Florida Regional Planning Council 2009 NW 67th Place Gainesville, FL 32653-1603 352.955.2200 www.ncfrpc.org
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