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Strategic analysis in chaotic times

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  • 1. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Navneet Bhushan (navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com) Crafitti Consulting (www.crafitti.com) at ISSA, DRDO, Delhi August 06, 2013
  • 2. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 2© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 3. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Black Swan – The impact of the highly improbable • “I cannot accept a pretense of science. I much prefer a sophisticated craft, focused on tricks, to a failed science looking for certainties” Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • 4. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 4© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. China is pursuing Deng’s reforms of 1978. • The Deng reforms very clearly articulate the “superpower” phase that China has entered since the start of this century. A new type of Superpower is the design. • To fulfill the Superpower by 2050 dream, China will require secure, fast and wide access to Africa because of the natural resources – untapped. • Also, China will need access to markets in other part of world. Karakoram highway is already open to China. China will need to build fast goods trains from Karachi, Gwadar and Pasni to Karakoram. It will also require the land transport to be safe and secure. By 2022 China has to achieve that. • China’s Superpower design is at stake. DENG XIOPING’s CHINA -DESIGN FOR A NEW TYPE OF SUPER POWER
  • 5. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 5© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. WHITE PAPER ON CHINA’s ARMED FORCES!!! APRIL 2013
  • 6. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 6© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. WHITE PAPER ON CHINA’s ARMED FORCES!!! APRIL 2013 The PLAArmy (PLAA) is composed of mobile operational units, border and coastal defense units, guard and garrison units, and is primarily responsible for military operations on land. The PLAA mobile operational units include 18 combined corps, plus additional independent combined operational divisions (brigades), and have a total strength of 850,000. The combined corps, composed of divisions and brigades, are respectively under the seven military area commands (MACs): Shenyang (16th, 39th and 40th Combined Corps), Beijing (27th, 38th and 65th Combined Corps), Lanzhou (21st and 47th Combined Corps), Jinan (20th, 26th and 54th Combined Corps), Nanjing (1st, 12th and 31st Combined Corps), Guangzhou (41st and 42nd Combined Corps) and Chengdu (13th and 14th Combined Corps). Currently, the PLAN has a total strength of 235,000 officers and men, and commands three fleets, namely, the Beihai Fleet, the Donghai Fleet and the Nanhai Fleet. Each fleet has fleet aviation headquarters, support bases, flotillas and maritime garrison commands, as well as aviation divisions and marine brigades. In September 2012, China's first aircraft carrier Liaoning was commissioned into the PLAN. China's development of an aircraft carrier has a profound impact on building a strong PLAN and safeguarding maritime security. The PLAAF now has a total strength of 398,000 officers and men, and an air command in each of the seven Military Area Commands (MACs) of Shenyang, Beijing, Lanzhou, Jinan, Nanjing, Guangzhou and Chengdu. In addition, it commands one airborne corps. Under each air command are bases, aviation divisions (brigades), ground-to-air missile divisions (brigades), radar brigades and other units.
  • 7. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 7© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. Carrying out Scenario-based Exercises and Drills The PLA takes scenario-based exercises and drills as the basic means to accelerate the transition in military training and raise combat capabilities. It widely practices in training such operational concepts in conditions of informationization as information dominance, confrontation between different systems, precision strike, fusion, integration and jointness. It organizes training based on real combat needs, formations and procedures. It pays special attention to confrontational command training, live independent force-on-force training and training in complex battlefield environments. Thus, the warfighting capabilities based on information systems have been thoroughly improved. WHITE PAPER ON CHINA’s ARMED FORCES!!! APRIL 2013
  • 8. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 8© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.  Reactive Approach – the traditional Indian Strategic approach – is a recipe for disaster  Comprehensive Integrated Strategic Response – is needed  STEEPV scanning for creating multiple futuristic Scenarios is needed  In the multiple Scenarios created – alternative doctrinal concepts and Strategies need to be played out  These integrated global analytical models, simulations and gaming should become the basis of creating new responses, capabilities and doctrine
  • 9. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 9© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 10. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r © CRAFITTI CONSULTING A Weakening of Hierarchies • Information abundance permits INDIVIDUALS to by- pass hierarchies that have – deliberately or inadvertently – controlled or limited information • Alternative human organization forms – based mainly on the Network have proved more effective and efficient for transacting information than hierarchies. • In Information intensive enterprises, hierarchical organizations may not be competitive with networks. IN ATHENA’s CAMP – Preparing for conflict in the Information Age, (Ed) Arquilla J. and Ronfeldt D, RAND, 1997
  • 11. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r © INFORMATION WE HAVE JUST STARTED TO LEARN WHAT IS INFORMATI ON Information was initially viewed as being about a message and/or a medium. A new idea emerged where some information is being regarded as material – as lying at the core of all existence, where it may be as fundamental as matter and energy. These concepts are under a slightly clichéd title of Information Physics. However, they are powerful concepts. If matter and energy are convertible physical entities, Information can create both matter and energy in a broader sense of the words. Thus an Informed actor is likely to create something tangible (matter or energy).
  • 12. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r © WE HAVE JUST STARTED TO LEARN WHAT IS INFORMATI ON The universal tendency of organizations is towards breakdown and randomization, i.e., Entropy. All living systems must counter this Entropy, through processing of matter and energy. These processes require information. The view has developed that everything is information. LIFE IS COMPUTATION! (In a broader sense) INFORMATION
  • 13. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 13© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 14. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 14© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 15. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 15© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 16. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 16© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. Law of Increasing Intelligence of Technical Systems Technical Systems are evolving into Higher and Higher intelligence
  • 17. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 17© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 18. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 18© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 19. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Combat Fight/Duel/Conflict/Battle/War/World War/Armageddon Modelling Representing a system and its internal and/or external dynamics in such a form (may be mathematical) that information about its behaviour can be extracted or studied
  • 20. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Parameters and Processes of Combat • Two Sides • Search • Detection • Identification • Acquisition • Tracking • Weapon Target Assignment • Weapon Aiming and Firing • Attrition • Command and Control • Damage Assessment • Strategic and Tactical Movement • Influence of Technology
  • 21. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Nature of Combat and Combat Models Past : Numerical Strength is Combat Power/ Attrition Based Modelling: Lanchester Equations Based and Fire Power Scores in QJMA Present: Technology Based Platform-Centric Revolution in Military Affairs Modelling: Weapon Power Scores in Extended Adaptive Dynamic Model Future: Integrated Comprehensive Warfare Modelling: Exploring New Models – Intelligent Weapon Power Scores
  • 22. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Approaches to Combat Modelling Analytical Methods • Lanchester Equations • Adaptive Dynamic Model Firepower Scores • QJMA • WEI • Weapon Power Scores Simulation • Combat Simulations • Wargames New Approaches • Cellular Automata • Petri Nets • Artificial Life • Particle Swarm Optimization
  • 23. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Rand Report MG 268 (http://www.rand.org) May 30, 2014 23© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. More than 12000 Sorties flown in mid 1990s to compare JTIDS datalink 16 system with conventional voice only communications 250% IMPROVEMENT IN Kill Ratio
  • 24. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 24© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 25. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r The Past
  • 26. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Combat • Duels • LOS Fire • Attrition Based Warfare • Numerical Strength Important (the 3:1 Rule) To make a Brigade of 4000 troops ineffective, one needs to destroy atleast 33% to 50% of its troops using a Division of about 15000 troops
  • 27. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Combat Models: Past • Coupled Differential Equations incorporating the rate at which both sides destroy each other’s numerical strengths • Quantified Judgement Method of Analysis based on Empirical Formulae developed using Historical Combat Data of Past Wars (T.N. Dupuy)
  • 28. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r The Present
  • 29. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Influence of Technology on War/Combat Information Technology C4ISR IW/EW/SEW PGMs ILSS Knowledge Processing Intelligence Analysis Tactical and Strategic Planning Automated/Rapid Military Decision Making Telecom & Networking Communications NetWar/CyberWar Mobile Comm Lethality Mass Destruction to Selective/Precise & Effective Destruction
  • 30. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r COLLECT & PROCESS BATTLEFIELD INFORMATION WITH SPEED AND ACCURACY CAPABILITY TO PICK OUT TARGETS IN A DYNAMIC BATTLE SCENARIO ABILITY TO DESTROY TARGETS WITH PRECISION FROM GREATER RANGES HEART OF REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS (RMA) INTERACTION ABILITY TO SEE / CHOOSE TARGETS BETTER INCREASES THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS
  • 31. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r The Future
  • 32. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Network Centric Warfare Network is the Computer Fundamental Shift from Platform Centric warfare to Network Centric Warfare Characterized by: Very High Level of Shared Battlespace Awareness Shared Knowledge of Commanders Intent Self-Sync, Speed of Command, and rapid lock- out
  • 33. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Network Centric Warfare: Sources of Increased Combat Power Shared Battlespace Awareness Increased Battlespace Awareness Battlespace Expansion: Employment of Weapons at Max Range Increased Survivability Self-Synchronization of Forces Reduced Collateral Damage Virtual Collaboration: Moving Information not people
  • 34. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Modelling and Analysis of Advanced Technologies and Combat Support Systems in Combat between RMA Forces The Present
  • 35. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Evaluation of Weapon Power Scores of Army, Navy and Air Force Weapons Combat Support System (CSS) Capability Assessment Combat Outcomes CSS Weights based on AHP Force Multiplier related to CSSEstimation of Quantity of Weapons Force Strength Evaluation Generation of Combat Scenarios Modified Adaptive Dynamic Model Estimation of Model Parameters OLD M E T H O D O L O G Y 1998-2000
  • 36. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Weapon Power Score Self Protection Index Integration IndexLethality Operability Index On-Board Weapons Capability On- Board Self Defence Capability Night / All Weather Capability Ability to get connected to C3I System Each Combat Node in the Network
  • 37. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r = Operational Lethality Index (OLI) x (1+ Self-Protection Index (SPI)) x (1 + Operability Index (OI)) x (1 + Integration Index (II)) Weapon Power Score (WPS) Force Strength (FS) = Summation of product of WPS and Quantity of weapons in a force Force Potential (FP) = Force Strength x (1 + Combat Support System Effectiveness Factor)
  • 38. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Factors considered for OLI Computations Weapons Factors Infantry Small Arms and Non Mobile Weapons Rate of Fire, Range, Accuracy, Reliability, and Potential Targets per Strike, Dispersion Factor Arty Towed/AD Guns All of the above and certain Artillery related factors Arty Self-Propelled All of the above and Mobility factors. Armour, Ships, Submarines OLI of on-board Guns and Missiles, Mobility factor Punishment factor, Ammunition factor, Amphibious capability factor etc., Attack Helicopter, Aircraft OLI of on-board Guns, Missiles, Ceiling factor Mobility factor,
  • 39. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II of Army Platforms Weapon System Factors Affecting SPI IIOI Infantry Survivability Night Vision, Transportability Communication Links with Brigade. HQ. and RPV/UAV Armor Built-in-Armor, Reactive Armor, Top Attack Protection NBC Protection, Fire & Explosion Suppression, Silhouette, Agility Night Vision, All Weather Operations, fording, Amphibious Capability, Air droppable Communication Links with RPV/UAV and other Armor Vehicles. Artillery Guns Shoot & Scoot Capability, Stand Off Range, Armored Protection All weather Operability, NBC Operability. Integration with AOP AD Arty/ SAM Shoot & Scoot Capability, Stand Off Range Radar Control, NBC Environment Integration with C2 system
  • 40. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II of Air force Weapons Weapon System Factors Affecting SPI OI II Close Air Support / Attack Helo Deep Strike Air Defense Chaff, ECM, ESM, Multi Mode Radar, Precision Guided Munitions All of the above and Inertial Navigation System All of the above and Look Down/Look Up Radar Night Flight, Night Time Delivery, All Weather Operation Inter Aircraft & Ground Station Communicati on
  • 41. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II of Naval Platforms Weapon System Factors Affecting SPI IIOI Battle Ships Intensity of Threats faced, Ability to detect threatening Platform, Protection to Evade hit, Protection to Evade Kill given hit, Ability to Jam/Confuse Enemy Platform Shallow Water/ High Seas Operability Communication Links with Shore, with Maritime Aircraft, with Sub Marine force, with other Ships. Submarine Communication Links with Shore, Maritime Aircraft, Own Submarine force.
  • 42. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Combat Support Systems (CSS) Intelligence Surveillance & Reconnaissance(ISR) C4 Information Warfare Logistics Support System • Space based • Airborne • Sea Based • Ground Based • Command and Control • Communications • Computers • System Integration • EW • Opsec • Psyops • Deception • Lethal IW • Non lethal IW • Encryption • SW Engg • Networking • Computer Security • Info Security Infrastructure Resources Material Management National Resources Inter-service Integration
  • 43. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 43© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. IW ILSS Space Air Sea Gnd Cmd & Control Communications Computers System Integration ISR C4
  • 44. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 44© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. I1 I2 I3 I4 C1 C2 C3 C4 W L Space based ISR (I1) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 Airborne ISR (I2) 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 ISR Sea based ISR (I3) 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 Gnd based ISR (I4) 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 Cmd and Control (C1) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 C4 Communications (C2) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Computers (C3) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 System Integration (C4) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IW (W) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ILSS (L) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 I1 I2 I3 I4 C1 C2 C3 C4 W L Space based ISR (I1) 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 Air ISR (I2) 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 ISR Sea based ISR (I3) 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 Gnd based ISR (I4) 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 Cmd and Control (C1) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 C4 Communications (C2) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 Computers (C3) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 System Integration (C4) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 IW (W) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 ILSS (L) 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
  • 45. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 45© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. Combat Support Systems Combat Support System Dependency Indices (Di) Combat Synergy Indices (Si) Sub System Activity Index Ai =(Di) X (Si) CSS Normalised Weights (Wi) Order of Ranking Space based ISR 0.064 0.083 0.00531 0.0598 VIII Air based ISR 0.096 0.070 0.672 0.0757 IV Sea based ISR 0.115 0.047 0.00541 0.0609 VI Gnd based ISR 0.096 0.070 0.00672 0.0757 IV Cmd and Control 0.165 0.033 0.00545 0.0614 V Communications 0.054 0.165 0.00891 0.1004 III Computers 0.054 0.165 0.00891 0.1004 III System Integration 0.076 0.165 0.01254 0.1413 II IW 0.142 0.165 0.2343 0.2639 I ILSS 0.138 0.039 0.00538 0.0606 VII
  • 46. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 46© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. ISR C4 Space Based Air Based Sea Based Ground Based Command and Control Communications Computers System Integration IW ILSS Country A Country B Country C
  • 47. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 47© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. CSS Factors ISR Space based ISR Communications Satellites, Navigation Satellites, Meterological Satellites, Imaging Reconnaissance Satellites, Relay Satellites Air baser ISR AWACS/AEW, Air based Ground Tactical Reconnaissance, Maritime Reconnaissance, Airborne Ground Strategic Reconnaissance, Airborne Battlefield Surveillance Capability (UAV/RPV capability) Sea based ISR Surface Tactical Recce, Sub-surface Tactical Recce, Strategic Recce, Coast based Strategic Recce Ground based ISR Tactical Recce, Air Space Recce, Strategic Recce C4 Command and Control Strategic C2, Tactical C2, Politics Military C2, Inter Services Integration Communications Utilization of EM Spectrum, Communication System, Communication Security, Merger with National Telecom System Computers Computing Power, Software capability, Knowledge processing and Automated Decision Making Capability System Integration Data Fusion, National Level Interoperability, Inter Services Operability, Integration of ISR, C2, ILSS with Lethal System, Fault Tolerant Communication / Computing, Interoperability Standards Information Warfare (IW) Operations Security, Psychological Operations, EW, Deception Lethal IW, Non Lethal IW, Cryptology, Computer Security, Info Security, Intelligence ILSS Armed Forces Resources, Logistics Infrastructure, Material Management, National Resources, Inter Service Integration
  • 48. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Modified Adaptive Dynamic Model (MADM) • Off shoot of Lanchester Models • J.M. Epstein • Use of Exchange Ratio and Prosecution Rate • Parameters reflecting ability to concentrate fire in engagements • Uses Force strength instead of Numerical Strength • Withdrawal and reinforcements • Close Air Support to Ground Forces Extensions • Air to Air Combat • Naval Combat including sub surface • use of Weapon Power Scores instead of WEI for Force Strength • Estimation of parameters based on realistic data
  • 49. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r • Initial Force Strengths of the Forces • Force Strength Reinforcement on each day • Force Strength Attrition Rate • Exchange Ratio • Threshold Attrition Rates • Number of Close Air Support (CAS) Aircraft • CAS daily Sortie rate per Aircraft • CAS aircraft Attrition rate per sortie • Battle termination Conditions Force Strength loss and Aircraft Attrition per day OUTPUT INPUT Modified Adaptive Dynamic Model
  • 50. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r SIDE A SIDE B Ground Forces Ground Forces CAS Forces CAS Forces AD Fighters AD Fighters AD Escorts AD Escorts
  • 51. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Test Scenario – Country A Strike Corps attacking Country B holding forces Force with Country A Force with Country B 1 Armoured Division 2 Infantry Division 1 Independent Armoured Brigade 3 Independent Armoured Brigades 3 Infantry Divisions 1 Armoured Regiment
  • 52. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Total FS available (x1000) Country A 1 Armoured Division + 3 Infantry Division + 1 Independent Armed Bde = 910.6 + 3 x 184.5 + 359.9 = 1824 Country B 2 Infantry Division + 3 Independent Armed Bde + 2 Armoured Regiments = 2 x 152.3 + 3 x 266.2 + 88.7 = 1191.9 Force Strength Ratio (FSR (A/B)) = 1.53
  • 53. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Mobilizations Schedule Ith Day Country A (Attacker) Country B (Defender) Force FS (x1000) Force FS (x1000) 1 2 Infantry Division = 2 x 184.5 369 2 Infantry Bde + 1 Integral Armed Regt = 2 x 1/3 x 152.3 + 1/3 x 266.2 190.3 2 2 Armed Bdes = 2 x 359.9 719.8 2 Armed Bde + 1 Inf. Bde = 2 x 266.2 + 1/3 x 152.3 = 532.4 + 50.8 583.2 3 Armoured division - Armoured Bde = 910.6 - 359.9 550.7 1 Armed Bde = 266.2 266.2 4 Infantry Division 184.4 1 Infantry Division 152.3
  • 54. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Results of Test Scenario o=2.0 a = d = 0.035 Day FS attacker (remaining ) FS defen der (remai ning) Thresho ld attacker Thresh old defend er FSR 1 369.00 193.10 184.50 127.50 1.9390 2 1041.16 583.56 520.58 390.99 1.7842 3 1527.58 675.61 763.79 452.66 2.2610 4 1613.37 656.90 806.69 440.12 2.4561 5 1501.68 496.89 806.69 440.12 3.0221 6 1395.64 354.74 806.69 440.12 3.9343
  • 55. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Performance Index ATK (A) DEF (B) TFS (a) 1823.9 1192 RFS (b) 1395.64 354.74 FSL(a-b) 428.26 837.26 FSL/TFS (X) 0.235 0.70 PI = X(B)/X(A) 0.70/0.235 = 2.99
  • 56. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r The NEED and Proposed Approaches
  • 57. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Intelligent Weapon Power Score Self Protection Index Integration IndexLethality Operability Index On-Board Weapons Capability On- Board Self Defence Capability Night / All Weather Capability Ability to get connected to C3I System Information processing Foresight and Learning Decision Making
  • 58. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Network Centric Operations NCO is a theory which proposes that the application of information age concepts to speed communications and increase situational awareness through networking improves both the efficiency and effectiveness of military operations. May 30, 2014 58© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 59. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Taxonomy of Network Centric Warfare Architectures ©59 Architecture Characteristics A. Centralized One central high value Hub – other low value nodes networked and controlled by Hub B. Hub-Request “Type E” Request based plus one or more central high value hubs C. Hub-Swarm “Type G” Swarming plus one of more central high value hubs D. Joint Mixture of other six types (Type A, Type B, Type C, Type E, Type F and Type G) E. Request-Based Nodes of same value, but with different specialized capabilities. Request for service between nodes of different kinds F. Mixed Mixture of “Request-Based” and “Swarming” F1: Limited Types Small number of node types (includes the case of separate sensor, engagement, and C2 grids” F2: Commonality Nodes are different, but have significant commonality G. Swarming Nodes identical or nearly so G1: Emergent Swarming Nodes follow simple rules, like insects G2: Situationally Aware Swarming Nodes share information to build up Situational Awareness picture G2(a): Orchestrated One node is a temporary “leader” G2(b): Hierarchical Nodes are arranged in a Hierarchy G2(c): Distributed No Leader or Hierarchy
  • 60. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r The Fifth C in C5ISR Comprehensive Integrated Warfare – A Revolution in Search of Doctrine Weapons + C4ISR ≠ C5ISR May 30, 2014 60© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 61. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Comprehensive Integrated Military Doctrine Military Doctrine is defined as a comprehensive system of views and procedures for conduct of future wars including various military operations, established by military experts, technologists and armed forces, in the likely threat environment, and within the purview of present force structures. The doctrine is subject to periodic reviews and analysis and is evolved taking into account the dynamic geo-political, economic and technological trends in the world scenarios. Also such a doctrine should be freely available as a comprehensive document, so as to give a common basis for decision making at all level of military and defense hierarchy of the nation. May 30, 2014 61© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 62. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r National Security Doctrines May 30, 2014 62© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. Doctrines Domain Aim(s) 1. POLITICAL DOCTRINE  International Relations  Foreign Policy  Diplomacy  Politics  How to Avoid war  If imposed, how to support war 2. MILITARY DOCTRINE  Army  Navy  Air Force  Space Force  Joint Operations  How to wage war 3. ECONOMIC DOCTRINE  Economic Policy  Industrial Policy  How to support and sustain war 4. INTELLIGENCE DOCTRINE  Intelligence Agencies  Analysis Agencies  How to collect, process and disseminate information for timely decision making 5. WMD DOCTRINE  NBC Policy  Peaceful Nuclear Uses  How to deal with enemy’s WMDs and deploy own WMD 6. SPACE DOCTRINE  Space Plans  Communication, Reconnaissance & Spy Satellites  Launch Vehicles  How to support (1) - (5) by providing near real time information to analysts 7. CYBERPACE/ INFORMATION WARFARE DOCTRINE  Cyber Space  Audio Visual & print Media  Propaganda  Propaganda in cyberspace  Counter enemy propaganda
  • 63. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 63© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. Anti ISR Attack Anti C4 Attack Anti EW Attack Anti ILS Attack Strategic Attack Attack against enemy Mobile Unit Attack Levels Border FWD Deployed Highly Mobile smaller Units (screen force) Airborne Surveillance Systems Automated PG Long Range Missile Mobile C4 ISR Centre Enemy Fig. 3. Future Doctrine (Highly Non-Linear) Mobile Armoured Units The Changing Battlefield – to Non-Linear Battlefield ….
  • 64. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Comprehensive Integrated Warfare Doctrine has to be based on Swarming and Spiral Swarming Swarming is achieved when the dispersed nodes of a network of small (and also perhaps some large) forces can converge on an enemy from multiple directions, through either fire or maneuver. The overall aim should be sustained pulsing - Swarm networks must be able to coalesce rapidly and stealthily on a target, then disserve and re-disperse, immediately ready to recombine for a new pulse. May 30, 2014 64© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. To defeat an already networked force – which acts through swarming – we need to develop very complex Spiral Swarms – Swarming the Swarms Doctrine Doctrine of Spiral Swarms
  • 65. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r WORLD – WHAT IS YOUR MODEL? Scenario Writing: Description of future possible situations and sequences of events, primarily with the intention of stimulating reflections on possible problems and secondly to anticipate future developments.
  • 66. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r STEEPV • SOCIAL factors affecting the area • TECHNOLOGICAL factors affecting the area • ECONOMIC factors affecting the area • ECOLOGICAL factors affecting the area • POLITICAL/GEO-POLITICAL factors affecting the area • HUMAN VALUES affecting the areas© Crafitti Consulting Private Limited66
  • 67. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r China Takes Pakistan – A Scenario by 2017-2022 Scenario: Pakistan supported, penetrated and engulfed by China - 2017-2022 timeframe The process of Chinese support to Pakistan is an ongoing process. Since 2010, China has 11000 soldiers in POK. This is close to 2+ Infantry brigades equivalent strength. Chinese are involved in building the Gwadar port – a very strategic conduit to middle-east and of course to Africa as well. Besides, China has been providing arms and ammunition to Pakistan Military forces for many decades now. Chinese are in. They are considered the thick friends by Pakistani Military. • USA is a declining superpower. • China is pursuing Deng’s reforms of 1978. The Deng reforms very clearly articulate the “superpower” phase that China has entered since the start of this century. • Pakistan is failing if not already a failed state. Living under drones 24x7 has made many Pak-Afghan areas border residents anti-US. The people also may be shifting towards Chinese, thinking of China to be their long-term savior. May 30, 2014 67© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
  • 68. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Comprehensive Integrated Evolution of Scenarios • SEMINAR GAMING • PLAYING THE SEMINAR GAME • ANALYZING THE GAMES • CREATING STRATEGIC INSIGHTS • DEVELOPING THESE INSIGHTS INTO CAPABILITIES May 30, 2014 68© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. HAVE WE PLAYED ANY OF THE WARGAME THAT WE DEVELOPED? ARE THERE ANY INSIGHTS, IF WE HAVE PLAYED THESE GAMES?
  • 69. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r • Germans created Blitzkrieg in WW II. A combination of Panzer armored divisions with air power. The world saw the implementation of synergy of two different dimensions of warfare. • The Air-Land battle doctrine was the conceptual construct on which US created Operation Desert Storm in 1991 against Iraq. It was an unprecedented success with almost 2 months of continuous air-operations before starting the armor action. After the initial elimination of Iraqi ability to see and observe through various technological capabilities, the B52s continuously dropped iron bombs that led to very swift ground action and complete subjugation of larger Iraqi forces. • Although it was not exactly the evolution of Blitzkrieg that Germans did with their Panzers in WW II, nevertheless, the world saw the power of synergy of multiple warfare dimensions. What are the key lessons that a country like India can take from these? May 30, 2014 69© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. Needed: Air-Mountain Warfare Doctrine for India
  • 70. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 70© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. Needed: Air-Mountain Warfare Doctrine for India India faces two very hostile foes in Pakistan and China. The military problem is that the borders with both these countries are very different. For example, against Pakistan the armour based operations are possible although the line of sight in plains of Punjab may be less than 800m, yet tanks have fairly open space to make deep inroads. Desert with more than 1000 m line of sight and large open space is definitely a tank warfare arena. It is really against China, India faces a very different terrain. The tank operations in mountains are extremely difficult and in fact likely to be useless as tanks may become sitting ducks when their mobility is either not possible or at best reduced considerably. The infantry becomes the key force for the army. The next dimension of warfare – that is the air is available to create a possible synergy to create military capability and operations that are more potent and efficient. The nature of war against Pak and against China will be different - hence what will be an armor based war with Pak, will have to be infantry/mountain + air war against China. Do we have a doctrine for Air- Mountain Battle doctrine?
  • 71. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r May 30, 2014 71© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. Needed: Air-Mountain Warfare Doctrine for India The Air-land battle doctrine employed in Iraq by US was developed in 1980s - the conceptual constructs of that doctrine. Where are conceptual constructs of India's Air-Mountain battle doctrine? It is time to debate and create the conceptual constructs of such a uniquely Indian doctrine? The current acquisition of C130s and C17s indicates some thoughts on Air mobility and theater switching of brigade size forces. However, it is very late in the game. Following Sun Tzu - why we should fight the Chinese war, instead we should create the scenarios and reactions where we should be taking initiatives against China and Pakistan, not reacting to their strategic surprises. In summary, we need to create an integrated Air-Mountain Warfare doctrine. This then should also integrate Space dimension, Cyber dimension and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) dimensions against China.
  • 72. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Crafitti Consulting Crafting innovation together . . . www.crafitti.com Navneet Bhushan (navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com) +91 9902766961 72