Lunchtime seminar babak

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  • Lunchtime seminar babak

    1. 1. Sustainable Flood Risk Management Babak Bozorgy HIPS Lunchtime Seminar, 23 Mar. 2008
    2. 2. Buzz words • Sustainability • Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)
    3. 3. Sustainability • Do what is needed now, but without compromising the needs of future generations • sustainability = trade-off o now versus future o economy versus environment
    4. 4. IWRM • Integration of: o surface water and groundwater o quantity and quality o ecological aspects o other fields: environmental planning, spatial planning, etc • from sectoral approach to holistic approach • process orientation + economics + institutions
    5. 5. Dublin principles - 1992 • Fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and environment • Water development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners and policy makers at all levels • Women play a central part in the provision, management and safeguarding of water • Water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognized as an economic good
    6. 6. Definition of IWRM Global Water Partnership (GWP), 2000: IWRM is a process which promotes the co- ordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximise the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems See: Tec 4 of GWP
    7. 7. natural system
    8. 8. impacts demandsnatural system socio-economic system
    9. 9. infrastructure impacts demands laws, regulations, management natural system institutional system socio-economic system
    10. 10. infrastructure impacts demands laws, regulations, management natural system institutional system socio-economic system integrated water resources management
    11. 11. Identify issues Evaluation Implementation Action planning Select alternative Design and assess alternative Analyse problems Content Awareness raising Mobilising actors Dialogue Link problems-solutions Negotiate contributions Fix commitment Express concerns Process
    12. 12. IWRM • IWRM is a learning process (steps, interaction) • IWRM = balancing of interests (functions) • To be applied at river basin level • Implementation is culture and situation dependent Learn from others, don’t copy !
    13. 13. The challenge of IWRM To strike a balance between the use of the resources as a basis for livelihood and the protection and conservation of the resource to sustain its functions and characteristics
    14. 14. Flood •Floods are the most common and destructive events among natural disasters •Flood events and their damages have been increased in the recent decades
    15. 15. Flood Management •So, traditional approaches of flood management have not been able to control the damages of floods and adoption of new approaches is essential. The need for new approaches of Sustainable Development, Risk Management and Resilience is emphasised in:
    16. 16. Flood Management •Earth Summit, UN Div. for S.D., Agenda 21, Rio, 1992 • Intl. Strategy for Disaster Reduction, UN, 2000 • World Summit on S.D. (WSSD), Johannesburg, 2003 •Intl. Decade for Action, Water for Life 2005-2015, UN G.A.
    17. 17. Traditional and new approaches to flood management Risk = event probability * consequences Flood Management
    18. 18. Traditional and new approaches to flood management Risk = event probability * consequences Traditional strategies = Resistant strategies = Flood control to reduce event probability with resistant measures such as dikes increased dikes height = increased confidence = increased economic development = increased risk Flood Management
    19. 19. Risk = event probability * consequences New strategies = Risk management strategies = Resilient strategies Introduced as one of the principles of Sustainable Development Flood Management
    20. 20. Resilience = Ability of a system to withstand disturbances by recovery Resistance = Ability of a system to withstand disturbances without any reaction Flood Management
    21. 21. Resilience in natural disasters is one of the elements of Sustainable Development Flood Management
    22. 22. IFM is a process that promotes an integrated, rather than fragmented, approach to flood management. It integrates land and water resources development in a river basin, within the context of IWRM, and aims to maximize the net benefit from floodplains and to minimize loss to life from flooding Ref.: Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM), GWP Integrated Flood Management (IFM)
    23. 23. •More Room for Rivers or Learning to Live With Floods •Landuse Planning •Green Rivers (Bypass Channels) •Compartments (Detention Ponds) •Flood Forecasting and Flood Warning •Evacuation Plans •Flood Insurance Resilient Strategies in Flood Management
    24. 24. Quantifying resilience by indicators •Amplitude • Expected Annual Damages (EAD) • Expected Annual Number of Casualties (EANC) Resilient Strategies in Flood Management ∫ = = )0( 10000/1 )( DP dPPPDEAD ∫ = = )0( 10000/1 )( DP dPPPCEANC
    25. 25. •Graduality Resilient Strategies in Flood Management GResis.=0 GResil.=0.91 GComb.=0.7
    26. 26. •Recovery Rate/Capacity Resilient Strategies in Flood Management
    27. 27. •Ranking the different flood risk management strategies and choosing the best/most resilient strategy is a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem which can be addressed by Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) techniques. This is also called Decision Support System (DSS) Multi-Criteria Decision Making
    28. 28. Gorgan River Basin, North-West Iran Case Study
    29. 29. Case Study Reach 2 – Urban Area Reach 1 – Rural Area
    30. 30. Flood Management Strategies: •Strategy #1: Natural Conditions •Strategy #2: Golestan Dam •Strategy #3: Dikes along the reaches •Strategy #4: Green Rivers •Strategy #5: Flood Warning System •Strategy #6: Flood Insurance •Strategy #6: Flood Warning System & Flood Insurance Case Study
    31. 31. Flood Inundation Modelling (Flood Mapping) •For all the strategies with 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 5000 and 1000 years return periods with MIKE FLOOD (Dynamic couple of MIKE 11 and MIKE 21) Case Study
    32. 32. Flood mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood Case Study
    33. 33. Flood Damage (EAD) Estimation and Mapping Case Study Flood damage mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood
    34. 34. Casualties (EANC) Estimation and Mapping Case Study Casualties mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood
    35. 35. Casualties (EANC) Estimation and Mapping Case Study Casualties mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood
    36. 36. Ranking of the strategies by MCDM Case Study Evaluation Matrix Decision Matrix
    37. 37. Case Study 2nd part
    38. 38. Thank you for your attention “No loss by flood and lightening, no destruction of cities and temples by the hostile forces of nature, has deprived man of so many noble lives and impulses as those which his intolerance has destroyed” Helen Keller
    39. 39. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
    40. 40. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies •15th largest city in the world in terms of population (Ref.: Wikipedia) (8-12 mill.) •700 km2 •>800m difference in altitude in urban area •>2500m difference in altitude in the catchment area •Very steep slope in North-South direction •Very mild slope in East-West direction
    41. 41. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
    42. 42. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
    43. 43. Niayesh Highway – Sepah Complex (7th March 2005)JWRC April 2005
    44. 44. Farahzad St. (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
    45. 45. Farahzad St. (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
    46. 46. Sazman-e-Ab St. (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
    47. 47. Farahzad Water Way (7th March 2005)JWRC April 2005
    48. 48. Azari T- Junction (7th March 2005)JWRC April 2005
    49. 49. Tappeh Neyzar Channel (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
    50. 50. Tappeh Neyzar Channel (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
    51. 51. West Flood Diversion Channel (7th March 2005) Farahzad River Diversion Channel JWRC April 2005
    52. 52. Niayesh Highway (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
    53. 53. Niayesh Highway (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
    54. 54. Niayesh Highway (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
    55. 55. Yadegar Highway (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
    56. 56. Yadegar Highway (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
    57. 57. JWRC April 2005 Resalat Highway
    58. 58. Velenjak River Velenjak River – Moqaddas Ardebili Cross Velenjak River – Sediment Detention Basin Velenjak River – Downstream of Sediment Detention Basin JWRC April 2005
    59. 59. Velenjak River – Between Moqaddas Ardebili and Chamran Highway Velenjak River – Nil St. Velenjak River – MIrdamad Cross Velenjak River – Entrance to the Diversion Tunnel JWRC April 2005
    60. 60. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies 4 5 2 1 22 3 21 6 9 18 7 15 8 20 16 14 13 1211 19 17 10N EW S Regions of Tehran Flood ways of Tehran 3 0 3 6 9 Kilometers 510000 510000 515000 515000 520000 520000 525000 525000 530000 530000 535000 535000 540000 540000 545000 545000 550000 550000 555000 555000 3935000 3935000 3940000 3940000 3945000 3945000 3950000 3950000 3955000 3955000 3960000 3960000 3965000 3965000
    61. 61. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies Drainage System (North and East)Drainage System
    62. 62. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies N EW S 526000 526000 528000 528000 530000 530000 532000 532000 534000 534000 536000 536000 538000 538000 540000 540000 542000 542000 3954000 3954000 3956000 3956000 3958000 3958000 3960000 3960000 3962000 3962000 3964000 3964000 3966000 3966000 3968000 3968000 3970000 3970000 3972000 3972000 City Boundary U/S Basins Lower than 1200 m 1200 - 1500 m 1500 - 1800 m 1800 - 2100 m 2100 - 2400 m 2400 - 2700 m 2700 - 3000 m 3000 - 3300 m 3300 - 3600 m Upper than 3600 m No Data Basin Boundary Buildings 4 0 4 8 12 Kilometers
    63. 63. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies 4 5 2 1 22 3 21 6 9 18 7 15 8 20 16 14 13 1211 19 17 10 N EW S 526000 526000 528000 528000 530000 530000 532000 532000 534000 534000 536000 536000 538000 538000 540000 540000 542000 542000 3954000 3954000 3956000 3956000 3958000 3958000 3960000 3960000 3962000 3962000 3964000 3964000 3966000 3966000 3968000 3968000 3970000 3970000 3972000 3972000 Slope of Tehran 0 - 1 % 1 - 5 % 5 - 10 % 10 - 15 % 15 - 20 % 20 - 30 % 30 - 40 40 - 50 % Upper than 50 % No Data Regions of Tehran 6 0 6 12 18 Kilometers
    64. 64. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
    65. 65. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
    66. 66. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
    67. 67. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
    68. 68. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies N EW S Basin Area Lower than 1200 m 1200 - 1500 m 1500 - 1800 m 1800 - 2100 m 2100 - 2400 m 2400 - 2700 m 2700 - 3000 m 3000 - 3300 m 3300 - 3600 m Upper than 3600 m No Data Buildings 100 Year Flood Plain Flloodways 2 0 2 4 6 8 Kilometers 518000 520000 522000 524000 526000 528000 530000 532000 534000 3942000 3942000 3944000 3944000 3946000 3946000 3948000 3948000 3950000 3950000 3952000 3952000 3954000 3954000 3956000 3956000 3958000 3958000 3960000 3960000 3962000 3962000 3964000 3964000 3966000 3966000 396 8000
    69. 69. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
    70. 70. Thank you for your attention “No loss by flood and lightening, no destruction of cities and temples by the hostile forces of nature, has deprived man of so many noble lives and impulses as those which his intolerance has destroyed” Helen Keller

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